日本自民党新任总裁高市早苗在4日的记者会上明确了"积极财政"政策方向。除了尽早降低汽油税之 外，高市还提出将支援亏损企业为员工加薪。外交方面，高市主张设置谍报机构的指挥部"国家情报 局"…… 在10月4日召开的记者会上，日本自民党新任总裁高市早苗明确了"积极财政"政策方向。除了尽早降低 汽油税之外，高市还提出将支援亏损企业为员工加薪。关于日本银行（央行）的货币政策，高市表 示"政府应承担责任"，并要求与央行开展紧密对话。 在自民党总裁选举期间，高市早苗便将"负责任的积极财政"列为竞选承诺。4日的记者会上，她再次呼 吁尽早取消汽油税的原暂定税率（目前该税率约为每升25日元），同时提及正探讨增加地方政府用于应 对物价上涨的补贴资金。 高市早苗解释称，将为那些因亏损而无法适用"加薪促进税制"的中小企业及小规模经营者提供加薪支 持。"加薪促进税制"是通过减免加薪企业法人税来鼓励企业加薪的制度，但对于无需缴纳法人税的亏损 企业而言，该制度的实际益处有限。 在日本政府与央行的协作方面，高市早苗展现出积 极态度。她认为需求增长带动物价上涨的局面是理 想状态，表示"应与央行保持密切对话，直至实现这一目标"。她还指出"日本经济 ...

Core Viewpoint - The nomination of Stephen Miran to fill the vacancy on the Federal Reserve Board may influence future interest rate policies, with expectations leaning towards a more accommodative monetary stance [1][4] Group 1: Nomination Details - Stephen Miran, a Harvard-trained economist with extensive experience in fiscal and trade policy, has been nominated to temporarily fill the Federal Reserve Board vacancy left by a departing member [1] - The previous member's term was set to end in January next year, and Miran's confirmation could take several weeks to two months [4] Group 2: Market Implications - If Miran's appointment strengthens market expectations for future interest rate cuts, the US dollar may face downward pressure, while non-USD currencies like the euro and yen could gain support [4] - The recent Federal Reserve meeting saw a rare occurrence of multiple board members voting against maintaining the interest rate, indicating potential shifts in policy dynamics [1] Group 3: Future Considerations - Miran's background and policy orientation may provide new insights for the foreign exchange market, influencing long-term interest rate curves and the yields on dollar assets [4] - Investors are advised to monitor Miran's confirmation process, public statements, and economic data changes to adjust their foreign exchange trading strategies accordingly [4]

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Japan is close to achieving its inflation target but has not fully reached it, thus it needs to maintain its accommodative monetary policy [1] Summary by Relevant Categories Monetary Policy - The Bank of Japan's committee member Takeda Sho states that the current monetary policy remains necessary due to the incomplete achievement of the inflation target [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Japan should maintain its accommodative monetary policy stance to support economic activity [1] Group 1 - The current monetary policy is aimed at fostering economic growth [1] - The Bank of Japan's commitment to a loose monetary policy is crucial for sustaining economic momentum [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the importance of stop-loss strategies in trading, suggesting that having trading principles is crucial for success [1] - The gold market experienced a rebound on the last trading day of June, closing at 3302 after reaching a low of 3245 earlier in the day [3] - The monthly performance of gold shows a long upper shadow for three consecutive months, indicating significant selling pressure above [5] Group 2 - The upcoming non-farm payroll data will be released earlier due to the Independence Day holiday, with market focus on the July 9 tariff deadline set by Trump [7] - Short-term trading strategies suggest that after the recent bullish movement, traders should watch for potential pullbacks, with key resistance levels identified at 3322-25 and 3335-40 [8] - The silver market continues to align with the trends observed in gold and oil, with ongoing analysis and guidance available for traders [9]

Economic Performance - In May, industrial added value increased by 5.8% year-on-year, slightly above the consensus forecast of 5.7%[4] - Retail sales of consumer goods grew by 6.4% year-on-year in May, exceeding expectations and up 1.3 percentage points from April[10] - Fixed asset investment showed a cumulative year-on-year growth of 3.7% from January to May, down 0.3 percentage points from the previous period[18] Sector Analysis - Manufacturing investment from January to May rose by 8.5% year-on-year, while real estate investment fell by 10.7%[21] - The cumulative year-on-year decline in real estate new construction area was 22.8%, with completed area down by 17.3%[22] - High-tech industries saw a cumulative year-on-year growth of 9.5% in industrial added value from January to May[6] Policy Implications - The importance of stabilizing domestic demand is emphasized, especially with external uncertainties remaining high[30] - Active fiscal policies are being accelerated, with government bond financing continuing to grow significantly[30] - The government is focusing on measures to stabilize the real estate market and boost consumer spending[30] Risks - Potential risks include a resurgence of global inflation and a faster-than-expected economic slowdown in Europe and the U.S.[30]

Core Viewpoint - Paul Tudor Jones, a legendary investor managing a $16 billion macro hedge fund, predicts a significant depreciation of the US dollar, potentially by 10%, due to substantial cuts in short-term interest rates in the coming year [1][3]. Group 1: Economic Indicators - Jones identifies a steepening yield curve as a signal of changing economic structures, indicating that the gap between long-term and short-term interest rates is widening [3]. - Historical data suggests that fluctuations in the yield curve often lead to volatility in the currency market, impacting the value of the dollar as a global reserve currency [3]. Group 2: Monetary Policy Implications - The anticipated adjustment in US monetary policy is seen as a key driver for the dollar's depreciation, with Jones asserting that a significant reduction in short-term rates will diminish the dollar's attractiveness [3][4]. - A potential appointment of a "super dove" as the new Federal Reserve Chair could further exacerbate the situation by promoting loose monetary policies, aligning with Trump's growth agenda [4]. Group 3: Market Reactions - The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index has already declined nearly 8% since 2025, marking the worst start since its inception in 2005, largely attributed to the trade wars initiated by the Trump administration [4]. - Market participants are preparing for further dollar weakness, as options traders actively position themselves for this anticipated decline [5]. Group 4: Broader Economic Impact - A weaker dollar could stimulate US exports, enhancing competitiveness in international markets, but may also lead to higher import prices and inflation domestically [5]. - The depreciation of the dollar is expected to drive capital flows to other countries, potentially causing asset price volatility in emerging markets and affecting international commodity prices [5].

Economic Growth Overview - Australia's GDP grew by 0.2% quarter-on-quarter and 1.3% year-on-year in Q1 2025, showing a decline from the previous quarter's growth of 0.6% [1] - Per capita GDP experienced a negative growth of 0.2% quarter-on-quarter, contrasting with a 0.1% growth in the previous quarter [1] Factors Affecting Economic Performance - Public sector spending has significantly dragged down economic growth, reaching the highest level of detriment since Q3 2017 [1] - Extreme weather events have suppressed domestic final demand and exports, particularly impacting the mining, tourism, and shipping industries [1][2] Consumer and Investment Trends - Household consumption increased by 0.4%, driven mainly by spending on essential items such as food and rent [1] - Private sector investment rose by 0.7%, primarily from residential, new construction, and engineering projects, while public sector investment fell by 2% after reaching a record high in the previous quarter [1] Savings and Income - The household savings rate increased to 5.2%, with disposable income growing by 2.4% [1] Export Challenges - Commodity exports, particularly coal and liquefied natural gas, were negatively impacted by adverse weather affecting production and shipping [2] - The tourism services sector underperformed, with international student numbers growing below average and a decline in per capita spending by students [2] Economic Outlook - Experts suggest that despite the impact of extreme weather, the underlying economic fundamentals remain weak, with low consumer spending and business investment [2] - There is a call for more accommodative monetary policy to stimulate the economy, with potential early initiation of a rate cut cycle if the Reserve Bank of Australia acknowledges the trends of economic slowdown and declining inflation [2]

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of England's MPC member, Taylor, indicates that the risks of a downward economic outlook are increasing, necessitating a shift towards a more accommodative monetary policy. Inflation is not driven by supply and demand pressures [1] Group 1 - Taylor highlights the need for a more lenient monetary policy due to the rising risks associated with the global economic situation [1] - The current inflationary pressures are not attributed to supply and demand dynamics, suggesting other underlying factors at play [1]

Core Viewpoint - The South Korean economy is facing significant challenges, with a government-funded think tank drastically lowering its growth forecast for 2025 to 0.8%, down from a previous estimate of 2% [1][2] Economic Outlook - The Korea Development Institute has cut its economic growth forecast for 2025, reflecting the impact of U.S. tariffs on the trade-dependent nation [1] - The revised forecast is a stark reduction from the earlier prediction of 1.6% made in February [1] Political Context - The economic challenges come at a critical time as South Korea prepares for presidential elections on June 3, with candidates vying to demonstrate their capability to handle the global trade war [1] - Leading candidate Lee Jae-myung of the Democratic Party has a support rate of 49.5%, while his main rival Kim Moon-soo from the People Power Party has 38.2% [1] Trade Relations - The South Korean economy has already shown signs of contraction in the first quarter, indicating that business activity is weakening before exporters fully feel the impact of new U.S. tariffs [2] - South Korea has faced a 25% tariff on key exports such as automobiles, steel, and aluminum, which was temporarily reduced to 10% for 90 days starting in early April [2] Policy Recommendations - The think tank suggests that a loose monetary policy is advisable to mitigate downward price pressures resulting from slowing domestic and foreign demand [2]