金 融 衍 生 品 研 究 2025 年 11 月 25 日 股票股指期权：ETF 期权临近到期，近月隐波 上升。 张雪慧 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0015363 zhangxuehui022447@gtjas.com 【正文】 表 1：期权市场数据统计 | 标的市场统计 | 收盘价 | 涨 跌 | 成交量(亿 | 成交变化 | 当 月 | 当月基差 | 次 月 | 次月基差 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 手 ) | (亿手) | 合成期货 | | 合成期货 | | | 上证50指数 | 2968.20 | 17.64 | 42.41 | -8.40 | 2960.67 | -7.54 | 2958.47 | -9.74 | | 沪深300指数 | 4490.40 | 42.36 | 169.57 | -16.26 | 4473.00 | -17.40 | 4463.87 | -26.54 | | 中证1000指数 | 7249.95 | 93.54 | 245.43 | 4.77 | 7179.00 | -7 ...

内容提要 2025年10月，银行间外汇市场交投总量平稳，外汇市场日均成交量环比持续上升；美元指数延续走强态势，人民币汇率升至年内新高后震荡回落；境内外汇 差逐步收敛并由负转正，即期发起方延续净买汇方向；期权波动率维持低位，人民币汇率预期整体稳定；长期限掉期点续创近三年以来新高；外币利率市场 美元流动性延续宽松。 即期市场机构发起方延续净买汇，月末转向净卖汇。美元走强带动机构逢低购汇意愿提升，截至20日，即期市场机构发起方日均净买汇17.35亿美元，其中 13日、17日发起方买汇力量明显增强，净买汇超40亿美元；随着中间价稳步调升带动人民币汇率连续走强，市场买卖压力逐步反转，月末转向净卖汇方向； 全月日均净买汇11.80亿美元。在交易行为上，10月市场羊群效应指数为61.89，较9月下降1.01点，低于近一年历史平均值62.65点水平。 四、期权波动率维持低位，人民币汇率预期整体稳定 10月人民币外汇期权交投平稳，日均成交52.33亿美元，环比下降9.07%。波动率方面，人民币对美元平价期权隐含波动率于低位窄幅整理。节后受中美贸易 冲突升级影响，人民币对美元1M ATM隐含波动率月初小幅回升至2.46%，随后回 ...

金 融 衍 生 品 研 究 2025 年 11 月 24 日 股票股指期权：震荡降波，可考虑卖出虚值看 涨期权。 张雪慧 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0015363 zhangxuehui022447@gtjas.com 【正文】 表 1：期权市场数据统计 | 标的市场统计 | 收盘价 | 涨 跌 | 成交量(亿 | 成交变化 | 当 月 | 当月基差 | 次 月 | 次月基差 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 手 ) | (亿手) | 合成期货 | | 合成期货 | | | 上证50指数 | 2950.56 | -5.29 | 50.80 | -9.59 | 2946.20 | -4.36 | 2950.20 | -0.36 | | 沪深300指数 | 4448.05 | -5.56 | 185.83 | -37.02 | 4438.73 | -9.31 | 4427.93 | -20.11 | | 中证1000指数 | 7156.41 | 88.71 | 240.66 | -44.15 | 7098.67 | -5 ...

金 融 衍 生 品 研 究 2025 年 11 月 24 日 股票股指期权：震荡降波，可考虑卖出虚值看 涨期权。 张雪慧 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0015363 zhangxuehui022447@gtjas.com 【正文】 表 1：期权市场数据统计 | 标的市场统计 | 收盘价 | 涨跌 | 成交量(亿 | 成交变化 | 当月 | 当月基差 | 次月 | 次月基差 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 手) | (亿手) | 合成期货 | | 合成期货 | | | 上证50指数 | 2950.56 | -5.29 | 50.80 | -9.59 | 2946.20 | -4.36 | 2950.20 | -0.36 | | 沪深300指数 | 4448.05 | -5.56 | 185.83 | -37.02 | 4438.73 | -9.31 | 4427.93 | -20.11 | | 中证1000指数 | 7156.41 | 88.71 | 240.66 | -44.15 | 7098.67 | -57.74 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The implied volatility of stock index options is decreasing, and stock index options are approaching expiration [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Option Market Data Statistics - **Underlying Market Statistics**: The closing prices of the Shanghai - Shenzhen 300 Index, CSI 1000 Index, Shanghai - Shenzhen related ETFs all decreased. For example, the Shanghai - Shenzhen 300 Index closed at 4564.95, down 23.34; the CSI 1000 Index closed at 7340.41, down 46.80. The trading volumes of most underlying assets changed, with some increasing and some decreasing [3]. - **Option Market Statistics**: The trading volumes and open interests of various options also changed. For instance, the trading volume of Shanghai - Shenzhen 300 Index options was 172,768, up 6704; the open interest was 233,386, down 1521. The VL - PCR and OI - PCR of different options varied, such as the VL - PCR of Shanghai - Shenzhen 300 Index options was 60.97%, and the OI - PCR was 78.20% [3]. 3.2 Option Volatility Statistics - **Near - month Options**: The ATM - IV, IV changes, and other volatility - related indicators of different options showed different trends. For example, the ATM - IV of Shanghai - Shenzhen 300 Index options was 15.02%, up 1.08%; the ATM - IV of Shanghai - Shenzhen 300 ETF options was 15.82%, down 0.13% [6]. - **Next - month Options**: Similar to near - month options, the ATM - IV and other indicators of next - month options also had different changes. For instance, the ATM - IV of Shanghai - Shenzhen 300 Index options was 16.40%, down 0.54% [6]. 3.3 Option Index Data Statistics - No specific analysis content is provided, only the table title is given [7]. 3.4 Different Option Types Analysis - **Shanghai 50 Index Options**: Multiple charts are provided, including the full - contract PCR chart, the main - contract skewness chart, the volatility cone chart, and the volatility term - structure chart, which can be used to analyze the market situation of Shanghai 50 Index options [10]. - **Shanghai - Shenzhen 300 Index Options**: Similar to Shanghai 50 Index options, multiple charts are used to analyze the market situation of Shanghai - Shenzhen 300 Index options, such as the full - contract PCR chart and the main - contract volatility chart [14][16]. - **CSI 1000 Index Options**: The report presents relevant charts for CSI 1000 Index options to help analyze its market characteristics [20][21]. - **Shanghai 50 ETF Options**: Various charts are provided to analyze the market of Shanghai 50 ETF options, including the main - contract volatility chart and the full - contract PCR chart [24][26]. - **Huatai - Baorui 300 ETF Options**: Multiple charts are used to analyze the market situation of Huatai - Baorui 300 ETF options [28][30]. - **Southern CSI 500 ETF Options**: The report uses charts to analyze the market of Southern CSI 500 ETF options [32][33]. - **Huaxia Science and Technology Innovation 50 ETF Options**: Relevant charts are provided for the analysis of Huaxia Science and Technology Innovation 50 ETF options [42][43]. - **E Fund Science and Technology Innovation 50 ETF Options**: Multiple charts are used to analyze the market situation of E Fund Science and Technology Innovation 50 ETF options [46][51]. - **Harvest 300 ETF Options**: The report presents charts to analyze the market of Harvest 300 ETF options [54][55]. - **Harvest CSI 500 ETF Options**: Various charts are used to analyze the market situation of Harvest CSI 500 ETF options [59][60]. - **Growth Enterprise Market ETF Options**: Multiple charts are provided to analyze the market of Growth Enterprise Market ETF options [64][66]. - **Shenzhen 100 ETF Options**: The report uses charts to analyze the market situation of Shenzhen 100 ETF options [68][70].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - The implied volatility of stock index options is declining, and stock index options are approaching maturity [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Option Market Data Statistics - **Underlying Market Statistics**: The closing prices of the Shanghai Composite 50 Index, CSI 300 Index, and CSI 1000 Index all declined. Trading volumes for most indexes and ETFs had significant changes. For example, the Shanghai Composite 50 Index had a trading volume of 54.04 billion shares, a change of 5.84 billion shares [3]. - **Option Market Statistics**: Trading volumes and open interests of various options also changed. For instance, the trading volume of Shanghai Composite 50 Index options was 55,319, with an increase of 7,001, and the open interest was 76,915, with an increase of 319 [3]. 3.2 Option Volatility Statistics - **Near - Month Options**: The implied volatility (ATM - IV) of most options changed. For example, the ATM - IV of Shanghai Composite 50 Index options was 13.95%, with an increase of 0.08%. The historical volatility (HV) of some options decreased, like the HV of Shanghai Composite 50 ETF options decreased by 3.15% to 7.96% [6]. - **Next - Month Options**: Similar to near - month options, the ATM - IV and HV of next - month options also had different changes. For example, the ATM - IV of Shanghai Composite 50 Index next - month options was 14.49%, with a decrease of 0.59% [6]. 3.3 Option Index Data Statistics - Not provided in the report 3.4 Option Charts - **Shanghai Composite 50 Index Options**: There are charts showing the PCR, skew, volatility cone, and volatility term structure of Shanghai Composite 50 Index options, which can help analyze the market sentiment and volatility characteristics of these options [10][12] - **CSI 300 Index Options**: Similar to Shanghai Composite 50 Index options, there are corresponding charts for CSI 300 Index options to analyze their market conditions [14][16] - **CSI 1000 Index Options**: The report provides charts for CSI 1000 Index options to assist in market analysis [18][21] - **ETF Options**: There are also various charts for different ETF options, such as Shanghai Composite 50 ETF options, Huatai - Peregrine 300 ETF options, etc., to analyze their market performance [24][26]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - With the downward increase in volatility, it is advisable to consider buying put options for protection [2] 3. Summary of Key Information from the Report a. Market Data Statistics - **Underlying Market Statistics**: On November 18, 2025, the closing prices of the Shanghai - Shenzhen 300 Index, CSI 1000 Index, and most of the ETFs declined. For example, the Shanghai - Shenzhen 300 Index closed at 4568.19, down 29.86 points; the CSI 1000 Index closed at 7448.10, down 74.98 points. Trading volumes also showed changes, with some increasing and some decreasing [3]. - **Option Market Statistics**: Volumes and open interests of various options changed. For instance, the volume of CSI 1000 index options increased by 45561 to 323505, and the open interest increased by 5348 to 335884. The VL - PCR and OI - PCR values varied across different options [3]. - **Option Volatility Statistics**: The implied volatility (IV) of most options increased, while the historical volatility (HV) showed different trends. For example, the near - month ATM - IV of Shanghai - Shenzhen 300 index options increased by 2.47% to 16.32%, and the 20 - day HV decreased by 13.74% to 8.41% [6]. b. Option - Specific Figures - Multiple figures are presented for each type of option, including full - contract PCR, main - contract skewness, volatility cones, and volatility term structures, which help in analyzing the market trends and characteristics of different options [10][14][18]

Report Date - The report was dated November 18, 2025 [1] Core Viewpoint - With the downward increase in volatility, investors can consider buying put options for protection [2] Market Data Statistics Underlying Market Statistics - The closing prices of the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 Index, CSI 300 Index, and CSI 1000 Index were 3003.02, 4568.19, and 7448.10 respectively, showing declines of -9.05, -29.86, and -74.98. Their trading volumes were 43.59 billion, 177.71 billion, and 277.48 billion shares, with changes of -4.65 billion, -11.24 billion, and 16.32 billion shares [3] - The closing prices of various ETFs such as the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 ETF, Huatai-PineBridge CSI 300 ETF, and Southern CSI 500 ETF also showed different degrees of decline or increase, along with corresponding trading volume changes [3] Options Market Statistics - The trading volumes and positions of various stock index options and ETF options showed different trends. For example, the trading volume of Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 Index Options decreased by 4854 to 45443, while the trading volume of CSI 1000 Index Options increased by 45561 to 323505 [3] - The VL - PCR and OI - PCR of different options also varied. For instance, the VL - PCR of Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 Index Options was 55.82%, and the OI - PCR was 68.64% [3] Options Volatility Statistics - The ATM - IV of various options showed an upward trend in most cases. For example, the ATM - IV of Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 Index Options (near - month) increased by 1.13% to 14.70%, and the ATM - IV of CSI 1000 Index Options (near - month) increased by 2.39% to 19.07% [6] - The changes in HV and Skew of different options were also different. For example, the 20 - day HV of Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 Index Options decreased by 11.14%, and the Skew increased by 0.65% [6] Option Charts - The report includes various charts for different options, such as the full - contract PCR chart, the main - contract skewness chart, the volatility cone chart, and the volatility term structure chart of Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 Index Options, CSI 300 Index Options, etc. These charts help analyze the market trends and characteristics of different options [10][14][18]

国投期货 韩泽文 期货从业号: F03108100 投资咨询号: Z0021517 7 天 日期 标的物价格 标的涨跌幅 当月IV 次月IV 2025/11/13 3.221 0.75% 13.06% 14.76% 2025/11/14 3.183 -1.18% 13.10% 14.83% 2025/11/17 3.159 -0.75% 13.46% 14.73% 【50ETF】 近1年 当月IV分位数 25.30% 26.50% 29.70% 近2年 当月IV分位数 当月合约距离到期还剩 28.80% 29.40% 34.10% 近1年 次月IV分位数 35.40% 38.30% 34.50% 近2年 次月IV分位数 44.30% 46.30% 43.50% 2025年11月17日 金融期权波动率 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% ATM IV(M1) ATM IV(M2) ATM IV(Q1) ATM IV(Q2) ATM IV期限结构 今日 昨日 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 2.00 2.50 3.00 3.50 2022/11/15 2023/4/13 2023/9/7 2024/2/5 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The stock market shows a shrinking volume and narrow - range oscillation, with the dividend style being prominent. It is recommended to transfer technology funds to the price - rising chain and continue the dumbbell configuration [1][6]. - The bond market sentiment is bullish. Although there is still short - term support, the downward space for yields may be limited, and the bond market is expected to oscillate strongly [2][7]. - For stock index options, it is advisable to continue holding covered positions for defense as the market style rotates and no capital main line has been formed yet [1][6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Views 3.1.1 Stock Index Futures - **View**: Shrinking volume and narrow - range oscillation, with the dividend style being prominent. The basis, spread, and position of IF, IH, IC, and IM have changed to varying degrees [6]. - **Logic**: The Shanghai Composite Index oscillated narrowly around 4,000 points on Wednesday, with a trading volume of 2 trillion yuan. The style structure was further adjusted, and the sustainability of hotspots was limited. After the release of the 25Q3 monetary policy report, long - term bond prices opened higher and rose, the bank sector soared in the morning, and the dividend index was strong. High - risk - appetite sectors retreated, and the external market's drag on the domestic market weakened [6]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Dividend ETF + IM long positions [6]. 3.1.2 Stock Index Options - **View**: Focus on covered defense [6]. - **Logic**: The equity market oscillated weakly yesterday, and the turnover of each option variety oscillated and recovered but remained at a relatively low level of liquidity since October. The option sentiment index showed a weak trend, especially for the CSI 1000 index options and technology - sector option varieties. Option trading sentiment changed with the style switch, and option volatility strengthened [6]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Covered positions [6]. 3.1.3 Bond Index Futures - **View**: Bond market sentiment is bullish. The trading volume, position, spread, and basis of T, TF, TS, and TL have changed to varying degrees. The central bank conducted 195.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchases, with 92.8 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing on the same day [7]. - **Logic**: Bond index futures prices rose across the board yesterday. The domestic bond market was generally bullish, interest - rate bond yields mostly declined, and the inter - bank market liquidity improved. The central bank's third - quarter monetary policy report in 2025 continued the keynote of a "moderately loose monetary policy" [2][7]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Trend strategy: oscillate strongly. Hedging strategy: pay attention to long - position substitution at high basis levels. Basis strategy: pay attention to the positive spread strategy and basis widening. Curve strategy: appropriately pay attention to curve steepening [8]. 3.2 Economic Calendar - The report lists the economic indicators to be released in China from November 13 to 14, 2025, including new RMB loans, social financing scale, M2 money supply annual rate, total retail sales of consumer goods annual rate, and added value of industrial enterprises above designated size annual rate [9]. 3.3 Important Information and News Tracking - **Sino - US Relations**: Chinese Vice - Premier He Lifeng met with representatives of the National Committee on United States - China Relations, emphasizing the broad cooperation space in the economic and trade fields between the two countries and the need to implement the consensus of the two heads of state [10]. - **New Energy**: The National Energy Administration issued a guiding opinion on promoting the integrated and coordinated development of new energy, including optimizing the power structure and energy - storage configuration ratio of "desert, Gobi, and wasteland" new - energy bases and exploring the construction of new water - wind - solar integrated bases [10]. - **Automobile**: The Ministry of Public Security completed the solicitation draft of the national standard "Technical Conditions for Motor Vehicle Operation Safety", which includes speed - limit requirements and safety requirements for new - energy vehicles [11]. - **Power Battery**: The 2025 World Power Battery Conference held a signing ceremony in Yibin, Sichuan, with 180 projects signed, totaling 86.13 billion yuan. After full operation, the expected annual output value will exceed 90 billion yuan, and over 50 leading enterprises will settle in Yibin [11]. 3.4 Derivatives Market Monitoring - The report includes sub - sections on stock index futures data, stock index options data, and bond index futures data, but no specific data content is provided in the given text [12][16][28].