Core Viewpoint - The futures prices of industrial silicon and polysilicon have diverged significantly, with industrial silicon prices declining while polysilicon prices have risen sharply [1] Group 1: Industrial Silicon Market - Industrial silicon futures prices have weakened, with the main SI2601 contract closing at 8340 yuan/ton, down 3.47%, breaking previous support levels [1] - The decline in industrial silicon prices is attributed to weakened supply and demand, with expectations of reduced demand from organic silicon companies and a seasonal decrease in production [1][3] - Analysts note that the production cost of industrial silicon may decrease due to falling coal prices, which are crucial for its production [2] Group 2: Polysilicon Market - Polysilicon futures prices have increased, with the main PS2601 contract closing at 55610 yuan/ton, up 3.45%, and several distant contracts rising over 5% [1] - The rise in polysilicon prices is influenced by news regarding the establishment of a "polysilicon capacity integration acquisition platform," which has generated significant market interest [2] - The ongoing "polysilicon storage" initiative has been a key factor supporting the price increase, although the overall demand in the photovoltaic industry remains weak [3] Group 3: Future Outlook - The current market conditions for both industrial silicon and polysilicon are characterized by weak supply and demand, with polysilicon prices likely to converge with spot prices due to these conditions [4] - Industrial silicon prices are expected to fluctuate around cost lines, with attention needed on coal prices and electricity rates in the northwest [5] - Despite expectations of a rebound in polysilicon prices due to "anti-involution" sentiments, the fundamental market conditions remain weak, limiting upward price potential [5]

多晶硅日报 油） 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 硅）028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 研究员：冯泽仁（玻璃纯碱） 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 行业 日期 2025 年 12 月 11 日 能源化工研究团队 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油燃料 研究员：任俊弛（PTA/MEG） 研究员：彭浩洲（工业硅/多晶 研究员：彭婧霖（聚烯烃） 研究员：刘悠然（纸浆） 期货从业资格号：F03134307 请阅读正文后的声明 每日报告 12 月 10 日， ...

Core Viewpoint - The establishment of the polysilicon storage platform "Guanghe Qiancheng" marks a significant shift in China's photovoltaic industry, moving from a fully market-driven competition phase to a new stage of "market operation + industry collaborative regulation" [1][7]. Group 1: Formation of the Storage Platform - The polysilicon storage platform "Guanghe Qiancheng" was officially registered on December 10, 2023, amidst the industry's overall "anti-involution" trend [1]. - The platform aims to eliminate excess capacity and settle accumulated debts within the industry [1]. Group 2: Shareholding Structure - "Guanghe Qiancheng" has a registered capital of 3 billion yuan, with shareholders comprising 10 photovoltaic and polysilicon companies [3]. - Major shareholders include Tongwei Co., Ltd. and GCL-Poly Energy Holdings, which together account for nearly 70% of the industry's effective polysilicon capacity [3][4]. Group 3: Pricing Mechanism Changes - The establishment of the storage platform is expected to fundamentally change the polysilicon pricing mechanism, with future sales prices including a "storage cost" [6]. - The mainstream price of polysilicon is projected to stabilize above 60,000 yuan per ton, marking a critical step towards industry value recovery and establishing a long-term healthy ecosystem [6][7]. Group 4: Market Reactions and Trends - Following the announcement of the storage platform, the capital market reacted with a decline in stock prices for major companies, including Tongwei and GCL-Poly [6]. - As of December 9, 2023, the spot price of polysilicon had risen nearly 50% from its low earlier in the year, reaching 52,000 yuan per ton [7].

Core Viewpoint - The futures prices of industrial silicon and polysilicon have diverged significantly, with industrial silicon prices declining while polysilicon prices have risen sharply [1][2]. Group 1: Industrial Silicon Market - The main contract for industrial silicon (SI2601) closed at 8340 yuan/ton, down 3.47%, breaking previous support levels due to weakened supply and demand [1]. - Analysts indicate that the demand for industrial silicon is expected to decrease as organic silicon companies plan to reduce production in December, leading to a decline in operating rates [1][3]. - The supply side is also facing seasonal production declines, with increased shutdowns in the southwest and potential production limits in the northwest due to environmental issues [1][3]. - The recent drop in coal prices is expected to lower production costs for industrial silicon, further pressuring prices [2]. Group 2: Polysilicon Market - The main contract for polysilicon (PS2601) closed at 55610 yuan/ton, up 3.45%, with some distant contracts rising over 5% due to market speculation and news regarding capacity consolidation [1][2]. - The establishment of a new company for polysilicon capacity consolidation has generated significant market interest, boosting confidence in the polysilicon market [2][3]. - Despite the positive news, the overall demand for polysilicon remains weak, with downstream sectors experiencing losses, leading to reduced production schedules [3]. - Analysts suggest that while there is a potential for price recovery in polysilicon, the market remains fundamentally weak, and any upward movement may be limited [4]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The outlook for polysilicon prices suggests they may not break through the upper limits of the current trading range due to weak supply and demand dynamics [4]. - Industrial silicon prices are expected to fluctuate around cost lines, with attention needed on coal prices and electricity rates in the northwest [4]. - Overall, both markets are facing challenges, with industrial silicon showing potential for limited downward movement due to weakened cost support [4].

大中华区要闻： 2、再创新高！现货白银首次站上60美元； 3、WTI 1月原油期货收跌1.07%，报58.25美元/桶； 4、哈塞特：美联储有大量降息空间 不止25个基点； 5、美联储传声筒：面对罕见分歧 鲍威尔明日可能"先降息再设限"； 6、铜价从历史高位回落 投资者等待美联储信号； 7、美国国防授权法案要求美军2030年前结束依赖中国面板技术； 8、澳大利亚社媒禁令10日生效！16岁以下全面禁用：违规平台可罚款超2亿； 9、SpaceX计划明年IPO，募资远超300亿美元，估值或达1.5万亿美元； 10、美国11月小企业乐观指数回升至99 劳动力短缺与通胀压力仍存； 11、美修订版《生物安全法案》将被纳入讨论 未点名具体企业； 12、中国据悉将限制内地使用英伟达H200芯片； 格隆汇12月10日｜国际要闻： 1、美股三大指数收盘涨跌不一，摩根大通跌超4%，中概指数跌1.37%； 1、人形机器人被过度炒作！大摩警告：电池、感应器与供应链才是关键； 2、光和谦成注册成立！多晶硅"收储平台"来了？业内称产能与成本优化有望迈出关键一步； 3、福建泉州：支持各县(市、区)因地制宜开展与金门、澎湖等地融合发展实践； ...

Group 1: Federal Reserve Monetary Policy - The Federal Reserve's monetary policy meeting is scheduled for December 9-10, with results expected soon [1] - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in December is reported at 87.6% according to the latest CME "FedWatch" [2] - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut was 89.4% on December 9, indicating a slight decrease in expectations [3] - On December 8, the probability was 86.2%, showing fluctuations in market sentiment leading up to the meeting [4] - The probability was 87% on December 5, reflecting consistent expectations for a rate cut [5] - On December 3, the probability was 89.2%, suggesting strong market anticipation for a rate cut [6] - There are notable divisions among the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) members regarding the necessity of a rate cut, with 10 out of 19 members expressing skepticism [6] - President Trump is conducting final interviews for candidates to replace the Fed chair, with Kevin Hassett being a leading candidate [6][9] - Hassett believes the Fed has ample room to significantly lower the benchmark interest rate [7][8] Group 2: Silicon Industry Analysis - Industrial silicon prices are declining, with the main SI2601 contract closing at 8340 yuan/ton, down 3.47% [10] - In contrast, polysilicon prices are rising, with the main PS2601 contract closing at 55610 yuan/ton, up 3.45% [10] - The decline in industrial silicon prices is attributed to weakened supply and demand, with expectations of reduced demand from organic silicon producers [10] - Industrial silicon production is experiencing seasonal declines, with increased shutdowns in the southwest region due to environmental issues [10] - The recent drop in coal prices is expected to lower production costs for industrial silicon, further pressuring prices [11] - Polysilicon price increases are driven by news of a new "polysilicon capacity integration acquisition platform," which has garnered significant industry attention [12] - The establishment of this platform is seen as a potential positive development for market confidence in polysilicon prices [12] - Despite the positive news for polysilicon, overall demand in the photovoltaic industry remains weak, with many downstream companies operating at a loss [13] - Both industrial silicon and polysilicon are currently in a weak fundamental state, with inventory levels rising [13] - Future price movements for polysilicon may be limited due to ongoing supply-demand imbalances, while industrial silicon prices are expected to fluctuate around cost lines [14]

Group 1 - The newly established company, Beijing Guanghe Qiancheng Technology Co., Ltd., has a registered capital of 3 billion yuan and aims to explore strategic cooperation opportunities within the polysilicon industry [1] - The total investment from various parties for the polysilicon storage platform is estimated to be between 20 billion and 30 billion yuan, with the total funds required for capacity storage expected to exceed this amount [2] - The polysilicon industry is currently facing significant overcapacity and losses, but it also has the highest concentration of capacity, which theoretically facilitates consensus among companies to control production and stabilize prices [2] Group 2 - Tongwei Co., Ltd. is a leading company in the industry with an annual production capacity of over 900,000 tons of high-purity polysilicon, and the investment cost per ton has been reduced to around 5 million yuan [3] - Ordos has a polysilicon production capacity of 28,000 tons and has maintained a high dividend policy from 2020 to 2024, with dividend ratios of 74.76%, 46.89%, 42.24%, 77.11%, and 90.92% respectively [3]

Core Viewpoint - The establishment of a polysilicon industry consolidation and acquisition platform has heightened investor expectations for supply-side centralization, leading to a rapid increase in the photovoltaic sector's stock prices [1][4]. Group 1: Market Reactions - As of December 9, the photovoltaic 50 ETF rose by 0.49%, with leading stocks such as Tongwei Co. reversing a 2% decline to achieve a peak increase of over 3% [1]. - Qingyuan Co. hit the daily limit, while Tuori New Energy and Daqo New Energy saw increases of nearly 5% and 6%, respectively [1]. Group 2: Platform Establishment - The newly formed company, Beijing Guanghe Qiancheng Technology Co., Ltd., has a registered capital of 3 billion yuan and is located in Chaoyang District, Beijing [4]. - This platform is viewed as a significant development in the long-anticipated polysilicon storage plan within the industry [4]. Group 3: Strategic Collaborations - Guanghe Qiancheng's primary business involves exploring potential strategic cooperation opportunities for major industry players, including technology upgrades, market expansion, and capacity and cost optimization [6]. - The company's registration information is currently not available on official channels, raising questions about its status as a "polysilicon capacity consolidation and acquisition platform" [6]. Group 4: Industry Context - The photovoltaic industry is currently facing severe overcapacity and price war pressures, prompting efforts to promote industry self-discipline and orderly exit of outdated capacities [8]. - A coalition of leading polysilicon companies is being formed to eliminate some capacities and settle accumulated debts, with a total investment expected to be between 20 billion and 30 billion yuan [7]. - The consensus among 17 leading companies aims to establish a joint storage capacity by the end of the year, although specific details are still being finalized [7].

在企业类型方面，该公司为有限责任公司（外商投资企业与内资合资）。 有分析人士称，公司为外商与内资合资企业，方便港股上市公司 参股，也便于外资投资人参与募资。 截至发稿，天眼查等工商信息查询平台尚未收录该企业信息。据上述企业人士对财联社记者透露，该注册公司主要为行业内主要企业探索行 业内潜在战略合作机会，如技术升级、市场拓展、产能与成本优化。 今日有消息称，"多晶硅平台公司注册"，公司名称为北京光和谦成科技有限责任公司，注册资本30亿元，成立日期为2025年12月9日。公 司住所在北京市朝阳区。 有头部硅料企业人士称，该消息属实，但具体安排由行业协会负责。 资料显示，该企业经营范围包括一般项目：技术服务、技术开发、技术咨询、技术交流、技术转让、技术推广；企业管理咨询。 在乐观预期看来，新成立的多晶硅整合平台将从多方面影响行业，包括助力价格与盈利修复、重塑市场长期格局以及优化上下游产业链传导 等。有业内人士称，未来通过产能收储与配额调控，目标是将价格稳定在6万元/吨以上，覆盖成本并保障行业合理利润。 作为此轮光伏反"内卷"的重要风向标，多晶硅"收储"方案从筹划至今，始终受到高度关注。在今年11月进行的2025第八 ...

对于整个行业来说，30亿能干啥？ 成立一家有限责任公司，这家公司就可以公然违反反垄断法给全行业定价吗？ 有官方机构入主吗？ 热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 奇犽少爷聊逻辑 30亿的事情，也是早就知道了。 当时本想说点什么，因为本质上700亿变成30亿，是个巨大利空。 11月28日的文章，发文之后被我自己迅速删除了。 还是那句话，知道很多信息，但是我自己不想成为小作文源头，我只写有理有据有法可依的东西。 尽管有时候确实憋屈，但是守住自己的底线。 我甚至一个字都没提多晶硅，不像许多公众号，张口就是收储，这还不算，还要写个"预计价格6万"这 种非官方的造谣信息。 我很想问，就在今天下午那些明显是造谣的公众号，广期所查不查？ 奇犽少爷聊逻辑 30亿的事情，也是早就知道了。 当时本想说点什么，因为本质上700亿变成30亿，是个巨大利空。 再来看看这个再普通不过的经营范围，只有技术与企业管理咨询。 连投资都没有，收什么储，拿什么收储，行业过剩两百多万吨产能，收储五万吨，价格就上天了？ 是谁在把所有投资者当傻子一样愚弄，反复愚弄，反反复复愚弄？ 造谣者什么事都没有，辟谣者各种针对么？ 新浪 ...