9月23日，国家能源局发布8月份全社会用电量等数据。8月份，全社会用电量10154亿千瓦时，同比增长 5.0%。这意味着我国7、8月份连续两个月用电量突破万亿千瓦时大关。 中国能源研究会配售电专委会副秘书长吴俊宏告诉新京报零碳研究院，电力连续破万亿，一方面是今夏 的气温对用电量产生了直接而显著的影响，另一方面毫无疑问是经济稳中向好的重要表现。 新京报零碳研究院研究员 陶野 编辑 陈莉 校对 杨利 中国月度用电量再次创下世界纪录。 ▲图/ic 产业用电增速快于居民用电，新质生产力崛起 高温天气带动居民空调开启的同时，更多工厂机器的轰鸣声正在成为用电量攀升的重要推手。 8月份产业用电增速快于居民用电。从分产业用电看，第一产业用电量164亿千瓦时，同比增长9.7%； 第二产业用电量5981亿千瓦时，同比增长5.0%；第三产业用电量2046亿千瓦时，同比增长7.2%；城乡 居民生活用电量1963亿千瓦时，同比增长2.4%。 中国电力企业联合会统计与数智部副主任蒋德斌分析，今年8月份全国全社会用电量再次超过万亿千瓦 时。除了与高温天气因素有关，在国家"两新""两重"促消费等一系列政策拉动下，宏观经济保持回暖态 势，各行 ...

Summary of Green Power Environmental Conference Call Company Overview - Green Power Environmental operates 37 waste-to-energy projects with a daily processing capacity of 40,300 tons, ranking in the second tier of the industry [2][3] - The company is primarily supported by Beijing State-owned Assets, holding 44.4% of the shares, which provides stability and financial backing, especially during expansion phases [2][5] Industry Dynamics - The waste incineration industry is shifting focus from new project construction to enhancing operational efficiency [2][5] - Green Power Environmental has shown good operational efficiency but still has room for improvement in capacity utilization, self-generated electricity ratio, and revenue per ton of waste [2][5][6] Financial Performance - The company's operating revenue accounts for 98.9%, with a significant increase in revenue since 2021 due to changes in accounting standards [3][12] - Expected construction revenue will decline to approximately 40 million yuan by 2024 due to a lack of new projects [3] - The gross profit margin is projected to recover to 45.4% by 2024, with a net profit margin of 17.7% [12] Growth Strategies - Green Power is expanding its B2B business, including mobile energy storage, heating, gas supply, and biogas purification, to counteract the decline in profitability from reduced state subsidies [2][6] - The gas supply volume increased by 116% year-on-year to 515,500 tons in the first half of 2025 [2][6] Shareholder Returns - The company has significantly increased its dividend payout ratio from 33.2% to 71.5%, with future expectations to reach 70%-80% [4][10] - Projected dividend yields for A-shares are estimated at 4.27%-5.66% and for H-shares at 6.17%-8.18% from 2025 to 2027 [4][17] Operational Efficiency - The company has a daily waste processing capacity of 2,850 tons in Beijing and is actively expanding its electricity and heating supply to industrial enterprises [8] - The company aims to improve operational metrics through refined management and internal restructuring [7][6] Debt and Cash Flow Management - The financial expense ratio has decreased from 19% to 17.8% due to scale effects, with expectations for further reduction [13] - The company’s cash flow from operating activities has improved, reaching 1.44 billion yuan by 2024 [16] Investment Value - Green Power's stable growth and potential for exceeding expectations in its heating supply business enhance its investment appeal [18] - The high dividend yield of H-shares positions the company as a competitive investment option [18]

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the chemical industry, particularly the petrochemical sector, which is facing challenges such as overcapacity and declining profitability [1][6][15]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Government Policies**: The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) has revised the Price Law and implemented measures to address excessive investment and price competition below cost, aiming to restore fair competition [1][2][4]. 2. **Challenges in the Petrochemical Industry**: The industry is experiencing significant overcapacity, with production capacity increasing by over 50% from 2020 to 2024, yet overall output value has not increased, leading to declining profitability [6][15]. 3. **Investment Opportunities**: The chemical industry is currently undervalued, with low price-to-book (PB) ratios and low holding ratios, presenting a good investment opportunity. The prices of chemical products are elastic and can transmit inflation, making it a favorable time to invest [2][16]. 4. **Focus on Specific Sub-industries**: Attention should be given to sub-industries with high loss levels, old equipment ratios, and high energy consumption, such as spandex, titanium dioxide, organic silicon, nylon, coal chemical, and soda ash [17][18]. 5. **Regulatory Changes**: The revised Price Law emphasizes cost monitoring to combat disorderly price competition, including low-cost dumping, and aims to transition to a more market-oriented pricing mechanism [7][15]. 6. **Environmental Regulations**: New policies, such as the Fixed Asset Investment Energy Saving Review and Carbon Emission Evaluation Measures, aim to control new capacity and promote the orderly exit of outdated production capacity [8][10][11]. 7. **Supply-side Reform**: The current policies reflect lessons learned from previous supply-side reforms, focusing on eliminating outdated capacity and ensuring compliance with national standards [19][20]. Additional Important Content - **Market Dynamics**: The chemical industry is characterized by low valuations and significant potential for recovery, with the government promoting a unified national market to stabilize growth [2][20]. - **Future Trends**: The industry is expected to enter a new upward cycle, driven by government policies aimed at stabilizing growth and addressing overcapacity issues [20]. - **Investment Strategy**: Investors are encouraged to focus on leading companies in high-loss sub-industries that meet specific criteria, as these companies are likely to benefit from the current policy environment [18][20].

近期，我国碳市场领域迎来首份中央文件。中办、国办发布的《关于推进绿色低碳转型加强全国碳 市场建设的意见》（以下简称《意见》），明确了全国碳市场中长期发展的时间表、路线图、任务书， 并要求加强碳排放核算与报告管理，完善信息披露制度。 《意见》明确全国碳市场是实现"双碳"目标的重要制度抓手，提升了碳市场在国家气候治理体系中 的战略地位。同时，《意见》在市场层面提出扩大覆盖行业、完善配额分配、健全市场机制。特别是在 金融层面，将逐步丰富交易产品，扩展交易主体，强化金融机构参与，同时强调风险可控。 今年是全国碳市场正式运行四周年，业内人士普遍认为，《意见》为全国碳市场从"起步期"迈 向"深化期"划定了航道。兴业碳金融研究院首席研究员钱立华表示，《意见》的发布为我国碳市场的中 远期发展提供了清晰的发展规划，标志着碳市场建设进入全面深化阶段。 其中，碳排放核算与信息披露制度的系统性重构，不仅是衔接强制减排与自愿减排双市场的关键纽 带，更成为破解当前市场数据质量瓶颈、激活碳价信号功能的核心抓手。在行业总量控制节点临近的背 景下，这两大制度的落地正深刻重塑企业低碳转型逻辑与市场运行生态。 从强度基准法到总量管控 配额分配再优 ...

文/ 国家发展和改革委员会主任 郑栅洁 受国务院委托，国家发展改革委主任郑栅洁9月1 0日向全国人大常委会报 告今年以来国民经济和社会发展计划执行情况。郑栅洁表示，做好下半年 经济工作，要坚持稳中求进工作总基调，完整准确全面贯彻新发展理念， 加快构建新发展格局，更好统筹国内经济工作和国际经贸斗争，统筹高质 量发展和高水平安全，保持政策连续性稳定性，增强灵活性预见性，着力 稳就业、稳企业、稳市场、稳预期，有力促进国内国际双循环，统筹推动 物价水平合理回升、社会就业大局稳定与经济增长，稳住经济基本盘，努 力完成全年经济社会发展目标任务。 围绕下半年经济工作， 郑栅洁 指出，实施好党中央部署的各项政策措施，不断释放内需潜力，进一步推动科技创新和产业创新深度融合，坚定不 移深化改革扩大开放，持续用力防范化解重点领域风险，全面推进区域协调发展和城乡融合发展，以碳排放双控全面转型推动绿色低碳发展，多措 并举保障改善民生，加强重点领域安全能力建设。 在实施好党中央部署的各项政策措施方面， 郑栅洁 指出，加快落实中央经济工作会议等各项部署，加快稳就业、稳企业、稳市场、稳预期，推动 相关举措落地见效。落实落细更加积极的财政政策 ...

四是发挥公众的主体功能。公民的参与和支持是绿色低碳发展的基础。应通过政策积极发动公众，在居 家、消费、生产、出行等各方面践行节能低碳理念。开展社区生态环境教育与低碳生活培训，提升绿色 消费意识与行动力。拓展多元低碳场景，从公共交通、垃圾分类、无纸办公等日常领域，延伸至绿色建 筑改造、二手物品交易、分布式光伏安装等高减排领域，提高公众的参与度。加强社区自治微循环，组 织旧物回收、绿地维护等在地化项目，推广低碳活动，提升公众主动参与节能减排的积极性。 二是发挥企业资源配置的作用。企业应积极履行节能减排社会责任，通过管理创新、技术创新实现经济 与环境效益双赢。应建立能耗双控向碳排放双控转型的新机制，加快构建碳排放总量和强度双控制度体 系，推动企业绿色低碳发展。浙江等地的低碳试点城市经验值得推广，比如，浙江对高碳企业强化环境 管制，对绿色科技企业提供财税支持，推动其绿色专利增长。榆林、鄂尔多斯等资源型城市，通过技术 补贴推动煤炭企业应用智能开采设备，降低吨煤能耗。推进碳金融创新，利用碳排放权质押融资、"碳 汇保险"及绿色债券等支持企业绿色转型。鼓励企业通过供应链协同降碳，比如，浙江吉利等链主企业 要求上下游产业链相关 ...

9月10日，受国务院委托，国家发展改革委主任郑栅洁向全国人大常委会报告今年以来国民经济和社会 发展计划执行情况。 郑栅洁在报告中介绍，从目前掌握的经济社会发展相关数据以及各方面了解的情况看，计划执行情况总 体较好。经济增长、就业、消费、外贸进出口、居民收入、基本养老保险、粮食能源生产、绿色生态、 金融等指标进展顺利。从工作成效看，主要体现在6个方面：宏观政策更加积极有为、及时发力显效； 国内需求全方位扩大；产业发展优化升级；改革开放不断深化；区域协调发展和城乡融合发展稳步推 进；民生保障等重点工作扎实有力。 在持续用力防范化解重点领域风险方面，报告要求，积极稳妥化解地方政府债务风险，有序化解融资平 台金融债务风险，认真落实党政机关过紧日子要求。加快构建房地产发展新模式，结合城市更新稳步推 进城中村和危旧房改造，扎实有力推进"好房子"建设。有序处置金融风险，按照市场化法治化原则支持 中小银行风险处置。巩固资本市场回稳向好势头，更大力度培育壮大耐心资本、长期资本。 报告提到，以碳排放双控全面转型推动绿色低碳发展。加强生态环境保护，统筹推进美丽中国先行区建 设，落实空气质量持续改善行动计划，加强土壤污染源头防控。加 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the importance of quotas in the construction of the carbon market, with a clear timeline for the adjustment of quota distribution methods outlined in the recent policy document [1][2][3] - By 2030, a national carbon emissions trading market based on total quota control will be established, combining free and paid distribution methods [1][2] - The transition from intensity control to total control of carbon emissions is highlighted, addressing the limitations of the current intensity-based quota distribution method [1][2] Group 2 - The carbon market's management will cover over 60% of the national carbon emissions after the inclusion of new industries like steel and cement in 2024, making it a key player in achieving carbon reduction targets [2] - The gradual shift from free to paid quota distribution is necessary to enhance market liquidity and reduce excessive volatility, as evidenced by international experiences such as the EU carbon market [2] - The principle of "cost for carbon emissions and benefits for carbon reduction" is emphasized, with the flexibility to adjust paid quota distribution to stabilize market prices and guide reasonable price expectations [2][3] Group 3 - The policy document aims to ensure a balanced and fair quota distribution that encourages advanced companies while pressuring less proactive ones to reduce emissions [3] - Strict regulations and enhanced verification of carbon emissions data are necessary to ensure compliance and traceability of quota usage [3] - The implementation of the policy is expected to accelerate the transition to a market-driven carbon market, serving as a driving force for green transformation [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - On the raw material side, the Indonesian government's PNBP policy restricts the issuance, increasing the cost of nickel resource supply. However, the nickel - iron production capacity in Indonesia is accelerating its release, and the production has rebounded significantly. Recently, the nickel - iron price has dropped significantly, weakening the support of raw material costs. On the supply side, the production profit of steel mills has improved significantly compared to before. Due to the increase in steel prices and the relatively weak increase in raw material costs, it is expected that the steel mill production in August will increase. On the demand side, as the traditional off - season for downstream consumption is coming to an end, there is an optimistic expectation for the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season. Coupled with the favorable domestic fiscal investment policies, anti - involution measures are expected to improve the supply - demand pattern. The market's purchasing willingness has recovered, and the previously accumulated orders have been released. At the same time, the willingness of holders to sell is high, the domestic market maintains a destocking trend, and the spot premium remains stable. Technically, the position has decreased and the price has adjusted, with differences in long - short trading. Attention should be paid to the MA60 support. It is recommended to wait and see for the time being, or go long with a light position on dips [2] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the futures main contract for stainless steel is 12,870 yuan/ton, down 45 yuan; the spread between the 10 - 11 month contracts for stainless steel is - 75 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders for stainless steel is - 16,617 lots, down 871 lots; the position of the main contract for stainless steel is 128,344 lots, up 5,176 lots. The warehouse receipt quantity for stainless steel is 97,554 tons, down 734 tons [2] 3.2现货市场 - The price of 304/2B rolled cut - edge stainless steel in Wuxi is 13,700 yuan/ton, unchanged; the market price of scrap stainless steel 304 in Wuxi is 9,600 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of the SS main contract is 455 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan [2] 3.3上游情况 - The monthly electrolytic nickel production is 29,430 tons, up 1,120 tons; the total monthly nickel - iron production is 22,000 metal tons, down 200 metal tons. The monthly import volume of refined nickel and alloys is 38,234.02 tons, up 21,018.74 tons; the monthly import volume of nickel - iron is 835,900 tons, down 205,500 tons. The SMM1 nickel spot price is 121,450 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; the average price of nickel - iron (7 - 10%) nationwide is 955 yuan/nickel point, unchanged. The monthly chromium - iron production in China is 757,800 tons, down 26,900 tons [2] 3.4产业情况 - The monthly production of 300 - series stainless steel is 1.7379 million tons, up 39,800 tons; the weekly total inventory of 300 - series stainless steel is 577,400 tons, down 9,400 tons. The monthly export volume of stainless steel is 458,500 tons, down 29,500 tons [2] 3.5下游情况 - The cumulative monthly new housing construction area is 35.206 million square meters, up 4.84168 million square meters; the monthly output of excavators is 24,700 units, down 2,100 units. The monthly output of large and medium - sized tractors is 19,800 units, down 1,900 units; the monthly output of small tractors is 10,000 units, unchanged [2] 3.6行业消息 - The report by National Development and Reform Commission Director Zheng Shanjie pointed out to accelerate the stabilization of employment, enterprises, the market, and expectations, and promote the implementation of relevant measures; implement a more proactive fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy; continuously release domestic demand potential; further promote the in - depth integration of technological innovation and industrial innovation, unswervingly deepen reform and expand opening - up, continue to prevent and resolve key risks, comprehensively promote regional coordinated development and urban - rural integration, and promote green and low - carbon development through the comprehensive transformation of carbon emission dual - control, and take multiple measures to ensure and improve people's livelihood [2] - China's CPI in August decreased by 0.4% year - on - year, while the core CPI increased to 0.9%, and the year - on - year decline of PPI narrowed to 2.9%. The year - on - year increase of the core CPI in August has been expanding for the fourth consecutive month [2] - US inflation unexpectedly declined. The US PPI in August decreased by 0.1% month - on - month, turning negative for the first time in four months, and the year - on - year growth rate of 2.6% was lower than expected [2] 3.7重点关注 - There is no news today [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - Macroeconomic policies aim to strengthen the domestic market, with China's August CPI, core CPI, and PPI showing specific trends, and US inflation unexpectedly falling. Fundamentally, zinc ore imports and processing fees are rising, along with increased smelter profits and supply growth. Import losses are widening, reducing imported zinc inflows. On the demand side, downstream is at the end of the off - season, with stable and rising processing enterprise operating rates. Zinc prices are at a low level, downstream purchases on - demand, domestic social inventories are increasing, and overseas LME inventories are decreasing, supporting zinc prices. Technically, with decreasing positions and price fluctuations, it's recommended to wait and see or go long on dips [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai Zinc main contract is 22,250 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan; the 10 - 11 month contract spread is - 5 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan. The LME three - month zinc quote is 2,887.5 dollars/ton, up 20.5 dollars. The total Shanghai Zinc open interest is 222,719 lots, up 970 lots; the net position of the top 20 in Shanghai Zinc is - 6,229 lots, up 3,619 lots. Shanghai Zinc warehouse receipts are 44,925 tons, up 596 tons. The SHFE inventory is 87,032 tons, up 1,052 tons; the LME inventory is 50,825 tons, down 200 tons [3]. Spot Market - The SMM 0 zinc spot price is 22,180 yuan/ton, up 90 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous market 1 zinc spot price is 22,180 yuan/ton, up 260 yuan. The ZN main contract basis is - 70 yuan/ton, up 55 yuan; the LME zinc cash - 3 months spread is 23.01 dollars/ton, up 5.39 dollars. The Kunming 50% zinc concentrate arrival price is 16,860 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; the Shanghai 85% - 86% broken zinc price is 15,600 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. Upstream Situation - The WBMS zinc supply - demand balance is - 124,700 tons, down 104,100 tons; the ILZSG zinc supply - demand balance is - 69,100 tons, up 10,400 tons. The ILZSG global zinc mine production is 1,007,500 tons, down 4,300 tons; domestic refined zinc production is 617,000 tons, down 11,000 tons. Zinc ore imports are 455,900 tons, up 124,900 tons [3]. Industry Situation - Refined zinc imports are 35,156.02 tons, down 22,615.39 tons; refined zinc exports are 483.88 tons, up 266.83 tons. Zinc social inventories are 140,100 tons, up 1,800 tons [3]. Downstream Situation - Galvanized sheet production is 2.32 million tons, down 130,000 tons; sales are 2.34 million tons, down 120,000 tons. The new housing construction area is 352.06 million square meters, up 48.4168 million square meters; the housing completion area is 250.34 million square meters, up 24.6739 million square meters. Automobile production is 2.51 million vehicles, down 298,600 vehicles; air - conditioner production is 19.6788 million units, up 3.4764 million units [3]. Option Market - The implied volatility of the at - the - money zinc call option is 13.01%, down 0.03%; the 20 - day historical volatility of the at - the - money zinc option is 6.16%. The implied volatility of the at - the - money zinc put option is 13.02%, down 0.02%; the 60 - day historical volatility of the at - the - money zinc option is 11.12%, down 0.04% [3]. Industry News - China aims to stabilize employment, enterprises, markets, and expectations, implement active fiscal and moderately loose monetary policies, and promote various aspects of development. China's August CPI, core CPI, and PPI show specific trends, and US inflation unexpectedly falls [3].