专题：聚焦美股2025年第四季度财报 通用电气能源公司上调年度收入预期 通用电气能源周三上调了其年度营收预期，原因是数据中心蓬勃的电力需求推动了其电力和电气化部门 订单的强劲增长。 在电力和电气化部门增长的带动下，该公司本季度的订单额达到593亿美元，与去年同期相比增长了 34%。 通用电气能源预计2026年的营收将达到440亿至450亿美元，相较于此前的预期为410亿至420亿美元。 电气化部门的核心利润为5.05亿美元，比去年同期增长78.4%；电力部门的核心利润为9.71亿美元，增 长近20%。 根据LSEG编制的数据，分析师平均预计该公司2026年的年收入将达到419.7亿美元。 责任编辑：刘明亮 在电力和电气化部门增长的带动下，该公司本季度的订单额达到593亿美元，与去年同期相比增长了 34%。 电气化部门的核心利润为5.05亿美元，比去年同期增长78.4%；电力部门的核心利润为9.71亿美元，增 长近20%。 根据LSEG编制的数据，分析师平均预计该公司2026年的年收入将达到419.7亿美元。 责任编辑：刘明亮 专题：聚焦美股2025年第四季度财报 通用电气能源公司上调年度收入预期 通用电气能源 ...

数据中心电力需求带动中小燃机订单 20251224 摘要 贝克休斯公司通过与通用电气合并及后续股权变动，已成为燃气轮机市 场的重要参与者，其产品线涵盖重型、航改和工业燃气轮机，总销量超 过 3,400 台。2024 年归母净利润显著提升，达 29.79 亿美元，得益于 工业与能源技术业务的强劲增长，包括燃气轮机相关资产。 美国数据中心电力需求激增，受限于可再生能源发展瓶颈，天然气发电 成为主要选择。燃气轮机因其高效性成为关键技术，SP Global 预计新 增数据中心供电的 40%将采用联合循环燃气轮机，容量系数高达 70%，显示出其稳定性和高利用率优势。 美国数据中心市场规模庞大，2024 年已装机容量为 25 吉瓦，预计 2025-2030 年新增需求为 20 吉瓦，潜在需求 35 吉瓦，总计 55 吉瓦。 全球数据中心新增装机量约为 125 吉瓦，若 40%由燃气轮机提供，按 每吉瓦 7.5 亿美元计算，市场价值将达 375 亿美元。 燃气轮机市场由通用电气、三菱重工和西门子能源主导，合计市场份额 达 85%。贝克休斯占比相对较低（4%），专注于中小型燃气轮机。通 用电气订单充足，但交付能力受中上游供应 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Views of the Report - In 2026, the global alumina supply is expected to be in surplus, with prices under long - term pressure and the futures trading range likely to drop to 2400 - 3000 yuan/ton [2][59][170] - The global aluminum supply in 2026 is expected to grow at a rate of 1.4%, with overseas becoming an important growth point. Aluminum prices are expected to be strong in the medium - to - long term, especially in the first half of 2026, with the upper limit to be watched at 25000 yuan/ton [2][171] - The supply and demand of cast aluminum are in a delicate balance. Its price follows cost fluctuations and there are seasonal and macro - event - based arbitrage opportunities [2][120][172] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Review - In 2025, alumina showed a weak and volatile pattern, with prices falling from around 4000 yuan/ton at the beginning of the year to a low of 2665 yuan/ton, then rebounding and finally fluctuating weakly near the cost line [9] - In 2025, the electrolytic aluminum price generally showed an upward trend, with some fluctuations due to tariff policies. There were also opportunities for intra - month spread arbitrage and cross - market arbitrage [10] - Cast aluminum futures were launched on June 10, 2025. Its price showed an upward trend, and the spread with Shanghai aluminum changed during the year [11][12] 2. Macroeconomic Situation Overseas - The Fed may be hesitant to cut interest rates in the first quarter of 2026. The US economy may continue to expand in the third quarter, but inflation concerns may rise at the end of the year. The eurozone's inflation is approaching the target, and its monetary policy will remain stable [29][33][34] Domestic - China is expected to achieve its 2025 GDP growth target of 5%. In 2026, the GDP target is expected to be set at 5%. Fiscal policy will be proactive, and monetary policy will remain loose [35] 3. Alumina Adequate Imported Ore in 2026 - In 2025, the supply of bauxite was abundant, and the price of imported bauxite decreased. In 2026, the supply of bauxite is expected to be sufficient, with domestic and imported ore totaling about 280 million tons, and the price of imported ore may decline slightly [51][53][55] High Unreleased Alumina Capacity at Home and Abroad - In 2025, the alumina capacity was in surplus, and the price decreased. In 2026, the new domestic and overseas alumina capacity is expected to exceed 20 million tons, and the demand growth is lower than the supply growth [56][57] Overseas Alumina with Cost Advantage Flows into China - In 2025, China changed from a net importer to a net exporter of alumina. In 2026, China is expected to return to a net - importing pattern because of the cost advantage of overseas alumina [58] Increased Surplus Pressure and Cost - Based Price Competition - In 2026, the supply of alumina is expected to be in surplus, and the price will be under long - term pressure, with the futures trading range likely to drop [59] 4. Electrolytic Aluminum Limited Domestic Capacity Growth Space - In 2025, China's electrolytic aluminum capacity approached the ceiling. In 2026, the domestic capacity growth is limited, and the supply (production + net import) is expected to be about 46.78 million tons, with a growth rate of about 1.01% [87][88][89] Indonesia Contributes Main Incremental Space, but Power Situation Needs Attention - In 2025, the overseas electrolytic aluminum capacity increased by 1 million tons. In 2026, the overseas capacity is expected to increase by 1.2 million tons, and the production is expected to be about 30.6 million tons, with a growth rate of 2% [90][91][92] 5. Cast Aluminum Tight Scrap Aluminum Provides Long - Term Cost Support for Cast Aluminum - In 2025, the supply of domestic scrap aluminum was tight. In 2026, the domestic scrap aluminum supply is expected to be about 16.4 million tons, with a growth rate of 21% [112][114][115] Low Operating Rate of Cast Aluminum Alloy and Limited Capacity Expansion - In 2025, the operating rate of the cast aluminum alloy industry was low, and the capacity expansion slowed down. In 2026, the aluminum alloy is expected to maintain a net inflow [116][117][118] Cost and Profit of Cast Aluminum Alloy - The cost of ADC12 is mainly composed of scrap aluminum, silicon, copper, natural gas, and other expenses. In 2026, the cost of cast aluminum is expected to remain firm [119] Consumption Balance and Views of Cast Aluminum Alloy - The supply of cast aluminum has excess built - in capacity, but the tight scrap aluminum and low profit limit the capacity expansion. The consumption of each segment is growing. The price of cast aluminum follows cost fluctuations, and there are arbitrage opportunities [120][121][172] 6. Consumption End Challenges Remain in Aluminum Product Exports in 2026 - In 2025, China's aluminum product exports decreased. In 2026, there are still challenges, but efforts are being made to diversify the market [136] Real Estate - In 2025, the real estate market was at the bottom. In 2026, it is expected to continue to adjust, with the decline in new construction area narrowing slightly and the decline in completion area narrowing [137] Power - In 2025, the investment in the power grid increased. In 2026 - 2030, the annual investment in the power grid is expected to be about 75 billion yuan, and the aluminum consumption in the power sector will increase by about 650,000 tons [138][139] New Energy Sector - In 2025, the new - energy installation increased. In 2026, the photovoltaic installation is expected to decline, but the wind - power installation is expected to increase, offsetting part of the reduction in aluminum consumption [141][142][143] Automobile - In 2025, the automobile market developed well. In 2026, the domestic automobile sales are expected to increase slightly, and the aluminum consumption of new - energy vehicles is expected to increase by about 576,000 tons [144] Energy Storage - In 2025, the global energy - storage installation increased significantly. In 2026, the domestic and global energy - storage new - installation is expected to reach 17.2GW and 39.9GW respectively, with the aluminum consumption increasing [145][147] Data Center - In 2026, many large - scale data - center projects are planned to be built, which will drive the demand for aluminum [149] 7. Global Aluminum Supply Still in Shortage in 2026 - In 2026, the global electrolytic aluminum supply is expected to be 74.98 million tons, with a growth rate of 1.4%, and the consumption is expected to be 75.5 million tons, still in shortage [170] 8. Market Outlook - Alumina prices are expected to be under long - term pressure, with the futures trading range at 2400 - 3000 yuan/ton. Electrolytic aluminum prices are expected to be strong in the medium - to - long term, especially in the first half of 2026. Cast aluminum prices follow cost fluctuations [170][171][172]

Group 1: AI's Impact on US Electricity Demand - The overall electricity consumption growth rate in the US is relatively low, with a projected total electricity consumption of 41,104 billion kWh in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 2.5% [13] - The electricity elasticity coefficient for the US is expected to be 0.77 in 2024, indicating a long-term trend of decreasing energy consumption per unit of GDP, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of only 0.38% from 2008 to 2024 [18] - The share of electricity consumption from data centers in the US has been increasing, reaching 4.4% in 2023, with a significant rise from 1.9% in 2018 [23] Group 2: Supply Side Dynamics - Natural gas is currently the primary source of electricity generation in the US, with a projected share of 43% in 2024, while coal and nuclear power are on a downward trend [29] - The installed capacity growth rates for various energy sources in 2024 are projected as follows: coal (-2.3%), natural gas (-0.2%), nuclear (2.9%), solar (34.1%), and wind (10.5%) [24] - Recent policies have shifted from supporting renewable energy to tightening regulations, particularly affecting solar and wind energy projects [36] Group 3: Future Projections for Data Center Electricity Demand - By 2028, US data center electricity consumption is expected to range between 325-580 TWh, accounting for 6.7%-12% of total US electricity consumption [42] - The compound annual growth rate for data center electricity demand in the US is projected to be around 23% from 2024 to 2030, with an expected total consumption of 606 TWh by 2030 [52] - The additional power capacity required for data centers by 2030 is estimated to be between 9-100 GW, depending on growth scenarios [58] Group 4: Regional Disparities and Challenges - Data centers are highly concentrated in states like Virginia, Texas, and California, leading to significant regional disparities in electricity load, with Virginia's data centers consuming 25.6% of the state's total electricity [71] - The current electricity supply system is a major source of data center outages, with power system failures accounting for 52% of global data center incidents [76] - The interconnection capacity of regional power grids in the US is insufficient to match the growing electricity load, particularly in the eastern regions driven by AI data centers [86]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Aluminum: Range-bound oscillation [1] - Alumina: Continuing to find the bottom [1] - Cast aluminum alloy: Following electrolytic aluminum [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - With the non - linear growth of AI computing power demand, in 2026, investors should shift their focus from "chips" to "removing bottlenecks", and the cumulative power shortage in US data centers from 2025 - 2028 will reach 47 gigawatts [3] - Most economies have very limited room for further monetary policy easing. The Fed is expected to cut interest rates only twice by the end of 2026, and the federal funds rate will remain in the range of 3.25% - 3.5% until 2027. The eurozone and Canada are expected to have no further room for interest rate cuts, while Japan is expected to steadily tighten its monetary policy [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Aluminum** - The closing price of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract was 21,910, with a change of 445 compared to T - 5 [1] - The closing price of the LME Aluminum 3M was 2,864, with a change of - 25 compared to T - 1 [1] - The trading volume of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract was 177,992, a decrease of 77,939 compared to T - 1 [1] - The LME Aluminum 3M trading volume was 19,748, a decrease of 1,971 compared to T - 1 [1] - The LME aluminum cash - 3M spread was - 25.95, with a change of 4.50 compared to T - 1 [1] - **Alumina** - The closing price of the Shanghai Alumina main contract was 2,670, a decrease of 57 compared to T - 5 [1] - The trading volume of the Shanghai Alumina main contract was 177,845, a decrease of 64,249 compared to T - 1 [1] - **Aluminum Alloy** - The closing price of the aluminum alloy main contract was 21,095, an increase of 390 compared to T - 5 [1] - The trading volume of the aluminum alloy main contract was 5,751, an increase of 1,657 compared to T - 1 [1] 3.2 Spot Market - **Aluminum** - The domestic aluminum ingot social inventory was 591,000 tons, a decrease of 13,000 tons compared to T - 5 [1] - The LME aluminum ingot inventory was 535,900 tons, a decrease of 2,000 tons compared to T - 1 [1] - The electrolytic aluminum enterprise profit and loss was 5,283.92, a decrease of 245.86 compared to T - 1 [1] - The aluminum spot import profit and loss was - 1,780.07, a decrease of 164.28 compared to T - 1 [1] - **Alumina** - The domestic average alumina price was 2,855, a decrease of 66 compared to T - 5 [1] - The alumina price at Lianyungang's arrival port was 338 US dollars per ton, a decrease of 2 compared to T - 5 [1] - **Aluminum Alloy** - The theoretical profit of ADC12 was - 235, a decrease of 76 compared to T - 5 [1] - The three - place inventory total was 49,410, a decrease of 494 compared to T - 1 [1] 3.3 Other Information - The trend strength of aluminum, alumina, and aluminum alloy was all 0, indicating a neutral trend [3]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The North American power supply is facing shortages primarily due to an aging electrical grid and increased power demand driven by the rapid growth of data centers since the launch of ChatGPT 4.0 in November 2022. This has led to a significant rise in energy requirements, particularly for continuous power supply in data centers [2][4]. Key Companies and Their Performance Caterpillar - Caterpillar reported optimistic performance with a third-quarter revenue exceeding expectations, driven by an 18% growth in its energy and transportation segment, and a 26% increase in North America. The company plans to expand its gas turbine and diesel engine production capacity by 2.5 times and 2 times, respectively, by 2030, indicating sustained demand in North America [5]. Longyuan Donggu - Longyuan Donggu, a supplier of engine components, is expected to benefit from strong heavy truck sales and expansion into passenger vehicle markets. The company anticipates a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) exceeding 30% over the next 3-5 years, with an attractive valuation [2][23]. Caterpillar's Supplier - Linde - Linde, a key supplier for Caterpillar, is projected to achieve revenues of 250 million yuan in 2025, with a compound annual growth rate of over 30% expected as it capitalizes on new orders related to gas turbines and diesel engines [6][7]. KOTAI - KOTAI is the only OEM capable of exporting diesel generators to Europe and North America. The company has secured 70 orders in North America and expects to deliver around 500 units by 2026, significantly enhancing its profitability due to high margins in the European market [8][9][10]. Yinglian Co. - Yinglian Co., a leading supplier of gas turbine blades, is positioned to benefit from the tight demand in the North American market, presenting long-term investment value despite its current valuation not being fully recognized [14]. Jerry Holdings - Jerry Holdings has established a systematic presence in the North American power generation sector, generating revenue from gas turbine projects. The company expects sales of $70 million to $80 million in 2025 and aims to expand its leasing scale in North America [16][21]. Market Dynamics - The gas industry has entered a price increase cycle since 2021, primarily due to reduced turbine blade casting capacity during the pandemic, which has not yet recovered. This has led to delivery issues for aircraft engines, benefiting companies like Yingliu, which supplies components for GE's LEAP series engines [12][13]. Future Growth Potential - Jerry Holdings is expected to see significant growth in its gas turbine business, with projections of over 50% CAGR in the next 3-4 years. The company’s new orders have reached a historical high, and it is well-positioned for future expansion in both domestic and international markets [19][22]. Conclusion - The North American energy sector is experiencing a shift due to increased demand from data centers, leading to growth opportunities for companies involved in gas turbines and diesel engines. Key players like Caterpillar, KOTAI, and Jerry Holdings are well-positioned to capitalize on these trends, with strong growth forecasts and strategic expansions planned for the coming years [1][2][5][19].

Core Insights - The A-share market has shown strong performance in sectors related to "electricity," with many stocks in the power equipment industry reaching historical highs this week [1] - The surge in power equipment stocks is driven by increased electricity demand from data centers, policy support, and a resonance of domestic and international demand [1][2] Group 1: Market Performance - This week, 94 stocks reached historical highs, a decrease from 107 the previous week, with a total of 980 stocks achieving this milestone since the beginning of the year [1] - Among the 94 stocks, the power equipment, electronics, and machinery equipment sectors had the highest concentration of new highs, with 22, 14, and 14 stocks respectively [1] - The top stocks by trading volume this week included Sungrow Power Supply (1000.85 billion), TBEA (694.69 billion), and others, indicating strong market activity [3] Group 2: Sector Drivers - The demand for electricity in data centers is expected to increase due to the accelerated development of AI and the deployment of intelligent computing centers, which will drive the need for electrical equipment [2][3] - The photovoltaic and lithium battery sectors are experiencing improved supply expectations and demand, with potential price turning points on the horizon [2] - Breakthroughs in solid-state battery technology are expanding the development space for new energy, enhancing market optimism for new energy equipment demand [3] Group 3: Stock Highlights - The stocks with the highest trading volumes among the 94 that reached historical highs included Sungrow Power Supply, TBEA, and others, with significant trading amounts [3] - The total market capitalization of the stocks reaching historical highs has decreased, with only 5 stocks exceeding 100 billion in market capitalization compared to 14 the previous week [5] - Notable stock price increases this week included Jingquan Technology (48.41%), TBEA (40.06%), and others, reflecting strong performance in the market [6]

Core Viewpoint - The energy storage sector is experiencing significant growth, driven by increasing electricity demand from data centers, which are becoming a critical variable in the energy system transition [1] Group 1: Data Center Electricity Demand - In 2023, electricity consumption by data centers in the U.S. accounted for 4.4% of the national total generation, projected to rise to 8% by 2028 [1] - Over the next five years, electricity demand from U.S. data centers is expected to grow by 50% to 150% [1] - Canada's data center electricity demand is anticipated to increase from 750 MW to 1160 MW by 2029 [1] Group 2: Energy Storage Market Dynamics - Domestic compensation electricity prices are gradually being introduced, leading to an unexpected surge in large-scale storage demand, with a projected growth of 30-40% in the coming years [1] - The U.S. is experiencing an unexpected rush in installations this year, with stable growth expected in the following years [1] - Emerging markets in Europe and the Middle East are anticipated to see a significant explosion in large-scale storage demand, contributing to sustained high growth [1] Group 3: Global Energy Storage Projections - The global energy storage installation is projected to have a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 30-50% from 2025 to 2028 [1] - The recovery of shipments in Europe following the completion of household storage depletion is leading to an explosion in industrial and commercial storage demand [1] - The demand for cost-competitive solar storage in emerging markets is expected to continue, further driving the energy storage sector [1]

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - **Industry Focus**: Gas Turbine Industry - **Electricity Demand Surge**: The electricity consumption of data centers in the U.S. is expected to reach 325 to 580 TWh by 2028, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 27%. Globally, data center electricity demand is projected to exceed 1,000 TWh by 2030, putting significant pressure on the power grid [1][3] Key Insights and Arguments - **Gas Turbines as Optimal Solution**: Gas turbines are favored due to their short construction cycle, quick startup, and stable operation, aligning well with the 2-4 year construction cycle of data centers. The approval process for gas turbine projects is approximately 10 months, significantly shorter than wind and solar projects [1][5] - **Global Gas Turbine Market Growth**: In 2023, global gas turbine market sales are estimated at 40-44 GW. Mitsubishi Heavy Industries anticipates an average sales volume of 60 GW from 2024 to 2026. In Q2 of this year, global orders increased by 38% year-over-year to 21 GW, with North America leading due to data center demand [1][6][7] - **Major Manufacturers' Expansion Plans**: Key players like GE, Siemens, and Mitsubishi Heavy Industries are experiencing significant order growth and have announced expansion plans, indicating confidence in sustained industry growth. Mitsubishi plans to double its production capacity in the next two years, while Siemens and GE aim to increase production capacity by 50% [1][7] Market Opportunities - **Domestic Replacement Opportunities**: The trend of deindustrialization in Europe and the U.S. presents opportunities for domestic companies to enter the global gas turbine supply chain, particularly in high-end casting and forging components [1][8] - **Core Component Market**: High-value components such as hot-end turbine blades and rotor shafts are currently dominated by overseas companies. However, domestic firms like Diwei and Yingliu are expected to gain market share due to their technological advantages [2][8][9] Company-Specific Developments - **Diwei's Competitive Edge**: Diwei is focusing on the production of high-end forged components for gas turbines and has established supply relationships with major clients like Baker Hughes and Caterpillar. The market value of gas turbines is approximately 2 to 3 billion RMB per GW, with a projected demand of 150 billion RMB over the next three years [9][10] - **Yingliu's Market Position**: Yingliu is a leading player in the high-temperature blade market, with a 100% increase in order volume expected in 2024. The company has secured over 1.2 billion RMB in orders and is expanding its production capacity [4][11][12] - **Liande's Progress**: Liande has developed a full industrial chain technology for high-precision casting and machining, beginning to supply gas turbine components in bulk. The company has a strong partnership with Caterpillar, enhancing its market position [13] Additional Insights - **Strategic Importance of Rare Metals**: The production of rare strategic metals like lithium is becoming increasingly important, with rising prices due to demand. Companies like Sains are investing in production lines to capitalize on this trend [14][15]

Core Viewpoint - Dominion Energy has not observed any signs of a slowdown in demand for power supply from data centers [1] Group 1 - The company indicates that the demand for electricity from data centers remains strong [1]