初秋，天高气爽。这是收获的季节，也是谋划的季节。 制定中长期规划，并非中国独有。但像中国这样能够连续七十多年，朝着既定目标持续制定实施五年规 划并取得巨大成功，则极为罕见。从1953年开启的"一五"计划，到今年即将收官的"十四五"规划，战略 目标始终是一个——把我国建设成为社会主义现代化国家。 每一步，都意义非凡。特别是进入新时代以来，完成"十二五"规划、制定并完成"十三五"规划，推动实 现全面建成小康社会；制定并实施"十四五"规划，推动现代化建设新征程开局起步。 "十五五"时期，2026年至2030年，是基本实现社会主义现代化承上启下的关键期。科学谋划"十五五"， 不妨从打开"五年规划"的意义开始—— 经过数十年探索，我国已形成了在党中央集中统一领导下，由党中央全会提出规划建议、国务院编制规 划纲要、全国人大审查批准后向社会公布实施的制度安排。这是国家发展规划的诞生路径。 记住"三级四类"，就能了解，五年规划其实是个"规划组合"——"三级"，是指国家、省、市县各级规 划；"四类"，是指国家发展规划、国土空间规划、专项规划和区域规划。 在党的二十届三中全会《决定》中，这样提到"四类"的作用：健全国家经济社会发 ...

Group 1 - The significance of the Five-Year Plan lies in its structured approach to national development, which has evolved over decades under centralized leadership, involving multiple levels of government and various types of planning [1][2][3] - The Five-Year Plan is a continuous process, with each iteration building upon the last, aimed at achieving the long-term goal of modernizing the country [3][5] - The planning process emphasizes the importance of balancing comprehensive planning with focused priorities, ensuring that key issues are addressed effectively [6][10] Group 2 - The Five-Year Plan integrates various policy tools, aligning fiscal, monetary, and industrial policies with national development goals, while also allowing local governments to adapt to their unique circumstances [2][7] - The approach to planning has shifted over time, with a focus on both quantitative targets and qualitative improvements, ensuring that the plans remain relevant and effective [6][9] - The planning process is characterized by a commitment to public welfare, with a significant portion of the current plan dedicated to improving living standards and addressing public service gaps [9][10]

行业研究框架培训 - A 股二十年复盘 20250822 摘要 A 股市场股价反映预期而非当下价值，投资久期与业绩兑现久期错配需 关注，顺势而为重仓并关注结构，不同赛道有不同要求，如周期赛道需 判断供需拐点，科技赛道需把握产业趋势。 研究与投资在短周期内未必直接相关，但在长周期内研究关键点会直接 影响投资。选择公司应考虑"三好公司"标准（好行业、好公司、好价 格），并重视管理层的重要性。 基础化工板块投资需综合考虑宏观经济、流动性、基本面和估值，关注 宏观经济向上、流动性宽松、基本面底部向上和估值底部等条件。 复盘历史大牛市，宏观经济向好、大产业趋势（如 TMT、新能源）、市 场情绪稳定和风险偏好上升是重要因素，当前人工智能和创新药等领域 具备潜力。 前瞻性判断基础化工行业拐点需综合分析前站指标，包括流动性（M1 减 PPI）、估值（PB 分位数）、股债收益比和市场情绪（换手率）。 五年规划通过基本思路研究、纲要和纲要草案三个阶段，引导市场预期 和产业趋势，重点关注扩大内需、产业结构优化、科技创新和供给侧改 革等主题。 判断新兴产业景气度高点关注下游装车量、板块营收和龙头企业产能利 用率等指标，评估估值水平可 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the significance of China's five-year plans in guiding long-term development and strategic planning, highlighting their role as a political advantage and a key experience in governance [2][3]. Group 1: Mechanism of Five-Year Plans - The five-year plans facilitate orderly development and path optimization through phased arrangements, balancing short-term adjustments with long-term visions [3]. - The plans are closely integrated with the socialist market economy, reflecting continuous updates in planning concepts that guide development paths [4][5]. Group 2: Strategic Guidance and Goal Orientation - The construction of an indicator system within the plans provides clear goal orientation, translating macro objectives into measurable and accountable metrics [6]. - The arrangement of development tasks within the plans offers strategic guidance across various sectors, with recent plans introducing new themes and content based on evolving circumstances [7]. Group 3: Resource Allocation and Implementation - The plans actively guide resource allocation through clearly defined major initiatives, which serve as a roadmap for investment and operational decisions [8][9]. - Major engineering projects outlined in the plans ensure effective implementation, with detailed arrangements for construction scale and output [10]. Group 4: Democratic Centralization and Consensus - The planning process incorporates public input, reflecting a blend of top-down design and grassroots consultation, enhancing the quality of the plans [11]. - The planning system ensures alignment from top to bottom, with a structured framework that facilitates the execution of national development tasks [12].

Core Viewpoint - The evolution of the five-year plan reflects a flexible and diverse set of goals focusing on innovation, livelihood, and safety, with an emphasis on optimizing industries and transitioning to green production capabilities [1][5]. Group 1: Planning Framework - The five-year plan follows a fixed cycle that includes seven steps: preliminary research, investigation and compilation, suggestions and implementation, drafting, review and approval, mid-term evaluation, and summary evaluation [2]. - The structure of the five-year plan can be divided into three main parts: overall goals, sector-specific discussions, and implementation mechanisms [3][4]. Group 2: Key Features of Recent Five-Year Plans - The main objectives of the five-year plans have become more flexible, with GDP growth targets shifting from fixed values to range targets. The proportion of targets reflecting economic growth has decreased from 33% in the "Tenth Five-Year Plan" to 20% in the "Fourteenth Five-Year Plan," while social comprehensive goals have increased from 67% to 80% [5]. - Industry policy focuses on dynamic adjustments between manufacturing and service sectors, with an emphasis on enhancing manufacturing competitiveness and the rapid development of service industries driven by consumer demand and supportive policies [6]. - Major engineering projects are increasingly concentrated in the areas of livelihood, ecology, and infrastructure, with a notable shift in regional focus towards western provinces such as Sichuan, Tibet, and Xinjiang [7].

Group 1: Five-Year Plan Overview - The Five-Year Plan has evolved through various stages since the founding of New China, focusing on innovation, livelihood, and safety[2] - The planning process follows a fixed cycle, including seven steps from research to evaluation[8] - The structure of the Five-Year Plan is divided into three main parts: overall goals, sector-specific discussions, and implementation mechanisms[10] Group 2: Economic Goals and Trends - GDP growth targets have shifted from hard constraints to flexible ranges, with the "14th Five-Year Plan" aiming to maintain growth within a reasonable range[14] - The focus of planning goals has diversified, with economic growth targets decreasing from 33% in the "13th Five-Year Plan" to 20% in the "14th Five-Year Plan," while social goals increased from 67% to 80%[15] - The emphasis on innovation, livelihood improvement, and safety has become more pronounced in recent plans[15] Group 3: Industry and Infrastructure Focus - The industrial policy is dynamically adjusting between manufacturing and services, with a growing emphasis on the service sector as a key focus for future planning[19] - Major engineering projects are increasingly concentrated in the fields of livelihood, ecology, and infrastructure, with fixed asset construction projects rising to 51% in the "14th Five-Year Plan"[28] - The green and low-carbon transition is accelerating, driven by the 2030 carbon peak target, with a focus on industries like artificial intelligence and biotechnology[24]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles emphasizes the importance of the upcoming "15th Five-Year Plan" in the context of China's economic stability and growth, particularly in light of recent challenges and the need for strategic planning [1][8][10] - The "Four Stabilizations" policy framework focuses on stabilizing employment, enterprises, markets, and expectations as a response to economic pressures, particularly from external factors [3][4][5] - The "2+2+1" policy structure under the "Four Stabilizations" aims to implement short-term measures and medium to long-term policies to support economic recovery and growth [3][6] Group 2 - The significance of the Five-Year Plans in China's development history is highlighted, showcasing their role in guiding economic and social progress since the establishment of the People's Republic of China [8][9] - The upcoming "15th Five-Year Plan" is expected to prioritize domestic demand and consumer market expansion to mitigate external risks, reflecting a shift in focus towards a more consumption-driven economy [10][11] - The plan will also emphasize the development of new quality productivity, aiming to enhance innovation and competitiveness across various industries, including emerging and traditional sectors [15][16][17] Group 3 - The articles discuss the need for a robust legal environment to support the private economy, particularly through the recently introduced Private Economy Promotion Law, which aims to stabilize market expectations and protect entrepreneurs' rights [24][25] - The importance of aligning public service improvements with technological advancements, such as AI, to enhance the quality of life for citizens is also noted [22][23] - The implementation of major engineering projects within the Five-Year Plans is seen as a critical mechanism for driving economic growth and attracting investment [19][20]

Group 1 - The year marks the conclusion of the "14th Five-Year Plan" and the formulation of the "15th Five-Year Plan," which are crucial for national and social development [1] - The transition from "planning" to "planning" reflects a significant shift from a planned economy to a market economy, emphasizing the role of market mechanisms in resource allocation [3] - The full name of the Five-Year Plan has expanded to include "social development," indicating a broader scope and the recognition of the interconnection between economic growth and social progress [4] Group 2 - The first Five-Year Plan in China was inspired by Soviet experiences, initiated in 1953, and aimed at accelerating national construction through organized planning [5] - The period from 1953 to 1980 was characterized by a traditional planned economy, focusing on industrialization and the establishment of a complete industrial and economic system [6] - From 1981 to 2015, the Five-Year Plans evolved into guiding documents for economic and social development, transitioning from purely directive plans to frameworks that outline development directions and government priorities [7] Group 3 - The "13th Five-Year Plan" marked the first plan in the new era of socialism with Chinese characteristics, introducing five new development concepts to guide economic and social development [8] - The current "14th Five-Year Plan" not only outlines development from 2021 to 2025 but also provides a long-term vision extending to 2035 [8] - The process of formulating the Five-Year Plan involves multiple steps, including mid-term evaluations, preliminary research, and public consultations, currently transitioning from the "basic ideas" stage to drafting "suggestions" for the "15th Five-Year Plan" [9][10]

Group 1 - The article highlights the significant achievements of China's "14th Five-Year Plan," indicating that the economic increment is expected to exceed 35 trillion, equivalent to adding the economic total of the world's third-largest country within five years [2] - It emphasizes the stability and accessibility of electricity supply across the country, with China's power generation capacity accounting for one-third of the global total, ensuring energy demands are met even during peak usage periods [1][2] - The article points out the remarkable advancements in technology and innovation, citing major achievements such as the launch of the first domestically produced aircraft carrier and the operation of the first fourth-generation nuclear power plant [2][3] Group 2 - The continuous investment in research and development is noted, with a nearly 50% increase in R&D expenditure compared to the end of the "13th Five-Year Plan," indicating a strong foundation for future technological breakthroughs [3] - The article discusses the unique advantages of China's governance model, which effectively mobilizes resources for key sectors through five-year plans, leading to significant infrastructure and technological advancements [3] - It mentions the upcoming "15th Five-Year Plan," suggesting a clear vision for the future and the ongoing commitment to national development and innovation [3]

Economic Growth and Contributions - China's GDP has achieved a "four consecutive jumps" over the past five years, with an expected increase of over 35 trillion yuan, equivalent to "recreating a Yangtze River Delta" [1] - The average contribution rate of domestic demand to economic growth is over 86.4%, highlighting its role as the main driver of China's economy [3] - Final consumption contributed an average of 56.2% to economic growth, an increase of 8.6 percentage points compared to the "13th Five-Year Plan" [4] Infrastructure Development - The national comprehensive transportation network has a completion rate of over 90%, covering over 80% of counties and serving about 90% of the economy and population [7] - The logistics cost savings for society are projected to exceed 4 billion yuan in 2024, with an additional expected savings of around 3 billion yuan this year [7] - The average hourly throughput at national ports is expected to reach 38,000 standard containers by 2024, a 26% increase from 2020 [8] Innovation and Technology - R&D expenditure increased by nearly 50% compared to the end of the "13th Five-Year Plan," reaching an increment of 1.2 trillion yuan, with R&D intensity rising to 2.68% [9] - China has achieved significant breakthroughs in innovation, including the launch of the first domestically produced aircraft carrier and the completion of the first Chinese space station [10] Governance and Efficiency - The business environment in China has improved, with over 58 million private enterprises, an increase of over 40% since the end of the "13th Five-Year Plan" [11] - The ability to mobilize and act effectively has been demonstrated in disaster response, such as the rapid organization of rescue efforts following a 6.8 magnitude earthquake [12] Social Welfare and Public Services - The "14th Five-Year Plan" includes seven social welfare indicators, the highest proportion in any five-year plan, aimed at enhancing people's sense of gain, happiness, and security [13] - Employment stability has been maintained with over 12 million new urban jobs created annually, and the income growth of residents is synchronized with economic growth [15] - The healthcare system has been expanded, with a significant increase in the number of practicing physicians per thousand people, from 2.9 to 3.6 [15]