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2025年7月财政数据点评:7月财政收入端有所改善,支出端继续发力
Dong Fang Jin Cheng· 2025-08-25 05:52
东方金诚宏观研究 7 月财政收入端有所改善,支出端继续发力 —— 2025 年 7 月财政数据点评 分析师:瞿瑞 冯琳 事件:财政部公布的数据显示,2025 年 7 月,全国一般公共预算收入同比增长 2.7%, 6 月为-0.3%;7 月全国一般公共预算支出同比增长 3.0%,6 月为 0.4%;1-7 月全国政府性 基金收入累计同比下降 0.7%,1-6 月为-2.4%;1-7 月全国政府性基金支出累计同比增长 31.7%,1-6 月为 30.0%。 主要观点:7 月广义财政收入同比增速从上月的 2.8%继续加快至 3.6%,广义财政支 出同比增速则较上月回落 5.5 个百分点至 12.1%,但处于两位数增长,显示收入端延续改 善,支出端则体现财政发力特征。往后看,下半年财政将继续发力支撑支出端,尤其是在 基建投资类。一方面,在上半年用于隐债置换的地方政府再融资专项债集中发行后,下半 年用于项目建设的地方政府新增专项债将大规模发行;另一方面,预计下半年有可能上调 支持"两重"投资的超长期特别国债发行规模,用于项目建设的地方政府新增专项债和国 企稳增长扩投资专项债发行额度也可能上调。另外,由于今年上半年财政前 ...
旺季基建或启动,特种电子布景气延续
HTSC· 2025-08-25 04:19
证券研究报告 工业/基础材料 本周观点:旺季基建或启动,特种电子布延续高景气 上周国务院全体会议强调努力完成全年经济社会发展目标任务,要求"加力 扩大有效投资,发挥重大工程引领带动作用",叠加上周 PPP 存量项目规 范意见落地,新型政策性金融工具有望出台等,我们认为基建端有望旺季发 力。中材科技公布中报,特种电子布量价两旺,叠加上周玻纤产业论坛召开, 我们预计低膨胀布和石英纤维布有望延续高景气。上周工信部再次召开光伏 产业会议,我们认为光伏产业反内卷政策框架或初步建立,近期光伏玻璃已 开始大幅去库,2.0mm 光伏玻璃价格环比继续小幅提升,但盈利能力仍然 承压。短期继续重点推荐中报同比大幅增长的水泥玻纤板块,以及估值仍处 于低位的大建筑板块,重点推荐亚翔集成、中国中冶、中材国际、鸿路钢构、 三联虹普、三棵树、中材科技、华新水泥、上峰水泥、海螺创业。 上周细分行业回顾 截至 8.22,上周全国水泥价格周环比+0.7%;水泥出货率 45.7%,周环比/ 同比-0.1pct/-2.7pct。上周国内浮法玻璃均价 64 元/重量箱,周环比/同比 -0.6%/-14.6%,样本企业库存 5636 万重箱,周环比+0. ...
规范PPP存量项目意见出台,多条高铁纳入国家储备开工项目计划
Guotou Securities· 2025-08-25 01:02
本周,财政部印发《关于规范政府和社会资本合作存量项目建设和运 营的指导意见》,规范政府和社会资本合作(PPP)存量项目建设和 运营,提升项目运行质量效益。主要内容包括:1)保障在建项目顺 利建设,优先实施具有一定收益的项目,持续保障项目建成完工,接 近完工的项目,抓紧推进建设、及时验收决算、及早投入运营;同时, 金融机构要依法合规积极支持在建项目融资。2)推动已运营项目平 稳运行,依法履约按效付费,不得以拖延竣工验收时间、延迟绩效评 价等方式拖欠付费;加强项目运营监管;推动实现降本增效,提高公 共服务供给效率;规范做好项目移交;3)强化政策支持,加大财政 支持力度,对符合条件的在建项目,地方政府可统筹运用一般债券、 专项债券等资金,用于 PPP 存量项目建设成本中的政府支出;相关部 门和地方政府要结合 PPP 存量项目实际和经济社会发展需要,将支 持 PPP 存量项目建设和运营纳入增量政策中统筹实施。 本周投资建议: 多数建筑央国企拥有 PPP 项目,短期来看,加速在建项目完工验收或 推动收入确认;长期来看,政府强制履约付费将极大改善企业应收账 款质量和经营活动现金流,而降本增效和融资优化有助于企业盈利改 善 ...
大摩邢自强最新研判:出口消费承压下市场仍活跃,杠杆可控 + 资金入市成核心底气
Zhi Tong Cai Jing· 2025-08-22 16:57
2025 年 8 月 21 日,摩根士丹利邢自强团队发布最新研究报告《中国情绪追踪:亚太增长放缓,政策持 续发力,市场保持活跃》。报告指出,8 月中国经济增长虽呈放缓态势,但充裕的流动性与 "稳节奏、 偏积极" 的政策发力,仍支撑市场情绪维持乐观。当前市场杠杆水平尚属合理,暂未出现触发股市即时 限制的明显因素,后续需重点关注资金流动、杠杆变化及市场叙事的潜在转向。 一、经济增长观察:三季度同比或滑向4.5% 从 8 月经济数据表现来看,多项指标显示增长动能有所减弱,摩根士丹利预测三季度经济同比增速或降 至 - 4.5%,具体呈现以下特征: 1. 出口增速回落,前置效应逐步回调 受高基数效应与前期出口 "前置" 需求回调影响,8 月中国出口同比增速预计从 7 月的 7.2% 放缓至 5%-6%。这一趋势可从 "中国至美集装箱船数量" 得到印证 ——8 月以来,驶往美国的集装箱船数量明 显减少,直观反映出前期出口前置后的需求回落(见插图 1)。 3. 基建投资小幅回升,但可持续性存疑 受益于天气干扰减少及前期政府债券前置发行资金的拨付,8 月基建资本支出(capex)同比或小幅回 升,水泥周发货量数据也印证了基建 ...
2025年7月财政数据点评:财政预算收支增速均加快
EBSCN· 2025-08-20 06:52
Revenue and Expenditure Trends - In the first seven months of 2025, the cumulative year-on-year growth rate of general public budget revenue was +0.1%, up from -0.3% in the previous period[1] - General public budget expenditure maintained a year-on-year growth rate of +3.4%, unchanged from the previous period[1] - Government fund budget revenue showed a cumulative year-on-year decline of -0.7%, improving from -2.4% previously[1] - Government fund budget expenditure increased significantly by +31.7%, compared to +30.0% in the previous period[1] Tax Revenue Insights - In July, tax revenue increased by +5.0% year-on-year, marking an improvement for two consecutive months[3] - The four major tax categories showed varied performance, with domestic consumption tax growing by +5.38% and corporate income tax rising by +6.36%[4] - Personal income tax saw a notable increase of +13.92%, the highest among major tax categories, driven by low base effects and stock market gains[5] Government Fund Performance - Government fund budget revenue growth slowed to +8.9% in July, down from +20.8% the previous month, with land use rights revenue increasing by +7.2%[22] - Government fund budget expenditure growth also decreased to +42.4% from +79.2% in the previous month, with land-related expenditures declining by -4.1%[22] Infrastructure Investment and Economic Outlook - Infrastructure-related expenditure showed a recovery with a year-on-year growth rate of -3.81%, improving by 4.99 percentage points from the previous month[14] - The cumulative completion rate for general public budget revenue in the first seven months was 58.2%, lower than the average of the past five years[14] - The government is expected to have room for further fiscal policy adjustments to stabilize the domestic economy in the second half of the year[34]
银龙股份(603969):2025H1维持业绩高增态势,盈利能力大幅提升
Guotou Securities· 2025-08-20 04:01
Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Buy-A" for the company [4]. Core Views - The company has demonstrated a strong growth trajectory in the first half of 2025, with a year-on-year increase in revenue of 8.85% to 1.473 billion yuan and a significant rise in net profit of 70.98% to 172 million yuan [1][2]. - The business structure has been optimized, leading to improved profitability across its segments, particularly in high-margin products [2][9]. - The company is positioned as a leading player in the pre-stressed steel materials and high-speed rail slab sectors, with a robust product matrix and a focus on high-value products [9]. Revenue and Profitability - In H1 2025, the pre-stressed materials segment generated revenue of 1.158 billion yuan, accounting for 78.58% of total revenue, while the concrete products segment contributed 213 million yuan, representing 14.45% [2]. - The gross margin for the company improved to 24.26%, up 8.14 percentage points year-on-year, driven by enhanced margins in both pre-stressed materials and concrete products [3]. - The net profit margin for the pre-stressed materials segment was 11.23%, while the concrete products segment achieved a remarkable net profit margin of 20.19% [3]. Cash Flow and Financial Health - The operating cash flow showed significant improvement in Q2 2025, with a net inflow of 106 million yuan, compared to a net outflow of 77.5 million yuan in Q2 2024 [8]. - As of H1 2025, accounts receivable amounted to 2.245 billion yuan, with over 80% being due within one year, indicating a healthy cash collection cycle [8]. Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 3.519 billion yuan, 4.022 billion yuan, and 4.545 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 15.2%, 14.3%, and 13.0% [11]. - Net profit forecasts for the same period are 357 million yuan, 472 million yuan, and 567 million yuan, reflecting growth rates of 51.0%, 31.9%, and 20.3% [11]. - The report sets a 12-month target price of 12.14 yuan, based on a projected PE ratio of 22 times for 2026 [9].
经济景气水平回升 财政收入增速转正!前7个月证券交易印花税同比增长62.5%
Zheng Quan Shi Bao· 2025-08-20 00:13
Group 1 - In July, national general public budget revenue showed a significant recovery, with a year-on-year growth of 2.6%, marking the highest monthly growth rate of the year [1] - For the first seven months, the total general public budget revenue reached 135,839 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 0.1%, indicating a positive turnaround compared to the previous period [1] - Tax revenue in July increased by 5%, the highest growth rate of the year, contributing to a significant narrowing of the revenue decline in the first seven months [2] Group 2 - The corporate income tax decreased by 0.4% in the first seven months, but the decline was significantly narrowed by 1.5 percentage points compared to the first half of the year, which was a key factor in the growth of tax revenue in July [2] - The growth in tax revenue in July was supported by a narrowing decline in the Producer Price Index (PPI), highlighting the strong correlation between price factors and tax revenue [2] - The securities transaction stamp duty saw a remarkable year-on-year growth of 62.5% in the first seven months, reflecting a recovery in market confidence [2] Group 3 - The equipment manufacturing and modern service industries showed strong tax revenue performance, with specific sectors like railway, shipbuilding, and aerospace equipment seeing tax revenue growth of 33% [3] - General public budget expenditure for the first seven months reached 160,737 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 3.4%, maintaining a focus on social welfare spending [3] - Expenditure in social security and employment grew by 9.8%, indicating a continued emphasis on improving public welfare [3] Group 4 - Local government special bonds and other financial instruments contributed to a government fund budget expenditure growth of 31.7% in the first seven months, amounting to 2.89 trillion yuan [4] - With the reduction of disruptions from extreme weather, infrastructure investment growth is expected to rebound in the second half of the year due to sufficient project and funding support [4]
经济景气水平回升 财政收入增速转正
Zheng Quan Shi Bao· 2025-08-19 18:57
Group 1 - In July, national general public budget revenue showed a significant recovery, with a year-on-year growth of 2.6%, marking the highest monthly growth rate of the year [1] - For the first seven months, national general public budget revenue reached 135,839 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 0.1%, indicating a positive turnaround compared to the first half of the year [1] - Tax revenue in July increased by 5%, the highest this year, contributing to a significant narrowing of the revenue decline in the first seven months [2] Group 2 - The corporate income tax decreased by 0.4% in the first seven months, but the decline was significantly reduced by 1.5 percentage points compared to the first half, contributing to the growth of tax revenue in July [2] - The securities transaction stamp tax saw a year-on-year increase of 62.5%, reflecting a recovery in market confidence [2] Group 3 - The equipment manufacturing and modern service industries showed strong tax revenue performance, with specific sectors like railway, shipbuilding, and aerospace equipment seeing tax revenue growth of 33% [3] - General public budget expenditure for the first seven months reached 160,737 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 3.4%, maintaining a focus on social welfare spending [3] Group 4 - Local government special bonds and other financial instruments contributed to a government fund budget expenditure growth of 31.7%, with 2.89 trillion yuan spent in the first seven months [4] - Infrastructure investment growth is expected to rebound in the second half of the year due to sufficient project and funding support [4]
【广发宏观吴棋滢】税收收入增速进一步有所好转
郭磊宏观茶座· 2025-08-19 15:43
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recovery of tax revenue in July, highlighting a 4% year-on-year increase, while non-tax revenue continues to decline, indicating a reduced reliance on non-tax income by the government [1][5]. Revenue Analysis - In the first seven months, general public budget revenue increased by 0.1% year-on-year, meeting the initial budget target, with tax revenue showing a cumulative decline of 0.3%, leaving room for improvement towards the annual target of 3.7% [1][5]. - The four major tax categories performed strongly, with personal income tax rising by 13.9% year-on-year, significantly exceeding seasonal levels, attributed to factors such as a strong equity market and improved tax collection management [10][11]. - Corporate income tax showed a cumulative decline of 0.4% year-on-year, reflecting low corporate profitability amid low PPI levels, although July saw a monthly increase of 6.4% [10][11]. - Domestic consumption tax increased by 5.4% year-on-year, influenced by previous adjustments in consumption tax policies for automobiles [10][11]. - Stamp duty on securities transactions surged by 58% year-on-year in July, marking a significant increase [10][11]. Expenditure Analysis - In July, general public budget expenditure rose by 3.0% year-on-year, driven primarily by social security, health care, and debt servicing, while infrastructure spending declined by 3.6% [2][12]. - Cumulative expenditure from January to July increased by 3.4% year-on-year, slightly below the budget target of 4.4%, indicating a slower spending pace compared to the previous year [2][12]. - The increase in fiscal deposits is attributed to the front-loaded issuance of government bonds, which has allowed for smoother expenditure patterns and potential recovery in fiscal spending growth in the coming months [2][12]. Land Revenue and Market Trends - Land transfer revenue in July grew by 7.2% year-on-year, although cumulative growth for the year narrowed to -4.6% [3][18]. - High-frequency data indicates a 31.5% year-on-year decline in land transfer revenue for residential land in 300 cities in the first half of August, primarily influenced by first- and second-tier cities [3][18]. - The government is expected to implement strong measures to stabilize the real estate market, which may impact future fiscal policies and land revenue [3][18]. Infrastructure Investment Insights - Weak infrastructure investment in June and July is identified as a macroeconomic characteristic, potentially leading to looser narrow liquidity conditions [4][21]. - The government has emphasized the need to accelerate effective investment and the disbursement of new policy financial tools, which is likely to support construction activity in the latter half of the year [4][21].
7月数据点评:地产及基建投资增速双降,静待政策加码
Great Wall Securities· 2025-08-19 09:37
证券研究报告 | 行业月报 2025 年 08 月 19 日 建材 7 月数据点评:地产及基建投资增速双降,静待政策加码 水泥玻璃产量:水泥、玻璃产量累计同比达-4.5%、-5.0%,玻璃降幅略有 收窄。2025年 1-7月,全国水泥产量累计同比为-4.5%,7月当月同比为-5.6%, 降幅较 6 月当月基本相当。2025 年 1-7 月,全国玻璃产量累计同比为-5.0%, 7 月当月同比为-3.4%,较 6 月降幅继续收窄。 下游投资情况:竣工面积降幅明显扩大,基建投资由正转负。2025 年 7 月商 品房销售、施工、新开工、竣工面积同比变动-8.4%、-16.4%、-15.2%、-29.5%, 6 月同比值分别为-6.5%、+4.8%、-9.5%、-2.2%,降幅均有扩大,竣工面 积降幅扩大尤为明显。2025 年 7 月广义库存去化周期 5.33 年,较上月小幅 增加。2025 年 7 月房地产投资、基建投资同比-17.1%(6 月为-12.4%)、-1.9% (6 月为 5.3%),房地产投资降幅扩大,基建投资增速由正转负。 风险提示:原材料价格上涨或超预期;下游需求或低于预期;环保政策或出 现反复;行 ...