消息面上，国庆中秋长假期间（10月1日至10月8日），国际金价大幅度上涨。，国际贵金属市场迎来里 程碑式突破，10月7日，COMEX黄金价格一度触及4000美元/盎司整数大关，刷新历史纪录；10月8日， 贵金属延续强势行情，COMEX黄金期货价格盘中再度冲高至4081美元，伦敦黄金现货价格突破4059.3 美元/盎司，双双刷新历史新高。 受十一假期金价大涨再创历史新高带动，今日黄金相关ETF纷纷走强场内ETF方面，截至2025年10月9 日 09:58，上海金ETF(518600)上涨4.43%，实现3连涨。拉长时间看，该基金今年以来，累计上涨 40.79%。 资金流入方面，杠杆资金持续布局中。上海金ETF最新融资买入额达1832.66万元，最新融资余额达 594.03万元。拉长时间看，近4个交易日内，合计"吸金"1.04亿元。 以上内容与数据，与有连云立场无关，不构成投资建议。据此操作，风险自担。 面对当前黄金涨势，机构纷纷唱多黄金，高盛最新将2026年12月金价预估上调至4900美元/盎司，先前 预估为4300美元。 此外，10月1日美国政府开始停摆，当前美国政府关门僵局仍在持续。虽然特朗普总统表态愿与民 ...

美国9月"小非农"就业数据意外转负，加强了市场对美联储10月降息的预期。 10月1日，美国ADP就业报告（俗称"小非农"）数据显示，2025年9月全美私营部门新增就业人数减少3.2万人，远低于市场预期的增加5万人。 受上述消息影响，美元指数盘中急剧跳水，从97.8附近跌至97.5附近，跌幅超过0.3%。国际金价盘中短线拉升后，逐渐震荡回调。 美股三大指数集体低开，随后跌幅一度有所收窄，道指一度翻红，但截至发稿，再次转跌。 银河证券的研究观点称，当前美国经济正处于劳动力市场持续放缓与通胀持续回升的组合之中，美联储面临着在防范经济过度下滑和抑制潜在通胀压力之间的权 衡。 银河证券预计，若失业率加速攀升并突破4.6%、平均新增非农就业回落至3万人以内，则经济将面临衰退压力，美联储将转向更激进的宽松政策，美联储年内剩余 降息空间50—75个基点，对应后续还有2次降息，单次幅度25—50个基点。 不过，通胀仍是潜在变数。美国劳工部9月11日公布的数据显示，今年8月美国消费者价格指数（CPI）同比上涨2.9%，较上月2.7%的涨幅有所上升。剔除波动较大 的食品和能源价格后，8月核心消费者价格指数同比上涨3.1%。 | 代 ...

约翰霍普金斯大学的RobertBarbera表示："沃勒看起来更像一个美联储主席，而不是一个为得到美联储主席职位而 卑躬屈膝的人。" 对下一任美联储主席而言，真正的挑战在于政策执行阶段。当前美国经济正陷入劳动力市场疲软与关税推升的通胀 的困境。多数美联储官员认为，特朗普的关税政策仅会导致"少数商品价格一次性上涨"，且可能放缓就业增长。但 学院派经济学家普遍认为"滞胀风险正在上升"，失业率与通胀将同步恶化。 芝加哥大学布斯商学院的调查数据显示82%受访的学院派经济学家将沃勒列为下一任美联储主席的首选，这一比例 远超其他候选人。但同期仅五分之一的学者认为他能在2026年接替鲍威尔。相反，44名受访者中39%的人将赌注压 在了白宫国家经济委员会主席哈塞特身上。 沃勒的立场恰好契合学院派对"稳健央行管理者"的期待。尽管他在7月投票中反对当时的降息决议，但面对米兰的 极端主张，他同样明确表示反对。 市场虽将沃勒列为热门人选，但特朗普此前已暗示，前美联储理事凯文・沃什、哈塞特与沃勒是他的"优先考虑名 单"，且明确将"忠诚度"与"积极降息意愿"列为核心筛选标准。这意味着哈塞特的优势并非来自政策能力，而是其 作为白宫核心经济 ...

Group 1 - Recent data indicates a sharp increase in inflation risks in the U.S., raising widespread market concerns following the Federal Reserve's recent 25 basis point rate cut [1][5] - Approximately 72% of components in the U.S. Consumer Price Index have exceeded the Federal Reserve's 2% target, marking the highest level in three years, compared to 55% last year, suggesting a clear trend of accelerating inflation [3] - The broadness of current inflation has surpassed the pre-pandemic average of 57% in 2018 and 2019, indicating a significant rise in inflationary pressures [3] Group 2 - Signs of weakness in the U.S. labor market present a challenging decision for the Federal Reserve, balancing the need to address slowing economic growth while monitoring rising inflation data [5] - Economists warn of potential stagflation risks, where economic growth stagnates alongside high inflation [5][7] - The Federal Reserve has lowered the interest rate target range to 4.00% to 4.25%, with expectations of further rate cuts in October and December if labor market conditions worsen [5] Group 3 - Economic experts express concerns over the current situation, highlighting the need for vigilance as unemployment rises while inflation remains high [7] - Some officials indicate that the impact of tariff policies on the economy has yet to fully materialize, suggesting potential broader market risks [7] - The market is closely monitoring the Federal Reserve's next policy moves, with a focus on balancing economic growth support and inflation control as a primary challenge [8]

美国芝加哥联储主席Goolsbee（2025年FOMC票委）：对前期集中进行过多次数的降息感到不安。看到 就业和通胀风险"环境怪异"。如果滞胀风险消退，利率可能进一步下降。 ...

凤凰网财经讯9月23-24日，由凤凰卫视、凤凰网主办的"凤凰湾区财经论坛2025"在广州举行，本届论坛以"新格局·新路径"为主题，汇聚全球政商学界精英， 共同洞察变局脉络、探寻发展新机。 摩根士丹利中国首席经济学家邢自强 摩根士丹利中国首席经济学家邢自强出席本次论坛并发表主题演讲。美联储启动降息周期成为全球金融市场的焦点，邢自强认为，美国经济正面临滞胀风 险，长期看空美元。 邢自强预测，从本次9月降息至明年上半年，美联储的累计降息幅度将接近125个基点，利率将从当前4%出头的水平逐渐向3%靠近。与此同时，移民政策和 关税政策共同对通胀施加了持续的压力。预计美国通胀率（CPI）将维持在3%左右的高位。 这将导致一个关键变化，美国实际利率将较快下降。"当美国实际利率下降时，其与其他主要经济体的利差将会缩小，甚至可能低于这些经济体的利率。这 将可能削弱全球资本对美元和美债的需求，导致美元贬值，并加剧美债市场的波动性"，邢自强解释道。 邢自强还提到，未来的美联储主席可能会面临更多的政治压力，这可能会影响其政策独立性，通过加息来抑制通胀的过程变得更加复杂。"将来可能有点典 型的类似于新兴市场中央银行面临的困境，加息困难 ...

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the gold market and its dynamics, particularly in relation to macroeconomic factors and central bank behaviors. The focus is on how these elements influence gold prices and investment strategies. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Commodity Market Dynamics**: Agricultural and pig prices have declined due to oversupply, reflecting fundamental signals in the global commodity market, aligning with liquidity expectation trading judgments [1] 2. **Gold Price Sensitivity**: Gold prices are influenced by supply, inventory, consumption, and investment demand. A 25 basis point interest rate change can affect gold prices by approximately $40 to $50 per ounce [4][1] 3. **Investment Demand**: Investment demand is a crucial factor in determining the central price of gold, with private sector investments through ETFs significantly influenced by risk appetite. As of the end of 2024, the European and American markets accounted for over 90% of global ETF holdings, while China's share was 4% [6][7] 4. **Central Bank Purchases**: Central bank gold purchases have a significant impact on gold prices, with historical data showing a shift from net selling to net buying leading to high premiums. Major contributors to this trend include China, Russia, and India [11][10] 5. **ETF Role in Gold Market**: ETFs serve as a critical tool for reflecting risk-hedging behavior, with significant fluctuations in holdings during major uncertainty events. However, ETF funds typically do not remain in the market long-term, often exiting after the peak of uncertainty [9][8] 6. **Risk Hedging Function**: Gold is primarily viewed as a risk-hedging tool within asset allocation strategies, akin to insurance, protecting other assets from unexpected risk events [13][15] 7. **Economic Cycle Impact**: Future economic cycles will significantly influence gold prices. Continued Fed rate cuts amid recession risks may drive more investors toward gold, while an overheating economy could weaken this trend [14][20] 8. **Market Environment**: The current market is characterized as both promising and risky for gold, benefiting from factors like de-globalization, trade conflicts, inflation expectations, and potential stagflation risks [17][18] 9. **Oil Prices and Inflation**: Oil prices are currently low but could rise due to geopolitical risks, impacting inflation expectations and interest rate trading [19][20] Other Important Insights - **Weak Correlation with Other Assets**: The weak correlation of gold with other risk assets enhances its value in multi-asset portfolios, particularly in low-probability scenarios [15] - **Future Price Volatility**: The gold market is expected to experience volatility rather than consistent upward trends, influenced by macroeconomic indicators and policy changes [20] - **Long-term Investment Considerations**: Investors should focus on macro events and geopolitical risks rather than short-term price movements when considering gold investments [16]

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices have surged recently, with London gold breaking the $3,720 per ounce mark and COMEX gold futures reaching $3,756.9 per ounce, both hitting historical highs [1][3]. Group 1: Price Movements - As of the latest report, London gold reached $3,720 per ounce, increasing over 1%, with an intraday high of $3,726.702 per ounce [1]. - COMEX gold futures rose nearly 1.4%, closing at $3,756.9 per ounce, with a peak of $3,761.2 per ounce during the trading session [1][2]. Group 2: Factors Driving Price Increase - The rise in gold prices is attributed to the Federal Reserve's "preventive rate cut" policy, concerns over stagflation risks, and worries about the Fed's independence [3][4]. - A decline in the U.S. dollar index and issues surrounding the security of cryptocurrencies, particularly the drop in Bitcoin prices, have also contributed to the upward momentum in gold prices [3]. Group 3: Market Analysis and Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that the market's expectation of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve has bolstered gold prices, especially following a dovish shift from Fed Chair Powell [3][5]. - The ongoing geopolitical tensions and economic pressures in regions like Europe and the Middle East have heightened risk aversion, further supporting gold's price increase [3][4]. - Looking ahead, analysts believe that the long-term upward trend for gold is likely to continue, with potential targets of $3,800 and even $4,000 per ounce by year-end [5].

但事实果真如此吗？ 如果我们深入分析美联储发布的官方声明、利率点阵图，以及鲍威尔在新闻发布会上的讲话，便会发现这次降息并非政治角力的结 果，而更像是技术官僚，基于对经济现实的审慎评估后做出的回应，是对市场敲响的一记警钟。 市场反应冷淡：这不是欢呼，而是预警 如果这是一场"胜利"，为何市场反应如此反常？ 降息消息公布后，道琼斯工业平均指数仅出现小幅上涨，而纳斯达克综合指数和标准普尔500指数反而双双 收跌，其中科技股更是领跌。与此同时，黄金价格大幅跳水，美元汇率也一改之前的下跌趋势，转为上涨。 这一切都与人们预期的"降息狂欢"景象大相径 庭，反而透露出投资者们的一丝警惕与不安。 在新闻发布会上，鲍威尔明确指出："通胀仍然处于高位，且商品价格上涨正在推动通胀，这一趋势可能会持续下去。" 他坦诚地指出了当前经济所面临的 复杂局面： 一方面，就业市场表现疲软，失业率攀升至4.3%，创下两年来的新高； 另一方面，通胀具有粘性，8月份核心消费者价格指数（CPI）同比增长 率仍然高达3.1%。 正是在这种"滞胀风险初现"的背景下，美联储才最终决定降息。这次降息并非为了刺激经济增长，而是一种"风险管理型降息"——即在就业下行 ...

Group 1 - The Bank of Japan announced to maintain its current interest rate level and plans to sell financial assets to further reduce its easing measures and normalize monetary policy [1] - The Canadian central bank cut its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 2.5%, aiming to stimulate economic growth and alleviate downward pressure on the economy [1] - The Federal Reserve lowered the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to between 4.00% and 4.25%, marking its first rate cut of the year and indicating potential further cuts in the future [2] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve's rate cut is expected to lower corporate financing costs, stimulate investment and consumption, and inject vitality into the U.S. economy [2][3] - The Fed's decision is likely to influence major asset classes, with expectations of a limited decline in U.S. Treasury yields, support for U.S. stocks, and a weaker dollar index [3] - Global funds may seek higher returns due to the U.S. rate decrease, potentially flowing into emerging market equities [3]