监测周报 2025 年 9 月 22 日—2025 年 9 月 28 日 总第 359 期 2025 年第 36 期 隐性债务监管高压态势不变强调防范"处置风险的风险" 地方政府债与城投行业 5000 亿政策性金融工具落地， 有望拉动 2-5 万亿基建投资 鲁 璐 llu@ccxi.com.cn 中诚信国际研究院 院长 袁海霞 hxyuan@ccxi.com.cn 【地方政府债与城投行业监测周报 2025 年 第 35 期】河南专项债及专项贷款协力"清 欠"，第二批置换仅剩 2 省未发行完 2025- 09-28 【地方政府债与城投行业监测周报 2025 年 第 34 期】超六成融资平台实现退出，甘肃 出台全国首个省级 PPP 存量项目方案 2025- 09-18 【地方政府债与城投行业监测周报 2025 年 第 33 期】专项债会计处理新规强化资金监 管,山东力争 10 月底前完成专项债发行， 2025-09-11 ——地方政府债与城投行业监测周报 2025 年第 36 期 本期要点 ◼ 要闻点评 作者： 中诚信国际 研究院 【地方政府债与城投行业监测周报 2025 年 第 32 期】宁夏、江西加快推进"退 ...

风险提示：四川基建投资进度不及预期、大股东支持力度减弱、市场竞争加剧等。 Q2 新签订单继续提速。2025 年H1，公司新签订单金额达722.40 亿元，同比增长22.20%，其中Q1、Q2 新签订单同比增速分别为18.87%、25.44%。 分领域看，基建板块表现亮眼，上半年新签金额为617.40 亿元，同比增长25.88%，其中Q1、Q2 同比增 速分别为27.95%、23.93%。 盈利预测与投资评级：预计25-27 年公司实现营业收入分别为1092.95、1178.40、1237.32 亿元，分别同 比+2%、+8%、+5%，实现归母净利润分别为79.58、84.10、89.14 亿元，分别同比+10%、+6%、+6%， 当前股价对应25-27 年PE 分别为9/9/8X，四川基建景气度高，公司作为交通基建主力军，有望受益，同 时股息率较高，首次覆盖，给予"强烈推荐"评级。 公司公布25 年中报，报告期内实现收入、归母净利润、扣非归母净利润分别为435.36、27.80、27.20 亿 元，分别同比-4.91%、-13.00%、-13.72%。 四川战略定位升级，基建景气高于全国。2024 年，国务院 ...

炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ （来源：研报虎） 核心观点 美国《华尔街日报》9月26日消息称，特朗普政府正考虑要求芯片企业在美国本土生产的芯片数量，必 须与其从海外进口的芯片数量保持相当。若长期不能保持这一1:1的比例，有关企业将面临关税处罚。 据观察者网报道，该构想源于特朗普上月的表态。当时他表示，若科技企业增加在美国的投资，将可避 免高达100%的半导体关税。但报道分析称，与单纯扩大本土投资相比，实现国内与进口产能对等难度 更高，因为海外产品往往价格更低，而美国供应链调整困难，扩产也需要时间。一旦该想法落地，这一 举措将使美国现已非常复杂的关税体系变得更加复杂，这对部分正在扩大美国产能的企业来说可能是一 个利好，比如台积电、美光科技公司、晶圆代工厂格芯等，让他们在与客户谈判时拥有更大筹码。 省内施工加速，基本面有望加速改善 25H1四川路桥累计新增中标项目218个，金额约722亿元，同比增长22.20%，其中，基建订单增速高达 25.88%，但新开工项目受土地组卷报批、项目红线用地征拆等前期工作影响，未能实现大面积动工， 公司上半年收入有所承压。8月28日，抓项 ...

Investment Rating - The industry rating is maintained at "Outperform the Market" [6] Core Viewpoints - The construction index decreased by 1.67%, while the CSI 300 index increased by 0.74%, indicating that the construction sector underperformed the market by 2.42 percentage points. The cleanroom sector is expected to benefit from the rising production expectations in the U.S. and the upcoming third-quarter reports, which may exceed expectations [1][2][3] - The cleanroom sector is experiencing renewed benefits due to U.S. policies that may require semiconductor companies to match domestic production with imports, potentially benefiting companies like TSMC and Micron Technology [2][13] - The construction sector in Sichuan is seeing a significant increase in new bids, with a total of 218 new projects worth approximately 72.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 22.20% [3][23] - The cement shipment rate and asphalt operating rate have rebounded, indicating a positive outlook for the conversion of physical workloads in construction projects [4][24] Summary by Sections Market Overview - The construction index fell by 1.67% from September 22 to September 26, while the CSI 300 index rose by 0.74%, with only the architectural design sub-sector recording a positive return of 1.02% [5][32] Investment Recommendations - Focus on infrastructure investment opportunities in regions with high growth potential, such as Sichuan, Xinjiang, and Tibet, as well as sectors like hydropower, coal chemical, and nuclear power [1][36] - Emphasize the cleanroom sector, particularly companies like Baicheng Co., Shenghui Integration, and Yaxiang Integration, which are expected to benefit from the ongoing semiconductor industry developments [17][38] Key Projects and Orders - Sichuan Road and Bridge has seen a significant increase in new bids, with a focus on major provincial projects and government special bond projects to accelerate construction progress [3][23] - The cleanroom sector's order volume remains robust, with Baicheng Co. and Shenghui Integration reporting significant year-on-year growth in new orders [18][19] Sector Performance - The cleanroom sector is expected to maintain a high level of activity, driven by domestic demand for new semiconductor production facilities and the ongoing transition of the semiconductor industry [17][21] - The construction sector is experiencing a structural recovery, with a focus on major transportation infrastructure projects and regional opportunities in high-demand areas [36][39]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - In the fourth week of September, the peak-season effect on the demand side was gradually released, especially the investment-related indicators showed a month-on-month recovery. Inflation-wise, food prices stopped falling and rebounded. In terms of exports, both the CCFI and SCFI indices continued to decline month-on-month, while port freight volume remained high and volatile. Industrially, industrial electricity consumption decreased before the holiday, coal consumption entered the off-season, and the increase in the operating rate slowed down. In investment, the price increases of cement and rebar expanded, and the operating rate of asphalt accelerated, indicating that the infrastructure investment climate may be improving. In the real estate sector, the sales of new homes further soared while second-hand homes remained stable month-on-month. Overall, the "Golden September" was mediocre, and the year-on-year growth of new homes remained negative [2][32]. - For the bond market, production weakened marginally before the holiday, but the signs of investment stabilization became more prominent this week. The release of peak-season investment demand, the expectation of supply contraction, and the increase in costs may boost the prices of midstream investment products. Attention should be paid to the month-on-month improvement of PPI. Although the "Golden September" was mediocre in terms of real estate sales and investment indicators, demand began to improve in the last week of September. After the holiday, attention should be paid to its sustainability. Especially in October, the weather is conducive to construction, and policy-based financial tools are expected to be implemented, so the fourth quarter may be the period when the "broad credit" effect is realized. Short-term macro expectations may still disturb the bond market sentiment [2][32]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Inflation-related - Food prices stopped falling and rebounded. This week (September 22 - 26), the average wholesale price of pork in the country decreased by 0.94% month-on-month and continued to fall. Vegetable and fruit prices rose. The 200-index of agricultural product wholesale prices and the wholesale price index of basket products increased by 0.41% and 0.48% month-on-month, respectively, ending the decline [7]. Import and Export-related - The CCFI and SCFI indices continued to decline. This week, the CCFI index decreased by 2.93% month-on-month, and the SCFI decreased by 6.98% month-on-month, continuing the downward trend. The demand for China's export container transportation weakened, and the freight rates in the ocean shipping market continued to adjust. Among them, the demand on the North American route had not improved, and the spot booking prices continued to fall. The freight rates on the West and East Coast routes of the United States decreased by 10.8% and 6.7% month-on-month, respectively. In terms of port freight volume, from September 15 to September 21, the container throughput and cargo throughput of ports increased by 0.18% and 0.14% month-on-month, respectively, and the year-on-year increases were 12.95% and 18.76%, respectively, with a significant expansion of the increase, indicating that the export boom remained high [9]. - The BDI index continued to rise, but the increase narrowed. This week, the BDI and CDFI indices increased by 2.2% and 1.7% month-on-month, respectively, continuing the upward trend. Before the holiday, the coal cargo volume increased, and the typhoon affected the ship turnover, driving up the bulk shipping rental prices [9]. Industry-related - The price of thermal coal continued to rise. This week, the price of thermal coal (Q5500) at Qinhuangdao Port increased by 1.6% month-on-month (2.6% the previous week). In terms of demand, this week, the typhoon brought heavy rainfall to the South China coast, effectively alleviating the high temperature in the south. Coupled with the maintenance of power plant units, the civilian electricity load significantly decreased, and coal consumption entered the off-season. As the National Day holiday approached, downstream industrial enterprises would enter a centralized shutdown period, and industrial electricity demand would also weaken accordingly [13][15]. - The price of rebar increased slightly, and the inventory reduction accelerated. The spot price of rebar (HRB400 20mm) increased by 0.2% month-on-month (0.6% the previous week). The rebar inventory decreased by 2.8% month-on-month, with an accelerated reduction. This week, both the factory and social inventories of rebar decreased, and the apparent demand rebounded. According to Jinlian Chuang statistics, the rebar production has been continuously decreasing since September. In some regions, the profit decreased, and steel mills actively reduced production. The supply side shrank significantly, and the dual-energy control policy fermented in some regions, restricting the release of production capacity. The survey showed that as of the end of September, the terminal procurement volume in East China had only recovered to 92% of the same period last year, and it was still less than 90% in North and Northeast China. The "Golden September" was mediocre. Looking forward to October, as engineering projects enter the year-end sprint stage, attention should be paid to the demand performance of rebar [15]. - The increase in copper prices slightly expanded. This week, the average prices of Yangtze River Nonferrous Copper and LME Copper increased by 0.66% and 0.57% month-on-month, respectively, maintaining an upward trend. This week, the suspension of copper mines in Indonesia led to an expectation of supply contraction, the social inventory of Shanghai copper decreased, and the expectation of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in October and December increased, all of which boosted copper prices [17]. - The increase in glass futures narrowed. At the beginning of the week, the glass trading was mediocre. During the week, boosted by macro expectations, manufacturers generally raised their price expectations significantly, and the downstream procurement rhythm accelerated accordingly, resulting in a significant increase in the market price. However, the actual improvement in the glass demand side was limited [17]. Investment-related - The price increase of cement significantly expanded, supported by both cost and demand. This week, the weekly average of the cement price index increased by 2.0% month-on-month (0.01% the previous week). Recently, the cost of cement raw materials has increased, the demand in the traditional peak season has been gradually released, and environmental protection policies require some regions to implement staggered kiln shutdowns, jointly driving up the general increase in cement prices [21]. - In the fourth week of September, the sales volume of new homes increased at an accelerated pace month-on-month but was lower year-on-year. From last Friday to this Thursday (September 19 - 25), the transaction area of new homes in 30 cities was 1.793 million square meters, a month-on-month increase of 52.4% and a year-on-year decrease of 4.6%. New homes entered the end-of-month sprint stage and improved at an accelerated pace compared with the previous week, but the year-on-year performance was still low, and the overall performance was mediocre. The sales of second-hand homes decreased slightly. This week, the transaction area of second-hand homes in 17 cities was 1.973 million square meters, a month-on-month decrease of 0.5% and a year-on-year increase of 8.3% (61.6% last week), with the upward momentum weakening marginally [23]. Consumption-related - The retail sales of passenger cars turned positive year-on-year in the first three weeks of September. According to the Passenger Car Association, from September 1 to 21, the retail sales of passenger cars increased by 1% year-on-year and 8% month-on-month. The retail growth rate of passenger cars improved in the third week, but to some extent, it was supported by the low base caused by the Mid-Autumn Festival holiday in mid-September last year, and the market trend was generally stable [25]. - The increase in crude oil prices expanded. As of Friday, the prices of Brent crude oil and WTI crude oil increased by 5.2% and 4.9% month-on-month, respectively, turning from a decline to an increase. During the week, the uncertainty of Iraq's crude oil export supply and the month-on-month decrease in US commercial crude oil inventories supported the oil prices [25].

Core Viewpoint - The company, Tianjin Yinlong Prestressed Materials Co., Ltd., held a half-year performance briefing on September 25, 2025, to discuss its financial outlook and ongoing projects, indicating a positive business outlook supported by a robust order backlog and active participation in major infrastructure projects [1][2]. Group 1: Performance Outlook - The company has a positive outlook for 2025 and 2026, with a full order book and production capacity aligned with current demand [1][2]. - Key ongoing projects include water supply engineering in Xinjiang, bridge cable applications in major bridges, and participation in several high-speed rail construction projects [1][2]. Group 2: Order Volume and Market Strategy - The company is experiencing a historically high order volume, driven by active engagement in national infrastructure investment policies and collaboration with major construction enterprises [2][3]. - Strategies to boost order growth include deepening partnerships in traditional infrastructure sectors and increasing R&D investments to enhance product value [2][3]. Group 3: Revenue and Profit Growth - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 1.473 billion yuan, an increase of 8.85%, and a net profit of 172 million yuan, up 70.98%, marking a historical high for profit [6][7]. - The growth in profit is attributed to a solid core business in prestressed materials, successful market expansion, and the introduction of high-performance products [6][7]. Group 4: Business Segments and Innovations - The rail transportation concrete products segment has seen significant performance improvements, contributing to revenue through participation in key high-speed rail projects [7]. - The company is also advancing its renewable energy initiatives, focusing on wind power and solar energy applications, which have led to increased sales in these sectors [7][8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the construction and engineering industry [11]. Core Insights - The construction industry continues to experience a downward trend, with a focus on the government's fiscal efforts in the fourth quarter [2]. - The Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for the construction sector fell below 50, indicating contraction, primarily due to a decrease in new orders and weakened market demand [6][18]. - Fixed asset investment (FAI) has shown a continued decline, influenced by a significant drop in real estate and infrastructure investments [7][21]. Summary by Sections Investment & Orders - The construction PMI for August was reported at 49.1%, down 1.5 percentage points year-on-year and month-on-month, with the new orders index at 40.6%, reflecting a decrease of 2.9 percentage points year-on-year and 2.1 percentage points month-on-month [6][18]. - Fixed asset investment in August was 3.8 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 7.1%, with manufacturing investment also declining by 1.8% [22][36]. - Infrastructure investment for August was 1.5 trillion yuan, down 5.8% year-on-year, with a cumulative investment of 12 trillion yuan for the first eight months, reflecting a 2.0% increase year-on-year [23][36]. Physical Workload - August saw a seasonal slowdown in construction activities due to high temperatures, with cement production declining by 6.2% year-on-year [8][50]. - The construction workload is expected to rebound in September as the industry enters its peak season [8][50]. Project Funding - As of September 16, the funding availability rate for construction sites was 59.39%, with non-residential projects at 61.21% and residential projects at 50.58% [58]. - In August, new special bonds issued exceeded 485.6 billion yuan, with a total issuance progress of 80% by September 19 [60].

Investment Rating - Investment rating: Positive (maintained) [4] Core Viewpoints - Infrastructure investment remains resilient, with electricity, heat, gas, and water sectors leading the growth. From January to August 2025, national infrastructure investment continued to show moderate growth, with narrow infrastructure (excluding electricity) reaching 11.58 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.0%. Broad infrastructure totaled 15.76 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 5.42%, significantly higher than the narrow measure, mainly supported by high-growth sectors like electricity. In August, narrow infrastructure saw a year-on-year decline of 5.85%, while broad infrastructure declined by 6.42%, indicating a slowdown in overall momentum. [5][10] Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Viewpoints - Infrastructure investment shows resilience, with electricity, heat, gas, and water sectors leading the growth. [10] - Future outlook suggests that despite a phase of slowdown in infrastructure investment, key projects like the New Tibet Railway and the lower reaches of the Yarlung Tsangpo River hydropower project are expected to support overall investment. [10] 2. Weekly Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 1.30%, while the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 1.14%, and the ChiNext Index increased by 2.34%. The Shenwan Construction Decoration Index rose by 0.44%, with sub-sectors like housing construction and engineering consulting services showing notable gains. [14] - Top-performing stocks included Longjian Road & Bridge (+31.70%), Sentai Holdings (+29.14%), and Jiankang Institute (+27.40%). [14] 3. Infrastructure Data Tracking - Special bonds issued this week totaled 143.916 billion yuan, with a cumulative issuance of 6.2697 trillion yuan, up 45.02% year-on-year. [21] - Urban investment bonds issued this week amounted to 89.345 billion yuan, with a net financing amount of 8.891 billion yuan, leading to a cumulative net financing deficit of 373.946 billion yuan. [21] 4. Company Dynamics - Notable contract announcements include Mongolian Grass Ecological's contract worth 225 million yuan for a project in Inner Mongolia, and China Power Construction's new contracts totaling 800.797 billion yuan from January to August 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 4.71%. [29][30]

Core Viewpoint - Vietnam is launching an ambitious infrastructure investment plan with a total investment of 1,280 trillion VND (approximately 50 billion USD) for 250 large-scale projects, marking the beginning of a 10 to 20-year economic development and modernization phase [1][6]. Infrastructure Challenges - Vietnam's road quality ranks 109th globally, with only 60% of national roads being asphalted and many roads remaining in poor condition [2]. - The railway system largely consists of narrow-gauge tracks from the colonial era, limiting capacity and speed, with average speeds around 50 km/h [2]. - Power supply issues have led to nationwide blackouts, causing significant losses for major companies, with a reported loss of 1.4 billion USD for firms like Foxconn and Samsung [3]. Government Initiatives - The Vietnamese government is focusing on infrastructure to address economic challenges, with public investment spending increasing by 40% year-on-year in the first half of the year [6]. - As of June 30, public investment reached 268.1 trillion VND (approximately 10.3 billion USD), accounting for 32.5% of the approved budget for 2025 [6]. Investment Landscape - The government is funding 129 of the 250 projects, with a total investment of approximately 478 trillion VND (about 18 billion USD), while 121 projects are supported by private and foreign capital, totaling around 30.5 billion USD [7]. - Private and foreign investments account for 63% of the total investment in these projects [7]. Market Opportunities for Chinese Enterprises - Chinese companies are increasingly involved in Vietnam's infrastructure projects, with significant contracts awarded for metro and highway construction [10][11]. - The shift towards smaller, more manageable projects is noted as a strategy to mitigate risks associated with large-scale investments [11]. Strategic Considerations - Experts suggest that Chinese enterprises should form strategic alliances to avoid internal competition and price wars in the crowded Vietnamese market [11]. - Identifying new opportunities in sectors like renewable energy, electricity, and telecommunications is recommended, as traditional infrastructure sectors may face protectionist barriers [11].

Group 1 - The "14th Five-Year Plan" period (2021-2025) has shown strong resilience in China's macroeconomic performance despite facing complex internal and external challenges, with nominal GDP expected to exceed 140 trillion yuan by the end of this period, an increase of over 35 trillion yuan compared to the end of the "13th Five-Year Plan" [3][4][5] - During the first four years of the "14th Five-Year Plan," China's GDP experienced an average annual real growth rate of 5.5% and a nominal growth rate of 6.9%, with the nominal GDP growth rate projected to be around 4.5% for the entire year of 2025 [3][5][6] - The economic growth achievements during the "14th Five-Year Plan" have laid a solid material foundation for modernizing the economy and have provided strong support for stabilizing employment and improving people's livelihoods [4][5] Group 2 - The "15th Five-Year Plan" period (2026-2030) is crucial for achieving the strategic vision of reaching a per capita GDP level of a moderately developed country by 2035, with a minimum nominal GDP average growth rate requirement of 5% [9][10][14] - The core guiding principle for economic growth in the "15th Five-Year Plan" is to achieve a per capita GDP of 27,000 USD by 2035, reflecting a shift from focusing on total GDP growth to per capita income improvement [10][12][14] - To meet the 2035 target, the nominal GDP growth rate during the "15th Five-Year Plan" should ideally be around 6%, with a minimum requirement of 5%, depending on factors such as actual GDP growth, price levels, and exchange rate fluctuations [14][16][18] Group 3 - The "15th Five-Year Plan" should consider setting clear economic growth targets to address demand insufficiency and promote supply-demand balance, which is essential for achieving full employment and improving living standards [19][20] - A comprehensive target system around nominal GDP growth should be established, including a core target of 5% nominal GDP growth and 4.8% real GDP growth, alongside specific goals for consumption and investment growth [21][22][23] - Policies should focus on expanding domestic demand, particularly through boosting consumption and stabilizing infrastructure investment, to ensure necessary growth rates are met [23][25][26]