Core Viewpoint - Allianz Investment emphasizes that Asian markets, particularly the Chinese stock market, are key diversification choices for investors who are currently overexposed to US equities [1][4]. Group 1: US Federal Reserve and Interest Rates - Allianz's Chief Investment Officer for Fixed Income, Zeng Zheng, predicts further interest rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve, with a terminal rate of around 3.5% by mid-2026 [2]. - Zeng notes that the likelihood of the Fed choosing to cut rates is greater than maintaining the current rates, although the exact timing remains uncertain [2]. - Fixed income is highlighted as a core tool for capital preservation amid macroeconomic volatility, with a shift in return drivers expected from credit spreads to interest rate spreads by 2026 [2][3]. Group 2: Investment Opportunities in Asia - Zeng Yonghui, Chief Investment Officer for Asia Pacific equities, points out that many investors are overly concentrated in US stocks, particularly in large tech sectors, and are now reallocating to Asian assets [4]. - The current low allocation of global investors to Asian stocks presents a significant opportunity, especially as Asian stocks have a low correlation with US stocks [4]. - Four key themes driving investment opportunities in Asian stocks include innovation in technology, corporate reforms in major Asian economies, supply chain diversification, and emerging consumer trends [5]. Group 3: China's Economic Strategy - Allianz's Senior Economist, Tang Jicheng, identifies two main focuses of China's economic strategy: continued investment in advanced manufacturing and boosting domestic consumption [7]. - The "14th Five-Year Plan" outlines five strategic areas for attention, including modern industrial systems, technological breakthroughs, a unified domestic market, human-centered urbanization, and international cooperation [8]. Group 4: Multi-Asset Investment Strategies - Allianz's Head of Growth Multi-Asset, Hartwig Kos, notes that risk assets remain attractive, with a shift towards more diversified global allocations beyond US equities [10]. - The traditional "60/40" stock-bond portfolio remains viable, but flexibility and inclusion of non-core risk exposures like emerging market bonds and gold are essential for resilience [10]. - Gold is reaffirmed as a strategic asset, increasingly driven by geopolitical uncertainties and de-dollarization, making it a crucial component of a diversified investment portfolio [10]. Group 5: Sustainable Investment Trends - Allianz's Head of Sustainable and Impact Investing, Matt Christensen, indicates that sustainable investment regulation is entering a new phase, with a shift from mere disclosure to clearer product classifications in the EU [11]. - Impact investing is maturing, with growing recognition of achieving market-level returns, particularly in private markets, supported by clearer standards for outcomes and reporting [12].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the company with a target price of 11 yuan [1]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 630 million yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, a decrease of 22.1% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was -100 million yuan, remaining stable compared to the same period last year. In Q3 alone, revenue was 140 million yuan, an increase of 3.7% year-on-year, and the net profit attributable to shareholders was -30 million yuan, an improvement from -110 million yuan in the same period last year [1][5]. - The report highlights that the company is undergoing a phase of adjustment and reform, with signs of operational bottoming out. The revenue growth in Q3 indicates a potential recovery, particularly in the domestic market, despite ongoing competitive pressures [5][6]. Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue and Profitability**: The total revenue for 2024 is projected at 925 million yuan, with a year-on-year decline of 37.0%. The net profit is expected to be -258 million yuan, reflecting a significant drop of 1,067.2% year-on-year. By 2027, the company is projected to achieve a net profit of 235 million yuan, with a growth rate of 909.9% [1][12]. - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: The EPS is forecasted to be -0.39 yuan in 2024, improving to 0.36 yuan by 2027 [1][12]. - **Valuation Ratios**: The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is expected to be -26 in 2024, -50 in 2025, and 29 in 2027, indicating a significant turnaround anticipated in the company's profitability [1][12]. Market and Product Performance - **Product Segmentation**: In Q3, the high-end, mid-range, and low-end products generated revenues of 10 million, 20 million, and 80 million yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 30.4%, -43.7%, and 32.4% [5][6]. - **Sales Channels**: Direct sales revenue increased by 28.6%, while wholesale revenue grew by 7.3%, indicating a stabilization in channel performance [5][6]. - **Regional Performance**: Domestic revenue grew by 22.0% in Q3, while revenue from outside the province decreased by 32.0%, highlighting the challenges faced in external markets [5][6].

Core Viewpoint - Nestlé is undergoing significant restructuring under the new CEO Philipp Navratil, which includes a plan to cut approximately 16,000 jobs globally over the next two years to enhance efficiency and reduce costs [1][5]. Group 1: Job Cuts and Cost Savings - The job cuts will involve around 12,000 white-collar positions across all functions and regions, with an expected annual savings of 1 billion Swiss francs by 2027, doubling the initial target of 500 million Swiss francs [1]. - An additional 4,000 positions will be eliminated through productivity improvements in production and supply chain [1]. - The total cost-saving target for the "Growth Support" initiative has been raised from 2.5 billion Swiss francs to 3 billion Swiss francs by 2027 [1]. Group 2: Financial Performance - In the first nine months of the year, Nestlé's total sales amounted to 65.9 billion Swiss francs, a year-on-year decline of 1.9% [3]. - The organic growth rate was reported at 3.3%, with all regions and global direct businesses achieving positive growth [3]. - The actual internal growth rate increased to 0.6%, while pricing contribution remained stable at 2.8% [3]. Group 3: Regional Performance - The Greater China region has been a significant drag on Nestlé's performance, with an organic growth rate of -10.4% in the third quarter, continuing a downward trend [4]. - Excluding Greater China, the organic growth rate for Asia, Oceania, and Africa was 5.3%, with a pricing contribution of 4.0% [4]. - The new leadership is focusing on reducing excess inventory in Greater China and shifting the organizational focus towards demand creation [4][6]. Group 4: Leadership Changes - Philipp Navratil was appointed as the new CEO on September 1, succeeding Laurent Freixe, who was dismissed [5]. - The board also announced Pablo Isla as the new chairman, effective October 1, following Paul Bulcke's early resignation [5]. - The new management team is expected to drive significant changes, with a focus on performance-oriented culture and resource allocation towards high-potential opportunities [5][6].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [8]. Core Insights - The company has completed four core tasks since the second half of 2024: defining direction, clarifying governance, boosting morale, and eliminating burdens. The results of past promotions are beginning to show in specific products and brands, and the upcoming new product launches and brand promotions are highly anticipated [2][10]. - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 3.478 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 266 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12%. However, the net profit excluding non-recurring items decreased by 6% to 221 million yuan [6][10]. - In the second quarter of 2025, the company reported operating revenue of 1.775 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 25%, and a net profit of 49 million yuan, marking a turnaround from losses. The net profit excluding non-recurring items was 29 million yuan [6][10]. Financial Performance Summary - In the first half of 2025, the personal care, beauty, innovation, and overseas divisions generated revenues of 1.6 billion yuan, 700 million yuan, 400 million yuan, and 700 million yuan, respectively. The beauty segment saw a growth of 32%, while personal care remained stable with slight growth [10]. - The second quarter of 2025 saw rapid growth in the beauty segment and e-commerce channels, contributing to strong revenue performance. The personal care and beauty segments achieved revenue of 800 million yuan and 420 million yuan, with growth rates of 42% and 56%, respectively [10]. - The improvement in net profit margin in the second quarter of 2025 was primarily due to an increase in gross margin and a decrease in sales expense ratio. The gross margin increased by 5 percentage points year-on-year, mainly driven by the higher proportion of beauty products and an increase in average selling prices across categories [10]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to see earnings per share (EPS) of 0.50 yuan, 0.63 yuan, and 0.85 yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively. The anticipated new product launches and enhanced brand promotions in the second half of 2024 are expected to drive growth [10].

Core Insights - Activist investor Elliott Management has invested $4 billion in PepsiCo and proposed a reform plan to the board, suggesting the evaluation of core business refranchising, divestiture of non-core assets, and streamlining the product portfolio [1] - Elliott believes that through these reforms, PepsiCo's stock price has the potential to increase by at least 50% [1] - PepsiCo's soda sales in the U.S. have dropped to fourth place, and the food business is under pressure, leading to a decline in the company's market value from its peak [1] Company Response - PepsiCo has stated that it will evaluate Elliott's views and engage in constructive communication with its shareholders while expressing confidence in its existing sustainable growth strategy [1] - Since the CEO took office, PepsiCo has implemented several measures, including cost-cutting, logistics integration, marketing expenditure assessment, and a relaunch of core brands, expecting a rebound in weak North American demand as strategic adjustments take effect [1]

Core Viewpoint - Elliott Investment Management has acquired approximately $4 billion in shares of PepsiCo and plans to advocate for changes within the struggling beverage manufacturer [1] Group 1: Investment and Shareholder Engagement - Elliott's stake makes it one of PepsiCo's largest investors [1] - PepsiCo stated it will evaluate Elliott's views in conjunction with its growth strategy aimed at accelerating growth and creating long-term shareholder value [1] Group 2: Market Challenges - PepsiCo is facing challenges due to competitive pressures and changing consumer tastes, with its market value declining over 20% since its peak in May 2023 [1] - Elliott outlined a reform plan for PepsiCo, which may include restructuring its beverage division and reassessing its snack product portfolio [1] Group 3: Performance Concerns - The market share of PepsiCo's beverage division, which includes brands like Coca-Cola, Gatorade, and Mountain Dew, has been declining and has underperformed for over a decade [1] - Following the announcement, PepsiCo's stock price increased by 2.2% [1]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The company is currently undergoing a period of reform, which is causing some pain in its operations. However, there are expectations for revenue improvement in the coming years [5][7] - In Q2 2025, the company experienced marginal revenue improvement due to a low base effect, despite overall revenue pressure [5][6] - The gross margin improved significantly due to cost benefits from lower raw material prices, although profit margins were under pressure due to ongoing reforms [6][7] Financial Performance Summary - For H1 2025, the company reported revenue of 2.13 billion yuan (down 19% YoY) and a net profit of 260 million yuan (down 27% YoY) [9] - In Q2 2025, revenue was 1.03 billion yuan (down 9% YoY) with a net profit of 76 million yuan (down 32% YoY) [9] - The company’s gross margin for Q2 2025 was 39.4%, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 3.2 percentage points, primarily due to lower raw material costs [6][9] - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 5.04 billion, 5.50 billion, and 6.03 billion yuan respectively, with expected net profits of 715 million, 854 million, and 965 million yuan [7][10] Product and Regional Performance - In Q2 2025, revenue from soy sauce increased by 6.4% YoY, while chicken essence and cooking oil saw declines of 13.7% and 48.8% respectively [9] - Revenue performance varied by region, with East and North regions showing improvements of 1.1% and 6.8% YoY, while the South region declined by 12.4% [9]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a solid performance in H1 2025, with revenue and net profit showing year-on-year growth, although Q2 faced challenges due to weak consumer demand. The company remains committed to strengthening its core business and improving profitability through ongoing reforms [1][2]. Financial Performance - In H1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 1.13 billion, net profit of 110 million, and net profit excluding non-recurring items of 100 million, representing year-on-year increases of 12.0%, 18.1%, and 22.8% respectively [1]. - Q2 2025 saw revenue of 500 million, net profit of 50 million, and net profit excluding non-recurring items of 50 million, with year-on-year changes of -8.2%, +40.6%, and +43.9% respectively [1]. - The revenue performance in Q2 was primarily affected by subdued consumer demand, while new product categories like复调 outperformed traditional categories [1][2]. Product and Channel Analysis - In H1 2025, revenue from various product categories was as follows: vinegar 740 million, liquor 150 million, sauce 80 million, and other products 150 million, with year-on-year changes of +8.0%, -5.4%, -3.5%, and +176.6% respectively [2]. - For Q2 2025, revenue from vinegar, liquor, and sauce was 370 million, 60 million, and 40 million, showing year-on-year declines of -1.0%, -18.9%, and -29.0% respectively [2]. - Online and offline channel revenues in H1 2025 were 80 million and 420 million, with year-on-year changes of +18.7% and -12.1% [2]. Profitability and Cost Structure - The company's gross margin in H1 2025 was 38.4%, an increase of 1.9 percentage points year-on-year, with Q2 gross margin reaching 42.1%, up 9.6 percentage points year-on-year [3]. - In H1 2025, the sales and management expense ratios were 18.1% and 4.2%, reflecting year-on-year changes of +1.5 and -1.0 percentage points respectively [3]. - The net profit margin for H1 2025 was 9.8%, an increase of 0.5 percentage points year-on-year, while Q2 net profit margin was 10.8%, up 3.8 percentage points year-on-year [3]. Future Outlook and Valuation - The company is optimistic about the long-term impact of management reforms and maintains its earnings forecasts for 2025-2027, projecting EPS of 0.18, 0.20, and 0.21 respectively [4]. - The target price for 2025 is set at 10.44, based on a PE ratio of 58x, reflecting an increase from the previous target of 9.36 [4].

Core Viewpoint - The company is experiencing operational pressure due to weak demand and intense competition, but there are expectations for improvement in the future [1] Investment Highlights - The investment recommendation is to maintain a "Buy" rating, with projected EPS for 2025-2027 at 0.9, 1.12, and 1.17 yuan respectively. The company is undergoing a reform process and is expected to achieve both organic and external growth, with a target price of 22.5 yuan per share based on a 25x PE for 2025 [2] - In Q2 2025, the company's main business revenue decline narrowed to single digits, with revenue of 1.03 billion yuan, down 9.11% year-on-year, and net profit attributable to the parent company at 76 million yuan, down 31.57% year-on-year. The main seasoning products saw a revenue of 1.992 billion yuan in H1 2025, down 18.39% year-on-year, with Q2 revenue at 966 million yuan, down 3.29% year-on-year, indicating a slowdown in the decline compared to Q1 [2][3] - The sales expense ratio significantly increased in Q2 2025, with a gross margin increase of 3.22 percentage points to 39.39%, primarily due to cost reductions. The sales expense ratio was 18.88%, up 4.05 percentage points, likely due to significant increases in employee compensation and advertising expenses [2] Financial Metrics - In Q2 2025, management, R&D, and financial expense ratios increased by 0.37, 0.04, and -0.18 percentage points to 8.12%, 3.74%, and 0.05% respectively. Despite the increase in gross margin, the significant rise in sales expense ratio led to a decrease in net profit margin attributable to the parent company by 1.03 percentage points to 8.03% [3] - The revenue growth rate for soy sauce turned positive in Q2 2025. The revenue and growth rates for various products in H1 2025 were as follows: soy sauce at 1.298 billion yuan, down 16.68% (Q1: -31.57%, Q2: +6.39%), chicken essence and powder at 255 million yuan, down 21.98% (Q1: -28.6%, Q2: -13.73%), cooking oil at 109 million yuan, down 49.39% (Q1: -50.01%, Q2: -48.84%), and other products at 331 million yuan, down 3.23% (Q1: -6.89%, Q2: +2.84%) [3] Regional Performance - The southern main sales area remains significantly pressured. Revenue and growth rates by region in H1 2025 were as follows: Eastern region at 436 million yuan, down 28.64% (Q1: -47.71%, Q2: +1.11%), Southern region at 808 million yuan, down 16.29% (Q1: -19.63%, Q2: -12.36%), Central and Western region at 434 million yuan, down 16.12% (Q1: -29.05%, Q2: +5.61%), and Northern region at 316 million yuan, down 9.64% (Q1: -18.72%, Q2: +6.79%) [4] - The number of distributors increased by 245 to 2,799, with further channel penetration, achieving a county development rate of 86% and a prefecture-level city development rate of 97.9% [4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company is actively reducing inventory and is expected to see operational improvements in the future. Despite significant revenue and profit declines in the first half of 2025, the company's brand strength and consumer base remain intact, making future reforms promising [5][6] Financial Performance Summary - In H1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 14.796 billion, a year-on-year decline of 35.32%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 4.344 billion, down 45.34%. Q2 revenue was 3.729 billion, down 43.67%, with net profit of 707 million, a decline of 62.66% [5] - The company has adjusted its profit forecasts for 2025-2026, now expecting net profits of 4.763 billion (-57.6%), 4.907 billion (-61.8%), and 5.159 billion for 2027, with year-on-year changes of -28.6%, +3.0%, and +5.1% respectively [5] - The current stock price corresponds to P/E ratios of 22.8, 22.2, and 21.1 for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [5] Product and Regional Performance - The mid-to-high-end product segment saw a revenue decline of 36.5% to 12.67 billion, while ordinary liquor revenue fell by 27.2% to 1.84 billion. The decline in the mid-to-high-end segment is attributed to decreased demand for the company's main product line [6] - Revenue from the domestic market was 7.12 billion, down 25.8%, while revenue from outside the province was 7.39 billion, down 42.7%, indicating a more significant decline in external markets [6] Contract Liabilities and Cash Flow - As of the end of H1 2025, contract liabilities stood at 5.88 billion, an increase of 1.94 billion year-on-year but a decrease of 1.15 billion quarter-on-quarter. Q2 sales cash receipts were 2.57 billion, down 48%, aligning with revenue trends [7] Profitability Metrics - Q2 gross margin was relatively stable at 73.3%, down 0.4 percentage points year-on-year. However, the sales expense ratio increased by 2.3 percentage points due to fixed advertising and personnel costs amid declining revenue. The net profit margin fell significantly by 9.6 percentage points to 18.9% [8] - The company’s gross margin is projected to remain around 73% for the next few years, with net margins expected to recover slightly by 2027 [10]