低利率时代已悄然而至。近年来，受经济周期、宏观政策、金融结构和银行经营战略等多重因素影响， 我国金融市场进入低利率时代，对企业融资、资本市场运行乃至全球经济增长产生了深远的影响，也深 刻影响着普通投资者的财富管理策略。 在当前资本市场的复杂环境中，投资者对于稳定回报的需求愈发强烈。高股息率的股票因其稳定的现金 回报和相对较低的风险，成为许多投资者的首选。作为国内领先的综合性电力企业，国投电力 （600886）控股股份有限公司(以下简称"国投电力")是高股息上市公司的典型代表，凭借其高股息政策 和稳健的经营业绩，成为资本市场上备受关注的投资标的。 高股息标的是资产配置重要组成部分 2025年，迈入低利率时代的进程，正在加速。今年两会期间，中国人民银行行长3月6日对外表示，今年 将根据国内外经济金融形势和金融市场运行情况，择机降准降息。 国债利率保持在低位。根据财政部安排，2025年第一期和第二期储蓄国债(凭证式)从3月10日至19日发 行，其中：第一期国债发行额为150亿元，期限3年，票面年利率为1.93%；第二期国债发行额为150亿 元，期限5年，票面年利率为2.0%。 投资是一门复杂学科。在当前资本市场的复 ...

行 业 研 究 2025 年 05 月 06 日 电力供需转向宽松，重视盈利稳定品种 ——行业投资策略 投资评级：看好（维持） 行业走势图 相关研究报告 《政策助力预期企稳，静待绿电触底 回升—行业投资策略》-2025.2.19 《电力系统转型持续推进，兼具周期 红利成长属性 —电力行业 2025 年度 投资策略》-2024.11.8 《电力系统转型持续推进，兼具周期 红利成长属性—电力行业 2025年度投 资策略》-2024.11.7 周磊（分析师） zhoulei1@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790524090002 行业回顾：电力需求稳定，电源电网投资持续增长 2024 年全社会用电量 9.87 万亿千瓦时，yoy+7.0%；电源投资额 1.17 万亿元， yoy+20.8%；电网投资额 6083 亿元，yoy+15.3%。截至 2025 年 4 月 30，公用事 业板块累计下跌 2.9%，在 31 个一级行业中排名第 19；电力板块累计下跌 2.3%， 电网设备板块累计下跌 5.4%，分别在 124 个二级行业中排名第 68 和第 87。 电力：成本下行、政策出台改善盈利预期，息差扩张提高红利配 ...

Group 1 - The liquidity of the green power ETF showed a turnover of 2.76% with a transaction volume of 10.0083 million yuan [2] - The green power ETF experienced a significant growth in scale, increasing by 165 million yuan over the past three months [2] - In terms of shares, the green power ETF saw an increase of 18.4 million shares in the last month, indicating substantial growth [2] Group 2 - The latest net inflow of funds into the green power ETF was 9.3737 million yuan, with a total of 19.8745 million yuan accumulated over the last 18 trading days [2] - The price-to-earnings ratio (PE-TTM) of the index tracked by the green power ETF is currently at 18.37, which is in the 12.08% percentile over the past three years, indicating a historical low valuation [2] - As of April 30, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the National Green Power Index account for 58.04% of the index, including major companies like Yangtze Power and China Nuclear Power [2] Group 3 - The domestic public bidding market for wind power in Q1 2025 saw a new bidding volume of 28.6 GW, representing a year-on-year increase of 22.7% [3] - Wind turbine exports from China reached 14.6 million USD in March, with a month-on-month increase of 86.81% and a year-on-year increase of 50.54% [3] - The international bidding volume for Chinese wind turbine manufacturers is projected to reach 27.63 GW in 2024, showing a nearly 200% year-on-year growth [3]

丨证券研究报告丨 行业研究丨点评报告丨公用事业 [Table_Title] 核电审批维持高位，景气上行再获确认 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 4 月 27 日，国务院召开的常务会议决定核准浙江三门三期工程等 10 台核电机组。其中，广核 集团 4 台机组获得核准，中国核电、国家核电、华能核电分别有 2 台机组获得核准。此次核准 完成后，中广核集团与中国核电核准在建及待建机组分别达到 20 台、19 台，国家核电以及华 能核电在建项目将分别达到 9 台和 7 台。本次核准项目中 8 台机组均采用"华龙一号"技术。 随着"华龙一号"机组的持续投产入列，核电上市公司的 ROE 水平有望同步得到提振。随着 核电建设的加速，中国核电、中国广核等上市公司有望深度受益于行业的景气度提升。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] SAC：S0490517080003 SAC：S0490520120001 SAC：S0490520110001 SAC：S0490523080003 SFC：BQT627 张韦华 司旗 宋尚骞 刘亚辉 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.955 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the utility sector is "Positive" [2] Core Insights - The utility sector underperformed the market, with a decline of 2.1% as of April 30, compared to a 0.4% drop in the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index [3][11] - The approval of 10 new nuclear power units in China indicates a continued commitment to nuclear energy development [4] - Natural gas consumption in March 2025 showed a slight year-on-year increase of 0.1%, reaching 35.79 billion cubic meters [4] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The utility sector's performance was below the market average, with the electricity sector down 2.21% and the gas sector down 0.95% [3][11] - The top-performing sectors included media and computer industries, while real estate and social services lagged [11] Electricity Industry Data Tracking - The price of thermal coal at Qinhuangdao Port (Q5500) was 652 CNY/ton, down 7 CNY/ton week-on-week [3][21] - Coal inventory at Qinhuangdao Port decreased to 6.86 million tons, a reduction of 60,000 tons week-on-week [27] - Daily coal consumption in inland provinces was 2.777 million tons, down 184,000 tons/day week-on-week [31] Natural Gas Industry Data Tracking - The LNG ex-factory price index was 4,513 CNY/ton, a year-on-year increase of 5.12% but a slight decrease of 0.13% week-on-week [4][54] - In March 2025, domestic natural gas production was 22.68 billion cubic meters, up 5.0% year-on-year [4] - The EU's natural gas supply increased by 3.4% year-on-year, reaching 6.41 billion cubic meters [4] Key Industry News - The approval of 10 new nuclear power units reflects a stable pace of nuclear project approvals in China [4] - The slight increase in natural gas consumption in March 2025 suggests a recovery trend in the sector [4] Investment Recommendations - The electricity sector is expected to see profit improvement and value reassessment due to ongoing supply-demand tensions [4] - Recommended stocks include major coal-fired power leaders and hydropower operators, as well as companies involved in coal power equipment manufacturing [4]

核电核准 10 台再提速，3 月全国天然气表观消费量同比增长 0.1% 【】【】[Table_Industry] 公用事业—电力天然气周报 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 5 月 4 日 15666646523.tcy 证券研究报告 行业研究——周报 [Table_ReportType] 行业周报 [Table_StockAndRank] 公用事业 投资评级 看好 上次评级 看好 [Table_Author] 左前明 能源行业首席分析师 执业编号：S1500518070001 联系电话：010-83326712 邮 箱：zuoqianming@cindasc.com 李春驰 电力公用联席首席分析师 执业编号：S1500522070001 联系电话：010-83326723 邮 箱：lichunchi@cindasc.com 邢秦浩 电力公用分析师 化工行业： 执业编号：S1500524080001 联系电话：010-83326712 邮 箱：xingqinhao@cindasc.com 唐婵玉 电力公用研究助理 邮 箱：tangchanyu@cindasc.com 信达证券股份有限公司 C ...

Group 1 - The China Power Utility Index has seen a decline of 0.85% as of April 30, 2025, with mixed performance among constituent stocks, including Shenzhen Energy leading with a rise of 2.73% [1] - The Power ETF (159611) has shown a cumulative increase of 0.63% over the past week, with a trading volume of 188 million yuan and a turnover rate of 5.64% on the latest trading day [1] - The Power ETF has experienced significant growth in scale, increasing by 1.641 billion yuan over the past six months, ranking first among comparable funds [1] Group 2 - The top ten weighted stocks in the China Power Utility Index account for 55.94% of the index, with major players including Changjiang Electric Power and China Nuclear Power [2] - The five major power generation groups reported profits in 2024, with Guodian Power distributing cash dividends of 3.567 billion yuan, representing 36.28% of its net profit [2] - The power and utility sector is recognized for its stability and defensive characteristics, with expectations for favorable fiscal and monetary policies in 2025 to support high dividend, low valuation assets [2] Group 3 - The National Energy Administration anticipates a rapid increase in national electricity load during the summer of 2025, with a projected year-on-year increase of approximately 10 million kilowatts [3] - The total electricity consumption in China is expected to reach 10.4 trillion kilowatt-hours in 2025, with a growth rate of around 6% [3] - Recommendations have been made to focus on investment opportunities in the power sector, particularly in light of potential supply pressures during peak periods [3]

Group 1 - The National Green Power Index has decreased by 0.61% as of April 30, 2025, with mixed performance among constituent stocks, where Shenzhen Energy led with a rise of 3.21% [1] - The Green Power ETF (159625) has seen a significant increase in scale, growing by 23.4 million yuan this month, and its shares have increased by 21.2 million [3] - The latest price-to-earnings ratio (PE-TTM) for the Green Power ETF is 18.26, indicating it is at a historical low, being below 88.82% of the time over the past three years [3] Group 2 - The National Energy Administration reported a rapid growth in non-fossil energy generation capacity in the first quarter, with wind and solar power capacity increasing by 17.2% and 43.4% year-on-year, respectively [3] - Coal prices have dropped to around 665 yuan per ton, which is expected to improve profitability for thermal power generation [4] - Companies are advised to focus on investment opportunities in the power sector, particularly in undervalued green energy stocks and thermal power [4]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant adjustments made by fund manager Guo Fei of China Jianyin Investment in his fund portfolios during the first quarter of 2025, highlighting a shift towards value-style investments and increased holdings in banking and consumer-related stocks [2][3][6]. Fund Performance and Adjustments - Guo Fei's funds have seen a notable shift in their investment strategy, moving away from previously held growth stocks like Dongfang Yuhong and Guizhou Moutai, and instead focusing on banks and industrial stocks [3][6]. - The fund "Jianyin Growth 30" has outperformed its benchmark over the past year, indicating a successful strategy shift that has led to positive returns for investors [3][4]. Asset Allocation Changes - As of the end of Q1 2025, Guo Fei's managed funds totaled 70.23 billion yuan, a decrease of 8.24 billion yuan from the previous quarter [4]. - The equity asset allocation in "Jianyin Growth 30" increased to 80.59%, up over 11% from the previous quarter, reflecting a significant increase in stock holdings [5]. Stock Selection and Concentration - Guo Fei's recent adjustments include adding four new stocks to his portfolio, specifically two bank stocks and two industrial stocks, while reducing positions in previously held stocks like Agricultural Bank of China [6][8]. - The concentration of holdings in "Jianyin Growth 30" reached a three-year high of 70.66%, indicating a more focused investment strategy [7]. Investment Philosophy and Market Outlook - Guo Fei emphasizes a belief in the cyclical nature of the market, stating that while the timing of economic recovery is uncertain, he remains confident in the eventual return of cycles and shareholder returns [16][17]. - For Q2 2025, Guo Fei plans to maintain a focus on stable assets with sustainable returns while temporarily avoiding overseas companies due to concerns about the inventory cycle [16][17].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Guotou Electric Power is "Buy" [1] Core Views - The company reported stable performance in 2024 with a revenue of 57.819 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.95%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 6.643 billion yuan, a slight decline of 0.92% [2][4] - The company’s hydropower segment showed significant growth due to abundant water resources, while thermal power benefited from new unit production and reduced coal costs, leading to a notable recovery in profitability [2][6] - The outlook for the company remains positive, with expectations of significant growth in hydropower performance and continued improvement in thermal power due to increased electricity generation and cost reductions [8] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved total revenue of 57.819 billion yuan, with a net profit of 6.643 billion yuan, and cash flow from operating activities increased by 15.93% to 24.657 billion yuan [2][7] - For Q1 2025, the company reported revenue of 13.122 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 6.99%, but net profit increased by 2.01% to 2.078 billion yuan [2] Segment Analysis - Hydropower: In 2024, the hydropower segment generated revenue of 26.624 billion yuan, a 4.1% increase, with a gross profit of 16.395 billion yuan, up 6.6% [4] - Thermal Power: The thermal power segment saw revenue of 21.775 billion yuan, a decline of 4.8%, but gross profit increased by 20.5% to 2.972 billion yuan [4] - New Energy: Revenue from new energy was 4.848 billion yuan, a 6.4% increase, but gross profit decreased by 13% to 2.234 billion yuan [4] Future Outlook - The company is expected to see significant growth in hydropower due to improved water conditions and the release of generation capacity from new projects [6][8] - The forecast for net profit from 2025 to 2027 is 7.188 billion yuan, 7.477 billion yuan, and 7.623 billion yuan, respectively, indicating growth rates of 8.2%, 4.0%, and 2.0% [8]