研究报告 Research Report 3 Mar 2026 中国必需消费 China (A-share) Staples 中国必选消费 26 年 3 月投资观点：春播正当时 It's the Prime Time for Spring Planting [Table_yemei1] 观点聚焦 Investment Focus | [Table_Info] | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 股票名称 | 评级 | 股票名称 | 评级 | | 贵州茅台 | Outperform 古井贡酒 | | Outperform | | 贵州茅台 | Outperform 今世缘 | | Outperform | | 五粮液 | Outperform 燕京啤酒 | | Outperform | | 五粮液 | Outperform 安琪酵母 | | Outperform | | 海天味业 | Outperform 安井食品 | | Outperform | | 海天味业 | Outperform 安井食品 | | Outperform | | 山西汾酒 | Outperform 迎驾 ...

研究报告 Research Report 3 Mar 2026 中国必需消费 China (A-share) Staples 中国必选消费 26 年 3 月投资观点：春播正当时 It's the Prime Time for Spring Planting [Table_yemei1] 观点聚焦 Investment Focus | [Table_Info] | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 股票名称 | 评级 | 股票名称 | 评级 | | 贵州茅台 | Outperform 古井贡酒 | | Outperform | | 贵州茅台 | Outperform 今世缘 | | Outperform | | 五粮液 | Outperform 燕京啤酒 | | Outperform | | 五粮液 | Outperform 安琪酵母 | | Outperform | | 海天味业 | Outperform 安井食品 | | Outperform | | 海天味业 | Outperform 安井食品 | | Outperform | | 山西汾酒 | Outperform 迎驾 ...

公 司 研 究 引领变革，拐点可期 海天味业(603288) 海天味业（603288）跟踪报告 | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 訾猛(分析师) | 021-38676442 | zimeng@gtht.com | S0880513120002 | | 颜慧菁(分析师) | 021-23183952 | yanhuijing@gtht.com | S0880525040022 | | 徐洋(分析师) | 021-38032032 | xuyang6@gtht.com | S0880520120008 | 本报告导读： 引领"餐饮解决方案"及"复调"商业模式并举将保障公司中长期超额收益，同时 我们预计新一轮提价潮即将到来，顺势而为有望实现"量价齐升"。 投资要点： 风险提示：餐饮需求复苏不及预期；渠道扩张乏力；食安风险等 | [Table_Finance] 财务摘要(百万元) | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | - ...

国泰海通晨报 2026 年 03 月 03 日 国泰海通证券股份有限公司 研究所 [汤蔚翔 Table_Authors] (分析师) 电话：021-38676172 邮箱：tangweixiang@gtht.com 登记编号：S0880511010007 [Table_Summary] 1、【策略研究】：热点主题交易热度节后回升，金属资源品主题普涨，AI 应用主题回调。中东战 火强化能源资源价格，Token 出海成为 AI 投资新叙事，重视两会内需方向增量政策。 2、【汽车研究】汽车：展望 2026 年，乘用车销量预计温和增长，新能源高端化趋势明确，细分 市场供给加速释放。我们看好全球化布局领先、高端化表现亮眼、智能化能力突出的车企。 3、【固定收益研究】：战争冲击对债券的影响往往呈现"短期避险—中期再定价"的阶段切换， 判断持续性需同时跟踪通胀/财政路径与尾部风险指标，而非仅看单一期限利率点位。 4、【食品饮料研究】海天味业：引领"餐饮解决方案"及"复调"商业模式并举将保障公司中长 期超额收益，同时我们预计新一轮提价潮即将到来，顺势而为有望实现"量价齐升"。 5、【海外科技研究】MINIMAX-WP：极致性 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the essential consumer goods sector in China is "Outperform" for multiple companies including Guizhou Moutai, Wuliangye, and Yili [1]. Core Insights - In February 2026, five out of eight tracked essential consumer goods sectors showed positive growth, while two experienced negative growth and one remained flat. The sectors with growth included frozen food, condiments, beer, catering, and soft drinks, while premium and above baijiu and dairy products saw declines. The improvement in data is attributed to the extended Spring Festival holiday and increased travel enthusiasm, which boosted demand for catering and related supply chain products [3][18]. Summary by Sector Baijiu Sector - **Premium and Above Baijiu**: Revenue reached RMB 44.0 billion in February, down 14.6% year-on-year. Cumulative revenue for January-February was RMB 91.0 billion, a decrease of 14.2% year-on-year. The sector faced pressure on both volume and price due to reliance on business consumption and numerous brands affecting price control [4][19]. - **Mass-Market and Below Baijiu**: Revenue was RMB 17.4 billion in February, flat year-on-year. Cumulative revenue for January-February was RMB 40.3 billion, down 1.7% year-on-year. The prices of mass-market baijiu showed signs of stabilization, attributed to its inelastic demand and balanced producer-distributor relationships [20]. Beer Sector - Revenue in the beer sector was RMB 15.2 billion in February, up 5.6% year-on-year. Cumulative revenue for January-February was RMB 32.2 billion, down 1.5% year-on-year. The sector benefited from seasonal factors and increased demand in lower-tier markets, with the RMB 8-10 price segment driving revenue growth [21]. Condiments Sector - Revenue in the condiments sector was RMB 41.5 billion in February, up 5.6% year-on-year, marking the third consecutive month of growth. Cumulative revenue for January-February was RMB 88.4 billion, up 4.5% year-on-year. The recovery in catering channels and increased inventory replenishment contributed to this growth [22]. Dairy Products Sector - Revenue in the dairy sector was RMB 41.5 billion in February, down 1.2% year-on-year. Cumulative revenue for January-February was RMB 85.0 billion, flat year-on-year. Despite ongoing pressure, there was a noticeable recovery in catering consumption and gifting needs during the Spring Festival [23]. Frozen Food Sector - Revenue in the frozen food sector was RMB 14.0 billion in February, up 8.9% year-on-year, also marking the third consecutive month of growth. Cumulative revenue for January-February was RMB 29.0 billion, up 8.5% year-on-year. The sector's performance was supported by Spring Festival stockpiling and increased demand from small B-end clients [24]. Soft Drinks Sector - Revenue in the soft drinks sector was RMB 49.8 billion in February, up 2.3% year-on-year. Cumulative revenue for January-February was RMB 146.0 billion, up 1.5% year-on-year. The sector faced intensifying market competition, reflected in the discount rates for products [26]. Catering Sector - Revenue in the catering sector was RMB 14.0 billion in February, up 4.9% year-on-year, achieving its third consecutive month of growth. Cumulative revenue for January-February was RMB 30.2 billion, up 3.6% year-on-year. The sector benefited from the extended Spring Festival holiday, although profitability remained under pressure [27].

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - **Consumer Sector**: The consumer sector, particularly mass dining and service consumption, continues to show a recovery trend. High-end consumption, including luxury goods and high-end jewelry, is performing even stronger, with some indicators exceeding expectations, reflecting a structural recovery in the consumer market [1][2]. Key Insights and Arguments - **Travel and Hospitality**: The travel chain significantly benefited from the longest Spring Festival in history, with hotel Average Daily Rate (ADR) increasing. Family travel demand is prominent, driven by the return home trend, quality scenic dining, and "reverse New Year" celebrations in first-tier cities [1][2]. - **Luxury Goods and Jewelry**: There is a clear differentiation in jewelry and luxury goods consumption, heavily influenced by high gold prices. Luxury goods consumption is relatively stronger, with high-end shopping district data exceeding expectations. The focus is on brand share improvement opportunities, as some brands are pressured by gold prices, creating structural opportunities for share changes [1][3]. - **Medical Aesthetics**: During the Spring Festival, medical aesthetics saw a double-digit increase in customer flow, although average prices were under pressure. Products like collagen water light and related offerings are expected to benefit from a robust pipeline and expanding market size. High-demand categories are likely to continue benefiting, necessitating tracking of certification rhythms and profit balance in the supply chain [1][3]. - **Cosmetics Sector**: The cosmetics sector is expected to see an upward trend around the March 8th node. Notable performance was observed in the China Resources system, particularly with the brand Mao Ge Ping. The investment strategy leans towards "momentum varieties" and "bottom stocks with share improvement," focusing on key companies [1][4]. Additional Important Insights - **Export Chain Dynamics**: The export chain is expected to see excess growth driven by "new products + new capacity deployment." The short-term key factor is the RMB exchange rate, which influences month-on-month changes. Companies with new capacity or product lines are prioritized for attention [2][4]. - **Tobacco Sector Changes**: The tobacco sector is undergoing significant changes due to adjustments in the international system by China National Tobacco. The removal of intermediaries in the domestic duty-free market is expected to enhance profits by approximately 3-5 percentage points [5]. - **Carbon Trading Opportunities**: The importance of carbon trading is increasing, driven by initiatives in Europe and the introduction of carbon tax mechanisms in domestic industries like steel and cement. Companies involved in carbon trading development, such as Yueyang Forest Paper and Yong'an Forestry, are worth monitoring for new business growth opportunities [6]. - **Pork Price Trends**: As of February 26, 2026, the average price of pork is approximately 10.7 CNY/kg, down 1 CNY from pre-Spring Festival levels. The market is expected to stabilize between 10.5-11.5 CNY/kg in the coming months, supported by potential state stockpiling and market entry by new players [10][11]. Investment Recommendations - **Consumer Sector**: Focus on the restaurant chain as a core direction, recommending companies like Anjiu and Yihai, while also considering those with accelerated store opening expectations. The snack sector remains promising, particularly in volume sales channels, with companies like Weilong and Salted Fish being highlighted for their investment value [14]. - **Medical Aesthetics and Cosmetics**: Companies with robust pipelines and market expansion potential should be closely monitored, particularly in the medical aesthetics sector [3][4]. This summary encapsulates the key points from the conference call records, providing insights into the consumer sector's recovery, investment opportunities, and market dynamics.

Global Markets Strategy 24 February 2026 This material is neither intended to be distributed to Mainland China investors nor to provide securities investment consultancy services within the territory of Mainland China. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. China Equity Strategy Eye on "Brittle Youth" spending The term "Brittle Youth" (脆皮青年) broadly refers to young adults in Mainland China facing stressful work-life balance ...

食品饮料行业 行业研究 | 行业周报 食品饮料：继续强调上游主线 食品饮料行业周报 核心观点 投资建议与投资标的 投资建议：先上游，再下游。 上游主线一：农产品加工。1）泛糖加工：推荐中粮糖业(600737，买入)、相关标的冠农 股份(600251，未评级)；2）果汁加工：相关标的安德利(605198，未评级)、安德利果汁 (02218，未评级)；3）牧业：推荐优然牧业(09858，买入)、相关标的现代牧业(01117， 未评级)； 上游主线二：食品原料供应商。生物提取：推荐安琪酵母(600298，买入)、百润股份 (002568，买入)，相关标的晨光生物(300138，未评级)、华宝国际(00336，未评级)、阜 丰集团(00546，未评级)；2）功能糖：相关标的华康股份(605077，未评级)、保龄宝 (002286，未评级)、三元生物(301206，未评级)、百龙创园(605016，未评级)； 下游主线：1）白酒，推荐山西汾酒(600809，买入)、贵州茅台(600519，买入)、今世缘 (603369，买入)、舍得酒业(600702，买入)；2）餐饮供应链、啤酒：关注估值抬升后业 绩兑现情况，推荐港股 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the food and beverage sector for 2026, particularly focusing on cyclical opportunities in the liquor and restaurant supply chain [2][6]. Core Insights - The liquor sector is expected to see a recovery, with Moutai prices stabilizing in the first quarter, indicating a turning point in the current cycle. The report anticipates a concentration trend in the industry, favoring leading companies capable of national expansion and those with regional consolidation potential [2][6]. - The report highlights a structural improvement in the mass food sub-sector, with competition shifting from price to quality, and a gradual balance in supply and demand. It predicts a sequential improvement in food CPI [2][6][8]. Summary by Sections Liquor Sector - As of March 1, Moutai's bottle price is 1650 RMB, and the case price is 1680 RMB, remaining stable post-Spring Festival. The overall sales volume for the liquor industry during the Spring Festival is expected to decline by 10%-20% year-on-year, slightly better than market expectations [7]. - The report notes significant differentiation and concentration in the market, with high-end liquor performing exceptionally well. Moutai's sales volume is projected to increase by over 30% year-on-year during the Spring Festival, while Wuliangye is expected to see a 5%-10% increase [7]. - The industry is entering a significant destocking phase, with leading brands' inventory levels notably lower than the previous year. The report concludes that the fundamentals for top brands (Moutai, Wuliangye, Luzhou Laojiao, and Shanxi Fenjiu) have bottomed out [7]. Mass Food Sector - The mass food sub-sector is showing structural improvements, with companies expected to recover due to their cyclical attributes and low valuations. Key recommendations include companies in the restaurant supply chain, such as Anjijia Food, Qianhe Flavoring, and Tianwei Food [8][9]. - The dairy industry is anticipated to see further optimization in supply and demand dynamics, with long-term growth potential in deep-processed products and low-temperature milk. Recommended companies include Yili and New Dairy [9]. Market Performance - The food and beverage sector underperformed the market, with a decline of 1.54% last week, while the liquor segment fell by 2.26%. The report ranks the food and beverage sector 29th among 31 sub-sectors [5][28]. - The report provides a detailed analysis of various sub-sectors, indicating that the liquor sector has faced significant challenges, with white liquor underperforming the market by 5.06 percentage points [28].

机构：中信建投证券 研究员：赵然/何泾威 核心观点 受益于港股市场交投活跃度显著提升及IPO募资规模重登全球榜首，港交所2025 年业绩创历史新高，盈 利能力持续增强。 现货业务为核心增长引擎，商品及数据连接业务稳健发展，收入结构持续优化。展望未来，A+H 上市 热潮延续，科企专线制度创新成效显著，债券业务生态链布局启动，将进一步提升盈利确定性与业务多 元性。当前估值处于历史相对低位，具备较高安全边际与投资性价比。 事件 2 月26 日，香港交易所公布2025 年业绩情况。 2025 年，公司收入及其他收益同比增长30.33%至291.61 亿港元，其中非投资业务收入同比增长37.30% 至238.62 亿港元，营运支出同比增长5.33%至60.68 亿港元，EBITDA 同比增长40.02%至227.96 亿港 元，归母净利润同比增长36.05%至177.54亿港元。 简评 受益于港股市场交投活跃，公司业绩创下历史新高2025 年全年，受宏观经济基本面转好、政策红利释 放、国内产业结构升级与全球流动性改善等多重因素共同作用，港股市场交投情绪维持高位。公司收入 及其他收益同比增长30.33%至291.61 亿 ...