Group 1 - The U.S. national debt has surpassed $37 trillion, exceeding expectations by five years, with a current debt-to-GDP ratio of over 120% [1][3] - Trump's fiscal policies, including a significant spending bill, are projected to increase the deficit by $4.1 trillion over the next decade, averaging over $400 billion annually [3][4] - Foreign holders of U.S. debt, particularly Japan, the UK, and China, have increased their holdings, which helps alleviate debt pressure but poses risks if they decide to sell [5][7] Group 2 - Trump's tariff policies have led to increased foreign purchases of U.S. goods, but have also created tensions, particularly with countries buying Russian oil [7][10] - The Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions are influenced by rising debt levels and inflation data, with mixed opinions on whether to cut rates [4][8] - The recent regulatory changes regarding cryptocurrency by the Federal Reserve signal a trend towards easing regulations, which could impact the financial landscape [8][10]

Group 1 - Fundstrat has added Ethereum to its "Tech Seven Giants and Bitcoin" investment strategy, predicting it will be a major macro trade over the next 10-15 years, driven by Wall Street's migration to blockchain supported by the GENIUS act and SEC crypto projects [2] - Ethereum has risen over 40% since the beginning of the year, outperforming Bitcoin [2] - Fundstrat's Sean Farrell forecasts Ethereum could reach $10,000 by year-end, with potential highs of $12,000 to $15,000, indicating significant upside potential [2] Group 2 - Standard Chartered has raised its price forecast for Ethereum, expecting it to surpass its previous high of $4,866 by Q3 2025 and reach $7,500 by year-end, up from an earlier estimate of $4,000 [2] - The bank anticipates Ethereum prices will hit $12,000 in 2026, $18,000 in 2027, and $25,000 between 2028-2029 [2] - Despite bullish predictions, only 9% of fund managers currently hold cryptocurrencies, compared to 48% holding gold, indicating the early stage of crypto adoption [3] Group 3 - To gain exposure to Ethereum, it is suggested to hold Ethereum ETFs or purchase "Ethereum reserve stocks," which are analogous to Microstrategy's Bitcoin strategy [3] - The largest companies holding over 1.15 million Ethereum include Bitmine (BMNR), Sharplink Gaming (SBET), and Ethermachine (DYNX) [3] - The current market is viewed as a "least favored" V-shaped recovery, with Bitcoin seen as a leading indicator for a return to historical stock market highs [3]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The domestic copper smelter's maintenance capacity in July may decrease month - on - month, and the domestic electrolytic copper social inventory has begun to decline [1]. - The passage of the stablecoin - related bill in the US and the increased probability of the Fed's rate cut in September, along with disruptions in overseas copper mine production or transportation and a decline in domestic electrolytic copper social inventory, may lead to price adjustments in copper. It is recommended that investors wait and see, paying attention to specific support and pressure levels for different copper markets [3]. 3. Section Summaries Macro - The US House of Representatives passed a stablecoin - related bill and allowed pension funds to invest in assets such as gold and digital currencies. The import tariff pushed up commodity prices, and the US June consumer price index (CPI) annual rate increased. The initial jobless claims were 227,000, better than expected and the previous value. Due to the Trump administration's pressure on Powell for a rate cut, the probability of a Fed rate cut in September increased while that in December decreased [3]. Upstream - The Chinese copper concentrate import index rose compared to last week. The out - port (in - port, inventory) volume of copper concentrate at ports in the world (China) decreased (decreased, increased) last week. High - quality European scrap copper exports were restricted, and domestic importers could only buy copper scrap or brass. Concerns about Sino - US reciprocal tariffs led to low direct imports of US scrap copper. The price difference between domestic electrolytic copper and scrap copper reduced the economic viability of scrap copper. The opening of the copper import window and transit supplies from countries like Japan, South Korea, and Thailand may lead to a month - on - month decrease (increase) in domestic scrap copper production (import) in July, with a change in supply - demand expectations. Tight raw material supply made traders hold back goods. Some copper plants and smelters have suspended production due to supply shortages. Multiple domestic copper production projects may increase the domestic electrolytic copper production in July, while the closed import window may limit imports, leading to an increase in the bonded - area inventory, a decrease in the social inventory, and an increase in the futures exchange inventory. Some international traders are still transporting about 500 million tons of copper to US ports, increasing the COMEX copper inventory [3]. Downstream - The daily processing fee for refined copper rods for power and cable wrapping in East China increased compared to last week. New downstream orders decreased, leading to weaker demand. The capacity utilization rate of refined copper rods (recycled copper rods) increased (increased) compared to last week. The raw material (finished product) inventory of refined copper rod enterprises increased (decreased) compared to last week, while that of recycled copper rod enterprises decreased (increased). The capacity utilization rate of copper wire and cable increased, and the raw material (finished product) inventory of copper wire and cable enterprises increased (decreased). The order volume (capacity utilization rate) of copper cable wrapping decreased (decreased), and the inventory days of raw materials (finished products) for cable - wrapping enterprises decreased (decreased). The capacity utilization rate (production volume) of copper plate and strip increased (increased), and the inventory days of raw materials (finished products) for copper plate and strip enterprises decreased (decreased). The capacity utilization rate of copper pipes decreased, and the inventory days of raw materials (finished products) for copper pipe enterprises decreased. The capacity utilization rate of brass rods increased, and the inventory days of raw materials (finished products) for brass rod enterprises decreased. The easing of Sino - US reciprocal tariffs and the arrival of the traditional consumption off - season may lead to a month - on - month decline in the capacity utilization rate (production volume, import volume, export volume) of domestic steel enterprises in July. Specifically, the capacity utilization rate of some copper - related industries may decline, while that of copper foil may increase [3]. Market Data - For the Shanghai copper futures active contract on July 24, 2025: the closing price was 79,890, the trading volume was 161,652 lots, the open interest was 181,496 lots, the inventory was 16,183 tons, and the SMM 1 electrolytic copper average price was 79,795. The Shanghai copper basis or spot premium/discount and various spreads also had corresponding changes compared to previous days [2]. - For London copper on July 24, 2025: the LME3 July copper futures closing price (electronic trading) was 9,854.5, and there were changes in registration and cancellation of total warehouse - receipt inventory and contract spreads [2]. - For COMEX copper on July 24, 2025: the closing price of the active copper futures contract was 5.826, and the total inventory was 247,859 [2]. News Events - An accident occurred in the underground operation area of the Red Chris mine in Canada, leaving three workers trapped. Glencore has suspended the mine's operation. Glencore will close its Mount Isa copper mine in Queensland, Australia, next week, which was first announced in October 2023 [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The passage suggests that the approval of the US stablecoin - related bill, the expectation of Fed rate cuts, potential disruptions in overseas copper mine production or transportation, and the decline in domestic electrolytic copper social inventory may lead to a cautiously bullish trend in Shanghai copper prices. It advises investors to hold existing long positions cautiously and pay attention to support and resistance levels for Shanghai copper, London copper, and US copper [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Data - **Shanghai Copper Futures**: On July 22, 2025, the closing price of the active contract was 79,740 yuan, up 40 yuan from the previous day. The trading volume was 73,257 lots, down 6,755 lots. The open interest was 166,726 lots, up 29,109 lots. The inventory was 25,507 tons, down 2,670 tons. The average price of SMM 1 electrolytic copper was 79,755 yuan, up 200 yuan, and the spot - futures spread was 15 yuan, up 160 yuan [2]. - **Spot Premiums**: In different regions, the spot premiums of electrolytic copper showed various changes. For example, the Guangzhou spot premium was - 10 yuan, down 25 yuan; the North China spot premium was - 120 yuan, down 10 yuan; and the East China spot premium was 90 yuan, up 15 yuan [2]. - **London Copper**: On July 22, 2025, the LME 3 - month copper futures closing price (electronic trading) was 9,888 dollars, up 31 dollars. The total inventory of registered and cancelled warrants was 01 (presumably data error in the text), and the previous day's value was 124,850 tons [2]. - **COMEX Copper**: The closing price of the active copper futures contract on July 22, 2025, was 5.768 dollars, up 0.19 dollars. The total inventory was 243,781 tons, up 944 tons [2]. 3.2 Industry News - **Production Forecast**: Nornickel expects this year's copper production to be 343,000 tons, lower than the previous estimate. Anglo Asian Mining PLC's Denirli copper mine in the Fuzuli - Karabakh Economic Region has started production, with an expected output of 4,000 tons in 2025 and 15,000 tons after 2026 [2]. - **Export Outlook**: In June, the overall terminal demand was good. Although the export volume of some refined copper rod enterprises decreased, the demand in the Southeast Asian market remained stable, and the domestic deep - processing transfer demand increased. SMM expects the export volume of refined copper rod wires to recover in July [2]. 3.3 Macro - economic Situation The US Senate passed a stablecoin - related bill allowing pension funds to invest in assets like gold and digital currencies. The import tariff has pushed up commodity prices, leading to a slight increase in the inflation rate in US consumer prices in June. However, the US RPP annual rate in June was 2.3%, lower than expected and the previous value. The expectation of Powell's early departure and Fed rate cuts has increased, raising the probability of rate cuts in September or December [3]. 3.4 Investment Strategy - **Upstream**: The China copper concentrate import index is negative but rising compared to last week. The export (import, inventory) volume of copper concentrates at ports in the world (China) has decreased (decreased, increased) compared to last week. The production (import) volume of domestic scrap copper in July may change (decrease, increase). Some smelters have production issues, while others are starting new projects or expanding production, which may lead to an increase in the domestic production (import) volume of crude copper and electrolytic copper in July. The import window for electrolytic copper is closed, and the inventory in China's bonded area remains flat, while the social inventory has decreased, and the LME inventory has increased [5]. - **Downstream**: The daily processing fee for refined copper rods for power and cable wrapping in East China has increased compared to last week. The overall demand is still weak, but the capacity utilization rate of some copper - related industries has increased. However, due to factors such as the Sino - US tariff issue and the traditional off - season, the capacity utilization rate (production volume, import volume, export volume) of domestic steel enterprises in July may decline (decrease, decrease, decrease, increase). The domestic electrolytic copper holders are actively supporting prices, and the supply of deliverable trading brands is tight, while the price of non - standard trading brands is low [5].

Group 1 - Trump's political ambitions are facing a triple threat from the Epstein incident, Federal Reserve dynamics, and health issues, leading to an unprecedented governance crisis [1][3] - The Epstein birthday letter controversy has turned from a political weapon against opponents to a liability for Trump, as he faces backlash from the media and public [3][4] - Trump's health issues have been publicly disclosed, revealing swelling in his legs and bruising on his hands, which has raised concerns about his fitness for office [4][5] Group 2 - The White House's rare admission of Trump's health problems disrupted his planned "victory week," which was intended to showcase legislative successes [5] - Tensions between Trump and Federal Reserve Chairman Powell have escalated, with Trump hinting at the possibility of firing Powell, causing market turmoil [5][7] - Trump's attempts to pressure Powell have been met with legal resistance, as Powell emphasized the importance of the Federal Reserve's independence for market stability [7][10] Group 3 - The relationship between Trump and Musk has soured, with Musk publicly criticizing the government's handling of the Epstein case, prompting Trump to review SpaceX contracts [7][10] - The recent "Big and Beautiful" bill passed by Trump's administration could lead to a projected $3 trillion increase in deficits over the next decade, drawing criticism from business leaders [8] - Contradictory actions by the Trump administration regarding China, including military aid to Taiwan and easing chip export controls, reflect a complex strategy in trade negotiations [8][10]

Group 1: Macro Environment - The recent passing of the US stablecoin bill in the House of Representatives is expected to strengthen the dollar's dominance in the global financial system and potentially alleviate the US debt crisis [2] - Domestic "anti-involution" policies are generating positive sentiment, which is spreading to other commodity futures, leading to significant increases in the black and building materials sectors [2] - The global oil market is currently experiencing strong supply and demand dynamics, with OPEC+ increasing production significantly [2][3] Group 2: Oil Market Dynamics - OPEC+ has agreed to increase daily production by 548,000 barrels in August, which is significantly higher than previous increases, potentially restoring the 2.2 million barrels per day cut announced earlier this year [2] - The Northern Hemisphere is in the summer oil consumption peak, with US commercial crude oil inventories dropping to 422 million barrels, a weekly decrease of 3.859 million barrels [3] - The US refinery utilization rate remains high at 93.9%, indicating strong demand for crude oil [3] Group 3: Asphalt Market Analysis - Domestic asphalt production is showing slight growth, with a total weekly output of 572,000 tons, a minor increase of 6,000 tons [5] - Despite an increase in asphalt supply, demand remains strong, with a significant weekly increase in shipments to 414,000 tons, up 40,000 tons [5] - Asphalt social inventory has decreased significantly, with a weekly drop of 4.1%, and a year-on-year decrease of 32.9% [5][6] Group 4: Overall Outlook - The overall market for asphalt is characterized by strong supply and demand, with a clear trend of inventory reduction [6] - The combination of a positive macro environment, improved oil supply-demand structure, and stronger asphalt demand than supply suggests that the asphalt futures market will maintain a bullish trend [6]

Market Overview - The U.S. stock market showed mixed results with the Dow Jones Industrial Average falling by 142.30 points, a decrease of 0.32%, while the Nasdaq rose by 10.01 points, an increase of 0.05% [1] - The S&P 500 index experienced a slight decline of 0.57 points, or 0.01% [1] - Over the week, the Dow Jones fell by 0.07%, while the Nasdaq and S&P 500 saw increases of 1.51% and 0.59% respectively [3] Economic Indicators - The University of Michigan's July consumer confidence index rose from 60.7 to 61.8, indicating improved consumer sentiment [5] - Consumers expect a 4.4% inflation rate over the next year, down from 5% the previous month, marking the lowest level since February [5] - The anticipated long-term inflation rate (5-10 years) is projected at 3.6%, the lowest in five months [5] Corporate Earnings and Performance - The earnings season is expected to reveal the impact of tariffs on company performance, with 81.4% of the 59 S&P 500 companies that have reported earnings exceeding Wall Street expectations [5] - Notable tech stocks showed mixed performance, with Tesla up 3.2%, Amazon up 1.0%, and Netflix down 5.2% despite reporting a revenue increase of 17.3% year-over-year [5][7] Sector Performance - Energy stocks led the decline, with Schlumberger down 3.9% and ExxonMobil down 3.5% following a legal setback in Chevron's acquisition of Hess [6] - Industrial giant 3M fell 3.7% as it indicated that tariff impacts would primarily be felt in the second half of the year [7] Chinese Stocks Performance - Chinese assets surged, with the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index rising by 0.6% and the three-times leveraged FTSE China ETF increasing by 3.83% [10] - Several Chinese stocks experienced significant gains, including Luoda Technology up over 33% and Xinyang up over 17% [10] Analyst Insights - Citigroup upgraded the ratings for Chinese and South Korean markets to "overweight," citing better-than-global performance despite macroeconomic volatility [11] - The bank anticipates a constructive medium-term outlook for Asian markets, predicting a 7% return for the MSCI Asia (excluding Japan) index by mid-2026 [11]

Core Viewpoint - President Trump stated that the stablecoin legislation represents a "massive" validation for cryptocurrencies, emphasizing that cryptocurrencies are beneficial for the dollar and the nation [1] Group 1: Stablecoins and Financial Technology - Stablecoins are described as a "revolution" in the fintech sector, indicating their potential to transform financial transactions [1] - The process of transferring money is noted to be costly and time-consuming, highlighting the inefficiencies in traditional financial systems [1] Group 2: Economic Implications - There is a strong stance against the decline of the dollar, suggesting that the government will not tolerate any depreciation of the currency [1]

Core Viewpoint - The stablecoin legislation proposed by President Trump is a significant recognition of cryptocurrencies [1] Group 1 - The stablecoin bill is seen as a major step towards the regulation and acceptance of cryptocurrencies in the financial system [1] - This legislation could pave the way for broader adoption of digital currencies by providing a regulatory framework [1] - The recognition of stablecoins may enhance investor confidence in the cryptocurrency market [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that President Trump considers the stablecoin legislation to be a "massive" validation for cryptocurrency [1] Group 2 - The stablecoin bill is seen as a significant step in the regulation of digital currencies, indicating a shift towards formal recognition and oversight [1]