每经铜陵8月25日电（记者李卓）8月25日，小菜园（0999.HK）创始人兼董事长汪书高在媒体沟通会上 谈及外卖大战时表示，今年7月份三个平台打仗确实影响了小菜园。外卖订单量提升了，比如突然来了 100多个单子，会非常影响堂食服务，照顾不好堂食体验。所以从8月开始，小菜园不参与三个外卖平台 （美团、淘宝闪购、京东）的任何折扣，优先把堂食做好。 汪书高同时认为，补贴方式不会长久，关键"还是要好吃"。他表示，外卖和堂食的理想比例是"三七 开"，最好不超过35%，不会为了做外卖而做外卖。 （文章来源：每日经济新闻） ...

文 | 镜相工作室 刘纾含 美食街上，只剩外卖骑手 7月末，宝龙后街一家蹄花店的老板陈莉关掉了她的店铺。在这之前，店铺转让的告示已经在玻璃上贴 了三个月，有人打电话来询问房租，听说一年高达23万，对方什么也没说就挂了电话。 店虽然关了，但租约还没到期。为了收回房租成本，她进了一批拖鞋在店里卖，吆喝着邀请街上的路人 进店试穿。普通拖鞋10元一双，洞洞鞋15元，陈莉从中午12点卖到晚上10点半，收入300多元，大概只 有一天房租的一半，但也好过前一阵卖蹄花的日子。 那时，陈莉每天要保证至少3000元的营业额，才能打平店里4名员工、房租水电和食材的成本。但是， 在激烈的外卖大战下，堂食客人越来越少，客单价越来越低，连不亏都成了一种奢望。 陈莉店铺所在的宝龙后街位于宿迁市主城区市中心，是当地人流量最大、商业气息最浓的步行街。宝龙 后街的南街以服装店、精品店为主，北街是大大小小的餐饮店，炒米粉、米线、拌饭这类快餐占大头， 陈莉的蹄花店是为数不多客单价超过40元的门店。 编辑 | 赵磊 从"盼着继续补贴"到"被逼着内卷"，过去几个月，宿迁这座苏北小城的餐饮生态，在号称"史上最大"的 外卖补贴战中，经历了被催熟的速生与速朽 ...

Group 1 - The intense "subsidy war" among major food delivery platforms has led to record-breaking order volumes since April, but many restaurant owners report that their profits have not increased and their operations have become more challenging [1] - A restaurant owner calculated that in June, after accounting for various costs including customer subsidies and platform commissions, the net income was significantly reduced, leading to a loss [1] - The owner of a restaurant with a 200 square meter area and 11 employees reported a fixed monthly expense of approximately 90,000 yuan, with the online business resulting in a real profit loss of over 10,000 yuan for June [3] Group 2 - The competitive landscape of food delivery services is characterized by high customer incentives, but this has not translated into profitability for many restaurant operators [1][3] - The financial breakdown of a restaurant's operations highlights the impact of delivery platform fees and subsidies on overall profitability, indicating a trend of "losing money to gain visibility" [3]

Core Insights - The intense "subsidy war" among major food delivery platforms has led to record-breaking order volumes, but many restaurant owners report that their profits have not increased and, in fact, their financial situations have worsened [1][3] - A specific case study from a restaurant owner illustrates that despite a high gross revenue from food delivery orders, the actual profit after accounting for various costs results in a significant loss [1][3] Financial Breakdown - In June, a restaurant received 4,158 orders through Meituan, generating a total revenue of 162,215.8 yuan, but after deducting customer subsidies (30,452.2 yuan), platform commissions (8,409.81 yuan), and delivery service fees (20,919.86 yuan), the net income was 102,433.93 yuan [1] - Fixed monthly expenses for the restaurant, including rent and employee salaries, amount to approximately 90,000 yuan, with about 34,000 yuan allocated to the food delivery business [3] - The cost of ingredients is estimated at 50%, totaling 78,774.4 yuan, leading to a calculated real profit of -10,340.47 yuan for June, indicating a loss despite high sales volume [3]

Core Insights - The recent promotional activities in the tea and coffee sector have led to a significant surge in consumer demand, particularly highlighted by the "first cup of autumn" campaign, which has become a trending topic on social media platforms [1][6] - Major brands like Luckin Coffee have reported impressive financial results, indicating that the current market dynamics allow for both high sales volumes and profitability, contrary to the common belief that low prices lead to losses [7][8] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The tea and coffee sector has seen a dramatic increase in order volumes, with platforms like JD.com reporting that beverage orders accounted for nearly half of their total orders on certain days [7] - Luckin Coffee's Q2 2025 financial report showed a total net revenue of 12.359 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 47.1%, with GAAP operating income rising by 61.8% [7][8] - The competitive landscape has intensified, with brands leveraging subsidies from delivery platforms to maintain low consumer prices while still achieving profitability [8][9] Group 2: Consumer Behavior - The introduction of "blind box" tea options has been a strategy to manage high order volumes and reduce wait times for consumers, indicating a shift in consumer expectations and preferences [6][9] - New brands like Jasmine Milk White have capitalized on the promotional environment, achieving significant sales growth despite having fewer locations compared to established competitors [10][11] Group 3: Brand Performance - Established brands maintain a competitive edge through their extensive networks and brand recognition, while newer entrants are finding opportunities to capture market share during promotional events [10][11] - The pricing strategies of various brands differ significantly across platforms, with some offering substantial discounts, which has led to increased sales for new entrants [11][19] Group 4: Future Outlook - The ongoing competition in the tea and coffee market is expected to continue, with major players like Luckin and Heytea expanding their international presence, reflecting confidence gained from domestic market success [21][22] - The sustainability of the promotional strategies and their impact on long-term profitability remains uncertain, as the market dynamics evolve [21][22]

【导读】 " 饿了么崩了 " 冲上微博热搜 中国基金报记者 李智 今天立秋， " 秋天的第一杯奶茶 " 大家喝了没？ " 饿了么崩了 " 冲上热搜 8 月 7 日， " 饿了么崩了 " 的相关话题冲上微博热搜，不少网友发文吐槽： " 饿了么崩了 "" 无法退单 "" 上午下单下午送到 " 。 还有网友晒图称， " 想点个午饭吃，结果饿了么崩了，订单也没法取消，到饭点也没吃上， 好饿。 " 各平台推出 " 秋天的第一杯奶茶 " 活动 今日立秋，饿了么联合淘宝闪购推出 " 奶茶免单 " 活动，大量用户集中下单 " 秋天的第一杯 奶茶 " 。 今天上午，饿了么官方微博曾发文称： " 官博特别加码：现在，淘宝搜提取码【 44357X 】 抢 10000 份奶茶免单卡。数量有限，手慢无！ " 另外，还有大量用户遭遇骑手长时间不接单、配送异常、订单无法取消或退款等情况。 而京东另辟蹊径，推出 " 秋天的第一口炸鸡 " 活动，整点限量抢外卖百亿补贴券。 随后， " 淘宝闪购奶茶免单 " 登上微博热搜榜。 不少网友晒图称，抢到了淘宝闪购免单卡，喝到了 " 秋天的第一杯奶茶 " 。 此外，美团同样推出 " 秋天的第一杯奶茶 " ...

Core Viewpoint - The new tea beverage category has emerged as the biggest beneficiary of the current takeaway subsidy, with Goldman Sachs raising profit forecasts for Gu Ming and Mi Xue Bing Cheng by 9% and 1% respectively due to prolonged subsidies [1][2][3] Group 1: Profit Forecast Adjustments - Gu Ming's net profit forecast for 2025 has been raised by 9% to 2.2 billion RMB, translating to an additional profit of approximately 200 million RMB [2][15] - Mi Xue Bing Cheng's net profit forecast for 2025 has been increased by 1% to 5.4 billion RMB, resulting in an additional profit of around 50 million RMB [2][15] - The prolonged duration of takeaway subsidies has led to a significant increase in daily takeaway order volume, surpassing 100 million orders in Q2, a year-on-year growth of 27% [2][3] Group 2: Market Dynamics and Competition - The competition among takeaway platforms has intensified since JD launched a 10 billion RMB subsidy plan in April, with Meituan and Ele.me following suit, leading to a total investment of 25 billion RMB in Q2 alone [2][6] - The aggressive subsidy policies introduced in July, including free new tea beverage coupons, have temporarily boosted sales for new tea brands, but a decline in growth is expected post-subsidy [3][4] Group 3: Industry Trends and Store Expansion - The rapid expansion of new tea beverage stores has disrupted the ongoing industry consolidation trend, as subsidies have supported underperforming brands and slowed down store closures [4][5] - Gu Ming and Lucky Coffee have accelerated their store expansion in recent months, while brands like Cha Bai Dao and Nai Xue's Tea have shown improved same-store sales, potentially delaying store closure plans [5] Group 4: Long-term Outlook and Competitive Advantages - The normalization of subsidies is expected to accelerate industry consolidation, benefiting leading companies with supply chain and brand advantages [3][11] - Gu Ming's expansion into coffee and breakfast categories may mitigate some impacts from subsidy withdrawal, while Mi Xue Bing Cheng is less affected due to its lower reliance on takeaway [11][13] - Long-term, the competitive landscape may improve for core players, with Mi Xue's pricing power and supply chain capabilities supporting its growth, and Gu Ming's investment in product development and brand building aiding its market exploration [13][14]

Core Viewpoint - The competition in the takeaway coffee market is significantly driven by external subsidies, reshaping the market landscape and boosting sales for various brands [1][3][7]. Group 1: Company Performance - Luckin Coffee reported a revenue increase of 47.1% year-on-year to 12.36 billion yuan in Q2, with adjusted net profit rising 44.0% to 1.4 billion yuan [2]. - Self-operated store revenue for Luckin grew by 44.9% to 9.49 billion yuan, with a 30% increase in store count and same-store sales growth of 13.4% [2]. - Franchise store revenue reached 2.87 billion yuan, up 55% year-on-year, benefiting from a 34% increase in franchise store numbers and higher revenue from store sharing and delivery fees [2]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The sales growth is attributed to takeaway subsidies, with brands like Luckin, Kudi, and Mixue Ice City achieving significant sales milestones [3]. - Mixue's coffee brand, Lucky Coffee, experienced a sales peak, with average daily revenue per store reaching 5,732 yuan and a 258% increase in takeaway orders on July 12 [3]. - Lucky Coffee signed 164% more new stores year-on-year in Q2, with a 300% increase in franchise inquiries since July, particularly from first-tier cities [3]. Group 3: Brand Strategies - Kudi Coffee announced Yang Mi as its global brand ambassador and launched a "Milk Tea Season" marketing campaign, reducing drink prices from 9.9 yuan to 6.9 yuan after 3 PM [5]. - Kudi has over 15,000 stores and has achieved profitability since May 2024, indicating strong cash flow [5]. - Brands like Lucky Coffee maintain a cautious approach to takeaway subsidies, emphasizing the importance of store profitability and the need to protect franchisees [6].

Core Viewpoint - The company is expected to achieve a non-GAAP net profit of approximately 1 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, with a revenue growth of around 30%, aligning with market expectations [1]. Group 1: Revenue and Store Performance - The company anticipates strong same-store performance in the first half of 2025, driven by a low base and the competitive landscape in the takeaway market, with an expected same-store growth exceeding 20% in Q2 2025 [1][2]. - The total number of stores is projected to reach approximately 11,000 by the end of the first half of 2025, with around 1,100 new stores added [1]. - The company signed nearly 2,000 new stores from January to May, although some openings are delayed due to renovation capacity constraints [1]. Group 2: Profitability and Margin Outlook - The company is expected to see a recovery in profit margins, with a projected net profit margin increase of about 1 percentage point, leading to a non-GAAP net profit of around 1 billion yuan [2]. - The gross margin is anticipated to expand due to increased cup output, although the lower margin from coffee machines may offset some of this growth [2]. - Marketing efforts, including hiring brand ambassadors and social media promotions, are expected to enhance coffee sales, with coffee cup output potentially exceeding 10% by June [2]. Group 3: Competitive Landscape and Long-term Outlook - The company has established a foundation for survival without relying on a single platform through digitalization and supply chain development, positioning itself well for competition post-subsidy [3]. - The long-term trend suggests an increase in market share, focusing on brand value and stable customer experience rather than short-term promotions [3]. - The company has adjusted its profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026, increasing the adjusted net profit estimates by 9% and 7% to 2.2 billion and 2.5 billion yuan, respectively [3].

Group 1 - The current consumer landscape is characterized by experienced consumers who have become adept at taking advantage of promotional offers, particularly in the context of the recent intense competition in the food delivery sector [3][4]. - The recent food delivery competition has been labeled "epic," largely due to the extensive and accessible nature of promotional offers, with Alibaba reportedly investing 50 billion yuan in subsidies for its Taobao flash sales [4]. - The prevalence of promotional tactics, such as "0 yuan purchase" offers, has attracted even non-regular consumers, indicating a significant shift in consumer behavior driven by incentives [4].