证券研究报告 基金双周报：ETF市场跟踪报告 证券分析师 | 陈 | 瑶 | 投资咨询资格编号：S1060524120003 | | --- | --- | --- | | 郭子睿 | | 投资咨询资格编号：S1060520070003 | | 任书康 | | 投资咨询资格编号：S1060525050001 | | 研究助理 | | | | 高 | 越 | 一般从业资格编号：S1060124070014 | | 胡心怡 | | 一般从业资格编号：S1060124030069 | 2025年8月25日 请务必阅读正文后免责条款 报告摘要 2 ETF市场回顾： • 收益表现与资金流向：近两周ETF产品整体表现较好。主要宽基ETF中，科创50ETF涨幅最大，行业与主题产品中，科技行业ETF涨幅最大。近两周宽基ETF 资金净流出速度放缓，上证50和中证500，中证1000/中证2000系列ETF资金转为净流入，除科创/创业系列ETF外，沪深300和A系列ETF资金净流出速度均有所 放缓。近两周科技ETF资金流入速度小幅加快，新能源ETF资金由净流出转为净流入，红利ETF资金由净流入转为净流出，医药、周期、金融地产、大 ...

- The report does not include any quantitative models or factor construction details related to quantitative finance[1][2][3] - The content primarily focuses on fund performance, market trends, and ESG product tracking without discussing quantitative models or factors[4][5][6] - No specific formulas, construction processes, or backtesting results for quantitative models or factors are provided in the report[7][34][45]

Group 1: Market Performance - On August 11, the market showed divergence with the ChiNext Index rising over 1.00%, while the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.10% and the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 0.71% [1] - The Aerospace ETF Tianhong (159241) rose by 1.31%, with a trading volume exceeding 27 million yuan and a turnover rate over 5% [1] - The Aerospace ETF Tianhong (159241) attracted over 12 million yuan in net inflow on August 8, marking two consecutive days of inflows, totaling over 34 million yuan [1] Group 2: Aerospace ETF Characteristics - As of August 8, the Aerospace ETF Tianhong (159241) had a year-to-date share increase rate exceeding 115%, ranking first among similar products [2] - The ETF closely tracks the National Aerospace Index, which has a significant weight of nearly 98% in the defense and military industry, making it the highest military content index in the market [2] - The National Aerospace Index has a high "aircraft content," with the core sectors of aerospace and aviation equipment accounting for nearly 67% of its weight, focusing on key areas in the aerospace equipment industry chain [2] Group 3: Industry Developments - The merger between China Shipbuilding and China Heavy Industry in the shipbuilding sector has reached a critical stage after a year of coordination and approval [3] - Both companies announced on August 5 that the stock swap merger has received official approval from the CSRC, with trading of their stocks suspended from August 13 [3] - The military industry sector has shown strong performance recently, with a three-month consecutive increase, although there may be short-term profit-taking pressure due to recent gains [3]

Market Overview - The market is currently experiencing a phase of consolidation, with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching new highs but failing to maintain those gains, indicating a need for time and space to digest recent movements [3][4][5] - The market sentiment is cautious, with a notable divergence between indices, particularly a stronger Shanghai index compared to weaker Shenzhen and ChiNext indices, reflecting internal market discrepancies [4][20] - Trading volume has decreased, with a total turnover of approximately 1.7 trillion, suggesting a lack of enthusiasm for chasing higher prices, which may hinder the ability to initiate a new upward trend [4][20] Sector Performance - Traditional sectors such as cement, engineering machinery, and hydropower have shown strong rebounds, while AI application sectors have collectively declined, negatively impacting market sentiment [3][19] - The military industry has seen significant gains, with a notable increase in stock prices, supported by government policies and geopolitical tensions that may act as catalysts for further growth [11][12] - The robotics sector has also experienced substantial growth, with a 60% increase in related stocks since early January, although a recent pullback suggests caution is warranted [12] - Precious metals have risen due to factors such as the onset of a rate-cutting cycle by the Federal Reserve and increased geopolitical tensions, which have driven demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [14] - The semiconductor sector remains a focal point for investment, with expectations of continued growth driven by government support and rising global demand for AI and high-performance computing [16] Investment Strategy - The report emphasizes the importance of selecting stocks with high certainty in performance and reasonable valuations, particularly those benefiting from policy support or industry trends [5][21] - Investors are advised to focus on sectors with structural opportunities, such as semiconductors, AI, and healthcare, while being cautious of stocks that have risen significantly without strong fundamental backing [5][21] - The outlook for the A-share market suggests a "slow bull" trend, with structural opportunities requiring enhanced stock-picking skills and timing [5][21]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - During the week from July 28 to August 2, 2025, the convertible bond market experienced intensified structural differentiation, with the index under slight pressure, mid - cap style leading the decline, and risk appetite marginally decreasing. The market style tilted towards growth, with technology and pharmaceutical themes driving the activity of related convertible bonds. The manufacturing sectors such as power equipment and electronics attracted more capital attention, and speculative varieties performed well. The valuation continued to undergo structural adjustment, with the repair momentum remaining in the medium - low price range and the high - price range under pressure. The supply rhythm of the primary market was stable, with many redemption and downward - revision events, and the speculative sentiment heated up. It is recommended to focus on individual bonds with fundamental support, valuation safety margins, and liquidity guarantees, and flexibly cope with style rotation and market fluctuations [2][5]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1待发转债格局如何？ - As of August 2, 2025, there were 75 convertible bonds to be issued, with a total planned fundraising scale of 108.2 billion yuan. The banking, power equipment, basic chemicals, and electronics sectors were the main sources of issuance, accounting for nearly 60% of the total scale. The banking sector led with a high average scale of 7.25 billion yuan, contributing nearly 27% of the scale, indicating its strong refinancing demand. The electronics and power equipment sectors led in terms of quantity, reflecting the active convertible bond financing of manufacturing enterprises. Among the 33 convertible bonds to be issued that had entered the exchange stage, the banking sector still dominated, accounting for 43% of the scale [13]. - The convertible bond projects of the banking, non - bank finance, and pharmaceutical biology sectors advanced slowly. The convertible bond projects of the national defense and military industry, public utilities, and transportation sectors had a stronger expectation of issuance. The manufacturing sectors such as electronics and automobiles had a strong financing willingness and a fast project advancement rhythm. From the perspective of asset - liability ratio, some industries such as basic chemicals, electronics, and communications had a stronger motivation to promote conversion after issuing convertible bonds [8][15]. 3.2 Market Theme Weekly Review 3.2.1 Equity Theme Weekly Review - During the week from July 28 to August 2, 2025, the trading themes in the equity market were active, with technology and pharmaceutical themes leading the rise. The optical module (CPO) index led the major theme directions with a weekly cross - week increase of 8.3% and a weekly trading volume of 263.13 billion yuan. The first - board non - ST index and the daily limit index had cross - week increases of over 7%. Pharmaceutical themes such as the pharmaceutical centralized procurement index and the COVID - 19 specific drug index also performed well. Some technology and new energy themes showed corrections [23]. 3.2.2 Convertible Bond Weekly Review - During the week from July 28 to August 2, 2025, the convertible bond market was under pressure, with the trading enthusiasm slightly declining, and the capital risk preference converging. The style switched to defensive varieties. The overall valuation was compressed, and the price structure continued to differentiate. The high - price range was under obvious pressure, while the valuation of low - price convertible bonds was repaired. The implied volatility fluctuated downward, and the market sentiment became cautious. The pharmaceutical and power equipment sectors still attracted capital. Individual bonds showed differentiation, and the leading gainers were mostly driven by strong underlying stocks, showing medium - to long - term and theme - speculative characteristics [25][27]. 3.3 Market Weekly Tracking 3.3.1 Main Indexes Corrected, and the Pharmaceutical Sector Remained the Main Line of the Week - During the week from July 28 to August 2, 2025, the main A - share indexes were generally under pressure. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.9% cross - week, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 1.6%, and the ChiNext Index fell 0.7%. The small - and medium - cap stocks in the science and technology innovation category were relatively resistant to decline. The market's main funds continued to flow out, and the outflow pressure increased. The average daily trading volume of the whole market was about 1.8 trillion yuan, the same as last week [29]. - The A - share market continued the structural differentiation pattern. The pharmaceutical and technology sectors performed strongly, while the consumer and cyclical sectors showed differentiation. The market capital concentrated on the pharmaceutical and technology sectors, and was cautious about the cyclical and high - level correction sectors. In terms of trading volume, the electronics, pharmaceutical, and computer sectors had increased trading volumes, while the non - ferrous metals, power equipment, and machinery sectors had significant capital outflows [34][35]. 3.3.2 The Convertible Bond Market Continued to Strengthen, and Mid - Cap Convertible Bonds Performed Well - During the week from July 28 to August 2, 2025, the convertible bond market was under pressure, with all major indexes falling. Mid - cap convertible bonds led the decline, and small - cap convertible bonds were relatively resistant to decline. The trading activity of the convertible bond market declined, with the average daily trading volume of about 8.244 billion yuan, a decrease of 341 million yuan from the previous week. The convertible bond valuation was compressed according to the parity range and showed a differentiated pattern according to the market price range. The implied volatility of the convertible bond market fluctuated downward, and the market sentiment became cautious. The median price of convertible bonds oscillated downward [44][46][48]. - The convertible bond market by sector generally weakened, with the capital concentration slightly increasing. The pharmaceutical, building materials, and power equipment sectors had the highest average daily trading volumes. Individual bonds were generally under pressure, with technology and cyclical sectors performing better. The leading gainers were mostly driven by strong underlying stocks and showed high - elasticity and theme - speculative preferences [57][58][59]. 3.4 Issuance and Clause Tracking - During the week from July 28 to August 2, 2025, 1 convertible bond was listed, and 11 listed companies updated their convertible bond issuance plans. The total scale of the projects in the exchange acceptance stage and later was 50.05 billion yuan [66][67][68]. - In terms of downward - revision and redemption clauses, 4 convertible bonds announced that they were expected to trigger downward - revision, 2 proposed downward - revision, 8 announced no downward - revision, 8 announced that they were expected to trigger early redemption, 7 announced no early redemption, and 3 announced early redemption [75][80].

Core Viewpoints - The A-share market is expected to maintain a "slow bull" trend, with the Shanghai Composite Index recently surpassing 3600 points, supported by strong performances from banking, insurance, and technology sectors [2][9][11] - The market's overall trend remains positive, with limited adjustment space observed, indicating a stable market structure and a potential for further upward movement [2][9][10] - Structural opportunities are abundant, necessitating a focus on stock selection and market timing due to the anticipated favorable outcomes from tariff negotiations and ongoing policy support [2][10] Market Overview - On August 6, the A-share market experienced a collective rebound, with significant trading volumes of approximately 1.5 trillion yuan on Monday and 1.6 trillion yuan on Tuesday, indicating a healthy market environment [2][6][9] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3617.60 points, up 34.29 points, reflecting a 0.96% increase, while the Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index also saw gains [6][11] - Key sectors that performed well included consumer electronics, automotive components, and banking, while traditional sectors like Chinese medicine and glass fiber faced declines [5][6][9] Sector Analysis - The PEEK materials sector is experiencing significant growth due to increasing demand for lightweight materials in humanoid robots, with a focus on maintaining strength while reducing weight [7] - The consumer electronics sector is projected to benefit from a recovery in demand, with a notable increase in stock performance over the past two years, indicating a positive outlook for 2025 [8][9] - The electronic industry has shown a consistent upward trend, with a 15.50% increase in the first quarter of 2023 and an expected 18.52% rise in 2024, highlighting its importance as a leading economic indicator [8]

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market is experiencing a peak in mid-term earnings forecasts, with several companies seeing significant stock price increases due to strong financial data and strategic positioning, while others face declines due to poor performance [1] Group 1: Company Performance - Xindong Company expects revenue of at least 3.05 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, a 37% increase from 2.22 billion yuan in the same period last year, and a net profit of no less than 790 million yuan, up approximately 215% from 251 million yuan [2] - Yipai Sunshine anticipates revenue between 450 million and 480 million yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 8.77% to 16.03%, and a net profit between 14.5 million and 16.5 million yuan, reflecting a significant increase of 1350% to 1550% [6] - AsiaInfo Technologies reported a revenue of approximately 2.598 billion yuan, a 13.2% decrease year-on-year, and a net loss of about 202 million yuan, which, excluding one-time severance costs, results in a net loss of approximately 48 million yuan [8][10] Group 2: Stock Price Movements - Following the earnings forecast, Xindong Company's stock price surged over 26%, reaching a high of 71.90 HKD, closing at 70.80 HKD, up 24.76% [4] - Yipai Sunshine's stock price increased by over 18%, peaking at 15.93 HKD, and closing at 15.05 HKD, an 11.65% rise [6] - AsiaInfo Technologies' stock initially dropped 2.62% but later rebounded, showing a maximum increase of over 8% during trading [8] Group 3: Market Trends and Expectations - Analysts predict that the AI industry will see explosive growth in 2025, with AsiaInfo reporting a 76-fold increase in revenue from AI model applications and a 78-fold increase in order volume [10] - The market is expected to shift focus to 2026 earnings forecasts after the mid-year reporting period, with a median EPS growth rate of 5% to 10% for Hang Seng Index constituents, and nearly 40% of stocks expected to see EPS growth exceeding 10% [14] - The market may exhibit a "high-cut-low" trend in the second half of the year, favoring sectors with improved sentiment and valuation, such as e-commerce and gaming, while cyclical sectors may accelerate bottoming out due to "anti-involution" trends [14]

Core Insights - The A-share market has seen continuous rotation of hot sectors this year, with some thematic funds achieving notable performance while others have opted for diversified industry selection to mitigate risks and enhance resilience [1][2][4] - Thematic funds tend to attract significant follow-on capital during market upswings, but they may experience substantial drawdowns when the market turns against them, highlighting the importance of risk management and asset allocation [1][4] Thematic Investment Performance - In the first quarter, funds focusing on humanoid robots performed exceptionally well, with the Penghua Carbon Neutrality Theme A fund ranking as the top-performing active equity fund [1] - By the second quarter, the pharmaceutical sector surged, with several pharmaceutical-themed funds, such as Great Wall Pharmaceutical Industry Select A and Bank of China Hong Kong Stock Connect Pharmaceutical A, achieving top rankings [2] Diversified Investment Strategies - Funds like GF Growth Navigator A have maintained a balanced and diversified investment approach, covering multiple sectors including new consumption, automotive, and pharmaceuticals, which has contributed to their strong performance [2][3] - The Noan Multi-Strategy A fund reported a 23.98% increase in the second quarter, emphasizing a balanced investment strategy across various industries such as agriculture, pharmaceuticals, chemicals, and machinery [3] Risk Management and Structural Building - Concentrated investments in a single sector can yield quick returns but may also lead to rapid declines, as seen with the Penghua Carbon Neutrality Theme A fund, which had a 60.26% return in the first quarter but disappeared from the top rankings by mid-year [3] - Funds that employ a full-market selection strategy, like GF Growth Navigator, have shown better stability, with a year-to-date return of 68.29% [3][4] - Morningstar (China) emphasizes that funds with high concentration often exhibit greater volatility and investor return disparities, advising that effective risk management and diversified asset allocation are crucial for long-term success [4]

Group 1: Bond Underwriting - In the first half of 2025, 40 securities firms acted as main underwriters for green bonds, managing 71 bonds/products with a total amount of 59.444 billion yuan [2] - A total of 68 securities firms served as main underwriters for technology innovation bonds, underwriting 380 bonds with a total amount of 381.391 billion yuan [2] Group 2: Public Fund Management - As of the end of Q2 2025, the top three securities asset management firms by public fund management scale are Dongfanghong Asset Management, Huatai Securities Asset Management, and Bank of China Securities, each managing over 100 billion yuan [3] - Three equity fund managers from securities asset management firms have public fund management scales exceeding 10 billion yuan, specifically from Dongfanghong and Zhongtai Asset Management [3] Group 3: Public Fund Market Data - The total scale of public funds reached a record high of 34.39 trillion yuan by the end of June 2025, surpassing the 34 trillion yuan mark [6] - Compared to the end of May, the public fund scale increased by over 650 billion yuan, reflecting a month-on-month growth of 1.93% [7] Group 4: Shenzhen Financial Data - As of the end of June 2025, the balance of various deposits in Shenzhen reached 14.16 trillion yuan, an increase of nearly 600 billion yuan since the beginning of the year [8] - The balance of loans in Shenzhen reached 9.85 trillion yuan, with an increase of over 350 billion yuan since the beginning of the year [8] Group 5: Gold Consumption - In the first half of 2025, China's gold consumption was 505.205 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 3.54%, with gold jewelry consumption down by 26% [10] - Gold bars and coins consumption increased by 23.69% year-on-year, totaling 264.242 tons [10] Group 6: Hong Kong Stock Market - In the first half of 2025, Hong Kong led the world in new stock financing, with a significant increase in equity financing driven by improved investor sentiment [11] - Public funds have significantly increased their holdings in Hong Kong stocks, focusing on sectors such as pharmaceuticals, banking, media, and technology [14] Group 7: Private Equity Insights - A prominent private equity figure highlighted a "dumbbell" market opportunity structure, focusing on both value dividend assets and emerging growth assets [16] - Looking ahead, three structural opportunities are identified: revaluation of quality Chinese assets, globalization of advantageous Chinese industries, and technological self-sufficiency [17]

Core Viewpoint - The equity market continues to show a rebound trend from the "9.24" rally, while the fixed income market experiences fluctuations in a historically low-risk interest rate environment. Overall, various fund indices have yielded positive results in the first half of 2025 [1]. Equity Market - In the second half of 2025, the equity market is expected to face downward pressure but is supported by a stable economic fundamental. The introduction of further reforms in the Sci-Tech Innovation Board by the CSRC in June is anticipated to maintain market activity, although external complexities and domestic demand pressures may lead to a primarily fluctuating stock market with an upward central tendency [5]. - Key sectors to focus on include dividends, pharmaceuticals, military industry, and AI applications [5]. Fund Manager Insights - Fund Manager Yang Jiannan highlights the promising outlook for the pharmaceutical sector driven by innovative drugs, with domestic companies increasingly entering global markets through licensing agreements [6]. - Fund Manager Chen Bo emphasizes the rapid development of new productive forces, including AI and high-end manufacturing, and the rising penetration of spiritual consumption products [7]. - Fund Manager Lu Yang notes that large-cap indices have rebounded to median valuations, and investment strategies will focus on bottom-up stock selection based on industry competition and company performance [8]. Fixed Income Market - The fixed income market is characterized by a pragmatic approach, with limited expectations for significant interest rate cuts in the second half of the year. The central bank is expected to prioritize the stability of the banking system's liabilities and optimize policies based on macro-prudential principles [9]. - The market is likely to see a focus on short-term rates and credit products, with convertible bonds standing out due to their dual advantages in a resilient stock market [9]. Fund Manager Insights - Fund Manager Cai Weifeng reports a mixed strategy in the bond market, achieving moderate net value growth despite a challenging environment [10]. - Fund Manager Chen Fangfei observes that the bond market experienced fluctuations, with the central bank's actions providing some support, while maintaining a high duration strategy [12]. - Fund Manager Xu Jia notes that external risks have influenced bond market trends, with a focus on internal economic conditions as the market stabilizes [14].