交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 棉花早报——2025年10月9日 大越期货投资咨询部 王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询证号： Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 5 今日关注 基本面数据 持仓数据 棉花： 1、基本面：全国棉花产量预计722万吨，新疆再创新高。ICAC9月报：25/26年度产量2550万 吨，消费2550万吨。USDA9月报：25/26年度产量2562.2万吨，消费2587.2万吨，期末库存 1592.5万吨。海关：8月纺织品服装出口265.4亿美元，同比下降5%。8月份我国棉花进口7万 吨，同比减少51.6%；棉纱进口13万吨，同比增加18.18%。农村部9月25/26年度：产量636万 吨，进口140万吨，消费740万吨，期末库存822万吨。偏空。 2、基差：现货3128b全国均价14759， ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Overseas: The global cotton market shows a pattern of weak supply and demand. With the OECD lowering the global economic growth forecast for 2026 to 2.9%, trade frictions and inflation continue to suppress cotton consumption. The U.S. cotton harvest lags behind previous years, while Brazil's harvest is nearly complete and Pakistan's new - cotton listing has increased significantly. Given the macro - economic downturn and short - term supply increase, international cotton prices may continue to fluctuate weakly in the short term [40]. - Domestic: The domestic cotton market is approaching a seasonal supply peak, and prices face significant downward pressure around the National Day. New cotton picking has started, but farmers are waiting and watching. The futures market has led to a decline in expected purchase prices. With the expected concentrated listing and weak consumption, domestic cotton prices may face further correction pressure [40]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Cotton Price and Spread - The weekly average price of international cotton spot increased, and the spread between domestic and international cotton prices continued to narrow. The weekly average price of China's CC Index3128B was 15,292 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 16 yuan/ton. The spread between the Cotlook A 1% tariff converted into RMB and the CC Index3128B narrowed by 132 yuan/ton compared with the previous week [7]. 3.2 Global Cotton Supply and Demand (USDA) - **Global**: The expected total global cotton production in the current year is 25.622 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 230,000 tons (0.9%); consumption is expected to be 25.872 million tons, an increase of 184,000 tons (0.7%); imports are 9.516 million tons, an increase of 27,000 tons (0.3%); exports are 9.515 million tons, an increase of 25,000 tons (0.3%); the global ending inventory is 15.925 million tons, a decrease of 168,000 tons (1.0%) [9]. - **US**: In 2025/26, the U.S. cotton planting area is 56.427 million mu, an increase of 115,000 mu; the harvested area is 44.729 million mu, an increase of 79,000 mu; the abandonment rate is 20.7%, with little change. The yield per unit is expected to be 64.3 kg/mu, a slight decrease; the production is expected to be 2.879 million tons, an increase of 2,000 tons. Consumption is expected to be 370,000 tons, and exports are expected to be 2.613 million tons, with little change. The ending inventory remains at 784,000 tons [12]. - **China**: The expected production is 7.076 million tons, an increase of 218,000 tons (3.2%); consumption is expected to be 8.382 million tons, an increase of 217,000 tons (2.7%); imports are expected to be 1.132 million tons, a decrease of 22,000 tons (1.9%). Considering the decrease in initial supply, the ending inventory decreases by 229,000 tons to 7.396 million tons [14]. 3.3 Growth and Harvest Progress - **US**: As of September 21, the U.S. cotton boll - opening rate was 60%, 2 percentage points behind last year and 1 percentage point ahead of the five - year average. The picking progress was 12%, 1 percentage point behind last year and at the same level as the five - year average. In Texas, the boll - opening rate was 53%, 1 percentage point behind last year and at the same level as the five - year average, and the picking progress was 23%, 2 percentage points behind last year and 1 percentage point ahead of the five - year average [18]. - **China**: As of September 25, the national new cotton picking progress was only 1.5%, a slight increase of 0.2 percentage points year - on - year, still in the initial stage [40]. 3.4 Climate Conditions - **US**: The precipitation in the U.S. was relatively low. As of September 16, the drought - affected area accounted for 40.8% of the total area, an increase of 4.9 percentage points from the previous week. In Texas, the drought - affected area accounted for 20.7%, an increase of 1.8 percentage points from the previous week [21]. - **China**: From September 30 to October 5, Xinjiang was affected by cold air, with rain, snow, and strong winds in some areas, which may have an adverse impact on cotton harvesting [22]. 3.5 Import and Inventory - **Import**: In August 2025, China's cotton imports were 70,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 20,000 tons (40.0%) and a year - on - year decrease of 80,000 tons (51.6%). From January to August 2025, the cumulative imports were 590,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 72.6%. In the 2024/25 season, the cumulative imports were 1.08 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 66.9% [24]. - **Inventory**: As of September 2025, China's domestic commercial cotton inventory was 1.1759 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 305,800 tons, at a historically low level. The industrial inventory was 862,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 30,200 tons, at a historically high level [26][30]. 3.6 Export Sign - ups and Shipments (US) - As of September 18, 2025, the U.S. had cumulatively signed 947,000 tons of cotton for export in the 2025/26 season, accounting for 36.22% of the expected annual exports, and had shipped 220,000 tons, with a shipment rate of 23.23%. China had cumulatively signed 17,000 tons, accounting for 1.77% of the signed volume, and had shipped 2,000 tons, accounting for 11.76% of the signed volume [28]. 3.7 Downstream Market - **Yarn**: The spot price of cotton yarn decreased slightly. Downstream traders and weaving factories replenished stocks for the National Day and subsequent demand, and the sales of cotton yarn were good. Some spinning enterprises had normal holidays during the National Day, while some extended their holidays. The opening rates of yarn mills in different regions were basically stable [34]. - **Retail**: In August 2025, the total retail sales of consumer goods were 3.9668 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.4% and a month - on - month increase of 2.29%. The retail sales of clothing, shoes, hats, and textiles were 104.5 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.1% and a month - on - month increase of 8.74% [37].

Report Title and Period - The report is titled "Cotton Strategy Quarterly Report: Q4 2025" [2] Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The price of cotton is expected to decline first and then rise. In the international market, the fundamentals provide some support, but the driving force is limited, and macro - level factors may cause market sentiment to fluctuate. In the domestic market, there is short - term supply pressure during the cotton concentration listing period, but there are also positive factors, and the price of Zhengzhou cotton futures is expected to show a trend of first decline and then rise in the fourth quarter [11][12] Summary by Directory Supply - Globally in the 2025/26 season, cotton production is expected to be 25.622 million tons, a 1.3% year - on - year decrease. US cotton production is expected to be 2.879 million tons, a decrease of 259,000 tons or 8.2% year - on - year. China's cotton production is expected to be 7.076 million tons, but the domestic general expectation is between 7.2 - 7.5 million tons [6] - Affected by drought, the proportion of US cotton - growing areas is still high, and the excellent - good rate of US cotton is gradually decreasing. High - level drought - affected areas are increasing rapidly, and attention should be paid to subsequent weather disturbances [43][46] Demand - Globally in the 2025/26 season, cotton consumption is expected to be 25.873 million tons, a 0.3% year - on - year decrease [7] - In August, the monthly retail value of US clothing and clothing accessories was $27.183 billion, a 1% month - on - month increase and an 8.3% year - on - year increase [7][64] - In August, the retail sales of clothing, footwear, and textile products in China were 104.51 billion yuan, a 3.1% year - on - year increase, and the cumulative retail sales from January to August were 940.04 billion yuan, a 2.9% year - on - year increase [7][70] - As of the week of September 19, the comprehensive load of yarn was 50.06%, a 0.18 - percentage - point week - on - week increase; the load of pure - cotton yarn mills was 47.6%, a 0.1 - percentage - point week - on - week increase [7][72] - As of the week of September 19, the comprehensive load of staple - fiber cloth was 52.73%, a 2.31 - percentage - point week - on - week increase; the load of pure - cotton grey cloth was 50.42%, a 3.12 - percentage - point week - on - week increase [7][77] Import and Export - In August, China imported 70,000 tons of cotton, a month - on - month increase of 20,000 tons, and the cumulative imports from January to August decreased by 1.56 million tons year - on - year; imported 130,000 tons of cotton yarn, a month - on - month increase of 20,000 tons, and the cumulative imports from January to August decreased by 100,000 tons year - on - year [8] - In August, the monthly export value of clothing and clothing accessories was $14.146 billion, a 10.08% year - on - year decrease; the cumulative export from January to August was $10.2761 billion, a 1.7% year - on - year decrease [8][84] - In August, the monthly export value of Chinese textile yarns, fabrics, and related products was $12.393 billion, a 1.43% year - on - year increase; the cumulative export from January to August was $94.513 billion, a 1.6% year - on - year increase [8][81] Inventory - As of mid - September, China's commercial cotton inventory was 1.1759 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of about 700,000 tons; the industrial inventory was 862,100 tons, a year - on - year increase of about 45,000 tons [9] - As of the week of September 19, the comprehensive inventory of yarn was 26.32 days, a 0.38 - day week - on - week decrease; the comprehensive inventory of staple - fiber cloth was 29.28 days, a 0.94 - day week - on - week decrease [9][94] - As of the week of September 19, the cotton inventory of textile enterprises was 28.7 days, a 0.65 - day week - on - week decrease; the cotton yarn inventory of textile enterprises was 27.22 days, a 0.48 - day week - on - week decrease [9][96] - As of the week of September 19, the cotton yarn inventory of weaving factories was 7.78 days, a 0.26 - day week - on - week increase; the inventory of pure - cotton grey cloth was 31.18 days, a 1.4 - day week - on - week decrease [9][98] - The speed of cotton warehouse receipt liquidation has increased. As of September 25, 2025, the total number of cotton warehouse receipts and valid forecasts was 3,595, a decrease of 3,127 compared to August 28 [106] Option - The historical volatility of cotton is gradually decreasing, and the historical volatility cone is at a moderately low level [107]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Cotton outlook: The current spot market is tight, but as new cotton is about to be listed, market tension will ease. Despite the USDA's report raising global consumption, macro - economic data shows no significant improvement. With global production increasing, supply - demand is balanced. New cotton will flood the market in October, bringing significant pressure and potential price fluctuations [69]. - Yarn outlook: The yarn market follows cotton prices. Due to intense industry competition and declining exports, future pressure is expected to be high [69]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 9 - month Market Review - In September, Zhengzhou cotton and yarn prices fluctuated weakly. The approaching new cotton listing and less - than - expected "Golden September and Silver October" conditions led to market pressure. The spot market was tight, but the market was trading on future expectations. Yarn followed cotton, with over - capacity compressing spinning profits, and more pressure expected with further expansion in Xinjiang [5][8]. 3.2 Supply - side Analysis - **Global Supply - Demand Balance**: In the 2025/26 season, global cotton production is expected to be 2562.2 million tons (up 23 million tons, 0.9% month - on - month), consumption 2587.2 million tons (up 18.4 million tons, 0.7% month - on - month), imports 951.6 million tons (up 2.7 million tons, 0.3% month - on - month), exports 951.5 million tons (up 2.5 million tons, 0.3% month - on - month), and ending stocks 1592.5 million tons (down 16.8 million tons, 1.0% month - on - month). In 2024/25, production and consumption are expected to increase, with ending stocks decreasing [14]. - **US Cotton**: In September 2025, the US cotton planting and harvest areas decreased, and the national abandonment rate increased month - on - month. The signing and export of US upland cotton were slow. As of September 18, 2025, the US had a cumulative net signed export of 94.7 million tons of 2025/26 cotton, reaching 36.22% of the expected annual export, with a shipment rate of 23.23% [15][20]. - **Indian Cotton**: In the 2024/25 season, India's cotton production is expected to be 531.1 million tons (up 1.7 million tons, 0.3% month - on - month), imports 69.7 million tons (up 3.4 million tons, 5.1% month - on - month). Consumption and exports are stable. Ending stocks increased by 5.1 million tons to 103 million tons (up 5.2% month - on - month) [22]. - **Brazilian Cotton**: In the 2024/25 season, Brazil's cotton planting area is expected to increase to 2.086 million hectares (about 31.29 million mu), a 7.3% year - on - year increase. The national yield per mu is expected to decrease to 125.8 kg/mu, a 0.9% year - on - year decrease. Total production is expected to reach 3.935 million tons, a 6.3% year - on - year increase. In 2024/25, Brazil exported 2.835 million tons of cotton, a 5.8% year - on - year increase, earning about $4.85 billion [25]. - **Domestic Cotton**: In the 2025/26 season, China's total supply increased by 41 million tons to 14.95 million tons. Total demand increased by 12 million tons to 8.42 million tons. Ending stocks increased by 29 million tons to 6.53 million tons. As of the end of August, commercial and industrial cotton inventories decreased significantly. In August, cotton and yarn imports showed different trends [27][31][36]. 3.3 Demand - side Analysis - **Domestic Demand**: In August 2025, China's social consumer goods retail sales reached 396.68 billion yuan, a 3.4% year - on - year increase. From January to August, the total was 3.23906 trillion yuan, a 4.6% year - on - year increase. Clothing, footwear, and textile retail sales in August were 104.5 billion yuan, a 3.1% year - on - year increase [43]. - **External Demand**: In July 2025, China's textile and clothing exports were $26.766 billion, a 0.06% year - on - year decrease. From January to July, exports were $170.741 billion, a 0.63% year - on - year increase [46]. - **Textile Industry Inventory**: In July, the textile industry's inventory was 402.01 billion yuan, a 0.12% month - on - month increase. Textile and clothing inventory was 189.91 billion yuan, a 1.03% month - on - month increase [48]. - **US Retail and Inventory**: In July 2025, US clothing and apparel retail sales were $26.908 billion, a 6.44% year - on - year increase. In June, retailer inventory was $58.349 billion, a 1.37% year - on - year increase, and the inventory - to - sales ratio was 2.20 [56]. - **Industrial Chain Operation**: The spot market for pure - cotton yarn had average trading, with prices following Zhengzhou cotton down. Spinning mills continued to reduce inventory slightly, and the operating rate was stable. The all - cotton grey fabric weaving factories mainly had small - batch orders, with limited growth, and the operating rate changed little [60].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the cotton textile industry is "Oscillating Weakly" [3] Core Viewpoints - Short - and medium - term outlook for cotton: This year, new cotton is on the market. With current prices in the low - value range, cotton purchases are likely to be stable. Around the National Day, firm spot prices support seed cotton prices, preventing deep drops in futures. After mid - to late October, as new cotton supply increases and hedging pressure rises, futures may first open low, then rebound, and finally decline. The short - term fluctuation range of CF2601 futures price is 13,200 - 14,200. Whether it can exceed 14,200 in October depends on the post - National Day spot tightness. Long - term outlook: Due to potentially tight domestic supply - demand next year, balanced global supply - demand, the Fed's shift to a rate - cut cycle, and possible continuous domestic favorable policies, the market is expected to improve macroscopically, showing an upward oscillating trend in the long run [5]. - For cotton yarn, this week, Zhengzhou cotton and cotton yarn markets mainly oscillated downward. The pure - cotton yarn market had average trading, worse than previous years. Low - count yarns performed better, with downstream purchasing for rigid demand. Inland spinning enterprises are still in cash - flow losses and lack confidence in the future. The market is highly concerned about subsequent orders in September [7]. Summary by Directory 01 - Weekly Viewpoint - Cotton - Short - and medium - term: New cotton purchase likely stable, futures supported by spot before National Day, may decline after mid - to late October. CF2601 short - term range 13,200 - 14,200. Long - term: Tight domestic supply - demand next year, global balance, possible favorable policies, long - term upward oscillation [5]. 02 - Weekly Viewpoint - Cotton Yarn - This week, Zhengzhou cotton and cotton yarn oscillated downward. Pure - cotton yarn market trading was average, low - count yarns better, inland enterprises in losses, market concerned about September orders [7]. 03 - Market Review - Cotton market: Zhengzhou cotton broke through support and trended down. Market focused on new cotton listing, with increased Xinjiang cotton production and yarn capacity, and tight spot market causing divergence. Cotton yarn market: Pure - cotton yarn trading was average, worse than previous years, low - count yarns better, inland enterprises in losses [11]. 04 - International Macroeconomics - In the US, various economic indicators such as ISM manufacturing PMI, employment data, trade balance, inflation, and interest rates had different changes in September 2025. In the Eurozone, unemployment, CPI, PPI, GDP, and interest rates also showed specific trends [12]. 05 - Domestic Macroeconomics - In China, in September 2025, foreign exchange reserves increased, CPI and PPI had specific changes, M2 money supply remained stable, social financing scale and new RMB loans had significant differences from previous values, and indicators like fixed - asset investment, retail sales, and unemployment also changed [14]. 06 - Global Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - In the 2025/26 season, global cotton production, consumption, imports, and exports all increased slightly compared to the previous month, while the ending inventory decreased. Total supply increased slightly, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio changed [16][17]. 08 - US Cotton Exports - From September 5 - 11, 2025, US net signing of 2025/26 upland cotton increased, while shipments decreased. Net signing of Pima cotton increased, but shipments decreased. China's net signing of 2025/26 upland cotton was 998 tons, with no shipments [22]. 09 - Industrial and Commercial Inventories - At the end of August, China's commercial cotton inventory decreased significantly compared to the previous month and last year. Industrial cotton inventory in textile enterprises decreased slightly. Total industrial and commercial inventories decreased year - on - year [23]. 10 - Cotton and Cotton Yarn Imports in July - In August 2025, China's cotton imports increased from the previous month but decreased year - on - year. Cotton yarn imports increased both month - on - month and year - on - year. Cumulative imports from January - August and the 2024/25 season decreased compared to the previous year [28]. 11 - Cotton Yarn Production and Sales in August - In August, the pure - cotton yarn market improved, especially in the second half. Spinning enterprises' profit margins improved, with reduced losses. August production increased year - on - year but decreased month - on - month, and cumulative production from January - August increased year - on - year [32]. 12 - US Cotton Growth - As of September 14, US cotton boll opening and harvesting rates were close to the average of recent years, and the good - to - excellent rate was high. Yield is expected to increase steadily [35]. 13 - US Cotton Weather - As of September 16, the drought index in the US cotton - growing areas increased, approaching the 5 - year average. Early - stage drought had limited impact, and the weekly good - to - excellent rate was good [39]. 14 - Xinjiang Cotton Growth - As of September 15, 2025, Xinjiang cotton was in the late boll - opening stage, with a high boll - opening rate. The second round of defoliant spraying was in progress, and some early - maturing varieties in northern Xinjiang had started picking [41]. 15 - Textile Industry Inventories - In July, textile industry inventories increased slightly month - on - month and year - on - year. Textile and garment inventories showed different trends in month - on - month and year - on - year comparisons [42]. 16 - Domestic Demand - In August 2025, China's social consumer goods retail总额 increased year - on - year and month - on - month. Retail sales of clothing, footwear, and textiles also increased [47]. 17 - External Demand - Exports - In July 2025, China's textile and garment exports decreased slightly year - on - year and month - on - month. From January - July, exports increased year - on - year [50]. 18 - US Apparel Retail Sales in July - In July 2025, US apparel and clothing accessory retail sales increased year - on - year and month - on - month. In June, retailer inventories increased year - on - year but decreased month - on - month, and the inventory - to - sales ratio decreased [56]. 19 - US Cotton Product Imports in July - In July 2025, US cotton product imports increased month - on - month but decreased year - on - year. Textile and garment imports increased both month - on - month and year - on - year [59]. 20 - Warehouse Receipts - As of September 18, 2024/25 season warehouse receipts decreased compared to the previous week [61]. 21 - Non - Commercial Long Positions - As of September 9, ICE cotton futures non - commercial futures plus options net long positions decreased, as did non - commercial futures net long positions and commodity index fund net long positions [65]. 22 - Spinning Mill Load - As of September 12, the pure - cotton yarn mill load index remained flat, the rayon yarn load remained flat, and the polyester yarn load increased slightly [68]. 23 - Weaving Mill Load - The pure - cotton grey fabric load index, rayon fabric load index, and short - fiber fabric comprehensive load all increased [72]. 24 - Industrial Chain Inventories - Textile enterprises' cotton, cotton yarn, and pure - cotton grey fabric inventories decreased compared to the previous week. Improving demand in the "Golden September and Silver October" season led to inventory decline, supporting prices [76]. 25 - Industrial Chain Profits - In the spot market, the pure - cotton yarn market was mediocre. Spinning enterprises wanted to maintain prices, and yarn prices declined slightly with Zhengzhou cotton. Profits improved slightly, with inland enterprises' C32S cash - flow losses around 300 yuan/ton [82]. 26 - Basis - This week, the basis strengthened as futures prices declined. The current basis is 1448 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton from last week. New cotton purchase prices are out, and the basis for pre - sold new cotton is relatively high and stable [83]. 27 - Domestic - Foreign Cotton Price Spread - This year, domestic cotton is stronger than foreign cotton. However, after October, with Xinjiang cotton harvest and possible large - scale arrival of Brazilian cotton in November - December, the situation may change. In the long run, domestic supply may be tight next year, so one should not blindly short domestic and long foreign cotton [86]. 28 - Inter - Month Spread - The 11 - 1 spread is - 115 yuan/ton this week. Considering next year's supply - demand and macro - factors, the near - term is weak and the long - term is strong. However, due to factors like warehouse receipt cancellation in November, the spread may fluctuate between - 80 and - 200 [91].

农产品团队 贾晖 Z000183 余德福 Z0019060 曹以康 F03133687 20250920棉系周报： 新棉逐步上量施压盘面 警惕阶段性抢收反弹 | | | | | | 棉花供需平衡表(9月) | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 项目名称 | | 2021/22 | 2022/23 | 2023/24 | 2024/25 | 2025/26 | 2025/26 | 环比变化 | 同比变化 | | | 中国 | 581.3 | | 595.5 | 696.6 | (8月) 685.8 | (9月) | 21.8 | 10.9 | | | | | 669.5 | | | | 707.5 | | | | | 印度 | 529.1 | 572.6 | 553.0 | 522.5 | 511.6 | 522.5 | 10.9 | 0.0 | | | 巴西 | 235.6 | 255.2 | 317.2 | 370.1 | 397.3 | 397.3 | 0.0 | 27.2 | | | 美国 | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a bearish outlook on the cotton industry, expecting short - term weak and volatile trends [5]. 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report - New cotton is about to be listed in large quantities with strong expectations of a bumper harvest, which exerts pressure on cotton prices. On the other hand, the industrial chain inventory has dropped to a low level, and the domestic cotton commercial inventory is at a historical low. Seasonal replenishment provides support at the bottom. It is expected to be mainly weak and volatile in the short - term, with support at around 13,500 yuan/ton. It is advisable to wait and see on a single - side basis and buy far - month contracts after the market drops to an appropriate level [5]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 01 Week - on - Week Core Points and Strategies - **Supply**: The 2025/26 US cotton production is 2.879 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8.2%, with the final output estimated to be between 2.85 - 3 million tons. The 2025/26 Chinese cotton production is 7.08 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.5%, and there is still room for the USDA to raise its forecast [5]. - **Demand**: The 2025/26 Chinese cotton consumption is 8.38 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.2%. Domestic downstream consumption is sluggish, but there are signs of marginal improvement in current downstream orders. As of September 19, the spinning mill operating rate is 66.6% (66.5% last week), and the weaving mill operating rate is 37.9% (38% last week) [5]. - **Inventory**: As of the end of August, the domestic cotton commercial inventory is 1.4817 million tons, a decrease of 708,100 tons from the end of July and a year - on - year decrease of 30.9%. As of September 19, the raw material inventory available days of textile enterprises is 10.86 days (11.63 days last week), and the yarn inventory days of spinning mills is 30.4 days (30.6 days last week) [5]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: As of September 19, the registered warehouse receipts of Zhengzhou cotton are 4,232, with 12 valid forecasts, and the total of warehouse receipts and valid forecasts is 169,700 tons (200,600 tons on September 12) [5]. - **Basis**: As of September 19, the spot price of Xinjiang cotton is 15,250 yuan/ton, the closing price of the main CF2601 contract is 13,735 yuan/ton, and the Xinjiang cotton basis is 1,515 yuan/ton [5]. - **Cost**: The overall planting cost of self - owned land has decreased slightly. The cost of cotton planting on rented land is equivalent to a seed cotton price of 6.0 - 6.2 yuan/kg, equivalent to about 13,500 - 13,600 yuan/ton on the futures market. The overall average cost of ginning plants in the new year is expected to be 14,700 - 14,800 yuan/ton, and the opening purchase price is not expected to be high [5]. - **Macro**: In the US, the number of initial jobless claims last week dropped significantly to 231,000, a decrease of 32,000 from the previous week, the largest decline in nearly four years. Retail sales in August showed strong growth, but tariffs and a weak employment market pose downward risks. The US consumer confidence index in September continued to decline, reaching the lowest level since May. On September 17, the Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points. In China, waiting for the Politburo meeting in October, domestic demand - side policies are continuously strengthening, which is expected to support the medium - and long - term demand for domestic cotton [5]. 3.2 02 Week - on - Week Data Charts 3.2.1 Global Cotton Supply - Demand Balance Sheet (USDA) - In 2025/26, the global cotton production is 25.62 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.3%, and the total consumption is 25.87 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.26% [9]. 3.2.2 US Cotton Supply - Demand Balance Sheet (USDA) - In 2025/26, the US cotton production is 2.879 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8.2%, with the final output estimated to be between 2.85 - 3 million tons. Consumption is 370,000 tons, remaining flat year - on - year [10]. 3.2.3 Chinese Cotton Supply - Demand Balance Sheet (USDA) - In 2025/26, Chinese cotton production is 7.08 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.5%, and there is still room for the USDA to raise its forecast. Consumption is 8.38 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.2% [11]. 3.2.4 Chinese Cotton Supply - Demand Balance Sheet (BCO) - In 2025/26, the estimated production is 7.42 million tons, close to the general expectation of 7.5 million tons. Imports are expected to increase by 34% year - on - year, different from the USDA's forecast of flat imports. Consumption is similar to the USDA data, showing a slight year - on - year decrease, not overly pessimistic. The inventory - to - consumption ratio is expected to increase by 6.03% year - on - year [13]. Other Data - **Domestic New - Year Planting**: The new - year planting area has expanded, maintaining a pattern of loose supply. According to different surveys from February to June, the national planting area and Xinjiang planting area show varying degrees of year - on - year increases, while the national and Xinjiang cotton yields show different degrees of year - on - year decreases [19]. - **Cotton and Yarn Imports**: Cotton import volume is low, and spinning enterprises are looking forward to import quotas [21]. - **Enterprise Inventories**: As of September 19, the raw material inventory available days of textile enterprises is 10.86 days (11.63 days last week), and the yarn inventory days of spinning mills is 30.4 days (30.6 days last week) [27]. - **Enterprise Operating Rates**: As of September 19, the spinning mill operating rate is 66.6% (66.5% last week), and the weaving mill operating rate is 37.9% (38% last week) [5]. - **Chinese Cotton Commercial Inventory**: As of the end of August, the domestic cotton commercial inventory is 1.4817 million tons, a decrease of 708,100 tons from the end of July and a year - on - year decrease of 30.9%, at a historical low [39].

Report Overview - Report Title: Cotton Futures Weekly Review - Date: September 20, 2025 - Researcher: Wang Zijian - Contact: 17803978037 - Futures Practitioner Qualification Number: F03087965 - Futures Trading Consultation Number: Z0019551 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report's Core View - Internationally, the Fed's 25bp rate cut met market expectations. The 2025/26 global cotton market will have a 250,000 - ton supply - demand gap. The supply in the international cotton market is tightening, driving cotton prices to remain strong [4]. - Domestically, the domestic cotton market is in the critical period of new cotton harvesting, with the price center moving down. New cotton listing pressure is digesting the support effect of reduced old - cotton inventory, and domestic cotton prices will face seasonal downward pressure in the short term [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 International Market - **Supply - demand situation**: The 2025/26 global cotton market will have a 250,000 - ton supply - demand gap (production of 25.62 million tons/consumption of 25.87 million tons), with production decreasing by 340,000 tons year - on - year and consumption decreasing by 70,000 tons year - on - year. Brazil's cotton harvesting is over 60% and processing is 20%. US new cotton boll opening rate is 40%, 12 percentage points faster week - on - week but 4 percentage points lower than last year, and the picking progress is 8%, 1 percentage point higher than last year. In early September, US cotton export contracts decreased by 26,200 tons to 29,700 tons, and shipments decreased by 5,300 tons to 30,800 tons. Uzbekistan plans to boost the cotton textile industry through industrial subsidy policies [4]. - **US cotton data**: In September 2025, the US cotton planting area was 56.427 million mu, up 115,000 mu month - on - month; the harvest area was 44.729 million mu, up 79,000 mu month - on - month; the abandonment rate was 20.7%, with little change. The yield per unit was expected to be 64.3 kg/mu, slightly decreasing month - on - month; the production was expected to be 2.879 million tons, up 2,000 tons month - on - month. Consumption was expected to be 370,000 tons, and exports were expected to be 2.613 million tons, with no significant changes. The ending inventory remained at 784,000 tons [14]. - **US cotton growth progress**: As of September 14, the US cotton boll opening rate was 50%, 3 percentage points behind last year and 1 percentage point ahead of the five - year average. The picking progress was 9%, 1 percentage point behind last year and 1 percentage point ahead of the five - year average. In the main producing area of Texas, the boll opening rate was 46%, the same as last year and 1 percentage point ahead of the five - year average; the picking progress was 21%, the same as last year and 4 percentage points ahead of the five - year average [16]. - **US drought situation**: As of September 9, the area of drought - affected regions in the US accounted for 35.9%, 1.2 percentage points higher than the previous week. About 32% of cotton - planting areas in the US were affected by drought, 2 percentage points higher than the previous week. In Texas, about 7% of cotton - planting areas were affected by drought, 4 percentage points higher than the previous week [19]. - **US cotton export**: As of September 11, 2025, the US had cumulatively signed net export contracts for 925,000 tons of 2025/26 cotton, reaching 35.40% of the annual expected exports, and had cumulatively shipped 188,000 tons, with a shipment rate of 20.27%. China had cumulatively signed contracts to import 17,000 tons of US cotton, accounting for 1.81% of the signed US cotton contracts, and had cumulatively shipped 363 tons, accounting for 0.19% of the total US cotton shipments and 2.17% of China's signed contracts [28]. 3.2 Domestic Market - **Supply situation**: The domestic cotton market is in the new cotton harvesting period. Xinjiang and other main producing areas' new cotton is in the boll - opening stage, and mechanical harvesting is expected to start next week. Mainstream institutions predict that the domestic cotton production in 2025 will exceed 7 million tons. As of September 11, the national new cotton picking progress was 0.3%, 0.1 percentage points higher than last year but 0.1 percentage points lower than the four - year average. The initial inventory decreased by 110,000 tons to 6.13 million tons. Due to the increase in cotton - planting area in Xinjiang and a slight increase in yield per unit, the national total production was increased by 520,000 tons to 7.42 million tons this month. The annual import volume remained at 1.4 million tons [5][26]. - **Demand situation**: The downstream demand is under pressure. The effect of textile industry's rush - to - export has faded, and overseas orders have shrunk. In August, textile and clothing exports were 26.5 billion US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 5%. From January to August, cumulative exports were 197.2 billion US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 0.2%. The new - year textile production capacity in Xinjiang will increase steadily, and the overall textile cotton demand will remain high. The annual textile cotton consumption expectation was increased by 120,000 tons to 8.02 million tons this month, and other consumption and exports remained at 380,000 tons and 20,000 tons respectively [5][26]. - **Market structure**: The old - cotton inventory is continuously consumed, supporting high spot prices, but textile enterprises' purchasing willingness is low, resulting in a situation of high prices but few transactions in the spot market [5]. - **Spinning enterprises situation**: Small and medium - sized spinning enterprises maintain a low operating rate, and the market demand is difficult to support the recovery of the operating rate. Large and medium - sized spinning enterprises with stable customer groups have relatively stable orders and a high operating rate, but yarn prices are difficult to rise, and enterprises have difficulty in making profits, mainly selling at a loss. The operating rates of spinning mills in various regions are basically stable. Large spinning mills in Xinjiang operate at about 90%, large enterprises in Henan operate at an average of 60% - 70%, and large spinning mills in Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shandong, and Anhui along the Yangtze River operate at an average of 60% - 70% [30]. - **Commercial inventory**: As of August 2025, China's domestic cotton commercial inventory was 1.4817 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 338,500 tons, and it was at a historically low level seasonally [32]. 3.3 USDA Data - **Global cotton supply - demand forecast**: In the 2025/26 global cotton supply - demand forecast, production increased month - on - month, consumption increased month - on - month, and import and export trade volumes both increased slightly. Due to the decrease in initial inventory, the ending inventory decreased again this year. In the 2024/25 supply - demand forecast, global cotton production and consumption increased, and the ending inventory decreased again because the increase in consumption was greater than that in production [13].

长江期货棉纺产业周报 2025-9-15 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字{2014}1号 震荡运行 【长期研究|棉纺团队】 研究员：黄尚海 执业编号:F0270997 投资咨询编号:Z0002826 Ø 短中期展望：今年新花上市，基于目前价格属于低位值区域，今年大概率收购平稳，不会出现过热，也不会出现过于 悲观，可能在 9 月 15 日-10 月 15 日一个月内有反弹可能，10 月中旬过后，由于新棉花供应量增加，套保的压力， 先扬后抑走势。CF2601 期货价格波动区域为13300-14500。同比上周变化的地方：原本觉得反弹 9 月 30 日提前结束， 不会撑到十一以后，基于内地紧张问题，可能价格坚挺能维持到十一后。。 Ø 长期展望：由于国内明年供需可能依然紧张，全球供需属于平衡区，美联储转为降息周期，中美低利率宽松货币共振， 国内可能有利好政策不断跟进，预计明年宏观走好，长线看震荡上行趋势。不过我们要随时关注国际局势，因意外因 素，打乱节奏，产生的影响。同比上周变化的地方：国内供需上，新疆丰产会迷失大家眼睛，由于新疆的扩产能，明 年消费量会增加，实际上明年国内供需可能依然紧张。 02 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a "Shock Operation" rating for the cotton textile industry [3] Core Viewpoints - In the short - term, after the September 3rd Victory Day parade in China, the stock market dropped. The August PMI manufacturing index rebounded but remained below 50%. Enterprise profits turned positive. Next week, the CF2601 contract is expected to oscillate or start a rebound test in the range of [13920 - 14255]. In the medium - term, new cotton will be on the market after September 20th. The expected purchase price of ginned cotton mills is 6 - 6.3 yuan/ton. Pre - sales of new cotton have increased significantly. With the approaching of the "Golden September and Silver October", there is a possibility of price support or rebound, but high inventories of grey cloth and yarn limit the rebound height. In the long - term, after new cotton is on the market, prices may first rise and then fall, and next year the market is expected to be shock - strong due to the expected interest rate cuts [6] - For cotton yarn, this week, Zhengzhou cotton prices adjusted, and the cotton yarn market also followed. The trading volume of pure cotton yarn is average, and low - count yarns perform better. Inland spinning enterprises are still in cash - flow losses and lack confidence in the future. With the approaching of the "Golden September and Silver October", prices are expected to strengthen [8] Summaries by Directory 01. Weekly Viewpoint - Cotton - Short - term: After the parade, the stock market fell. The PMI index rebounded but was below 50%. Next week, expect oscillations or a rebound test in the [13920 - 14255] range for CF2601 [6] - Medium - term: New cotton will be on the market after September 20th. Pre - sales have increased. The "Golden September and Silver October" may support prices, but high inventories limit the rebound [6] - Long - term: New cotton prices may first rise and then fall. Next year, the market may be shock - strong due to expected interest rate cuts [6] 02. Weekly Viewpoint - Cotton Yarn - This week, Zhengzhou cotton prices adjusted, and the cotton yarn market followed. Low - count yarns perform better. Inland spinning enterprises are in losses. With the approaching of the "Golden September and Silver October", prices may strengthen [8] 03. Market Review - Zhengzhou cotton is still weak. Macro - risk aversion is strong. Cotton merchants' inventories are low, and some old cotton remains unsold. Spinning enterprises purchase raw materials on a need - basis. New cotton production is expected to increase slightly, bringing long - term pressure. The trading volume of pure cotton yarn is average, and low - count yarns perform better. Inland spinning enterprises are in cash - flow losses [12] 04. International Macro - US economic data shows that in September 2025, the ISM manufacturing PMI was 48.7, ADP employment decreased, exports increased, imports increased, and the trade deficit widened. Eurozone data shows that the unemployment rate decreased, CPI increased, and PPI increased [13] 05. Domestic Macro - Upcoming domestic economic data to be released includes foreign exchange reserves, CPI, PPI, M2 money supply, social financing scale, and new RMB loans [15] 06. Global Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - According to the USDA's August report, in the 2025/26 season, global cotton production, consumption, and trade volume decreased month - on - month, and the ending inventory decreased. In the 2024/25 season, production decreased, consumption increased, exports decreased, and the ending inventory decreased again [17] 07. Domestic Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - In the 2024/25 season, the total supply decreased due to a decrease in imports. The total demand increased due to an increase in cotton consumption. The ending inventory decreased by 120,000 tons. In the 2025/26 season, the total supply decreased slightly, the total demand remained stable, and the ending inventory decreased by 100,000 tons [22] 08. US Cotton Exports - As of August 14, 2025, the US had cumulatively signed 755,000 tons of cotton exports for the 2025/26 season, with a signing rate of 28.88% and a shipment rate of 8.49%. China had signed 3,000 tons and shipped 181 tons [25] 09. Industrial and Commercial Inventories - At the end of July, the national commercial cotton inventory was 2.1898 million tons, a decrease of 22.62% from the previous month and 21.18% from the same period last year. As of August 15, the commercial inventory was 1.8202 million tons, a decrease of 16.88% from the end of July. Industrial inventories also changed accordingly [28] 10. Cotton and Cotton Yarn Imports - In July 2025, China's cotton imports were 50,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 73.2%. From January to July, cumulative imports were 520,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 74.2%. Cotton yarn imports in July were 110,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 16.4% [31] 11. Cotton Yarn Production and Sales - In August, the cotton yarn market improved, especially in the second half of the month. The profit of spinning enterprises improved, but the operating rate did not increase significantly. The estimated production of pure cotton yarn in August was 424,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 11.8% and a month - on - month decrease of 2.3% [35] 12. US Cotton Growth - As of August 31, the boll - setting rate of US cotton was 90%, 4 percentage points slower than last year and 3 points slower than the five - year average. The flocculation rate was 28%, 7 points slower than last year and 2 points slower than the average. The excellent - good rate was 51%, 7 points higher than last year and 8 points higher than the average [38] 13. US Cotton Weather - As of September 2, the drought index in the US cotton - growing areas increased, but most cotton had completed boll - setting and entered the flocculation stage, so the impact on growth was limited [42] 14. Xinjiang Cotton Growth - As of September 1, the average flocculation rate in Xinjiang was 27.7%, an increase of 12.4 percentage points. Some cotton fields have started spraying defoliants, and new cotton is expected to be on the market 10 - 15 days earlier than usual [44] 15. Textile Industry Inventory - In July, the inventory of the textile industry increased by 0.12% month - on - month and 0.49% year - on - year. The finished - product inventory of the textile industry decreased by 0.03% month - on - month and increased by 1.31% year - on - year. Textile and clothing inventories changed accordingly [45] 16. Domestic Demand - In July 2025, the total retail sales of consumer goods were 3.878 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.7%. The retail sales of clothing, shoes, hats, and textiles were 96.1 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 1.8% [50] 17. External Demand - In July 2025, China's textile and clothing exports were 26.766 billion US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 0.06%. From January to July, cumulative exports were 170.741 billion US dollars, a year - on - year increase of 0.63% [53] 18. US Clothing Retail - In June 2025, the retail sales of US clothing and accessories were 26.342 billion US dollars, a year - on - year increase of 3.88% and a month - on - month increase of 0.94% [56] 19. US Cotton Product Imports - In June 2025, US cotton product imports were 1.357 billion square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 4.47% and a month - on - month increase of 5.32%. Textile and clothing imports also changed [60] 20. Warehouse Receipts - As of September 4, the number of warehouse receipts was 5,829, a decrease of 167 from the previous week [62] 21. Non - Commercial Positions - As of August 26, the net long positions of non - commercial futures and options in the ICE cotton futures market decreased by 2,829 to - 40,128. The net long positions of non - commercial futures alone decreased by 2,501 to - 37,606. The net long positions of commodity index funds decreased by 513 to 59,842 [66] 22. Textile Factory Load - As of September 5, the load index of pure cotton yarn mills was 64.5, unchanged from the previous week; the load of rayon yarn mills was 50, unchanged; the load of pure polyester yarn mills was 54.5, an increase of 0.1 from the previous week [70] 23. Weaving Factory Load - The load index of all - cotton grey cloth mills increased by 0.3 to 46.5, the load index of rayon cloth mills increased by 1.0 to 55.5, and the comprehensive load of short - fiber cloth mills increased by 0.2 to 49.3 [74] 24. Industry Chain Inventory - Textile enterprises' cotton inventory decreased by 0.7 days to 29.7 days, cotton yarn inventory decreased by 0.4 days to 28.1 days, and all - cotton grey cloth inventory decreased by 0.9 days to 33.5 days [78] 25. Industry Chain Profits - This week, Zhengzhou cotton prices oscillated after a rebound. The cotton yarn market improved slightly, but the price increase was limited. Inland spinning enterprises for C32S were still in losses of about 500 yuan/ton, while Xinjiang enterprises still had a small profit [83] 26. Basis - This week, the basis weakened significantly with the rebound of futures prices. The current inland basis is 1,033 yuan/ton, a decrease of 505 yuan/ton from the previous week. The new cotton pre - sale basis is 800 - 1000 yuan/ton [86] 27. Domestic and Foreign Cotton Price Spread - Currently, the domestic cotton market is stronger than the foreign market. After October, if China increases foreign cotton imports or conducts state reserves sales, the situation may change [89] 28. Inter - Month Spread - The 9 - 11 spread weakened to - 300 yuan/ton, approaching the target. The 11 - 1 spread first weakened to - 230 yuan/ton and then strengthened to - 125 yuan/ton. A strategy of shorting 11 and going long 1 is recommended [92]