从时间窗口来看，1月历来是A股市场的"数据验证期"，宏观经济数据的集中披露往往会引发市场波动 加大。当前市场正处于这一关键周期，后续将陆续迎来PMI、社融、消费等核心经济数据的发布，这些 数据将直接验证经济复苏的成色，进而影响连阳行情的持续性。如果数据表现不及预期，可能会加剧市 场短期波动，诱发技术性调整；若数据超预期则有望为连阳行情注入新动能，市场对数据的敏感反应必 然导致短期波动加剧。历史经验显示，数据验证期内市场往往呈现出震荡加剧的特征，此次15连阳过程 中的午后跳水，或正是这一周期属性的提前显现。 （来源：市场星报） A股三大指数周四走势分化，沪指震荡整理，日线收出"15连阳"，深证成指与创业板指走势较弱。截至 收盘，沪指跌0.07%，收报4082.98点；深证成指跌0.51%，收报13959.48点；创业板指跌0.82%，收报 3302.31点。沪深两市成交额达到28265亿元，较周三缩量552亿元。个股方面，上涨股票数量超过3700 只，逾110只股涨停。 A股市场延续震荡分化格局，上证指数在低开基础上一度翻红冲高，尽管午后多次出现跳水走势并短暂 翻绿，但依托低开后的缓冲空间，最终成功收复部分失地 ...

声明：本文内容均是根据权威材料，结合个人观点撰写的原创内容，辛苦各位看官支持。 文丨如梦 编辑丨小吕 2025年12月29日，贵金属市场直接"翻脸"，前一天还在历史高位狂欢的黄金白银，当天就迎来断崖式下 跌。 现货黄金一口气跌了200多美元，白银更狠，单日跌幅冲到9%，刷新了近半个世纪的单日下跌纪录。 这波过山车行情，就算是老股民怕是也得被惊出一身冷汗。 2011年银价飙升的时候，CME9天里5次上调保证金，结果白银几周内就大跌近30%，这次不过是故技重 施。 更让市场慌的是，当天还传着一个消息，说有家大型银行因为白银空头头寸亏太多，补不上保证金被强 制清算。 这消息说得有鼻子有眼，说这家银行是贵金属衍生品市场的巨头，持有数亿盎司的白银空头，上周五银 价突破70美元时就被要求追加23亿美元保证金，最后没凑够钱，周日凌晨被强制平仓。 保证金上调：压垮行情的"最后一根稻草" 这次暴跌不是没征兆，直接导火索就是美国芝加哥商品交易所突然上调交易保证金。 通俗点说，就是原来买一手黄金白银需要的本金变多了，黄金要多准备10%，白银多要13.6%，铂金更 夸张，直接多要23%。 本来很多人都是靠杠杆在市场里操作，本金突然不 ...

UNforex 1月3日讯（分析师Simon）这一周，行情本身并非最重要的变量，真正值得关注的是时间节 点。跨年阶段往往承载着资金重估、仓位切换与预期再定价的功能，黄金与白银在这一窗口期的表现， 更多反映的是市场态度而非单纯的多空博弈。 黄金的稳定与白银的波动，共同指向一个核心结论：市场并未选择结束，而是在为下一阶段行情重新校 准节奏。跨年周的震荡，不是终点，而是方向确认前的必要过程。 如果本轮行情真的接近尾声，市场更常见的表现应是资金快速撤离、价格放量下行。但现实情况是，无 论黄金还是白银，资金更多是在高位调整仓位，而非彻底退出。这种行为本身，就释放出偏中性的信 号。 在横盘时间有限的情况下，市场往往通过扩大波动来完成整理。本周黄金白银的走势，正符合这一特 征。价格上下反复，但关键结构并未被破坏，说明调整更多是"技术性的"，而非趋势性的。 随着市场逐步把目光投向2026年，关于利率、美元与全球资产配置的预期，已经开始提前反映在贵金属 定价中。本周的震荡，更像是新一轮定价逻辑的过渡区，而不是旧趋势的终点。 需要强调的是，假期阶段的行情并不适合作为最终判断依据。真正值得关注的，是假期结束后资金是否 重新放量、趋 ...

黄金周三早盘在4342企稳上涨，在上涨至4373/4374附近受阻转跌，午后急跌，最低跌至4274附近，随后又快速上涨起来，欧美盘维持在4300上方震荡，美 盘最高4353/4354附近，日线收出一根带有上下影线的阴线。 一、基本面 1、黄金上涨核心驱动因素 政策层面：美联储开启降息周期，美国10年期公债收益率年度下跌（2020年以来首次），降低了持有无息资产黄金的机会成本。 地缘政治：俄乌冲突持续升级，全球不确定性加剧，黄金的避险资产属性被强化，吸引投资者涌入。 需求支撑：各国央行（除俄罗斯因战争少量出售外）持续增持黄金，以多元化储备、对冲通胀和地缘风险；资金大量流入黄金ETF，为市场注入充足流动 性。 其他贵金属额外动力：供应短缺叠加工业需求爆发——白银受益于低库存、太阳能/电子等工业应用及美国将其列为重要矿产；铂金、钯金依托汽车催化剂 领域需求，供应中断与替代需求抵消了电动车转型的冲击。 2、黄金2025年末回调原因 年末贵金属价格回调属短期技术性调整，非牛市终结：一是芝加哥商品交易所（CME）多次提高期货保证金要求，引发交易商大规模获利了结；二是假期 交易流动性低下，放大了市场波动性。另外，矿商不愿卖 ...

在创纪录的涨势后，贵金属市场周四集体进入技术性调整，黄金在盘中触及历史高位后回落至4500美元下方，国内钯期货主力合约跌停，而白银在刷新历史 新高后仍保持高位震荡。 现货黄金目前跌至每盎司4479.38美元，此前曾触及4525.18美元的历史高点。钯金跌幅超过9%，从三年高位回撤。国内市场方面，广期所钯期货主力合约跌 停，一度跌约10%，铂期货主力合约一度跌超8%。 Kitco Metals高级分析师Jim Wyckoff表示，黄金市场正经历技术性调整和温和的获利了结。在低利率环境和不确定性时期，黄金通常表现良好。 美国总统特朗普周二表示，他希望下任美联储主席在市场表现良好时降低利率。美联储今年已降息三次，交易员目前预计明年将降息两次。地缘政治方面， 美国海岸警卫队正等待增援力量抵达委内瑞拉。 黄金获利回吐，技术面仍偏多 在突破4500美元关键关口后，黄金市场出现技术性调整。尽管短期回调，分析师对后市依然乐观。Wyckoff指出，黄金市场的下一个上行目标是4600美元/盎 司，预计在年底前达成，技术面依然呈现看涨态势。 Wyckoff预计白银的下一个上行目标是75美元/盎司，同样有望在年底前实现。白银的工业需 ...

Market Overview - A-shares experienced a volatile adjustment today, with all three major indices showing varying degrees of decline, influenced by global market conditions and local sentiment [1][3] - The market is reacting to fluctuating expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's potential interest rate cuts in December, which has impacted global liquidity expectations [1][3] - A report from Morgan Stanley projected a 6-7% growth in annual earnings for 2026, below the market consensus of 15%, indicating a need to adjust optimistic expectations for earnings recovery, particularly in traditional consumer and real estate sectors [1][3] Sector Performance - Energy metals and lithium battery sectors saw significant declines, with futures prices for lithium carbonate and other raw materials retreating, alongside expectations of rising social inventory, negatively affecting market sentiment [3] - The film and media sector experienced short-term profit-taking, while the precious metals sector's decline was primarily driven by overall commodity market sentiment [3] Technical Analysis - The Shanghai Composite Index is currently in a competitive phase around the 3900-point mark, with short-term support expected near 3850 points, but facing pressure at key psychological levels [3] - The market's ability to break through the 4000-point threshold will depend on further positive stimuli, with current adjustments viewed as a healthy market behavior [3] Global Influences - The release of signals from the Bank of Japan regarding potential interest rate hikes has contributed to a general decline in major global stock markets, further suppressing risk appetite in the A-share market [3]

Core Viewpoint - The market is experiencing a technical adjustment rather than a panic phase, with individual stocks adjusting by 10-20%, which is common after periods of high valuation [1][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - Global markets are showing a weak rebound, while the Hong Kong stock market is rebounding strongly [1]. - The market is approaching the 3800-point level, suggesting that there is no need for excessive pessimism [1]. Group 2: Investment Strategy - Investors are encouraged to maintain confidence and patience, selecting preferred stocks for future gains [1]. - The recent subscription content "Wei Wei Dao Lai" provides tailored advice for different client types and operational strategies [1].

Market Overview - The global market is experiencing a significant downturn, with major asset classes, including stocks, cryptocurrencies, and gold, facing substantial declines [4][5][10]. - The U.S. stock market has seen a notable drop, with the Dow Jones down 1.18%, Nasdaq down 0.84%, and S&P 500 down 0.92% on a recent "Black Monday" [5]. U.S. Federal Reserve Impact - The Federal Reserve's recent shift towards a more hawkish stance has been identified as a primary driver of the market turmoil, with a decrease in the probability of interest rate cuts [11][13]. - The market's expectations for a rate cut in December have significantly reversed, impacting global liquidity and asset prices [11][13]. Cryptocurrency Market - Bitcoin has seen a drastic decline from $126,000 in October to below $90,000, erasing all gains for 2025 and contributing to a growing sense of panic in the market [5][10]. Asian Markets - The Asia-Pacific stock markets have also suffered, with Japan's Nikkei 225 index dropping 3.22%, marking its largest single-day decline since April [8][10]. - The Shanghai Composite Index and Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index have also experienced consecutive declines [8]. Gold Market Dynamics - Gold, typically viewed as a safe-haven asset, has not performed as expected during this downturn, with prices falling below $4,000 per ounce [10][29]. - The tightening liquidity in the market has led investors to sell gold to raise cash, causing it to move in tandem with riskier assets [29][31]. Nvidia's Earnings Report - Nvidia's upcoming earnings report is anticipated to be a significant market event, as it represents a key indicator for the AI sector and broader market sentiment [15][20]. - Concerns about Nvidia's ability to meet market expectations have led to increased short-selling activity among major investors [17][18]. Japan's Economic Concerns - Japan's recent political statements regarding Taiwan have raised geopolitical tensions, negatively impacting its stock market and tourism sector [18][19]. - The Japanese government is considering a large-scale stimulus plan, but concerns about national debt and economic stability persist [18][19]. A-Share Market Outlook - The A-share market is under pressure due to external factors, including the U.S. Federal Reserve's policies and the performance of global markets [26][28]. - Analysts suggest that while the A-share market is currently weak, there may be opportunities for recovery as year-end strategies come into play [28]. Conclusion - The current market environment is characterized by volatility driven by multiple factors, including Federal Reserve policies, geopolitical tensions, and corporate earnings expectations [33]. - Long-term investment strategies should focus on identifying quality assets that can withstand short-term fluctuations [33].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the recent fluctuations in gold and silver prices are influenced by macroeconomic factors, including the end of the U.S. government shutdown and ongoing economic uncertainties [2][3] - The Shanghai gold futures price reported at 953.20 CNY per gram, with a decline of 0.29%, while the opening price was 967.20 CNY per gram, showing a range between 952.00 CNY and 967.96 CNY during the trading session [1] - The New York gold futures contract decreased by 0.5%, closing at 4,194.50 USD per ounce, while the Shanghai gold futures contract saw a slight increase of 0.11% [3] Group 2 - The U.S. government shutdown's end is expected to negatively impact the fourth-quarter GDP by 1.5%, contributing to a perception of slowing economic growth [2] - The Federal Reserve's internal divisions regarding interest rate policies are evident, with some officials advocating for maintaining restrictive policies while others see reasons for potential rate cuts [2] - The trend of de-dollarization is gaining momentum, as Europe seeks alternatives to the dollar, which may further enhance the demand for precious metals as a safe haven [2]

Group 1 - The State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE) plans to introduce nine trade facilitation policies to support cross-border trade and emerging business models, including expanding the pilot scope for high-level cross-border trade openness and optimizing foreign exchange fund settlement for new trade entities [1] - Analysts believe these measures will reduce cross-border funding costs for enterprises and enhance foreign exchange management flexibility and international competitiveness [1] - Recent concentrated selling in the precious metals market saw New York gold futures drop by 3.15% to $3997 per ounce, with spot gold briefly falling below $3970 [1] Group 2 - A-share gold concept stocks fell over 1.6%, with notable declines in companies like Tongling Nonferrous Metals and Shengda Resources, while domestic gold prices also retreated [2] - The U.S. dollar index decreased by 0.17% to 104.78, with limited fluctuations in the overall foreign exchange market as investors await interest rate decisions from major central banks [2] - Analysts suggest that recent fluctuations in gold prices are a technical adjustment, with support levels identified between $3974 and $4042 [2] Group 3 - The U.S. government shutdown has delayed key economic data, complicating the Federal Reserve's ability to assess employment and inflation [3] - Market expectations indicate a nearly 99% probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut, with Powell's subsequent statements likely to influence market direction [3] - The interplay of policy expectations and market sentiment is currently a focal point for capital movements, with the ability of gold to maintain the $4000 level dependent on market interpretations of Federal Reserve policy signals [3]