DDlightek Unlockcommerce.withoutborders 2026印度尼西亚电子商务行业报告 出品方 前言 印度尼西亚（以下简称印尼）作为东盟最大的经济体，贡献了该地区约36%的GDP 并展现出约5%的稳健增长韧性。依托2.85亿的庞大人口基数及30.4岁的年轻化结 构，印尼已实现80.66%的互联网渗透率，且移动端用户占比高达98.7%。这种高 度的移动化特征与日益成熟的数字支付基础设施，共同构成了印尼数字经济发展的 坚实底层支撑。 SERATUSR GA 12026印度尼西亚电子商务行业报告 东南亚最大经济体，GDP约占东盟整体36% 作为东南亚最大的经济体及东盟（ASEAN）创始成员国， 印尼的经济规模约占东盟整体的36%。在全球经济环境不 确定性增强的背景下，印尼展现出稳健的增长韧性，除 印尼2025年的增长预期由4.7%上调至4.8%，进一步彰 4.86% 显了国际机构对该国经济增长前景的信心。 印尼经济增长主要由两大支柱驱动：一是资源优势，印尼 在棕榈油、煤炭等大宗商品领域拥有坚实的国际竞争优势， 更是全球第一大镍生产国和第二大生产国，在新能源电 池革命中地位关键；二是内需拉 ...

Core Point - TikTok has been fined 15 billion rupiah ($900,000) for the late reporting of its acquisition of e-commerce platform Tokopedia by Indonesia's anti-monopoly agency [1] Group 1 - The fine imposed on TikTok is a result of regulatory scrutiny regarding its acquisition activities in Indonesia [1] - The amount of the fine is equivalent to $900,000, highlighting the financial implications of compliance failures in the region [1] - The acquisition of Tokopedia is significant as it reflects TikTok's expansion into the e-commerce sector [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Indonesian government's new regulations limiting TikTok Shop's operations have drawn attention to the regulatory landscape of social e-commerce in Southeast Asia, prompting TikTok to invest in local e-commerce platform Tokopedia to adapt to these changes [1][4][5]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - TikTok has rapidly gained a user base in Indonesia, surpassing 125 million users, with over 60 million monthly active users, leveraging its algorithm-driven content distribution to integrate e-commerce into its platform [3][4]. - TikTok Shop, launched in 2021, achieved a transaction volume of $2.5 billion in Indonesia in 2022, capturing over half of Southeast Asia's social e-commerce market [4]. - Tokopedia, a major local e-commerce platform, merged with Gojek to form GoTo Group, holding a 35% market share in Indonesia's e-commerce sector with over 100 million registered users by the end of 2022 [4][5]. Group 2: Regulatory Impact - The Indonesian government introduced the Trade Ministry Regulation No. 31 of 2023, prohibiting unauthorized social platforms from engaging in e-commerce, which led to TikTok Shop's temporary suspension, affecting around 6 million sellers [4][6]. - TikTok's acquisition of a 75% stake in Tokopedia for $1.5 billion allows it to re-enter the market under a compliant structure, integrating its operations with Tokopedia's established e-commerce framework [5][6]. Group 3: Business Integration and Performance - Following the integration, TikTok's traffic and live-streaming capabilities have significantly boosted Tokopedia's user conversion rates by 15%-20%, enhancing daily GMV [6][11]. - The collaboration has redefined "localization" strategies, emphasizing the need for companies to adapt to regulatory environments through capital structure and legal compliance rather than just language and interface adjustments [12][13]. Group 4: Strategic Considerations - The partnership between TikTok and Tokopedia illustrates the necessity for foreign companies to embed themselves within local systems to navigate regulatory challenges effectively [13][14]. - As regulatory scrutiny increases across Southeast Asia, companies must establish robust communication mechanisms with governments to mitigate institutional risks and ensure compliance with local laws [13][14].

Group 1: Digital Economy in Indonesia - Indonesia aims to become the leader of the digital economy in Southeast Asia, with a digital trade value reaching $82 billion in 2023 and projected to grow to $90 billion in 2024 [1] - The Indonesian government released the "2030 National Strategy for Digital Economy Development" in December 2023, indicating a strong commitment to digital transformation [1] - The digital economy is expected to reach approximately $210 billion by 2030, accounting for about 40% of the total digital economy in ASEAN countries [1] Group 2: Competition in the Food Delivery Market - Indonesia's food delivery market is projected to grow at a rate of 18%, reaching over $5.4 billion in 2024, making it the largest and fastest-growing market in Southeast Asia [2] - The competition in the food delivery sector has been dominated by two major players, Grab and Gojek, which have established a duopoly over the market [2] Group 3: Gojek's Growth and Expansion - Gojek, founded in 2010, has expanded from motorcycle ride-hailing to include food delivery, logistics, and financial services, boasting over 3 million online drivers and 5.3 million partner merchants [6] - Gojek's total gross transaction value (GTV) is expected to grow by approximately 30% year-on-year, with online orders increasing by 38% in 2024 [7] - The merger of Gojek and Tokopedia into Goto has allowed the company to attract significant international investment and focus on financial services, with a loan portfolio growth of 108% [7][8] Group 4: Grab's Market Position - Grab has become the largest ride-hailing and food delivery company in Southeast Asia, with a market share of approximately 50% in ride-hailing and 47% in food delivery in Indonesia [10][11] - Grab's acquisition of Uber's business in Indonesia in 2018 solidified its market position, while its integration of financial services through investments in local fintech companies has created a comprehensive digital ecosystem [10][11] Group 5: Competitive Landscape and Future Outlook - The competition between Grab and Gojek reflects a shift from price competition to ecosystem competition, with both companies striving to build comprehensive digital platforms [13] - The digital economy in Indonesia is still concentrated in major cities, indicating potential growth opportunities in smaller cities as infrastructure improves [14] - As the digital economy matures, new entrants will need substantial capital investment to compete effectively in the market [15]

Core Viewpoint - The partnership between Indonesia's largest streaming platform Vidio and Southeast Asian e-commerce giant Shopee marks a significant step in enhancing the digital ecosystem and creating a more attractive shopping experience for customers [1] Group 1: Shopee's New Fee Policy - Shopee Indonesia has introduced a new order processing fee of 1,250 Indonesian Rupiah (approximately 0.56 RMB) per completed transaction, applicable to all sellers on the platform [1][2] - New sellers and those without a Star rating are exempt from this fee for their first 50 orders, aimed at reducing the initial operational burden and encouraging more sellers to join [2] - The new fee structure is expected to pressure sellers, particularly those relying on low-price strategies, as they may struggle to absorb these additional costs without raising prices [2][3] Group 2: Financial Pressures and Strategic Shifts - Shopee's decision to implement these fees is driven by significant logistics costs, which account for approximately 17% of the total transaction value in Indonesia [3] - The company is transitioning from a "burning money" expansion strategy to a "profit-first" approach, reflecting a broader trend in the cross-border e-commerce industry [4][5] - Shopee aims to optimize its financial model by leveraging its scale and increasing fees, which is indicative of a shift towards profitability in the competitive landscape [5] Group 3: Market Dynamics and Competition - Shopee remains the market leader in Southeast Asia, holding a 46% market share in Indonesia, followed by local competitor Tokopedia at 23% [6] - The competitive landscape is intensifying, particularly with TikTok's acquisition of a majority stake in Tokopedia, which could significantly enhance TikTok's market presence [6][8] - The Indonesian e-commerce market is projected to grow rapidly, driven by a young population and government support for digital payments and logistics [6] Group 4: Challenges Ahead - Shopee faces challenges from increased regulatory scrutiny and rising compliance costs, which could impact its operations in Indonesia [9] - The company must adapt to a market where low-price competition is reaching its limits, necessitating a shift in strategy to maintain growth [9] - The rise of TikTok Shop, which has seen a significant increase in seller numbers and transaction volumes, poses a formidable challenge to Shopee's market dominance [8]

Star Brands - Procter & Gamble announces Jon Moeller will step down as CEO after four years, with Shailesh Jejurikar taking over from January 1, 2024 [2] - LVMH is reportedly considering selling its fashion brand Marc Jacobs due to declining demand, with potential buyers including Authentic Brands [2] - Popular bakery brand Haolilai opens its first store in Guangzhou, featuring collaborations with popular games and characters, with themed birthday cakes priced at 299 yuan each [2] - Italian luxury sportswear brand Hydrogen announces its entry into the Chinese market, planning to launch in Spring/Summer 2026 [3] Consumer Platforms - Douyin integrates its instant retail business by merging Douyin Supermarket into Hourly Delivery to enhance operational efficiency [4] - Taobao Flash Purchase sees a 110% month-on-month increase in new brand registrations in July, with over 12,000 new non-food brand stores launched [4] - Meituan emphasizes it will not self-operate or compete with merchants, aiming to support restaurant delivery operations and enhance food safety standards [5] - Walmart updates its beauty product listing standards, restricting sales to brand owners or authorized sellers only [6] - Indonesian e-commerce platform Tokopedia announces an increase in commission rates across various categories starting August 1, 2025 [7] - Kuaishou Local Life is hosting a closed-door meeting in Nanjing to upgrade service provider policies and improve operational experiences [8] Financial Transactions and Reports - Ulta Beauty announces the acquisition of UK beauty retailer Space NK, with the deal valued at over 300 million pounds (approximately 2.9 billion yuan) [12] Consumer Dynamics - South Korean company Orion recalls its fish-shaped pastries due to mold contamination, affecting products valued at approximately 1.5 billion won (around 7.84 million yuan) [12]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the Southeast Asian e-commerce market, highlighting TikTok Shop as an industry dark horse and J&T Express as a key player in logistics [2][7]. Core Insights - The Southeast Asian e-commerce market continues to show robust growth, with a projected total transaction value (GMV) of $128.4 billion in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 12%. Indonesia remains the largest market, contributing $56.5 billion, which accounts for 44% of the region's total GMV [8][11]. - TikTok Shop is rapidly expanding, achieving a year-on-year growth rate of 39% and a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 235% from 2021 to 2024. In 2024, TikTok Shop's GMV reached $22.6 billion, capturing a market share of 17.6% [11][18]. - J&T Express is positioned as a leading third-party logistics provider, benefiting from its partnership with TikTok Shop, particularly in Indonesia, where it holds a significant market share [23][24]. Summary by Sections Market Size - The Southeast Asian e-commerce market is expected to reach a GMV of $128.4 billion in 2024, with Indonesia contributing $56.5 billion, followed by Thailand and Malaysia with growth rates of 21.7% and 19.5%, respectively [8][11]. Competitive Landscape - Shopee remains the market leader with a GMV of $66.8 billion and a 52% market share. TikTok Shop's rapid growth has narrowed the gap, while Lazada maintains a stable position with a GMV of $18 billion and a 14% market share [11][18]. Logistics Sector - J&T Express has demonstrated competitive pricing, with its average price per shipment decreasing from $0.87 in H1 2023 to $0.67 by H2 2024, leading to a market share increase of 3.2 percentage points to 28.6% [29][30].

Core Viewpoint - J&T Express has reported significant growth in its operational data for Q2, particularly in Southeast Asia, where parcel volume increased by 66% year-on-year, indicating strong market performance and potential for continued expansion [1][2][3] Group 1: J&T Express Operational Performance - In Q2, the total average daily parcel volume for the group reached 81.2 million, a year-on-year increase of 23.5%, with Southeast Asia contributing 18.5 million parcels daily, reflecting a 66% growth [1] - For the first half of the year, the group's average daily total parcel volume was 76.9 million, up 26% year-on-year, with Southeast Asia showing a 57% increase [1] - The company’s parcel volume in China grew by 14.7% in Q2, reaching an average of 61.7 million parcels daily [1] Group 2: Southeast Asia E-commerce Growth - According to Momentum Works, the total GMV for Southeast Asian e-commerce platforms is projected to reach $128.4 billion by 2024, dominated by Shopee, Lazada, and TikTok Shop [1] - TikTok Shop's GMV in Southeast Asia is expected to grow from $163 million in 2023 to $226 million in 2024, increasing its market share from 13.2% to 17.6% [2] - During a recent promotional event, TikTok Shop achieved a GMV growth of 123% year-on-year, indicating strong consumer engagement [2] Group 3: Market Position and Growth of J&T Express - J&T Express has maintained its position as the leading courier operator in Southeast Asia since 2020, with a market share of 28.6% projected for 2024, an increase of 3.2 percentage points from 2023 [2] - The company has experienced substantial growth in parcel volume, with year-on-year increases of 87.3%, 16.3%, and 28.9% from 2021 to 2023, culminating in 3.24 billion parcels in 2023 [3] - In Q1 2025, J&T Express's parcel volume in Southeast Asia is expected to grow by 50%, with Q2 showing an even larger increase of 66% [3] Group 4: Financial Projections and Valuation - The company’s net profit forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are projected at $3.80 billion, $5.76 billion, and $8.23 billion respectively, with adjusted net profits of $4.67 billion, $6.63 billion, and $9.09 billion [4] - The estimated market value for the Southeast Asian segment is projected at $10 billion based on an EBITDA multiple of 11x for 2026 [4] - The total target market value across three markets is estimated at HKD 100.1 billion, with a target price of HKD 11.16, indicating a potential upside of 33% [4]

Core Viewpoint - Sea Limited has made a significant recovery after a challenging 2022, returning to profitability and showing renewed momentum across its e-commerce, gaming, and fintech segments, although competition is intensifying in the Southeast Asian market [1][2]. Group 1: Business Performance - Sea Limited has regained profitability and improved cost discipline, leading to a more than 100% increase in stock price from its lows [2]. - The fintech segment, rebranded as Monee, has become a strong profit contributor with over 28 million active borrowers and a loan book of $5.8 billion, reflecting a growing demand for credit products [10]. - Monee generated $787 million in revenue in the first quarter, a 58% year-over-year increase, with adjusted EBITDA reaching $241 million, up 62% year-over-year [11]. Group 2: Competitive Landscape - Shopee, Sea's e-commerce platform, holds over 50% market share in several Southeast Asian countries but faces increasing competition from TikTok Shop, Lazada, and other regional players [4][5][6]. - TikTok Shop is rapidly gaining traction, particularly among Gen Z users, creating new shopping behaviors that Shopee does not fully replicate [5]. - Lazada, backed by Alibaba, is leveraging its resources in logistics and technology to regain market share, posing a serious threat to Shopee [6]. Group 3: Risks and Challenges - The competitive landscape is becoming more challenging, with Shopee needing to reinvest in logistics and promotions, which could pressure short-term margins [9]. - Monee's rapid growth in lending exposes it to potential risks, particularly as it serves first-time borrowers who may lack formal credit histories [12]. - Regulatory changes in digital lending across Southeast Asia could slow growth or increase compliance costs, similar to past events in China [13]. Group 4: Valuation and Market Sentiment - Sea Limited's stock has rebounded to nearly $150, moving away from its "deep value" phase, with current price-to-sales and price-to-earnings ratios at 5.3 and 106, respectively [14]. - The market is no longer pricing Sea as a broken growth story, indicating that any negative developments could lead to a significant stock price correction [15]. - Investors need to be cautious as the company faces competitive threats, credit exposure, and potential volatility in stock prices [16].

Core Insights - GoTo Group, Indonesia's largest internet technology company, has successfully migrated its cloud services to Tencent Cloud and Alibaba Cloud, marking a significant milestone in its cloud migration strategy [1][3][5] - The migration involved a multi-cloud strategy, with Tencent Cloud handling the more complex Gojek operations and Alibaba Cloud managing GoTo Financial and big data projects [3][4] - The migration aimed for minimal user disruption, utilizing hot migration technology to ensure data continuity and operational efficiency during the transition [7][8] Group 1: Migration Details - GoTo Group initiated a global tender for cloud migration, selecting Tencent Cloud and Alibaba Cloud as partners after a comprehensive evaluation of capabilities [3][4] - The migration process took 8 months of preparation and was completed in just under 5 hours, showcasing the efficiency of the collaboration between Gojek and Tencent Cloud [7][8] - GoTo Group's CTO highlighted the complexity of migrating Gojek's existing systems, which had been using Google Cloud, to Tencent Cloud [4][5] Group 2: Strategic Goals - Post-migration, GoTo Group expects to reduce operational costs by over 50% and aims to continue optimizing its cloud infrastructure in collaboration with Tencent Cloud [8] - The migration is part of a broader strategy to enhance product development speed and reduce operational risks associated with high user transaction volumes [6][7] - GoTo Group's CEO emphasized the importance of ensuring a world-class infrastructure before expanding into other markets, focusing on meeting local user demands first [8] Group 3: Market Expansion and Investment - Tencent Cloud has committed to investing $500 million in Indonesia by 2030, which includes the establishment of a new data center to support local operations [9] - Alibaba Cloud has trained nearly 400,000 cloud computing and AI professionals in Indonesia, with plans to double this number by 2033 [9] - The overall cloud migration trend in Indonesia is driven by companies seeking to adopt multi-cloud strategies for cost reduction and efficiency improvements [8][9]