Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the importance of the 3346 level for gold prices, indicating that a breakout above this level could signal a new upward trend [1][2] - Gold has been consolidating at relatively low levels, with strong buying support evident as it quickly rebounded after testing the 3320 level [1] - Factors driving the long-term rise in gold prices include rising global inflation, trade tariffs, and the anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1] Group 2 - The market is currently waiting for a catalyst that could trigger a domino effect, potentially linked to the expected interest rate cuts in September [1] - If gold prices break above 3346, it could mark a turning point, leading to a new wave of upward movement [2] - The overall market sentiment is more positive than negative, suggesting a favorable outlook for gold [1]

短期盘面再次转弱，很遗憾的是周三的见底，并未给昨天的上涨带来惊喜，昨日早盘在冲击3375之后开始掉头转 弱。尤其是隔夜跌破3340后，一小时整体格局再次重回下台阶，那也就是说今天弱势格局还会延续，但是大概率会 先反弹然后再下跌。那么今天等空看回落也就是主要思路了！ 因为从日线来讲，决定中期多空转折的关键是在3270这里，如果这里一旦失守，则意味着连续震荡了四个月的黄金 将会出现中长期的顶部信号，进而言之，熊市开启！ 当下来讲，短期上方需要关注3350或3355这里，日内可依托这一区域为防守或在此区域之下，小级别出现顶部信号 时可以去空！而3370则是决定多空转折的关键！ 但是，基于当下的关税贸易，地缘局势，通胀以及下半年美联储可能出现的三次降息的前提下，我认为推动黄金长 期上涨的动力和因素依然存在。所以我说，中长期格局来讲，3270之上，黄金的跌幅非常有限，相反，一旦向上破 位，那么压抑了四个月的多头动能将会迸发！ 来源：张扬超说 下方可以去尝试关注3310，极限应该是3300一线。当然，如果近期的美俄会晤顺利达成某些协议的话，不排除黄金 会再次测试前期的低点3280或者3270区域。 那么基于这一点，我们是 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the industry, highlighting several key companies as recommended investments [5]. Core Views - The report emphasizes a positive outlook for industrial metal prices driven by macroeconomic factors, including rising expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and resilient domestic export data [2][4]. - The report identifies specific companies within the sector that are expected to perform well, including Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, and China Nonferrous Mining [2][5]. Summary by Sections Industrial Metals - The report notes that the price of industrial metals such as aluminum, copper, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin has shown positive movements, with LME prices for aluminum increasing by 1.69% and copper by 1.40% during the week [1][10]. - The SMM copper concentrate import index increased by $4.03 per ton, indicating a recovery in processing costs [2]. - Domestic aluminum production remains stable, but demand from end-use sectors like home appliances and construction is weak, leading to an increase in social inventory to 564,000 tons [2][21]. Energy Metals - The report highlights the impact of the Democratic Republic of Congo's mining ban on cobalt prices, which are expected to rise significantly [3]. - Lithium prices are anticipated to increase due to recovering demand from downstream battery manufacturers, with market activity showing signs of improvement [3]. - Nickel prices are also expected to remain strong due to tight supply and rising demand for replenishment [3]. Precious Metals - The report indicates that gold prices have surpassed $3,500 per ounce, driven by increased central bank purchases and rising inflation expectations [4]. - Silver prices are also on the rise, supported by its industrial applications and recent price surges [4]. - Key companies in the precious metals sector recommended for investment include Shandong Gold and Zhongjin Gold [4][5]. Company Earnings Forecasts and Valuations - The report provides earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for several companies, with Zijin Mining expected to achieve an EPS of 1.21 yuan in 2024, and Luoyang Molybdenum projected at 0.63 yuan [5]. - The price-to-earnings (PE) ratios for these companies indicate favorable valuations, with Zijin Mining at 17 times and Luoyang Molybdenum at 15 times for 2024 [5].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of the U.S. imposing a 25% tariff on Indian goods, leading to India suspending its plans to purchase new weapons and aircraft from the U.S., which has caused fluctuations in international oil prices [1][2][5]. Group 1: Tariff Impact on India-U.S. Relations - India has suspended its plans to procure new weapons and aircraft from the U.S. as a direct response to President Trump's announcement of a 25% tariff on Indian goods, which brings the total tariff rate to 50% [2][5]. - The Indian Defense Minister's planned visit to Washington to announce procurement plans has been canceled due to the tariff situation [2][3]. - Discussions regarding the purchase of General Dynamics' "Striker" armored vehicles and Raytheon and Lockheed Martin's Javelin anti-tank missiles have also been paused [2]. Group 2: Economic and Strategic Reactions - The Indian government views the U.S. tariffs as "unfair, unjust, and unreasonable," and has stated it will take necessary actions to protect national interests [5][4]. - India is considering trade concessions to the U.S. during the 21-day window before the new tariffs take effect, particularly in agriculture and dairy sectors [6]. - The Indian government is also exploring opportunities for industrial cooperation with Russia, including rare earth and critical mineral extraction, amidst the pressure from U.S. tariffs [7][8].

Group 1: Gold Market - The Federal Reserve decided to maintain interest rates, marking the fifth consecutive pause in rate cuts, with Powell indicating no decision has been made regarding a potential rate cut in September [1] - The ADP report showed an increase of 104,000 jobs, contrasting with a previous decrease of 23,000, which negatively impacted gold prices [1] - The second quarter GDP growth was recorded at 3%, exceeding the previous value of 2.4% and the expected -0.5%, further pressuring gold prices [1] - Following the data release, gold prices fell from around $3,330 to a low of $3,267 after the Fed's decision [1] - Analysts suggest that the probability of a rate cut in September has dropped below 50%, although two rate cuts are still anticipated this year if strong data continues [1] - Technically, gold is in a bearish trend, with resistance at $3,310 and support at $3,260 [1] Group 2: Oil Market - The EIA reported an increase in crude oil inventories by 7.698 million barrels to 426.7 million barrels, which was higher than the previous decrease of 3.169 million barrels and the expected decrease of 1.288 million barrels, negatively affecting oil prices [2] - Gasoline inventories decreased by 2.724 million barrels to 22.84 million barrels, exceeding expectations and providing support for oil prices [2] - Trump's threat of additional tariffs on Russia if the Ukraine conflict does not end within ten days raised concerns about potential supply tightness, contributing to rising oil prices [2] - A trade agreement framework between the U.S. and South Korea, which includes a reduction in tariffs and significant investments, is expected to boost short-term oil demand [2] - Technically, oil prices have been fluctuating between $64 and $69.50, with a recent breakout above $69.50 indicating a higher probability of further increases, targeting $71.70 [2] Group 3: Nikkei 225 - The Nikkei 225 index rebounded after a decline, suggesting that the recent pullback may be nearing its end, with potential for further increases [3] - The index is expected to maintain a range-bound movement in the short term, with key support at 40,500 [3] Group 4: Copper Market - Copper prices experienced a significant drop, reaching the lowest point since early April, erasing gains from the past three and a half months [4] - There are no signs of a bottoming out in the hourly chart, indicating a potential for further declines [4] - Key support for copper is noted at $4.21, with resistance at $4.47 [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that gold is currently experiencing a range-bound fluctuation, with limited downside potential and an approaching timeline for a breakout above the 3440 level [1][2]. - Factors driving gold prices include geopolitical tensions, trade tariffs, inflation, and the anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, with a significant market reaction expected before the actual rate cut [1][2]. - Despite the prolonged range-bound movement, global ETF holdings have increased, indicating sustained investor interest in gold, as evidenced by a recent addition of 7.74 tons [1]. Group 2 - The critical resistance level for gold is identified at 3440, and a breakthrough could provide substantial upward momentum for bullish positions [2]. - The recent price action shows a pattern of higher lows, suggesting a potential setup for a future breakout, although short-term adjustments are expected to continue [3][4]. - A cautious approach is recommended for re-entering positions, with a focus on observing the formation of a bottom structure in the near term before making further investments [5].

Core Viewpoint - The announcement of a 50% tariff on imported copper by the U.S. government has led to a rush of cargo ships carrying copper to American ports, creating significant profit opportunities for traders who can deliver before the tariff takes effect [1][5]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - As of now, the copper futures price on the London Metal Exchange is approximately $9,900 per ton, meaning U.S. buyers will need to pay an additional $4,950 in tariffs for each ton imported [3]. - Traders can potentially achieve profits nearly equivalent to the tariff amount if they can complete imports within two weeks [3]. Group 2: Shipping and Logistics - At least four ships loaded with copper are currently en route to U.S. ports, with one ship, Kiating, having altered its destination to Hawaii to expedite delivery and potentially save 20 days of travel time [4]. - The typical bulk carrier, with a capacity of 15,000 tons, could see a profit difference exceeding $70 million if it clears customs before the tariff takes effect [4]. Group 3: Industry Impact - Companies such as Glencore, Mercuria Energy, and Trafigura have been shipping large quantities of copper to U.S. ports since February, capitalizing on the tariff situation for unprecedented profits [5]. - There is uncertainty regarding the specifics of the copper tariff, including whether there will be a grace period for ships that depart before the tariff's implementation [5].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The report focuses on the fundamentals of lead, suggesting that the downside of lead may be limited, but no clear core view is explicitly stated other than presenting data on lead's market performance [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Price and Volume**: The closing price of the Shanghai lead main contract was 16,895 yuan/ton, down 0.21% from the previous day, and the trading volume was 32,614 lots, a decrease of 988 lots. The closing price of the LME 3M electronic lead contract was $2,001/ton, down 0.20%, and the trading volume was 7,688 lots, an increase of 811 lots [1]. - **Open Interest**: The open interest of the Shanghai lead main contract was 53,407 lots, an increase of 740 lots, while the LME lead open interest was 134,717 lots, a decrease of 7,430 lots [1]. - **Premium and Discount**: The premium of Shanghai 1 lead was -30 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, and the LME CASH - 3M premium was -$31.9/ton, an increase of $1.6/ton [1]. - **Inventory**: The Shanghai lead futures inventory was 58,086 tons, a decrease of 682 tons, and the LME lead inventory was 269,225 tons, a decrease of 1,850 tons. The LME lead cancelled warrants were 42,475 tons, a decrease of 5,075 tons [1]. - **Profit and Loss**: The spot import profit and loss of lead ingots was -592.32 yuan/ton, a decrease of 35.36 yuan/ton, and the import profit and loss of the Shanghai lead continuous third contract was -483.77 yuan/ton, an increase of 19.2 yuan/ton. The comprehensive profit and loss of recycled lead was -503 yuan/ton, a decrease of 40 yuan/ton [1]. 3.2 News - Trump plans to send tariff letters to more than 150 countries, announcing the achievement of some trade agreements and naming India. Under the threat of a 30% tariff, the EU is considering using an "anti - coercion tool" to respond to Trump [2]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of lead is 0, indicating a neutral view, with the value ranging from -2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [2].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2) Core View of the Report - The domestic copper spot market is firm, which supports the copper price [1] 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs [Fundamental Tracking] - **Futures Prices**: The closing price of the Shanghai Copper main contract was 78,090 with a daily decline of 0.40%, and the night - session closing price was 78,070 with a decline of 0.03%. The LME Copper 3M electronic disk closed at 9,658 with a daily increase of 0.15% [1] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the Shanghai Copper main contract was 81,666, an increase of 2,530 from the previous day, and the open interest was 169,930, a decrease of 2,274. The trading volume of the LME Copper 3M electronic disk was 14,553, a decrease of 6,083, and the open interest was 279,000, a decrease of 1,048 [1] - **Futures Inventory**: The Shanghai Copper inventory was 50,133, an increase of 15,754, and the LME Copper inventory was 110,475, an increase of 850. The LME Copper注销仓单 ratio was 11.43%, a decrease of 3.05% [1] - **Price Spreads**: The LME copper ascension and premium increased by 13.80 to - 48.27. The bonded area warehouse receipt premium increased by 3 to 50, and the bonded area bill of lading premium increased by 3 to 66. The price of Shanghai 1 bright copper decreased by 300 to 72,800 [1] [Macro and Industry News] - **Macro News**: In the US, the core CPI in June increased by 2.9% year - on - year and 0.2% month - on - month, lower than expected for five consecutive months. Trump said that the US reached an agreement with Indonesia to impose a 19% tariff, lower than the threatened level last week. The EU said there were large gaps in positions between the US and the EU in some areas [1] - **Industry News**: Copper traders are shipping copper to Hawaii to take advantage of huge tariff trade. First Quantum Minerals' investment in Prospect Resources is crucial for extending the life of the Sentinel mine in Zambia. China's imports of copper ore and concentrates in June were 2.35 million tons, and the cumulative imports from January to June were 14.754 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.4%. The imports of unwrought copper and copper products in June were 464,000 tons, and the cumulative imports from January to June were 2.633 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.6%. In the first half of this year, Azerbaijan's copper concentrate production soared nearly 12 times to about 1,200 tons [1][3] [Trend Intensity] - The copper trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral state [3]

Market Overview - The South Korean KOSPI index rose by 1.6% following the announcement of new tariff measures [2] - The Japanese stock market initially opened lower but later rebounded, with the Nikkei 225 index increasing by 0.39% [5] South Korea's Response to Tariffs - Following a letter from President Trump proposing a 25% tariff on South Korean goods starting August 1, South Korea announced plans to create rules to meet U.S. demands for reducing non-tariff barriers [4] - The South Korean government expressed concern over potential volatility in domestic and international financial markets due to U.S. tariff actions and stated it would monitor the situation closely [4] Japan's Trade Negotiations - Japan's Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba indicated that Japan will continue to seek a trade agreement with the U.S. while protecting its national interests, noting that the August 1 deadline effectively extends the previous deadline of July 9 [8] - Japan's government convened a meeting to discuss comprehensive countermeasures in response to the U.S. tariff announcement [7]