近日，摩根士丹利针对北美大型银行2025年第三季度(3Q25)业绩前瞻与关键指标发布研报，将模型进行 调整，覆盖北美货币中心银行(美银、花旗、高盛、摩根大通等)、超级区域银行(PNC、地区金融公司 等)及信托银行(纽约梅隆银行、道富银行等)三类机构，为10月14日启动的银行财报季提供核心预测。 存款结构上，无息存款占比缓慢下降，如美银2025E 26.0%，2024年26.7%，计息存款成本逐步降低， 如美银2025E 2.23%，2024年2.61%，缓解息差压力。净息差(NIM)整体稳定，2025E中位数2.50%，超级 区域银行净息差较高，地区金融公司(RF.US)2025E为3.60%，信托银行较低，纽约梅隆银行 (BK.US)2025E为1.28%。 费用收入是核心增长动力之一，投行业务费增速显著超共识：M&A费用2025E同比增长30%，市场共识 增长11%，ECM费用同比增长41%，共识增长30%，DCM费用同比增长4%，市场共识增长3%;摩根大 通、高盛等货币中心银行手续费收入2025E同比增长超9%。拨备与不良资产方面，2025年拨备温和增 长，摩根大通2025E拨备122.12亿美元，同比 ...

金融专场-2025 研究框架线上培训 摘要 寿险产品不仅是保险合同，更是价值观念的传递，需不断扩展业务范围 以满足客户多样化需求。寿险公司通过并购扩大市场份额、获取客户资 源并提升产品多样性，优化资产负债表，提高资本回报率，实现规模经 济效应。 寿险与财险在承保标的和风险管理上存在显著区别。财险承保物体，风 险评估相对简单；寿险承保人的生命，涉及复杂的人口统计和精算模型， 存在利率风险。寿险销售更侧重于价值观念的传递，而非简单的产品定 价。 保险公司定价逻辑基于成本加成法，包括死亡赔付、运营费用和时间成 本。精算师通过分析历史数据预测未来现金流，并根据预定利率贴现计 算保单现值，死差、费差和利差是定价的关键因素。 中国保险行业经历了三波发展：2013 年重疾险驱动，2015 年代理人考 试取消推动，2020 年后惠民保冲击。惠民保以低成本满足大众需求， 对传统重疾险市场造成冲击，新业务价值断崖式下降。 Q&A 保险公司的定价逻辑主要基于成本加成法。具体来说，一张保单包括三项主要 成本：死亡赔付、运营费用和时间成本（即投资收益率）。在此基础上，公司 会对死亡率、费用和利率进行加成，从而确定最终价格。这就是所谓的 ...

证券日报网讯平安银行（000001）9月30日在互动平台回答投资者提问时表示，2025年上半年，本行净 息差1.80%，较去年同期下降16个基点，主要受市场利率下行、贷款业务结构调整等因素影响。在资产 重新定价及支持实体经济的背景下，预计净息差仍有下行压力，但下行幅度有望趋缓。后续本行将继续 加强资产负债组合管理，精细化定价管理，做好前瞻引导，缓解息差下行。资产端，持续做好大类资产 配置，鼓励优质信贷投放；同时，加强市场研判，灵活动态配置同业资产，提升资金运用效率。负债 端，聚焦引导吸收低成本存款，管控高成本存款，全力控制和降低整体负债成本。 ...

[Table_Reportdate] 2025年09月30日 公 司 简 评 [Table_invest] 增持（维持） 报告原因：业绩点评 [工商银行（ Table_NewTitle] 601398）：息差降幅收窄，资 产质量稳定 ——公司简评报告 《工商银行（601398）：息差和中间 业务收入压力或趋于平缓——公司 简评报告》 2025.05.13 《工商银行（601398）：息差压力缓 解，资产质量整体稳定——公司简评 报告》 2025.04.25 《工商银行（601398）：付息率明显 改善，资产质量稳定 ——公司简评 报告》 2024.11.01 [table_main] 投资要点 公 司 研 究 王鸿行 S0630522050001 whxing@longone.com.cn | [数据日期 Table_cominfo] | 2025/09/29 | | --- | --- | | 收盘价 | 7.33 | | 总股本(万股) | 35,640,626 | | 流通A股/B股(万股) | 26,961,221/0 | | 资产负债率(%) | 92.09% | | 市净率(倍) | 0.63 | ...

中共中央政治局9月29日召开会议，研究制定国民经济和社会发展第十五个五年规划重大问 题。会议决定，中国共产党第二十届中央委员会第四次全体会议于10月20日至23日在北京召 开。 近日，中国人民银行货币政策委员会召开第三季度例会。例会将此前的"实施好适度宽松的货 币政策"改为"落实落细"，与7月底中央政治局会议的部署保持一致，这意味着政策着力点将转 向执行层面。 而货币政策之所以着力在存量的执行层面，应主要基于两个原因：一方面，当前经济保持平 稳，宽松必要性不强。例会对国内经济运行的描述从二季度的"呈现向好态势"调整为"稳中有 进"，将"高质量发展扎实推进"改为"取得新成效"，在困难和挑战方面删掉了此前"风险隐患较 多"的表述，仅保留"国内需求不足、物价低位运行"，显示出对经济基本面的信心有所增强。 从今年前8个月数据来看，规模以上工业增加值累计同比增长6.2%，略低于上半年的6.4%，服 务业生产指数累计同比增长5.9%，与上半年持平。当前经济增速保持在5.0%的目标水平之 上，实现全年经济社会发展目标任务可期，暂时无需政策加码。 另一方面，则由于货币宽松一定程度上受到净息差收窄的影响。央行多次表示，中国的货 ...

报告指出，由于今年5月银行体系总结余扩张，港元流动性转趋宽松，导致短期香港银行同业拆息在上 半年大幅下跌。例如，三个月香港银行同业拆息在2025年上半年下跌269个基点，达至2025年6月底的 1.68%。然而，随着银行体系总结余在弱方兑换保证于6月下旬起至8月中被触发后减少，香港银行同业 拆息已自此开始回升。 香港银行业回顾期内保持稳健 香港银行业的资本维持充裕。本地注册认可机构的综合总资本比率在2025年上半年末处于24.4%的高 位，远高于8%的国际最低标准。此外，本地注册认可机构的非风险为本杠杆比率于2025年6月底录得 7.9%的稳健水平，超过3%的法定最低水平。 报告称特定分类贷款比率在回顾期内仍然面对上升压力，但银行业整体资产质素风险维持可控及银行拨 备充足。认可机构的总特定分类贷款比率由2024年12月底的1.96%微升至2025年6月底的1.97%。认可机 构的逾期及经重组贷款比率亦由2024年12月底的1.55%上升至2025年6月底的1.58%。 家庭资产负债情况健康 个人贷款方面，家庭负债在2025年上半年增长1.8%，增幅大于2024年下半年的0.6%。数据细分显示， 随着期内住宅物 ...

Group 1 - The LPR has remained unchanged for four consecutive months, with the 1-year rate at 3.0% and the 5-year rate at 3.5% [1][3] - Commercial banks' net interest margin has dropped to a historical low of 1.42% as of Q2 2025, down 10 basis points from the previous quarter [3][9] - The traditional banking model of earning interest from loans and deposits is under unprecedented pressure due to declining loan interest rates and limited room for deposit rate cuts [5][9] Group 2 - The current deposit rates for large commercial banks have reached historical lows, with demand deposit rates at 0.05% and 1-year fixed deposit rates at 0.95% [5][9] - The LPR pricing mechanism is influenced by the 7-day reverse repurchase rate, which has remained stable at 1.40%, limiting the potential for LPR decreases [5][7] - The net interest margin has fallen below the non-performing loan rate, indicating a significant imbalance between bank earnings and risks [9][14] Group 3 - Non-interest income from intermediary business has shown signs of recovery, with a 6.97% year-on-year growth in the first half of 2025, indicating banks are seeking new profit growth points [9] - The collaboration between banks and insurance companies has become a key focus, with significant growth in insurance sales through bank channels [9][11] - The global monetary policy landscape is diverging, with some countries maintaining their interest rates while others follow the U.S. Federal Reserve's lead [11][13]

Core Viewpoint - Beijing Bank has faced significant challenges in the current low-interest-rate environment, resulting in a substantial decline in its stock price and market capitalization, with a 22% drop over nearly 52 trading days and a loss of over 34 billion yuan in market value [1] Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, Beijing Bank reported operating income of 36.218 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.02%, and a net profit of 15.053 billion yuan, up 1.12% year-on-year, indicating a slowdown in growth [1] - In contrast, Jiangsu Bank, now the leading city commercial bank, achieved revenue and net profit growth of 7.78% and 8.05% respectively during the same period, widening the performance gap [1][2] - Beijing Bank's revenue growth has been outpaced by its rising business and management expenses, which reached 9.441 billion yuan, a 3.62% increase, further eroding net profit [2] Interest Margin and Asset Quality - The net interest margin for Beijing Bank decreased from 1.47% at the end of 2024 to 1.31% by mid-2025, continuing a downward trend since 2018 [4] - As of the second quarter of 2025, the average net interest margin for city commercial banks was 1.37%, placing Beijing Bank below this average and ranking it seventh from the bottom among 30 listed city commercial banks [6] - The bank's non-interest income ratio was 28.63%, significantly lower than peers like Ningbo Bank and Hangzhou Bank, which exceeded 30% [8] Capital Adequacy and Risk Management - By the end of the second quarter of 2025, Beijing Bank's provision coverage ratio fell to 195.74%, down from 208.75% at the end of 2024, indicating weakened risk resilience [9] - The core tier one capital adequacy ratio decreased from 8.95% at the end of 2024 to 8.59%, ranking sixth from the bottom among its peers [10] - The bank's capital quality is declining despite an increase in capital scale, which may limit its business expansion capabilities [10] Management Changes and Legal Issues - In 2025, Beijing Bank experienced significant personnel changes, including the appointment of a new president and several board members, amidst ongoing challenges [11] - The bank is also facing legal repercussions related to the "Kangde Xin financial fraud case," which has negatively impacted its reputation and operations [11]

Core Viewpoint - 瑞丰银行的股价在近期有所下跌，当前市值为105.17亿人民币，位于农商行板块的第9位 [1] Shareholder Changes - 绍兴安途汽车于9月16日通过集中竞价减持瑞丰银行股份4,088,300股，占总股本的0.21%，减持后持股比例降至5.89% [2] Institutional Research Highlights - 逾期贷款率上升主要由于个人贷款逾期增加，风险总体可控，不会显著影响不良贷款率的稳定 [3] - 2025年上半年净息差为1.46%，同比下降4个基点，预计下半年将边际企稳 [3] - 贷款主要投向“三农”、民营小微及实体经济，预计四季度信贷需求将因传统产业旺季而增长 [3][4] Capital Adequacy and Debt Issuance - 2025年半年度资本充足率为14.11%，可转债发行正在上交所审核，预计将有效补充核心一级资本 [4][5] Bond Investment Strategy - 截至2025年6月末，债权投资规模为305.42亿元，其他债权投资为355.15亿元，交易性金融资产为101.40亿元 [5]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market," indicating an expected relative increase of over 10% in the industry index compared to the broader market within the next six months [4][7]. Core Insights - The net profit growth of 42 listed banks turned positive in Q2, with a year-on-year increase of 3.0% for the quarter and 0.8% for the first half of 2025, benefiting from a comprehensive improvement in revenue [1]. - The net interest margin (NIM) decline has narrowed, with a NIM of 1.53% for the first half of 2025, down 8 basis points from the beginning of the year, showing an improvement compared to the 14 basis points decline in the same period last year [1]. - The overall asset growth rate of the industry has increased, with total assets of 42 listed banks growing by 9.6% year-on-year as of the end of the first half of 2025, reflecting a 2.1 percentage point increase from the previous quarter [2]. - Asset quality remains stable, with a non-performing loan (NPL) ratio of 1.23% as of the end of the first half of 2025, remaining largely unchanged from the previous quarter [2]. - The report suggests that the improvement in bank performance in Q2 2025 reflects strong operational resilience, with expectations for stability in performance increasing [3]. Summary by Sections Profitability - The net profit of listed banks showed a year-on-year growth of 3.0% in Q2 2025, with a 0.8% increase in the first half of 2025, reversing the negative trend observed in Q1 2025 [1]. - Revenue for listed banks increased by 1.0% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, with a notable improvement in non-interest income [1]. Asset Quality - The NPL ratio for the industry was 1.23% as of the end of the first half of 2025, with a slight decrease in the attention rate and an increase in the overdue rate [2]. - The provision coverage ratio stood at 287.29%, reflecting a minor decrease from the previous quarter [2]. Market Outlook - The report indicates that the current dividend yield of the banking sector remains attractive, and regulatory encouragement for increased market participation by insurance funds is expected to support the sector's valuation [3]. - Future incremental capital is anticipated to sustain the sector's market performance [3].