让衍生品 成为新的生产力 Make derivatives the new productivity 从业资格证号： F0232181 Z000183 撰写日期：20251009 贾晖 Z000183 曹以康 F03133687 中辉期货有限公司 交易咨询业务资格 证监许可[2015]75号 2025 四季度报告 棉花 新花高压下阶段性寻底 长期或"先抑后扬" 国际棉市，受中国进口市场持续缺席影响，美棉出口需求偏弱，ICE 棉市历史高 位未点价买单量压制棉价上涨，叠加宏观预期反复下资金偏空态度，基金机构净空头 持仓高位，短中期棉价表现受限。未来，虽然市场对 2025/26 年度全球库销比存改善 预期，但需消费配合及考量宏观因素，仅预期同比小幅减产对棉价上行推动有限。不 过，ICE 棉价处相对低位，大幅下探空间有限。 中辉期货研究院 贾晖 国内棉市，Q4 棉价不乐观但底部空间需谨慎。新棉产量达近十年新高，公检、 上市进度早于往年，且轧花厂风险偏好改变致疆内 "抢收" 情绪弱，机采籽棉开秤 价走低抑制现货价，外贸 "抢出口" 降温也使下游需求偏弱，利空聚集限制阶段性 棉价。但中长期看，进口棉数量低、前期原棉消化快 ...

调研报告-棉花 [Table_Title] 产量预估持续提升， 产业偏空预期一致性较强 [Table_Rank] 走势评级： 报告日期： 棉花: 看跌 2025 年 9 月 29 日 [Table_Summary] ★调研目的： 疆棉采收期临近，为了深入了解新疆棉花产量、收购、消费、库存、 产业心态等，本人于 9 月 7 日-19 日参加了新疆棉花调研活动。 ★调研情况总结： ★行情展望： 四季度，新棉大量上市期，供应压力和市场情绪集中释放，盘面有 跌破 13000 的可能，低点或在 11 月份。待利空得到较大程度释放 后，下游备货增加将有助于盘面企稳。郑棉整体波动预估区间 12000-13000 元/吨，认为 13000 以下追空的风险收益比不好。长期 而言，四季度或是国内压力最大的时期，明年行情整体谨慎偏乐观。 （1）新棉增产的预期较强，产量预估提升。综合各方反馈和田间 考察，今年彊棉产量预计在 730-780 万吨，即 750 万吨上下，我们 认为实现 750 万吨的概率较大。新棉质量预计将同比提升。南北疆 开秤时间接近，预计 9 月底集中开秤。（2）轧花厂普遍心态谨慎， 尤其北疆失去了抢收的能力和冲动 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The cotton market shows a trend of weakening oscillations. Internationally, the US cotton market is expected to oscillate, while domestically, the Zhengzhou cotton market is expected to oscillate slightly weaker [8][27]. - In September, as new cotton enters the acquisition period, the market focus shifts to the opening price of new cotton. With high expected production in Xinjiang and low enthusiasm among ginning mills for acquisition, large - scale panic buying is not expected. There will be selling hedging pressure on the market as new cotton is listed in large quantities. Although the downstream demand has slightly improved in the peak season, the improvement is limited, and the boosting effect on the market is also limited [27][43]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 International Market Analysis - **US Cotton Market**: With no significant changes in the macro - environment and a high good - quality rate in the current fundamentals, the US cotton market is expected to oscillate [8]. - **US Cotton Growth**: As of September 7, the boll - setting rate was 97%, the flocculation rate was 40%, the harvesting rate was 8%, and the good - quality rate was 54%. The growth was accelerating compared to the previous period, and the progress caught up with the five - year average [8]. - **US Cotton Sales**: As of September 4, the weekly signing volume of 2025/26 US upland cotton was 2.94 tons, a 47% weekly decrease and a 33% decrease compared to the average of the previous four weeks. The weekly shipment volume was 2.95 tons, a 16% weekly decrease and a 2% decrease compared to the average of the previous four weeks [8]. - **CFTC Position**: As of September 5, the number of unpriced contracts of sellers on the ON - CALL 2512 contract decreased by 1671 to 20121, a reduction of 40,000 tons compared to the previous week [8]. - **Brazil**: According to the September 2024/25 production forecast by CONAB, the total cotton production in Brazil is expected to be 4.061 million tons, an increase of 126,000 tons from the previous month [8]. - **India**: From September 4 - 10, the weekly rainfall in the main cotton - producing areas was 66.1mm, 28.3mm higher than the normal level and 17.6mm higher than the same period last year. The cumulative rainfall from June 1 - September 10 was 849mm, 107.5mm higher than the normal level [8]. - **Global Situation**: According to the USDA's August global cotton production and sales forecast, the global cotton production in August was 25.39 million tons, a decrease of 391,000 tons from the previous month. The total consumption decreased by 30,000 tons to 25.68 million tons, and the ending inventory decreased by 742,000 tons to 16.09 million tons [8]. 3.2 Domestic Market Logic Analysis - **Market Outlook**: As new cotton enters the acquisition period in September, the market focus shifts to the opening price of new cotton. The downstream demand improvement is limited, and the market is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [27]. - **Supply Side**: The new - season cotton is growing well, maintaining a harvest expectation. As of mid - August, the national commercial cotton inventory was 1.8202 million tons, at a low level in the same period over the years. As of September 5, the total commercial cotton inventory was 1.4156 million tons, a decrease of 131,400 tons (8.49%) from the previous week [27]. - **Demand Side**: Although it has entered the peak demand season, the downstream demand change is not obvious. As of mid - August, the cotton industrial inventory of cotton textile enterprises was 924,200 tons, and the yarn inventory was 27.23 days, and the gray fabric inventory was 35.14 days. As of September 11, the mainstream spinning mills' operating load was 66.5%, a 0.76% increase from the previous week [27]. 3.3 Option Strategy - **Volatility Judgment**: The HV on the previous day was 10.44697, and the volatility decreased slightly compared to the previous day. - **Option Strategy Recommendation**: The PCR on the previous day was 0.7370, and the trading volume PCR of the main contract was 0.7253. The trading volumes of both call and put options increased today. It is recommended to wait and see [41]. 3.4 Futures Trading Strategy - **Unilateral Trading**: It is expected that the US cotton market will mostly oscillate in the future, and the Zhengzhou cotton market is expected to oscillate slightly weaker. It is recommended to short at high prices [45]. - **Arbitrage**: Wait and see [45]. 3.5 Weekly Data Tracking - **Mid - end Situation**: Data on the operating load of pure cotton yarn mills, full - cotton gray fabric load, yarn inventory days, and gray fabric inventory days are provided, showing the mid - end situation of the cotton industry [52]. - **Cotton Inventory**: Historical data on national commercial cotton inventory, spinning mills' industrial cotton inventory, and reserve inventory are provided [54]. - **Spot - Futures Basis**: Information on the basis of cotton and cotton yarn, including the basis of different contract months and the basis of US cotton, is provided [57].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The 2025/26 global cotton supply - demand report is relatively bullish for the cotton market. Domestically, inventory remains low, market supply is tight, downstream orders have slightly increased, and spinning enterprises' operation rate remains low. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term. [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - Zhengzhou cotton main contract closing price is 13,765 yuan/ton, down 125 yuan; cotton yarn main contract closing price is 19,765 yuan/ton, down 145 yuan. - Cotton futures top 20 net positions are - 28,006 lots, an increase of 6,618 lots; cotton yarn futures top 20 net positions are - 460 lots, a decrease of 70 lots. - Cotton main contract open interest is 502,082 lots, an increase of 10,790 lots; cotton yarn main contract open interest is 18,718 lots, a decrease of 884 lots. - Cotton warehouse receipts are 4,438 sheets, a decrease of 177 sheets; cotton yarn warehouse receipts are 73 sheets, a decrease of 14 sheets. [2] Spot Market - China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex:3128B) is 15,319 yuan/ton; China Yarn Price Index (pure cotton carded yarn 32 - count) is 20,795 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan. - China Imported Cotton Price Index (FCIndexM:1% tariff) is 13,457 yuan/ton, a decrease of 70 yuan; China Imported Cotton Price Index (FCIndexM:sliding - scale tariff) is 14,258 yuan/ton, a decrease of 47 yuan. - Arrival price of imported cotton yarn price index (pure cotton carded yarn 32 - count) is 21,427 yuan/ton, an increase of 8 yuan; arrival price of imported cotton yarn price index (pure cotton combed yarn 32 - count) is 22,780 yuan/ton, an increase of 9 yuan. [2] Upstream Situation - National cotton sowing area is 2,838.3 thousand hectares, an increase of 48.3 thousand hectares; national cotton output is 6160 thousand tons, an increase of 540 thousand tons. [2] Industry Situation - Cotton - yarn price difference is 5,476 yuan/ton, an increase of 11 yuan; national industrial inventory of cotton is 870 thousand tons, an increase of 13 thousand tons. - Cotton import volume is 50 thousand tons, an increase of 20 thousand tons; cotton yarn import volume is 110 thousand tons, unchanged. - Imported cotton profit is 1,005 yuan/ton, a decrease of 71 yuan; national commercial inventory of cotton is 148.170 thousand tons, a decrease of 70.810 thousand tons. [2] Downstream Situation - Yarn inventory days are 27.67 days, a decrease of 0.69 days;坯布 inventory days are 36.14 days, a decrease of 1.1 days. - Monthly cloth output is 2.7 billion meters, a decrease of 0.79 billion meters; monthly yarn output is 1.9915 million tons, a decrease of 73.5 thousand tons. - Monthly clothing and clothing accessories export value is 1,516,175.9 thousand US dollars, a decrease of 10,495.5 thousand US dollars; monthly textile yarn, fabric and product export value is 1,160,400.9 thousand US dollars, a decrease of 44,419.8 thousand US dollars. [2] Option Market - Implied volatility of cotton at - the - money call option is 11.13%, a decrease of 0.84%; implied volatility of cotton at - the - money put option is 11.12%, a decrease of 0.84%. - 20 - day historical volatility of cotton is 9.93%, an increase of 0.32%; 60 - day historical volatility of cotton is 7.16%, an increase of 0.04%. [2] Industry News - National commercial inventory is in a downward trend. As of September 12, 2025, total cotton commercial inventory is 1.2718 million tons, a decrease of 143.8 thousand tons (a decrease of 10.16%) from last week. - ICE cotton futures closed lower on Wednesday, with the December contract down 0.43 cents, or 0.64%, at 67.25 cents per pound. - The USDA's September global cotton supply - demand report shows that in the 2025/26 season, global cotton output is expected to be 25.622 million tons, an increase of 231 thousand tons from last month; global consumption is expected to be 25.872 million tons, an increase of 183 thousand tons; global ending inventory is expected to be 15.924 million tons, a decrease of 168 thousand tons. [2] View Summary - The 2025/26 global cotton output and consumption are expected to increase, and the ending inventory is expected to decrease, which is relatively bullish for the cotton market. - Domestically, inventory remains low, market supply is tight, downstream orders have slightly increased, and spinning enterprises' operation rate remains low. [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current downstream market consumption is still average during the "Golden September and Silver October" consumption season, and there is an expectation of a bumper harvest in the new domestic cotton season. However, the current domestic cotton inventory is at a historically low level, with both bullish and bearish factors intertwined. - In the short - term, Zhengzhou cotton prices rose and then fell, facing significant selling pressure, and cotton prices may continue to fluctuate at high levels [9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Market Review** - **External Market**: In August, the price of US cotton futures showed a weak oscillation. As of August 29, the closing price of the December contract of US cotton futures was 66.53 cents per pound, a decrease of 0.69 cents per pound from the previous month, a decline of 1.03%. The spread between the December and March contracts of US cotton weakened slightly, reaching - 1.9 cents per pound, a decrease of 0.52 cents per pound from the previous month. - **Domestic Market**: In August, the price of Zhengzhou cotton rose. As of August 29, the closing price of the January contract of Zhengzhou cotton was 14,240 yuan per ton, an increase of 400 yuan per ton from the previous month, a rise of 2.89%. The China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex) 3128B was 15,328 yuan per ton, an increase of 3 yuan per ton from the previous month. The basis weakened, reaching 1,128 yuan per ton, a decrease of 453 yuan per ton from the previous month. The spread between the January and May contracts of Zhengzhou cotton decreased slightly, reaching 40 yuan per ton, a decrease of 25 yuan per ton from the previous month [9]. - **Industry Information** - As of the week of August 29, the spinning mill operating rate was 65.9%, a decrease of 3.4 percentage points from the same period last year; the weaving mill operating rate was 37.2%, a decrease of 8.4 percentage points from the same period last year; the weekly commercial cotton inventory was 1.55 million tons, a decrease of 360,000 tons from the same period last year. - At the end of August, the National Development and Reform Commission announced matters related to the electronic application for the processing trade import quota of preferential tariff rates outside the cotton tariff quota in 2025. The total volume of the sliding - scale duty processing trade quota for cotton imports in 2025 is 200,000 tons. - According to the August forecast data of the US Department of Agriculture, the global cotton production forecast for the 2025/26 season is 25.39 million tons, a decrease of 390,000 tons from the July forecast. Among them, the US production forecast was reduced by 300,000 tons to 2.88 million tons due to a 15% reduction in the planted area compared to the July forecast; the Chinese production forecast was increased by 110,000 tons to 6.86 million tons; the production forecasts of Brazil and India remained unchanged. The global consumption forecast was reduced by 30,000 tons to 25.69 million tons, and the ending inventory was reduced by 740,000 tons to 16.09 million tons. The US inventory - to - consumption ratio was reduced by 6.12 percentage points to 26.28% [9]. - **Viewpoints and Strategies** - Based on fundamental analysis, the short - term cotton prices may continue to fluctuate at high levels. The short - term assessment of various factors shows that the basis weakened slightly, the monthly spread oscillated, the spinning immediate profit remained inverted, and the marginal changes in the Zhejiang - Xinjiang spread and cost were not significant [9][10]. 3.2 Spread Trend Review The report presents multiple spread trend charts, including the China Cotton Price Index, the basis trend of the Zhengzhou cotton main contract, import profit, Zhengzhou cotton monthly spreads, US cotton contract spreads, and external market spreads, to show the historical trends and changes of these spreads [26][27][29]. 3.3 Domestic Market Situation The report shows multiple charts related to the domestic cotton market, including domestic cotton production (processing and inspection quantity, processing volume), cotton import volume (monthly and annual cumulative), US export contract quantity to China,棉纱 import volume, downstream operating rates (spinning and weaving mills), national sales progress, cotton inventory (weekly commercial and monthly commercial + industrial), and spinning mill raw material and finished product inventories [38][40][42]. 3.4 International Market Situation - **CFTC Positions**: Charts of CFTC fund net positions and commercial net positions are presented [58]. - **US Situation**: The report shows the US cotton planting situation (proportion of non - drought - affected planting area, excellent - good rate), production situation (bi - weekly and cumulative processing volume), production and planting area forecasts, export contract progress, export shipment volume, supply surplus/shortage, and inventory - to - consumption ratio [60][62][64]. - **Brazil Situation**: Charts of Brazil's cotton planting area, production, export volume, supply surplus/shortage, and inventory - to - consumption ratio are presented [73][76]. - **India Situation**: The report shows India's cotton planting area, production, consumption, import and export volume, supply surplus/shortage, and inventory - to - consumption ratio [81][84].

Report Investment Rating - The report does not provide an investment rating for the cotton and cotton yarn industry. Core Viewpoints - New cotton is entering the concentrated boll - opening stage in Xinjiang, with the expected picking time earlier than last year. Attention should be paid to rainfall in September. Continuous rainy days may affect cotton quality and harvest progress. Currently, the weather forecast shows a possible temperature drop in early September in Xinjiang and precipitation in northern Xinjiang in the first ten - day period, which may be unfavorable for boll - opening. [5] - The National Development and Reform Commission issued an additional 200,000 - ton tariff - rate quota for cotton imports under processing trade to supplement market supply before new cotton is on the market, which is in line with market expectations. The quota is issued based on import contracts, and the quota certificate is valid for 2 months after issuance, having a limited impact on the market. Domestic inventory remains tight before new cotton arrives. [5] - With the arrival of the "Golden September and Silver October" season, downstream finished - product inventories are further reduced, but profits have not significantly recovered. Downstream confidence is insufficient, and orders are still lacking. [5] - From August 27, the US will impose an additional 25% tariff on India. In response, India has extended the exemption of cotton import tariffs from September 30 to December 31. From January to June this year, the US imported about 276,400 tons of cotton products from India, accounting for about 19% of its total imports. Under the significant tariff increase, India's exports may face challenges, and future orders may shift. [5] - The low - inventory situation before new cotton is on the market still supports cotton prices. The strategy is to go long on dips, and attention should be paid to the peak sales season of downstream products and the time when new cotton comes onto the market. [6] Summary of Different Regions Domestic Market Supply - As of August 21, the national new cotton sales rate was 98.1%, 5.3 percentage points higher than the same period last year and 7.9 percentage points higher than the average of the past four years. [1] Import - In July, China's cotton import volume was 50,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 20,000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 150,000 tons. The cotton yarn import volume was 110,000 tons, unchanged from the previous month and a year - on - year decrease of 20,000 tons. The cotton cloth import volume was 3,981.43 tons, a month - on - month increase of 29.16% and a year - on - year decrease of 10.57%. [1] Demand - In July, domestic retail sales of textiles and clothing were 96.1 billion yuan, a month - on - month decrease of 24.63% and a year - on - year increase of 1.80%. The export value of textiles and clothing in July was 26.766 billion US dollars, a month - on - month decrease of 2.01% and a year - on - year decrease of 0.06%. [1] Inventory - As of August 15, the total industrial and commercial cotton inventory in China was 2.7444 million tons, a decrease of 343,800 tons from the end of July. Among them, commercial inventory was 1.8202 million tons, a decrease of 369,600 tons from the end of July, and industrial inventory was 924,200 tons, an increase of 25,800 tons from the end of July. [1] International Market US Market - **Supply**: As of August 24, the boll - setting rate of cotton in the US was 81%, 7 percentage points behind the same period last year and 6 percentage points behind the five - year average. The boll - opening rate was 20%, 4 percentage points behind the same period last year and 2 percentage points behind the five - year average. The overall good - quality rate of cotton plants was 54%, a 1 - percentage - point decrease from the previous month and a 14 - percentage - point increase from the same period last year. [2] - **Demand**: From August 15 - 21, the net signing volume of US 2025/2026 - season upland cotton was 40,665 tons, a significant month - on - month increase of 70%. The shipment volume of upland cotton was 25,560 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 9%. The net signing volume of Pima cotton was 885 tons, and the shipment volume of Pima cotton was 3,175 tons. There were no signings for the 2026/2027 - season upland cotton and Pima cotton this week. [2] Southeast Asian Market - **Supply**: As of August 25, the sown area of new - season cotton in India reached 10.85 million hectares, a year - on - year decrease of about 2.6%. [2] - **Demand**: In July, Vietnam's textile and clothing export value was 3.911 billion US dollars, a month - on - month increase of 8.7% and a year - on - year increase of 5.3%. In June, Bangladesh's clothing export value was 2.788 billion US dollars, a month - on - month decrease of 28.87% and a year - on - year decrease of 6.31%. In July, India's clothing export value was 1.34 billion US dollars, a month - on - month increase of 2.2% and a year - on - year increase of 4.8%. In June, Pakistan's textile and clothing export value was 1.522 billion US dollars, a month - on - month decrease of 0.60% and a year - on - year increase of 7.59%. [2] Futures Market - **Futures Price Changes**: The closing price of Zhengzhou Cotton 01 was 14,240 yuan, with a weekly increase of 210 yuan and a rise rate of 1.5%. The closing price of Zhengzhou Cotton 05 was 14,200 yuan, with a weekly increase of 210 yuan and a rise rate of 1.5%. The closing price of Zhengzhou Cotton 09 was 13,790 yuan, with a weekly increase of 30 yuan and a rise rate of 0.22%. [19][23] - **Spot Price Changes**: The price of CC Index 3128B was 15,328 yuan, with an increase of 85 yuan and a rise rate of 0.56%. The price of CC Index 2227B was 13,412 yuan, with an increase of 71 yuan and a rise rate of 0.53%. The price of CC Index 2129B was 15,603 yuan, with an increase of 75 yuan and a rise rate of 0.48%. [23] - **Spread Changes**: The CF1 - 5 spread was 40 yuan, with no change. The CF5 - 9 spread was 410 yuan, an increase of 180 yuan. The CF9 - 1 spread was - 450 yuan, a decrease of 180 yuan. [23] - **Import Price Changes**: The price of FC Index M was 13,492 yuan, a decrease of 14 yuan and a decline rate of 0.1%. The price of FCY Index C32s was 21,245 yuan, an increase of 13 yuan and a rise rate of 0.06%. [23] - **Cotton Yarn Price Changes**: The closing price of cotton yarn futures was 20,140 yuan, with a weekly increase of 80 yuan and a rise rate of 0.4%. The spot price of cotton yarn was 20,780 yuan, with an increase of 60 yuan and a rise rate of 0.29%. [23]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core View of the Report The report indicates that the demand for cotton has not changed significantly, and cotton prices are expected to be mainly volatile. In the international market, US cotton is expected to move in a volatile manner, while in the domestic market, short - term Zhengzhou cotton is expected to show a slightly stronger volatile trend [1][8][25]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 International Market Analysis - **US Cotton Market**: There are no obvious changes in the macro - aspect. Fundamentally, the current good - to - excellent rate is at a relatively high level in the same period over the years, so the US cotton trend is expected to be mainly volatile [8]. - **US Cotton Growth**: As of August 17, the budding rate of US cotton was 97%, the boll - setting rate was 73%, the boll - opening rate was 13%, and the good - to - excellent rate was 55%. The growth progress was relatively slow, but the good - to - excellent rate was higher than the historical average [8]. - **US Cotton Sales**: As of the week ending August 14, the weekly signing volume of 2025/26 US upland cotton was 24,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 56%; the weekly shipment volume was 28,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 14% [8]. - **CFTC Position**: As of August 15, the number of unsold contracts of sellers on the ON - CALL 2512 contract increased by 525 to 21,948, and the total number of unsold contracts of sellers in the 25/26 season increased by 876 to 44,381, equivalent to 1.01 million tons [8]. - **Brazil**: According to CONAB's August report, the total cotton output in Brazil in the 2024/25 season is expected to be 3.935 million tons, a decrease of 3,000 tons from the previous month [8]. - **India**: From August 14 to 20, the weekly rainfall in the main cotton - producing areas in India was 108.2 mm, higher than the normal level and the same period last year. The cumulative rainfall during the rainy season was about 11% higher [8]. - **Global Situation**: According to the latest USDA August forecast, the global cotton output in August was 25.39 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 391,000 tons; the total consumption decreased by 30,000 tons to 25.68 million tons; the ending inventory decreased by 742,000 tons to 16.09 million tons [8]. 3.2 Domestic Market Analysis - **Supply Side**: As of mid - August, the national commercial cotton inventory in China was 1.8202 million tons, at a low level in the same period over the years. The sales volume has increased, and the weekly inventory shows a downward trend [25]. - **Demand Side**: It is currently the off - season for market consumption. As of mid - August, the industrial inventory of cotton in cotton textile enterprises was 924,200 tons, and the yarn and fabric inventories were 27.23 days and 35.14 days respectively. The weekly data shows that the operating rate of spinning mills has increased slightly [25]. - **Comprehensive Outlook**: In the short term, the impact of the macro - level is expected to weaken. Fundamentally, the cotton supply is still relatively tight, and the demand is expected to improve in August. Short - term Zhengzhou cotton is expected to show a slightly stronger volatile trend [25]. 3.3 Option Trading Strategy - **Volatility Judgment**: The 120 - day HV was 10.2496 yesterday, and the volatility increased slightly compared with the previous day [39]. - **Option Strategy Recommendation**: Yesterday, the position PCR of the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton was 0.7867, and the trading volume PCR was 0.6430. Today, the trading volumes of both call and put options increased. The recommendation is to sell put options [39]. 3.4 Futures Trading Strategy - **Trading Logic**: The short - term impact of tariffs may weaken. Fundamentally, the cotton supply is tight, and the demand is expected to improve in August. The short - term market is expected to be slightly stronger but with limited upward space [41]. - **Specific Strategies**: Unilateral trading: It is expected that the US cotton will move in a volatile manner, and Zhengzhou cotton is expected to show a slightly stronger volatile trend. Arbitrage: Stay on the sidelines [43]. 3.5 Weekly Data Tracking - **Mid - end Situation**: Information on the operating load of pure - cotton yarn mills, full - cotton fabric load, yarn inventory days, and fabric inventory days is presented through historical data charts [50]. - **Cotton Inventory**: Data on national commercial cotton inventory, industrial inventory of spinning mills, and reserve inventory over the years are provided [52]. - **Spot - Futures Basis**: Information on the basis of cotton in January, May, and September, as well as the basis of US cotton and the basis between cotton yarn C32S spot and the active contract of Zhengzhou cotton yarn is presented [55].

Report Information - Report Title: Cotton (Yarn) Market Weekly Report - Cotton Fluctuates, Awaits Demand Improvement [2] - Report Date: August 22, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Zhang Xin [3] - Researcher Qualification: Futures Practitioner Qualification Number F03109641, Futures Investment Consulting Practitioner Certificate Z0018457 [3] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - This week, the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton 2601 closed lower with a weekly decline of about 0.64%, and the cotton yarn futures 2511 contract fell 0.62% [7][20] - Domestically, cotton is in a de - stocking state, supply is tight before the new cotton is listed, and spot prices are firm. Although inland textile enterprises have no profit, there are expectations for the "Golden September and Silver October" demand peak season, and the operating rate has slightly increased. The overall cotton planting area in China increased in 2025, and attention should be paid to the impact of weather on new crop growth [7] - In general, tight supply of old crops and expected demand improvement are expected to boost the short - term cotton trend, while the medium - term trend is suppressed by the expected increase in new cotton production. It is recommended to go long on dips in the short - term and control risks [7] Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Highlights Summary - **Market Analysis**: Zhengzhou cotton main 2601 contract and cotton yarn futures 2511 contract both declined this week [7][20] - **Market Outlook**: Tight supply of old crops, expected demand improvement, new crop growth affected by weather. Short - term trend positive, medium - term suppressed by new crop increase [7] - **Future Trading Tips**: Pay attention to foreign cotton prices, macro factors, trade policies, and weather factors [7] 2. Futures and Spot Market - **US Cotton Market**: The price of the December US cotton contract fell this week with a weekly decline of about 0.19%. As of August 12, 2025, non - commercial long positions decreased by 2.66% month - on - month, non - commercial short positions increased by 1.04% month - on - month, and the net position decreased by 8.35% month - on - month [10] - **Foreign Cotton Spot Market**: The US current market - year cotton export sales increased by 105,400 bales, and shipments were 123,300 bales. New sales were 138,800 bales, lower than last week. As of August 18, 2025, the Cotlook:A index was 79.15 cents per pound, down 0.31% month - on - month [15] - **Futures Market**: Zhengzhou cotton main 2601 contract and cotton yarn futures 2511 contract declined. As of this week, the net position of the top 20 in cotton futures was - 48,516, and in cotton yarn futures was - 380 lots. Cotton futures warehouse receipts were 7,198 lots, and cotton yarn futures warehouse receipts were 64 lots [20][26][33] - **Futures and Spot Price Difference**: The price difference between Zhengzhou cotton 1 - 5 contracts was 40 yuan/ton, and the price difference between cotton 3128B and cotton yarn C32S was 5,457 yuan/ton [35] - **Spot Market**: As of August 22, 2025, the spot price index of cotton 3128B was 15,243 yuan/ton, and the Chinese cotton yarn spot C32S index price was 20,700 yuan/ton. As of August 19, 2025, CY index:OEC10s was 14,800 yuan/ton [41][52] - **Futures Basis**: The basis between the cotton 3128B price index and the Zhengzhou cotton 2601 contract was + 1,213 yuan/ton, and the basis between the cotton yarn C32S spot price and the cotton yarn futures 2511 contract was 640 yuan/ton [47] - **Imported Cotton (Yarn) Cost**: As of August 19, 2025, the 1% quota port pick - up price of imported cotton increased by 0.38% month - on - month, and the sliding - scale duty port pick - up price increased by 0.20% month - on - month. The port pick - up prices of imported cotton yarn C32S, C21S, and JC32S all declined slightly [59] - **Imported Cotton Cost - Profit**: As of August 19, 2025, the cost - profit of imported cotton sliding - scale duty port pick - up price (M) was 894 yuan/ton, and that of 1% quota port pick - up price was 1,650 yuan/ton [63] 3. Industry Situation - **Supply Side - Commercial Inventory**: As of July 31, 2025, the national commercial cotton inventory was 2.1898 million tons, down 22.62% month - on - month, and the industrial cotton inventory was 898,400 tons, up 1.85% month - on - month [67] - **Supply Side - Import Volume**: In July 2025, China's cotton import volume was 50,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 73.2%. From January to July, the cumulative cotton import volume was 520,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 74.2%. In July 2025, the imported cotton yarn volume was 110,000 tons, and from January to June, the cumulative imported cotton yarn volume was 780,000 tons [71] - **Mid - end Industry - Demand Side**: As of July 31, 2025, the yarn inventory days were 27.67 days, down 2.43% month - on - month, and the grey cloth inventory days were 36.14 days, down 2.95% month - on - month [75] - **Terminal Consumption - Demand Side - Export**: As of July 31, 2025, the export value of textile yarns, fabrics and products was 1.1604009 billion US dollars, down 3.69% month - on - month, and the export value of clothing and accessories was 1.5161759 billion US dollars, down 0.69% month - on - month [79] - **Terminal Consumption - Demand Side - Domestic Retail**: As of June 30, 2025, the cumulative retail sales of clothing were 534.13 billion yuan, up 20.42% month - on - month, and the cumulative year - on - year was 2.5%, down 3.85% month - on - month [83] 4. Options and Stock Market - Related Market - **Options Market**: Implied volatility of at - the - money cotton options this week [84] - **Stock Market - Xinjiang Nongkai Agriculture Development Co., Ltd.**: P/E ratio trend [89]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The market has significant differences in opinion regarding whether the peak seasons of "Golden September and Silver October" will be prosperous. The 14,000 mark for Zhengzhou cotton is crucial. If it stabilizes above this level, there is potential for further upward movement; otherwise, there may be more room for decline [4]. - The overall situation of the cotton market is complex, with various factors presenting both positive and negative impacts [4][5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Previous Day's Review No content related to the previous day's review is provided. 3.2 Daily Hints - **Fundamentals**: Different institutions have different forecasts for the 2025/26 cotton season. ICAC predicts a production of 25.9 million tons and consumption of 25.6 million tons; USDA forecasts production of 25.392 million tons, consumption of 25.688 million tons, and an ending inventory of 16.093 million tons; the Ministry of Agriculture in China estimates production of 6.25 million tons, imports of 1.4 million tons, consumption of 7.4 million tons, and an ending inventory of 8.23 million tons. In July, textile and clothing exports were $26.77 billion, a year - on - year decrease of 0.1%. Cotton imports were 50,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 73.2%, and cotton yarn imports were 110,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 15.38% [4]. - **Basis**: The national average price of spot 3128b cotton is 15,243 yuan, with a basis of 1,143 yuan (for the 01 contract), indicating a premium over futures [4]. - **Inventory**: The estimated ending inventory for the 2025/26 season by the Chinese Ministry of Agriculture in July is 8.23 million tons, which is a bearish factor [4]. - **Market Chart**: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the K - line is above the 20 - day moving average, which is a bullish signal [4]. - **Main Position**: The position is bullish, but the net long position is decreasing, and the main trend is unclear [4]. - **Expectations**: Zhengzhou cotton fell rapidly during the night session, breaking below the 14,000 mark. The 14,000 level is critical for future price movements [4]. 3.3 Today's Focus No content related to today's focus is provided. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **USDA Forecasts**: There are differences in production, consumption, imports, and ending inventories among different countries and regions in the 2024/25 and 2025/26 seasons. For example, China's production in August 2025/26 is forecasted to be 6.858 million tons, consumption is 8.165 million tons, imports are 1.154 million tons, and ending inventory is 7.625 million tons [10][11]. - **ICAC Global Balance Sheet**: In the 2025/26 season, global production is 25.9 million tons, consumption is 25.6 million tons, ending inventory is 17.1 million tons, and global trade volume is 9.7 million tons. The price forecast for the Cotlook A Index is 57 - 94 cents per pound [12]. - **Ministry of Agriculture Data**: In the 2025/26 season, China's production is 6.25 million tons, imports are 1.4 million tons, consumption is 7.4 million tons, and ending inventory is 8.23 million tons. The domestic average price of 3128B cotton is expected to be between 15,000 - 17,000 yuan per ton, and the Cotlook A Index is expected to be between 75 - 100 cents per pound [14]. 3.5 Position Data No content related to position data is provided.

Report Information - Report Title: Cotton Weekly Report (8.11 - 8.15) - Author: Wang Mingwei from Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department - Contact: 0575 - 85226759 [1] Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report Core Views - This week, cotton prices rebounded, with the 01 contract reclaiming the 14,000 mark. The upcoming "Golden September and Silver October" consumption peak has strengthened market expectations. Unless initial orders are scarce, short - term trends are likely to be strong, though a rise - then - fall scenario is possible [4]. - The USDA's August report significantly lowered cotton production, which is bullish. The Zhengzhou Cotton 01 contract should be watched for its battle at the 14,000 mark. If it stabilizes above 14,000, there is potential for further upward movement; otherwise, if it drops below 14,000, the subsequent trend will be weak [5]. - Bullish factors include reduced previous Sino - US tariffs and lower commercial inventories year - on - year. Bearish factors are the postponed trade negotiations, high current export tariffs to the US, the consumption off - season, a general decline in foreign trade orders, increased inventories, and the impending large - scale listing of new cotton [6]. Summary by Catalog 1. Previous Day Review - This week, cotton prices rebounded, with the 01 contract back above 14,000. The ICAC's August report shows 25/26 annual production of 25.9 million tons and consumption of 25.6 million tons. The USDA's August report indicates 25/26 annual production of 25.392 million tons, consumption of 25.688 million tons, and an ending inventory of 16.093 million tons. In July, textile and clothing exports were $26.77 billion, a 0.1% year - on - year decrease. In June, China imported 30,000 tons of cotton, an 82.1% year - on - year decrease, and 110,000 tons of cotton yarn, a 0.1% year - on - year increase. The Ministry of Agriculture's July 25/26 forecast shows production of 6.25 million tons, imports of 1.4 million tons, consumption of 7.4 million tons, and an ending inventory of 8.23 million tons [4]. 2. Daily Hints - The USDA's August report significantly lowered cotton production, which is bullish. The Zhengzhou Cotton 01 contract should be watched for its battle at the 14,000 mark. If it stabilizes above 14,000, there is potential for further upward movement; otherwise, if it drops below 14,000, the subsequent trend will be weak [5]. 3. Today's Focus - Bullish factors: Reduced previous Sino - US tariffs and lower commercial inventories year - on - year. Bearish factors: Postponed trade negotiations, high current export tariffs to the US, the consumption off - season, a general decline in foreign trade orders, increased inventories, and the impending large - scale listing of new cotton [6]. 4. Fundamental Data - **USDA Global Cotton Supply - Demand Forecast**: For 2024/25, production in China decreased by 10.9 tons year - on - year, India decreased by 10.8 tons, Brazil increased by 27.3 tons, etc. Consumption in China decreased by 10.9 tons year - on - year, Pakistan increased by 2.2 tons, etc. [11]. - **ICAC Global Cotton Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: In the 2025/26 year, global production is 25.9 million tons, consumption is 25.6 million tons, ending inventory is 17.1 million tons, and global trade volume is 9.7 million tons. The price forecast for the Cotlook A Index is 57 - 94 cents per pound [13]. - **Ministry of Agriculture's Forecast**: For 2025/26, production is 6.25 million tons, imports are 1.4 million tons, consumption is 7.4 million tons, and ending inventory is 8.23 million tons [15]. 5. Position Data - No position data provided in the report