Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Outperform the market (maintained rating) [4] Core Views - During the holiday period (September 29 - October 7), the Hong Kong building materials index rose by 2.55%, with glass products performing the best, including China Glass (+13.21%) and Xinyi Glass (+5.76%). Cement stocks followed, with China National Building Material (+4.55%) and West China Cement (+4.14%). Consumer building materials were relatively weak, with China Liansu down by 2.08% [2][12] - The current valuation percentiles indicate that glass products are below the 50th percentile of the past three years, while cement is above glass. Key companies like China National Building Material and Conch Cement are around the 80th percentile, suggesting that the recent rise is mainly due to the greater elasticity of undervalued glass products [2][12] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and five other departments jointly released the "Building Materials Industry Stabilization Growth Work Plan (2025-2026)", which addresses the weak market demand and structural issues in the building materials industry, outlining key goals and initiatives for 2025-2026. The plan is expected to accelerate capacity reduction and improve the competitive landscape of the industry [2][12] Summary by Sections Market Performance - In the two trading days before the holiday (September 29-30), the CSI 300 index rose by 1.99%, while the building materials sector (CITIC) increased by 1.57%. Notable individual stock performances included Shengfeng Cement (+14.8%) and Wanli Stone (+12.2%) [10][12] Recommended Stocks - The recommended stocks for the week include West China Cement, China National Building Material, Honghe Technology, China Jushi, Huaxin Cement, Sankeshu, and Dongpeng Holdings. The report suggests that the traditional building materials industry is nearing a cyclical bottom, with potential growth in new materials due to high demand in downstream sectors [3][16]

Group 1 - The construction materials sector (CITIC) declined by 1.73% this week, underperforming the CSI 300 index, which rose by 1.07%, resulting in a 2.8 percentage point lag behind the market [3][2] - Among the sub-sectors, the glass fiber and glass segments experienced smaller declines [3][2] - Notable individual stock performances included Xidamen (+9.8%), Shangfeng Cement (+8.1%), China Jushi (+7.5%), Fujian Cement (+7.4%), Yaopi B shares (+6.3%), and Zhongqi New Materials (+6.2%) [2][3] Group 2 - On September 24, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and five other departments jointly released the "Construction Materials Industry Stabilization Growth Work Plan (2025-2026)", addressing market demand issues and structural problems in the industry [3] - The plan emphasizes strict capacity control for cement and glass, promotes technological innovation, and encourages the digital transformation and green low-carbon upgrades of the industry [3] - Compared to the 2023-2024 stabilization plan, the new plan focuses more on resolving structural issues rather than merely emphasizing growth targets [3] Group 3 - The plan aims to enhance the application of green building materials and promote high-level international cooperation [3] - It also stresses the importance of matching supply and demand for high-end materials, including advanced ceramics and flexible glass products [3] - The report suggests focusing on traditional building materials such as cement (e.g., Huaxin Cement, Conch Cement, Shangfeng Cement) and glass (e.g., Qibin Group, Fuyao Glass, Yamaton) [3] Group 4 - Recommended stocks for the week include Xidamen, Zhongcai Technology, Honghe Technology, China Jushi, Huaxin Cement, Sankeshu, and Dongpeng Holdings [4] - The report highlights potential risks such as unexpected declines in infrastructure and real estate demand affecting cement and glass price trends [4]

Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Outperforming the market (maintained rating) [4] Core Viewpoints - The construction materials sector (CITIC) declined by 1.73% this week, underperforming the CSI 300 index, which rose by 1.07%, resulting in a 2.8 percentage point lag [2][10] - On September 24, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and five other departments jointly released the "Construction Materials Industry Stabilization Growth Work Plan (2025-2026)", addressing weak market demand and structural issues in the industry. The plan emphasizes strict capacity control for cement and glass, promotes technological innovation, and encourages digital transformation and green low-carbon upgrades [2][17] - The new plan focuses more on resolving structural issues rather than emphasizing growth targets, with clear measures for capacity control in overcapacity sectors like cement and glass. It also highlights the need for continuous improvement in transformation and upgrading, particularly in high-end materials [2][17] Summary by Sections Market Review - The CSI 300 index increased by 1.07% while the construction materials sector (CITIC) fell by 1.73%, with glass fiber and glass sub-sectors experiencing smaller declines. Notable stock performances included Xidamen (+9.8%), Shangfeng Cement (+8.1%), and China Jushi (+7.5%) [1][10] Key Recommendations - Recommended stocks include: 1. Cement: Huaxin Cement, Conch Cement, Shangfeng Cement 2. Glass: Qibin Group, Fuyao Glass, Yamaton 3. Consumer Building Materials: Dongfang Yuhong, Sankeshu, Beixin Building Materials 4. Glass Fiber: China Jushi, Shandong Fiberglass, Changhai Co. [2][19] Focused Investment Opportunities - The report suggests focusing on high-demand sectors such as high-end electronic fabrics and overseas markets, recommending companies like China National Materials, Honghe Technology, and West Cement [2][19]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the construction materials industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The construction materials sector is benefiting from significant infrastructure projects, such as the establishment of the new Tibet Railway Company with a registered capital of 95 billion yuan, which is expected to drive GDP growth by approximately 0.18 percentage points annually [3] - The report highlights key companies in the consumer building materials segment, including Sankeshu (channel expansion), Dongfang Yuhong (waterproofing leader), Weixing New Materials (high retail business proportion), and Jianlang Hardware [3] - The cement sector is expected to benefit from the National Development and Reform Commission's energy-saving and carbon reduction initiatives, aiming to control cement clinker capacity at around 1.8 billion tons by the end of 2025 [3] - The report also notes the positive impact of "equal tariffs" on glass fiber leaders with overseas production bases, enhancing profitability [3] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The construction materials index increased by 2.88% in the week from August 11 to August 15, 2025, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.51 percentage points [4][13] - Over the past three months, the CSI 300 index rose by 8.87%, while the construction materials index increased by 16.67%, outperforming the CSI 300 by 7.80 percentage points [4][13] - In the past year, the CSI 300 index increased by 25.61%, and the construction materials index rose by 35.30%, outperforming the CSI 300 by 9.69 percentage points [4][13] Cement Sector - As of August 15, 2025, the average price of P.O42.5 bulk cement in China was 275.14 yuan/ton, reflecting a 0.52% increase from the previous period [6][23] - The cement clinker inventory ratio was 66.18%, down by 1.30 percentage points [6][23] - Regional price variations were noted, with Northeast China seeing a 2.64% increase, while North China experienced a 0.75% decrease [6][23] Glass Sector - The average spot price of float glass as of August 15, 2025, was 1209.38 yuan/ton, down by 3.97% [6][77] - The average price of photovoltaic glass was 116.41 yuan/weight box, reflecting a slight increase of 0.13% [6][85] - National float glass inventory increased by 118 million weight boxes, a rise of 2.15% [6][79] Glass Fiber Sector - The market prices for various types of glass fiber remained stable, with some flexibility in transactions [6][4] - The report indicates that the glass fiber sector is also experiencing positive trends, with specific companies highlighted for their performance [6][4] Consumer Building Materials - The report notes that raw material prices for consumer building materials are maintaining a slight fluctuation trend [6][4] - Key companies in this segment are also tracked for their valuation performance [6][4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the building materials industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report highlights the ongoing transformation in the building materials industry driven by policies promoting a new supply structure and green innovation, particularly in the cement and glass sectors. The carbon trading market is expected to accelerate the exit of inefficient capacities, optimizing the supply landscape and sustaining investment interest in the sector [3][4][6] Market Performance - The building materials index increased by 1.19% in the week from August 4 to August 8, 2025, underperforming the CSI 300 index, which rose by 1.23%. Over the past three months, the CSI 300 index increased by 5.88%, while the building materials index rose by 11.41%, outperforming the CSI 300 by 5.53%. In the past year, the CSI 300 index increased by 23.21%, and the building materials index rose by 26.53%, outperforming the CSI 300 by 3.31% [4][13][14] Cement Sector - As of August 8, 2025, the average price of P.O42.5 bulk cement nationwide was 273.71 CNY/ton, a decrease of 0.42% from the previous period. The clinker inventory ratio was 67.48%, down by 2.15 percentage points [6][24][27] - The report indicates a regional price divergence in cement, with the Northeast region seeing a decrease of 0.34%, while the North China region remained stable [24][33] Glass Sector - The average spot price of float glass as of August 8, 2025, was 1259.34 CNY/ton, down by 3.19% from the previous period. The inventory of float glass increased by 25.34%, reaching 6490 million weight boxes [74][77] - The price of photovoltaic glass increased slightly, with an average price of 116.25 CNY/weight box, reflecting a 0.54% increase [83] Investment Recommendations - Recommended stocks in the consumption building materials sector include Sankeshu (for channel expansion), Dongfang Yuhong (waterproof leader), Weixing New Materials (high retail business proportion), and Jianlang Hardware. Beneficiary stocks include Beixin Building Materials (gypsum board leader) [3] - In the cement sector, recommended stocks include Conch Cement, Huaxin Cement, and Shangfeng Cement [3]

Core Viewpoint - The research focuses on identifying investment opportunities in the cement industry through various perspectives, including anti-involution, overseas cement markets, and regional analyses in Xinjiang and Tibet [1][2]. Group 1: Research Reports - The report highlights the geographical advantages of Xinjiang, where cement prices are more stable than the national average, supported by the construction of the China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan railway, which is expected to boost local cement demand [5][7]. - The cement production in Xinjiang for the first half of 2025 is projected to reach 19.46 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 5.4%, outperforming the national growth rate by 9.7 percentage points [7]. - The China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan railway is anticipated to generate a cement demand of approximately 400,000 to 600,000 tons, with the total demand from both segments of the railway estimated at 454,000 to 640,000 tons [8][9]. Group 2: Anti-Involution Strategies - The cement industry is adopting anti-involution strategies, focusing on limiting overproduction and improving price stability through differentiated peak-shifting measures [11][12]. - The industry is expected to see an increase in average capacity utilization from 50% to 70% if the anti-involution policies are fully implemented, enhancing the effectiveness of peak-shifting strategies [12]. - Major infrastructure projects, such as the "Yaxia" hydropower station in Tibet, are expected to stimulate demand recovery and improve profitability in the cement sector [12]. Group 3: Overseas Cement Market - The period from 2021 to 2024 is identified as a rapid expansion phase for Chinese cement companies overseas, with a significant increase in overseas production capacity [14][16]. - The profitability of overseas cement operations is expected to diverge post-2025, influenced by companies' operational capabilities and market positioning [14][17]. - The management of foreign currency exposure is crucial for translating nominal profits into actual earnings, especially in volatile markets [17]. Group 4: Regional Insights on Tibet - Despite a national decline in cement demand, Tibet's cement market is experiencing growth driven by major infrastructure projects and a stable supply structure [23][24]. - The region's cement production in 2023 reached 1.198 million tons, a 51% increase year-on-year, significantly outpacing the national average [26]. - The concentration of cement production in Tibet, with a high market share among a few companies, supports price stability and profitability [25][27]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The cement industry is transitioning towards a normalized and differentiated peak-shifting era, which is expected to improve capacity utilization and profitability [29][30]. - The anticipated recovery in demand and the implementation of peak-shifting strategies are expected to stabilize prices and enhance the overall profitability of the cement sector [32].

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for the industry, particularly in the context of rural road development and related materials [6][13]. Core Insights - The introduction of the "Rural Road Regulations" marks the first dedicated legislative framework for rural roads in China, aimed at enhancing rural infrastructure and supporting agricultural modernization [2][9]. - Rural road construction investment has consistently exceeded 400 billion yuan annually for the past eight years, with a total rural road mileage reaching 4.644 million kilometers by the end of 2024 [3][10]. - Key construction materials such as cement, concrete, and additives are expected to benefit from increased demand due to rural road projects, with optimistic estimates suggesting a potential increase in cement demand by 4 million tons [4][11]. - The report highlights a trend of decreasing cement prices, indicating a potential for industry recovery through supply-side reforms and capacity reductions [5][12]. Summary by Sections Legislative Framework - The "Rural Road Regulations" consist of 28 articles that establish a comprehensive system for rural road development, focusing on quality improvement, responsibility assignment, and safety enhancement [2][9]. Investment Trends - Continuous investment in rural road construction has been maintained at over 400 billion yuan, with plans for significant new and upgraded road mileage in the coming years [3][10]. Material Demand - The construction of rural roads is projected to significantly increase the demand for construction materials, particularly cement, with calculations suggesting a demand increase of approximately 2% relative to total production [4][11]. Market Dynamics - The cement industry is experiencing price declines, with a national average of 344 yuan per ton, prompting expectations for a positive impact from supply-side adjustments [5][12].

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call on the Building Materials Industry Industry Overview - The building materials industry is currently facing a situation where it aims to achieve a "de-involution" goal through limiting capital expenditures, reducing production capacity, and constraining output, similar to the supply-side reforms from 2015 to 2017, but the current efforts are not as strong as the previous round [1][2][4] - The cement industry experienced significant price increases due to supply-side reforms starting in 2016, driven by environmental production limits, but these constraints weakened after 2018, leading to enhanced industry resilience through improved corporate collaboration [1][7][8] Core Insights and Arguments - For the market to sustain or experience a second wave of growth, clear policy support for de-involution is necessary, alongside a favorable outlook for demand-driven industries, strict environmental regulations, and increased industry concentration [1][5][6] - The current institutional holding ratio and market expectations in the building materials sector are at low levels, meaning any positive changes could lead to significant stock price reactions, as evidenced by the recent performance of Conch Cement [1][10] - Recommended sectors for investment include photovoltaic glass and cement, with photovoltaic glass benefiting from de-involution and price recovery expectations, while the cement sector is noted for its solid self-discipline and collaborative effects [1][11] Important but Overlooked Content - The building materials industry has not yet implemented significant de-involution policies, but potential future measures may include limiting capital expenditures, reducing production capacity, and output constraints [2][4] - Historical experiences from the 2015-2017 supply-side reforms indicate that while the current situation may not match the previous level of demand or constraint, there are lessons to be learned regarding market expectations and policy impacts [3][4][9] - The current supply-demand situation in the building materials industry has not shown significant changes, with institutional holdings at historical lows, suggesting that even minor positive developments could lead to drastic stock price movements [10][13] Investment Strategy - The overall investment strategy in the building materials sector is to prioritize photovoltaic glass, followed by the cement sector, focusing on companies with cost advantages and potential for profit improvement, such as Qibin Group and Taipai Group [11][12][13] - The strategy emphasizes the importance of selecting stocks with solid fundamentals and the ability to respond quickly to policy changes, which could lead to significant returns [12][14]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the construction materials industry [5]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of anti-involution policies in the construction materials sector, highlighting three main paths: limiting capital expenditure, clearing existing capacity, and constraining current output [23][24]. - The report identifies that the anti-involution policies aim to alleviate deflation and stabilize employment, addressing the long-standing issue of overcapacity in various industries [19][23]. Summary by Sections Anti-Involution Paths - The report outlines three paths for anti-involution in the construction materials industry: 1. Limiting capital expenditure, which benefits demand-driven sectors like photovoltaic glass and carbon fiber [23]. 2. Clearing existing capacity, particularly in sectors like cement and glass where demand has peaked [23]. 3. Constraining current output, which may lead to short-term profit recovery but complicates long-term capacity reduction [23][24]. Cement Industry - The cement industry is currently facing overcapacity issues, with an estimated 40% excess capacity and a utilization rate projected at 60% for 2024 [70]. - The report forecasts a continued decline in cement demand over the next three years, with a projected decrease of 5% in 2025 [73]. Glass Industry - The float glass sector is experiencing a significant downturn, with prices and profits at historical lows. The average price for float glass is around 70 yuan per heavy box, indicating a return to low profitability [28][49]. - The report notes that the industry is currently operating at a capacity utilization rate of approximately 74.7% [31]. Photovoltaic Glass - The photovoltaic glass sector is also in a challenging position, with prices at historical lows and the entire industry facing losses. The average price for 3.2mm photovoltaic glass is about 18.5 yuan per square meter [49]. - The report highlights the need for controlling new capacity and suggests that the industry may benefit from policies aimed at reducing overcapacity [55]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on demand-driven sectors like photovoltaic glass and fiberglass, which are expected to benefit from anti-involution policies [23]. - It also recommends monitoring industries with strong self-discipline foundations, such as cement, which may see more stable profits [23].

Core Viewpoint - The construction materials industry is experiencing a "de-involution" policy direction since July, with different segments showing distinct rhythms and strategies. The market is increasingly focused on the demand side's recovery after supply expectations have been sufficiently addressed. The industry maintains an "overweight" rating [1]. Group 1: Cement Industry - The cement industry is focusing on limiting overproduction as a key policy measure, aiming to improve off-peak production. The actual capacity has exceeded designed capacity due to capacity replacement and technological upgrades from 2016 to 2022. The expected policy to limit overproduction could raise the national average capacity utilization from 50% to 70% if fully implemented [2]. - The recent initiation of hydropower projects is expected to catalyze demand recovery in the industry, creating a resonance between supply and demand expectations [2]. Group 2: Glass Industry - In the photovoltaic glass sector, leading companies are proactively reducing production to improve supply-demand balance, with a reduction of around 30% needed for equilibrium. The pace of implementation by leading firms is crucial for monitoring [3]. - For float glass, there are currently no mandatory policies, but the focus is on optimizing energy consumption structures. Some regions may see increased production costs, and cold repairs are expected to accelerate, benefiting overall supply-demand improvement [3]. Group 3: Consumer Building Materials - The consumer building materials sector is witnessing a stabilization in its structure, with proactive measures to improve profitability already underway. Some sub-sectors, such as waterproofing, piping, and coatings, have begun to raise prices, indicating a rational growth expectation [3]. - After a prolonged adjustment period in the real estate market, the long-term certainty of consumer building materials is solid, with leading companies expected to continue outperforming through structural optimization and expansion into new categories and markets [3].