加密货币登堂入室，比特币作为战略储备，稳定币法案出炉，特朗普和美国到底在搞什么？其他国家又 为何跟随？稳定币、比特币、迷因币都叫加密货币，却对应现实世界中不同的金融资产，各有什么不同 逻辑？形成合力又要达到怎样的目的？美国总统发横财割韭菜，甚至意图用加密货币对金融行业腾笼换 鸟，怎么做到的？ ...

你敢信吗？曾被视作野路子的加密货币，正靠着这四样东西，拆解美国金融的老规矩！曾经的双寡头格 局被打破，银行、巨头纷纷下场分蛋糕。连上市公司都把财库变币库，这操作真的稳吗？ 你敢信吗？现在连楼下咖啡店的老板都在念叨稳定币，隔壁工位的同事盯着加密公司的股价狂喜。加密 货币这股浪潮，早已不是极客圈的小打小闹，它正带着雷霆之势，狠狠撞进了美国金融市场的心脏！ 谁能想到，曾经被视作野路子的加密货币，居然能迎来立法的正名时刻！今年7月，特朗普签署的那部 稳定币法案，就像给这个躁动的市场投下了一颗定心丸，这可是加密领域头一回拿到国家层面的通行证 啊！ 要知道，稳定币这东西可不简单，它跟美元一对一挂钩，靠着现金和美债撑场面，说是区块链上的货币 基金也不为过。这下好了，银行、支付巨头们全都闻风而动，毕竟谁不想借着它降低交易成本、提速增 效呢？ 在那些通胀猛如虎的新兴市场，它更是成了老百姓对冲风险的宝贝。可转念一想，这热闹背后藏着多少 门道？银行的存款要是都流去了稳定币，放贷能力不就打了折扣？ 更别提加密平台想给稳定币付息的事儿，银行和加密圈各执一词，这监管的拉锯战，才刚刚开始！ 今年已有130多家美国上市公司筹了1370多亿美 ...

Group 1 - The company, Trina Solar (688599.SH), is involved in the formulation of the "Trusted Blockchain Entity Asset Trusted On-Chain Technology Specification" standard [1] - The company is closely monitoring the implementation of the stablecoin legislation and is actively engaging in financial innovation to promote its business development [1]

Group 1 - The U.S. national debt has surpassed $37 trillion, exceeding expectations by five years, with a current debt-to-GDP ratio of over 120% [1][3] - Trump's fiscal policies, including a significant spending bill, are projected to increase the deficit by $4.1 trillion over the next decade, averaging over $400 billion annually [3][4] - Foreign holders of U.S. debt, particularly Japan, the UK, and China, have increased their holdings, which helps alleviate debt pressure but poses risks if they decide to sell [5][7] Group 2 - Trump's tariff policies have led to increased foreign purchases of U.S. goods, but have also created tensions, particularly with countries buying Russian oil [7][10] - The Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions are influenced by rising debt levels and inflation data, with mixed opinions on whether to cut rates [4][8] - The recent regulatory changes regarding cryptocurrency by the Federal Reserve signal a trend towards easing regulations, which could impact the financial landscape [8][10]

Group 1 - Fundstrat has added Ethereum to its "Tech Seven Giants and Bitcoin" investment strategy, predicting it will be a major macro trade over the next 10-15 years, driven by Wall Street's migration to blockchain supported by the GENIUS act and SEC crypto projects [2] - Ethereum has risen over 40% since the beginning of the year, outperforming Bitcoin [2] - Fundstrat's Sean Farrell forecasts Ethereum could reach $10,000 by year-end, with potential highs of $12,000 to $15,000, indicating significant upside potential [2] Group 2 - Standard Chartered has raised its price forecast for Ethereum, expecting it to surpass its previous high of $4,866 by Q3 2025 and reach $7,500 by year-end, up from an earlier estimate of $4,000 [2] - The bank anticipates Ethereum prices will hit $12,000 in 2026, $18,000 in 2027, and $25,000 between 2028-2029 [2] - Despite bullish predictions, only 9% of fund managers currently hold cryptocurrencies, compared to 48% holding gold, indicating the early stage of crypto adoption [3] Group 3 - To gain exposure to Ethereum, it is suggested to hold Ethereum ETFs or purchase "Ethereum reserve stocks," which are analogous to Microstrategy's Bitcoin strategy [3] - The largest companies holding over 1.15 million Ethereum include Bitmine (BMNR), Sharplink Gaming (SBET), and Ethermachine (DYNX) [3] - The current market is viewed as a "least favored" V-shaped recovery, with Bitcoin seen as a leading indicator for a return to historical stock market highs [3]

Core Insights - The cryptocurrency market experiences cyclical bull markets approximately every four years, with Bitcoin (BTC) reaching a peak of $60,000 in 2021 before dropping to over $10,000, and is projected to return to $120,000 in the next cycle [1] - The proliferation of blockchain technology has led to various applications on public chains, with the previous bull market focusing on decentralized storage, NFTs, and the metaverse [1] - The current market is witnessing the introduction of stablecoin legislation, tokenization of real-world assets (RWA), decentralized finance (DeFi), and new concepts in decentralized exchanges (DEX) like Uniswap, indicating a shift towards more innovative financial solutions [1] - Over the past decade, the cryptocurrency market has transitioned from chaotic growth to more structured promotion, becoming increasingly integrated into everyday life [1] - The long-awaited approval of Bitcoin ETFs has reignited interest in the market, with prices starting from over $1,000 in April [1]

Core Insights - The roundtable discussion at Fudan University focused on the commercial opportunities of stablecoins, emphasizing the need for the Chinese yuan stablecoin to establish commercial scenarios to challenge the dominance of the US dollar [1][4]. Group 1: Motivations Behind US Stablecoin Legislation - The US aims to address its national debt crisis, with projections indicating that the stablecoin market could reach $3 trillion to $5 trillion in the next three to five years, generating a trillion-dollar demand for US Treasury bonds [4][5]. - The legislation is also a response to the internationalization of the Chinese yuan, as the US seeks to maintain its financial dominance amid China's efforts to promote de-dollarization through initiatives like the Belt and Road [4][5]. - The US intends to create a "global unified capital market," leveraging blockchain technology to allow the issuance of tokenized securities linked to high-quality global assets, thereby reinforcing the dollar's supremacy [5][6]. Group 2: Investment Opportunities in Stablecoins - Investment opportunities in the stablecoin sector are identified in distribution channels rather than merely obtaining licenses, with USDT and USDC serving as prime examples of market-driven demand [2][8]. - The rise of new payment companies and crypto-native banks is highlighted, with firms like Aave demonstrating significant lending capabilities with minimal personnel, showcasing the efficiency of blockchain-based financial services [2][10]. - The focus on real-world assets (RWA) is crucial, with a priority on money market funds and high-quality stocks to meet the evolving demands of stablecoin holders [12][13]. Group 3: Recommendations for the Development of Yuan Stablecoin - The development of the yuan stablecoin should prioritize commercial scenarios, particularly by encouraging the top ten global exchanges, many operated by Chinese individuals, to list cross-border yuan stablecoin trading pairs [14][15]. - Addressing the "last mile" liquidity issue in traditional trade is essential, as facilitating direct purchases of yuan stablecoins through local currencies can enhance market demand [15][16]. - The design flaw in China's central bank digital currency (CBDC) is noted, as its classification as M0 (cash) limits commercial incentives for payment acceptance, hindering the establishment of a robust network effect [16][17].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the U.S. fiat currency system is facing structural risks, with stablecoins being positioned as a key mechanism to rebuild the credibility of the dollar system [1][2] - Long-term industrial hollowing has led to a high dependence of the U.S. economy on global capital inflows, while rising inflation and interest rates have increased fiscal burdens, creating significant debt rollover pressure [1] - A large proportion of current U.S. fiscal revenue is allocated to servicing national debt interest, indicating a declining ability for fiscal self-balancing and increased volatility in dollar and U.S. Treasury asset values [1] Group 2 - The stablecoin legislation is viewed as a systematic response to the challenges faced by the dollar system, with stablecoins essentially being "dollar cash" on the blockchain, backed by compliant assets, primarily U.S. Treasuries [1] - This design transforms the demand for stablecoins in the blockchain market into real purchasing power for U.S. Treasuries, thereby introducing new external support for the imbalanced dollar credit system [1] - Recent global financial market recognition of the institutional logic behind stablecoin legislation has led to a balance in the buying and selling forces in the U.S. Treasury market, with significant recovery in U.S. stock and crypto asset prices [2]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The domestic copper smelter's maintenance capacity in July may decrease month - on - month, and the domestic electrolytic copper social inventory has begun to decline [1]. - The passage of the stablecoin - related bill in the US and the increased probability of the Fed's rate cut in September, along with disruptions in overseas copper mine production or transportation and a decline in domestic electrolytic copper social inventory, may lead to price adjustments in copper. It is recommended that investors wait and see, paying attention to specific support and pressure levels for different copper markets [3]. 3. Section Summaries Macro - The US House of Representatives passed a stablecoin - related bill and allowed pension funds to invest in assets such as gold and digital currencies. The import tariff pushed up commodity prices, and the US June consumer price index (CPI) annual rate increased. The initial jobless claims were 227,000, better than expected and the previous value. Due to the Trump administration's pressure on Powell for a rate cut, the probability of a Fed rate cut in September increased while that in December decreased [3]. Upstream - The Chinese copper concentrate import index rose compared to last week. The out - port (in - port, inventory) volume of copper concentrate at ports in the world (China) decreased (decreased, increased) last week. High - quality European scrap copper exports were restricted, and domestic importers could only buy copper scrap or brass. Concerns about Sino - US reciprocal tariffs led to low direct imports of US scrap copper. The price difference between domestic electrolytic copper and scrap copper reduced the economic viability of scrap copper. The opening of the copper import window and transit supplies from countries like Japan, South Korea, and Thailand may lead to a month - on - month decrease (increase) in domestic scrap copper production (import) in July, with a change in supply - demand expectations. Tight raw material supply made traders hold back goods. Some copper plants and smelters have suspended production due to supply shortages. Multiple domestic copper production projects may increase the domestic electrolytic copper production in July, while the closed import window may limit imports, leading to an increase in the bonded - area inventory, a decrease in the social inventory, and an increase in the futures exchange inventory. Some international traders are still transporting about 500 million tons of copper to US ports, increasing the COMEX copper inventory [3]. Downstream - The daily processing fee for refined copper rods for power and cable wrapping in East China increased compared to last week. New downstream orders decreased, leading to weaker demand. The capacity utilization rate of refined copper rods (recycled copper rods) increased (increased) compared to last week. The raw material (finished product) inventory of refined copper rod enterprises increased (decreased) compared to last week, while that of recycled copper rod enterprises decreased (increased). The capacity utilization rate of copper wire and cable increased, and the raw material (finished product) inventory of copper wire and cable enterprises increased (decreased). The order volume (capacity utilization rate) of copper cable wrapping decreased (decreased), and the inventory days of raw materials (finished products) for cable - wrapping enterprises decreased (decreased). The capacity utilization rate (production volume) of copper plate and strip increased (increased), and the inventory days of raw materials (finished products) for copper plate and strip enterprises decreased (decreased). The capacity utilization rate of copper pipes decreased, and the inventory days of raw materials (finished products) for copper pipe enterprises decreased. The capacity utilization rate of brass rods increased, and the inventory days of raw materials (finished products) for brass rod enterprises decreased. The easing of Sino - US reciprocal tariffs and the arrival of the traditional consumption off - season may lead to a month - on - month decline in the capacity utilization rate (production volume, import volume, export volume) of domestic steel enterprises in July. Specifically, the capacity utilization rate of some copper - related industries may decline, while that of copper foil may increase [3]. Market Data - For the Shanghai copper futures active contract on July 24, 2025: the closing price was 79,890, the trading volume was 161,652 lots, the open interest was 181,496 lots, the inventory was 16,183 tons, and the SMM 1 electrolytic copper average price was 79,795. The Shanghai copper basis or spot premium/discount and various spreads also had corresponding changes compared to previous days [2]. - For London copper on July 24, 2025: the LME3 July copper futures closing price (electronic trading) was 9,854.5, and there were changes in registration and cancellation of total warehouse - receipt inventory and contract spreads [2]. - For COMEX copper on July 24, 2025: the closing price of the active copper futures contract was 5.826, and the total inventory was 247,859 [2]. News Events - An accident occurred in the underground operation area of the Red Chris mine in Canada, leaving three workers trapped. Glencore has suspended the mine's operation. Glencore will close its Mount Isa copper mine in Queensland, Australia, next week, which was first announced in October 2023 [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The passage suggests that the approval of the US stablecoin - related bill, the expectation of Fed rate cuts, potential disruptions in overseas copper mine production or transportation, and the decline in domestic electrolytic copper social inventory may lead to a cautiously bullish trend in Shanghai copper prices. It advises investors to hold existing long positions cautiously and pay attention to support and resistance levels for Shanghai copper, London copper, and US copper [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Data - **Shanghai Copper Futures**: On July 22, 2025, the closing price of the active contract was 79,740 yuan, up 40 yuan from the previous day. The trading volume was 73,257 lots, down 6,755 lots. The open interest was 166,726 lots, up 29,109 lots. The inventory was 25,507 tons, down 2,670 tons. The average price of SMM 1 electrolytic copper was 79,755 yuan, up 200 yuan, and the spot - futures spread was 15 yuan, up 160 yuan [2]. - **Spot Premiums**: In different regions, the spot premiums of electrolytic copper showed various changes. For example, the Guangzhou spot premium was - 10 yuan, down 25 yuan; the North China spot premium was - 120 yuan, down 10 yuan; and the East China spot premium was 90 yuan, up 15 yuan [2]. - **London Copper**: On July 22, 2025, the LME 3 - month copper futures closing price (electronic trading) was 9,888 dollars, up 31 dollars. The total inventory of registered and cancelled warrants was 01 (presumably data error in the text), and the previous day's value was 124,850 tons [2]. - **COMEX Copper**: The closing price of the active copper futures contract on July 22, 2025, was 5.768 dollars, up 0.19 dollars. The total inventory was 243,781 tons, up 944 tons [2]. 3.2 Industry News - **Production Forecast**: Nornickel expects this year's copper production to be 343,000 tons, lower than the previous estimate. Anglo Asian Mining PLC's Denirli copper mine in the Fuzuli - Karabakh Economic Region has started production, with an expected output of 4,000 tons in 2025 and 15,000 tons after 2026 [2]. - **Export Outlook**: In June, the overall terminal demand was good. Although the export volume of some refined copper rod enterprises decreased, the demand in the Southeast Asian market remained stable, and the domestic deep - processing transfer demand increased. SMM expects the export volume of refined copper rod wires to recover in July [2]. 3.3 Macro - economic Situation The US Senate passed a stablecoin - related bill allowing pension funds to invest in assets like gold and digital currencies. The import tariff has pushed up commodity prices, leading to a slight increase in the inflation rate in US consumer prices in June. However, the US RPP annual rate in June was 2.3%, lower than expected and the previous value. The expectation of Powell's early departure and Fed rate cuts has increased, raising the probability of rate cuts in September or December [3]. 3.4 Investment Strategy - **Upstream**: The China copper concentrate import index is negative but rising compared to last week. The export (import, inventory) volume of copper concentrates at ports in the world (China) has decreased (decreased, increased) compared to last week. The production (import) volume of domestic scrap copper in July may change (decrease, increase). Some smelters have production issues, while others are starting new projects or expanding production, which may lead to an increase in the domestic production (import) volume of crude copper and electrolytic copper in July. The import window for electrolytic copper is closed, and the inventory in China's bonded area remains flat, while the social inventory has decreased, and the LME inventory has increased [5]. - **Downstream**: The daily processing fee for refined copper rods for power and cable wrapping in East China has increased compared to last week. The overall demand is still weak, but the capacity utilization rate of some copper - related industries has increased. However, due to factors such as the Sino - US tariff issue and the traditional off - season, the capacity utilization rate (production volume, import volume, export volume) of domestic steel enterprises in July may decline (decrease, decrease, decrease, increase). The domestic electrolytic copper holders are actively supporting prices, and the supply of deliverable trading brands is tight, while the price of non - standard trading brands is low [5].