格隆汇2月4日｜数据显示，欧元区通胀上月回落，周三公布的数据显示通胀进入一段疲软期。多数经济 学家预计，这种状况至少将持续一年，并使欧洲央行维持按兵不动。欧元区1月通胀率降至1.7%，为 2024年9月以来最低水平，主要受能源价格下跌拖累。不过剔除能源、食品、酒精和烟草等波动性项目 的核心通胀指标意外从12月的2.3%小幅降至2.2%，原因是服务业价格继续放缓。综合来看，这些数据 不太可能促使欧洲央行立即采取行动。市场普遍预计，欧洲央行将在周四维持利率不变，并在今年剩余 时间内继续按兵不动。欧元区通胀率已在2%附近徘徊至少一年。欧元近期对美元走强，部分原因在于 特朗普政策的不确定性以及市场对美联储独立性的担忧，这也引发了市场关于降息的讨论。 来源：格隆汇APP ...

受访经济学家一致预测，欧洲央行管理委员会2月4日至5日在法兰克福召开货币政策会议时，将把存款 利率维持在2%的水平。 尽管本次调查中，预计2028年前央行会启动一次及以上加息的经济学家比例，已从上轮调查的约四分之 一升至三分之一，但认为年内会加息的受访者占比反而有所下降。 这一观点转变的背后，是经济不确定性的持续攀升：美国总统特朗普释放出可能随时撕毁去年夏季与欧 洲签署的贸易协定的信号，同时欧元走强也对欧元区出口形成压制，进一步拖累本就低于通胀目标的物 价走势。 以行长拉加德为首的欧洲央行官员认为，当前的货币政策框架足以应对未来的各类挑战。但受欧元持续 升值的影响，奥地利央行行长Martin Kocher等官员强调，央行需做好快速采取行动的准备。 智通财经APP获悉，最新调查显示，欧洲央行预计将至少维持当前利率水平至明年年底，市场对2026年 加息的预期已有所消退。 Friend是76%预测去年夏季达成的协议将经受住最新动荡的经济学家之一。谈及欧元走强，他认为欧元 兑美元汇率在1.20至1.25区间对欧洲央行而言属于"可承受范围"。 受海外投资者对美国经济前景持谨慎态度的影响，欧元兑美元汇率过去一年累计升值约 ...

交易员正通过期权押注欧洲央行政策制定者将在今年某个时点意外降息25个基点，此举与市场普遍预期 相悖。 本周已出现多笔与三个月期欧元同业拆借利率挂钩的期权策略大额押注。若欧洲央行果真降息，这些交 易将获得总计3200万欧元(约合3830万美元)的回报，收益率高达12倍。 在通胀率已略低于目标水平、市场长期预期欧洲央行今年将维持借贷成本稳定的背景下，此类操作显得 尤为逆向。尽管政策制定者在下周召开的年度首次会议上大概率维持利率不变，但欧元近期飙升已引发 市场对进一步宽松可能性的讨论，成为决策者需要纳入考量的新变量。 摩根大通资产管理全球利率投资组合经理Kim Crawford表示："从风险不对称的角度看，2026年的利率 定价显得极具吸引力。市场目前未对降息定价，若欧洲央行采取行动，方向也只可能是降息而非加 息。" 巴克莱银行利率交易董事总经理Lucile Flight表示："我不认为欧元兑美元汇率波动会导致欧洲央行转向 更鸽派的立场。欧洲央行的政策将坚定保持稳定。" 特殊交易结构 此类期权交易的特别之处在于，其通过同时押注政策制定者不会加息来降低交易成本。若欧洲央行加息 25个基点，将导致约1500万欧元的损失 ...

人民财讯12月18日电，欧洲央行将存款利率维持在2.00%不变，维持主要再融资利率在2.15%不变，将 边际贷款利率维持在2.40%不变。 ...

Core Insights - Eurozone's private sector activity expanded at the fastest pace in two and a half years, with the composite PMI revised up to 52.8, marking a 30-month high and remaining above the neutral line of 50.0 for the sixth consecutive month [1] - The growth was primarily driven by the services sector, which saw the services PMI rise to 53.6, the highest level since May 2023, with new business growth accelerating to the fastest rate in 18 months [1] - There is a notable divergence at the country level, with Ireland achieving its highest growth rate in three and a half years, while Germany experienced a decline from a 29-month high in October [1] Economic Activity - The services sector showed clear signs of recovery, with strong performance offsetting weaknesses in manufacturing, leading to a slight increase in economic output compared to the previous month [1] - Employment in the Eurozone continued to increase in November, although the pace of growth slowed, with service sector hiring persisting while manufacturing firms experienced the fastest rate of layoffs since April [2] Inflation and Costs - Input costs rose at the fastest pace in eight months, driven by increased procurement costs for manufacturers and accelerated service sector expenses, although the ability of businesses to pass on costs to customers weakened [2] - The preliminary year-on-year harmonized CPI for November was reported at 2.2%, slightly above the European Central Bank's (ECB) medium-term target of 2% [2] - The ECB officials expressed satisfaction with the current interest rate levels, indicating a strong macroeconomic outlook that supports market confidence in maintaining rates unchanged in the coming months [2]

Core Points - The European Central Bank (ECB) is not in a hurry to lower interest rates and may not need to do so further this year [1][2] - The ECB maintained its interest rates in the last meeting, indicating that the current policy is "good" and showing resilience, with inflation stable at target levels [1][2] - Investor confidence is reinforced as the market believes there will be no further rate cuts this year, with only a one-third chance of a rate cut in 2026 [1][2] - The meeting minutes emphasized the value of waiting for more information, stating that the current policy rate is robust enough to handle shocks [1][2] - Some officials believe that the rate-cutting cycle may have ended unless risks materialize, which could lead to favorable prospects or continuation [1][2]

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank (ECB) is not in a hurry to cut interest rates due to high uncertainty, indicating that further rate cuts may not be necessary [1] Summary by Relevant Sections - **Interest Rate Policy** - The ECB maintained interest rates at the last meeting, stating that the current policy is in a "good state" as the economy shows resilience and inflation remains stable at target levels [1] - Investors are confident that there will be no further rate cuts this year, with the market now estimating only a one-third chance of a rate cut in 2026 [1] - **Economic Outlook** - The minutes from the meeting suggest that the current policy rate is considered robust enough to handle economic shocks [1] - Some officials believe that the rate-cutting cycle may have already ended, indicating a shift in the ECB's approach to monetary policy [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Eurozone's business activity shows steady growth in November, indicating economic resilience, with improved business confidence suggesting continued momentum and a balanced inflation outlook, potentially leading the European Central Bank (ECB) to stabilize interest rates by 2026 [1][6]. Economic Indicators - The Eurozone's November composite PMI slightly decreased from October's two-year high of 52.5 to 52.4, remaining above the 50 mark, indicating ongoing economic expansion [2]. - The services sector's PMI rose to 53.1 in November, the fastest growth in 18 months, supported by robust new orders, while employment growth was cautious [2]. - Manufacturing PMI fell to 49.7, indicating a return to contraction, with new orders and employment both declining, suggesting a lack of clear direction in the sector [2]. Country-Specific Insights - Germany's November composite PMI dropped to 52.1, with manufacturing PMI falling to 48.4, reflecting a significant decline in new orders, particularly in exports [3]. - France's November composite PMI improved to 49.9, nearing stability after over a year of decline, with services PMI rising to 50.8, indicating a slight recovery in business activity [4]. ECB Outlook - The ECB is expected to maintain interest rates through December and into next year, supported by resilient economic growth and improved business confidence [6][7]. - ECB officials have indicated that current interest rates are appropriate, with a focus on balancing inflation risks and economic performance [8].

Core Viewpoint - European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde signaled that there will be no reduction in key interest rates in the coming months [1] Group 1: Interest Rate Outlook - Lagarde reiterated that the current interest rate level is in a "comfortable range," reinforcing the rationale for maintaining stable rates [1] - The expectation is that the ECB will keep the deposit rate at 2% at least until the end of next year [1]

Group 1: Federal Reserve Insights - The potential new Fed chair candidate, Reed, suggests that Powell's stance is more hawkish than expected, increasing the likelihood of skipping a rate cut in December, potentially delaying further easing measures into the new year [1][2] - Nomura Securities has retracted its prediction for a December rate cut after Powell's press conference indicated that a December hike is not guaranteed, with current market expectations for a rate cut by year-end at approximately 72%, down from 91% prior to the Fed's decision [1][2] - CICC estimates that the Fed still has room for three more rate cuts, but the pace of cuts may slow down, influenced by government shutdowns and economic data releases [2] Group 2: European Central Bank (ECB) Outlook - Danske Bank indicates that the ECB is likely to maintain interest rates unchanged in October, with data aligning closely with expectations, although there are growing divergences among members regarding inflation outlooks [3] - ECB President Lagarde is expected to reaffirm a data-dependent approach to decision-making, while the market may be pricing in upward risks for potential rate cuts [3] Group 3: Bank of Japan (BoJ) Policy - Mizuho Bank emphasizes that the BoJ is committed to a gradual normalization of its policy stance, with market participants adjusting their expectations for future policy changes [4] - State Street Global Advisors notes that the likelihood of a BoJ rate hike increases if global trade uncertainties are better assessed, with potential adjustments expected in the coming meetings [4] Group 4: Australian Economic Outlook - HSBC's Australian division reports that unexpected increases in core inflation have fundamentally altered the outlook for official interest rates, with expectations for a rate hike potentially occurring in early 2027 [5]