证券研究报告|行业定期报告 2025 年 11 月 23 日 证券研究报告 | 行业定期报告 2025 年 11 月 23 日 10 月用电量增速全面提升至 10.4%，创年内新高 环保公用事业行业周报（2025/11/23） 周期/环保及公用事业 本周环保与公用事业板块均有下跌。环保（申万）行业指数下跌 6.02%，公用 事业（申万）行业指数下跌 4.33%，相对市场整体跌幅较大。 推荐（维持） | | | 占比% | | --- | --- | --- | | 股票家数（只） | 242 | 4.7 | | 总市值（十亿元） | 3985.6 | 3.9 | | 流通市值（十亿元） | 3690.7 | 4.0 | 行业指数 % 1m 6m 12m 绝对表现 2.1 16.0 18.3 相对表现 5.4 2.2 6.7 资料来源：公司数据、招商证券 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 Nov/24 Mar/25 Jul/25 Oct/25 (%) 环保及公用事业 沪深300 相关报告 1 、《环保公用事业行业周报 （20251116）：火电发电量由降转增， 水电电量保持较高增长》2025-11-17 2 ...

Core Insights - The expansion roadmap for China's national carbon emissions trading market has been officially unveiled, with a clear timeline for including additional industries by 2027, aiming to cover approximately 75% of national CO2 emissions [1][4]. Summary by Sections Carbon Market Expansion - The Ministry of Ecology and Environment has released a quota distribution plan for the steel, cement, and aluminum smelting industries for 2024 and 2025, marking a significant step in the carbon market's expansion [1][4]. - By including these three industries, the total number of key emission units will reach around 3,700, covering emissions of approximately 8 billion tons, which accounts for over 60% of national carbon emissions [4]. Future Industry Inclusion - The final goal is to achieve full coverage of major emission industries in the industrial sector by 2027, with preliminary preparations already underway for the chemical, petrochemical, civil aviation, and paper industries [4][5]. - Predictions suggest that once eight major industries are fully included, over 8,000 enterprises will enter the market, covering more than 70% of greenhouse gas emissions nationwide [4]. Technical Preparations - The Ministry has collected and verified carbon emission data from relevant industries since 2013, laying the groundwork for scientifically determining total quotas [5]. - A comprehensive set of technical documents related to quota distribution, accounting, reporting, and verification is being expedited, alongside upgrades to the national carbon market management platform and trading systems [5]. Market Dynamics and Pricing - The diversity of market participants is expected to enhance the pricing function of the carbon market, with the current closing price around 66 yuan per ton [5]. - Industry experts predict that carbon prices could rise significantly, potentially reaching between 130 to 180 yuan per ton by 2027, driven by quota control and paid distribution mechanisms [5]. Industry-Specific Impacts - Different industries will experience varying impacts from the carbon market expansion, with sectors like electricity and steel being better prepared compared to more complex industries like petrochemicals and paper [6]. - The aviation sector faces additional challenges, including external pressures such as the EU carbon border tax [6]. Future Market Development - By 2030, the goal is to establish a carbon market based on total quota control, combining free and paid distribution, to create a reasonable carbon pricing mechanism [7]. - The Ministry has indicated that total quota control will be prioritized in stable emission sectors, gradually tightening quotas to enhance market efficiency and optimize carbon reduction resource allocation [7].

Core Viewpoint - Company reported strong performance in the first three quarters of 2025, with a significant increase in net profit driven by product competitiveness and strategic focus on high-end products [2][10]. Financial Performance - In the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved a net profit of 9.53 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 368.13% [2][10]. - The company's main revenue for the same period was 772.34 billion yuan, a decrease of 5.78% year-on-year [10]. - The third quarter alone saw a net profit of 2.96 billion yuan, up 255.06% year-on-year, despite a revenue decline of 2.25% [10]. Product Development and Strategy - The company is enhancing its "manufacturing + service" competitive advantage, focusing on R&D and technological innovation [2]. - Electric steel production is expected to increase by over 10% in 2025, with new products launched for high-efficiency transformers and applications in robotics and electric vehicles [3]. - The company is committed to developing high-end differentiated products, particularly in the medium-thick plate segment, to meet emerging industry demands [2][3]. Market Position and Competition - The automotive steel segment has seen steady improvement in competitiveness and production, with new product launches aimed at meeting customer needs [4][5]. - The company has established a three-tier marketing service support system to enhance customer satisfaction and service efficiency [5]. Future Investments and Capital Expenditure - Future capital expenditures will focus on production line upgrades, smart manufacturing projects, and energy-saving initiatives, with total investment controlled at half of depreciation and amortization [7]. - A new automotive plate production line is expected to be operational by 2027, enhancing the company's production capacity and flexibility [5]. Industry Trends and Carbon Emission Regulations - The steel industry is set to enter a carbon emissions trading market, which will initially provide a buffer period for companies to adapt [8][9]. - Long-term, the carbon market is expected to drive technological innovation and reduce emissions, with the company preparing by investing in low-carbon technologies and establishing a carbon management platform [9].

19日，记者从生态环境部获悉，《2024、2025年度全国碳排放权交易市场钢铁、水泥、铝冶炼行业配额 总量和分配方案》（以下简称《配额方案》）发布，对2024、2025年度碳排放配额发放、清缴和结转等 进行安排和部署。这意味着钢铁、水泥、铝冶炼行业的重点排放单位将于今年内完成首次配额清缴。 在《配额方案》发布后，生态环境部将下发钢铁、水泥、铝冶炼行业2024年度配额，重点排放单位将于 今年内完成首次配额清缴；明年上半年，将向这三个行业的重点排放单位下发2025年度预分配配额，相 关单位应在明年年底前完成2025年度配额清缴工作。 针对全国碳排放权交易市场下一步的扩围工作，上述负责人说，生态环境部已启动化工、石化、民航、 造纸等行业扩围前期准备工作，目前已组织相关单位研究起草化工、石化、民航、造纸行业的配额分配 方案、核算报告指南、核查技术指南等配套技术文件，为扩围工作做好技术保障；针对扩围工作需要， 从提升监管能力、提高数智化水平、保障数据安全等方面对全国碳市场管理平台、注册登记系统和交易 系统进行升级改造，提升基础设施平台的保障能力。 今年3月，钢铁、水泥、铝冶炼行业被纳入碳排放权交易市场管理，覆盖的温室气 ...

新浪财经ESG评级中心提供包括资讯、报告、培训、咨询等在内的14项ESG服务，助力上市 公司传播ESG理念，提升ESG可持续发展表现。点击查看【 ESG评级中心服务手册】 到2027年，碳排放权交易市场基本覆盖工业领域主要排放行业。 按照"全国碳排放权交易市场覆盖主要高排放行业"的要求，生态环境部已启动化工、石化、民航、造纸 等行业扩围前期准备，正加快编制"一揽子"技术文件。 生态环境部气候司有关负责人11月18日透露，为摸清化工、石化、民航、造纸等行业的排放情况，已对 2013年以来相关行业企业碳排放报告进行收集整理，相关数据经过核查，具备了针对性解决碳排放数据 质量问题的条件，为科学合理确定配额总量和分配方案奠定了基础。 上述负责人介绍，《配额方案》借鉴了发电行业积累的成功经验，延续了基于碳排放强度控制的免费配 额分配核心框架。企业的配额量与其实际产出量动态挂钩，不设绝对的碳排放总量上限，确保了行业发 展的必要空间。 "通过科学设定行业基准，总体上可以使单位产品碳排放越低的企业，其配额盈余率越高，从而形成明 确的减排激励机制。"这位负责人介绍，《配额方案》还体现了"抓大放小"的原则。在温室气体覆盖范 围上 ...

"中国在贝伦气候峰会期间，与欧盟、巴西共同发起成立'碳排放权交易市场开放联盟'，以进一步推动 碳市场领域国际交流与合作。"当地时间11月11日，在COP30中国角举办的"中国碳市场高质量发展与经 验分享"主题边会上，中国气候谈判代表团团长、生态环境部副部长李高表示。 根据巴西政府在COP30主办方网站及欧盟委员会发布的联合声明，作为COP30提出的核心创新举措之 一，"碳排放权交易市场开放联盟"（Open Coalition on Compliance Carbon Markets）宣布成立，成员还 包括英国、加拿大、智利、亚美尼亚、赞比亚、法国、墨西哥和德国等。该联盟旨在建立一个跨国合作 框架，协调各国碳定价机制、排放交易体系及相关政策，实现"互通、透明与可信"的全球合规碳市场网 络。 李高表示，面向未来，中国愿分享在碳市场制度设计、系统建设、运营管理等方面经验，与各方互学互 鉴，为通过市场化机制有效应对全球气候变化作出中国贡献。在中国碳市场建设方面，李高介绍，《联 合国气候变化框架公约》及其《巴黎协定》明确了公平、共同但有区别的责任及各自能力原则。碳市场 没有统一的标准模式，应根据各自实际，探索符合国情的 ...

到2027年，碳排放权交易市场基本覆盖工业领域主要排放行业 按照"全国碳排放权交易市场覆盖主要高排放行业"的要求，生态环境部已启动化工、石化、民航、造纸 等行业扩围前期准备，正加快编制"一揽子"技术文件。 生态环境部气候司有关负责人11月18日透露，为摸清化工、石化、民航、造纸等行业的排放情况，已对 2013年以来相关行业企业碳排放报告进行收集整理，相关数据经过核查，具备了针对性解决碳排放数据 质量问题的条件，为科学合理确定配额总量和分配方案奠定了基础。 此外，生态环境部已组织相关单位研究起草化工、石化、民航、造纸行业的配额分配方案、核算报告指 南、核查技术指南等配套技术文件，为扩围工作做好技术保障。针对扩围需要，还从提升监管能力、扩 大系统容量、提高数智化水平、保障数据安全等方面对全国碳市场管理平台、注册登记系统和交易系统 进行了升级改造，以提升基础设施平台的保障能力。 围上，聚焦于生产过程中的直接排放，即化石燃料燃烧、工业过程反应等产生的温室气体，不覆盖因外 购电力、热力导致的间接排放。 在配额分配范围上，锁定每个行业碳排放最集中的生产企业，包括高炉—转炉长流程钢铁生产企业、拥 有水泥熟料生产线企业和拥有 ...

在不久前举行的贝伦气候峰会上，中国与欧盟、巴西共同发起建立"碳排放权交易市场开放联盟"，以进 一步推动碳市场领域国际交流与合作。该联盟共包括11个经济体，旨在建立一个跨国合作框架，协调各 国碳定价机制、排放交易体系及相关政策，实现"互通、透明与可信"的全球合规碳市场网络。 "联盟参与方呈现鲜明特征：欧盟在碳治理领域起步早、经验丰富，拥有成熟技术与机制；中国，凭借 自主转型成果，在新能源产业、绿色金融发展方面都取得了积极的进展，在碳市场建设方面也初见成 效；巴西等发展中国家则面临治理资金短缺的现实困境。"中央财经大学绿色金融国际研究院首席经济 学家刘锋在接受记者采访时谈到，这几方的合作和经验交流很有价值。 兴业银行首席经济学家鲁政委也对记者表示，此次加入的11个经济体既包括传统碳市场强者，也涵盖了 新兴市场代表，如中国、智利与赞比亚。这一组合体现出发达与发展中国家在碳市场治理上的"桥接合 作"趋势，也将为新兴市场带来更多气候资金支持。 受访专家普遍认为，开放合规碳市场联盟将有助于统一协调全球碳定价机制的开展，通过标准协调、机 制互认、经验分享、技术合作、公正转型等多种措施，在统一框架下促进合规市场的衔接，确保合 ...

Group 1: Carbon Emission Trading Impact - The steel industry will transition to carbon emission intensity control from 2025 to 2026, linking quota distribution to corporate carbon emission levels [3] - By 2027, a tightening quota system will be established, enhancing carbon data quality and promoting technological innovation in the steel sector [3] - Inclusion in the national carbon market will improve transparency and reduce carbon tariff burdens for Chinese steel exports, enhancing international competitiveness [3] Group 2: Company Preparations for Carbon Reduction - The company is constructing a new electric furnace that aims to achieve over 70% carbon reduction in high-quality green steel production [4] - Research on advanced carbon reduction technologies has yielded positive results, including trials for hydrogen and biomass injection in blast furnaces [4] - Ten products have completed Environmental Product Declarations (EPD), establishing a low-carbon product system and proprietary low-carbon labeling [4] Group 3: Low-Carbon Electric Furnace Production - The electric furnace production line at Shougang's subsidiary is under construction, expected to be operational by 2026, with an annual carbon reduction of approximately 1.43 million tons [6] - The national carbon market will cover major industrial sectors by 2027, with a focus on reducing greenhouse gas emissions [6] - The establishment of a Green Manufacturing Committee and a Low-Carbon Management Center aims to enhance the company's low-carbon development capabilities [6] Group 4: Innovations in Electrical Steel Products - Shougang Zhixin has launched a series of ultra-high magnetic soft magnetic materials for humanoid robots, achieving a magnetic induction strength of 1.75T [7] - The new electrical steel products have shown a torque increase of 1.6% and a 27% reduction in iron loss compared to conventional materials [7] - These innovations have been validated by leading humanoid robot manufacturers, with one international company already placing bulk orders [7] Group 5: Automotive Steel Product Competitiveness - The company is focusing on lightweight demands in the electric vehicle sector by enhancing the development and promotion of high-strength and ultra-high-strength products [7] - To meet increasing quality demands for automotive exterior panels, the company is developing a comprehensive, multi-product solution to strengthen its competitive edge [7]

Group 1 - The national carbon emissions trading market in China has established a basic framework over the past four years, with stable and effective market operations, marking a new phase in its development [1][3] - As of October 28, 2025, a total of 760 million tons of carbon emission allowances have been traded, generating a transaction value of 51.44 billion yuan, indicating the gradual emergence of a price "guiding role" [1] - The steel, cement, and aluminum smelting industries are continuously being integrated into the national carbon emissions trading market, with approximately 1,500 new key emission units added, which will effectively manage over 60% of the national carbon emissions [1] Group 2 - The voluntary greenhouse gas emission reduction trading market in China has been operational since January of last year, with active trading of reduction volumes, demonstrating the market's role in incentivizing low-cost greenhouse gas reduction actions across various industries [5] - The capacity of market participants and awareness of low-carbon reduction have significantly improved, reflecting the effectiveness of the market mechanism [5] Group 3 - China aims to promote positive outcomes at the upcoming 30th United Nations Climate Change Conference, emphasizing that no country can remain isolated in the face of the climate crisis [6][7] - The country will adhere to the framework of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change and the Paris Agreement, advocating for the principle of "common but differentiated responsibilities" [9] - China calls for developed countries to fulfill their obligations regarding climate change while balancing negotiations on mitigation, adaptation, funding, technology, and capacity building [9]