（来源：万得基金） 【摘要】华泰证券易峘认为，人民币有望继续走强，人民币升值有望推动中国资产进一步重估。中金公司策略团队指出，中期市场维持积极观点，但短期 需关注市场存在局部过热。 一、焦点锐评 1.中国10月官方制造业PMI为49，前值49.8 10月31日，国家统计局公布数据显示，10月份制造业采购经理指数（PMI）为49.0%，比上月下降0.8个百分点，制造业景气水平有所回落。从分类指数 看，生产指数为49.7%，比上月下降2.2个百分点，表明制造业生产有所放缓。新订单指数为48.8%，比上月下降0.9个百分点，表明制造业市场需求有所回 落。从业人员指数为48.3%，比上月下降0.2个百分点，表明制造业企业用工景气度小幅回落。 【解读】申万宏源赵伟认为，10月PMI偏弱表象原因是需求偏弱，深层原因是库存对生产指数有较大拖累。生产指数大幅回落，或源于"抢生产"效应退 坡，高库存及PMI环比属性的共同影响。往后看，高库存及外部扰动趋于缓和，增量政策已在加快落地，均有助于对冲产需回落的压力，后续进一步跟踪 制造业景气的边际变化。 来源：市场投研资讯 二、权益市场 1.华泰证券：人民币有望延续走强，推动中国资产 ...

三是"中美经贸关系曲折带来启示"。习总书记在会晤中指出"中美经贸关系近期经历曲折，也给双方带 来一些启示"。站在美方的角度来看，在尝试了各种对华打压政策后，并未讨得半分便宜，这样的结 果，显然让美方未来对华"出招"时会多了几分顾虑——这未尝不是一种"启示"。 四是"对话优于对抗，可共同应对难题"。习总书记在会晤中强调"对话比对抗好。…当今世界还有很多 难题，中国和美国可以共同展现大国担当，携手多办一些有利于两国和世界的大事、实事、好事"。从 美国本身的情况来看，其本身也面临着各种挑战，而中国的政经实力也在此前的中美"交锋"中得到了体 现。在这种情况下，美国是否要一意孤行的继续对抗、"啃硬骨头"，还是转向合作对话，这事实上是特 朗普政府需要思考的问题。 综上所述，从本轮中美元首釜山会晤的情况来看，我个人的看法，是中方主导整个过程的特点是较为明 显的。而这种格局的背后，是中国政经实力的体现。 本文根据王涵博士10月31日下午电话会议内容整理。 大家好，我是兴业证券的王涵，今天结合近期两件大事（中美元首会晤、二十届四中全会）谈一谈对后 期内外经济环境和金融市场的看法。 一、关于中美釜山会晤：值得注意的四句话 一是" ...

本文根据王涵博士10月31日下午电话会议内容整理。 大家好，我是兴业证券的王涵，今天结合近期两件大事（中美元首会晤、二十届四中全会）谈一谈对后 期内外经济环境和金融市场的看法。 一、关于中美釜山会晤：值得注意的四句话 一是"元首应驾驭住大局"。 习总书记在会晤中指出" 两国元首作为掌舵人，应当把握好方向、 驾驭住大局 "。 在9月马德里磋商、中美元首通电话后不久，美方突然出台 50% 穿透原则、 港口船舶限制等政策，导致中美经贸关系出现恶化。加之美商务部长卢特尼克未出席中美团 队吉隆坡磋商，都加剧了对"美方内部是否存在上下决策脱节的问题"的担忧。中方指出"元首 应驾驭住大局"，就是在要求美方避免"高层定调、基层跑偏"，以确保中美关系平稳前行。 二是"中国克服内外困难，保持经济发展势头"。 习总书记在会晤中强调了前三季度中国经济及外贸 的良好发展势头，并指明" 这是克服内外困难实现的 "。在美方反复施压的复杂外部环境下，中国经 济指标稳健，印证美方打压政策未达预期，也展现中方应对外部挑战的底气与自信。 三是"中美经贸关系曲折带来启示"。 习总书记在会晤中指出" 中美经贸关系近期经历曲折，也给双 方带来一些启示 ...

当地时间10月29日，美联储宣布将联邦基金利率目标区间下调25个基点到3.75%至4.00%之间。这是美 联储继9月17日降息25个基点后再次降息，也是自2024年9月以来第五次降息。 距离上次降息还不到2个月，美联储再次调整政策利率水平。为什么？ 来听总台央视记者王雷——"财经老王"带来的分析↓ 答案就藏在就业数据里。虽然美国9月非农就业数据没有按时发布，但是10月中旬美联储发布的全国经 济形势调查报告，也就是"褐皮书"显示，全美各地区、各行业劳动力需求普遍低迷，同时物价还在涨。 市场普遍认为，美联储这次降息，就是为了给就业、消费"托个底"。 别觉得美联储降息离我们很远，美元在全球金融体系中使用广泛，美联储降息，对各国都会有一定的影 响。对我国的企业、个人也会有影响。 美联储降息，美元大概率会走弱，人民币会相对升值。这就意味着留学、海外购物、旅游的成本会降 低。如果你未来需要用美元，可以趁美元走弱的时候换一些美元备用。另外，美联储降息将会直接压低 美债的收益率，如果你持有美元资产，回报率可能会下降，包括挂钩美元的理财产品，收益就可能减 少。如果你持有相关产品的话，可以问问银行的客户经理怎样应对。 还有，美联 ...

Macro Insights - The Federal Reserve's October meeting resulted in a 25 basis point rate cut, with Chairman Powell indicating that December's rate cut remains uncertain, leading to a decrease in market expectations for future cuts [2][3] - The Chinese Yuan has appreciated by 2.8% against the US dollar this year, with a notable 12% increase against the Japanese Yen since July, indicating a shift towards an "independent trend" in the Yuan's valuation [2][3] Fixed Income - In October, the People's Bank of China announced a resumption of bond purchases, leading to a significant rise in government bond futures [5][6] - The US financial sector is seeing a new model of support for national strategy, with JPMorgan's $1.5 trillion initiative focusing on key industries and supply chain resilience [6] Energy and New Energy - The "15th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes the development of new energy storage and smart grid infrastructure, benefiting companies in the storage and wind power sectors [10][11] - A significant $80 billion investment in nuclear power by Cameco and Brookfield Asset Management aims to enhance energy infrastructure in the US [11] Real Estate - The "15th Five-Year Plan" outlines a shift towards high-quality development in real estate, focusing on improving housing quality and supply systems, which may enhance long-term value in the sector [13] Financial Services - The brokerage sector is experiencing a slight decrease in positions, with a focus on high-quality financial strategies amid a recovering market sentiment [9] - The banking sector shows signs of improvement, with a notable increase in credit issuance and a stable asset quality outlook [23] Key Companies - Huafeng Measurement Control reported a 67.21% year-on-year revenue increase in Q3, driven by cost reduction and improved testing performance [17] - Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry's Q3 revenue showed a 6.03% quarter-on-quarter increase, benefiting from a recovery in coal prices [18] - Kweichow Moutai's Q3 revenue growth was lower than expected, but the company is implementing strategies to boost market confidence [19] - Guangdong Investment's Q3 performance reflects a stable business model with strong cash flow, supporting high dividend returns [20] - Yutong Bus reported a 32.27% year-on-year revenue increase in Q3, driven by strong export performance [21]

对企业的影响 一般来说，美联储降息，国际大宗商品价格通常会上涨。这样一来，我国的化工、金属加工、航空物流 等行业的企业，原材料进口成本就可能会增加。特别是那些高度依赖海外能源和大宗资源采购的企业， 就需要更多地关注成本上升带来的风险。 对个人的影响 美联储降息，美元大概率会走弱，人民币会相对升值。这就意味着留学、海外购物、旅游的成本会降 低。如果你未来需要用美元，可以趁美元走弱的时候换一些美元备用。另外，美联储降息将会直接压低 美债的收益率，如果你持有美元资产，回报率可能会下降，包括挂钩美元的理财产品，收益就可能减 少。如果你持有相关产品的话，可以问问银行的客户经理怎样应对。 还有，美联储降息，美元继续走弱会影响全球资本的流向。资金可能会更多地流向新兴市场国家，包括 中国资产可能会更受关注，这对我国的资本市场也是一个好消息。 据央视新闻消息，北京时间30日凌晨，美联储再次宣布降息25个基点，最新利率区间是3.75%～4%。 距离上次降息还不到2个月，美联储再次调整政策利率水平。为什么？ 答案就藏在就业数据里。虽然美国9月非农就业数据没有按时发布，但是10月中旬美联储发布的全国经 济形势调查报告，也就是"褐皮书 ...

Core Insights - In September 2025, China's bank settlement and sales surplus reached $51 billion, the highest monthly figure since December 2020, indicating a significant shift in cross-border capital flow back to China [1][3] - The total bank settlement in September was $264.7 billion, with sales at $213.6 billion, resulting in a substantial surplus that reflects a fundamental change in corporate financial strategies [3][4] - The depreciation risk of the US dollar, coupled with expectations of further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, has prompted companies to accelerate the conversion of their dollar assets back to RMB [4][5] Group 1 - The net inflow of foreign capital into China reached $93.1 billion in the first three quarters of 2025, marking four consecutive quarters of net inflow [6] - The onshore RMB appreciated from 7.1805 to 7.1330 against the US dollar by August 2025, the highest level in nearly ten months, supported by increased capital inflows [6] - The appreciation of the RMB is expected to further increase the settlement ratio of exporters, potentially leading to additional RMB strengthening [6][9] Group 2 - The stock market is experiencing a systemic revaluation, with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching new highs, indicating strong investor sentiment [6] - A 1% appreciation of the RMB could lead to approximately a 3% increase in the Chinese stock market, creating a "Davis Double Play" effect for international investors [6] - Different industries are experiencing varied impacts from RMB appreciation, with import-dependent sectors like aviation benefiting from reduced procurement costs [6][8] Group 3 - Foreign investment strategies in Chinese assets are diversifying, with a focus on "growth leaders and high-dividend blue chips," particularly in technology and industrial sectors [8] - The shift in capital flow patterns is creating more room for monetary policy adjustments, with continuous surpluses in bank settlements since March 2025 [8][9] - The current market dynamics are fostering a positive feedback loop between RMB appreciation and stock market performance, enhancing liquidity and potentially lowering financing costs [9]

Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market experienced a collective decline in the afternoon, halting a three-day rally, with the Hang Seng Index down 0.33% to 26,346 points, the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index down 0.97% to 9,375 points, and the Hang Seng Tech Index down 1.26% to just above 6,000 points [1][2]. Sector Performance - Major technology stocks led the market decline, with notable drops including SMIC down over 3%, and other companies like Trip.com, SenseTime, Li Auto, NetEase, and Midea Group falling more than 2% [4][5]. - Gold stocks also faced significant losses, with China Silver Group down over 10%, and other mining companies like Zijin Mining and Lingbao Gold down over 7% [6]. - Cryptocurrency-related stocks saw sharp declines, with Huajian Medical down over 12% and other firms like Blueport Interactive and Big Brother International dropping more than 6% [7][8]. - Sportswear stocks fell broadly, with Anta Sports and 361 Degrees down over 4%, and other brands like Li Ning and Yue Yuen Industrial also declining [9][10]. - Water utility stocks performed well, with China Water Affairs Group up over 18%, and other companies like Guangdong Investment and Tianjin Chuangye Environmental Protection rising more than 3% [11]. - Dairy stocks rebounded after previous declines, with Yurun Dairy up over 3% and China Feihe up over 2% [12]. - Banking stocks showed resilience, with Standard Chartered and HSBC both rising over 3% [13]. Investment Trends - Southbound funds recorded a net inflow of HKD 2.258 billion, indicating continued interest in Hong Kong stocks [13]. - Analysts from Xiangcai Securities predict that the Hong Kong market will follow the US market's upward trend, driven by expected interest rate cuts and favorable currency movements [15].

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market has shown resilience, with the Shanghai Composite Index breaking the 4000-point mark, reflecting improved market sentiment and investor confidence, driven by progress in US-China trade negotiations and supportive regulatory policies [2][4]. Market Performance - As of the morning close, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.21%, closing at 4005 points, with a total trading volume of 1.36 trillion yuan, a decrease of 216.5 billion yuan compared to the previous day [2]. - The index's ability to maintain above 4000 points is seen as a psychological barrier that could attract more capital inflow and support future market trends [4]. Regulatory Environment - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) has introduced measures to optimize the Qualified Foreign Institutional Investor (QFII) system, enhancing access and operational efficiency for foreign investors [2]. - Future plans include the introduction of a refinancing framework to broaden support for mergers and acquisitions, alongside encouraging listed companies to improve governance and increase shareholder returns through dividends and buybacks [3]. Investment Sentiment - Analysts suggest that the market is currently experiencing a "slow bull" trend, with expectations of continued upward movement in the index, albeit with increased volatility [5]. - There is a cautionary note regarding high valuations in certain sectors, particularly technology and semiconductors, which may lead to profit-taking behavior among investors [3][4]. Economic Context - The market's recent performance is influenced by global economic conditions, including expectations of a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve and the possibility of a meeting between US and Chinese leaders at the APEC summit, which could ease geopolitical tensions [5]. - The overall market sentiment is supported by a marginally easing domestic policy environment, which is expected to bolster risk appetite among investors [3].

Industry Insights - The appreciation of the RMB is expected to lead to a revaluation of Chinese assets, with the stock market likely to maintain a bullish atmosphere due to marginal economic stabilization and relatively loose liquidity [1] - Industries such as transportation, non-ferrous metals, petrochemicals, machinery, home appliances, electronics, and power equipment are anticipated to benefit from the appreciation of the RMB, considering factors like exchange gains and losses, foreign currency liabilities, northbound holdings, and raw material imports [1] - For industries like aviation and papermaking, where many products are settled in foreign currencies, the appreciation of the RMB will reduce costs and enhance profits [1] Company Highlights - Shanying International is recognized for its leading position in the paper and packaging printing sectors in China [1] - Huaxia Airlines is identified as an independent private airline company that focuses on regional transportation [1]