Core Viewpoint - The market is witnessing a strong performance in the free cash flow index, with significant gains in related sectors, particularly in cyclical industries, driven by recent positive developments in the automotive and transportation sectors [1][2]. Group 1: Free Cash Flow Index Performance - The CSI Free Cash Flow Index (932365) increased by 1.08%, with notable gains from stocks such as Xinhua Department Store (+9.99%), Zhongmin Energy (+9.93%), and Pinggao Electric (+9.76%) [1]. - The Free Cash Flow ETF (159233) rose by 1.28%, closing at 1.26 yuan, and is designed to track the CSI Free Cash Flow Index, focusing on cyclical industries [1]. Group 2: Automotive Sector Developments - A new electric vehicle quota agreement between China and Canada is expected to accelerate the entry of Chinese electric vehicles into the North American market, with a reduction in tariffs from 100% to 6.1% for a quota of 49,000 vehicles annually [1]. - The China Automobile Association projects that vehicle exports will reach 7.4 million units by 2026, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 4.3% [1]. Group 3: Transportation Sector Insights - The 2026 Spring Festival travel season is set to begin on February 2, with an expected 539 million passengers, marking a 5.0% increase year-on-year, which will boost demand in the transportation sector [2]. - The Spring Festival is anticipated to enhance profitability across various transportation segments, including railways, civil aviation, and logistics, leading to improved cash flow stability for transportation companies [2].

Market Overview - The A-share market opened lower on January 19, but all three major indices turned positive by the time of reporting. Sectors such as trade agency, storage chips, and semiconductors saw significant gains, while AI marketing, internet, software services, communication equipment, and media entertainment sectors experienced notable declines [1] - In the Hong Kong market, both the Hang Seng Index and the Hang Seng Tech Index were in the red. Notable movements included a more than 9% increase in Changfei Optical Fiber and Cable, while Alibaba fell nearly 3% and Xiaomi Group and SMIC dropped over 1% [1] Company Specifics - WISCO Development (600058) experienced a "limit-up and limit-down" trading session after three consecutive days of stock price increases. The company announced plans to swap major assets related to its original business with 100% equity of WISCO Mining and Lu Zhong Mining held by its controlling shareholder, WISCO Group. The transaction will involve issuing shares and cash payments to acquire the assets, with the original business assets being divested and the new assets focusing on iron ore mining and processing [4][5] Industry Insights - The electric grid equipment sector showed active trading, with companies like Hancable and Senyuan Electric achieving consecutive gains, and Guodian Electric hitting the daily limit. Analysts noted that the National Grid Company plans to invest 4 trillion yuan in fixed assets during the 14th Five-Year Plan, representing a 40% increase from the previous plan. This investment is expected to drive growth in the electric grid equipment industry, especially with rising power demand driven by AI capabilities [9] - The AI application sector is experiencing a rebound, with companies like Baina Qiancheng and Giant Network seeing significant stock price increases. OpenAI's recent announcement to test advertising in its free and subscription tiers indicates a shift towards commercialization in the AI field, as the underlying model technology matures and costs decrease [11][13]

| 收盘点位 | | 10679.07 | | --- | --- | --- | | 52 | 周最高 | 10950.05 | | 52 | 周最低 | 6107.84 | 行业相对指数表现（相对值） 2025-01 2025-03 2025-06 2025-08 2025-11 2026-01 -11% -4% 3% 10% 17% 24% 31% 38% 45% 52% 59% 电力设备 沪深300 资料来源：聚源，中邮证券研究所 研究所 证券研究报告：电力设备|点评报告 行业投资评级 强于大市 |维持 行业基本情况 分析师:苏千叶 SAC 登记编号:S1340525110004 Email:suqianye@cnpsec.com 分析师:杨帅波 SAC 登记编号:S1340524070002 Email:yangshuaibo@cnpsec.com 分析师:盛炜 SAC 登记编号:S1340525120008 Email:shengwei@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 《核电产业报告 1： ——全球核电复兴 下的 4 代核电的投资机会》 - 2026.01.06 电网投资加速，看好跨区建设和电 ...

Group 1: Commercial Aerospace - The commercial aerospace sector is transitioning from "single satellite testing" to "constellation networking," with significant growth expected as China develops reusable rocket technology and increases satellite launches [5][6][7] - The "Zhuque-3" rocket has a launch capacity of 21.3 tons, surpassing the Falcon 9's initial recovery capacity, indicating a strong foundation for future satellite launches [6] - The market potential for domestic satellite launches is substantial, with an estimated annual demand for approximately 4,000 satellites, suggesting a significant growth trajectory for the industry [6][7] Group 2: Automotive Industry - Spring Power (603129.SH) is projected to achieve net profits of 1.907 billion, 2.371 billion, and 2.805 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027, with a target market capitalization of 49.8 billion yuan based on a 21x PE ratio for 2026 [2][13] - The company is positioned as a leader in all-terrain vehicles and large-displacement motorcycles, with competitive advantages in performance and cost-effectiveness compared to international competitors [13][14] - The electric two-wheeler segment is expected to contribute significantly to revenue growth, with sales reaching 250,500 units and revenue of 872 million yuan in the first half of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 652.06% [15] Group 3: Financial Sector - The introduction of the "Derivatives Trading Supervision Management Measures" aims to regulate the derivatives market, enhancing the legal framework and promoting the development of the derivatives business [32][33][34] - The measures emphasize the importance of derivatives in managing risks and supporting the real economy, indicating a growing focus on regulatory oversight in the financial sector [32][34] - Major securities firms are expected to benefit from the regulatory changes, particularly those with strengths in derivatives trading, as the market becomes more structured and opportunities for growth arise [34] Group 4: Macro Financial Data - In December, new loans totaled 910 billion yuan, with a year-on-year decrease compared to the previous year, while corporate loans showed signs of recovery [18][19] - The social financing growth rate slowed, primarily due to government financing constraints, indicating a need for policy adjustments to stimulate economic activity [19][20] - The central bank's recent rate cuts and liquidity measures suggest a continued effort to support economic growth and maintain stable financing conditions [20][40]

Summary of State Grid's Capex Plan for the 15th FYP Industry Overview - **Industry**: China Utilities - **Company**: State Grid Corporation of China Key Points 1. **Capex Plan Confirmation**: State Grid has confirmed a capital expenditure (capex) plan of Rmb4 trillion for the 15th Five-Year Plan (FYP), which is a 40% increase compared to the 14th FYP, aligning with previous estimates [2][3] 2. **Investment Breakdown**: The total investment during the 14th FYP was approximately Rmb2.8 trillion, with annual investments increasing from Rmb488 billion in 2021 to Rmb650 billion in 2025 [2] 3. **Growth Projections**: The proposed capex indicates a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of over 7% from 2026 to 2030, as annual grid capex growth is expected to outpace power demand during the 15th FYP [3] 4. **Key Initiatives**: Major initiatives include: - Investment in Ultra High Voltage (UHV), backbone, and distribution networks, with allocations of Rmb490 billion, Rmb985 billion, and Rmb2,484 billion respectively [2] - A focus on enhancing grid resiliency and reliability due to increasing renewable energy connections [2] 5. **Beneficiaries**: Companies expected to benefit from this capex plan include NARI Technology, Pinggao Electric, and XJ Electric, due to their significant exposure to State Grid [3] 6. **Infrastructure Enhancements**: The plan aims to accelerate UHV build-outs and improve inter-regional power transmission capacity by over 30% compared to the 14th FYP [7][8] 7. **Distribution Network Expansion**: There will be an emphasis on accelerating the construction of distribution networks in both urban and rural areas to support the growing demand for electricity [8] Additional Insights - **Investment Risks**: Potential risks include delays in the tendering process for new UHV lines and lower-than-expected investments in the grid distribution network, which could impact revenue recognition [13][16] - **Market Outlook**: The overall industry view remains attractive, indicating positive sentiment towards investments in the utilities sector [5] This summary encapsulates the essential details regarding State Grid's capex plan and its implications for the utilities industry in China.

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the investment plans of the State Grid Corporation of China, indicating a significant increase in investment, which is expected to usher in a new high-intensity construction cycle focused on ultra-high voltage (UHV) construction, benefiting core equipment suppliers like Pinggao Electric and China Western Power [1][2]. Key Points and Arguments Investment Goals - The core goal of the State Grid's investment in 2026 is to build a new power system that aligns with renewable energy and carbon neutrality targets. The investment plan amounts to 4 trillion yuan, a significant increase from 2.85 trillion yuan during the previous five-year period, marking the start of a new high-intensity construction cycle [2]. Strengthening the Power Grid Platform - Specific measures to strengthen the power grid platform include UHV construction and investment in main network equipment. UHV construction is crucial for supporting the development of wind and solar resources in the western regions and hydropower projects in the southwest. Key equipment includes transformers, GIS switchgear, and converters, with companies like Pinggao Electric and China Western Power having significant advantages in these areas [3]. Enhancing Regulation Capabilities - Enhancing regulation capabilities focuses on improving source-side and composite-side regulation. This includes attention to energy storage applications and the prediction of unstable renewable energy generation, such as solar power. The demand for power software and virtual power plants is increasing, necessitating customized development [5]. Strengthening Technological Empowerment - The State Grid is actively adopting emerging technologies such as drone inspections and AI to enhance operational efficiency and automation. These technologies are applied in inspection robots and online monitoring systems, with major technological projects promoting the widespread application of new technologies in society [6]. Investment Focus on Distribution Network - Investment in the distribution network emphasizes digital upgrades, including the integration of primary and secondary systems, smart terminals, distribution automation, and smart meters. Companies like Oriental Electronics lead in distribution automation, while Sanxin Medical and Haixing Electric are prominent in the smart meter sector [7]. Development Trends in New Energy Storage Equipment - New energy storage equipment is focused on enhancing peak regulation capabilities, with independent storage business models becoming clearer due to capacity pricing policies. The domestic market is expected to maintain good growth through 2026, with companies like Sungrow, CATL, and EVE Energy being competitive in system integration and battery cell fields [8]. Opportunities in Power IT and Software - The power IT and software sector requires robust software platforms to support digital transformation, including scheduling, marketing, and asset management. Companies like Yuan Guang Software are deeply integrated with State Grid clients and are expected to benefit from future upgrades [9]. Global Market Impact on Chinese Enterprises - The global market significantly impacts Chinese enterprises, as they possess strong global competitiveness in power equipment. The demand for maintenance and construction in North America, Southeast Asia, Europe, and the Americas presents new opportunities for Chinese companies [10]. Investment Logic in Space Photovoltaics - The space photovoltaic sector has three main investment logics: reduced launch costs due to commercial space initiatives, increased power capacity of satellites, and the potential rise of perovskite technology. These factors are expected to drive future demand in space power applications [12]. Companies to Watch in Space Photovoltaics - Investment in space photovoltaics can be categorized into three tiers: - Tier 1 includes companies like Junda, Oriental Sunrise, and Shanghai Port, which have been early movers in the sector. - Tier 2 includes companies like Mingyang Smart Energy and Tianhe Solar, which have existing or potential layouts in space photovoltaics. - Tier 3 consists of membrane companies and potential equipment manufacturers that may benefit from the sector's growth [13]. AIDC Market Outlook - The AIDC market outlook is positive, with the U.S. government promoting technology companies to bid for long-term power supply contracts to address electricity supply issues. The average retail electricity price in the U.S. is expected to rise by 7.4% in 2026, driven by increased demand from data centers [14]. Current Thematic Investment Opportunities - Current market themes include the recent rollout of grid investment plans, which may drive clear market trends. The space photovoltaic sector, AIDC power supply, and solid-state batteries are identified as areas with significant thematic investment opportunities [15].

Core Viewpoint - The high-voltage power equipment sector is experiencing significant activity, with multiple stocks reaching their daily limit up due to increased investment and demand in the domestic power grid sector [1][2]. Group 1: Market Activity - Six stocks in the high-voltage equipment sector hit the daily limit up, including Electric Power Research Institute, Han Cable, Senyuan Electric, Dalian Electric Porcelain, Jicheng Electronics, and Fengfan [1]. - Electric Power Research Institute saw a rise of over 14%, while other companies like Han Cable and Senyuan Electric increased by over 10% [2]. Group 2: Industry Trends - The core logic behind the market speculation is the overall improvement in the high-voltage industry, driven by a significant expansion in domestic power grid investment and breakthroughs in domestic core technologies [2][3]. - The State Grid Corporation of China has projected fixed asset investments to reach 4 trillion yuan during the 14th Five-Year Plan, a 40% increase from the previous plan, focusing on building a smarter and greener power grid [3][4]. Group 3: Technological Advancements - Recent developments include the successful trial operation of a domestically developed series of AC filter protection and converter protection devices by XJ Electric, marking a significant technological breakthrough in the high-voltage sector [3]. - The global transformer market is facing a notable supply shortage, with North America experiencing a 30% gap, which presents growth opportunities for domestic companies in the export market [4]. Group 4: Investment Recommendations - Citic Securities recommends focusing on leading domestic power equipment companies closely related to the investment climate in the domestic power grid and major projects like high-voltage and flexible DC [4].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the power equipment industry, particularly in the renewable energy sector, with significant investments and technological advancements expected to drive growth [1][2][4]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the State Grid's investment during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period is projected to reach 4 trillion yuan, marking a 40% increase compared to the previous plan [2]. - The report emphasizes the stability in polysilicon prices and the continuous rise in battery component prices, with N-type battery prices increasing to 0.40 yuan per watt [15][16]. - The report identifies three key areas of focus: supply-side reform leading to price increases in the industry chain, long-term growth opportunities from new technologies, and industrialization opportunities from perovskite GW-level layouts [16]. Summary by Sections 1. New Energy Generation 1.1 Photovoltaics - Polysilicon prices remain stable, while battery component prices are on the rise, with N-type battery prices reaching an average of 0.40 yuan per watt [15]. - The report notes that leading component companies are responding to industry self-discipline by raising component prices, with distributed sales prices reaching 0.72 yuan per watt [15][16]. - Key companies to watch include Tongwei Co., GCL-Poly, LONGi Green Energy, JA Solar, and Trina Solar [16]. 1.2 Wind Power & Grid - The UK AR7 offshore wind auction results exceeded expectations, with a total scale of approximately 8.4GW, validating the upward trend in European offshore wind [17]. - The State Grid's investment is expected to enhance transmission capacity significantly, addressing bottlenecks in renewable energy delivery [18]. - Companies to focus on include Goldwind, Yunda Wind Power, Mingyang Smart Energy, and Sany Heavy Energy [18]. 1.3 Hydrogen & Energy Storage - By 2025, the production and sales of fuel cell vehicles in China are projected to reach 7,797 units, reflecting a 44% year-on-year increase [20]. - The report anticipates that new energy storage installations will reach 58.6GW/175.3GWh by 2025, with significant growth expected in the energy storage sector [21]. - Key players in the hydrogen sector include Shuangliang Energy, Huadian Heavy Industries, and Shenghui Technology [20]. 2. New Energy Vehicles - Solid-state batteries are gaining traction, with several automakers making progress towards mass production by 2026 [29]. - Companies such as BYD, Changan Automobile, and Chery are expected to achieve significant milestones in solid-state battery technology [29]. - The report suggests monitoring companies like Xiamen Tungsten, Hailiang Co., and Nanjing Advanced Lithium Battery [29]. 3. Industry Trends - The report notes a 0.4% increase in the new energy equipment sector from January 12 to January 16, 2026, with a cumulative increase of 5.3% since the beginning of the year [12]. - The photovoltaic equipment sector saw a 3.52% increase, while the wind power equipment sector experienced a decline of 1.28% during the same period [13].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Positive" [6] Core Insights - The State Grid's "14th Five-Year Plan" investment is projected to reach 4 trillion yuan, representing a growth of over 40% compared to the previous plan, with an average annual investment compound growth rate of approximately 7% during the "15th Five-Year Plan" [9] - The focus remains on UHV (Ultra High Voltage) and power transmission, with a target to enhance cross-regional transmission capacity by over 30% by the end of the "15th Five-Year Plan" [9] - There is optimism regarding investment opportunities in distribution networks and smart technologies, particularly in urban and rural areas, to support zero-carbon initiatives and meet the demand for charging facilities [9] - The report highlights the potential for domestic power equipment companies to expand into North America due to a shortage of electricity, which is expected to drive both volume and price increases [9] Summary by Sections Investment Suggestions and Targets - Investment suggestion: The implementation of the State Grid's 4 trillion yuan investment plan is expected to sustain high prosperity in the domestic power equipment industry, with additional demand from North America and new technology requirements [3] - Key targets include: - UHV-related companies: Pinggao Electric (600312), XJ Electric (000400), China West Electric (601179) [3] - Companies related to power equipment exports and SST solid-state transformers: Jinpan Technology (688676), Siyuan Electric (002028), Sifang Co. (601126), Igor (002922), Anke Zhidian (300617) [3]

Group 1: Investment Overview - The State Grid Corporation of China plans to invest 4 trillion yuan during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, marking a historical high and a 40% increase compared to the previous period [1][2] - In 2023, the company completed a grid investment of 538.1 billion yuan, which is expected to rise to 609.2 billion yuan in 2024, surpassing 600 billion yuan for the first time [1][2] - By 2025, the fixed asset investment is projected to exceed 650 billion yuan, setting another historical record [1] Group 2: Infrastructure Development - The investment will focus on technological innovation and the construction of a new power system, including a backbone grid, distribution networks, and smart microgrids [1][2] - The new grid platform aims to enhance cross-regional transmission capacity by over 30% compared to the end of the 14th Five-Year Plan [2][3] - The development of the grid will support the integration of approximately 30% of renewable energy generation and enhance distributed energy capacity to 900 million kilowatts [3] Group 3: Industry Opportunities - The investment plan is expected to create a high-growth cycle for equipment manufacturers related to ultra-high voltage construction, including key components like converters and transformers [4] - Companies such as TBEA Co., Ltd. and Henan Pinggao Electric Co., Ltd. are positioned to capitalize on the market opportunities arising from the grid upgrades and digital transformation [4][5] - The focus on digitalization will drive demand for smart meters, digital dispatch systems, and AI applications in grid operations [4][5]