Core Viewpoint - The recent volatility in the silver market, particularly the sharp rise and subsequent drop in the price of silver, has led to confusion among investors, especially regarding the performance of the Guotou Silver LOF fund, which experienced a significant drop despite the high silver prices [1]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - On December 29, 2025, international silver prices surged by 5.3%, approaching $84, but the Guotou Silver LOF (161226) faced a rapid decline, hitting the daily limit down [1]. - The Guotou Silver LOF has seen a premium rate of 19.4%, indicating a significant divergence between its market price and net asset value [4]. - The recent surge in silver prices has attracted substantial arbitrage activity, leading to increased volatility in the Guotou Silver LOF, with premiums peaking at 68.19% before stabilizing around 20% [2][5]. Group 2: Arbitrage Mechanism - The LOF structure allows for both "on-market price" and "off-market net value," creating opportunities for arbitrage when significant price discrepancies occur [2]. - The recent market conditions have made the Guotou Silver LOF an attractive target for arbitrage, as it is one of the few public funds directly linked to silver futures, leading to a rush of capital into the fund [5]. - The rapid influx of capital and the subsequent selling pressure have resulted in a "game of hot potato," where investors rush to exit before potential losses, culminating in a market correction [7][8]. Group 3: Investment Considerations - The Guotou Silver LOF serves as a unique channel for investors seeking exposure to silver, given the limited options for direct investment in physical silver [5]. - The volatility and high premiums associated with the Guotou Silver LOF highlight the risks of participating in such markets, particularly for retail investors who may not fully understand the implications of the arbitrage mechanisms at play [6][8]. - In contrast, gold ETFs have shown more stable growth and liquidity, making them a more suitable option for investors looking for exposure to precious metals without the same level of risk associated with silver LOFs [6].

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-12-30 消费转淡铝合金相对偏弱 重要数据 铝现货方面：SMM数据，华东A00铝价22490元/吨，较上一交易日变化470元/吨，华东铝现货升贴水-200元/ 吨，较上一交易日变化-10元/吨；中原A00铝价22300元/吨，现货升贴水较上一交易日变化-30元/吨至-390元/ 吨；佛山A00铝价录22410元/吨，较上一交易日变化470元/吨，铝现货升贴水较上一交易日变化-10元/吨至-280 元/吨。 铝期货方面：2025-12-29日沪铝主力合约开于22350元/吨，收于22570元/吨，较上一交易日变化185元/吨，最 高价达22980元/吨，最低价达到22110元/吨。全天交易日成交618625手，全天交易日持仓289255手。 库存方面，截止2025-12-29，SMM统计国内电解铝锭社会库存64.5万吨，较上一期变化2.8万吨，仓单库存78455 吨，较上一交易日变化1396吨，LME铝库存519250吨，较上一交易日变化-1800吨。 氧化铝现货价格：2025-12-29SMM氧化铝山西价格录得2665元/吨，山东价格录得2610元/吨，河南价格录得 26 ...

今日A股三大指数涨跌不一，沪指微涨走出九连阳，创业板指一度跌超1%。沪深两市成交额2.14万亿，较上一个交易日缩量209亿。 盘面上，全市场超3300只个股下跌，从板块来看，机器人概念午后反复活跃，商业航天概念延续强势，下跌方面，电池、乳业、电力等板块跌幅居前。 截至收盘，沪指涨0.04%，深成指跌0.49%，创业板指跌0.66%。 说到这里，距离2026年也就差几天，这两天的热搜和朋友圈也被各种年度闪屏。 航旅纵横告诉你今年飞了多少公里，超越了全国多少用户。QQ音乐、网易云音乐统计出你循环了几百遍的年度歌单，就连外卖APP都要提醒你今年吃了 多少顿炸鸡。 上周全市场都关注国投白银LOF这只基金从连续涨停到连续跌停，不知道多少小伙伴是吃到肉或是挨打了？ 今天的行情同样过山车，先是直线跌停，二十分钟后又差点涨停，现在还涨了3个多点，溢价率依然有近30%。 为啥会出现这种情况？ 看着这些五颜六色的数据回顾，不由想起咱们红绿相间的基金账户。 说实话，2025年的市场还算给力。 年初的DeepSeek时刻引爆全场，尽管有着关税冲突，整体来说也算顺风顺水。 一方面是套利党们急剧涌入，短短5个交易日冲进去17亿，要知道年 ...

Core Viewpoint - The strong performance of gold and silver this year has provided substantial returns for institutional investors and high-net-worth individuals, with significant arbitrage opportunities arising from the high premiums of the Guotou Silver LOF fund [1] Group 1: Market Performance - Silver has seen a strong upward trend, with the Guotou Ruibin Silver Futures LOF fund experiencing a price increase of over 100% from late November to December 24, significantly outpacing the rise in silver prices [1] - The premium rate of the Guotou Silver LOF fund exceeded 60% during this period, indicating a substantial deviation from its net asset value [1] Group 2: Arbitrage Opportunities - The arbitrage mechanism allows investors to purchase fund shares at net asset value and sell them at a higher market price, capitalizing on the price discrepancy [1] - The fund has a daily purchase limit of 500 yuan per account, which, while minimal for large investors, presents an attractive opportunity for smaller investors to earn profits of 200-300 yuan with relatively low risk [1] Group 3: Investor Education - The emergence of detailed "how-to" guides on social media has enabled many young investors to engage in their first investment operations, reinforcing the idea that investing is a rational activity based on rules and knowledge [2] - The recent arbitrage activities have served as an immersive educational experience for investors, making complex financial concepts more accessible and actionable [3][4]

Core Viewpoint - The recent arbitrage opportunities created by the high premium of the Guotou Silver LOF fund have provided both institutional investors and small investors with significant returns, highlighting the educational aspect of investment practices in the current market environment [1][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - The Guotou Silver LOF fund, primarily investing in silver futures, saw its secondary market price increase by over 100% from late November to December 24, significantly outpacing the silver price increase during the same period, with a premium rate exceeding 60% at one point [1][3]. - The fund's daily purchase limit for individual accounts is set at 500 yuan, which may seem negligible for large investors but offers small investors the potential to earn 200-300 yuan in profit amidst high premium rates, making it an attractive opportunity [2]. Group 2: Investor Education - The arbitrage activity surrounding the Guotou Silver LOF has served as an immersive educational experience for investors, particularly young individuals, allowing them to understand financial concepts such as "arbitrage," "premium," and "price differentials" through practical engagement rather than theoretical learning [3][4]. - The success of young investors in realizing small profits has provided them with a sense of achievement and reinforced the notion that investing is a rational activity based on rules and knowledge, rather than mere gambling [2][3]. Group 3: Risks and Considerations - Despite the attractive arbitrage opportunities, investors are cautioned about the risks involved, particularly the potential decline in silver prices during the arbitrage period, which could lead to losses for those who buy at high premiums [2][3]. - As of December 26, the price of the Guotou Silver LOF fell significantly, with its gains shrinking from over 100% to around 65%, and the premium rate dropping below 30%, indicating the volatility and risks associated with such investments [3].

Group 1: Report General Information - Reported industry: Oil and fat [1] - Report date: December 26, 2025 [2] - Researchers: Yulanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3] Group 2: Market Review and Operation Suggestions Market Review - P2605: Settlement price 8516, opening price 8520, highest price 8578, lowest price 8506, closing price 8542, up 26 (0.31%), trading volume 299943, open interest 434218, down 14422 [7] - P2601: Settlement price 8492, opening price 8502, highest price 8558, lowest price 8498, closing price 8514, up 22 (0.26%), trading volume 22134, open interest 23925, down 13555 [7] - Y2605: Settlement price 778, opening price 7766, highest price 7832, lowest price 7760, closing price 7824, up 46 (0.59%), trading volume 202686, open interest 642712, down 15724 [7] - Y2601: Settlement price 8004, opening price 7988, highest price 8050, lowest price 7988, closing price 8044, up 40 (0.50%), trading volume 69651, open interest 24712, up 66899 [7] - OI605: Settlement price 8901, opening price 8003, highest price 9020, lowest price 8961, closing price 8981, up 80 (0.90%), trading volume 181994, open interest 197238, up 972 [7] - OI601: Settlement price 9181, opening price 9314, highest price 9372, lowest price 9286, closing price 9361, up 180 (1.96%), trading volume 8539, open interest 12038, down 2656 [7] Basis Price - East China tertiary rapeseed oil: December - January: OI2605 + 530; February - March: OI2605 + 490 [7] - East China primary rapeseed oil: December - January: OI2605 + 730; February - March: OI2601 + 690 [7] - East China market primary soybean oil basis price: Spot: Y05 + 500; February - March: Y2605 + 460; February - April: Y2605 + 430; February - May: Y2605 + 380; March - May: Y2605 + 350; (May - July) 05 + 240; June - September 09 + 300 [7] - Dongguan palm oil quotes: Guangzhou Yihai 18 - degree: 05 + 160; Dongguan COFCO 18 - degree: 05 + 100; Dongguan factories 24 - degree: 05 - 30; Guangdong national standard 24 - degree: 05 + 20 [7] Operation Suggestions - Focus on the spot - futures convergence of the 2601 contract, and temporarily view it as a rebound [8] - CBOT soybeans and Malaysian futures are closed for Christmas. The supply - demand fundamentals of forward contracts are mixed. China's soybean procurement is progressing steadily, supporting CBOT soybeans, but US soybean export data is still weak, and Brazilian soybeans are expected to have a bumper harvest [8] - Domestic soybean oil basis is strong, and the futures price has strong support at 7800 - 8000 [8] - Due to high inventory levels, the upward trend of palm oil is difficult to sustain [8] - Rapeseed oil: Global rapeseed production hits a record, and Canadian exports are affected by Chinese tariffs. The market believes its valuation should decline. However, rapeseed oil spot is experiencing continuous inventory reduction, with concentrated ownership, and the basis quote is firm. Wait for the first - quarter tariff policy to be clear [8] - Due to the excessive decline, the futures price has rebounded from oversold levels, but be cautious about the unilateral upward height [8] - In arbitrage, go long on palm oil and soybean oil, and short on rapeseed oil [8] Group 3: Industry News - From December 1 - 20, 2025, Malaysian palm oil production decreased by 7.44% month - on - month. Production in the Malaysian Peninsula decreased by 11.66% month - on - month, Sabah decreased by 2.12%, Sarawak decreased by 0.75%, and East Malaysia decreased by 1.73% [11] - From December 1 - 25, Malaysian palm oil exports were 1058112 tons, a 1.6% increase compared to the same period in November. Exports to China were 108,000 tons, a decrease of 40,000 tons compared to the same period last month [10][11] Group 4: Data Overview - Figures include East China tertiary rapeseed oil spot price, East China quaternary soybean oil spot price, South China 24 - degree palm oil spot price, palm oil basis change, soybean oil basis change, rapeseed oil basis change, P1 - 5 spread, P5 - 9 spread, P9 - 1 spread, US dollar - Malaysian ringgit exchange rate, US dollar - RMB exchange rate [13][15][18][26][32][33]

ETF进化论 跌停了。。一场疯狂的套利游戏 原创 阅读全文 ...

来源：中国基金报 记者 泰勒 【导读】A股上涨，泰勒套利失败，白银基金跌停 A股低开高走 12月25日，A股早盘低开，随后逐渐回暖，沪指录得7连阳，深成指、创业板指探底回升。截至收盘， 沪指涨0.47%，深成指涨0.33%，创业板指涨0.3%。 全市场共3773只个股上涨，93只个股涨停，1473只个股下跌。 大家好，今天的A股表现不错，三大指数上涨，近4000只个股上涨！一起看看发生了什么事情。 | 880005 涨跌家数 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | E | 涨停 | | d3 | | 涨幅 | > 7% | | 153 | | 涨幅 | 5-7% | 1 | 129 | | 涨幅 | 3-5% | | 359 | | 涨幅 | 0-3% | | 3132 | | 跌幅 | 0-3% | | 1359 | | 跌幅 | 3-5% | | 95 | | 跌幅 | 5-7% | | | | 跌幅 | > 7% | | | | 其中 跌停 | | | 2 | | | | | 3773 | | 上證身數 下跌穿發 新聞 烏蘭報 | | | 1473 | | | | | 2 ...

【导读】A股上涨，泰勒套利失败，白银基金跌停 大家好，今天的A股表现不错，三大指数上涨，近4000只个股上涨！一起看看发生了什么事情。 A股低开高走 12月25日，A股早盘低开，随后逐渐回暖，沪指录得7连阳，深成指、创业板指探底回升。截至收盘，沪指涨0.47%，深成指涨0.33%，创业 板指涨0.3%。 | 880005 张跌家数 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 日中 | 涨停 | 93 | | 涨幅 | > 7% | 153 | | 涨幅 | 5-7% | 129 | | 涨幅 | 3-5% | 359 | | 张帽 | 0-3% | 3132 | | 跌幅 | 0-3% | 1359 | | 跌幅 | 3-5% | 95 | | 跌幅 | 5-7% | 15 | | 跌幅 | > 7% | 4 | | 其中 跌停 | | 2 | | 上涨家数 | | 3773 | | 下跌家数 平盘停牌 | | 1473 | | | | 220 | | | | 5466 | | 总品种数 总成交额 总成交量 | | 19439.18亿 | | | | 113821.2万 | | 涨家增减 | | ...

【导读】A股上涨，LOF集体涨停 ，收盘后央行又来利好! 中国基金报记者 泰勒 兄弟姐妹们啊，今天的市场，表现不错，全场的亮点，不在于股市，而在于基金，在于贵金属！ 一起看看发生了什么事情。 A股上涨 12月24日，A股全天走强，三大指数集体上扬。截至收盘， 沪指涨0.53%，深成指涨0.88%，创业板指涨0.77%。 商业航天概念股集体爆发，中国卫星、航天动力等20余股涨停。 | 算力硬件股延续强势，生益科技、天津普林等涨停。 | | --- | 福建板块走强，东百集团、安记食品等涨停。 | 代码 | 名称 | 张唱% | 现价 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 688807 | C优迅 | 14.03 ﻲ | 231.60 | | 600762 | 厦门国贸 | 10.08 R | 7.21 | | 002961 | 瑞达期货 | 10.02 | 29.21 | | 603678 | 火炬电子 | 10.02 R | 36.14 | | 002752 | 营兴股份 | 10.01 | 8.24 | | 003016 | 欣贺股份 | . 10.01 | 10.33 | | 600 ...