周五（9月5日）亚洲时段，欧元/美元短线拉高，最新欧元兑美元汇率报1.1673，涨幅0.22%，机构调查 显示，绝大多数经济学家（69人中有66人）预计欧洲央行将在9月11日的会议上维持存款利率在2.00% 不变，这与市场预期一致。 在经济增长方面，经济学家预测欧元区经济今年将增长1.2%，明年增长1.1%，与8月调查结果基本持 平。 不过，经济学家们也提醒，该地区仍存在一些风险，例如德国经济的萎缩以及部分欧元区国家的政治不 稳定。 欧元对美元汇率周四下跌在1.1630之上受到支持，上涨在1.1670之下遇阻，意味着欧美短线下跌后有可 能保持上涨的走势。如果欧美今天下跌在1.1625之上企稳，后市上涨的目标将会指向1.1665--1.1690之 间。今天欧元走势短线阻力在1.1660--1.1665，短线重要阻力在1.1685--1.1690。今天欧美短线支持在 1.1625--1.1630，短线重要支持在1.1605--1.1610。 机构调查显示，绝大多数经济学家（69人中有66人）预计欧洲央行将在9月11日的会议上维持存款利率 在2.00%不变，这与市场预期一致。 上月，经济学家们对欧洲央行是否会进一步 ...

Core Viewpoint - The euro is experiencing a slight decline against the US dollar, trading around 1.16, with a current quote of 1.1653, reflecting a decrease of 0.05% from the previous day's close of 1.1658 [1] Group 1: Market Conditions - The overall turmoil in the global bond market appears to have eased, leading to a more stable market environment that supports the euro [1] - Market participants are shifting their focus back to fundamentals and the relative outlook of central bank policies [1] Group 2: Central Bank Policies - ECB Governing Council member Müller expressed a preference for maintaining current interest rates, aligning with market expectations for the ECB's meetings in September and October [1] - The market currently prices in approximately 8 basis points for a potential rate cut by the ECB in December, suggesting that if this expectation is removed, it could provide support for the euro [1] Group 3: Technical Analysis - The Relative Strength Index (RSI) for the euro is at 50, indicating a neutral position, while the euro/USD continues to consolidate around the 50-day moving average of 1.1666 [1] - Over the past month, the trading range for the euro/USD has remained stable between the support level of the upper 1.15s and the resistance level of the mid to lower 1.17s, with expectations for short-term fluctuations between 1.1600 and 1.1700 [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the increase in gold prices due to heightened expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, with December 2025 gold futures rising by $35.6 to $3417.2 per ounce, marking a 1.05% increase [1] - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicated that the U.S. economy faces new challenges, including high tariffs reshaping global trade and stricter immigration policies leading to a sharp slowdown in labor supply growth [1] - Powell mentioned that the current inflation risks are skewed to the upside while employment risks are skewed to the downside, creating a challenging economic environment [1] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve's monetary policy stance may need adjustment based on changes in outlook and risk balance, although there is no preset path for monetary policy [1] - The European Central Bank is expected to maintain interest rates in the Eurozone at 2% in September, with economic growth and inflation trends aligning with previous expectations [1] - Silver futures for September delivery also saw an increase, rising by $0.801 to $38.880 per ounce, reflecting a 2.10% gain [1]

·特朗普批评鲍威尔："太愤怒、愚蠢且政治化" 美联储人事变动留下政策悬念 ·美联储维持联邦基金利率目标区间不变 ·就业报告增强美联储降息预期 ·加拿大央行维持利率在2.75%不变 ·日本央行维持利率在0.5%不变 【全球央行动态】 ·美联储以9票赞成、2票反对的结果将基准联邦基金利率目标维持在4.25%-4.5%区间不变。理事沃勒和 鲍曼反对该决定，主张降息25个基点。美联储主席鲍威尔表示，尽管经济增长放缓，但美联储已做好必 要时采取行动的准备。并强调，央行尚未就9月可能的政策调整"作出任何决定"。 ·美国总统特朗普强烈批评美联储主席鲍威尔，认为他"太愤怒、愚蠢且政治化"，不适合其职位。美国 财长贝森特指出美联储理事会内部存在分歧，并预计新任主席提名将在年底前公布。 ·据美联储消息，理事库格勒将在其任期结束前离职，于8月8日正式生效。在美国总统特朗普推动降低 利率之际，这给他创造了美联储一个重要的职位空缺，也给未来美联储主席任命带来了不确定性。 ·美联储官员上周发言一览： 美联储理事沃勒和鲍曼表示担心美联储对降息的迟疑可能会给劳动力市场带来不必要的损害。沃勒和鲍 曼在美联储议息会议上反对连续第五次维持基准利率 ...

Core Insights - The Eurozone experienced unexpected economic growth in the second quarter, leading to speculation that the European Central Bank (ECB) may refrain from further interest rate cuts [1] Economic Performance - The growth rate in the second quarter was slower compared to the previous quarter, but it indicates a recovery in private consumption within the Eurozone [1] - Vincent Stammer from Deutsche Bank noted that higher economic growth typically leads to increased prices [1] Monetary Policy Implications - Due to the economic growth, the ECB may feel the need to maintain current key interest rates rather than lowering them [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given documents Core Viewpoint - In the face of high capacity constraints and with demand gradually entering the off - season, freight rates will face pressure in the future [1][28] Summary by Relevant Catalogs EC Futures Contracts - EC2508 had a yesterday's charge price of 2183.2, a decline of 1.33%, a direct difference of 133.4, a yesterday's volume of 2525, a yesterday's open interest of 7369, and an open interest change of - 989 [1][28] - EC2510 had a price of 1502.8, a decline of 1.62%, a direct difference of 813.8, a volume of 56014, and an open interest change of 717 [1][28] - EC2512 had a price of 1737.8, an increase of 1.02%, a direct difference of 578.8, and an open interest change of 79 [1][28] - EC2602 had a price of 1541.0, an increase of 1.46%, a direct difference of 775.6, and an open interest change of - 23 [1][28] - EC2604 had a price of 1370.0, an increase of 0.61%, a direct difference of 946.6, and an open interest change of - 283 [1][28] - EC2606 had a price of 1493.6, a decline of 1.61%, a direct difference of 823.0, and an open interest change of 44 [1][28] Month - to - Month Spread - EC2508 - 2510: The previous day's spread was 680.4, with a daily change of - 4.7 and a weekly change of - 21.3 [1][28] - EC2510 - 2512: The previous day's spread was - 235.0, with a daily change of - 42.3 and a weekly change of - 74.3 [1][28] - EC2512 - 2602: The previous day's spread was 196.8, with a daily change of - 4.6 and a weekly change of - 51.4 [1][28] Shipping Indexes - SCEIS (updated every Monday, as of 2025/7/28): 2316.56 points, a decline of 3.50% from the previous period and 0.89% from the period before the previous one [1][28] - SCFI (updated every Friday, as of 2025/7/25): 2090 dollars/TEU, an increase of 0.53% from the previous period and a decline of 0.95% in the next period [1][28] - CCFI (updated every Friday, as of 2025/7/25): 1787.24, a decline of 0.90% from the previous period and an increase of 4.46% in the next period [1][28] - NCFI (updated every week - nine, as of 2025/7/25): 1422.9, a decline of 1.20% from the previous period and an increase of 0.35% in the next period [1][28] - TCI (as of 2025/7/18): 1054.56 points, a decline of 0.75% from the previous period and no change in the next period [1][28] European Line Supply and Demand - The average capacities in August and September (temporarily) are 325,000 and 324,000 TEU respectively. The capacities in week32/33/34/35 are 330,000, 305,000, 350,000, and 316,000 TEU respectively, with high capacity pressure, especially in the second half of August [1][28] - There is a situation of transfer from the US line in the European line schedule. Supported by the base cargo volume of shipping companies, the loading rate of shipping companies in July did not face much pressure. In early August, the base cargo still provides some support, but the cargo volume is gradually weakening and entering the off - season [1][28] Recent European Line Quotations - In July, the quotations remained stable at around 2400 points [2][29] - In August, the PA alliance's price dropped by 200 - 300 to 3100 dollars, MSK's price decreased slightly at the beginning of the cabin opening (2900 - 3000 dollars) and then increased slightly, and OA continued to use 3400 - 3500 dollars. The price in week31 landed at about 3300 dollars (equivalent to 2300 points on the futures market) [2][29] Related News - On 7/28, the US - EU trade agreement may lead to a long - term pause in interest rate hikes by the European Central Bank, increasing the risk of no further interest rate cuts [3][30] - On 7/29, Israel is considering a full - scale military occupation of the Gaza Strip [3][30] - On 7/29, the US State Department refused to hold a "two - state solution" meeting on the Gaza issue [3][30] - On 7/29, the German government will approve a 2026 budget including a record investment of 126.7 billion euros to revitalize its sluggish economy [3][30]

Core Viewpoint - The current interest rate level maintained by the European Central Bank (ECB) is deemed valuable, indicating a shift away from the era of easily adjusting rates [1] Economic Context - The euro is currently near its historical average, but close monitoring is necessary [1] - There remains untapped economic potential within the region [1] - The extensive easing policies previously implemented by the ECB continue to have an impact on the economy [1] Policy Stance - The ECB's current robust policy approach is considered appropriate for the economic conditions [1] - The era of straightforward interest rate hikes or cuts has concluded, suggesting a more complex decision-making environment ahead [1]

Core Viewpoint - A survey of economists indicates that the European Central Bank (ECB) may delay its final interest rate cut until December, suggesting that the easing cycle is not yet perceived as over [1][4]. Group 1: Interest Rate Decisions - Most respondents expect the ECB to maintain rates at the upcoming policy meeting, with a final cut of 25 basis points anticipated in September, lowering the deposit facility rate to 1.75% [1]. - Approximately one-quarter of respondents believe the ECB has completed its rate cuts, while nearly half predict the last cut will occur in September, and 21% expect it in December [6]. - The ECB is currently in a wait-and-see mode, with expectations for further cuts in September and December, while maintaining a cautious stance in its communications [6][9]. Group 2: Economic Outlook and Trade Relations - The outcome of trade negotiations between the EU and the US is seen as a critical factor influencing the ECB's policy decisions, with potential tariffs from the US posing risks to economic stability [9]. - Analysts highlight that the balance between strong domestic demand in the Eurozone and weak external demand is currently delicate, and any trade agreement progress is unlikely before the ECB's next meeting [9]. Group 3: Inflation and Currency Concerns - The ECB's inflation forecasts indicate a target of stabilizing inflation at 2% by 2027, with current projections showing average inflation of 1.6% in 2025 [10]. - The appreciation of the euro against the dollar, which has risen nearly 12% this year, is raising concerns about its impact on inflation, with some economists suggesting that a stronger euro could suppress price pressures [11]. - There is a divergence in opinions regarding the euro's exchange rate, with some respondents indicating that a rise to 1.35 against the dollar would be problematic, while others emphasize the importance of the rate's speed and magnitude [14].

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank is expected to maintain interest rates at the upcoming meeting on July 24, with discussions about potential rate cuts postponed until September [1] Group 1 - The European Central Bank's decision to keep interest rates unchanged indicates a cautious approach to monetary policy [1] - The delay in discussions regarding rate cuts suggests that the ECB is monitoring economic conditions before making any significant changes [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Euro/USD pair has recently retreated from a high of 1.1800, with the market focusing on upcoming U.S. non-farm payroll data [1][2] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The U.S. dollar gained momentum amid rising yields, contributing to the Euro's decline after a nine-day increase [2] - The geopolitical situation in the Middle East has renewed demand for risk assets, putting pressure on the dollar and supporting the Euro and other risk-related currencies [4] - Trade tensions remain a focal point as the deadline for U.S. tariff suspensions approaches, with ongoing negotiations between the EU and the UK regarding Brexit [5] Group 2: Monetary Policy - The Federal Reserve maintained interest rates at 4.25%-4.50% in June but raised inflation and unemployment forecasts due to tariff-related cost pressures [6] - The European Central Bank (ECB) recently lowered the deposit facility rate to 2.00%, with further easing contingent on a significant decline in external demand [6] Group 3: Market Positioning - As of June 24, speculative net long positions in the Euro rose to over 111.1K contracts, the highest level since January 2024, while commercial traders' net short positions increased to 164.3K contracts, the peak since December 2023 [7] Group 4: Technical Analysis - Initial resistance is at the 2025 high of 1.1829, with potential targets at the September 2018 high of 1.1815 and the June 2018 high of 1.1852 [8] - Initial support is at the 55-day simple moving average of 1.1410, followed by the weekly low of 1.1210 and the May low of 1.1064 [8] - Momentum indicators remain positive, with the RSI above 74 indicating overbought conditions but also potential for further gains [8] Group 5: Long-term Outlook - In the absence of new geopolitical or macroeconomic shocks, the Euro's upward trend is expected to resume, supported by reduced risk aversion and expectations of Fed easing [9]