据新华社等多家媒体报道，美国联邦检察官已对美国联邦储备委员会主席鲍威尔展开刑事调查，调查涉及美联储 办公大楼的翻修工程。当地时间1月11日，鲍威尔回应称，检方对他进行刑事调查是破坏美联储在设定利率方 面"独立性"的"借口"。南都N视频记者注意到，美国总统特朗普曾于2025年12月底公开表示，他预计明年1月宣布 美国联邦储备委员会主席鲍威尔的继任人选。 2017年，特朗普在其第一个总统任期中提名鲍威尔领导美联储。自2025年1月第二次出任美国总统以来，特朗普一 直敦促美联储降息，希望借此提振经济，降低政府借贷成本。因不满美联储未能积极降息，特朗普多次要求鲍威 尔辞职。 南都此前报道，2025年4月，美国国内举行了约1300场针对特朗普政府和美国知名企业家马斯克的大规模抗议活 动，"特朗普衰退"的论调在持续蔓延。 中国社会科学院世界经济与政治研究所研究员、外交政策研究室主任肖河曾向南都记者指出，共和党内的部分人 群正在传出"故意制造一场'特朗普衰退'可能反而是有利的"的说法。 "美联储一直因为高通胀率拒绝降低利率，但如果衰退状态成为现实，美联储可能会迫于压力降低利率。也有来自 美国的企业、咨询公司等向我们指出，确 ...

Core Viewpoint - Trump's proposal to distribute $2,000 "tariff dividends" to American citizens raises questions about the feasibility and implications of such a plan, particularly regarding funding sources and potential economic consequences [1][22]. Funding Sources - Trump's claim that the funds will come from increased tariff revenues is based on the U.S. Treasury's report indicating a record $195 billion in tariff income for FY2025, a 150% increase from FY2024 [3]. - However, the actual daily tariff revenue is approximately $5.3 million, contradicting Trump's assertion of $2 billion per day [3]. Financial Viability - With over 220 million low- to middle-income adults in the U.S., distributing $2,000 each would cost around $440 billion, and a broader coverage could push the total to $600 billion, significantly exceeding current tariff revenues [5]. - The U.S. Treasury Secretary has suggested that the "dividends" may not be direct cash payments but rather tax reductions, indicating a shift from Trump's initial cash distribution narrative [5][7]. Legal and Economic Concerns - Trump's use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act to implement tariffs raises constitutional questions, with the Supreme Court currently reviewing the legality of these actions [7]. - The potential for inflation to rise again due to large-scale fiscal stimulus is a concern, especially with current inflation rates around 3%, which are still above the Federal Reserve's target [9][11]. Political Implications - Politically, the proposal may resonate with voters facing rising living costs, as it mirrors past strategies used during the pandemic to gain electoral support [13]. - Trump's narrative of "America first" suggests that foreign entities are funding these dividends, but the reality of who bears the economic burden is more complex [14]. Economic Impact - Tariffs, while generating short-term revenue, may harm U.S. businesses in the long run, with estimates indicating over $80 billion in losses for American companies in 2025 due to increased costs from tariffs [16]. - The retaliatory tariffs imposed by other countries have diminished the competitiveness of U.S. products globally, leading to a potential restructuring of supply chains away from the U.S. [18][20]. Conclusion - The logic behind Trump's "tariff dividends" appears flawed, as the funding is insufficient to support the proposed plan, and the broader economic implications could lead to higher prices and reduced purchasing power for consumers [22][23].

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing conflict between President Trump and Federal Reserve Chairman Powell centers around monetary policy disagreements, particularly Trump's calls for interest rate cuts and his attempts to pressure Powell regarding the Fed's renovation project [1][7][19] Group 1: Pressure on Powell - Trump has publicly urged Powell to lower interest rates, claiming that a 3% cut could save the U.S. $1 trillion annually [1] - The renovation project of the Federal Reserve headquarters has become a focal point for Trump's criticism, with accusations of excessive spending and mismanagement [2][6] - Powell has defended the renovation, stating it has undergone strict oversight since its approval in 2017 and is necessary due to the age of the buildings [2][6] Group 2: Legal and Political Implications - Legal experts suggest that Trump's rationale for potentially firing Powell lacks substantial evidence and may not meet the legal criteria for dismissal [7][11] - The Federal Reserve operates under a collective decision-making process, meaning that even if a new chairman were appointed, they would still require support from other committee members to change interest rates [11][12] - Historical context shows that attempts by presidents to dismiss Federal Reserve chairs have generally been unsuccessful, emphasizing the independence of the Fed [18][19] Group 3: Economic Context - Recent economic data indicates a slowdown, with the U.S. GDP contracting by 0.5% in Q1 2025, raising concerns about a potential technical recession [17] - Trump's push for rate cuts appears to be an attempt to shift blame for economic performance onto Powell and the Fed, as the anticipated economic recovery has not materialized [17][19] - The Fed's independence is crucial for maintaining financial market stability, and Trump's actions are seen as a challenge to this independence [17][19]

Group 1 - The MSCI ACWI index reached its highest value since February 18 on June 26, indicating a recovery in investor confidence as fears of a "Trump recession" diminish [1][2] - The index has increased by 20% since hitting a recent low on April 8, following concerns over U.S. tariff policies [2] - Positive developments in U.S.-China negotiations have improved investor sentiment, with potential policy changes that could favor U.S. consumers [2][3] Group 2 - The current stock market highs are supported by expectations of U.S. interest rate cuts and the high growth potential of AI-related stocks [3] - There is a growing belief that the Federal Reserve may cut rates at least twice this year, with 60% of investors anticipating such moves [3] - Geopolitical risks have eased, contributing to lower inflation pressures and bolstering rate cut expectations [3] Group 3 - U.S. technology stocks, particularly in the AI sector, have shown strong performance, with significant increases in market capitalization for companies like Microsoft, NVIDIA, and Broadcom [3][4] - The earnings outlook for S&P 500 companies is improving, with a projected 9% growth in earnings per share for 2025, despite a slight slowdown from previous expectations [4][5] - There are concerns about potential economic overheat due to pre-tariff purchasing, which may lead to a false sense of prosperity [5]

Group 1 - The current market situation indicates the beginning of a prolonged economic war rather than the end of trade disputes, as highlighted by Capital Economics' chief analyst Kyle Rodda [3] - Recent data shows an unexpected rise in initial jobless claims in the U.S. to 268,000, and the first quarter GDP revision was lowered to 1.1%, raising concerns about a potential "Trump recession" [3] - The U.S. 30-year Treasury auction faced historic cold reception with the winning yield soaring to 4.85%, while Japan's central bank had to intervene to suppress the 10-year bond yield, indicating unsustainable fiscal conditions in both countries [3] Group 2 - The core CPI in Tokyo rose by 3.2% year-on-year, leading to a 0.3% jump in the yen, as markets speculate on a potential interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan in July, contrasting with expectations of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve [3] - The dollar/yen monthly line still shows a modest decline of 0.5%, primarily due to safe-haven demand triggered by Trump's "America First" policy [3] - Economies.com analysts noted that the recent pullback in spot gold prices is a corrective move aimed at consolidating previous gains and addressing the overbought conditions indicated by the RSI [4]

Market Overview - A-shares experienced a collective rebound on April 10, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.93% and the ChiNext Index increasing by 2.4% [1][2] - The market saw active performance in sectors such as consumer electronics, robotics, AI applications, and precious metals, with nearly 5,000 stocks rising [1] Precious Metals Sector - The precious metals sector showed significant movement, with Sichuan Gold hitting the daily limit [5] - As of 11:26 AM, spot gold prices broke above $1,310 per ounce, gaining nearly $50, a rise of 1.6% [6] - London gold prices increased by 1.55% year-to-date, while COMEX gold rose by 1.99% [7] Company Responses to Tariff Policies - Several companies, including Cambrian and Tengda Technology, reported that the recent U.S. tariff policies would have limited impact on their operations, with overseas revenue constituting less than 1% of total income [12][14] - Companies like Far East Holdings emphasized their focus on domestic supply chains, indicating minimal effects from the tariffs [15] Economic Outlook and Tariff Impact - The U.S. economic growth forecast has been downgraded, with expectations of growth significantly below 2% for the year [18] - The imposition of tariffs has led to increased volatility in the U.S. stock market, with major indices experiencing substantial gains on April 9, including a 12.16% rise in the Nasdaq Composite [20] - Despite the market rebound, concerns about ongoing tariff negotiations and potential recession risks remain prevalent, with a 79% probability of recession indicated by JPMorgan's metrics [22]

Group 1 - Trump has expressed the possibility of seeking a third presidential term, stating that it is too early to consider it seriously, and mentioned that "there are ways to do it" [1] - The 22nd Amendment of the U.S. Constitution limits presidents to two four-year terms, making it extremely difficult to overturn this amendment, requiring a two-thirds majority in both houses of Congress and approval from three-fourths of state legislatures [1] - Trump, at the age of 78, became the oldest president to assume office, surpassing Biden's record [1] Group 2 - Trump has run for president three times, first winning the election in 2016 and later losing in 2020, before announcing his candidacy again in 2022 [2] - Trump's political career began in 2015 when he announced his candidacy as a Republican, and he was officially nominated as the Republican candidate for the 2024 election in July 2024 [2] Group 3 - Concerns over a potential "Trump recession" have significantly impacted the U.S. stock market, with the market capitalization of the "Tech Seven" dropping by $2.7 trillion in three weeks [3] - Analysts warn that Trump's escalating tariff policies could lead to a recession or stagflation, drawing parallels to the policies of President Hoover during the Great Depression [3] - Goldman Sachs reported that the price-to-earnings ratio of the S&P 500 has increased by 25% over the past two years, indicating a potentially risky valuation for investors, with the current P/E ratio around 28 times [3] Group 4 - The cyclically adjusted P/E ratio of the S&P 500 is approximately 35 times, and historically, when this ratio exceeds 30, major U.S. stock indices have experienced declines ranging from 20% to 89% [4]

Group 1 - The Trump administration's tariff policies have significantly impacted the U.S. stock market, with the Dow Jones down 3.50%, S&P 500 down 5.36%, and Nasdaq down 9.57% since January 20 [1] - Recent reports indicate that Trump is set to announce a reciprocal tariff policy on April 2, which may exclude certain countries [1] - Senator Daines, a close ally of Trump, has traveled to China to negotiate, expressing a desire to enhance U.S.-China trade relations and increase U.S. exports to China [1] Group 2 - Daines has raised concerns about China's insufficient control over fentanyl exports, linking it to the opioid crisis in the U.S. and threatening that trade discussions could be jeopardized if not addressed [3] - The U.S. is the largest consumer of fentanyl, and issues stem from domestic regulatory failures rather than solely from Chinese exports [3] - The narrative of blaming China for fentanyl issues serves to distract from the systemic failures of the U.S. drug control system, with fentanyl overdose deaths rising 73% from 2020 [5] Group 3 - The U.S. government's approach to the fentanyl crisis appears to be politically motivated, using it as a pretext for imposing tariffs on Chinese goods while failing to address domestic issues [5] - China's recent implementation of the Foreign Sanctions Law demonstrates its commitment to protecting its interests in the face of U.S. pressure [7] - The ongoing U.S.-China trade tensions reflect a complex geopolitical landscape, with both sides employing strategic maneuvers to assert their positions [7]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. government, under President Trump, has announced a 25% tariff on goods imported from countries that purchase Venezuelan oil, effective April 2, as a response to Venezuela's perceived hostility towards the U.S. [3][4] Group 1: U.S. Tariff Announcement - President Trump signed an executive order imposing "tariff sanctions" on countries importing Venezuelan oil, with a potential 25% tariff on all goods from these nations starting April 2 [3]. - The Secretary of State has the authority to decide on the imposition of the 25% tariff, which will last for one year from the last import date of Venezuelan oil or until an earlier date agreed upon by relevant U.S. officials [3]. - Trump characterized the tariff as a necessary measure against Venezuela, which he claims is hostile towards the U.S. [3]. Group 2: Venezuelan Response - Venezuela's Foreign Ministry condemned the U.S. tariff as "illegal" and "arbitrary," asserting that it violates international trade agreements [4]. - The Venezuelan government plans to take appropriate actions in international institutions to defend its rights against what it views as a new act of aggression by the U.S. [4]. Group 3: Broader Economic Implications - Trump indicated that he may offer tariff exemptions to many countries if they achieve "reciprocal" trade terms, with the EU agreeing to lower auto tariffs to match U.S. levels [6][7]. - Concerns are rising among economists and market participants regarding the potential for a U.S. economic downturn, with a 40% probability of recession predicted for the year, up from an earlier estimate of 30% [7].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent executive order signed by President Trump imposing a 25% tariff on goods imported from countries that directly or indirectly import Venezuelan oil, effective April 2. This move is expected to impact international oil prices and trade relations significantly [1][3][4]. Group 1: Tariff Implementation - The U.S. will impose a 25% tariff on all goods from countries importing Venezuelan oil starting April 2 [3][4]. - The Secretary of State has the authority to decide on the implementation of these tariffs, which will last for one year from the last import date of Venezuelan oil [3][4]. - Trump referred to this tariff as a "secondary tariff," similar to secondary sanctions aimed at third-party countries [4]. Group 2: Impact on Oil Prices - Following the announcement, international oil prices surged, with WTI crude oil futures rising by 1.21% to $69.11 per barrel, marking the highest level since March 4 [1][4]. - Brent crude oil futures also increased by 1.16%, reaching $73.00 per barrel [1][4]. Group 3: Additional Tariffs - Trump indicated plans to announce additional tariffs on automobiles, wood, and chips in the coming days, suggesting a broader approach to tariffs beyond the Venezuelan oil issue [7][8]. - He mentioned that not all tariffs would take effect on April 2, hinting at potential exemptions for certain countries [7][9]. Group 4: Economic Concerns - Analysts express concerns that escalating tariffs could lead to economic downturns in the U.S., with predictions of a 40% chance of recession this year, up from 30% earlier [10]. - The potential for stagflation, characterized by slow growth and high inflation, is also highlighted as a significant risk [10].