丨证券研究报告丨 行业研究丨专题报告丨公用事业 [Table_Title] 电力行业 2025 年三季报前瞻：火电经营持续改 善，清洁能源延续分化 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 综合火电三要素，虽然三季度电价及电量延续回落，但考虑到三季度煤价仍有显著下降，北方 电厂及部分华东、华中地区火电运营商三季度业绩仍将维持积极表现。水电方面，7-8 月主汛 期电量的明显偏弱预计将限制主要水电公司三季度的业绩表现。核电方面，虽然三季度电量预 计稳健增长，但由于不同省份受电价下降影响不同，因此两核业绩或将有所分化。绿电方面， 虽然绿电 7-8 月全国利用小时数持续回落，但是如福建、上海、广东等东部沿海省份风电利用 小时明显修复，部分区域性新能源运营商预计实现优异的业绩表现。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] SAC：S0490517080003 SAC：S0490520120001 SAC：S0490520110001 SAC：S0490523080003 SFC：BQT627 1 公用事业 cjzqdt11111 [Table_Title 电力行业 2025 2] 年三季报前瞻：火电经营持续改 善 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the power and gas sectors, recommending specific companies for investment based on their performance and market conditions [3][16][18]. Core Insights - The report highlights that in August, the total electricity consumption reached 10,154 billion kWh, marking a year-on-year growth of 5.0%. The second industry contributed the largest increase, accounting for 59% of the total electricity increment [3][8][9]. - The report notes that global gas prices are experiencing slight fluctuations, with the Henry Hub spot price at $2.90/mmBtu and the TTF spot price at €32.15/MWh as of September 26 [18][19]. - The report emphasizes the stable growth in electricity consumption driven by high temperatures and government policies aimed at boosting consumption [8][9]. Summary by Sections 1. Electricity Sector - In August, the second industry saw a significant increase in electricity consumption, with a year-on-year growth of 5.0% and contributing 59% to the total electricity increment [3][9]. - The manufacturing sector achieved a record monthly growth rate, particularly in high-tech and equipment manufacturing, which grew by 9.1% year-on-year [9][10]. - The report recommends investments in hydropower, green energy, nuclear power, and thermal power companies, citing favorable conditions for growth and profitability [16][17]. 2. Gas Sector - The report indicates that the supply-demand dynamics for gas remain stable, with slight fluctuations in global gas prices. The LNG price in Northeast Asia decreased by 2.61% to $11.20/mmBtu [18][19]. - It highlights the steady increase in U.S. natural gas inventories and the impact of mild weather on heating and cooling demands, leading to low price volatility [21][27]. - The report suggests focusing on integrated gas companies and city gas firms that are expected to benefit from cost reductions and improved profitability [41][42]. 3. Market Performance Review - The report notes that the public utility and environmental sectors underperformed compared to the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 indices, while the power equipment sector outperformed [43][44]. 4. Company and Industry Dynamics - Recent government initiatives aim to enhance the quality of energy equipment and promote the development of renewable energy sources [52]. - The report includes updates on major companies' announcements, including contract wins and strategic investments, which are expected to positively impact their future performance [52][53]. 5. Key Company Valuation Table - The report provides a valuation table for key companies in the public utility and environmental sectors, indicating their market positions and potential for growth [54].

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the electricity industry in China, focusing on the performance of various energy sectors in the first half of 2025, including thermal, hydro, nuclear, and renewable energy sources [1][2][3]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Electricity Generation Growth**: In the first half of 2025, industrial electricity generation increased by 0.8% year-on-year, reaching 4,500 billion kWh. Thermal and hydro power faced significant competitive pressure, while nuclear, photovoltaic, and wind energy saw double-digit growth, with photovoltaic energy growing by 20% [1][4]. - **Electricity Price Trends**: The overall electricity price is under pressure and declining, with significant regional differentiation. Northern regions experienced smaller declines, while southern provinces saw more substantial drops, with some months exceeding 15% [1][5]. - **Coal Prices Impact**: Coal prices continued to decline due to weak demand, with the spot price of 5,500 kcal coal dropping by 27.6% year-on-year to 621 RMB/ton by the end of June. High inventory levels are expected to keep costs low in the third quarter [1][6]. - **Public Utility Sector Performance**: The public utility index outperformed the CSI 300 index by 2.2 percentage points, with a 2.23% increase in the public utility index compared to a 0.03% increase in the CSI 300 index [1][7]. - **Fund Holdings**: Public fund holdings in the public utility sector showed signs of recovery, with a combined holding ratio of 2.16% by the end of the second quarter [1][8]. Performance by Sector - **Thermal Power**: The thermal power sector reported a revenue decline of 3.7% to 572.6 billion RMB but achieved a net profit increase of 6.3% to 44.1 billion RMB, benefiting from lower coal prices [1][10]. - **Hydropower**: Despite challenges from high base figures and lower water levels, hydropower companies managed to achieve a revenue increase of 4.7% to 87.9 billion RMB and a net profit increase of 10.7% to 26.2 billion RMB [1][11]. - **Nuclear and Renewable Energy**: The nuclear and renewable energy sectors faced challenges, with revenues declining by 2% to 153 billion RMB and net profits decreasing by 6.4% to 25.1 billion RMB [1][12]. Investment Recommendations - **Thermal Power**: Focus on companies in southern regions like Baoneng New Energy and Guangzhou Development, as well as high-dividend stocks like Guodian Power [1][13]. - **Renewable Energy**: Look for opportunities in companies like Xintian Green Energy and Longyuan Power, which are expected to benefit from market reforms and policy support [1][13]. - **Hydropower**: Consider relatively undervalued assets in the hydropower sector for investment [1][13]. - **Nuclear Power**: Despite short-term pressures, long-term growth in installed capacity and asset expansion makes companies like China General Nuclear Power a focus for investment [1][13]. Additional Important Insights - The overall electricity consumption growth is expected to recover in the second half of 2025, with an annual growth forecast of around 5% [2]. - The elasticity of electricity consumption has decreased significantly, indicating a shift in demand dynamics [2]. This summary encapsulates the key points from the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the electricity industry's performance and outlook for 2025.

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [5] Core Views - The company's performance in the first half of 2025 met expectations, benefiting from the integration of conventional energy platforms within the Huadian Group [5] - The company reported a revenue of 60 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 8.98%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 13.15% to 3.904 billion yuan [6][5] - The average on-grid electricity price was 516.8 yuan/MWh, a decrease of 1.44% year-on-year, indicating stable electricity pricing despite a decline in revenue [5] Financial Summary - Revenue projections for 2023 to 2027 are as follows: 117,176 million yuan (2023), 112,994 million yuan (2024), 117,075 million yuan (2025E), 125,303 million yuan (2026E), and 126,744 million yuan (2027E) [6][7] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to grow from 4,522 million yuan in 2023 to 7,761 million yuan in 2027, with a significant year-on-year growth rate of 4,430.69% in 2023 [6][7] - The company's earnings per share (EPS) is expected to increase from 0.39 yuan in 2023 to 0.67 yuan in 2027 [6][7] - The company completed the acquisition of 16GW of thermal power assets from Huadian Group, with a total transaction price of 7.167 billion yuan [5][6]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" and maintained [9] Core Views - The report highlights that the optimization of fuel costs is insufficient to offset the dual weakness in coal and electricity prices, leading to significant pressure on revenue and profits. In the first half of 2025, the coal power business achieved a net profit attributable to shareholders of 29.1 million yuan, a year-on-year decline of 90.48%. The gas power business reported a net loss of 217.9 million yuan, a significant turnaround from profit due to a sharp increase in operating costs. The renewable energy segment also faced challenges, with a net profit of 103 million yuan, down 48.15% year-on-year. Overall, the company's net profit attributable to shareholders was 32 million yuan, a decrease of 96.40% year-on-year. However, in the second quarter, the company saw a recovery in profitability, achieving a net profit of 415 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 46.52%, but turning profitable compared to the first quarter [2][6][12]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company reported operating revenue of 23.141 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 11.26%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 32 million yuan, down 96.40% year-on-year [6][12]. - The coal power segment generated 13.887 billion yuan in revenue, a decline of 19.70% year-on-year, while the gas power segment saw a slight revenue increase of 2.23% year-on-year [12]. - The average on-grid electricity price decreased by 0.059 yuan per kilowatt-hour to 0.480 yuan per kilowatt-hour, reflecting increased competition in the Guangdong electricity market [12]. Cost and Profitability - Despite a decrease in coal prices leading to an 11.48% reduction in fuel costs, the overall cost optimization was insufficient to counteract the revenue decline. The coal power segment's operating costs fell by 16.05%, but this was less than the revenue drop [12]. - The renewable energy segment's operating costs increased by 22.41% year-on-year, significantly outpacing revenue growth, which contributed to the decline in profitability [12]. Future Outlook - The report adjusts the earnings forecast for the company, projecting EPS of 0.11 yuan, 0.22 yuan, and 0.30 yuan for 2025-2027, with corresponding PE ratios of 43.02, 20.85, and 15.33 [12].

Core Viewpoint - The report from Guosheng Securities indicates that the overall performance of the power sector in the first half of 2025 meets expectations, with thermal power experiencing a decline in revenue but an increase in profit, hydropower remaining stable, and green energy facing pressure [1][2]. Summary by Category Performance Overview - In the first half of 2025, the power sector (SW) listed companies achieved total operating revenue of 911.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.54%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders reached 102.7 billion yuan, an increase of 3.44% [2]. - Thermal power generated operating revenue of 572.6 billion yuan, down 3.70% year-on-year, but net profit increased by 6.31% to 44.1 billion yuan [2]. - Hydropower's operating revenue was 87.9 billion yuan, up 4.69% year-on-year, with net profit rising by 10.70% to 26.2 billion yuan [2]. - New energy generation (including nuclear power) faced challenges, with operating revenue of 153.0 billion yuan, a decline of 2.18%, and net profit down 6.42% to 25.1 billion yuan [2]. Thermal Power Insights - The significant drop in coal prices since the beginning of the year has mitigated the pressure from declining volume and price; however, regional price differentiation remains a challenge [2]. - The upcoming comprehensive adjustment of capacity prices in 2026 is expected to reshape the profitability model of thermal power [2]. - Recommended investment themes include stable performance targets with expected stable electricity prices, and high-dividend quality stocks as capital expenditure peaks [2]. Hydropower and Nuclear Power Potential - Hydropower companies are expected to benefit from decreasing interest expenses and the expiration of depreciation on power station units, which will continue to release profit space [3]. - Nuclear power is seeing a normalization in unit approvals, with accelerated investment and technology in nuclear fusion, indicating potential for commercialization [3]. Green Energy Outlook - The "Document 136" promotes the comprehensive entry of new energy into market trading, with rapid installation in the first half of the year leading to increased consumption challenges in the second half, impacting market prices [3]. - Policies supporting green energy consumption, such as direct connections and green certificate policies, are expected to catalyze growth in this sector [3]. - Recommended focus on undervalued green energy stocks, particularly in the Hong Kong market, and wind power operators with stable electricity price expectations [4]. Investment Recommendations - Key thermal power stocks to watch include Huadian International, Huaneng International, Baoneng New Energy, Guangzhou Development, and Guodian Power [4]. - For green energy, prioritize undervalued stocks in the Hong Kong market and wind power operators, with a focus on Xintian Green Energy and Longyuan Power [4]. - In hydropower and nuclear sectors, recommended stocks include Yangtze Power, State Power Investment Corporation, Sichuan Investment Energy, China National Nuclear Power, and China General Nuclear Power [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for Huadian International, expecting it to outperform the benchmark index by over 20% in the next six months [1][25]. Core Insights - The company's performance in the first half of 2025 shows a net profit attributable to shareholders of 3.904 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13.15%, with Q2 net profit reaching 1.973 billion yuan, up 24.27% year-on-year [1]. - Revenue for the first half of 2025 was 59.953 billion yuan, a decrease of 8.98% year-on-year, while Q2 revenue was 33.376 billion yuan, down 4.42% year-on-year [1]. - The gross profit margin improved to 10.72% in the first half of 2025, an increase of 2.10 percentage points year-on-year [1]. Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue and Profitability**: - Total revenue for 2024 is projected at 112.994 billion yuan, with a growth rate of -3.6%. For 2025, revenue is expected to rise to 126.910 billion yuan, reflecting a growth rate of 12.3% [4]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be 5.703 billion yuan in 2024, increasing to 7.086 billion yuan in 2025, with a growth rate of 24.3% [4]. - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: - EPS is projected to be 0.49 yuan in 2024, increasing to 0.61 yuan in 2025, and further to 0.69 yuan in 2026 [4]. - **Valuation Metrics**: - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is expected to decrease from 11 in 2024 to 9 in 2025, and further to 8 in 2026 [4]. - The price-to-book (P/B) ratio is projected to decline from 0.9 in 2024 to 0.8 in 2025 [4]. Operational Data Summary - **Power Generation**: - In the first half of 2025, the company generated 120.621 billion kWh of electricity, a year-on-year decrease of 6.41% [8]. - The average utilization hours for power generation units were 1,595 hours, down 115 hours year-on-year [8]. - **Installed Capacity**: - As of August 2025, the company's installed capacity reached 77.4 GW, with coal, gas, and hydropower capacities at 54.4 GW, 20.6 GW, and 2.5 GW respectively [8]. - **Cost Management**: - Fuel costs in the first half of 2025 were approximately 37.952 billion yuan, a decrease of 13.28% year-on-year, primarily due to falling coal prices [8]. Investment Recommendation - The report forecasts net profits of 7.1 billion yuan in 2025, 8.0 billion yuan in 2026, and 9.1 billion yuan in 2027, with corresponding growth rates of 24.3%, 12.6%, and 14.1% [8]. - The target price for the stock is set at 7.3 yuan, representing a potential upside of approximately 38% from the current price of 5.33 yuan [8].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On August 27, the main contracts 2601 of coke and coking coal futures weakened again after a weak rebound, giving back most of the gains since August 22. It is recommended to view the market with the idea of a rebound followed by a decline. The stabilization and rebound of coal and coke futures still depend on the recovery of the terminal demand in the steel market [5][11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - **Futures Market**: On August 27, the main contract J2601 of coke futures closed at 1669.5 yuan/ton, down 2.82%; the main contract JM2601 of coking coal futures closed at 1154 yuan/ton, down 3.87%. The KDJ indicators of the daily lines of both contracts showed a downward trend, and the MACD green columns continued to expand for two days [5][7]. - **Spot Market**: The ex - warehouse price index of quasi - first - class metallurgical coke in ports remained unchanged. The summary price of low - sulfur main coking coal in some areas increased by 30 yuan/ton. The production of independent coking plants increased slightly, while the production of steel mills decreased. The inventory of port coke declined for two consecutive weeks, and steel mills continued to reduce inventory [7][10]. 3.2 Future Outlook - **News**: From August 25 to September 3, some coking enterprises in Henan Province will implement independent production restrictions of 20 - 35%. Since August 26, coking enterprises have raised the coke price. On August 20, Mongolia passed a government resolution on increasing export measures [9]. - **Fundamentals**: In terms of coke, the production of independent coking plants increased slightly, and the production of steel mills decreased. The inventory of ports and steel mills decreased, while the inventory of coking plants increased slightly. The profit per ton of coke has been profitable for two consecutive weeks. In terms of coking coal, from January to July, the year - on - year decline in the import volume of coal and lignite expanded, and the inventory of mines and coking plants changed. The spot price of coking coal is difficult to rise continuously [10]. 3.3 Industry News - From January to July, the total profit of industrial enterprises above designated size decreased by 1.7% year - on - year. The performance of some coal and steel enterprises in the first half of 2025 declined. The western oil and gas energy corridor project in Xinjiang achieved a breakthrough. The demand for green power is expected to increase, and the coal price of thermal power is expected to decline. The cement industry in Fujian and Jiangxi provinces held a meeting to discuss "anti - involution". The anti - dumping review of Chinese steel products in Australia was postponed, and the export of Russian thermal coal increased [12][13][14]. 3.4 Data Overview The report provides multiple data charts, including the spot price index of metallurgical coke, the summary price of main coking coal, the production and capacity utilization rate of coking plants and steel mills, the inventory of coke and coking coal, and the basis of futures contracts [16][19][20][32].

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a decrease in profit for the first half of 2025, with a profit attributable to shareholders of HKD 7.872 billion, down 15.9% year-on-year, while core business profit slightly increased by 0.1% to HKD 8.278 billion [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - The company plans to distribute an interim dividend of HKD 0.356 per share for the first half of 2025 [1] - The average on-grid electricity price for the company's coal-fired power plants was HKD 391.2 per MWh, a decrease of 6.1% year-on-year, while the average coal price was HKD 823.8 per ton, down 11.8% [2] - The core profit before tax from the renewable energy business was HKD 71.48 billion, an increase of 7.4% year-on-year, while the profit attributable to shareholders was HKD 56.37 billion, up 1.5% [3] Group 2: Capacity and Production - The company added approximately 4,839 MW of new wind and solar capacity and 894 MW of new coal-fired capacity in the first half of 2025 [1] - As of the end of June, the company had a total coal-fired power capacity of 39.14 GW, wind power capacity of 25.55 GW, and solar power capacity of 12.97 GW [1] - The company plans to add a total of 10,000 MW of new wind and solar capacity by the end of the year, consistent with its initial target [1] Group 3: Market Dynamics - The increase in core profit from pure coal-fired power operations was 21% year-on-year, driven by a relaxed power supply-demand balance and declining fuel prices [2] - The price difference for coal-fired power plants increased by HKD 9.6 per MWh year-on-year, primarily due to the larger decline in coal prices compared to electricity prices [2] - The average on-grid electricity price for the company's wind power plants was HKD 396.8 per MWh, down 11.0% year-on-year, and for solar power plants, it was HKD 304.9 per MWh, down 6.1% [3]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [9]. Core Views - The company's clean energy performance has been under pressure due to reduced water inflow, with hydroelectric net profit decreasing by 28.2% year-on-year. However, the thermal power segment showed improvement, achieving a net profit of 1.428 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 28.89%. Overall, the company reported a profit attributable to ordinary shareholders of 2.587 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year growth of 0.65% [2][6]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 23.858 billion yuan, a decrease of 9.87% year-on-year. The net profit attributable to ordinary shareholders was 2.587 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 0.65% year-on-year [6]. Clean Energy Segment - The hydroelectric segment faced challenges with a significant drop in sales volume by 23.02%, leading to a net profit of 550 million yuan, down 28.2% year-on-year. The average on-grid electricity price for hydroelectric power increased slightly to 0.278 yuan/kWh [6]. - The wind power segment saw a net profit increase of 8.36% year-on-year, reaching 2.124 billion yuan, supported by a 26.90% increase in sales volume. However, the average on-grid price decreased by 0.036 yuan/kWh [6]. - The photovoltaic segment's net profit decreased by 36.9% year-on-year to 716 million yuan, impacted by lower resource availability and increased competition [6]. Thermal Power Segment - The thermal power segment's sales volume decreased by 14.03% year-on-year, but net profit improved to 1.428 billion yuan, a growth of 28.89% year-on-year, due to a significant drop in coal prices [6]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to benefit from the acceleration of asset securitization and has a positive outlook on growth opportunities from both internal and external sources. Projected earnings for 2025-2027 are 4.132 billion, 4.744 billion, and 5.132 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.33, 0.38, and 0.41 yuan [2][6].