今天忙里偷闲看了一期雪球周刊，发现大家思考的范围都很广，同时自己也是受到了颇多启发和感悟。 【什么是科技也无法改变的？】 有人提到了芒格的一个洞察：高科技再发展也改变不了人们嚼口香糖的味道。 基于这点，我个人也想到了很多，尤其是在选择投资标的的时候，不管是行业，还是公司。与其如过去 那般深入浅出的层层分析，把财务数据拆开、揉碎了研究，不如跳出这个局限，去看某个行业、某家公 司是否具备"高科技无法改变的特质"。 诚然，在这个"老登""小登"两极分化的环境下，这种做法多少会受到市场的嘲讽，就比如很多年轻、新 晋投资者就吐槽说不懂创新、固执己见，乃至是迟早被时代抛弃。 但站在一名投资者的角度，我们追求的无非是资产的长期增值、滚雪球般的复利机会，也就是说最好让 个人资产长期处在一个较为安全的状态下投资，这样即便是每年只有极少的回报，在时间的复利下也会 积少成多，攒下一笔丰厚的家底。 因此，那些能够跨越时间周期、不被科技发展所干扰的特性就显得极为重要。具体到行业，我个人最先 想到的就是与"口腹之欲"相关的，吃饭、喝水是人类自始至终都要做的事，永远不会因为科技发展而消 失；还有健康相关，不管什么时候健康的身体都是根本。 ...

一些外资机构也认为，市场慢牛格局已明确。 2026开年以来，A股行情再上一个台阶，沪指最新（1月9日）收于4120.43点，两市成交额突破3万亿大 关。机构如何看待当前的市场环境？ "从'924'到现在肯定是个牛市。"东方港湾董事长但斌认为，当前应着力提升上市公司质量，提高企业 的"护城河"，让其商业模式更加成熟，更能迎接挑战。 重阳投资董事长王庆认为，"924"行情以来，市场发生了变化。"市场风险偏好得以修复，我们判断，下 一步低估值价值股将进一步得到重估。"他说。 一些外资机构认为，市场慢牛格局已明确。"前不久，我们研究团队把对中国股票的评级从中性调整到 增持，我们认为，市场正在处于复苏的早期阶段，直白地讲就是慢牛。"摩根大通银行（中国）有限公 司行长熊碧华表示。 在1月10日至11日举办的第三十届中国资本市场论坛上，围绕当前市场情况，上述与会人士给出了最新 预判观点。 风险偏好对市场的影响弱化 王庆观察到，"924"行情以来，成长股有所表现。他预判，接下来，低估值价值股还将进一步得到重 估。 "在'924'之前，市场中的一部分板块是有机会的，就是高息股受到追捧，因为资产荒的背景下，高息股 成为债券和理财 ...

Core Viewpoint - Three stocks are highlighted with strong growth characteristics and buy ranks for investors to consider, specifically The Allstate Corporation, Great Lakes Dredge & Dock Corporation, and Alarm.com Holdings, Inc. [1][2][3] Company Summaries The Allstate Corporation (ALL) - Carries a Zacks Rank 1 - Zacks Consensus Estimate for current year earnings increased by 23.7% over the last 60 days - PEG ratio of 0.45 compared to the industry average of 1.78 - Possesses a Growth Score of A [1] Great Lakes Dredge & Dock Corporation (GLDD) - Carries a Zacks Rank 1 - Zacks Consensus Estimate for current year earnings increased by 6.9% over the last 60 days - PEG ratio of 1.01 compared to the industry average of 3.07 - Possesses a Growth Score of A [2] Alarm.com Holdings, Inc. (ALRM) - Carries a Zacks Rank 1 - Zacks Consensus Estimate for current year earnings increased by 5.5% over the last 60 days - PEG ratio of 1.51 compared to the industry average of 2.44 - Possesses a Growth Score of B [3]

Market Performance - The market experienced two new highs and three up days out of four during the holiday week, indicating strong performance [1] - The leading sectors included the Magnificent Seven, Large Caps, and Growth stocks, suggesting a continuation of trends in these areas [1] Analyst Background - The analyst has 28 years of experience as a professional trader, analyst, and portfolio manager, previously managing the equity trading desk at Northern Trust Co. in Chicago [1] - The analyst is now a private investor and founder of a nonprofit investor advocacy firm, with an average annual return of 17.2% since January 2009 [1] Investment Strategy - The analyst publishes stock picks in a newsletter format, providing updates on market outlook and model portfolios to subscribers on a weekly basis [1]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for global markets, suggesting that investors should maintain stock allocations while diversifying to hedge against high valuation risks [6][13]. Core Insights - Global stock markets are experiencing broad gains, with the Spanish market up nearly 70% in USD terms, indicating a significant geographical and sectoral expansion in market performance [1][2]. - The current high valuation levels, particularly in the US market with a P/E ratio exceeding 22, suggest that future returns will primarily stem from earnings growth rather than valuation expansion [3][4]. - Earnings growth expectations for 2026 are optimistic, with the US projected to achieve a 12% increase in earnings, driven by margin improvements and the growth of the technology sector [5][7]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The report highlights that 2025 has seen a more diversified market performance, with technology and AI sectors standing out, and for the first time since the financial crisis, most major stock markets have outperformed the US [2][8]. - The geographical breadth of market performance is expanding, with value stocks in Europe outperforming the market while US growth stocks regain dominance [3][10]. Earnings Growth Expectations - The report anticipates strong earnings growth across regions in 2026, with the US expected to benefit from margin improvements and a robust technology sector [5][7]. - European markets, despite current profit weaknesses, are expected to improve as the euro strengthens against the dollar and energy sector impacts diminish [5]. Investment Strategies - Investors are advised to diversify their portfolios to mitigate high valuation risks while maintaining stock allocations, as global markets are catching up to the US, presenting new opportunities [6][13]. - The report emphasizes the importance of diversification across geography, factors, and sectors to optimize risk-adjusted returns, especially in light of the concentration risk posed by a few leading companies in the US market [12][13].

格隆汇12月17日｜午后，A股主要指数直线拉升，多只宽基ETF放量异动。 截至发稿，成长ETF（159259）放量上涨5.28%，显著跑赢大盘。 消息面上，昨日美国公布非农就业人数远低于预期，叠加失业率升至四年高点，市场对美联储降息、流 动性抬升的预期迅速预期升温，高久期、高成长资产率先受益。 成长ETF（159259）标的指数成分股中际旭创、新易盛早盘分别上涨超9%和6.7%，在流动性宽松预期 与AI算力需求双驱动下，业绩确定性进一步凸显，成为成长板块核心引擎。 成长100指数以分析师一致预期为锚，动态筛选处于爆发初期的优质企业，当前超70%权重集中于电 子、通信、计算机等高成长赛道，在流动性抬升时具备更强弹性与配置价值。 成长100指数正站在宏观流动性改善与产业趋势共振的关键节点，成长ETF（159259）为投资者一键布 局高成长赛道提供高效工具。 ...

对股票交易员而言，每年12月通常是所谓"粉饰橱窗"的时期——加仓年内赢家股、清仓落后标的，以锁 定全年业绩。然而今年的情况恰恰相反。 投资者正从科技巨头阵营中抽身撤离——今年正是这些龙头股推动标普500指数全年实现17%的涨幅;与 此同时，他们开始大举买入全年表现低迷的高风险小盘股，以及代表传统经济的交通运输板块个股。 自11月20日美股触及短期低点以来，小盘股标杆罗素2000指数已累计上涨9.4%，并于周四创下历史新 高;微型股指数涨幅达12%;而与经济周期高度相关的卡车运输、航运及航空股板块更是实现11%的涨 幅，且连续多个交易日录得上涨。同期标普500指数的涨幅仅为5.1%。 这一轮调仓换股的背后，是市场对"AI热潮普涨科技股"模式的质疑升温。英伟达(NVDA.US)、微软 (MSFT.US)等科技龙头的涨势均已陷入停滞。与此同时，投资者对美国经济将在2026年上半年加速复苏 的乐观预期，正促使他们弃成长、追价值，纷纷涌入此前估值偏低的价值股领域。 Citadel Securities策略师Scott Rubner上周五也向客户表示，"市场内部的轮动行情仍在持续"，罗素2000 指数已在多个交易日显著跑 ...

Core Viewpoint - Growth stocks are appealing due to their potential for above-average financial growth, but identifying those that can fulfill their potential is challenging due to associated risks and volatility [1] Group 1: Company Overview - Oceaneering International (OII) is highlighted as a recommended growth stock with a favorable Growth Score and a top Zacks Rank [2] - The company has a historical EPS growth rate of 118.9%, with projected EPS growth of 75.9% this year, significantly outperforming the industry average of -16.6% [5] Group 2: Financial Metrics - Oceaneering International has an asset utilization ratio (sales-to-total-assets ratio) of 1.19, indicating it generates $1.19 in sales for every dollar in assets, compared to the industry average of 0.93 [7] - The company's sales are expected to grow by 6.2% this year, while the industry average is 0% [8] Group 3: Earnings Estimates - There has been a positive trend in earnings estimate revisions for Oceaneering International, with the Zacks Consensus Estimate for the current year increasing by 11.4% over the past month [10] - The combination of a Zacks Rank 2 and a Growth Score of B suggests that Oceaneering International is a potential outperformer and a solid choice for growth investors [12]

12 月投资展望：蓄势而跃 20251130 摘要 消费市场基本面已触底，预计 2026 年消费将呈现低速增长，CPI 改善 程度将是关键。成长股加速下跌反映资金抛弃，短期内防御策略占优， 但调整充分的成长股明年或成首选，如白酒企业古井贡酒、山西汾酒、 泸州老窖等。 化妆品行业整体或逊于今年，但头部公司如若雨臣、毛戈平和尚美增长 预期乐观。跌幅较大的登康口腔、润门股份和珀莱雅亦值得关注。旅游 出行板块前景良好，受益于假期制度改革，推荐携程、同程、亚朵、华 住、锦江、首旅以及峨眉山、长白山和三峡旅游。 黄金珠宝行业短期仍受价格主导，销量承压，关注提价能力强或直营模 式企业。金条业务或受益于税改，推荐老凤祥、金菜百股份、六福集团 与周大福。新消费领域景气度高，关注潮玩、新兴国潮珠宝及相关电商， 如泡泡玛特、积木科技与名创优品。 家电行业个别股票筑底，与大盘相关性高。12 月排产降幅大，但与去年 同期高基数有关。关注龙头企业美的，其市占率稳定且分红预期良好。 推荐安孚科技，其充电宝业务有望带来额外收入增长。 目前拖累 CPI 的主要因素是猪肉价格和部分农产品价格，但整体价格水平已有 所回升。若 PPI 能略微回升， ...

3、美国9月非农就业数据远超预期，叠加美联储释放"鹰派"信号，导致市场对美联储12月降息的概率预期大幅降至40%以下。这意味着全球流动性宽松预期 受阻，对估值较高的成长股板块形成压制。 来源：股市你金哥 一、今日行情解读： 今天A股弱势调整，三大指数皆有明显下跌。我认为有以下原因： 1、隔夜美股三大指数集体收跌，以科技股为主的纳斯达克指数大跌2.15%。即便英伟达财报超预期，市场也对AI领域的估值泡沫感到担忧，导致其股价高 位回落。这直接拖累了A股半导体、AI应用等相关板块，呈现大跌。 2、美股的悲观情绪蔓延至亚太市场，日经225指数跌超2.3%，韩国综合指数一度跌4%，加剧了全球资本市场的避险氛围。 二、我的策略看法： A股市场短期的偏空面要更多一些，利空波及、获利了结、利润兑现，市场一波接着一波的担忧情绪，致使浮游筹码纷纷抛售，加剧了震荡幅度。 从情况看，我更偏向于现在的调整，是短期、阶段的，并不是长线行情结束的信号。毕竟，这次调整更多阶段涨多了，美联储降息概率下降，美股下跌、 AI估值担忧造成的。可这里面，并不足以击垮A股长线行情。 短线，我继续维持指数在4000点附近震荡的看法。 长线，我继续看多看涨 ...