Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the industry, highlighting several key companies as recommended investments [5]. Core Views - The report emphasizes a positive outlook for industrial metal prices driven by macroeconomic factors, including rising expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and resilient domestic export data [2][4]. - The report identifies specific companies within the sector that are expected to perform well, including Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, and China Nonferrous Mining [2][5]. Summary by Sections Industrial Metals - The report notes that the price of industrial metals such as aluminum, copper, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin has shown positive movements, with LME prices for aluminum increasing by 1.69% and copper by 1.40% during the week [1][10]. - The SMM copper concentrate import index increased by $4.03 per ton, indicating a recovery in processing costs [2]. - Domestic aluminum production remains stable, but demand from end-use sectors like home appliances and construction is weak, leading to an increase in social inventory to 564,000 tons [2][21]. Energy Metals - The report highlights the impact of the Democratic Republic of Congo's mining ban on cobalt prices, which are expected to rise significantly [3]. - Lithium prices are anticipated to increase due to recovering demand from downstream battery manufacturers, with market activity showing signs of improvement [3]. - Nickel prices are also expected to remain strong due to tight supply and rising demand for replenishment [3]. Precious Metals - The report indicates that gold prices have surpassed $3,500 per ounce, driven by increased central bank purchases and rising inflation expectations [4]. - Silver prices are also on the rise, supported by its industrial applications and recent price surges [4]. - Key companies in the precious metals sector recommended for investment include Shandong Gold and Zhongjin Gold [4][5]. Company Earnings Forecasts and Valuations - The report provides earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for several companies, with Zijin Mining expected to achieve an EPS of 1.21 yuan in 2024, and Luoyang Molybdenum projected at 0.63 yuan [5]. - The price-to-earnings (PE) ratios for these companies indicate favorable valuations, with Zijin Mining at 17 times and Luoyang Molybdenum at 15 times for 2024 [5].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of the U.S. imposing a 25% tariff on Indian goods, leading to India suspending its plans to purchase new weapons and aircraft from the U.S., which has caused fluctuations in international oil prices [1][2][5]. Group 1: Tariff Impact on India-U.S. Relations - India has suspended its plans to procure new weapons and aircraft from the U.S. as a direct response to President Trump's announcement of a 25% tariff on Indian goods, which brings the total tariff rate to 50% [2][5]. - The Indian Defense Minister's planned visit to Washington to announce procurement plans has been canceled due to the tariff situation [2][3]. - Discussions regarding the purchase of General Dynamics' "Striker" armored vehicles and Raytheon and Lockheed Martin's Javelin anti-tank missiles have also been paused [2]. Group 2: Economic and Strategic Reactions - The Indian government views the U.S. tariffs as "unfair, unjust, and unreasonable," and has stated it will take necessary actions to protect national interests [5][4]. - India is considering trade concessions to the U.S. during the 21-day window before the new tariffs take effect, particularly in agriculture and dairy sectors [6]. - The Indian government is also exploring opportunities for industrial cooperation with Russia, including rare earth and critical mineral extraction, amidst the pressure from U.S. tariffs [7][8].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that gold is currently experiencing a range-bound fluctuation, with limited downside potential and an approaching timeline for a breakout above the 3440 level [1][2]. - Factors driving gold prices include geopolitical tensions, trade tariffs, inflation, and the anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, with a significant market reaction expected before the actual rate cut [1][2]. - Despite the prolonged range-bound movement, global ETF holdings have increased, indicating sustained investor interest in gold, as evidenced by a recent addition of 7.74 tons [1]. Group 2 - The critical resistance level for gold is identified at 3440, and a breakthrough could provide substantial upward momentum for bullish positions [2]. - The recent price action shows a pattern of higher lows, suggesting a potential setup for a future breakout, although short-term adjustments are expected to continue [3][4]. - A cautious approach is recommended for re-entering positions, with a focus on observing the formation of a bottom structure in the near term before making further investments [5].

Core Viewpoint - The announcement of a 50% tariff on imported copper by the U.S. government has led to a rush of cargo ships carrying copper to American ports, creating significant profit opportunities for traders who can deliver before the tariff takes effect [1][5]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - As of now, the copper futures price on the London Metal Exchange is approximately $9,900 per ton, meaning U.S. buyers will need to pay an additional $4,950 in tariffs for each ton imported [3]. - Traders can potentially achieve profits nearly equivalent to the tariff amount if they can complete imports within two weeks [3]. Group 2: Shipping and Logistics - At least four ships loaded with copper are currently en route to U.S. ports, with one ship, Kiating, having altered its destination to Hawaii to expedite delivery and potentially save 20 days of travel time [4]. - The typical bulk carrier, with a capacity of 15,000 tons, could see a profit difference exceeding $70 million if it clears customs before the tariff takes effect [4]. Group 3: Industry Impact - Companies such as Glencore, Mercuria Energy, and Trafigura have been shipping large quantities of copper to U.S. ports since February, capitalizing on the tariff situation for unprecedented profits [5]. - There is uncertainty regarding the specifics of the copper tariff, including whether there will be a grace period for ships that depart before the tariff's implementation [5].

2025 年 07 月 17 日 铅：下方或有限 莫骁雄 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0019413 moxiaoxiong@gtht.com 资料来源：Bloomberg，同花顺 iFinD，SMM，SHMET，国泰君安期货研究 【新闻】 特朗普称要给 150 多国发关税函，预告会达成一些贸易协议、点名印度。30% 关税威胁下，欧盟考虑 动用"反胁迫工具"应对特朗普。（华尔街见闻） 【趋势强度】 铅趋势强度：0 注：趋势强度取值范围为【-2,2】区间整数。强弱程度分类如下：弱、偏弱、中性、偏强、强，-2 表示 最看空，2 表示最看多。 【基本面跟踪】 | | 昨日值 | 较前日变动/涨跌幅 | | 昨日值 | 较前日变动/涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪铅主力收盘价 | 16895 | -0.21% | 伦铅 3M 电子盘收 | 2001 | -0.20% | | （元/吨） | | | 盘（美元/吨） | | | | 沪铅主力成交量 | 32614 | -988 | 伦铅成交量（手） | 7688 | 811 | | （手） | | | | | | ...

2025 年 07 月 16 日 商 品 研 究 【基本面跟踪】 铜：国内现货坚挺，支撑价格 季先飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0012691 jixianfei@gtht.com 铜基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 昨日夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪铜主力合约 | 78,090 | -0.40% | 78070 | -0.03% | | | 伦铜3M电子盘 | 9,658 | 0.15% | - | - | | | | 昨日成交 | 较前日变动 | 昨日持仓 | 较前日变动 | | 期 货 | 沪铜主力合约 | 81,666 | 2,530 | 169,930 | -2,274 | | | 伦铜3M电子盘 | 14,553 | -6,083 | 279,000 | -1,048 | | | | 昨日期货库存 | 较前日变动 | 注销仓单比 | 较前日变动 | | | 沪铜 | 50,133 | 15,754 | - | - | | | 伦铜 | 110,475 | 850 | 11.43% | -3.05% ...

【导读】日韩股市走高，韩国KOSPI指数涨1.6% 一起来看下日韩股市的最新市场情况及资讯。 韩国KOSPI指数涨1.6% 最新关税消息公布后，日本和韩国股市走高。7月8日早间，韩国KOSPI指数高开后持续拉升，一度大涨1.6%。 消息面上，在特朗普向韩国发出信函拟自8月1日起对韩征收25%关税后，韩国表示，将制定规则和法规以满足美国关于降低非关税壁垒的要求。 个股方面，欧姆龙、住友电气工业、藤仓等涨幅居前。 | 名称 | 现价 | 涨跌幅 = | 总市值 三 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 欧姆龙 | 3864.0 | 10.31% | 7969亿 | | 6645.T | | | | | 住友电气工业 | 3236.0 | 6.98% | 25692亿 | | 5802.T | | | | | 古河电气工业 | 7423.0 | 6.58% | 5246亿 | | 5801.T | | | | | M3集团 | 1954.5 | 4.13% | 13273亿 | | 2413.T | | | | | 藤仓 | 7693.0 | 3.82% | 22761亿 | | 5803.T ...

Group 1: Trade Negotiations and Tariffs - Trump announced a trade agreement with Vietnam, imposing a 20% tariff on Vietnamese goods and a 40% tariff on goods transshipped through Vietnam, while Vietnam maintains zero tariffs on U.S. goods[9] - New unilateral tariffs may range from 10% to 70%, with implementation expected around August 1[6] - The U.S. is conducting a 232 investigation into sectors like semiconductors and pharmaceuticals, which began in April, indicating potential short-term tariff risks[15] Group 2: Political Developments - Trump's position within the Republican Party has strengthened following a series of political successes since June, including the signing of the "Big and Beautiful" tax and spending bill[6] - The U.S. Supreme Court has supported Trump's executive powers, allowing him to pursue his policy agenda without significant judicial challenges[13] - The upcoming G20 finance ministers' meeting and the BRICS+ summit are critical events to monitor for international economic discussions[3] Group 3: Geopolitical Risks - Ongoing geopolitical tensions include the Israel-Palestine conflict and U.S.-Iran negotiations, with a focus on potential ceasefire outcomes and nuclear discussions[16] - The U.S. aims to rebalance its relations with major powers, particularly in the context of the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict, which presents significant negotiation challenges[18] - The potential for a framework agreement in trade negotiations exists, but countries may shift conflicts to third parties to achieve short-term wins[12]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Overweight" for the non-ferrous metals sector [1]. Core Views - The non-ferrous metals sector experienced a weekly increase of 3.74%, ranking it second among all primary industries. The industrial metals segment saw a rise due to optimistic macroeconomic sentiments following the U.S. non-farm payroll data [1][15]. - The report highlights that while industrial metals are showing strength, there are underlying concerns regarding demand, particularly for copper and aluminum, which are facing seasonal slowdowns [2][37]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.13%, with 25 out of 31 sectors increasing. The non-ferrous metals sector outperformed the index by 2.61 percentage points [15]. - The small metals and new materials sectors saw increases of 5.07% and 5.15%, respectively, while industrial metals rose by 3.24% [15]. Industrial Metals - **Copper**: Prices for copper increased, with LME copper at $9,671 per ton (up 1.83%) and SHFE copper at ¥78,930 per ton (up 1.71%). However, downstream demand is weakening, leading to inventory accumulation [2][32]. - **Aluminum**: LME aluminum prices reached ¥2,452 per ton (up 0.12%), while SHFE aluminum remained stable at ¥20,070 per ton. Demand is declining, limiting upward price movement [3][37]. - **Zinc**: Zinc prices increased, with LME zinc at $2,663 per ton (up 1.25%) and SHFE zinc at ¥22,385 per ton (up 0.72%). Inventory levels showed mixed trends [42]. - **Tin**: Tin prices rose significantly, with LME tin at $32,255 per ton (up 6.70%) and SHFE tin at ¥263,600 per ton (up 5.31%) due to supply disruptions [45]. Precious Metals - **Gold**: COMEX gold closed at $3,331.10 per ounce (up 0.54%), while SHFE gold was at ¥783.24 per gram (up 2.48%). The market is reacting to mixed economic signals, with recent non-farm payroll data providing temporary relief from recession fears [4][48].

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