有机构指出，往后看驱动化工向好的因素颇多：短期看，春节后迎来旺季，预计存在补库涨价，全球产业链库存不高。3月 两会，观察"十五五"开局之年有无稳增长政策。全球降息周期，从海外消费传导到上游材料需求需要时间，预计下半年进 入加速期。 产能周期看，行业扩产高峰已过，主动型资本开支下降，诸多子行业产能增速为0，有的在出清途中。"十五五"规划建议， 对化工等传统行业提质升级，实现绿色低碳发展。最近无论是陕西出台对高耗能差别电价政策，还是国家取消部分大宗品 的出口退税，上层优化行业意图越发明显，促进供给侧改革。 化工供给增量及存量都会受到控制，简单低效扩产时代过去了。基于此，化工中长期景气向上，持续性可能会超越过去两 轮。久期拉长，估值也有望提升。重视化工的长牛、大机会。市场纠结的方面是有些股价提前打了一些预期，产品价格尚 未大涨。流动性充裕，长线资金提前布局，底部位置本身机构持仓比较低，如果预期后续确定基本面长周期向上，有大的 机会，提前几个月也算正常。 投资上，推荐两个方向，一个是顺周期弹性及成长（核心龙头公司；PTA/涤纶长丝、硅化工、纯碱/氯碱；钾肥/制冷剂/磷 化工等）；二个是成长类（新材料等）。 截至202 ...

每日经济新闻 银河证券研报称，建议关注化工品结构性投资机会。成本端，在不发生供应大幅中断的情况下，预 计2026年Brent原油价格运行区间为60-70美元/桶，成本端有望逐步止跌企稳，行业景气修复程度预计仍 与供需情况息息相关。供给端，一方面，2024年以来化工行业资本开支迎来负增长，在建、存量产能将 逐渐消化；另一方面，国内"反内卷"浪潮汹涌，海外落后产能加速出清，供给端有望收缩。需求 端，"十五五"规划建议稿"坚持扩大内需"为未来五年定调，国内新旧动能切换将持续推进叠加美国降息 周期开启，化工品需求增长可期。银河证券认为，2026年供给侧的反抗和需求侧的新动能有望加速化工 行业周期反转。 石化ETF（159731）及其联接基金（017855/017856）紧密跟踪中证石化产业指数，从申万一级行 业分布来看，基础化工行业占比为59.23%，石油石化行业占比为32.60%，"十五五"开局之年，供给 侧"有扶有控"与"反内卷"趋势结合，同时坚持扩大内需，化工行业周期将加速反转。 截至1月15日11点05分，石化ETF（159731）早盘现涨2%。持仓股中，彤程新材、广东宏大、和邦 生物等涨幅居前，涨幅超4%。 ...

Group 1 - The chemical materials and fine chemicals sectors experienced a strong rally, with the CSI sub-index for the chemical industry rising by 2.11% as of 10:36 AM on January 15, 2026, with notable stock performances including Hongda Co. up 8.95%, Guangdong Hongda up 6.06%, and Yuntianhua up 4.64% [1] - Since 2021, high prices of chemical products have led to increased capital expenditures by petrochemical and chemical companies, initiating a new round of capacity expansion. However, from 2022 onwards, as new capacities were released and oil prices fell from their peaks, many chemical product prices have continued to decline, resulting in decreased profitability for some companies [1] - Starting in 2024, most chemical product prices are stabilizing at the bottom, and while corporate profitability remains under pressure, the introduction of growth stabilization plans is expected to lead to the elimination of some outdated capacities, improving the overall supply-demand dynamics in the industry and enhancing product profitability [1] Group 2 - Guohai Securities suggests that the anti-involution policy may lead to a re-evaluation of the Chinese chemical industry, with a significant slowdown in global capacity expansion expected. The Chinese chemical industry has ample net cash flow from operating activities, and the slowdown in capacity expansion is likely to enhance potential dividend yields, shifting the industry from a capital-consuming model to a profit-returning one [1] - The optimization of the supply side is anticipated to drive a recovery in industry sentiment, with chemical stocks exhibiting high elasticity and dividend advantages [1] - As of December 31, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the CSI sub-index for the chemical industry accounted for 45.31% of the index, including companies like Wanhua Chemical and Yanhua Co. [2]

Core Viewpoint - The chemical ETF Tianhong (159133) has seen significant inflows and performance, reflecting a positive outlook for the chemical industry as it undergoes structural changes and optimization [2][3]. Group 1: ETF Performance - As of January 14, the chemical ETF Tianhong (159133) reached a new high with a total size of 843 million yuan and 735 million shares outstanding [2]. - The ETF has experienced continuous net inflows over the past 11 days, accumulating a total of 233 million yuan [2]. Group 2: Industry Trends - The Ministry of Finance announced the cancellation of the 13% export tax rebate on PVC powder starting April 1, 2026, which is expected to increase export costs by approximately 75 USD per ton. This may lead to a short-term surge in exports and a long-term shift towards high-value products and overseas capacity [2]. - The chemical industry is currently at a historical low point, with a shift from capacity expansion to optimization driven by "anti-involution" policies. Key sectors such as coal chemical, organic silicon, and pesticides are expected to see a supply-demand reversal [3]. Group 3: Investment Opportunities - Leading companies in the chemical sector are anticipated to benefit from the ongoing exit of low-efficiency capacity and the transition to high-value products, with potential profit recovery expected [3]. - Sub-industries with resource attributes or technical barriers, such as phosphorus chemicals and refrigerants, may present opportunities for value reassessment [3].

化工板块今日（1月15日）继续猛攻，反映化工板块整体走势的化工ETF（516020）开盘后震荡上行， 盘中场内价格最高涨幅达到2.31%，截至发稿，涨1.76%。 成份股方面，民爆用品、磷化工、锂电等板块部分个股涨幅居前。截至发稿，广东宏大、云天化双双大 涨超5%，博源化工、兴发集团、宏达股份涨超4%，天赐材料、万华化学涨超3%。 | 序号 | 代码 | 名称 | 主力净流入额 ▼ | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1 | CI005006 | 基础化工(中信) | 95.41亿 | | 2 | CI005003 | 有色金属(中信) | 84.41亿 | | 3 | CI005013 | 汽车(中信) | 20.42亿 | | 4 | CI005025 | 电子(中信) | 11.87亿 | | 5 | CI005010 | 机械(中信) | 11.50亿 | 广发证券指出，化工作为典型周期性行业，通常5年一轮周期，经历"盈利上行-产能扩张-盈利触底-产能 出清/需求预期改善"四个阶段。伴随资本开支增速转负、反内卷、海外降息、扩内需，看好十五五开局 阶段化工"破晓时分"。此外，全球 ...

Group 1 - The lithium battery sector is experiencing a new growth cycle, with major manufacturers starting large-scale equipment tenders and receiving hundreds of GWh in orders, indicating a strong demand outlook [1] - By 2026, the total new lithium battery production capacity is expected to exceed 1 TWh, with many equipment manufacturers anticipating record-high new orders [1] - Major manufacturers are securing substantial orders for materials and new production capacities, mirroring strategies from the 2020-2021 period, with expectations of significant demand growth over the next few years [1] Group 2 - CATL is expected to enhance its market share in the lithium battery sector by 2026, particularly in the energy storage segment, following the resolution of its capacity bottlenecks [2] - The profitability of the entire supply chain is anticipated to improve amid rising prices in the upstream market, with market expectations for CATL's 2026 performance likely to be revised upwards [2] - The current cycle of capital expenditure (capex) is expected to benefit lithium battery equipment manufacturers, locking in high growth for the next 2-3 years, while solid-state battery research will advance significantly by 2026 [2] Group 3 - The CSI Sub-Industry Chemical Theme Index (000813) has shown strong performance, with significant increases in stocks such as Guangdong Hongda, Wanhua Chemical, and Tianqi Lithium [2] - As of December 31, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the CSI Sub-Industry Chemical Theme Index account for 45.31% of the index, indicating a concentrated investment in key players [3]

Core Viewpoint - The petrochemical ETF (159731) has shown a positive performance with a 0.84% increase as of January 15, 9:39 AM, and has attracted significant capital inflow, indicating strong investor interest in the sector [1]. Group 1: ETF Performance - The petrochemical ETF has recorded a total capital inflow of 133 million yuan over the past 10 trading days, with 8 days of net inflow [1]. - The latest share count of the petrochemical ETF reached 399 million, and its total scale hit 379 million yuan, both marking new highs since its inception [1]. Group 2: Industry Outlook - Financial Street Securities' chief economist, Zhang Yi, identifies the chemical industry as the most promising sector for the "14th Five-Year Plan" starting year of 2026 [1]. - The chemical industry in China is characterized by a favorable competitive landscape, with state-owned enterprises like Sinopec leading, alongside local state-owned and private enterprises, and significant foreign investment in capacity transfer [1]. - The industry is noted for its high "Know-How" requirements, and after over two decades of urbanization and industrialization, China's chemical sector has developed strong international competitiveness in terms of cost and efficiency [1]. - Current valuations in the chemical industry are considered reasonable, and it may be at the bottom of an investment cycle [1]. Group 3: Sector Composition - The petrochemical ETF closely tracks the CSI Petrochemical Industry Index, with the basic chemical sector accounting for 59.23% and the oil and petrochemical sector for 32.60% of the index [1]. - The industry is expected to shift from "quantity" expansion to "quality" improvement in the new five-year plan, with clear growth themes emerging [1].

截至2026年1月14日9:40，中证石化产业指数(H11057)上涨0.67%，成分股桐昆股份上涨7.38%，新凤鸣 上涨6.46%，广东宏大上涨4.33%，恒逸石化上涨3.40%，宝丰能源上涨2.68%。石化ETF(159731)上涨 0.74%，最新价报0.95元。从资金净流入方面来看，石化ETF近5天获得连续资金净流入，合计"吸 金"9466.42万元。石化ETF最新份额达3.67亿份，最新规模达3.48亿元，创近1年新高。 （以上所列股票仅为指数成份股，无特定推荐之意） 截至1月13日，石化ETF近2年净值上涨51.59%。从收益能力看，截至2026年1月13日，石化ETF自成立 以来，最高单月回报为15.86%，最长连涨月数为8个月，最长连涨涨幅为41.60%，上涨月份平均收益率 为5.25%。截至2026年1月13日，石化ETF近1年超越基准年化收益为2.19%。 银河证券认为，当前原油市场在区域冲突、供需过剩预期之间博弈，预计短期Brent 原油价格将在60-65 美元/桶区间运行。建议后续密切关注区域局势、OPEC+产量政策、全球贸易争端指引等。 石化ETF(159731)紧密跟踪中证石化产 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company is establishing a joint venture, Hunan Guoke Hongguan Technology Co., Ltd., in the first half of 2025, focusing on the research, production, and sales of high-precision, low-cost laser gyroscopes and related products [1] Group 1 - The company is committed to transforming towards defense equipment while maintaining its existing business [1] - The establishment of the joint venture aims to enhance the company's defense equipment business and improve its core competitiveness [1] - The company is focused on extending and perfecting its defense equipment business supply chain [1]

证券日报网讯1月13日，广东宏大（002683）在互动平台回答投资者提问时表示，公司始终坚信科技创 新是驱动发展的核心动力，并对太空计算等前沿领域的长期战略价值保持关注。未来业务布局方面，公 司将继续聚焦主业，严格遵循审慎评估、风险可控原则有序推进。 ...