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热点思考 | “临阵”转鸽——鲍威尔2025年杰克逊霍尔年会演讲(申万宏观·赵伟团队)
赵伟宏观探索· 2025-08-24 16:17
文 | 赵伟、陈达飞 、赵宇 、王茂宇、李欣越 联系人 | 陈达飞 摘要 北京时间2025年8月22日22:00,鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔(Jackson Hole)全球央行年会上发表了题为"经济展 望与框架审查"的演讲,概述了宏观经济形势,陈述了货币政策立场,再次更新了长期货币政策框架和策 略。 (一)宏观经济与货币政策立场:滞胀风险并存,基于风险平衡相机抉择 相比7月FOMC例会,鲍威尔的政策基调转向"中性偏鸽"。 就业方面,鲍威尔的描述可概括为:供需双 弱下"脆弱的平衡",且就业下行风险趋于上行;(2)通胀方面,鲍威尔认为关税引发的通胀是清晰可见 的,但或是"一次性"的,提示短期内仍需密切关注关税的传导和扩散。 货币政策立场方面,鲍威尔认为,美联储需要在"滞胀风险" 中取得平衡(通胀上行和就业下行风险并 存),谨慎行事,随机应变。 由于政策利率处于限制性区域,随着基线前景和风险平衡的变化,美联储 需要调整政策立场,且显然是往宽松的方向调整。 (二)长期货币政策框架回归正常化:长期2%通胀目标+广泛的最大就业目标 在演讲的第二部分,鲍威尔介绍了美联储的长期货币政策框架(或策略)的修订。 2020年8月杰克逊霍 ...
热点思考 | “临阵”转鸽——鲍威尔2025年杰克逊霍尔年会演讲(申万宏观·赵伟团队)
申万宏源宏观· 2025-08-24 12:22
文 | 赵伟、陈达飞 、赵宇 、王茂宇、李欣越 联系人 | 陈达飞 摘要 北京时间2025年8月22日22:00,鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔(Jackson Hole)全球央行年会上发表了题为"经济展 望与框架审查"的演讲,概述了宏观经济形势,陈述了货币政策立场,再次更新了长期货币政策框架和策 略。 (一)宏观经济与货币政策立场:滞胀风险并存,基于风险平衡相机抉择 相比7月FOMC例会,鲍威尔的政策基调转向"中性偏鸽"。 就业方面,鲍威尔的描述可概括为:供需双 弱下"脆弱的平衡",且就业下行风险趋于上行;(2)通胀方面,鲍威尔认为关税引发的通胀是清晰可见 的,但或是"一次性"的,提示短期内仍需密切关注关税的传导和扩散。 货币政策立场方面,鲍威尔认为,美联储需要在"滞胀风险" 中取得平衡(通胀上行和就业下行风险并 存),谨慎行事,随机应变。 由于政策利率处于限制性区域,随着基线前景和风险平衡的变化,美联储 需要调整政策立场,且显然是往宽松的方向调整。 (二)长期货币政策框架回归正常化:长期2%通胀目标+广泛的最大就业目标 在演讲的第二部分,鲍威尔介绍了美联储的长期货币政策框架(或策略)的修订。 2020年8月杰克逊霍 ...
鲍威尔2025年杰克逊霍尔年会演讲:“临阵”转鸽
宏 观 研 究 海外周度观察 2025 年 08 月 24 日 "临阵"转鸽 ——鲍威尔 2025 年杰克逊霍尔年会演讲 北京时间 2025 年 8 月 22 日 22:00,鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔(Jackson Hole)全球央行年会上发 表了题为"经济展望与框架审查"的演讲,概述了宏观经济形势,陈述了货币政策立场,再次 更新了长期货币政策框架和策略。 热点思考:"临阵"转鸽——鲍威尔 2025 年杰克逊霍尔年会演讲 (一)宏观经济与货币政策立场:滞胀风险并存,基于风险平衡相机抉择 相比 7 月 FOMC 例会,鲍威尔的政策基调转向"中性偏鸽"。就业方面,鲍威尔的描述可概括 为:供需双弱下"脆弱的平衡",且就业下行风险趋于上行;(2)通胀方面,鲍威尔认为关税 引发的通胀是清晰可见的,但或是"一次性"的,提示短期内仍需密切关注关税的传导和扩散。 货币政策立场方面,鲍威尔认为,美联储需要在"滞胀风险" 中取得平衡(通胀上行和就业下 行风险并存),谨慎行事,随机应变。由于政策利率处于限制性区域,随着基线前景和风险平 衡的变化,美联储需要调整政策立场,且显然是往宽松的方向调整。 (二)长期货币政策框架回归正常化:长期 ...
天风证券:如果美联储独立性削弱 有何潜在影响?附三位主要候选人近期观点
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-08-24 01:42
| 候选人 | 当地时间 | | 观点言论 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沃勒 | 7/18 | | 美联储理事会成员专注于他们的工作,而非总统的言论。 | | | 7/30 | . | 7 月降息 25个基点合理,劳动力市场疲软风险已充分显现,不应等到劳动力市场恶化后才下调利率。 | | (美联储现任理 | 8/1 | . | 我认为当前这种观望的态度过于谨慎,在我看来,没有正确平衡经济前景的风险,可能导致政策落后 | | 章) | | | 于形势变化。 | | | 8/1 | . | 美联储不应等到劳动力市场恶化才采取行动。 | | 哈塞特 | 7/14 | | 美联储在关税问题上"非常错误"。 | | (白宫国家经济 | 7/16 | ● | 美联储需要重新调整利率的路径,明确利率应当达到的水平。 | | 委员会主任 ) | 8/6 | . | 特朗普的首要任务是维护美联储的独立性。 | | | | . | (被问及美联储职位相关问题时)乐于探讨这一挑战。 | | | 7/17 | . | 如果由一个人领导美联储和财政部,协议会更容易达成。 | | 沃什 (美联储前理事) ...
天风证券:如果美联储独立性削弱 有何潜在影响?
智通财经网· 2025-08-23 23:24
Core Viewpoint - The potential nomination of a new Federal Reserve Chair by Trump raises concerns about the independence of monetary policy, which could lead to increased risks of stagflation, heightened fiscal worries, a weakened dollar, capital flight, and a possible sell-off in U.S. stocks, bonds, and the dollar [1][6]. Candidate Profiles - Three main candidates for the Federal Reserve Chair are Waller, Hassett, and Walsh. Waller is a current Fed governor with a dovish stance and close alignment with Trump's views, which may raise questions about central bank independence [2][3]. Hassett, former NEC director, has significant economic policy experience but lacks monetary policy expertise [2]. Walsh has a diverse background in finance and government but has not served in Trump's administration [2]. Additional Candidates - Other potential candidates include current Fed officials and former government economists, with Milan emerging as a dark horse due to his advocacy for policies that could undermine Fed independence [4][5]. Nomination Process - The nomination process typically takes 3-6 months, with an average of 4 months from nomination to appointment. If Trump announces a candidate by September-October, it may raise concerns about his urgency in establishing a "shadow Fed" [5]. Potential Impacts of Reduced Independence - If a MAGA-aligned candidate is appointed, it could lead to: 1. Increased stagflation risks, reminiscent of Nixon's interference in the 1970s [6]. 2. Heightened fiscal concerns due to rising debt and deficits, potentially exacerbating fears of a debt crisis [6]. 3. A weakened dollar and capital flight as the Fed's credibility diminishes, prompting investors to seek alternative assets [6]. 4. A potential sell-off in U.S. equities, bonds, and the dollar, reflecting market sensitivity to Fed independence [6].
贵金属市场周报-20250822
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-08-22 08:08
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The precious metals market was initially pressured by the spill - over risk of steel and aluminum tariffs, but silver prices recovered since Thursday. Trump's pressure on the Fed and potential impacts on the dollar's credit support gold prices. The Fed has differences in views on interest rate cuts, and the US macro - data shows economic resilience, keeping gold in a range - bound pattern and silver showing relative resilience [7]. - Future market trading may focus on the Russia - Ukraine cease - fire expectation and Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole meeting. The risk of stagflation remains a market concern, and the Fed's officials being intervened by the government may support gold's safe - haven demand [7]. - It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term, paying attention to the unexpected results of Russia - Ukraine negotiations and the Fed's hawkish stance. Specific price ranges are given for gold and silver contracts [7]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Week - to - Week Summary - **Market Review**: The precious metals market was pressured by steel and aluminum tariffs, but silver recovered. Trump's actions and Fed's internal differences affected the market. US macro - data showed economic resilience, with the manufacturing PMI rising and employment data showing some weakness [7]. - **Market Outlook**: The US economic data fluctuates due to tariff expectations, and the employment market shows signs of cooling. The Fed's officials being intervened may support gold's safe - haven demand. Market trading will focus on the Russia - Ukraine cease - fire and Powell's speech [7]. - **Operation Suggestions**: Short - term investors are advised to wait and see, paying attention to negotiation results and Fed's stance. Specific price ranges are provided for gold and silver contracts [7]. 2. Futures and Spot Markets - **Price Changes**: As of August 22, 2025, COMEX silver rose 1.05% to $38.42 per ounce, while the Shanghai silver futures contract fell 0.13%. COMEX gold fell 0.35% to $3370 per ounce, and the Shanghai gold futures contract fell 0.41% [10]. - **ETF Holdings**: As of August 21, 2025, the SLV silver ETF's holdings increased 1.40% to 15278 tons, and the SPDR gold ETF's holdings decreased 0.50% to 956.77 tons [15]. - **Speculative Net Positions**: As of August 12, 2025, both COMEX gold and silver speculative net positions decreased, with gold's total and net positions falling 0.78% and 3.19% respectively, and silver's total and net positions falling 3.00% and 12.61% respectively [20]. - **CFTC Positions**: As of August 12, 2025, COMEX gold's non - commercial long positions decreased 1.40%, and short positions increased 6.30% [25]. - **Basis Changes**: As of August 21, 2025, the gold basis fell 27.68% to - $3.46 per gram, and the silver basis fell 12.50% to - $18 per kilogram [27]. - **Inventory Changes**: As of August 21, 2025, COMEX gold inventory decreased 0.18%, while Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) gold inventory increased 0.83%. COMEX silver inventory increased 0.20%, and SHFE silver inventory decreased 1.50% [35] 3. Industrial Supply and Demand Silver - **Import Data**: As of July 2025, China's silver imports decreased 7.46% month - on - month, while silver ore imports increased 22.32% [39]. - **Down - stream Demand**: As of July 2025, semiconductor silver demand drove up the growth rate of integrated circuit production, with a 15% year - on - year increase [45]. - **Supply - Demand Balance**: In 2024, silver's industrial demand increased 4%, coin and net bar demand decreased 22%, and ETF net investment demand turned positive. The supply - demand gap has been narrowing, with a 26% decrease in 2024 [51][55] Gold - **Price Changes**: As of August 21, 2025, the Chinese gold recycling price rose 0.25% week - on - week, and gold jewelry prices showed mixed trends [59]. - **Demand Changes**: In Q2 2025, the World Gold Council reported a slight decline in gold ETF investment demand. Central bank gold purchases slowed, and high gold prices led to a marginal decline in gold jewelry manufacturing demand [61] 4. Macroeconomic and Options - **Dollar and Interest Rates**: The expectation of interest rate cuts decreased slightly, and the dollar strengthened this week. The 10Y - 2Y US Treasury yield spread narrowed, the CBOE gold volatility increased, and the SP500/COMEX gold price ratio decreased. The 10 - year US break - even inflation rate remained basically flat [65][70][74] - **Central Bank Actions**: In August 2025, the People's Bank of China increased its gold reserves by about 2.18 tons [78]
机构看金市:8月19日
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-19 04:43
Core Viewpoint - The market is currently awaiting guidance on future monetary easing paths, with short-term gold price expectations remaining volatile due to mixed signals from macroeconomic data and upcoming central bank meetings [1][2][4]. Group 1: Market Analysis - Huatai Futures indicates that the Jackson Hole global central bank meeting is crucial, as Fed Chair Powell's speech may not provide clear guidance on future interest rate paths, leading to a volatile gold price outlook [1]. - Zijin Tianfeng Futures notes that the delay in interest rate cuts could lead to a more optimistic outlook for gold, especially if the economy suffers due to delayed monetary easing [1][2]. - StoneX has raised its annual average gold price forecast by 1% to $3,115 per ounce, but expects limited upside unless a "black swan" event occurs, indicating market saturation [3]. Group 2: Central Bank Influence - Five Minerals Futures highlights that geopolitical risks have temporarily eased, negatively impacting gold prices, while Powell's upcoming speech is expected to significantly influence gold and silver price movements [2]. - Heraeus analysts report a decline in central bank gold demand, with the World Gold Council noting a drop to 166.5 tons in Q2 2025, the lowest since Q2 2022, but anticipate that potential Fed rate cuts could still drive gold prices higher [4].
百利好早盘分析:交易降息预期 金价有望走高
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-14 01:41
Group 1: Gold Market - The US July CPI year-on-year is recorded at 2.7%, unchanged from the previous month, indicating a moderate inflation performance that alleviates stagflation risks from Trump's tariff policies and strengthens dovish expectations for the Federal Reserve [2] - Federal Reserve officials are fostering dovish expectations, with former Fed official Bullard expressing support for low interest rates after discussions with Treasury Secretary Basant, who stated a possibility of a 50 basis point rate cut by the Fed [2] - Technical analysis shows that gold prices are stabilizing near the 62-day moving average, with a potential for further increases as the price has regained the 20-day moving average, forming a golden cross [2] Group 2: Oil Market - The EIA reported an increase of 3.036 million barrels in US crude oil inventories for the week ending August 8, contrary to market expectations of a decrease, which is bearish for oil prices [4] - The IEA's latest monthly report revised global oil demand growth for 2025 down from 704,000 barrels per day to 685,000 barrels per day, while supply growth was revised up from 2.1 million barrels per day to 2.5 million barrels per day, indicating a potential oversupply situation [4] - Analysts suggest that the current risk of oversupply in the oil market is high, leading to a likely weak performance in oil prices [4] Group 3: Copper Market - The copper market shows a small decline in the previous trading day, but the price has broken out of the previous trading range of $4.28 to $4.44, indicating a higher chance for further price increases [7] Group 4: Nikkei 225 - The Nikkei 225 index is showing strong performance with signs of accelerated upward movement, although the significant price increase raises concerns about potential pullback risks [8]
美财长罕见呼吁降息150基点 黄金应声上涨 美元指数承压
智通财经网· 2025-08-14 00:25
值得注意的是,美国财政部长们通常不会对美联储的利率发表具体看法,而贝森特本人几个月来也表示,他只会讨论美联储过去的政策决定,不会谈 及未来的决策。 智通财经APP获悉,在美国财政部长贝森特敦促美联储降低借贷成本后,交易员提高了对美联储降息的押注,黄金价格因此走高。截至发稿,黄金期 货价格涨0.16%,报3413.62美元/盎司;美元指数则跌0.11%,报97.73。 贝森特就美联储开启降息周期发出了迄今为止最明确的呼吁。他认为联邦基金利率应该至少比当前水平低1.5个百分点。贝森特周三表示:"我认为我 们可能会迎来一系列降息,从9月降息50个基点开始。无论你参考哪种模型,都表明我们的利率可能应该降低150至175个基点。" 美联储在最近一次政策会议上将基准利率维持在4.25%至4.5%的目标区间。贝森特重申,他认为如果官员们知晓那次会议两天后发布的修订版劳动力 市场数据,他们或许就已经降息了。他指的是美国劳工统计局8月1日发布的数据,该数据将5月和6月的非农新增就业人数下修了25.8万人。他说,6 月的会议可能也是如此。贝森特表示:"我猜想我们本可以在6月和7月就降息。" 贝森特的言论加剧了人们对美联储将于9月 ...
格林大华期货早盘提示-20250813
Ge Lin Qi Huo· 2025-08-12 23:30
Report Summary Report Industry Investment Rating - Global economy in the macro and financial sector is rated as (Bullish) [1] Core Viewpoints - The Chinese humanoid robot industry is rapidly iterating products, with clear commercialization paths and strong potential demand in consumer - grade markets [1] - AI is creating wealth at an unprecedented pace and scale, with numerous high - value "unicorn" companies globally [1] - Nvidia has launched world models, application libraries and infrastructure for robot developers, with Cosmos Reason enabling robots to "reason like humans" [1] - The real test of an AI bubble burst is the credit spread of tech companies, and a widening spread may signal a crash [1] - The US market is facing stagflation risks, and it is recommended to short 10 - year US Treasury bonds [1] - The Chinese market is a value -洼地 favored by analysts [1] - Younger US stock retail investors are more risk - taking and less likely to panic - sell [1] - The global economy maintains an upward trend [1][2] Key Information from Different Perspectives Industry Trends - The Chinese humanoid robot industry is experiencing rapid product iteration, and its overall performance has significantly improved in just a few months [1] - AI is creating wealth on a large scale, with 498 AI "unicorn" companies valued over $10 billion globally, worth a total of $2.7 trillion, including 100 founded in 2023 or later, and over 1300 valued over $100 million [1] - Nvidia has introduced a series of products for robot developers, including the notable Cosmos Reason model [1] Market Risks and Opportunities - The credit spread of tech companies is the key indicator for an AI bubble burst [1] - The US market faces stagflation risks due to supply - side shocks [1] - The Chinese market is regarded as a value -洼地 and an attractive investment target [1] Economic Data and Policies - China's exports in July increased by 7.2%, and Sino - US reciprocal tariffs were extended for 90 days [1] - Maersk's Q2 performance exceeded expectations, with strong import growth in Europe, Latin America, West Asia, Central Asia and Africa offsetting the decline in North American imports [1] - The US Bureau of Statistics significantly revised down non - farm payroll data, and the market expects the Fed to cut interest rates by 50 basis points in September and accelerate rate cuts in 2026 [1] - China is comprehensively rectifying involution - style competition, which is expected to boost the performance of relevant listed companies [1] - The European Central Bank has cut interest rates 8 times, and Germany is expanding its military by 30%, which is expected to drive European economic growth [1]