Kraemer表示，拉加德重申当前利率水平处于"舒适区间"，进一步强化了维持利率稳定的理由。尽管注 意到因贸易妥协和中东停火使经济风险有所下降，拉加德仍避免将整体经济风险描述为向上倾斜。 新华财经北京10月31日电德国商业银行经济学家Joerg Kraemer在研报中指出，欧洲央行行长拉加德在新 闻发布会上释放了未来数月不会下调关键利率的信号。 Kraemer称："我们继续预期欧洲央行将把存款利率维持在2%至少直至明年底。" （文章来源：新华财经） ...

·野村证券：撤回对美联储12月再次降息的预期 ·美联储主席候选人里德：鲍威尔比预期更鹰 12月跳过降息的可能性增大 ·中金研报称，中金认为，美联储在10月会议如预期降息25个基点，但鲍威尔的言论明显偏"鹰"，暗示 12月降息绝非铁板钉钉。这表明美联储内部支持暂停降息的观点正在占据上风。展望未来，尽管联储仍 具备一定的宽松空间，但降息节奏可能放缓，不宜抱过度乐观预期。同时，本轮降息的刺激效应或将弱 于以往周期，部分原因在于"再融资效应"明显减弱。美联储还宣布将于12月结束量化紧缩（QT），这 更多是出于技术性考量，不宜过度解读；在政策利率仍具有较大下调空间的情况下，购买非常规的金融 资产的必要性不大。"自然情况"下，测算本轮美联储仍有三次的降息空间。当前美国实际利率和自然利 率之差为0.8%，再降三次可以使得融资成本和投资回报率"打平"，对应名义中性利率3.5%。短期降息 路径将更多取决于政府关门和数据，比如政府关门何时解决以披露新的就业数据，后续路径也受通胀走 势影响。相比之下，新联储主席及美联储独立性是明年降息路径的最大变数，有可能加大2026年第二季 度后政策不确定性。 ·丹斯克银行表示，欧洲央行将在10 ...

智通财经APP获悉，欧洲央行管理委员会成员、爱尔兰央行行长Gabriel Makhlouf驳斥了外界对欧元区 通胀率可能低于2%的担忧，称他实际上更担心通胀率会高于该阈值。 尽管欧洲央行预计明年的通胀率将暂时低于2%的目标，但Gabriel Makhlouf表示，只要中期通胀预期仍 锚定在2%附近，这就不是问题。他指出，今年食品通胀率呈现上升趋势，目前约为3%，这是一个需要 特别关注的领域。 Gabriel Makhlouf表示："总体而言，我更关注那些将推高通胀的压力，而不是那些会抑制增长的压 力。""我更担心通胀率会高于、而非低于2%。" Gabriel Makhlouf的这番言论突显出，尽管欧元区通胀已接近目标水平，但政策制定者仍对经济面临的 不确定性保持警惕。他们关注的问题包括关税、财政支出增加以及俄乌冲突，这些因素都可能在不同方 向上推动通胀变化。 多位欧洲央行官员此前表示，他们认为物价前景的风险大致平衡。Gabriel Makhlouf则持不同观点，他 表示自己认为通胀风险"略微偏向上行"。他还表示，近期经济数据让他对欧洲央行9月的预测"更有信 心"。欧洲央行的这份最新预测预计，2025年、202 ...

欧元/美元目前面临一些抛售压力，回吐了部分早前涨幅，并在美元有所回升的推动下，回落至1.1740-1.1730区间。与此同时，美国9月份早些时候公布的数 据显示，ADP报告令人沮丧，而ISM制造业PMI数据略有改善。 IC外汇平台技术面概述欧元/美元 欧元/美元难以坚定上涨，当前的上行阻力位出现在1.1800。 与此同时，多头面临的下一个阻力位是2025年1.1918的上限（9月17日）。若能有效突破该区域，则有望再次测试1.2000的心理关口。 相反，跌破周低点1.1645（9月25日）可能使100日简单移动平均线（SMA）的临时位置1.1605暴露出来，之后是周低点1.1574（8月27日）和8月低点1.1391 （8月1日）。 动量指标依然涨跌互现：相对强弱指数（RSI）略高于50的门槛，这意味着买家正在失去控制。此外，平均方向指数（ADX）接近14，表明趋势目前缺乏力 度。 什么因素可能影响走势？ 欧元/美元短期内或有进一步走高的空间，但持久的突破需要催化剂，例如美联储意外放鸽、对美国资产的需求减弱、欧洲央行更明确地表示愿意维持利率 不变，或者贸易争端取得进展。 美联储试图站稳脚跟 9月17日，美联储 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The expectation of interest rate cuts in the US within the year is further strengthened, with the A - share market rising on heavy volume, and the bond market showing fluctuations. The prices of various commodities are influenced by macro - economic data, industry fundamentals, and geopolitical risks, showing different trends such as high - level oscillations, upward or downward trends [2][3]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs 3.1 Macro - Overseas: The non - over - expected CPI and cold initial jobless claims in the US in August strengthened the interest rate cut trading. The US 8 - month CPI was 2.9% year - on - year, core CPI was 3.1%, both in line with expectations and flat compared to July. The initial jobless claims rose to 263,000, hitting a more than two - year high. The market pricing of three interest rate cuts within the year was strengthened, the US dollar index fell to 97.5, the 10Y US Treasury yield dropped to the 4.0% mark, and US stocks reached new highs. The eurozone central bank maintained interest rates unchanged in September and raised growth and inflation expectations [2]. - Domestic: The A - share market rose on heavy volume, with over 4000 stocks rising and the trading volume reaching 2.4 trillion. The ChiNext and STAR Market led the gains. The bond market fluctuated sharply, with the unilateral rise of A - shares suppressing the bond market, but the marginal loosening of the capital side and the discussion of the central bank's restart of bond - buying drove the bond market to stop falling and rebound [3]. 3.2 Precious Metals - International precious metal futures prices closed mixed on Thursday. COMEX gold futures fell 0.23% to $3673.40 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures rose 1.12% to $42.07 per ounce. The market's expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut was strengthened, but the international gold price slightly declined due to long - position closing. It is expected that gold and silver prices will maintain a high - level oscillation before the Fed's interest rate cut on the 18th [4][5]. 3.3 Copper - On Thursday, the main contract of Shanghai copper oscillated upwards, and London copper approached the previous high of the year. The consumption in the domestic peak season is expected to return, and the market continues to bet on 2 - 3 interest rate cuts within the year. It is expected that copper prices will enter an oscillating upward trend in the short term [6][7]. 3.4 Aluminum - On Thursday, the main contract of Shanghai aluminum closed at 20,915 yuan/ton, up 0.63%. The LME closed at $2622/ton, up 0.21%. The social inventories of aluminum ingots and aluminum rods are both in the process of destocking, indicating that the peak - season consumption is gradually being realized. The short - term macro - environment and fundamentals are both positive, and aluminum prices will continue to show a strong performance [8][9]. 3.5 Alumina - On Thursday, the main contract of alumina futures closed at 2945 yuan/ton, up 0.79%. The supply - side pressure of alumina still exists, and the market is dominated by a bearish atmosphere. It continues to be under pressure. Attention should be paid to the cost support [10]. 3.6 Zinc - On Thursday, the main contract of Shanghai zinc oscillated narrowly during the day and shifted slightly upward at night. The social inventory in China continues to increase, which exerts pressure on zinc prices, but the inventory accumulation speed has slowed down. With the gradual recovery of consumption, destocking is still expected. Zinc prices will operate in a low - level oscillation in the short term [11]. 3.7 Lead - On Thursday, the main contract of Shanghai lead oscillated during the day and opened lower and moved higher at night. The high inventory exerts pressure on lead prices. It is expected that lead prices will maintain a weak oscillation before consumption improves [12]. 3.8 Tin - On Thursday, the main contract of Shanghai tin oscillated horizontally during the day and showed a strong oscillation at night. The low - level LME inventory still supports tin prices. It is expected that tin prices will follow the non - ferrous metal sector to repair with a strong oscillation in the short term [13][14]. 3.9 Industrial Silicon - On Thursday, the main contract of industrial silicon rebounded from a low level. The supply side shows a passive contraction trend, and the demand side has different performances in each link. The industrial silicon social inventory continues to decline, and the spot market stabilizes. It is expected that the futures price will maintain an oscillation in the short term [15][16]. 3.10 Lithium Carbonate - On Thursday, the price of lithium carbonate oscillated, and the spot price weakened. The short - term market still focuses on the resource game around the lithium mine event. Although the spot inventory is being destocked, more resources are flowing to the exchange. The lithium price may oscillate around the resource game [17]. 3.11 Nickel - On Thursday, the nickel price oscillated strongly. The US labor market shows signs of weakness, and the inflation pressure slows down. The market's expectation of the Fed's subsequent interest rate cut path is more dovish. The nickel price may oscillate strongly driven by the macro - environment [18][19]. 3.12 Crude Oil - On Thursday, the oil price oscillated. The views of OPEC and IEA are divergent. The market may be more inclined to the IEA's view, and the expectation of supply surplus may put pressure on oil prices in the medium and long term. However, short - term geopolitical risks are rising, and it is expected that the oil price will oscillate [20][21]. 3.13 Steel (Screw and Coil) - On Thursday, steel futures oscillated weakly. The steel production decreased, the inventory continued to accumulate, and the supply - demand relationship was not good. It is expected that the steel price will oscillate at a low level [22][23]. 3.14 Iron Ore - On Thursday, iron ore futures oscillated and declined. The iron ore price is affected by poor terminal demand and weak steel prices. The supply side is shrinking, and there is still a replenishment expectation in mid - to - late September. It is expected that iron ore will oscillate [24]. 3.15 Bean and Rapeseed Meal - On Thursday, the 01 contract of soybean meal rose 0.78%, and the 01 contract of rapeseed meal rose 0.98%. The market expects the NOPA's soybean crushing volume in August to reach a record high for the same period. The net sales of US soybeans for export are slow. It is expected that the domestic continuous meal will oscillate in the short term [25][26]. 3.16 Palm Oil - On Thursday, the 01 contract of palm oil fell 0.11%. High - frequency data shows that the production of Malaysian palm oil in early September decreased month - on - month, providing support for prices. It is expected that palm oil will oscillate and adjust in the short term [27][28]. 3.17 Metal Trading Data - The report provides the closing prices, price changes, price change percentages, trading volumes, and positions of various metal futures contracts on September 11, including SHFE copper, LME copper, SHFE aluminum, etc. [29] 3.18 Industrial Data - The report presents detailed industrial data for various metals such as copper, nickel, zinc, etc., including price changes, inventory changes, and basis changes from September 10 to 11 [30][31][32][33][34][35][36][37]

Group 1 - The U.S. inflation data for August met expectations, leading to increased bets on interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, with traders anticipating at least two cuts by the end of the year, and possibly three [1] - The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose to 2.9% year-on-year in August, the highest level in seven months, while the core CPI remained stable at 3.1% [1] - The European Central Bank decided to keep interest rates unchanged for the second consecutive time, while raising the eurozone economic growth forecast to 1.2% [4] Group 2 - The increase in U.S. crude oil inventories by 3.9 million barrels, contrary to expectations of a decrease, raised concerns about weak demand [6] - International oil prices fell, with light crude futures closing at $62.37 per barrel, down 2.04%, and Brent crude at $66.37 per barrel, down 1.66% [7] - Gold prices experienced a slight decline, closing at $3673.6 per ounce, as investors believed the latest inflation data would not alter the Fed's decision on interest rates [9]

Market Performance - On September 11, US stock indices closed higher, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising by 1.36%, the S&P 500 increasing by 0.85%, and the Nasdaq gaining 0.72%, all reaching historical highs [1][2][3] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average peaked at 46,137.2 points during the session, closing at 46,108 points, marking the first time it closed above 46,000 points [3] - The S&P 500 index reached an intraday high of 6,592.89 points, closing at 6,587.47 points, while the Nasdaq index hit a peak of 22,059.71 points, closing at 22,043.07 points, the first close above 22,000 points [3] Technology Sector - The index of the seven major US technology stocks rose by 0.62%, with Tesla surging over 6%, Apple increasing by more than 1%, and Google and Microsoft showing slight gains [5] Chinese Stocks - Chinese stocks listed in the US saw significant gains, with the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index rising by 2.89%. Notable individual performances included Century Internet and GDS Holdings, both increasing nearly 15%, and Alibaba rising by nearly 8% [8][10] Precious Metals - International precious metals futures showed mixed results, with COMEX gold futures down by 0.23% to $3,673.4 per ounce, while COMEX silver futures rose by 1.12% to $42.065 per ounce [12][13] Economic Indicators - The US Labor Department reported that initial jobless claims rose to 263,000, an increase of 27,000 from the previous week, marking the highest level since October 2021 [16] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for August increased by 2.9% year-on-year, up from 2.7% in July, with the core CPI rising by 3.1% [17]

人民财讯9月11日电，欧洲央行将存款机制利率维持在2%不变，主要再融资利率和边际贷款利率维持在 2.15%和2.40%不变。 ...

Group 1 - The majority of economists (66 out of 69) expect the European Central Bank (ECB) to maintain the deposit rate at 2.00% during the meeting on September 11, aligning with market expectations [1] - Recent data shows inflation nearing the 2% target and unemployment at historical lows, leading most economists to believe the ECB has completed its rate-cutting cycle [1] - Approximately 60% of economists (40 out of 69) predict that the ECB will keep rates unchanged for the remainder of the year [1] Group 2 - Economists forecast the Eurozone economy to grow by 1.2% this year and 1.1% next year, consistent with the results from the August survey [1] - There are risks identified in the region, including the contraction of the German economy and political instability in some Eurozone countries [1]

Core Viewpoint - The euro is experiencing a slight decline against the US dollar, trading around 1.16, with a current quote of 1.1653, reflecting a decrease of 0.05% from the previous day's close of 1.1658 [1] Group 1: Market Conditions - The overall turmoil in the global bond market appears to have eased, leading to a more stable market environment that supports the euro [1] - Market participants are shifting their focus back to fundamentals and the relative outlook of central bank policies [1] Group 2: Central Bank Policies - ECB Governing Council member Müller expressed a preference for maintaining current interest rates, aligning with market expectations for the ECB's meetings in September and October [1] - The market currently prices in approximately 8 basis points for a potential rate cut by the ECB in December, suggesting that if this expectation is removed, it could provide support for the euro [1] Group 3: Technical Analysis - The Relative Strength Index (RSI) for the euro is at 50, indicating a neutral position, while the euro/USD continues to consolidate around the 50-day moving average of 1.1666 [1] - Over the past month, the trading range for the euro/USD has remained stable between the support level of the upper 1.15s and the resistance level of the mid to lower 1.17s, with expectations for short-term fluctuations between 1.1600 and 1.1700 [1]