来源：金十数据 美股频道更多独家策划、专家专栏，免费查阅>> 责任编辑：栎树 1月9日，人力资源服务提供商Adecco Staffing负责业务运营的高级副总裁Amy Glaser表示，看到了一些 积极的信号，无论是在招聘方面，还是在裁员速度放缓方面。因此，2026年（劳动力市场）看起来相当 乐观，这将是稳定的一年。2025年大部分时间里，劳动力市场在狭窄区间内波动，处于既不冷也不热的 中间状态，预计2026年也将维持这种态势，市场情绪是谨慎乐观的。 盈透证券高级经济学家Jose Torres表示，由于预期美联储将进一步放宽政策，今年市场信心有所增强， 这将切实提振周期性行业的招聘。此外，Torres认为2026年另一个值得关注的趋势是员工留任，即企业 着力维持现有团队而非裁员或激进招聘。雇主们真的很看重那些留下来的员工，并为他们提供加薪、额 外奖金和津贴。 ...

智通财经APP获悉，美国12月劳动力市场预计将呈现温和改善态势，为新年带来些许暖意，但整体动能 仍显不足。这份备受关注的报告将于北京时间周五晚21:30由美国劳工统计局发布。 尽管表面数据显示失业率处于历史低位，但部分美联储政策制定者担忧，劳动力市场的裂痕可能在今年 变得更加明显。支持近期连续三次降息的官员认为，支持就业前景的必要性已超过对通胀复燃的担忧。 美联储官员还提及就业增长存在"系统性高估"，这是其保持谨慎的原因之一。 盈透证券高级经济学家何塞·托雷斯表示，市场一直寄望于美联储将在必要时再次干预。"市场信心今年 有所增强，正是基于对美联储将进一步宽松的预期。这将切实提振周期性更强领域的招聘。" 截至目前，就业增长主要集中在受益于扩张性财政政策的领域，尤其是医疗保健和政府部门。格拉瑟预 计这一趋势将持续。除此之外，她认为2026年另一个值得关注的趋势是"保留员工"——企业更倾向于留 住现有员工，而非裁员或激进招聘。 "雇主非常重视留任员工，并通过加薪、额外奖金和福利来激励他们，"格拉瑟强调，"那些做对了的雇 主正在加大对员工技能提升与再培训的投资。" 市场一致预测显示，12月非农就业人数预计增加7.3万 ...

Core Points - The U.S. non-farm payroll report for September has not been released due to the government shutdown, with Labor Secretary Chavez-Deremer stating it will be published once the government reopens [1] - The Chicago Fed President Goolsbee estimates the unemployment rate for September to be around 4.3%, indicating a stable labor market, but expresses caution regarding significant interest rate cuts [1] - Goldman Sachs reports a slight increase in initial jobless claims, with approximately 224,000 claims for the week ending September 27, up from 218,000 in the previous report [1] Employment Data - The September non-farm employment data is pending publication due to the government shutdown, with implications for market activity [1] - Initial jobless claims have risen slightly, indicating potential shifts in the labor market [1][2] - Continuous claims for unemployment benefits decreased from 1.93 million to 1.91 million, suggesting some stability in ongoing employment [1]

Group 1 - The U.S. labor market showed signs of further cooling, with non-farm payrolls increasing by only 22,000 in August, significantly below the market expectation of 80,000 [1] - The unemployment rate rose by 0.1 percentage points to 4.3%, the highest level since November 2021, indicating a potential shift in the labor market dynamics [1][3] - Manufacturing jobs have been particularly affected, with a loss of 12,000 jobs in August and a total decline of 42,000 jobs from May to August, attributed to tariff uncertainties [3][4] Group 2 - Analysts predict a high probability (89%) of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September, with some suggesting a possibility of a 50 basis point cut due to the weak employment data [1][5] - The labor market's deterioration may lead the Federal Reserve to prioritize labor market stability over inflation targets, as indicated by the comments from analysts [1][5] - The healthcare and leisure sectors showed resilience, while manufacturing, construction, and federal government jobs continued to decline, reflecting broader demand-side weaknesses [4] Group 3 - The market consensus leans towards a 25 basis point cut, but there is debate over the extent of the cut, with some analysts arguing for a larger reduction due to the disappointing employment figures [5][6] - The potential for a more dovish Federal Reserve is influenced by ongoing political maneuvers, including the appointment of more dovish members to the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) [6]

Core Viewpoint - The number of initial jobless claims in the U.S. unexpectedly decreased last week, indicating stability in the labor market despite a slowdown in hiring, making it harder for many laid-off workers to find new job opportunities [1] Summary by Relevant Sections Initial Jobless Claims - For the week ending July 19, the seasonally adjusted initial jobless claims decreased by 4,000 to 217,000, which was lower than expected [1] - This marks a decline from the eight-month high reached in June [1] Continuing Jobless Claims - For the week ending July 12, the seasonally adjusted continuing jobless claims increased by 4,000 to 1.955 million [1] Economic Outlook - Goldman Sachs economist Elsie Peng noted that as immigration continues to slow, the "stability threshold" for job growth—defined as the monthly job additions needed to keep the unemployment rate stable—is expected to decrease from the current estimate of 90,000 to 70,000 by the end of 2025 [1]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - System-wide revenue for the quarter was $4.9 billion, with reported revenue at $4.5 billion, down 3% year over year in constant currency [9][12] - Reported EBITDA for the quarter was $72 million, while adjusted EBITDA was $89 million, representing a decrease of 25% in constant currency year over year [9][10] - Adjusted earnings per share decreased 43% year over year in constant currency, with reported losses per share at $1.44 and adjusted EPS at $0.78 [10][14] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - On an organic constant currency basis, the Manpower brand had growth of 1%, while the Experis brand declined by 9% and the Talent Solutions brand grew by 1% [14][15] - The Manpower brand comprised 62% of gross profit, with the Experis brand at 22% and Talent Solutions at 16% [16] - Consolidated gross profit decreased by 5% on an organic constant currency basis year over year, with the Manpower brand reporting flat organic constant currency gross profit year over year [16][17] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Revenue in the Americas segment was $1.1 billion, representing a 2% year-over-year increase on a constant currency basis [19] - Revenue in Southern Europe was $2.1 billion, reflecting a 2% decrease in organic constant currency [23] - Revenue in Northern Europe was $794 million, representing a 10% decline in constant currency [26] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on market share gains by targeting faster-growing industry verticals and leveraging AI for sales targeting [42][43] - The strategy includes moving certain businesses to franchise models to enhance local market growth [46] - The company continues to invest in digital transformation and AI capabilities to support evolving client needs and drive productivity [35][38] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management noted a stabilization in the U.S. and parts of Europe, with a cautious outlook in Northern Europe due to economic and geopolitical headwinds [9][60] - The company anticipates ongoing stability in most markets and forecasts earnings per share for Q3 to be in the range of $0.77 to $0.87 [32] - Management highlighted the potential for improved market conditions in Northern Europe if economic uncertainties subside [60][62] Other Important Information - The company received multiple accolades, including being named Forbes America's number one temp staffing firm and recognized for sustainability [39] - Free cash flow represented an outflow of $7 million compared to an outflow of $150 million in the prior year, with expectations for strong free cash flow in the second half of the year [30] Q&A Session Summary Question: Market share gains strategy - The company is targeting faster-growing industry verticals and using AI to enhance sales targeting, resulting in improved revenue performance [42][43] Question: Franchise model expansion - The company is exploring additional markets for the franchise model to enhance local growth and brand deployment [46] Question: U.S. trends and organic growth outlook - The U.S. business saw a 3% decline overall, but the Manpower brand grew by 9%, indicating strong market performance [48][49] Question: Northern Europe revenue trends - Management indicated that Northern Europe is facing challenges due to economic conditions, but expects improvements as the economic environment stabilizes [60][62] Question: Impact of defense spending on industrial sectors - The company anticipates that increased defense and infrastructure spending in Europe will positively impact broader economic conditions and manufacturing sectors [95][96]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the US manufacturing sector remains sluggish in June, with new orders weak and input prices rising, suggesting that tariffs imposed by the Trump administration continue to hinder businesses' planning capabilities [2] - The latest data shows that the ISM manufacturing PMI for June increased slightly from May's six-month low of 48.5 to 49.0, marking the fourth consecutive month below 50, indicating contraction in the manufacturing sector, which accounts for 10.2% of the economy [2] - Despite economic uncertainties, the labor market remains stable, as evidenced by an unexpected rise in job vacancies in May to the highest level since November of the previous year, with job openings increasing from a revised 7.4 million in April to 7.77 million in May, surpassing economists' expectations [2] Group 2 - COMEX gold prices are currently trading at $3342.10 per ounce, down 0.23%, with a daily high of $3354.80 and a low of $3340.70 [3] - The short-term outlook for COMEX gold indicates resistance levels at $3380-$3390 and support levels at $3230-$3240 [3]

Core Insights - The number of job vacancies in the U.S. unexpectedly rose to the highest level since November, indicating stability in the labor market despite economic uncertainties [1] - The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that available job openings increased from a revised 7.4 million in April to 7.77 million in May, surpassing all expectations from a Bloomberg survey of economists [1] Labor Market Analysis - Job openings reached 7.77 million, exceeding the previous month's revised figure of 7.4 million [1] - The decline in layoffs suggests a resilient labor market, which may influence economic forecasts positively [1]

Core Insights - The resilience of the American consumer health is strong, indicating a robust economic environment [1] - The leverage levels among consumers are low, suggesting a lower risk of default and financial distress [1] - The labor market remains stable, contributing to overall economic confidence and spending power [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's Bostic reiterated the expectation of one interest rate cut this year, while emphasizing the need to consider the latest data before making decisions [1] Summary by Relevant Sections - Interest Rate Outlook - Bostic anticipates a rate cut in 2025 and three cuts next year, indicating a patient approach to maintaining current rates due to a stable labor market [1]