Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" [1] Core Viewpoints - Chinese equipment has shown outstanding performance in the recent India-Pakistan conflict, with prime manufacturers benefiting more from military trade growth than upstream companies [12][14] - The military trade market is expected to grow significantly as China's global presence increases, with military equipment exports to Pakistan accounting for 63% of China's total military trade exports from 2020 to 2024 [14][17] - The report suggests focusing on two main investment themes: 1) Aerospace and "gap-filling" new focuses, including companies like Feilihua, Fenghuo Electronics, and others [18] 2) New technologies, products, and markets with greater elasticity, including companies like Aerospace Intelligent Manufacturing and others [18] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The closing index for the defense industry is 1502.54, with a 52-week high of 1712.48 and a low of 1113.62 [1] Market Performance - The military industry index increased by 5.17%, outperforming the broader market indices [19] - The top ten performing stocks in the military sector this week include Chengxi Aviation (+59.26%) and others [22] Valuation Levels - As of May 9, 2025, the military industry index stands at 10729.21, with a PE-TTM valuation of 103.42 and a PB valuation of 3.48, indicating that both valuations are at historical mid-levels [24][25]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The records discuss the military trade (military trade system) and its international performance, particularly focusing on China's military equipment exports and the implications of the India-Pakistan conflict on military trade dynamics [1][2][8]. Core Insights and Arguments - **China's Military Trade Position**: China is the fourth largest military trade exporter globally, with over 60% of its weapons sold to Pakistan, primarily high-end equipment, enhancing China's recognition in the international military equipment market [1][2][8]. - **Impact of India-Pakistan Conflict**: The recent conflict highlighted the advanced capabilities of Chinese military equipment, as Pakistan successfully used Chinese-made J-10C aircraft to shoot down Indian jets, showcasing the effectiveness and brand strength of Chinese military exports [2][8]. - **Investment Trends**: In Q1, public investment institutions reduced their holdings in the air force industry chain, particularly in leading military aircraft and engine companies, while significantly increasing their positions in companies related to munitions, such as Feilihua and Aerospace Electronics [1][4]. - **Potential of Key Companies**: Companies like AVIC Shenyang Aircraft Corporation (中航沈飞) and AVIC Optoelectronics (中航光电) are highlighted as quality stocks within the air force industry chain, with ROE nearing or exceeding 20%, currently at low valuation and expectation levels, indicating potential for growth in the trillion-yuan military trade market [1][5]. Important but Overlooked Content - **Data Link Importance**: The significance of data link systems in modern warfare is emphasized, as they enhance information warfare capabilities. Companies like CETC 54 and 712 Institute are expanding their offerings in this area, indicating a long-term growth potential [2][16]. - **Market Dynamics**: The military trade's impact on China's A-share military assets is significant, opening up vast foreign trade markets and enhancing profitability through systemic equipment exports, which leads to stable long-term business relationships [12]. - **Technological Advancements**: The transition from traditional to intelligent warfare systems is noted, with a focus on the increasing demand for connectors in military applications, particularly in active phased array radars, which are crucial for modern military operations [17][18]. Future Outlook - **AVIC Optoelectronics' Growth**: The company is expected to perform well in the next military business development cycle, despite short-term pressures. The anticipated recovery in orders and the company's strategic positioning in the market suggest a favorable outlook [20][21]. - **Strategic Developments**: AVIC Shenyang's recent advancements in asset quality and its focus on transitioning to next-generation aircraft (4th, 5th, and future 6th generation) are expected to enhance its competitive edge in the international market [14][15]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights and trends discussed in the conference call records, providing a comprehensive overview of the military trade landscape and the strategic positioning of key companies within the industry.

Core Viewpoint - The Shenzhen Upstream Industry Index has shown a recent increase, indicating potential investment opportunities in the upstream sector of the market [1] Group 1: Index Performance - The Shenzhen Upstream Industry Index rose by 1.32%, closing at 3951.01 points, with a trading volume of 16.078 billion yuan [1] - Over the past month, the index has increased by 5.14%, while it has decreased by 4.57% over the last three months and is down 0.09% year-to-date [1] Group 2: Index Composition - The Shenzhen Upstream Industry Index is composed of companies from the upstream, midstream, and downstream sectors, providing diverse investment options for investors [1] - The index is based on a reference date of December 31, 2002, with a base point of 1000.0 [1] Group 3: Top Holdings - The top ten weighted stocks in the Shenzhen Upstream Industry Index include: - Ganfeng Lithium (5.27%) - Shanjin International (4.81%) - Yun Aluminum (4.64%) - Tianqi Lithium (4.54%) - Shenhuo Co. (4.0%) - Feilihua (3.7%) - Tongling Nonferrous Metals (3.66%) - China Rare Earth (3.62%) - Zhongmin Resources (3.17%) - Tianshan Aluminum (3.13%) [1] Group 4: Sector Allocation - The sector allocation of the index holdings is as follows: - Industrial metals: 34.91% - Rare metals: 32.53% - Precious metals: 10.22% - Coal: 6.42% - Other non-metal materials: 5.57% - Oil and natural gas: 3.86% - Other nonferrous metals and alloys: 3.39% - Oil and gas extraction and field services: 3.10% [2] Group 5: Sample Adjustment - The index samples are adjusted semi-annually, with adjustments occurring on the next trading day after the second Friday of June and December each year [2] - The sample adjustment typically does not exceed 20%, with special circumstances allowing for temporary adjustments [2]

Investment Rating - The report rates the defense and military industry as "better than the market" [4]. Core Insights - The recent conflict between India and Pakistan, where Pakistan used Chinese weapons to shoot down multiple Indian aircraft, has created new opportunities for China's military trade [2][34]. - Pakistan has imported over 80% of its military equipment from China in the past five years, highlighting its role as a key partner in China's Belt and Road Initiative [2][35]. - The demand for advanced military equipment, such as air defense systems and drones, is increasing due to the ongoing tensions in the region [2][35]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The defense and military index rose by 6.33% last week, outperforming other major indices [13]. - The current PE (TTM) for the defense and military sector is 76.08, with aerospace equipment at 136.47 and ground weaponry at 144.71 [21]. Key Recommendations - Recommended companies include: Hongdu Aviation, AVIC Shenyang Aircraft, AVIC Xi'an Aircraft, and Zhongji Aviation for downstream manufacturers; and companies like Lianchuang Optoelectronics and Guangqi Technology for military technology [3][36]. Industry Dynamics - The military industry is expected to see long-term growth, with demand recovering and production capacity improving [3]. - The global military trade market has shown steady growth, with military spending correlating with trade volume [36][42]. Military Trade Insights - The top five military exporters from 2019 to 2023 were the USA (41.7%), France (10.9%), Russia (10.5%), China (5.8%), and Germany (5.6%) [39]. - China's military exports have been rapidly increasing, with a market share of 8.35% in 2023, driven by competitive weaponry and a decline in Russian exports [42][44].

Group 1 - The defense ETF (512670.SH) increased by 3.37%, with its associated index, the Zhongzheng Defense (399973.SZ), also rising by 3.37% [1] - Major constituent stocks such as AVIC Shenyang Aircraft (中航沈飞) rose by 5.48%, AVIC Chengfei (中航成飞) by 6.41%, and AVIC Optoelectronics (中航光电) by 2.55% [1] - The defense and military sector experienced a rebound, with stocks like Tianjian Technology and Chengfei Integration achieving four consecutive trading gains, driving significant market interest [1] Group 2 - The favorable logic for the defense industry includes short-term tensions between India and Pakistan, medium-term acceleration of project 145, and long-term shifts in military trade orders from Europe and the U.S. to China [2] - The ceasefire between India and Pakistan is not fully stable, with recent skirmishes indicating potential ongoing military engagements and equipment testing [2] Group 3 - Related products include the Defense ETF (512670) [3] - Associated stocks include AVIC Optoelectronics (002179), AVIC Shenyang Aircraft (600760), AVIC Power (600893), AVIC Xifei (000768), AVIC onboard (600372), and others [3]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the small metals and new materials sector is "Positive" (maintained) [5] Core Views - The report highlights that supply-side factors are driving up prices for rare earths and tungsten, with a focus on tariff easing and opportunities in military new materials [4] - The report emphasizes the potential for price increases in rare earths due to export restrictions and the expected recovery of new materials companies as tariff concerns ease [7][11] - The military new materials sector is expected to see increased production in the second quarter due to heightened geopolitical tensions, particularly following recent conflicts between India and Pakistan [12] Summary by Sections Rare Earths - Recent price increases for rare earths include a 4.19% rise in praseodymium-neodymium oxide to 423,000 CNY/ton, a 2.17% increase in dysprosium oxide to 1,645,000 CNY/ton, and a 4.51% rise in terbium oxide to 7,075,000 CNY/ton [6][15] - The report notes that the export restrictions imposed by China on seven types of medium and heavy rare earth products have led to significant price increases in overseas markets, with dysprosium prices in Europe rising from 250-310 USD/kg to 700-1000 USD/kg (an increase of 204%) [6][10] - Recommendations for investment include companies such as Guangxi Rare Earth, China Rare Earth, and Northern Rare Earth [6] Molybdenum - Molybdenum prices have seen a 3.57% increase in molybdenum concentrate to 3,485 CNY/ton and a 2.26% rise in molybdenum iron (Mo60) to 226,000 CNY/ton [22] - The report indicates strong support from raw material costs and active bidding from steel mills, although the sustainability of demand needs further observation [22] Tungsten - Tungsten prices have increased recently, with black tungsten concentrate rising 3.40% to 152,000 CNY/ton and ammonium paratungstate increasing 3.24% to 223,000 CNY/ton [25] - The report notes a slight contraction in supply and stable demand, with new applications in photovoltaic cutting and robotics potentially expanding demand [25] Tin - Tin prices have shown weakness, with SHFE tin down 1.26% to 259,500 CNY/ton and LME tin down 1.11% to 31,700 USD/ton [36] - Supply issues due to low operating rates in refining enterprises and weak demand from the electronics sector are contributing to price fluctuations [36] Antimony - Antimony prices have remained stable, with antimony ingot prices down 1.05% to 235,000 CNY/ton and antimony concentrate prices stable at 202,500 CNY/ton [45] - The report highlights marginal improvements in supply but weak demand in certain sectors [45] New Materials - Expectations for tariff easing are rising, with a focus on new materials companies that have high export exposure, which may see recovery as tariff concerns diminish [11] - The military new materials sector is expected to benefit from increased production due to geopolitical tensions, with companies like Western Superconducting and Tunan Co. being highlighted for potential investment [12]

Group 1 - The China Securities High-end Equipment Sub-index 50 has decreased by 2.46% as of May 9, 2025, with mixed performance among constituent stocks, led by Aerospace Nanhai up 1.50% [1] - The High-end Equipment ETF (159638) has seen a cumulative increase of 8.55% over the past two weeks as of May 8, 2025 [1] - The High-end Equipment ETF recorded a turnover of 3.05% and a transaction volume of 36.1554 million yuan, with an average daily transaction volume of 97.8379 million yuan over the past week [3] Group 2 - The latest scale of the High-end Equipment ETF reached 1.237 billion yuan, marking a new high for the year, with the latest share count at 1.547 billion, also a new high for the past year [3] - The net inflow of funds into the High-end Equipment ETF was 30.633 million yuan [3] - The top ten weighted stocks in the China Securities High-end Equipment Sub-index 50 account for 45.74% of the index, including companies like AVIC Optoelectronics and AVIC Shenyang Aircraft [3] Group 3 - Institutions forecast a turning point in military industry orders by 2025, driven by new technologies aimed at enhancing equipment performance or reducing costs, and new markets from military trade and technology conversion [3] - Huatai Securities indicates that China has entered a phase of "self-research equipment as the main" military trade net surplus, with significant growth expected in domestic demand from 2025 to 2027 [3] - Investors can consider the China Securities High-end Equipment Sub-index 50 ETF linked fund (018028) to capitalize on industry rotation opportunities [3]

Summary of High Purity Quartz Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The high purity quartz sand industry in China has matured in preparation technology, but the lack of stable and high-quality mineral sources remains a bottleneck. Recent discoveries of 4N grade and above mineral sources in multiple regions, such as Henan Dongqinling, which has reached the Youniming 4N8 standard suitable for photovoltaic applications, are promising. Other regions like Xinjiang Altai and Hunan Renli have also reported similar findings [1][4][21]. Key Developments and Trends - A significant recent development in the high purity quartz sand industry is the discovery of high-quality mineral veins in China that can meet C8 grade standards or higher. This could potentially reduce reliance on overseas mineral sources in the long term, although the transition will not be rapid. For leading companies, this could lower raw material costs and provide short-term profit benefits [2][27]. - The synthetic quartz sand market is progressing, with stable operation for 500 hours and continuous cost reduction in photovoltaic crucible applications. Although this technology has not yet reached mass production, its future potential is substantial, applicable not only in photovoltaic scenarios but also in the semiconductor field [2]. Market Supply and Demand - The high-end high purity quartz sand market heavily relies on imports, especially for C8 grade and above products, primarily supplied by American company SiO2 and Norwegian TQC. China is the largest importer globally, with an expected import of approximately 40,000 tons of high purity quartz above 3N in 2024, amounting to a trade value of $820 million, with a unit price of about $20,000 per ton [1][9]. Technological Insights - The purification technology for high purity quartz includes acid treatment and thermal treatment, with domestic companies having relatively mature refining techniques. However, the quality of stable mineral sources is crucial for ensuring product quality [3][17]. - Synthetic quartz sand has the highest purity, as natural quartz sand has a purification limit. It can replace applications in semiconductor single crystal furnace crucibles and high-end optical glass. Recent studies indicate that domestic synthetic sand has reached international standards, with pilot products showing good verification results [5][25]. Investment Recommendations - If the domestic semiconductor and photovoltaic crucible quartz sand market transitions to local sources, downstream customers will need to re-validate these new mineral sources, which may level the playing field for related companies. Leading companies with purification technology and customer resources, such as Quartz Co., Feilihua, Kede Stone, and Zhongqi New Materials, are recommended for attention. Additionally, due to the higher technical barriers and costs associated with synthetic quartz sand, companies like Kaisheng Technology should also be monitored [6][27]. Challenges and Risks - The development of high purity quartz mines faces risks such as mining difficulties and environmental issues, which may affect the pace of development. If new mineral sources are successfully verified domestically, industry competition may intensify [3][28][29]. - The supply bottleneck in domestic high purity quartz sand is primarily due to the lack of high-grade minerals. Leading companies like Quartz Co. have relied on imports to address raw material shortages, with over 93% of their raw materials sourced from countries like India and Brazil [19]. Conclusion - The recent discoveries of high-quality mineral sources in China could significantly impact the high purity quartz sand industry, potentially reducing reliance on imports and altering the competitive landscape. However, the transition will require careful validation by downstream customers and may face various challenges in mining and environmental regulations.

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the military industry, suggesting that the "performance bottom" has been established and that the sector may enter a new growth cycle from 2025 to 2027 [6] Core Insights - In 2024, the military industry experienced a decline in total revenue and net profit, with a year-on-year decrease of 5% and 48% respectively. The first quarter of 2025 continued this trend with a 5% year-on-year decline in revenue and a 34% decline in net profit [1][11] - The report indicates that the decline in revenue and profit is "non-linear," with profits dropping significantly despite only a slight decrease in revenue. This is attributed to factors such as price declines and increased impairment losses [2][19] - The shipbuilding sector showed the best performance, with net profit increasing by 88% in 2024, while other sectors like aerospace and weapons faced significant losses [4][48] Summary by Sections Performance Review - In 2024, the military industry (excluding shipbuilding) achieved total revenue of 458 billion yuan, down 5.3% year-on-year, and a net profit of 187 billion yuan, down 48.4% year-on-year. Including shipbuilding, total revenue was 683.1 billion yuan, down 1.3%, and net profit was 263 billion yuan, down 34.7% [11][12] - The first quarter of 2025 saw total revenue of 858 billion yuan, down 4.8% year-on-year, and a net profit of 44 billion yuan, down 34.2% year-on-year [61][63] Trend Analysis - The industry has faced continuous profit declines over seven consecutive quarters, with the fourth quarter of 2024 marking the first historical quarterly loss [2][19] - The gross profit margin decreased by 2.1 percentage points to 21.6%, and the net profit margin decreased by 3.4 percentage points to 4.4% in 2024 [19][60] Balance Sheet Insights - As of the end of 2024, the industry had inventory totaling 225.8 billion yuan, accounting for 49% of total revenue, indicating inventory buildup and preparation for order recovery [3][23] - Accounts receivable increased to 319.7 billion yuan, representing 70% of total revenue, highlighting ongoing collection pressures [3][25] Sector Performance - The shipbuilding sector was the only segment to achieve positive growth in 2024, with a net profit increase of 88% [4][48] - The aerospace and weapons sectors experienced significant losses, with expectations for recovery in 2025 [4][37] Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on specific companies within the military sector, including guided equipment and new combat capabilities, as well as military trade and commercial aviation [5]

军工行业 2025 年一季度公募基金持仓分析 1Q25 机构低配军工；持仓"底部特征"明确 2025 年 05 月 08 日 ➢ 投资建议 近期，公募基金 2025 年一季报披露完毕。1Q25，主动型基金超配/低配军 工幅度环比减少 0.27ppt 至-0.21ppt，连续 10 个季度环比减少并且出现低配。 我们观点如下：1）主动型基金超配军工幅度在 3Q22 达到峰值后，呈现持续下 降趋势。1Q25 转为低配，或为行业底部信号。2）军工主题基金规模呈减少趋 势，1Q25 较历史最高规模已下滑接近 50%。3）1Q25 主动型基金加仓了几乎 所有细分板块，典型如新材料、信息化等。4）1Q25 机构偏好出现变化，主动 型基金回归重点配置白马龙头，且持仓集中度有所降低。 ➢ 持仓分析 主动型基金连续 10 个季度减配军工，并已至低配。1Q25：1）主动型基金 超配/低配民生军工幅度为-0.21ppt（处于低配水平），环比减少 0.27ppt，已经 连续 10 个季度环比减少，变化幅度在所有行业中处于中间位置（排名 16/30）。 2）军工主题基金规模环比减少 8.30%至 320 亿元，较 4Q21 历史最高规 ...