格隆汇12月18日｜美国里士满联储、亚特兰大联储及杜克大学富甲商学院发布季度首席财务官(CFO)调 查，显示受访548名企业CFO对公司及美国整体经济信心下降。乐观指数从第三季62.9降至最新60.2，亦 低于去年底特朗普当选美国总统后高位的66，该指数满分为100分。受访者预期明年就业及经济增长的 中位数分别为1.7%及1.9%，仅四成受访者称企业正招聘新职位，近两成称完全不招聘，约9%预期其企 业裁员。受访者最忧虑仍为关税问题，平均预期明年物价涨幅4.2%，半数预测物价涨幅3.5%或以上， 公司收入增长预测平均为近8%。 ...

Core Insights - CFOs in the U.S. expect significant price increases in 2026, averaging a 4.2% rise, challenging the Federal Reserve's inflation targets [1][2] - Concerns over tariffs remain a primary risk for businesses, with many CFOs indicating that inflation pressures may persist longer than anticipated [1][3] Group 1: Inflation Expectations - The survey conducted among 548 CFOs revealed an average expected price increase of 4.2% for 2026, with half of the respondents anticipating increases of 3.5% or more [2] - This expectation contrasts sharply with the Federal Reserve's forecast, which suggests inflation could slow to within 0.5 percentage points of its 2% target by 2026 [2] Group 2: Tariff and Cost Pressures - Tariffs and trade policies remain the top concern for CFOs, despite a slight decrease in anxiety compared to earlier in the year [3] - CFOs expect unit costs to rise slightly above price increases, indicating that a 4.2% price hike may only marginally cover rising costs [3] Group 3: Business Confidence and Economic Outlook - Business optimism has declined, with the U.S. economic optimism index dropping from 62.9 to 60.2 [4] - Companies project a modest economic growth rate of approximately 1.9% for 2026, with employment expected to increase by 1.7% [4] - Less than half of the surveyed companies are actively hiring, with a notable percentage indicating no hiring plans or potential layoffs [4]

Group 1 - The global stock market has shown strong performance in 2025, driven by the AI investment boom and loose monetary policies, with many indices, including the US stock market, reaching historical highs [1] - Billionaires are optimistic about investment opportunities in China and Western Europe, with 40% of respondents favoring Western Europe for the next 12 months, up from 18% in 2024, and 34% favoring the Greater China market, significantly higher than 11% last year [5] - Over a five-year outlook, the percentage of respondents optimistic about the Greater China market rose from 31% in 2024 to 48% in 2025 [6] Group 2 - There has been a significant decline in optimism regarding the North American market, with only 63% of billionaires favoring it in 2025, down from 80% in 2024, primarily due to concerns over multiple risk factors, particularly tariffs [9] - 66% of respondents identified tariffs as the most likely negative factor affecting the market environment in the next 12 months, followed by geopolitical conflicts (63%), policy uncertainty (59%), and higher inflation (44%) [9] - Billionaires plan to increase investments in private equity, hedge funds, developed market equities, and emerging market equities, with 49% intending to increase exposure to private equity in the next 12 months, followed by hedge funds (43%), developed market equities (43%), and emerging market equities (42%) [11]

上天天基金APP搜索777注册即可领500元券包，优选基金10元起投！限量发放！先到先得！ 在即将过去的2025年，得益于AI投资热潮以及宽松货币政策等因素，全球股市整体表现强 劲，呈现出罕见的同步上涨态势，包括美股为在内的多国股指创下历史新高。 2026年最好的投资机会在哪里？在这一点上，掌控着庞大资金且比普通人拥有更敏锐投资嗅 觉的亿万富豪们的看法，或许可以成为风向标。 那么，亿万富豪们眼下将目光瞄向了何处？瑞银的一份最新报告给出了答案。 瑞银针对其亿万富豪客户的最新年度调查涵盖了多个主题，包括他们计划在未来12个月和五 年内将资金投向何处。 亿万富豪们投资情绪的上述转向，源于对多重风险因素的担忧，其中关税问题首当其冲。 66%的受访者认为，关税是"未来12个月最可能对市场环境造成负面影响"的因素之一；紧随 其后的是潜在重大地缘政治冲突（63%）、政策不确定性（59%）以及更高的通胀 （44%）。 瑞银的一位欧洲客户直言："尽管北美市场仍具深度与创新力，但它已不再是我们眼中的头号 投资目的地。对我们而言，投资过度集中于单一地区会催生风险，分散布局才能捕捉更优机 遇。" 放眼全球，亿万富豪们对两个地区投资前 ...

Core Insights - The global stock market has shown strong performance in 2025, driven by the AI investment boom and loose monetary policies, with many indices, including the US stock market, reaching historical highs [1] Group 1: Investment Sentiment - Billionaires are increasingly optimistic about investment opportunities in China and Western Europe, with 40% of respondents favoring Western Europe for the next 12 months, up from 18% in 2024 [1] - Similarly, 34% of billionaires see potential in the Greater China market for the next 12 months, a significant increase from 11% in the previous year [1] - Over a five-year horizon, the outlook for Greater China has also improved, with the percentage of respondents optimistic rising from 31% in 2024 to 48% in 2025 [1] Group 2: North America Market Sentiment - In contrast, optimism towards the North American market has sharply declined, with only 63% of billionaires favoring it in 2025, down from 80% in 2024 [4] - Concerns over multiple risk factors, particularly tariffs, are driving this shift, with 66% of respondents identifying tariffs as a major potential negative impact on the market environment [4] - Other significant concerns include geopolitical conflicts (63%), policy uncertainty (59%), and higher inflation (44%) [4] Group 3: Investment Areas - Billionaires plan to increase their exposure to private equity, with 49% indicating plans to invest more in this area over the next 12 months [5] - Other areas of interest include hedge funds (43%), developed market equities (43%), and emerging market equities (42%) [5] - The survey indicates a strong preference for public and private equity investments among billionaires, reflecting a strategic shift in their investment focus [6]

Core Insights - Despite ongoing tariff issues, U.S. smartphone shipments are expected to see a slight year-on-year increase in Q3 2025, driven by rising imports from Vietnam and India, even as imports from China decline [1][2] Group 1: Market Performance - In Q2 2025, U.S. smartphone shipments grew by 2% year-on-year, attributed to increased imports from regions outside China [2] - Apple's market share has declined both year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter, although the iPhone 16e has shown strong performance, maintaining annual shipment growth [1][3] - Samsung experienced a slight year-on-year increase of 1 basis point, but a quarter-on-quarter decline of 3 basis points, primarily due to strong growth from Google [1][3] - Motorola's performance weakened in Q3, with declines in both year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter market share, attributed to soft prepaid demand influenced by macroeconomic and political factors [1] Group 2: Competitive Landscape - Samsung achieved a double-digit year-on-year growth, benefiting from increased shipments of high-end models, raising its market share by 3 basis points to 27% [3] - Motorola has maintained a double-digit market share for five consecutive quarters, driven by competitive pressure in the prepaid market and an early launch of the RAZR 2025 series [3][4] - HMD's exit from the U.S. market creates new opportunities for other smartphone brands to capture market share [4] Group 3: Historical Trends - In Q1 2025, smartphone shipments increased by 9% year-on-year, largely due to preemptive stocking to avoid potential tariff impacts, especially in March [5] - Apple's market share reached a record high of 57% in Q1 2025, driven by the launch of the iPhone 16e and early shipments before April [5] - Samsung's market share fell from 31% in Q1 2024 to 25%, partly due to increased shipments from Apple and weaker performance of the S25 model [5]

责任编辑：王永生 责任编辑：王永生 据一名美国官员透露，由美国贸易代表办公室副代表里克·斯威策（ Rick Switzer）率领的特朗普政府谈 判团队计划下周前往印度，继续就一项贸易协议进行谈判。该官员要求匿名，未透露代表团此次访问的 更多细节。印度总理纳伦德拉·莫迪领导的政府一直希望与特朗普政府达成一项初步协议，以降低对印 度商品征收的 50%的关税，这些关税阻碍了该国经济的关键领域发展。印度商务部长拉杰什·阿格拉瓦 尔上周在一场行业活动中表示："我们非常乐观且充满希望，相信今年内我们能够找到一些解决方案。 首先需要达成的是一个能够解决相互关税问题的框架性贸易协议。" 据一名美国官员透露，由美国贸易代表办公室副代表里克·斯威策（ Rick Switzer）率领的特朗普政府谈 判团队计划下周前往印度，继续就一项贸易协议进行谈判。该官员要求匿名，未透露代表团此次访问的 更多细节。印度总理纳伦德拉·莫迪领导的政府一直希望与特朗普政府达成一项初步协议，以降低对印 度商品征收的 50%的关税，这些关税阻碍了该国经济的关键领域发展。印度商务部长拉杰什·阿格拉瓦 尔上周在一场行业活动中表示："我们非常乐观且充满希望，相信 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Spot prices have reached a short - term peak, and the futures market has declined, in line with the report's expectations. The core issue is the direction of spot freight rates, and the main contract may be in the bottom - building process. It is recommended to participate with a light position or wait and see. Attention should be paid to tariff policies, the Middle East situation, and spot freight rates [2][4]. - The market is in a fierce long - short game with no obvious trading direction, and the futures market is weakly oscillating [4]. 3. Summary by Related Content a. Freight Indexes - On November 17, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 1357.67 points, down 9.8% from the previous period; the SCFIS for the US - West route was 1238.42 points, down 6.9% from the previous period. The Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) announced price was 1451.38 points, down 43.72 points from the previous period. The SCFI European line price was 1417 USD/TEU, up 7.1% from the previous period; the SCFI US - West route was 1823 USD/FEU, down 17.59% from the previous period [3]. - On November 14, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) (composite index) was 999.69 points, down 5.12% from the previous period; the NCFI (European route) was 979.34 points, up 7.42% from the previous period; the NCFI (US - West route) was 1052.43 points, down 21.99% from the previous period. The China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) (composite index) was 1094.03 points, up 3.4% from the previous period; the CCFI (European route) was 1403.64 points, up 2.7% from the previous period; the CCFI (US - West route) was 846.24 points, up 3.9% from the previous period [3]. b. Economic Data - In October, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.0%, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, and the comprehensive PMI output index was 50.0%, down 0.6 percentage points from the previous month. The US October S&P Global services PMI was 55.2, the manufacturing PMI was 52.2, and the composite PMI was 54.8. The eurozone's October manufacturing PMI was 45.9, the services PMI was 51.2, and the composite PMI was 49.7. The eurozone's October Sentix investor confidence index was expected to be - 8.5 [3][4]. c. Futures Market - On November 20, the main contract 2602 closed at 1631.0, down 1.39%, with a trading volume of 32,800 lots and an open interest of 42,000 lots, an increase of 1785 lots from the previous day [4]. d. Strategies - Short - term strategy: The main contract has retreated, and the far - month contracts are relatively strong. Risk - takers were advised to go long lightly in the 1550 - 1600 range of the EC2602 contract, and some profit - taking has been recommended. Attention should be paid to spot trends, and it is not recommended to hold losing positions. Set stop - losses [5]. - Arbitrage strategy: In the context of international turmoil, each contract still follows seasonal logic with large fluctuations. It is recommended to wait and see or try with a light position [5]. - Long - term strategy: It has been recommended to take profits when each contract rises, wait for the callback to stabilize, and then judge the subsequent direction [5]. e. Contract Adjustments - The daily limit for contracts 2508 - 2606 has been adjusted to 18%. The company's margin for contracts 2508 - 2606 has been adjusted to 28%. The daily opening limit for all contracts 2508 - 2606 is 100 lots [5].

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - Spot prices have reached a short - term peak, and the futures market has declined, which is in line with the report's expectations. The core issue is the direction of spot freight rates, and the main contract may be in the bottom - building process. It is recommended to participate with a light position or wait and see. Attention should be paid to tariff policies, the Middle - East situation, and spot freight rates [2][4]. - The market has intense long - short competition, with no obvious trading direction, and the futures market is weakly volatile [4]. Group 3: Summary by Related Content Freight Index - On November 17, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 1357.67 points, down 9.8% from the previous period; the SCFIS for the US - West route was 1238.42 points, down 6.9% from the previous period. The Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) announced a price of 1451.38 points, down 43.72 points from the previous period. The SCFI European line price was 1417 USD/TEU, up 7.1% from the previous period; the SCFI US - West route was 1823 USD/FEU, down 17.59% from the previous period [3]. - On November 14, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) (composite index) was 999.69 points, down 5.12% from the previous period; the NCFI (European route) was 979.34 points, up 7.42% from the previous period; the NCFI (US - West route) was 1052.43 points, down 21.99% from the previous period. The China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) (composite index) was 1094.03 points, up 3.4% from the previous period; the CCFI (European route) was 1403.64 points, up 2.7% from the previous period; the CCFI (US - West route) was 846.24 points, up 3.9% from the previous period [3]. Economic Data - In October, China's Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) was 49.0%, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, and the manufacturing prosperity level declined. The Composite PMI Output Index was 50.0%, down 0.6 percentage points from the previous month, indicating that the overall production and operation activities of Chinese enterprises were stable [4]. - The preliminary value of the Eurozone's manufacturing PMI in October was 45.9 (expected 45.1, previous value 45); the preliminary value of the service - sector PMI was 51.2 (expected 51.5, previous value 51.4); the preliminary value of the composite PMI was 49.7 (expected 49.7, previous value 49.6). The Eurozone's Sentix Investor Confidence Index in October had a previous value of - 9.2 and a forecast value of - 8.5 [3]. - The preliminary value of the US S&P Global Services PMI in October was 55.2 (expected 53.5, previous value 54.2); the preliminary value of the manufacturing PMI was 52.2 (expected 52, previous value 52); the preliminary value of the composite PMI was 54.8 (expected 53.1, previous value 53.9) [4]. Contract Information - On November 20, the main contract 2602 closed at 1631.0, down 1.39%, with a trading volume of 32,800 lots and an open interest of 42,000 lots, an increase of 1785 lots from the previous day [4]. Strategy - Short - term strategy: The main contract has pulled back, and the far - month contracts are relatively strong. Risk - preferring investors have been advised to lightly test long positions in the EC2602 contract in the 1550 - 1600 range and have been advised to take partial profits. Attention should be paid to the spot trend, and it is not recommended to hold losing positions. Set stop - losses [5]. - Arbitrage strategy: Against the background of international turmoil, each contract still follows the seasonal logic with large fluctuations. It is recommended to wait and see or lightly test positions [5]. - Long - term strategy: Each contract has been advised to take profits when it rises and wait for the price to stabilize after a pullback before judging the subsequent direction [5]. Contract Adjustments - The daily limit for contracts 2508 - 2606 has been adjusted to 18% [5]. - The company's margin for contracts 2508 - 2606 has been adjusted to 28% [5]. - The daily opening limit for all contracts 2508 - 2606 is 100 lots [5].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Spot freight rates are lower than the announced increase, suppressing the market to decline, and the main contract may be in the bottom - building process. It is recommended to participate with a light position or wait and see. Attention should be paid to tariff policies, the Middle East situation, and spot freight rates [1][2] - The impact of the tariff issue has shown a marginal effect, and the current core is the trend of spot freight rates [2] Summary by Related Content Freight Rate Index - From November 14th to 17th, the NCFI (comprehensive index) dropped 5.12% to 999.69 points, the SCFIS (European route) decreased 9.8% to 1357.67 points, the NCFI (European route) rose 7.42% to 979.34 points, the SCFIS (US - West route) fell 6.9% to 1238.42 points, and the NCFI (US - West route) dropped 21.99% to 1052.43 points [1] - From November 14th, the SCFI published price dropped 43.72 points to 1451.38 points, the CCFI (comprehensive index) rose 3.4% to 1094.03 points, the SCFI European route price rose 7.1% to 1417 USD/TEU, the CCFI (European route) rose 2.7% to 1403.64 points, the SCFI US - West route dropped 17.59% to 1823 USD/FEU, and the CCFI (US - West route) rose 3.9% to 846.24 points [1] Economic Data - In the Eurozone in October, the manufacturing PMI initial value was 45.9 (expected 45.1, previous 45), the services PMI initial value was 51.2 (expected 51.5, previous 51.4), the composite PMI initial value was 49.7 (expected 49.7, previous 49.6), and the Sentix investor confidence index was - 9.2 (previous value, forecast - 8.5) [1] - In October in China, the manufacturing PMI was 49.0%, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, and the composite PMI output index was 50.0%, down 0.6 percentage points from the previous month [1] - In the US in October, the S&P Global services PMI initial value was 55.2 (expected 53.5, previous 54.2), the manufacturing PMI initial value was 52.2 (expected 52), and the composite PMI initial value was 54.8 (expected 53.1, previous 53.9) [2] Market Conditions - On November 19th, the main contract 2602 closed at 1640.1, with a decline of 2.66%, a trading volume of 18,700 lots, and an open interest of 40,200 lots, an increase of 1384 lots from the previous day [2] - Bearish sentiment persists, and the overall market is under pressure due to spot freight rates being lower than the expected announced increase [2] Strategies - Short - term strategy: For risk - preference investors, it is recommended to lightly test long positions in the EC2602 contract in the 1550 - 1600 range, consider partial profit - taking, pay attention to spot trends, not hold losing positions, and set stop - losses [3] - Arbitrage strategy: In the context of international situation turmoil, it is recommended to wait and see or lightly try due to large fluctuations in each contract [3] - Long - term strategy: It is recommended to take profit when each contract rises, wait for the callback to stabilize, and then judge the subsequent direction [3] Contract Adjustments - The daily limit for contracts 2508 - 2606 is adjusted to 18% [3] - The company's margin for contracts 2508 - 2606 is adjusted to 28% [3] - The daily opening limit for all contracts 2508 - 2606 is 100 lots [3]