Market Overview - On February 19, U.S. stock indices fell collectively due to multiple negative factors, including tightening liquidity in the private credit industry and escalating geopolitical tensions between the U.S. and Iran. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped by 267.5 points, a decline of 0.54%, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite fell by 0.28% and 0.31%, respectively, with the Nasdaq experiencing a cumulative decline of over 2% since 2026 [1][2]. Private Credit Industry - A liquidity crisis in the private credit sector was a core reason for the market's weakness. Blue Owl Capital announced the sale of $1.4 billion in loan assets and tightened investor liquidity, leading to a significant drop in its stock price by 1%. This triggered a collective decline in the private credit sector, with major firms like Blackstone and Apollo Global Management seeing their stock prices fall by over 5% [2][3]. Geopolitical Tensions - The geopolitical tension between the U.S. and Iran has become another major market disturbance. President Trump indicated a decision on potential military action against Iran would be made within ten days, which has heightened investor caution and led to a general sell-off of risk assets [3]. Corporate Earnings and Guidance - Discrepancies in corporate earnings and guidance have intensified market volatility. Walmart's fourth-quarter revenue and profit exceeded expectations, but its annual profit guidance fell short, resulting in a stock price drop of over 1%. In contrast, Amazon surpassed Walmart in projected net sales for 2025, reaching $716.9 billion [4]. Economic Data - Recent economic data showed initial jobless claims in the U.S. fell to 206,000, significantly below expectations, indicating resilience in the labor market. The Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index rose to 16.3, the highest since September of the previous year. However, the trade deficit unexpectedly widened to $70.3 billion in December 2025, with the annual goods trade deficit reaching a record $1.2409 trillion, an increase of $25.5 billion or 2.1% from the previous year [4]. Market Sentiment - According to a recent survey by the American Association of Individual Investors, the proportion of bearish retail investors has exceeded bullish investors for the first time since November of the previous year, with bearish, bullish, and neutral sentiments at 36.9%, 34.5%, and 28.5%, respectively. This reflects a growing caution among investors [5]. Sector Rotation - The U.S. stock market is undergoing a rotation in leading sectors. Excluding the top companies, other stocks in the S&P 500 are in urgent need of earnings momentum. Despite a decline in valuations for the "Magnificent Seven," their price-to-sales ratios remain at historical highs, indicating they are not in undervalued territory [5].

Why is Dow Jones down today: The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 271.87 points to 49,390.79, down 0.55% in Thursday trading, as investors reacted to Markets gave back part of Wednesday’s rally as traders reassessed risk. Crude oil prices jumped more than 2%. Asset management stocks sold off sharply. The market reaction came despite strong quarterly results from Walmart, which beat Wall Street expectations in the fourth quarter. However, the company’s full-year earnings outlook disappointed investors.Soft ...

溢价成交：2020年建纽卡斯尔型据称达7,400万–7,500万美元 据经纪商披露，新加坡干散货船东Berge Bulk Maritime正向韩国买家出售一艘纽卡斯尔型散货船——"Berge Moldoveanu"轮（约208,000载重吨，2020年建 造，渤海造船建造），成交价据称为7,400万至7,500万美元，明显高于其估值水平。 航运数据平台VesselsValue对该轮的估值约为7,140万美元，意味着买家为促成交易支付了溢价。经纪商认为，促使Berge Bulk在该轮完成坞修不久即决定 出售的关键因素之一，正是买家愿意在价格上作出额外让步。 | PHO METHER WHERELL. POR METHORIONAME BY IN | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Ship Name | BERGE MOLDOVEANU | | | | Ship Type Bulk Carrier | | | | | | IMO/LR No. | 9843390 | | | | G ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information regarding the report industry investment rating is provided in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report - The pre - holiday freight rate drive is weak, and the near - term 04 contract is expected to fluctuate. Attention should be paid to whether the shipping companies' price - holding measures are implemented after the holiday. The cancellation of VAT export tax rebates for products such as photovoltaics may disrupt the shipping rhythm and the pricing strategies of shipping companies. It is necessary to monitor whether the freight volume from the Far East to Europe in February and March can increase significantly and whether the actual freight rate will be firmer than in normal years. The 04 contract's volatility is expected to increase, and investors are advised to participate with caution. Shipping companies usually issue price - increase letters in March and April to stabilize prices. As of now, it is still unclear whether the price increase in March will succeed. If the price increase is successful in early March, the valuation bottom of the EC2604 contract may rise. The long - term contracts face intense speculation on the resumption time, and the volatility is expected to remain high. The resumption of the Suez Canal is expected to be a gradual process. If it does not resume in the first half of 2026, the pressure on the shipping capacity in the first half of the year will be relatively controllable, and higher freight rates can be expected. Investors can consider the arbitrage opportunity of going long on EC2606 and short on EC2610 [5][6][7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs I. Futures Prices - As of February 12, 2026, the total open interest of all container shipping index European line futures contracts is 54,481.00 lots, and the daily trading volume is 42,518.00 lots. The closing prices of EC2604, EC2606, EC2608, EC2610, and EC2512 contracts are 1258.90, 1566.10, 1632.00, 1131.10, and 1425.40 respectively [8]. II. Spot Prices - On February 6, the SCFI (Shanghai - Europe route) price was 1403 US dollars/TEU, the SCFI (Shanghai - West Coast of the United States) price was 1801 US dollars/FEU, and the SCFI (Shanghai - East Coast of the United States) price was 2530 US dollars/FEU. On February 9, the SCFIS (Shanghai - Europe) was 1657.94 points, and the SCFIS (Shanghai - West Coast of the United States) was 1155.66 points [8]. III. Container Ship Capacity Supply - **Static Supply**: As of January 31, 2026, 6 container ships with a total capacity of 46,950 TEU have been delivered in 2026. Among them, 2 ships with a capacity of 12,000 - 16,999 TEU and 1 ship with a capacity of over 17,000 TEU have been delivered. In terms of delivery expectations, for ships with a capacity of 12,000 - 16,999 TEU, 737,400 TEU (50 ships) are expected to be delivered in the remaining months of 2026, 944,600 TEU (64 ships) in 2027, 1,212,000 TEU (82 ships) in 2028, and 415,400 TEU (29 ships) in 2029. For ships with a capacity of over 17,000 TEU, 192,900 TEU (8 ships) are expected to be delivered in the remaining months of 2026, 862,800 TEU (40 ships) in 2027, 1,603,000 TEU (80 ships) in 2028, and 1,261,500 TEU (77 ships) in 2029. The delivery pressure of ultra - large ships in 2026 is relatively small, and only 4 ships with a capacity of over 17,000 TEU will be delivered in the first half of 2026 [3]. - **Dynamic Supply**: In the remaining three weeks of February, the average weekly capacity is 271,600 TEU, with capacities of 366,600 TEU, 259,800 TEU, and 188,300 TEU in Weeks 7, 8, and 9 respectively. In March, the average weekly capacity is 288,400 TEU, with capacities of 158,300 TEU, 365,200 TEU, 304,700 TEU, 320,400 TEU, and 293,500 TEU in Weeks 10 - 14 respectively. In April, the average weekly capacity is 274,700 TEU, with capacities of 295,500 TEU, 294,400 TEU, 263,500 TEU, and 245,400 TEU in Weeks 15 - 18 respectively. There are 13 blank sailings in February (6 by the OA Alliance, 6 by the PA Alliance, and 1 by the Gemini Alliance), 7 blank sailings and 3 TBNs in March, and 1 blank sailing and 4 TBNs in April [4]. IV. Supply Chain - The resumption of the Suez Canal is expected to be a gradual process. COSCO management indicates that there is still no clear schedule for the full resumption of the Red Sea route. It may take 3 - 5 months from the attempt to full resumption. Multiple conditions need to be met for the resumption of the Red Sea route, including industry association assessment, insurance premium reduction, customer recognition of safety, and internal consensus within the alliance. Currently, the detour has become the new normal for the customer supply chain, and COSCO is cautious about returning to the Red Sea. Since mid - February 2026, Maersk's ME11 route will be structurally adjusted to transit through the Red Sea and the Suez Canal. If possible, Maersk will also adjust the AE12 and AE15 services in the subsequent stage to pass through the Red Sea and the Suez Canal [7]. V. Demand and European Economy No specific content related to demand and European economy is provided in the given text other than the figures mentioned in the catalog.

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - The spot freight rate is fluctuating. With the approaching of the Spring Festival and the uncertainty of the geopolitical situation, the market may fluctuate under the background of decreasing positions. Attention should be paid to the MSK online cabin opening and the actual loading situation of shipping companies during the holiday, as well as the resumption of navigation in the Suez Canal and the changes in the Middle East situation, and the support of the off - season rush shipment of products such as photovoltaics to the market. The market is expected to be volatile and the positions on the disk may continue to decrease [1][3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Spot Freight and Contract Volume - Price - **Futures Contract Data**: The EC2604 contract reached a maximum of 1260 points during the session, with a daily reduction of over 2000 lots, and closed at 1258.9 points, up 6.4%. The EC2606 contract closed at 1566.1 points, up 4.78%. Other contracts also rose. Specific data of each contract such as closing price, settlement price, increase or decrease, trading volume, and open interest are provided in the table [2][8] - **Spot Freight Data**: The comprehensive index of SCFI is 1266.6 points. The Nordic route of SCFIS is 1657.94 dollars/TEU (-7.5%), and the US - West route is 1155.66 dollars/FEU (+4.9%) [9] Spot Quotation - **European Line Spot Freight**: OOCL's March online freight rate reached 3130 dollars/FEU, and other shipping companies' rates remained generally unchanged. MSK's March online freight rate increased slightly. Different shipping companies' freight rates for different routes and time periods are provided, such as GEMINI, OCEAN, MSC&PA [2][3] European Line Spot Freight Seasonal Trend - Not provided in the given content

FICC日报 | 2026-02-12 主力合约短期走势震荡，关注节后马士基3月第二周开价态 度 市场分析 线上报价方面。 Gemini Cooperation：马士基上海-鹿特丹 WEEK8 报价1210/1920，WEEK9报价 1200/1900，WEEK11报价 1205/1910（其中上海-伦敦基本港WEEK11周报价涨至1320/2100）；HPL 2月上半月船期报价1135/1835，2月下半 月船期报价1135/1835，3月份船期报价1835/2935 。HPL发布3月份涨价函1900/3100 MSC+Premier Alliance：MSC 2月上半月价格1280/2140，2月下半月船期价格1280/2140；ONE 2月上半月船期报 价1290/2035，2月下半月船期报价1290/2035，3月上半月船期报价1620/2535；HMM上海-鹿特丹2月上半月船期报 价1233/2036，2月下半月船期1233/2036 ，3月份船期报价1783/3136.MSC发布3月份涨价函1800/3000. Ocean Alliance：CMA 上海-鹿特丹2月份上半月船期价格1359/229 ...

FICC日报 | 2026-02-11 3月份涨价能否成功尚不明，主力合约短期走势震荡 市场分析 线上报价方面。 Gemini Cooperation：马士基上海-鹿特丹 WEEK7报价1270/2040，WEEK8 报价1210/1920，WEEK9报价 1200/1900，WEEK11报价1200/1900（其中上海-伦敦基本港WEEK11周报价涨至1320/2100）；HPL 2月上半月船期 报价1135/1835，2月下半月船期报价1135/1835，3月份船期报价1835/2935 。HPL发布3月份涨价函1900/3100 MSC+Premier Alliance：MSC 2月上半月价格1280/2140，2月下半月船期价格1280/2140；ONE 2月上半月船期报 价1290/2035，2月下半月船期报价1290/2035，3月上半月船期报价1620/2535；HMM上海-鹿特丹2月上半月船期报 价1233/2036，2月下半月船期1233/2036 ，3月份船期报价1783/3136.MSC发布3月份涨价函1800/3000. Ocean Alliance：CMA 上海-鹿特丹2月份上半月船 ...

2026年2月10日 欧线)。总近月关注开舱指引 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021502 郑玉洁 zhengyujie@gtht.com 黄柳楠 投资咨询从业资格号:Z0015892 huangliunan@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 表 1:集运指数(欧线)基本面数据 | 期货 | | 昨日收盘价 | 日 涨跌 | | 昨日成交 5 昨日持仓 | | | 持仓变动 昨日成交/持仓 | | 前日成交/持仓 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | EC2604 | 1.238.0 | -0. 39% | | 14. 384 | 31.132 | -295 - | 0. 46 | | 0. 94 | | | EC2606 | 1.553.0 | -0. 03% | | 2. 206 | 14.726 | -86 | 0. 15 | | 0. 33 | | | | | 本期 | | 2026/2/9 | | 单位 | | 周涨幅 | | | | SCFIS:欧洲航线 | | | 1.657.94 | | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The pre - holiday freight rate drive is weak, and the recent EC2604 contract is expected to fluctuate. Attention should be paid to the implementation of shipping companies' price - holding measures in March after the holiday. The 04 contract's volatility is expected to increase, and investors are advised to participate with caution. In normal years, shipping companies issue price - increase letters in March and April to stabilize prices. Before the Spring Festival, the overall drive is estimated to be bearish, and the short - selling direction has an advantage [4][5]. - For far - month contracts, the game over the resumption time is intense, and the volatility is expected to remain high. The resumption of the Suez Canal is expected to be a gradual process. If it does not resume in the first half of 2026, the pressure on the capacity side is expected to be relatively controllable, and the freight rate may still reach a high level. Investors can pay attention to the arbitrage opportunity of going long on EC2606 and shorting on EC2610 [6]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Futures Price - As of February 9, 2026, the total open interest of all container shipping index European line futures contracts is 56,740.00 lots, and the single - day trading volume is 17,605.00 lots. The closing prices of EC2602, EC2604, EC2606, EC2608, EC2610, and EC2512 contracts are 1756.00, 1238.00, 1553.00, 1614.80, 1126.10, and 1425.50 respectively [7]. 2. Spot Price - On February 6, the SCFI (Shanghai - Europe route) price is 1403 US dollars/TEU, the SCFI (Shanghai - US West route) price is 1801 US dollars/FEU, and the SCFI (Shanghai - US East) price is 2530 US dollars/FEU. On February 9, the SCFIS (Shanghai - Europe) is 1657.94 points, and the SCFIS (Shanghai - US West) is 1155.66 points [7]. 3. Container Ship Capacity Supply - **Static Supply**: As of January 31, 2026, 6 container ships have been delivered in 2026, with a total capacity of 46,950 TEU. 2 ships with a capacity of 12,000 - 16,999 TEU and 1 ship with a capacity of over 17,000 TEU have been delivered. In terms of delivery expectations, for 12,000 - 16,999 TEU ships, 737,400 TEU (50 ships) will be delivered in the remaining months of 2026, 944,600 TEU (64 ships) in 2027, 1,212,000 TEU (82 ships) in 2028, and 415,400 TEU (29 ships) in 2029. For ships with a capacity of over 17,000 TEU, 192,900 TEU (8 ships) will be delivered in the remaining months of 2026, 862,800 TEU (40 ships) in 2027, 1,603,000 TEU (80 ships) in 2028, and 1,261,500 TEU (77 ships) in 2029. The delivery pressure of ultra - large ships in 2026 is relatively small [2][3]. - **Dynamic Supply**: In the remaining three weeks of February, the average weekly capacity is 271,600 TEU, with the capacities in WEEK7/8/9 being 366,600/259,800/188,300 TEU respectively. In March, the average weekly capacity is 288,400 TEU, and in April, it is 274,700 TEU. There are 13 blank sailings in February, 7 blank sailings and 3 TBNs in March, and 1 blank sailing and 4 TBNs in April [3]. 4. Supply Chain - The resumption of the Suez Canal is expected to be a gradual process. COSCO management points out that there is still no clear schedule for the full resumption of the Red Sea. The Red Sea resumption needs to meet multiple conditions. Since mid - February 2026, Maersk's ME11 route will implement structural adjustments through the Red Sea and the Suez Canal [6]. 5. Demand and European Economy - The cancellation of the VAT export tax rebate for products such as photovoltaics by the Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration on January 8, 2026, may disrupt the shipping rhythm of relevant industries and further affect the pricing strategies of shipping companies. Attention should be paid to whether the freight volume from the Far East to Europe in February and March can increase significantly and whether the actual freight rate will be stronger than in normal years [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The bottom of the February contract valuation is expected to be around 1700 points, and factors such as ship delays and the online cargo collection ratio of different alliances will affect the final settlement price [5] - The pre - holiday freight rate drive is weak, and the EC2604 contract is expected to fluctuate recently. Attention should be paid to the implementation of shipping companies' price support in March after the holiday [6] - For more distant contracts, there is intense speculation about the resumption time, and the volatility is expected to remain high. If the Suez Canal does not resume operation in the first half of 2026, the pressure on the capacity side is relatively controllable, and the freight rate may still be expected to rise. Investors can pay attention to the arbitrage opportunity of going long on EC2606 and short on EC2610 [7] Summary of Each Section According to the Table of Contents 1. Futures Price - As of February 5, 2026, the total open interest of all container shipping index (European line) futures contracts was 60,878 lots, and the single - day trading volume was 52,502 lots. The closing prices of EC2602, EC2604, EC2606, EC2608, EC2610, and EC2512 contracts were 1743.00, 1268.20, 1568.20, 1630.50, 1131.80, and 1420.20 respectively [8] 2. Spot Price - On February 1, the SCFI (Shanghai - Europe route) was 1418 US dollars/TEU, the SCFI (Shanghai - US West route) was 1867 US dollars/FEU, and the SCFI (Shanghai - US East) was 2605 US dollars/FEU. On February 2, the SCFIS (Shanghai - Europe) was 1792.14 points, and the SCFIS (Shanghai - US West) was 1101.40 points [8] 3. Container Ship Capacity Supply Static Supply - As of January 31, 2026, 6 container ships with a total capacity of 46,950 TEU were delivered in 2026. Among them, 2 ships with a capacity of 12,000 - 16,999 TEU (total 28,000 TEU) and 1 ship with a capacity of over 17,000 TEU (17,148 TEU) were delivered. In the future, the delivery volume of 12,000 - 16,999 TEU ships from 2026 - 2029 is 737,400 TEU (50 ships), 944,600 TEU (64 ships), 1,212,000 TEU (82 ships), and 415,400 TEU (29 ships) respectively; the delivery volume of over 17,000 TEU ships is 192,900 TEU (8 ships), 862,800 TEU (40 ships), 1,603,000 TEU (80 ships), and 1,261,500 TEU (77 ships) respectively. The delivery pressure of ultra - large ships in 2026 is relatively small, and only 4 ships over 17,000 TEU were delivered in the first half of 2026 [3] Dynamic Supply - The average weekly capacity in February was 263,100 TEU, with capacities of 300,400 TEU, 312,700 TEU, 271,300 TEU, and 168,200 TEU in weeks 6 - 9. The average weekly capacity in March was 313,400 TEU, with capacities of 245,200 TEU, 321,000 TEU, 365,000 TEU, 317,000 TEU, and 319,000 TEU in weeks 10 - 14. The average weekly capacity in April was 279,000 TEU, with capacities of 291,300 TEU, 317,700 TEU, 266,500 TEU, and 241,200 TEU in weeks 15 - 18. There were 12 blank sailings in February, and 6 blank sailings and 2 TBN in March [4] 4. Supply Chain - The resumption of the Suez Canal is expected to be a gradual process. The full resumption of the Red Sea has no clear schedule, and multiple conditions need to be met. Since mid - February 2026, Maersk's ME11 route has been adjusted, and subsequent adjustments to AE12 and AE15 services are also planned [7] 5. Demand and European Economy - The cancellation of VAT export tax rebates for products such as photovoltaics may disrupt the shipping rhythm of related industries and further affect the pricing strategies of shipping companies. Attention should be paid to whether the cargo volume from the Far East to Europe in February and March can increase significantly and whether the actual freight rate will be stronger than in normal years [6] Strategies Unilateral - The EC2604 contract is expected to fluctuate [9] Arbitrage - None at present [9]