证券研究报告 2026 年 1 月 23 日 星期五 【下周策略】 ◆本周走势回顾 本周指数震荡走强，沪指企稳 4100 点。从周 K 线来看，上证指 数上涨 0.84%，深证成指上涨 1.11%，创业板指下跌 0.34%，科创 50 指数上涨 2.62%，北证 50 指数上涨 2.60%。个股板块涨多跌少，建 筑材料、石油石化、钢铁和基础化工等板块涨幅靠前，医药生物、 食品饮料、非银金融、通信和银行等板块跌幅靠前。 ◆下周大势研判：震荡巩固，春季行情有望延续 从本周市场来看： ◆风险提示： 海外经济超预期下滑，以及中美贸易摩擦超预期恶化，导致外 需回落，国内出口承压；全球主要经济体超预期延长加息周期，高 利率环境使全球经济增速明显放缓，压缩国内资金面；海外信用收 缩引发风险事件，对市场流动性造成冲击，干扰利率和汇率走势。 | 市场近一周走势 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 指数名称 | | 周收盘(点) | 涨跌幅 | | 上证指数 | | 4136.16 | 0.84% | | 深证成指 | | 14439.66 | 1.11% | | 创业板 | | 3349.5 ...

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4136.16 points, up 0.33%, with a trading volume of 1.3369 trillion yuan. The Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.79% to 14439.66 points, with a trading volume of 1.7484 trillion yuan. The ChiNext Index increased by 0.63% to 3349.50 points, with a trading volume of 822.63 billion yuan. The STAR Market 50 Index closed at 1553.71 points, up 0.78%, with a trading volume of 110.8 billion yuan. The total trading volume of both markets was 3.0853 trillion yuan, an increase of 393.5 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [1]. Sector Performance - The market saw more sectors gaining than losing, with notable increases in power equipment, non-ferrous metals, precious metals, defense and military, steel, media, computer, environmental protection, and textile and apparel sectors. Concepts such as perovskite batteries, commercial aerospace, satellite internet, sapphire, lithium mining, cultivated diamonds, small metals, gold, and interactive short dramas were particularly active. In contrast, sectors like communication, insurance, banking, coal, and home appliances experienced declines [1]. Individual Stock Performance - A total of 3707 stocks rose, while 1336 stocks fell, with 134 stocks remaining flat and 6 stocks suspended. Excluding newly listed stocks, there were 120 stocks hitting the daily limit up and 2 stocks hitting the limit down [2]. - Among the stocks that hit the daily limit up, 23 stocks had consecutive limit-up days of 2 or more, with Fenglong Co., Ltd. leading with 18 consecutive limit-ups [3]. Capital Flow - The net capital outflow from the two markets was 4.167 billion yuan, with the ChiNext seeing a net inflow of 1.515 billion yuan. The CSI 300 index experienced a net outflow of 1.005 billion yuan, while the STAR Market saw a net outflow of 3.171 billion yuan. Out of 31 sectors, 13 sectors had net capital inflows, with the power equipment sector leading with a net inflow of 8.977 billion yuan [4][6]. - The top sectors with net inflows included non-ferrous metals (4.552 billion yuan), media (2.173 billion yuan), and defense and military (2.157 billion yuan). Conversely, the communication sector had the highest net outflow of 7.992 billion yuan, followed by electronics (6.350 billion yuan) and machinery (5.077 billion yuan) [4][6]. Notable Stocks - 191 stocks had net capital inflows exceeding 1 billion yuan, with Jin Feng Technology receiving the highest net inflow of 1.861 billion yuan. Other notable stocks included Lens Technology (1.594 billion yuan), Qian Zhao Optoelectronics (1.267 billion yuan), and Xian Dao Intelligent (1.217 billion yuan) [7][8]. - Conversely, 116 stocks experienced net capital outflows exceeding 1 billion yuan, with Xin Yi Sheng leading with a net outflow of 3.471 billion yuan, followed by Zhong Ji Xu Chuang (3.103 billion yuan) and Li Ou Shares (2.604 billion yuan) [10][11]. Institutional Activity - Institutional investors had a net selling of approximately 1.02 billion yuan, with 22 stocks seeing net purchases and 14 stocks net sales. Jin Feng Technology was the most purchased stock by institutions, with a net purchase amount of approximately 266 million yuan [13][14].

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market shows a significant rebound in risk appetite, with 122 stocks hitting the daily limit on January 23, driven by themes such as commercial aerospace, new energy, and non-ferrous metals [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The market structure exhibits a combination of "theme-driven" and "low-level rebound" characteristics, indicating a diverse range of investment interests [1] - The commercial aerospace sector emerged as the strongest emotional trigger, particularly following news of SpaceX's plans for a second-generation Starlink system, which sparked interest in related A-share stocks [1] - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes the "aerospace information industry" as a strategic emerging industry, with potential supportive policies expected by 2026 [1] Group 2: Sector Performance - The new energy vehicle supply chain remains active, with stocks like Fenglong Co. experiencing multiple daily limits, reflecting ongoing investment in post-cycle manufacturing segments [1] - The perovskite battery and semiconductor materials are identified as core themes in technology, with companies like Woge Optoelectronics and Jianghua Microelectronics showing strong performance amid expectations for recovery in AI computing and consumer electronics [1] - In the non-ferrous metals and resources sector, Sichuan Gold and Silver Nonferrous Metals have shown strong emotional benchmarks, driven by historical highs in international gold prices and rising demand for safe-haven assets [1] Group 3: Stock Trends - A total of 23 sectors saw stocks hitting daily limits, with the top five sectors accounting for over 60% of the total, indicating a high concentration of investment [2] - The three core themes identified are electrical equipment (including solar, wind, energy storage, and charging piles), non-ferrous metals (copper, zinc, gold, aluminum), and machinery [2] - The first-tier stocks hitting daily limits represent 62.3% of the total, characterized by low market capitalization and high turnover, while stocks with multiple limits show signs of speculative trading [3]

| 代码 | 名称 | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量(手) | 成交额(元) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 002636 | 金安国纪 | 25.63 | 10.00% | 81.12万 | 20.51亿 | | 603920 | 世运电路 | 65.71 | 9.99% | 43.29万 | 27.81亿 | | 300903 | 科翔股份 | 26.22 | 8.39% | 60.25万 | 15.50亿 | | 688539 | 高华科技 | 49.89 | 4.77% | 10.34万 | 5.14亿 | | 300657 | 弘信电子 | 31.45 | 3.97% | 49.60万 | 15.67亿 | | 603175 | 超颖电子 | 73.68 | 3.14% | 6.63万 | 4.83亿 | | 600563 | 法拉电子 | 117.56 | 2.72% | 5.89万 | 6.88亿 | | 661Z00 | *ST东晶 | 10.20 | 2.41% | 3.20万 | 3233.08万 | | 920491 | 圆迪威 | ...

2026 年 1 月 23 日 陈伟光 S0340520060001 电话：0769-22119430 邮箱： chenweiguang@dgzq.com.cn 罗炜斌 S0340521020001 电话：0769-22110619 邮箱： luoweibin@dgzq.com.cn 资料来源：iFind，东莞证券研究所 超配（维持） 电子行业双周报（2026/01/09-2026/01/22） 行 业 日系 Resonac 上调覆铜板产品价格 投资要点： 本报告的风险等级为中高风险。 本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 请务必阅读末页声明。 电子行业 SAC 执业证书编号： 行情回顾及估值：申万电子板块近2周（01/09-01/22）累计上涨5.84%， 跑赢沪深300指数6.14个百分点，在申万行业中排名第6名；板块1月累 计上涨13.00%，跑赢沪深300指数10.98个百分点，在申万行业中排名第 4名；板块今年累计上涨13.00%，跑赢沪深300指数10.98个百分点，在 申万行业中排名第4名。估值方面，截至1月22日，SW电子板块PE T ...

1月23日，A股全天下来共有121只涨停股、2只跌停股。钙钛矿电池概念活跃，沃格光电3天2板，钧达 股份2连板，捷佳伟创、太阳能等涨停；电力设备板块走强，明阳智能2连板，金风科技、迈为股份等涨 停；BC电池概念上涨，宇晶股份2连板。 *ST奥维连续11日跌停，*ST万方连续9日跌停。 连板股方面，锋龙股份18连板，江化微5连板，金安国纪7天4板，ST八菱5天4板，*ST长药、白银有色4 连板，汉商集团5天3板，巨力索具、ST新华锦等3连板，浙文互联、山东赫达等4天2板，大中矿业3天2 板，*ST铖昌、西部材料等2连板，中国卫星、铜陵有色等涨停。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for commodities and stock index futures is overall neutral [5] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The driving force of the non - ferrous metals sector is slowing down, and its short - term upward trend may ease [1] - The general trend of inflation narrative remains unchanged, and the future path of price recovery depends on supply - side policies [2] - There is a certain divergence in domestic and overseas economic prosperity. Overseas prosperity has been declining since October, while China's exports and new orders are still positive [3] - In the short term, attention should be paid to the rotation possibility of low - valuation sectors in commodities [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - Macro factors: The "232" investigation has been finalized, and Trump announced not to impose new tariffs on key mineral imports. He is also planning a "price floor" mechanism. There are developments in the Greenland issue and the Fed chair candidate situation [1] - Event factors: CME will change the margin setting method for gold, silver, platinum, and palladium contracts. The CMX - LME spread of copper has converged [1] Inflation Narrative - Central Economic Work Conference emphasized boosting consumption and "anti - involution". The central bank cut interest rates on structural monetary policy tools and indicated there is room for further cuts. The Ministry of Finance issued 5 policy documents to support various loans. Special treasury bonds for equipment renewal were issued, and large - scale MLF operations were carried out [2] - Geopolitical tensions between Iran and Venezuela have intensified, and only economic recession and interest - rate hike expectations can cool down inflation [2] Domestic and Overseas Economic Conditions - China's foreign trade is accelerating recovery. In December, exports increased by 6.6% and imports by 5.7% year - on - year. China's GDP growth target of 5% in 2025 was achieved. The official manufacturing PMI in December was 50.1, and the non - manufacturing PMI was 50.2 [3] - The US 12 - month ISM manufacturing index decreased slightly, and non - farm payrolls were lower than expected with a high unemployment rate [3] Commodity Analysis - Non - ferrous metals: Long - term supply constraints remain, but short - term upward momentum may slow [4] - Energy: The US will "sell on behalf of" Venezuelan oil, and Trump hopes to lower oil prices. The US energy minister called for doubling global oil production, and the IEA predicts a serious supply surplus [4] - Chemicals: The "anti - involution" space of methanol, PTA and other varieties is worth attention [4] - Agricultural products: Weather expectations and short - term pig diseases need to be monitored [4] - Black metals: Domestic policy expectations and low - valuation repair possibilities should be focused on [4] - Precious metals: Opportunities to buy gold at low prices should be noted [4] Strategy - The overall strategy for commodities and stock index futures is neutral [5] Important News - The market rebounded after hitting the bottom, with multiple sectors performing strongly [7] - The National Development and Reform Commission issued 93.6 billion yuan in special treasury bonds for equipment renewal, driving over 460 billion yuan in total investment [7] - The central bank will conduct 900 billion yuan in 1 - year MLF operations [7] - The central bank governor said there is room for further reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts this year [7] - There are developments in the US regarding the Fed chair candidate and the Greenland issue [7] - The European Parliament indefinitely froze the review of the EU - US trade agreement [7] - The US energy minister called for doubling global oil production [7] - US natural gas prices soared by 50% in two days, and WTI and Brent crude oil prices declined [7]

Group 1 - The stock of Jin'an Guoji has experienced a significant increase, with a total rise of 56.28% over the past seven trading days, including four trading halts [2] - As of January 22, the stock's trading volume reached 32.46 million shares, with a transaction value of 811 million yuan, resulting in a turnover rate of 4.48% [2] - The latest total market capitalization of the stock in the A-share market is 18.659 billion yuan, with a circulating market value of 18.564 billion yuan [2] Group 2 - The margin trading data indicates that as of January 22, the margin balance for the stock is 483 million yuan, which has decreased by 25.07 million yuan, a decline of 4.94% compared to the previous trading day [2] - Over the past seven days, the margin balance has increased by 120 million yuan, reflecting a growth of 33.07% [2] - The stock has appeared on the Dragon and Tiger list once due to a cumulative deviation in price increase of 20% over three consecutive trading days, with institutional net selling amounting to 5.8225 million yuan [2] Group 3 - On January 22, the company released a profit forecast for 2025, expecting a net profit between 280 million yuan and 360 million yuan, representing a year-on-year change of 655.53% to 871.40% [2] - Jin'an Guoji Group Co., Ltd. was established on October 19, 2000, with a registered capital of 728 million yuan [2]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry or Company Involved - **Aerospace Industry**: Blue Arrow Aerospace Technology Co., Ltd. (蓝箭航天) - **Retail Pharmacy**: Various companies including Yao Yi Gou (药易购), Shuyu Pingmin (漱玉平民), and others - **Quantum Technology**: Companies like Guo Dun Quantum (国盾量子), Ke Da Guo Chuang (科大国创) - **Electric Vehicle and Robotics**: Tesla and its developments in humanoid robots Core Insights and Arguments - **Blue Arrow Aerospace**: The company is undergoing an IPO process, with its status changing to "inquiry" as of January 22, marking the fastest inspection record [1][1][1] - **Commercial Space Conference**: The third Beijing Commercial Aerospace Industry High-Quality Development Conference will be held from January 23 to 25, 2026, focusing on the modernization of the industrial chain and innovation in business models [2][2][2] - **Quantum Technology Development**: The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes quantum technology as a priority, with significant investments and collaborations being made to enhance capabilities in quantum computing [5][7][7] - **Retail Pharmacy Mergers**: The government encourages horizontal mergers and restructuring among retail drug enterprises to optimize the industry [8][9][10] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - **Space Tourism**: Beijing Chuan Yue Zhe's "CYZ1" spacecraft is set for its first manned flight by 2028, with over 20 tourists already booked [5][5][5] - **Tesla's Robotics Future**: CEO Elon Musk indicated that Tesla's future will increasingly rely on humanoid robots, with expectations for more complex tasks by 2026 [12][14][14] - **SpaceX's Second-Generation Starlink**: Planned for launch in 2027, this system aims to provide significantly enhanced internet services, with a capacity increase of over 100 times compared to the first generation [15][15][15] - **Meta's AI Smart Glasses**: Meta is set to launch AI smart glasses powered by MTK chips, with production handled by Longqi Technology [15][15][15]

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4122.58 points, with an increase of 0.14% and a trading volume of 1,201.764 billion yuan [1] - The Shenzhen Component Index closed at 14,327.05 points, rising by 0.50% with a trading volume of 1,489.968 billion yuan [1] - The ChiNext Index ended at 3,328.65 points, up by 1.01% and a trading volume of 681.535 billion yuan [1] Sector Performance - The commercial aerospace sector showed strong performance, with stocks like Jieli Rigging, Western Materials, and Jiuding New Materials hitting the daily limit [1] - The oil and gas sector also saw gains, with stocks such as Intercontinental Oil and Blue Flame Holdings reaching the daily limit [1] - The large aircraft sector was active, with stocks like Runbei Aerospace Science and Technology and Aero Engine Corporation of China hitting the daily limit [1] - The coal sector experienced a notable rise, with Dayou Energy reaching the daily limit [1] - The PCB sector strengthened, with stocks like Pengding Holdings and Jin'an Guoji hitting the daily limit [1] - The computing power leasing concept fluctuated higher, with Zhongbei Communication hitting the daily limit [1] - The controllable nuclear fusion concept saw a rise, with stocks like Zhejiang Fu Holdings and Xue Ren Group hitting the daily limit [1] Declining Sectors - The insurance, daily chemicals, and semiconductor sectors experienced declines [1]