【冠通期货研究报告】 热卷日报：两会限产提供支撑，后续关注政策出台及需求复苏 发布日期：2026 年 3 月 3 日 一、市场行情回顾 1，期货价格：热卷期货主力合约周二持仓量减仓 7712 手，成交量 369765 手，相比上一交易日缩量，日内最低价 3202 元，最高价 3227 元，日均线来看短 期回落至 5 日均线附近，中期 30 日均线，60 日均线压力依然存在，收于 3219 元/吨，下跌 1 元，跌幅 0.03%。 2，现货价格：主流地区上海热卷价格报 3240 元/吨。相比上一交易日维稳。 3，基差：期现基差 21 元。 二、基本面数据 ■供应端：产量：同比收缩，环比基本持平，当期产量 309.61 万吨，同比 -13.52 万吨，环比-0.20 万吨。 •从趋势图看，2026 年产量略低于 2023-2025 年同期，说明钢厂在春节前后维持生产，但主动收缩了产能，以应对需求走弱。 ■需求端：同比大幅下滑，环比小幅回落，当期表需 268.37 万吨，同比-53.96 万吨，环比-1.30 万吨。 同比大幅下滑主要是春节前后制造业停工、终端采购 停滞的季节性影响；环比小幅回落则反映出今年节后需求 ...

证券研究报告 | 2026年03月02日 从价格（结构）的确定性看资产变化 —2026年一季度经济与市场展望 专题研究·宏观 固收 证券分析师：董德志 021-60933158 dongdz@guosen.com.cn S0980513100001 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明及其项下所有内容 目录 股、债构成因子的拆分 01 02 价格指数变化的确定性是什么？ 03 支撑价格变化的因素 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明及其项下所有内容 长期利率的拆解 资料来源：wind，国信证券经济研究所绘制 资料来源：国信证券经济研究所绘制 图3：期限溢价受影响因素多元化 资料来源：wind，国信证券经济研究所绘制 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明及其项下所有内容 图1：长期利率的拆分 ⚫ 长期利率的拆分； 图2：真实利率更多是实际经济运行结果，而非原因 长期利率的构成因子现状：期限溢价回归历史正常区域下限 图5：10Y-7D不同利差水平下的情形 图4：近一年决定长期利率的主要因子是期限溢价 资料来源：wind，国信证券经济研究所绘制 资料来源：国信证券经济研究所绘制 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明及其项下所有内容 ⚫ 最近一年有 ...

一、市场行情回顾 1，期货价格：热卷期货主力合约周一持仓量减仓 32410 手，成交量 404093 手，相比上一交易日放量，日内最低价 3206 元，最高价 3239 元，日均线来看短 期回落至 5 日均线，中期 30 日均线，60 日均线压力依然存在，收于 3219 元/吨， 上涨 11 元，涨幅 0.34%。 【冠通期货研究报告】 热卷日报：两会限产提供支撑，后续关注政策出台及需求复苏 发布日期：2026 年 3 月 2 日 2，现货价格：主流地区上海热卷价格报 3240 元/吨。相比上一交易日维稳。 3，基差：期现基差 21 元。 二、基本面数据 ■供应端：产量：同比收缩，环比基本持平，当期产量 309.61 万吨，同比 -13.52 万吨，环比-0.20 万吨。 •从趋势图看，2026 年产量略低于 2023-2025 年同期，说明钢厂在春节前后维持生产，但主动收缩了产能，以应对需求走弱。 ■需求端：同比大幅下滑，环比小幅回落，当期表需 268.37 万吨，同比-53.96 万吨，环比-1.30 万吨。 同比大幅下滑主要是春节前后制造业停工、终端采购 停滞的季节性影响；环比小幅回落则反映出今年节后需 ...

【冠通期货研究报告】 1，期货价格：热卷期货主力合约周五持仓量减仓 791 手，成交量 277047 手，相比上一交易日缩量，日内最低价 3197 元，最高价 3220 元，日均线来看短 期回落至 5 日均线，中期 30 日均线，60 日均线压力依然存在，收于 3215 元/吨， 下跌 8 元，跌幅 0.25%。 热卷日报：震荡整理 2，现货价格：主流地区上海热卷价格报 3230 元/吨。相比上一交易日维稳。 发布日期：2026 年 2 月 27 日 3，基差：期现基差 15 元。 一、市场行情回顾 二、基本面数据 三、市场驱动因素分析 ■偏多因素：供给收缩，需求韧性，政策托底（"十五五"规划、基建投资）， ■偏空因素：需求兑现慢，原料端拖累，库存累积压制价格，宏观扰动增加 ■供应端：产量：同比收缩，环比基本持平，当期产量 309.61 万吨，同比 -13.52 万吨，环比-0.20 万吨。 •从趋势图看，2026 年产量略低于 2023-2025 年同期，说明钢厂在春节前后维持生产，但主动收缩了产能，以应对需求走弱。 ■需求端：同比大幅下滑，环比小幅回落，当期表需 268.37 万吨，同比-53.96 万吨 ...

随着多地重大项目集中开工，水泥行业迎来2026年的第一缕暖意。从东北地区率先出现涨价信号，到海 螺水泥、金隅集团等龙头企业相继动员部署、加速复工，水泥行业正以"起步即冲刺"的姿态，全力跑好 全年"第一棒"。"基建方面，我们判断2026年投资将回正，水泥需求将有改善。"中国水泥网水泥大数据 研究院分析师李坤明在接受采访时表示，但从全年来看，预计水泥价格反弹空间有限，均价仍将下移， 行业利润仍处于低位水平。（上证报） ...

◎记者 张问之 随着多地重大项目集中开工，水泥行业迎来2026年的第一缕暖意。从东北地区率先出现涨价信号，到海 螺水泥、金隅集团等龙头企业相继动员部署、加速复工，水泥行业正以"起步即冲刺"的姿态，全力跑好 全年"第一棒"。 春节假期刚过，水泥行业龙头企业迅速从"假日模式"切换至"工作模式"，以"干字当头"的奋进姿态，全 力跑好全年"第一棒"。 在海螺集团多个生产基地，机器运转声此起彼伏，生产线高速运转；在销售物流一线，车辆来回穿梭， 首批产品整装待发，跑出复工复产的"加速度"。抢时间、抓进度，随着"第一车"优质水泥顺利出 厂、"第一船"熟料整装发运，海螺水泥以实实在在的"开门红"，开启全年高质量发展新局。 春节过后，多地重大项目集中开工，有望为水泥需求提供有力支撑。"预计春节后全省水泥市场销售均 价将偏强运行，但上行幅度将在很大程度上取决于项目的实际落实情况。"湖南省商务厅研判认为，鉴 于2026年湖南省交通基建投资仍有较大潜力，为"十五五"实现良好开局提供项目支撑，春节后水泥市场 预期向好。 从机构预测来看，2026年基建投资有望保持温和增长。中金公司研报预计，2026年基建投资增速为 4.5%。平安证券首 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The hot-rolled coil futures market is in a game stage of "weak reality, strong expectation". The fundamentals are dominated by inventory accumulation and weak demand, putting short-term pressure on prices. However, the improvement in export profits, the resilience of steel mill production, and policy expectations form the bottom support, limiting the downside space. It is suggested to be cautiously bearish, and in the medium term, still pay attention to the pressure near the 30-day and 60-day moving averages [6]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Market行情回顾 - Futures price: The main contract of hot-rolled coil futures reduced its positions by 8,357 lots on Thursday, with a trading volume of 319,835 lots, a contraction compared to the previous trading day. The intraday low was 3,205 yuan, the high was 3,241 yuan. In terms of the daily average line, the short-term fell back to the 5-day moving average, and the pressure of the 30-day and 60-day moving averages in the medium term still exists. It closed at 3,220 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan, a gain of 0.16% [1]. - Spot price: The price of hot-rolled coils in the mainstream Shanghai area was reported at 3,250 yuan/ton, remaining stable compared to the previous trading day [2]. - Basis: The basis between the spot and futures prices was 30 yuan [3]. Fundamental Data - Supply side: The output contracted year-on-year and was basically flat month-on-month. The current output was 3.0961 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 0.1352 million tons and a month-on-month decrease of 0.002 million tons. In 2026, the output was slightly lower than the same period from 2023 - 2025, indicating that steel mills maintained production around the Spring Festival but actively reduced production capacity to cope with weakening demand [4]. - Demand side: The demand decreased significantly year-on-year and slightly month-on-month. The current apparent demand was 2.6837 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 0.5396 million tons and a month-on-month decrease of 0.013 million tons. The significant year-on-year decline was mainly due to the seasonal impact of manufacturing shutdowns and stagnant terminal purchases around the Spring Festival. The slight month-on-month decline reflected that the post-festival demand recovery rhythm this year was weaker than in previous years [4]. - Inventory side: The social inventory increased significantly, and the total inventory was still lower year-on-year. The factory inventory was 947,800 tons, a month-on-month increase of 14,000 tons and a year-on-year increase of 33,400 tons. With basically flat output and weakening demand, the factory inventory accumulated slightly. The social inventory was 3.5737 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 169,000 tons and a year-on-year increase of 134,100 tons. Traders replenished their stocks before the festival, and the replenishment intensity was greater than in previous years. The total inventory was 4.5215 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 183,000 tons and a year-on-year decrease of 0.5888 million tons. Although it increased significantly month-on-month, it was still significantly lower than the previous three years, indicating that the overall inventory pressure in the industry was less than in previous years [4]. - Inventory-to-sales ratio: It was at a high level, showing the pressure of supply and demand. The current inventory-to-sales ratio was 11.79 days, a significant year-on-year increase to 2.34. A high inventory-to-sales ratio means that the current inventory level is much higher than the demand digestion capacity, and the supply-demand mismatch is serious, which will suppress the rebound space of hot-rolled coil prices until the demand substantially recovers [5]. - Policy side: There were intertwined internal and external disturbances, and policy expectations dominated sentiment. Domestically, the "14th Five-Year Plan" was about to be launched in 2026, and the Two Sessions were approaching. The market's expectations for policies such as infrastructure investment, equipment renewal, and trade-in were rising, but the actual project implementation rhythm after the festival was not yet clear. Internationally, the United States imposed a 10% tariff on imported goods starting from February 24, triggering concerns about global trade frictions and potentially suppressing export-oriented steel products. In terms of liquidity, the People's Bank of China conducted a 1-trillion-yuan 6-month outright reverse repurchase on February 13, releasing medium- and long-term liquidity and providing marginal support to market sentiment [5]. Market Driving Factor Analysis - Bullish factors: Supply contraction, demand resilience, and policy support ("14th Five-Year Plan", infrastructure investment) [6]. - Bearish factors: Slow demand realization, drag from the raw material end, inventory accumulation suppressing prices, and increased macro disturbances [6].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the construction decoration industry is "Positive" (maintained) [4] Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the resumption of work after the holiday, with Q1 2026 expected to see a "good start." Historical analysis of previous five-year planning cycles shows that infrastructure investment typically exhibits a "high start and stable finish" characteristic. The first half of the "13th Five-Year" and "14th Five-Year" plans demonstrated this pattern clearly. As 2026 marks the beginning of the "15th Five-Year" plan, with a backdrop of intensive project launches and the release of project reserves, the investment pace is anticipated to enter a rising phase again. Additionally, there are two low base supports: the base for the same period in 2025 is relatively low, with last year's Q1 narrow infrastructure growth rate at only 5%-6%, near a five-year low; and broad infrastructure investment in Q4 2025 saw a year-on-year decline of over 10%. Given the cyclical shift and the resonance of low base recovery, Q1 2026 infrastructure investment is expected to have year-on-year elasticity, making the post-holiday resumption of work a key focus [5][12] Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The report suggests focusing on structural opportunities in Honglu Steel Structure and China National Materials. Honglu Steel Structure's Q4 2025 output reached 1.41 million tons, up 11.94% year-on-year, indicating that the past three years of intelligent investment are entering a concentrated payoff period. The annual output for 2025 was 5.021 million tons, up 11.3%, with a capacity utilization rate of approximately 96.55%. With nearly 2,500 welding robots and intelligent production lines being deployed, production efficiency and effective capacity are expected to improve, with Q4 2025 already reflecting this, and further amplification expected in 2026. If manufacturing demand remains stable, the company is likely to achieve revenue growth through market share gains due to cost and scale advantages. If demand recovers, the combined effect of beta and alpha could open up valuation space. China National Materials, on the other hand, has attributes of "high overseas prosperity + high dividends," maintaining the world's number one market share in cement technology equipment and engineering services for 17 consecutive years. The business is primarily overseas, with new overseas orders in 2025 amounting to 45.024 billion yuan, up 24.37% year-on-year, providing strong support for performance [6][15] Infrastructure Data Tracking - New special bonds issued this week amounted to 195.014 billion yuan, with a cumulative issuance of 711.469 billion yuan as of February 15, 2026, representing a year-on-year increase of 164.33%. The issuance of urban investment bonds this week was 39.298 billion yuan, with a net financing amount of 13.838 billion yuan, bringing the cumulative net financing amount to 52.568 billion yuan as of February 15, 2026 [7][34] Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.41%, the Shenzhen Component Index by 1.39%, and the ChiNext Index by 1.22% during the week. The Shenwan Construction Decoration Index increased by 0.37%, with the landscaping, other professional engineering, and decoration sectors leading the gains at +4.40%, +2.57%, and +2.30%, respectively. Among individual stocks, 66 stocks in the construction sector rose, with the top five gainers being Yabo Co., Ltd. (+32.58%), Decai Co., Ltd. (+31.75%), Roman Co., Ltd. (+27.27%), Shenghui Integration (+26.85%), and Huilv Ecology (+21.40%) [8][28]

Core Insights - Strong demand for U.S. corporate bonds is driving unprecedented competition in the primary market and significantly increasing trading activity in the secondary market [1] - The competition index for high-rated and junk bond markets has surpassed any period since 2017, with competition intensity for high-rated bonds in the first half of 2025 being 15% higher and for junk bonds approximately 30% higher than in 2017 [1][2] - The analysis covers over 10,000 high-rated and high-yield bond issuances from January 2017 to June 2025, along with over a million bond allocation records [1] Market Dynamics - The number of funds participating in the primary market, including ETFs and index funds, has significantly broadened market participation, with U.S. life insurance companies further intensifying competition [2] - Since 2024, the scale of foreign investors holding U.S. corporate bonds has increased by approximately 10% year-on-year, marking the first consecutive two-year growth since the global financial crisis [2] - Investors unable to secure new bonds in the primary market are driving up secondary market trading, with the turnover rate for high-rated bonds exceeding $1 billion rising to 26% in the first 10 days post-listing, a 73% increase from 2017 [2] Liquidity and Future Outlook - The time taken for the first secondary market transaction after bond listing has nearly halved from around 60 minutes before 2022 to 20-30 minutes [3] - Improved liquidity in the secondary market has lowered risk premiums, encouraging investors to be more aggressive in the primary market, creating a positive feedback loop [3] - Barclays anticipates that the issuance of U.S. corporate bonds will reach a historical record in 2026, driven by rising refinancing needs, increased leveraged buyouts and mergers, as well as capital expenditure expansion fueled by artificial intelligence and infrastructure investments [3]

Group 1 - The controlling shareholder, Conch Group, plans to increase its stake in Conch Cement by investing between 700 million and 1.4 billion yuan within six months, without a set price range [1][2] - Conch Cement's stock price has seen a significant increase of over 19% since January 20, 2025, despite being at a low since 2020 [1][3] - The company's net profit attributable to shareholders has stabilized in 2025, with a reported 6.305 billion yuan for the first three quarters, marking a year-on-year increase of 21.28% [1][4] Group 2 - The increase in shareholding reflects confidence in Conch Cement's operational strength and the optimistic outlook for the cement industry, driven by steady infrastructure investment and ongoing policy improvements in the real estate market [3] - Conch Cement's revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 was 61.298 billion yuan, a decrease of 10.06% year-on-year, indicating challenges in the industry [4] - The company has improved its cash flow, with net cash from operating activities rising from 6.871 billion yuan in the same period of 2024 to 8.287 billion yuan in 2025 [5] Group 3 - Conch Cement has a low debt ratio of 20.59% as of the end of the third quarter of 2025, indicating strong asset quality [1][5] - The company has a history of shareholder returns, having distributed approximately 84 billion yuan in dividends since its listing, and has announced a plan to return at least 50% of its net profit to shareholders annually from 2025 to 2027 [5] - The stock buyback and dividend plan aims to establish a stable return mechanism for shareholders [5]