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关税风暴再起 华尔街押宝“新型避风港”——中国价值股
Zhi Tong Cai Jing· 2025-10-13 07:28
智通财经APP获悉,随着最新一轮中美贸易紧张局势显著升温,来自华尔街金融巨头的顶级策略师们表 示,除了黄金与美债这两大传统意义上的避险资产,全球投资者们还应将配置重点转向一种新型避险势 力——即中国股市中估值相对便宜且具防御性的价值股板块。 此外,从更加长期的股票投资视野来看,中国科技股仍将是值得投资者们最为青睐的市场板块之一。随 着押注特朗普政府关税立场将大幅缓和的"TACO交易"有可能时隔半年之久再度席卷全球,与人工智能 密切相关联的热门中国科技股或将是全球资金在中长期范围内的重点配置板块。 虽然中国股市的沪深300指数截至周一上午收盘下跌1.8%,该蓝筹指数的盘中跌幅一度高达2%,整个市 场跌多涨少,但价值股标的占主导的指数则普遍表现强劲,比如公用事业子指数仅跌0.2%。金融板块 指数则仅仅下滑0.8%,部分大型银行股表现更为稳健。中国建设银行股价在周一上午千股暴跌之际逆 势上涨,而中国工商银行截至上午收盘则仅下跌不到0.5%。 据了解,来自麦格理资本(Macquarie Capital Ltd.)的股票策略师们近日建议投资者们从动能策略所驱动的 赢家们中大举撤出,转向那些有望受益于中国消费刺激政策的公 ...
转债周策略20251012:临近强赎转债的交易策略
Minsheng Securities· 2025-10-12 05:42
转债周策略 20251012 临近强赎转债的交易策略 2025 年 10 月 12 日 ➢ 临近强赎转债的交易策略 投资者当前对股票市场预期较高,或更偏好持有股性转债博取更大的弹性。跟踪 和分析转债市场强赎执行率和相关的价格信号或可帮助投资者优化股性转债的 投资思路。 从近期的强赎执行率来看,三季度转债强赎执行率基本处于历史高位(25 年 1 月 样本数量较低参考意义不大),较多上市公司在强赎触发后希望快速促转股;发 行人较强的转股意愿同样可以从下修概率看出:三季度下修概率逐月提升,下修 会加大转债的稀释率,因此上市公司往往不轻易提议下修,近期下修概率上升或 说明上市公司希望在市场火热的窗口期快速促转股。 上市公司转股意愿和转债强赎概率的上升提示投资者对股性转债的交易节奏需 更为谨慎,当市场交易转债的强赎意愿时,转债溢价率可能提前回落。我们统计 了 6 月至今,各触发强赎转债样本的转股溢价率变动情况,归纳强赎触发前后的 转债投资者行为: (1) 随着强赎触发临近,转债溢价率出现一定承压,体现了投资者的谨慎情 绪,其中,提议强赎的转债溢价率下降幅度较为明显。 (2) 随着强赎触发的临近,不强赎样本的平均转股溢价 ...
A股四季度展望:震荡向上延续,科技成长仍是主线
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-10-11 07:17
展望2025年四季度,A股市场有望在政策支撑与流动性充裕的驱动下延续震荡上行趋势。多家券商分析 显示,在宏观政策坚持"稳中求进"总基调、内外资金持续流入的背景下,市场整体趋势依然积极。从风 格上看,四季度A股风格有望更加均衡,但科技成长板块仍被机构视为核心主线。 海外资金方面,美联储降息与人民币汇率回升正吸引全球资本流入中国。美联储降息对国内最大的影响 在于推升人民币汇率,进而引发全球资本流入。 市场趋势:震荡向上,慢牛延续 多家券商对四季度A股走势持相对积极态度,认为上涨行情尚未结束,市场有望继续挑战新平台。四季 度A股可能延续慢牛趋势,但波动率或加大,整体在宽幅震荡中逐级抬升。 市场向上的驱动主要来自三方面:盈利结构性回升,出口韧性、制造业投资改善及"金九银十"消费旺季 来临,推动A股盈利四季度继续筑顶。政策想象空间,10月中旬后市场将转向对2026年经济与政策的预 期,政策想象空间有望打开。流动性改善,居民加大权益资产配置、基金发行回暖及外资回流将继续为 市场提供增量资金。 资金动向:内外资金共同流入 四季度A市场流动性有望持续改善。国内方面,居民资产配置正向权益类资产转移。随着实际利率下 行,居民资产 ...
国泰海通晨报-20251010
GUOTAI HAITONG SECURITIES· 2025-10-10 07:22
Group 1: Financial Engineering Research - The stock, bond, and gold markets showed positive, negative, and positive signals respectively as of the end of September 2025 [2] - The macro environment forecast for Q4 indicates inflation [3] Group 2: Semiconductor Equipment Industry - The U.S. House of Representatives' special committee issued a report detailing sanctions against China's semiconductor industry, suggesting measures like export controls and technology blockades to maintain U.S. dominance [4][20] - The report indicates that five major semiconductor equipment companies (AMAT, ASML, KLA, LAM, TEL) account for 80%-85% of the global market share, with China expected to spend $38 billion on semiconductor equipment in 2024 [5][21] - Despite challenges, there is optimism for domestic semiconductor equipment companies to achieve breakthroughs in core technologies, with recommended stocks including North China Huachuang and Tuo Jing Technology [4][20] Group 3: Aviation Industry - The demand for air travel surged during the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holidays, with domestic passenger volume increasing by over 3% year-on-year [8][29] - The aviation industry is expected to see profitability growth in Q3 2025, driven by strong public and commercial demand [9][30] - If public demand continues to recover, the Chinese aviation industry could enter a "super cycle" by 2026, with recommendations to invest in high-quality airline networks [32] Group 4: Biomedicine Industry - Heartai Medical is a leader in congenital heart disease intervention devices, with a 32.4% year-on-year revenue growth in H1 2025 [13][14] - The company is advancing biodegradable occluders, which are gaining popularity due to their clinical advantages over traditional metal devices [14] - The market for heart valve interventions in China is expected to grow significantly, with a projected CAGR of 69.8% from 2021 to 2025 [14]
华虹半导体(01347):长期看好大华虹“一体化”战略布局
HTSC· 2025-10-09 12:07
证券研究报告 港股通 华虹半导体 (1347 HK) 长期看好大华虹"一体化"战略布局 2025 年 10 月 09 日│中国香港 半导体 我们上调华虹港股目标价到 119 港币(前值:53 港币),维持"买入"评 级。核心逻辑基于:1)需求端,国产 AI 芯片生态快速走向成熟正重构晶圆 代工格局,我们测算 2024 年中国设计公司先进工艺代工需求达 95 亿美元 (其中 70%由台积电承接)。随着华为昇腾系列等 AI 芯片迭代加速,对本 土代工需求有望迅速扩大;2)供给端,BIS 新规将限制范围扩至持股>50% 子公司,政策收紧或将加速供应链本土化。我们认为:1)大华虹"一体化" 战略布局下,包括华虹半导体在内的华虹集团技术能力有望提升;2)看好 九厂产能爬坡和华力微并入上市公司增厚收入及利润,募资完成后有望开启 下一轮扩产周期。 观点#1:长期看好大华虹"一体化"战略布局 华力微聚焦 65/55nm 及 40nm 制程代工工艺。华虹 8 月发布公告筹划以发 行股份及现金方式收购华力微 97.4988%股权,配套募集资金。该交易有利 于华虹丰富主业,加速产品迭代和开发进程,并且为华虹新增 3.8 万片/月 ...
港股主题基金年内最高已赚155%
Bei Jing Shang Bao· 2025-10-08 15:41
Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market experienced a pullback after reaching new highs, with the Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng Tech Index both declining. Despite this, there are still optimistic projections for future growth, particularly in the technology sector, which is expected to attract investor interest [1][2]. Market Performance - As of October 8, the Hang Seng Index fell by 0.48% to 26,829.46 points, while the Hang Seng Tech Index decreased by 0.55% to 6,514.19 points. The indices had previously reached new highs on October 2, with the Hang Seng Index peaking at 27,381.84 points [1][2]. - Year-to-date, the Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng Tech Index have increased by 33.75% and 45.79%, respectively [2]. Fund Performance - Several Hong Kong-themed funds have shown outstanding performance, with some achieving returns as high as 155% in the first three quarters of the year. Notable funds include the Huatai-PineBridge Hong Kong Advantage Selected Mixed Fund and the Bank of China Hong Kong Stock Connect Pharmaceutical Mixed Fund, which reported returns of 155.14% and 126.55%, respectively [3][2]. Sector Focus - The innovative pharmaceutical sector has gained significant attention, with the China Securities Index tracking the Hong Kong Stock Connect Innovative Pharmaceutical Index showing a year-to-date increase of 118.52% [3]. - The long-term outlook for the Hong Kong market remains positive, particularly in core areas such as the internet, innovative pharmaceuticals, and medical biotechnology, which are expected to attract capital inflows [3][4]. Investment Strategy - Future investment opportunities in Hong Kong-themed funds are anticipated, especially those focusing on new economy, technology, and innovation sectors. Investors are advised to prioritize reasonably valued assets with clear growth potential and consider a systematic investment approach [4].
国庆港股走势先扬后抑 主题基金年内最高已赚155% 止盈还是加仓?
Bei Jing Shang Bao· 2025-10-08 11:50
回调或由获利了结导致 10月8日,港股早盘低开。Wind数据显示,截至收盘,恒生指数下跌0.48%,报26829.46点。同期,恒 生科技指数下跌0.55%,报6514.19点。 10月8日,国庆假期最后一天,港股遭遇回调。具体来看,截至收盘,恒生指数、恒生科技指数双双下 跌0.48%、0.55%。若拉长时间至10月以来,港股市场则呈现先扬后抑态势,恒生指数突破年内新高后 连续回调。回顾年内,在港股走势表现亮眼的背景下,多只港股主题基金业绩突出,最高已赚155%。 有业内人士指出,未来港股仍有向上空间,科技板块仍将是市场关注的焦点,板块或呈现"波动上行、 龙头领跑"的格局。港股主题基金未来仍具备较好的投资机会,特别是聚焦新经济、科技和创新产业的 基金。 值得关注的是,在港股细分板块中,创新药行情的"狂飙"备受关注。仅从市场多只指数基金跟踪的中证 港股通创新药指数来看,据中证指数官网,截至9月30日,该指数年内涨幅已达118.52%。 这一背景下,多家公募旗下的港股创新药ETF或相关被动指数基金的前三季度收益也均翻倍,包括万家 中证港股通创新药ETF、景顺长城中证港股通创新药ETF、中欧中证港股通创新药指数A/ ...
国庆港股走势先扬后抑,主题基金年内最高已赚155%,止盈还是加仓?
Bei Jing Shang Bao· 2025-10-08 11:41
回调或由获利了结导致 10月8日,国庆假期最后一天,港股遭遇回调。具体来看,截至收盘,恒生指数、恒生科技指数双双下跌0.48%、0.55%。若 拉长时间至10月以来,港股市场则呈现先扬后抑态势,恒生指数突破年内新高后连续回调。回顾年内,在港股走势表现亮 眼的背景下,多只港股主题基金业绩突出,最高已赚155%。有业内人士指出,未来港股仍有向上空间,科技板块仍将是市 场关注的焦点,板块或呈现"波动上行、龙头领跑"的格局。港股主题基金未来仍具备较好的投资机会,特别是聚焦新经济、 科技和创新产业的基金。 就具体产品看,截至9月末,汇添富香港优势精选混合C类份额和A类份额的前三季度收益率分别达155.14%和155.09%,排 名全市场基金收益第三、四名。同期,中银港股通医药混合发起A/C的收益率也达126.55%、125.48%,排名居前。 值得关注的是,在港股细分板块中,创新药行情的"狂飙"备受关注。仅从市场多只指数基金跟踪的中证港股通创新药指数来 看,据中证指数官网,截至9月30日,该指数年内涨幅已达118.52%。 这一背景下,多家公募旗下的港股创新药ETF或相关被动指数基金的前三季度收益也均翻倍,包括万家中证 ...
越亚半导体创业板IPO获受理 拟募资12.24亿元
Zheng Quan Shi Bao Wang· 2025-10-02 05:48
Core Viewpoint - Yuya Semiconductor has initiated its IPO application on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange, aiming to raise 1.224 billion yuan for projects related to AI and operational funding [1] Company Overview - Yuya Semiconductor specializes in the research, production, and sales of advanced packaging materials and products, being one of the earliest domestic companies to produce IC packaging substrates [1] - The company's main products include IC packaging substrates and embedded packaging modules, with applications in RF front-end, high-performance computing, and power management [1][2] Financial Performance - The company's projected revenues from 2022 to the first half of 2025 are 1.667 billion yuan, 1.705 billion yuan, 1.796 billion yuan, and 811.73 million yuan, respectively [2] - Net profits for the same periods are expected to be 415 million yuan, 188 million yuan, 215 million yuan, and 91.47 million yuan [2] Industry Context - The global IC packaging substrate market is dominated by manufacturers from Taiwan, Japan, and South Korea, with the top ten companies holding over 80% market share [2] - Domestic companies, including Yuya Semiconductor, are experiencing growth in sales, but their global market share remains low, indicating significant development potential [2] Technological Position - Yuya Semiconductor's embedded packaging technology is considered advanced, with the company being one of the few globally to achieve mass production of embedded packaging products since 2017 [3] - The company aims to leverage opportunities in AI and communication technology revolutions, focusing on domestic substitution of semiconductor materials and enhancing the localization of mid-to-high-end IC packaging substrates [3]
集成电路ETF(159546)涨超3%,消费电子创新与算力需求成焦点
Mei Ri Jing Ji Xin Wen· 2025-09-30 08:46
Group 1 - The electronic industry is entering a peak season with the launch of innovative products such as AI smartphones, AI PCs, and AI glasses, leading to a potential recovery in demand due to seasonal factors and government subsidies [1] - The semiconductor sector is experiencing strong demand for computing infrastructure, benefiting advanced semiconductors, with high capital expenditure in cloud AI driving the demand for high-end GPUs, HBM storage, and advanced packaging [1] - The domestic substitution in the semiconductor industry is deepening, with sustained demand for computing power, indicating a high level of industry prosperity [1] Group 2 - The integrated circuit ETF (159546) tracks the integrated circuit index (932087), which selects listed companies involved in semiconductor design, manufacturing, packaging, testing, and related materials and equipment to reflect the overall performance of the integrated circuit industry [1] - The constituent stocks of the index are characterized by high technological content and growth potential, representing the development level and trends of China's integrated circuit industry, with a focus on electronic and information technology sectors [1] - Investors without stock accounts can consider the Guotai CSI All-Share Integrated Circuit ETF Initiator Link C (020227) and Guotai CSI All-Share Integrated Circuit ETF Initiator Link A (020226) [1]