高盛闭门会-脉动中国-2026 政策预期 20251125 摘要 中国财政支出增速低于预期，因出口增长使全年 5%增长目标可期，财 政主动预留明年支出空间，导致 10 月广义财政意外收紧，但维持 2025 年四季度 GDP 增长 4.5%的预测，全年增速 5%，部分政策空间预留至 2026 年，实现开门红。 10 月社会零售总额显示，化妆品和珠宝因双十一提前环比加速，预计 11 月回落。以旧换新补贴下的家电、汽车销售额已落后于其他品类，表 明价格促销和临时补贴无法持续推动耐用品消费，房价下跌和劳动力市 场疲软抑制消费意愿。 中国经济政策明年重点是稳内需、支持高新技术制造业和稳定房地产市 场，将在政治局会议及中央经济工作会议上讨论定调。地方和全国两会 将在 2026 年初召开，公布年度增长目标及五年规划关键量化指标，对 未来经济走向至关重要。 劳动力市场虽略有改善但仍处历史低位，限制居民消费复苏。9 月消费 者信心小幅改善，可能受股市影响，高端消费市场出现复苏迹象。整体 居民消费偏弱，需关注 2026 年如何刺激消费。 Q&A 近期市场对中国房地产政策的预期是什么？ 市场普遍预期中国将出台一些温和的、因城施策的 ...

全 GL AN 2 全球经 LOBAL ND INV 20 经济展 L ECO VESTM 02 展望及 ONOMI MENT S 6 投资策 IC OU STRAT 策略 UTLOO TEGY K 格物 UNC CHA 物致知， COVER DE ART NEW 成势在人 EEPER INS HORIZON 人 SIGHTS, NS icbci.co om.hk 序 言 Preface 王文彬 Wenbin Wang Ph.D., CFA, FRM 董事长 Chairman 穿越周期 洞见新机 风禾尽起，时机交替。回望 2025 年，全球经济于多重变局中迎来关键转折。美联储降息周期再度开 启，全球关税博弈峰回路转，然全球地缘冲突迭起、科技竞合加剧、供应链重构深化、美国财政约束趋 紧等挑战突出。全球经济航行于曙光隐现却暗礁潜藏的未知海域，风险资产于高估值区间内震荡加剧。 中国经济于复杂环境中应变克难、稳健前行，在"十四五"圆满收官之际，以高质量发展奏响稳中有进 的昂扬主旋律。香港资本市场强势复苏，恒生指数全年涨幅领跑全球，IPO 募资额重登全球首位，国际 债券发行规模亚洲领先，尽显东方明珠蓬勃活力。 破立相生 ...

一、期权有什么好处？期权交易对投资者有哪些优势？ 期权提供更多的机会和策略，期权交易中，无论是期货价格处于牛市、熊市或盘整，均可以为投资者提供获利的机会。期货交 易只能是基于方向性的。而期权的交易策略既可以基于期货价格的变动方向，也可以进行基于期货价格波动率进行交易，下文 介绍做期权的好处对于投资者友好吗？ 期权作为金融市场中的一种重要工具，为投资者带来了诸多好处和优势。 首先，期权提供了灵活性和多样性。投资者可以根据自身的风险偏好和市场预期，选择不同的期权合约和策略。例如，买入看 涨期权可以在预期标的资产价格上涨时获利，而买入看跌期权则能在价格下跌时获益。这种多样化的选择使得投资者能够适应 各种市场环境。 其次，期权有助于风险管理。与期货合约不同，期权的买方最大损失仅限于支付的权利金。这意味着投资者可以通过购买期权 来对冲现有投资组合的风险，而不必担心出现巨大的亏损。 再者，期权能够提高资金使用效率。相较于直接购买标的资产，购买期权所需的资金通常较少。以较小的成本控制较大价值的 资产，为投资者提供了以小博大的机会。 此外，期权还具有策略丰富性的特点。投资者可以通过组合不同的期权合约，构建复杂的投资策略，如蝶 ...

申万宏源策略 【申万宏源策略】双宽驭险，中期伏波——申万宏源2026年全球资产配置投资策略 原创 阅读全文 ...

Group 1 - The article discusses a strategy that has yielded an average annual return of 55% over the past years, with the author experiencing a doubling of their initial investment of 500,000 to just over 1 million this year, coinciding with a bull market [1] - The author expresses a sense of dissatisfaction despite the profits, feeling that the growth is slow and contemplating the long-term goal of achieving 20 million for retirement, which would require a 20-fold increase over 7 years [1] - Concerns are raised about the potential for significant drawdowns in the strategy, highlighting the uncertainty and emotional strain associated with long-term investing [1] Group 2 - There is a sentiment that a 55% annual return is perceived as slow compared to other high-risk investment opportunities, such as those in the cryptocurrency space, which can offer returns of 500% to 5000% [2][4] - Suggestions are made to consider leveraging investments to accelerate the path to retirement, indicating a preference for higher-risk strategies to achieve quicker financial freedom [3] - The article emphasizes the importance of having multiple strategies to ensure certainty in returns, as relying on a single strategy can lead to significant risks and emotional distress during market fluctuations [5] Group 3 - The discussion includes the notion that the pursuit of future wealth can sometimes serve as a distraction from current dissatisfaction with life, suggesting that individuals should focus on addressing present issues rather than solely fixating on retirement goals [7][8] - It is noted that the current market conditions may not sustain the same level of returns in the future, indicating a need for realistic expectations regarding long-term investment performance [9] - The article concludes with reflections on the nature of investment returns, suggesting that the focus should be on the journey and personal growth rather than just the end financial goal [14]

Core Insights - Warren Buffett's recent letter to shareholders marks his final communication in the role of CEO of Berkshire Hathaway, although he will continue to write Thanksgiving letters to shareholders and the public [1] - Buffett plans to accelerate donations to his children's foundations while retaining a significant amount of Class A shares until trust in successor Greg Abel matches the trust previously held in himself and Charlie Munger [1] - Berkshire Hathaway's Class A and B shares have risen nearly 10% this year, outperforming most defensive stocks but lagging behind the overall market [1] Financial Performance - As of September 30, Berkshire Hathaway holds a record $381.6 billion in cash, indicating a robust balance sheet and cautious investment strategy [1] - The company has reduced stock holdings for 12 consecutive quarters, reflecting Buffett's caution regarding the current high-valuation market [1] Personal Philosophy - Buffett shares life lessons, stating that the "second half" of life can be better than the "first half," encouraging learning from mistakes and emphasizing that it is never too late to improve [1] - He highlights that life is not solely about money, asserting that greatness comes from helping others, which in turn benefits the world [1]

Core Insights - Warren Buffett's annual letters to Berkshire Hathaway shareholders have become essential reading in the investment community, providing deep insights into his investment strategies, stock ownership philosophies, and company culture [1][2][3] - The letters serve as a classic resource for investors, offering valuable lessons and methodologies that can help avoid common pitfalls in investment and financial management [1] Summary by Year - The article compiles Buffett's letters from 1957 to 2024, highlighting the evolution of his investment thoughts over the decades [1][2][3] - Each letter reflects Buffett's perspectives on market conditions, investment opportunities, and the principles guiding Berkshire Hathaway's operations [1][2][3]

Core Insights - The article discusses the recent surge in the A-share market, with the Shanghai Composite Index surpassing 4000 points for the first time in ten years, leading to increased public interest in stocks and funds [3][4] - It emphasizes the importance of understanding personal financial situations and investment choices rather than simply following market trends [4][6] - The three core asset classes—stocks, bonds, and real estate—are highlighted as foundational to modern economic operations, with each serving distinct roles in wealth creation, preservation, and security [5][8] Investment Strategies - The article outlines the critical decision of how much money to allocate to stocks, which should be based on individual family financial structures rather than market conditions [10][11] - It provides guidelines for investment proportions based on risk tolerance and experience, suggesting that families with no prior investment experience should start with a lower percentage of stock investments [16][17][18] - Strategies for navigating market volatility include monitoring valuation metrics like historical PE ratios and observing market sentiment through social discussions and media coverage [21][22] Asset Allocation - A balanced investment approach is recommended, combining stocks, bonds, and real estate to create a robust portfolio that can withstand market fluctuations [24] - Bonds are suggested as a safe haven during high market valuations, providing stable income and acting as a hedge against stock market downturns [25] - Real estate investment is discussed in terms of identifying value opportunities and managing cash flow to optimize returns while minimizing financial burdens [26][28] Educational Initiatives - The article promotes a new investment strategy course focusing on the three core asset classes, aiming to provide practical knowledge tailored to the current Chinese investment landscape [29][30] - The course will cover essential topics such as stock investment strategies, bond advantages, and real estate value retention, led by experienced industry professionals [31][36]

此次投资策略报告会的成功举办，为投资者搭建了一个与行业专家近距离交流的平台。兴业银行天津分 行将始终以客户需求为中心，致力于为客户提供专业、全面金融服务的理念。 10月31日，兴业银行天津分行成功举办了以"远见·启新"为主题的2025年投资策略报告会。会议特别邀 请天弘基金首席策略分析师刘宁先生、兴业研究首席商品研究员付晓芸女士两位行业资深专家，为到场 的220余位客户带来一场兼具深度与前瞻性的投资策略分享。兴业银行天津分行党委委员、副行长徐川 出席报告会。 未来，兴业银行天津分行也将始终秉承"一流银行，百年兴业"的发展愿景，坚守"真诚服务，相伴成 长"的服务理念，整合集团专家资源，为客户提供全方位、多场景、定制化、全生命周期的服务，与客 户携手共进，互惠共赢！ 报告会上，天弘基金首席策略分析师刘宁先生从以《长牛 or 快牛，国内经济与大类资产策略》为主 题，从宏观经济、政策导向等多维度切入，深入探讨了未来国内经济的增长动力与潜在挑战，并针对权 益市场配置逻辑与策略给予了专业建议。 兴业研究首席商品研究员付晓芸女士聚焦外汇与贵金属市场，以《重构与韧性，外汇与贵金属市场展 望》为主题，通过分析全球经济格局变化、 ...

Summary of Morgan Stanley A-Share Market Sentiment Indicator (MSASI) 2.0 Company/Industry - **Company**: Morgan Stanley - **Industry**: A-share Market in China Core Points and Arguments 1. **Introduction of MSASI 2.0**: Morgan Stanley has relaunched the A-share market sentiment indicator (MSASI 2.0) to better reflect investor behavior and sentiment trends, now based on 12 updated metrics [2][17][23] 2. **Historical Context**: The original MSASI was launched in March 2019 to track weekly sentiment changes in the A-share market. The need for an update arose due to changes in data availability and market structure [2][14] 3. **Expanded Metrics**: The new MSASI includes 12 indicators covering trading volume, market sentiment, short-selling sentiment, capital flows, and fundamental performance. Four new metrics have been added, including new account registrations on the Shanghai Stock Exchange and foreign capital inflows into the CSI 300 [2][17][23] 4. **Noise Reduction and Insight Enhancement**: Each indicator is processed using a 100-day rolling min-max normalization to reduce noise and highlight mid-term sentiment changes [2][27] 5. **Two Versions of MSASI**: The index has two versions: - **MSASI (Weighted)**: A real-time composite index ranging from 0 to 100 - **MSASI (Weighted 1-Month Moving Average)**: A one-month moving average that emphasizes broader trends [2][35] 6. **Strategy Framework**: The MSASI can identify sentiment extremes, with strategies based on the 1-month moving average: - Short the CSI 300 when the index reaches ≥78% for 70 trading days - Long the CSI 300 when the index drops to ≤22% for the same duration - Historical backtesting shows cumulative returns of 31% for shorting and 91% for going long, with hit rates of 60% and 67% respectively [3][44] 7. **Recent Performance**: As of late October 2025, the MSASI had reached a high but subsequently retreated, indicating a return to normal levels from an overheated state. A balanced strategy focusing on earnings quality and fundamental resilience is recommended [13][39] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content 1. **Data Correlation**: Historical data shows a high correlation (98%) between the new account registrations and the previously used "new investor registrations" metric, justifying the replacement [23] 2. **Market Sentiment Indicators**: The MSASI includes various indicators such as: - A-share turnover - Margin transaction balances - Relative Strength Index (RSI) for the CSI 300 - Number of limit-up A-shares - Backwardation in CSI 300 futures [20][52] 3. **Methodological Enhancements**: The methodology has been refined to ensure that all indicators are comparable and reflect mid-term sentiment changes rather than daily fluctuations [50][56] 4. **Future Implications**: The MSASI serves as a tool for investors to identify early turning points in market sentiment, which can lead to investment opportunities [14][40] This comprehensive summary captures the key aspects of the MSASI 2.0 report, highlighting its significance in understanding the A-share market sentiment and potential investment strategies.