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Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - The price of finished products is expected to move in a volatile and consolidating manner, with its center of gravity shifting downward and showing a weak performance [1][3] - The price of aluminum ingots is expected to remain high in the short term, with the market's supply - demand pattern improving marginally and social inventory decreasing due to pre - holiday stocking [3][4] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Finished Products - Yungui region's short - flow construction steel producers will have a shutdown and maintenance period from mid - January, with a resumption around the 11th to 16th day of the first lunar month, affecting a total output of 741,000 tons. In Anhui, 1 out of 6 short - flow steel mills stopped production on January 5, and most others will stop around mid - January, with a daily output impact of about 16,200 tons [2][3] - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the transaction area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% decrease from the previous period and a 43.2% increase year - on - year [3] - The price of finished products continued to decline with a new low, and the market sentiment was pessimistic under the weak supply - demand pattern and lackluster winter storage [3] Aluminum - Macroscopically, there are increasing differences within the Fed on future monetary policy, and a balance needs to be struck between high inflation and a weak employment market [2] - The supply of the aluminum market has a slight increase due to the ramping - up of replacement capacity, and the supply - demand pattern is improving marginally. As of last Thursday, the national metallurgical - grade alumina's total built - in capacity is 110.32 million tons/year, and the total operating capacity is 92.33 million tons/year, with the weekly operating rate up 0.92 percentage points to 83.69% [3] - The overall aluminum consumption is warming up, with stable growth in the automotive industry, growth expectations in the power industry, and marginal improvement in the construction industry. The operating rate of processed materials is rising steadily [3] - On September 25, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in major domestic consumption areas was 617,000 tons, a decrease of 21,000 tons from Monday and last Thursday [3]

Group 1 - The main contract for caustic soda futures closed at 2641 CNY/ton, with a weekly increase of 2.88% [1] - The average capacity utilization rate nationwide decreased by 1.5% to 81.9% due to equipment maintenance [3] - The inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda in sample enterprises increased by 6.02% month-on-month and 18.22% year-on-year, reaching 37.83 million tons [2] Group 2 - New Lake Futures predicts a seasonal decline in caustic soda production due to maintenance, but overall production will remain stable [4] - Demand for caustic soda is supported by high operating rates and production in the alumina sector, although there is pressure from imports [4] - The traditional peak season for downstream demand is showing weak performance, leading to price declines in the caustic soda market [4]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No information provided Group 2: Core Views - The performance of finished products is expected to be weak with a downward - shifting center of gravity, showing an oscillatory and consolidating trend [1][2] - Aluminum ingot prices are expected to be supported by macro - expectations, with short - term price strength. Attention should be paid to inventory consumption during the peak season [1][2][3] Group 3: Summary by Related Content Finished Products - Yunnan - Guizhou short - process construction steel enterprises' Spring Festival shutdown will affect a total of 741,000 tons of construction steel output; Anhui short - process steel mills' shutdown will affect a daily output of about 16,200 tons [1][2] - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the transaction area of newly - built commercial housing in 10 key cities decreased by 40.3% month - on - month and increased by 43.2% year - on - year [2] - Finished products prices continued to decline, and the market was pessimistic under the pattern of weak supply and demand. Winter storage was sluggish this year, providing little price support [2] Aluminum Ingot - Aluminum prices were strong yesterday. Investors are waiting for the Fed to resume interest rate cuts, and Trump called for faster monetary policy easing. China's industrial growth in August supported aluminum demand [1] - Domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity remained high, with a slight increase in the industry's operating rate. The proportion of molten aluminum is expected to rise slightly [2] - Alumina prices fluctuated narrowly, and the immediate cost of electrolytic aluminum changed little. Although the weekly cost decreased, the demand improved, and the overall operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing enterprises rose by 0.4 percentage points to 62.1% [2] - On September 15, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in domestic mainstream consumption areas increased. The inflection point of inventory reduction in September needs further observation [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - International oil prices rebounded, and propane prices continued to rise, providing cost - side support for a slight rebound in the polyolefin market. Upstream supply is expected to remain at a high level, but there is significant inventory pressure. Downstream demand is in a seasonally improving phase, with overall downstream factory operating rates rising slightly, but the fundamental situation remains weak [3] Summary by Directory 1. Polyolefin Basis Structure - L主力合约收盘价为7232元/吨（+63），PP主力合约收盘价为6966元/吨（+53），LL华北现货为7160元/吨（+10），LL华东现货为7170元/吨（+0），PP华东现货为6800元/吨（+0），LL华北基差为 - 72元/吨（-53），LL华东基差为 - 62元/吨（-63），PP华东基差为 - 166元/吨（-53） [1] 2. Production Profit and Operating Rate - PE开工率为78.0%（-2.5%），PP开工率为76.8%（-3.1%）；PE油制生产利润为277.0元/吨（-69.2），PP油制生产利润为 - 333.0元/吨（-69.2），PDH制PP生产利润为 - 271.2元/吨（+64.0） [1] 3. Polyolefin Non - Standard Price Difference - Not provided in the summarized content 4. Polyolefin Import and Export Profits - LL进口利润为 - 101.2元/吨（-22.4），PP进口利润为 - 471.2元/吨（+40.4），PP出口利润为27.7美元/吨（+0.3） [1] 5. Polyolefin Downstream Operating Rates and Downstream Profits - PE下游农膜开工率为24.1%（+3.9%），PE下游包装膜开工率为51.3%（+0.8%），PP下游塑编开工率为43.1%（+0.4%），PP下游BOPP膜开工率为61.6%（+0.1%） [2] 6. Polyolefin Inventory - Upstream and mid - stream inventory pressure is large, but specific inventory data is not provided in the summarized content [3] Strategies - Unilateral: Neutral; - Inter - delivery: 01 - 05 reverse spread; - Inter - variety: Long L - P [4]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "oscillating weakly" [2] Group 2: Core View of the Report - The steel price is expected to continue oscillating weakly, as the current low demand with no short - term improvement and the rising production may put pressure on the price, and the market lacks new drivers, following the industry's fundamental logic [1][2] Group 3: Summary According to the Content Cost and Profit - This week, the average含税 cost of steel billets of mainstream sample steel mills in Tangshan is 2991 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton week - on - week. Compared with the ex - factory price of common billets of 2990 yuan/ton on September 10th, the average loss of steel mills is 1 yuan/ton [1] - On September 10th, the average cost of 76 independent electric arc furnace construction steel mills is 3342 yuan/ton, with an average profit loss of 145 yuan/ton and a valley - electricity profit loss of 49 yuan/ton [1] Real Estate Sales - As of September 10th, according to Mysteel statistics, the total sales of 16 key real - estate enterprises from January to August 2025 are 868.862 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 17%. The total sales in August are 106.451 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 4.5% and a month - on - month increase of 20.2% [1] Market Situation - After the military parade, both supply and demand have recovered. Currently, the low demand and the rising production may bring more pressure on the price [1] Later Concerns - Later concerns include macro policies, supply - side production reduction, and downstream demand [2]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The short - term price fluctuations of finished products are large, and they operate in a volatile and weak manner. The price is mainly affected by fundamentals. Although supply has decreased due to pre - parade production restrictions, it is likely to resume after the parade, while downstream demand is unlikely to change substantially in the short term. [1][2][3] 3. Key Points from the Report Steel Production and Supply - As of September 1, 23 sample steel enterprises with 89 blast furnaces in Tangshan have carried out blast furnace shutdown and maintenance as planned. There are 16 newly - added blast furnaces for maintenance, and the rest are mainly for rotational maintenance and production reduction. The theoretical daily impact on hot metal output is about 122,300 tons (including previously maintained blast furnaces). The capacity utilization rate is 74.62%, down 14.21% from August 27 and 10.35% from the same period last year. Most blast furnaces are expected to resume production on September 4. [2] - On September 3, production restrictions were implemented in the Beijing - Tianjin - Hebei region before the parade, leading to a decline in supply. However, supply is likely to resume after the parade according to market research. [2] Market and Policy - The Shanghai mortgage policy was implemented on September 1. The minimum interest rate for new first - home mortgages is 3.05%, and the minimum interest rate for new second - home mortgages is 3.09%. Second - home mortgage loans with an existing interest rate higher than 3.36% can be lowered to 3.36%. [2] Market Sales - In August, about 84,000 heavy - duty trucks were sold in China, a slight 1% decrease from the previous month. From January to August, the cumulative sales of heavy - duty trucks in China were about 708,000, a year - on - year increase of about 13%. It is almost certain that the annual sales will exceed 1 million. [2] Product Price - Finished products continued to be weak yesterday, with the rebar 2601 contract once falling below 3,100 and the hot - rolled coil 2601 contract falling below 3,300. [2] 4. Later Concerns - Macro - policies, supply - side production reduction, and downstream demand. [3]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the conditions required for the Producer Price Index (PPI) to turn positive, emphasizing the need for significant increases in commodity prices, particularly in the context of current economic conditions and historical precedents [3][4][9]. Summary by Sections Commodity Price Trends - Since July, major commodities have experienced a slight decline after a peak, with coal and black metals rising by 13.8% and 3.9% respectively by mid-August [3]. - The PPI is expected to show a year-on-year increase in August due to a low base last year, but it remains in negative territory for 34 consecutive months [3]. PPI Composition and Impact - The PPI consists of various components, with black metals, non-ferrous metals, crude oil, coal, and other goods contributing 13.6%, 7.3%, 16.7%, 9.3%, and 53.2% respectively [5]. - In the first seven months of 2025, crude oil, black metals, coal, and other goods negatively impacted the PPI by 1, 0.9, 0.5, and 0.9 percentage points, while non-ferrous metals contributed positively by 0.4 percentage points [5]. Price Requirements for PPI to Turn Positive - For the PPI to turn positive by the end of the year, the average month-on-month PPI from August to December needs to reach 0.43%, which is similar to levels seen during the 2016 supply-side reforms [8]. - Corresponding to this, prices for rebar, non-caking coal, copper, and crude oil need to increase by 11% from July levels, reaching 3580 CNY, 940 CNY, 88000 CNY, and 79 USD respectively [8]. - If crude oil and copper prices remain stable, rebar and non-caking coal prices would need to rise by approximately 20% from July averages to achieve a positive PPI [8]. Historical Context and Future Outlook - Historical examples show that significant price increases in commodities often require external factors, such as the 198% rise in non-caking coal prices in 2021 due to energy-saving measures [9]. - A more realistic scenario for PPI turning positive may occur in Q2 of next year, where a 4% increase in prices from July levels would suffice [9]. - However, after Q2 of next year, the low base effect will diminish, necessitating further conditions for PPI positivity, especially if crude oil prices continue to decline [9][11]. Demand Considerations - The analysis assumes that upstream price increases can be effectively transmitted to downstream sectors, which is contingent on sufficient demand [10]. - Weak demand, particularly in the real estate sector, has historically hindered price transmission, preventing the PPI from turning positive despite rising upstream prices [11].

Group 1: Profit Trends - In July, the year-on-year profit growth rate for industrial enterprises improved to -1.5%, showing a marginal recovery compared to June[9] - From January to July, the total profit of industrial enterprises decreased by 1.7% year-on-year[7] - The marginal recovery in profit margins was the main driver for the increase in profit growth rate in July[9] Group 2: Revenue and Demand - In July, industrial enterprises' operating revenue grew by 0.9% year-on-year, indicating a slight decline in growth rate[9] - The marginal decline in volume growth reflects weak downstream demand, contributing to the revenue slowdown[9] - The PMI data for July indicates an expanding gap between raw material procurement prices and factory prices, which may squeeze downstream profits[9] Group 3: Sector Performance - In July, the profit growth rate for the public utilities sector rose by 5.4 percentage points to 6.9%[9] - The mining sector's profit growth rate fell by 3.1 percentage points to -39.2%, primarily due to production cuts and inventory digestion[9] - The manufacturing sector's profit growth rate increased by 5.2 percentage points to 6.6%, with upstream profits recovering significantly[9] Group 4: Inventory and Supply Chain - As of the end of June, the nominal year-on-year growth of finished goods inventory for industrial enterprises was 2.4%, with actual growth at 6.2%[9] - The inventory turnover days for industrial enterprises in July were 20.5 days, indicating a slight increase in turnover[9] - The average collection period for accounts receivable remained stable at 69.8 days, suggesting ongoing pressure in the supply chain[9] Group 5: Future Outlook - The growth of export-oriented industries remains a crucial support for overall profits, with strong global non-U.S. demand observed[9] - The impact of upstream price increases on downstream profits is a key concern, especially as demand remains weak[9] - The resilience of domestic demand will be critical in maintaining stable corporate profits as economic data begins to reflect last year's high base[9]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2) Core Views - For building materials, it is expected to move in a volatile and consolidating manner [2]. - For aluminum ingots, the price is expected to be strongly volatile in the short - term, and attention should be paid to macro - sentiment and mining news [3]. 3) Summary by Related Content Building Materials - **Production suspension situation**: In the Yunnan - Guizhou region, short - process construction steel producers' suspension time during the Spring Festival is mostly in mid - to late January, with resumption expected between the 11th and 16th day of the first lunar month, affecting a total output of 741,000 tons. In Anhui, 1 out of 6 short - process steel mills stopped production on January 5, and most of the rest will stop around mid - January, with an expected daily output impact of about 16,200 tons during the suspension [1][2]. - **Real estate transaction data**: From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the total transaction (signing) area of newly - built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% decrease from the previous period and a 43.2% increase year - on - year [2]. - **Market situation**: The price of building materials continued to decline and reached a new low recently. In the pattern of weak supply and demand, market sentiment was pessimistic, and the price center continued to move down. This year's winter storage was sluggish, with weak price support [2]. - **Follow - up focus**: Macro - policies and downstream demand [2]. Aluminum Ingots - **Macro - situation**: After US President Trump dismissed a Federal Reserve governor, market confidence in the Fed wavered. Fed Chair Powell hinted at a possible rate cut in September, and the market currently expects an over 87% chance of a 25 - basis - point rate cut in September [1]. - **Demand situation**: The demand side is the core concern. Some enterprises have started to stock up for the peak - season orders. The overall operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises increased by 0.8 percentage points to 59.5% last week. Different sub - sectors showed varying degrees of change, with some increasing and the regenerative aluminum operating rate slightly decreasing by 0.1 percentage points to 53.0% [2]. - **Inventory situation**: The social inventory of aluminum ingots in the main consumption areas increased by 4,500 tons to 463,500 tons on Tuesday. The traditional off - season led to weak demand and continuous inventory accumulation. Holders were not optimistic about the future premium and actively sold, suppressing the spot premium [2]. - **Market outlook**: The price is expected to run at a high level recently, and attention should be paid to the inventory - consumption trend. The off - season and its actual impact will still put pressure on the upside [3]. - **Follow - up focus**: Macro - expectation changes, geopolitical crisis development, mining resumption, and consumption release [3].