对话人： 李拯：实际上，"内卷式"竞争不仅存在于光伏行业。在新能源汽车、电商、外卖等领 域，都出现了过度压低价格的"内卷式"竞争问题。从经济发展规律来看，如何认识"内卷 式"竞争现象？ 李 拯 人民日报评论员 焦 翔 中国能源报副总编辑 李拯：习近平总书记强调："要深化要素市场化配置改革，主动破除地方保护、市场分 割和'内卷式'竞争。"今年以来，反"内卷"备受关注，光伏行业更成为媒体关注的焦点、集中 整治的重点，其出现"内卷式"竞争的深层原因是什么？ 焦翔：上半年，近半数中国光伏企业实现同比减亏或净利润增长，这反映出国家、行业 和企业层面多管齐下、协同应对"内卷式"竞争是有效果的，但行业盈利拐点尚未到来，不可 忽视解决这一问题的复杂性。过去，一些地方以融资、税收、用地等优惠政策吸引光伏项目 企业落地，部分企业以"价格战"开拓市场，创新不足，同质化严重，最终导致供需失衡。 焦翔：市场是配置资源最有效率的形式，有竞争才能优胜劣汰。然而，微观主体的"理 性"选择，汇聚起来就可能形成宏观层面的"非理性"现象。"内卷式"竞争就是一个典型的"合 成谬误"，反映出市场失灵的问题，也反映出一些地方政府不当干预的问题。 历史地 ...

李拯：习近平总书记强调："要深化要素市场化配置改革，主动破除地方保护、市场分割和'内卷式'竞 争。"今年以来，反"内卷"备受关注，光伏行业更成为媒体关注的焦点、集中整治的重点，其出现"内卷 式"竞争的深层原因是什么？ 焦翔：上半年，近半数中国光伏企业实现同比减亏或净利润增长，这反映出国家、行业和企业层面多管 齐下、协同应对"内卷式"竞争是有效果的，但行业盈利拐点尚未到来，不可忽视解决这一问题的复杂 性。过去，一些地方以融资、税收、用地等优惠政策吸引光伏项目企业落地，部分企业以"价格战"开拓 市场，创新不足，同质化严重，最终导致供需失衡。 李拯：实际上，"内卷式"竞争不仅存在于光伏行业。在新能源汽车、电商、外卖等领域，都出现了过度 压低价格的"内卷式"竞争问题。从经济发展规律来看，如何认识"内卷式"竞争现象？ 焦翔：市场是配置资源最有效率的形式，有竞争才能优胜劣汰。然而，微观主体的"理性"选择，汇聚起 来就可能形成宏观层面的"非理性"现象。"内卷式"竞争就是一个典型的"合成谬误"，反映出市场失灵的 问题，也反映出一些地方政府不当干预的问题。 历史地看，供不应求下的竞争不充分和供大于求下的竞争过度，都会在发展进程 ...

Group 1 - The marketing major in Hubei's higher education entrance examination requires students to possess good marketing thinking and a cutting-edge knowledge background in marketing, familiar with consumer demand-centered marketing activities and project-based marketing planning [1] Group 2 - The stages of new product development include: 1. Product idea generation 2. Screening to decide whether to continue using the idea 3. Business analysis involving potential sales and product costs 4. Development of the idea into a product 5. Market testing to reduce costs and risks 6. Launching the product [3][10] Group 3 - The product lifecycle consists of four stages: 1. Introduction: Low sales and profits, costs may exceed revenue 2. Growth: Rapid sales growth and increasing profits due to economies of scale 3. Maturity: Sales stabilize, competition increases, and weaker firms may exit 4. Decline: Sales decrease due to changing consumer preferences or new technologies [3] Group 4 - Supply and demand market changes indicate that: 1. Higher price levels lead to lower demand and vice versa 2. Higher price levels result in increased supply and vice versa 3. Equilibrium occurs when the quantity demanded equals the quantity supplied at a specific price [4] Group 5 - Methods to correct market failures include: 1. Regulation, which can be difficult to implement 2. Subsidies, which may not effectively encourage consumption 3. Legislation, which may not adequately inform consumers about harmful products 4. Taxation, which has limited effects due to inelastic demand for harmful goods [5] Group 6 - Government intervention methods include: 1. Macroeconomic policy tools aimed at influencing the overall economy, such as interest rate changes and government spending 2. Microeconomic policies that specifically target individual markets [6] Group 7 - Factors affecting demand changes include: 1. Income, prices of substitutes, seasonality, and climate 2. Customer expectations, prices of complementary goods, and advertising 3. Customer preferences and government policies [7] Group 8 - Production factors, which are resources available for use, include land, labor, capital, and entrepreneurship [8] Group 9 - Sources of market research information include: 1. Internal sources, which are information owned by the company 2. Primary external sources, which are information collected from the public 3. Secondary external sources, which are information derived from existing materials [9]

Group 1 - The core issue facing China's economic growth is insufficient demand and confidence, which are interrelated [4] - Current macroeconomic policies in China have been significantly strengthened, with an emphasis on both short-term stimulus and long-term structural reforms [5][7] - The unique approach of using non-price tools and administrative measures in macroeconomic policy is linked to China's transitional economy and underdeveloped market mechanisms [7] Group 2 - It is important to elevate the pursuit of moderate inflation to the same level as the goal of medium-speed economic growth, as low inflation can harm the economy [8] - Immediate implementation of planned fiscal expenditures is necessary, shifting focus from "heavy investment, light consumption" to supporting consumption growth [8] - Utilizing sovereign credit to stabilize the market and restore confidence is recommended, with the central government taking on certain responsibilities [8] Group 3 - Structural reform policies must keep pace with macroeconomic policy shifts to ensure sustainable economic progress over the next decade [10] - Increasing household income and improving social security are fundamental to expanding consumption, which is currently low in relation to GDP [10] - Local government investment attraction behaviors need to be regulated to prevent inefficiencies and over-concentration in certain industries [11][12] Group 4 - Effective market and proactive government roles must be balanced, with decision-making authority appropriately transferred to the market and enterprises [11] - Local governments should focus on core functions such as maintaining social order, ensuring fair competition, and providing public services, rather than solely on industrial policy [12]

Core Viewpoint - The revision of the Price Law is necessary to adapt to new circumstances and improve the rule of law in pricing, aiming to regulate market price order and curb "involution" competition, thereby protecting the legitimate rights and interests of consumers and operators, and maintaining a fair competitive market environment [1][3]. Group 1: Legislative Background - The draft for the revision of the Price Law was publicly solicited for opinions on July 24, marking the first amendment in 27 years since its implementation in 1998 [1]. - The revision is spearheaded by the National Development and Reform Commission and the State Administration for Market Regulation, focusing on current issues such as "price involution" [1][2]. Group 2: New Pricing Mechanisms - The revision aims to construct a new pricing mechanism from an institutional perspective, moving beyond simple amendments to the original text [2]. - The draft clarifies that government-guided prices are not limited to benchmark prices and their fluctuation ranges, allowing for a more flexible pricing mechanism that reflects market supply and demand [2][3]. Group 3: Regulation of Unfair Pricing Practices - The draft specifies standards for identifying unfair pricing behaviors, including low-price dumping, price collusion, price gouging, and price discrimination [3]. - It prohibits public enterprises and industry associations from leveraging their influence to enforce bundled sales or charge fees improperly [3]. Group 4: Government's Role in Market Regulation - The government plays a crucial role in regulating and adjusting market prices, especially in areas of significant public interest or severe market failure [3][4]. - The revised Price Law is designed to work in conjunction with the Anti-Monopoly Law and the Anti-Unfair Competition Law to create a comprehensive legal regulatory system [4].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the 20th anniversary of the RMB exchange rate reform, highlighting the shift from a fixed exchange rate to a managed floating exchange rate system based on market supply and demand, referencing a basket of currencies [1][3]. Exchange Rate Reform - The RMB exchange rate reform, known as "7·21," was implemented on July 21, 2005, transitioning from a single peg to the US dollar to a more flexible system [1]. - Since the reform, the People's Bank of China has gradually increased the daily fluctuation range of foreign exchange trading prices and reduced intervention in the exchange rate, enhancing the market's role in the formation of the exchange rate [1]. RMB Exchange Rate Trends - A report by the China Financial Forty Forum (CF40) analyzes the RMB exchange rate's fundamentals, valuation, and potential in the context of current foreign exchange management policies and the internationalization strategy of the RMB [3]. - From 2005 to early 2022, the RMB's real effective exchange rate appreciated nearly 60%, aligning with the faster productivity growth of China's trading partners [3]. - However, since 2022, despite rapid industrial upgrades and increasing export competitiveness, the RMB's real effective exchange rate has depreciated by over 15% [3][6]. Determinants of RMB Exchange Rate - The determinants of the RMB exchange rate include external forces (global financial market risk appetite and the US dollar index), domestic market forces (improvements in economic expectations), and domestic policy influences [4][5]. - The correlation between the RMB exchange rate and the US dollar index is significant but lower than that of developed countries' currencies [4]. Domestic Policy Impact - Since 2017, China's foreign exchange reserves have stabilized, indicating a reduced intervention by monetary authorities in managing the RMB exchange rate [5]. - The alignment of the RMB's central parity and spot exchange rate from 2017 to 2022 suggests a move towards a more flexible floating exchange rate system [5]. Demand Insufficiency - Demand insufficiency is identified as the primary reason for the RMB's continued depreciation since 2022, leading to low price levels and asset valuation [6]. - The low inflation and weak asset price expectations resulting from demand insufficiency reflect a market failure, causing an undervaluation of the RMB's real exchange rate [6]. Recommendations for Exchange Rate Management - To address the current situation, it is suggested to establish a wide fluctuation range for the RMB against the US dollar to prevent excessive distortion of the exchange rate [7]. - The implementation of this intervention should be firm, with strict penalties for actions that breach set limits, ensuring that market participants do not easily challenge the established boundaries [7].

Core Viewpoint - The report highlights a paradox where China's trade surplus is expanding while the Renminbi (RMB) is depreciating, raising questions about the underlying economic dynamics [1][3]. Group 1: Trade Surplus and Currency Dynamics - Since 2022, despite rapid industrial upgrades and increasing export competitiveness, China's trade surplus has reached new highs, yet the actual effective exchange rate of the RMB has declined by over 15% from Q1 2022 to Q1 2025 [3]. - According to Balassa's theory, faster productivity growth in a country's trade sector typically leads to currency appreciation, a trend observed in Japan, but this has not been the case for China [3]. Group 2: Demand Insufficiency and Market Failures - Zhang Bin attributes the continuous depreciation of the RMB since 2022 primarily to insufficient demand, which also explains the expanding trade surplus and significant net capital outflows [5]. - The insufficient demand has resulted in low inflation and weak asset price expectations, indicating a market failure characterized by price stickiness and coordination failures among market participants [5]. - Individual rational behaviors, such as reduced investment by businesses and decreased consumption by households, collectively contribute to a negative spiral of income and expenditure, exerting downward pressure on demand and asset prices, leading to depreciation of the nominal and actual effective RMB exchange rates [5]. Group 3: Recommendations for Currency Valuation - Experts, including Zhang Bin, believe the RMB is undervalued and recommend timely and sufficient counter-cyclical policies to achieve a reasonable valuation of the currency [5]. - If overcoming the demand insufficiency in the short term proves challenging, maintaining a wide fluctuation range for the RMB against the USD while firmly defending the upper and lower limits of RMB exchange rate fluctuations is advised [5].

Economic Growth and Demand - China's GDP grew by 5.3% year-on-year in the first half of the year, showing resilience despite a complex internal and external environment [2] - Investment growth rate decreased from 4.2% in Q1 to 2.8% in H1, below last year's annual growth rate of 3.2% [2] - Consumer spending increased from 4.6% to 5% year-on-year, but June's growth of 4.8% was a decline from May [2] Price Levels and Market Dynamics - June's CPI rose by 0.1% year-on-year, significantly below the 2% annual target, while PPI's decline expanded from -2.2% to -3.6% [3] - The persistent low price levels indicate a significant supply-demand imbalance, leading to reduced confidence among businesses and consumers [3][4] - Market mechanisms are exacerbating demand contraction, as low prices lead to cautious investment and consumption behaviors [3][4] Investment Trends - Investment growth in Q2 showed a notable decline, influenced by falling market prices and cautious corporate outlooks [7] - Real estate investment fell by 11.2% year-on-year in H1, with a 9.9% decline in Q1, reflecting weak demand and market sentiment [7][8] - The manufacturing sector's investment growth decreased due to negative expectations regarding future sales and profitability [7] Government Role and Policy Recommendations - The government is urged to increase public investment to counteract demand contraction and stimulate economic growth [9][11] - There is a need for a proactive macroeconomic policy to address the prolonged demand contraction and its underlying issues [9][10] - The government has the capacity to enhance public goods and services, which can effectively stimulate demand and support economic recovery [10][12]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the issue of "involutionary competition" in various industries, emphasizing the need for regulatory measures to promote product quality and orderly market competition, as highlighted in the recent Central Financial Committee meeting [1][5][6]. Understanding "Involutionary Competition" - "Involutionary competition" refers to a form of homogenized and disorderly competition, resulting in excessive investment without improving output efficiency, leading to resource misallocation [10][11]. - It manifests in two dimensions: horizontal competition among peers, characterized by over-investment and price wars, and vertical competition, where dominant firms transfer competitive pressure to suppliers and retailers, disrupting market order [11][12]. Causes of "Involutionary Competition" - The root causes include macroeconomic oversupply and microeconomic market failures. Oversupply leads to a negative cycle, while market failures can stem from blind investments and structural power imbalances [22][23]. - The article identifies the need to combat "involution" to achieve reasonable price recovery and promote sustainable innovation, shifting competition from price to value [31][35]. Effective Measures to Address "Involutionary Competition" - The current approach to combating "involution" is more market-oriented and legalistic compared to previous capacity reduction efforts, focusing on innovation and consumer demand [3][44]. - Industries likely to benefit from these measures include coal, steel, construction materials, chemicals, and emerging sectors like photovoltaic and electric vehicles, which are currently experiencing "involutionary competition" [6][66]. Regulatory Framework and Industry Response - Recent regulatory actions include collective production cuts in the photovoltaic glass sector and commitments from major automotive companies to limit payment terms to suppliers [6][9]. - The government has implemented various laws to ensure fair competition, such as the "Fair Competition Review Regulations" and the "Payment Guarantee for Small and Medium Enterprises" [9][17]. Industry Impact and Future Outlook - The article suggests that industries with significant "involutionary competition" characteristics, such as declining capacity utilization and increased sales expenses, should be closely monitored for the effectiveness of "anti-involution" policies [64][66]. - The transition from price competition to value competition is expected to enhance product quality and long-term profitability, aiding in the overall industrial upgrade and high-quality development [43][44].

Group 1: Key Events - On June 16, the White House announced a trade agreement between the U.S. and the UK, which includes a quota of 100,000 vehicles per year for U.S. imports from the UK, with a 10% tariff rate [1] - On June 17, the Bank of Japan decided to maintain its policy interest rate at around 0.5% and slow down the pace of bond purchase reductions, currently reducing by approximately 400 billion yen per quarter [2] - On June 18, the Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% to 4.50%, marking the fourth consecutive meeting without a rate change, while lowering economic growth forecasts for the U.S. [1][2] Group 2: Economic Data - Japan's exports fell for the first time in eight months in May, with exports to the U.S. down 11.1% year-on-year to 1.51 trillion yen, driven by declines in automotive and automotive parts exports [5] - The ZEW Economic Sentiment Index for the Eurozone rose significantly to 35.3 in June, up from 11.6, with Germany's index increasing to 47.5 from 25.2 [5] - U.S. retail sales fell by 0.9% month-on-month in May, the largest decline since March 2023, primarily due to decreased automobile purchases [5] Group 3: Monetary Policy - The Bank of England decided to keep its key interest rate unchanged at 4.25%, citing weak GDP growth and a soft labor market [2] - The yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds decreased by 0.9 basis points, while the yield on 10-year Japanese bonds fell by 1.6 basis points [10] Group 4: Commodity Prices - Brent crude oil prices fell by 3.76% to $75.78 per barrel, while WTI crude oil prices increased slightly by 0.28% to $74.04 per barrel [12] - The CRB Commodity Index decreased by 0.59%, while the Baltic Dry Index dropped by 3.54% [12]