1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view for the industry is "oscillating weakly" [5] 2. Core View of the Report - The report focuses on the analysis of the meal market, suggesting that the soybean meal market is affected by factors such as the recovery of Brazilian shipping and the expected increase in US soybean planting area, with a neutral - bearish outlook. Rapeseed meal is mainly influenced by short - term supply shortages and medium - term supply increases, following the soybean meal trend but weaker [5] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: Brazilian soybean shipping has basically returned to normal, with an expected shipment of about 10 million tons in March, alleviating supply concerns. The visit of the Brazilian agriculture minister to China and the Brazilian trucker strike are new uncertainties. Global soybean production is expected to be abundant, and the expected increase in the area of new US soybean crops will suppress price upside. Rapeseed meal has a short - term supply shortage but a medium - term supply increase [5] - **Demand**: Short - term soybean meal demand has rigid support due to a large breeding inventory, but the concern about shortages in April has eased, and long - term demand is expected to decline due to capacity reduction. Rapeseed meal is in the off - season of aquaculture, but there is an expected seasonal increase in demand from April to June, and the expanding spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal may divert some soybean meal demand [5] - **Inventory**: Domestic soybean oil mills' soybean and soybean meal inventories are currently high, but domestic soybean meal is expected to further reduce inventory in April. The national rapeseed meal inventory has increased weekly and is at a low level, supporting near - month prices [5] - **Basis/Spread**: The spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is widening, and the M05 - M09 spread is weakening. The M05 - M09 reverse spread is recommended [5] - **Profit**: The Brazilian CNF premium for soybean meal has risen, and the price has oscillated downward this week, leading to a decline in the crushing profit. The rapeseed meal crushing profit has increased this week [5] - **Valuation**: Soybean meal is at a relatively low historical valuation and is sensitive to positive factors. Rapeseed meal is at a relatively low price and has room for valuation repair [5] - **Macro and Policy**: The ongoing Middle East conflict has increased oil and global logistics costs, bringing risk premiums to agricultural products. The US biodiesel policy supports long - term US soybean demand. China has suspended the additional tariff on Canadian rapeseed meal. Attention should be paid to the impact of the Brazilian agriculture minister's visit to China and the Sino - US trade talks in April on soybean trade [5] - **Investment View**: The soybean meal market is expected to oscillate weakly. Short - term attention should be paid to international trade policy changes and US soybean planting area adjustments. For the spread, attention should be paid to the M05 - M09 reverse spread opportunity. Rapeseed meal mainly follows the soybean meal trend but is weaker [5] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading is expected to oscillate weakly, and the M05 - M09 reverse spread is recommended. Policy and weather should be monitored [5] 3.2 Meal Supply and Demand Fundamental Data - **Global Soybean Inventory - to - Consumption Ratio**: In March, the 25/26 global soybean inventory - to - consumption ratio was raised [30] - **Canadian Rapeseed Inventory - to - Consumption Ratio**: The March report shows a downward adjustment of the Canadian rapeseed inventory - to - consumption ratio [37] - **US Soybean Domestic Crushing Profit**: The crushing profit is at a high level [43] - **US Soybean Export Sales Progress**: The export sales progress is slow [51] - **Brazilian Soybean Harvest Rate**: The harvest rate is presented in the data [58] - **Soybean and Rapeseed Import and Inventory**: Data on soybean and rapeseed import volume, inventory, and related costs such as CNF premiums and import crushing profits are provided [60][62][66][68] - **Oil Mill Operation and Sales**: Data on the operation rate, crushing volume, sales volume, and consumption of oil mills are presented [76][78][86][90] - **Feed and Livestock Farming**: Data on feed production, livestock farming profits, and related market indicators are provided [97][99][107][113]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The prices of soybean meal and rapeseed meal are affected by multiple factors, with short - term trends being volatile and on the stronger side, but the upside space is subject to various constraints. Multiple factors such as geopolitical conflicts, cost support, and policy expectations drive the prices out of the previous trading range, and attention should be paid to changes in capital sentiment [4]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: For soybean meal, short - term is bullish, and medium - term is bearish. Brazil's slow soybean harvesting, shipping, and sales lead to a shift in selling pressure, and although the expected area of new US soybean crops increases, cost support is strong. For rapeseed meal, short - term is bullish, and medium - term is bearish. Short - term import of rapeseed is limited, and domestic inventory is low, but supply is expected to ease marginally after March [4]. - **Demand**: For soybean meal, short - term is neutral, and long - term is bearish. There is still rigid demand support due to a large breeding inventory base, but attention should be paid to the expected decline in long - term demand. For rapeseed meal, short - term is bearish, but there is a seasonal rebound expectation in aquaculture demand from April to June, and the expanding price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal may divert some soybean meal demand [4]. - **Inventory**: Soybean meal inventory in domestic ports and oil mills is still at a high level, and the physical inventory days of feed enterprises are decreasing. Rapeseed meal inventory in major regions has decreased weekly, and low inventory supports near - month prices [4]. - **Basis/Spread**: The price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is expanding. Market concerns about supply from March to April drive the 5 - 9 spread of soybean meal to strengthen. Rapeseed meal mainly follows the trend of soybean meal, and the expanding spot price difference is conducive to the consumption substitution of rapeseed meal [4]. - **Profit**: For soybean meal, short - term is bullish. Although costs have risen, soybean meal prices have increased, and crushing margins have improved. For rapeseed meal, it is neutral, and crushing margins have recovered this week [4]. - **Valuation**: Soybean meal is in the lower - middle range of historical valuations and is sensitive to positive factors. Rapeseed meal is at a relatively low level, and there is room for valuation repair [4]. - **Macro and Policy**: Bullish. The Middle East conflict has pushed up oil and global logistics costs, bringing risk premiums to agricultural products. US biodiesel policy expectations support US soybean demand. Sino - Canadian trade relations have eased, and China has suspended the additional tariff on Canadian rapeseed meal [4]. - **Investment Views**: Both soybean meal and rapeseed meal are expected to be volatile and on the stronger side in the short term. However, the upside space of rapeseed meal may be limited. Attention can be paid to the price difference arbitrage opportunities between soybean meal and rapeseed meal. It is recommended to operate cautiously and guard against high - volatility risks [4]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading is expected to be volatile and on the stronger side, and operate cautiously. For arbitrage, stay on the sidelines. Pay attention to policies and weather [4]. 3.2 Fundamental Supply - Demand Data of Meal Products - **Global Soybean and Rapeseed Inventory - to - Consumption Ratios**: In March, the global soybean inventory - to - consumption ratio for the 25/26 period was raised. The Canadian rapeseed inventory - to - consumption ratio was lowered [31][39]. - **US Soybean Situation**: US soybean domestic crushing margins are at a high level, but export sales progress is slow [45][54]. - **Brazilian Soybean Situation**: The Brazilian soybean harvesting rate is shown in the report, and there are also data on soybean CNF premiums and import soybean gross margins [61][63]. - **Domestic Situation**: Domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are at a high level, and feed enterprise inventories are declining. There are also data on domestic rapeseed and rapeseed meal imports, inventory, oil mill operating rates, and crushing volumes [73][86]. - **Feed and Livestock Farming**: The cost - performance of soybean meal has declined. There are data on feed monthly output, livestock and poultry farming profits, and production capacity [94][100].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall price of US soybeans is expected to fluctuate at a high level, with limited room for further increase and decline. Domestic soybean meal is mainly bearish, while rapeseed meal is expected to be strong, and the spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal will narrow [6]. - The trading strategy suggests a bearish approach for single - side trading, narrowing the MRM09 spread for arbitrage, and using seagull put options [7]. Group 3: Summary of Each Section 1. Market Review - The US soybean market is running strongly due to optimistic export prospects, strong domestic demand, and reduced South American production. The domestic soybean meal market is in high - level shock, and the rapeseed meal market is rising. The inter - month spreads of soybean meal follow the single - side trend, while those of rapeseed meal fluctuate slightly [3]. 2. Fundamental Analysis - **International Market**: The US soybean carry - over inventory remains at about 350 million bushels, with general export inspection data and a relatively loose supply - demand situation. In South America, some institutions have lowered Brazil's soybean yield, but the overall yield is still high. Brazil's old - crop exports and crushing are good, while Argentina's old - crop demand is strong, but the new - crop yield has decreased [4]. - **Domestic Market**: The domestic soybean meal supply is gradually recovering, but the market demand is average. As of February 27, the soybean inventory increased by 8.83% week - on - week and 3.61% year - on - year, and the soybean meal inventory increased by 14.85% week - on - week and 43.64% year - on - year. The domestic rapeseed meal demand is average, the supply is still at a low level, and the inventory is relatively high [5]. 3. Logical Analysis - US soybeans are expected to fluctuate at a high level. The domestic soybean meal is bearish, and the rapeseed meal is expected to be strong. The spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal will narrow, and the inter - month spreads are expected to decline [6]. 4. Trading Strategy - **Single - side**: Bearish approach [7]. - **Arbitrage**: Narrow the MRM09 spread [7]. - **Options**: Seagull put options [7]. 5. Soybean Pressing Profit - The report provides the pressing profit data of Brazilian soybeans from April to August, including CNF, CBOT, contract, exchange rate, soybean meal price, soybean oil price, and pressing profit [8].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - The overall pressure on the domestic soybean meal market has increased due to the decline in cost and improvement in supply. Rapeseed meal is under downward pressure, mainly affected by the decline of soybean meal. The spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is expanding. The short - term spread of soybean meal and rapeseed meal shows a downward trend. The overall supply and demand of the international soybean market is relatively loose, and the price is under pressure. The domestic spot supply is tight, the market demand is good, and the price is supported. The trading strategy is mainly based on a bearish view, with the spread of MRM expanding and the option of selling a wide - straddle strategy [3][4][8][9] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Quotes - **Futures and Spot Prices**: The closing prices of most soybean meal and rapeseed meal futures contracts declined on February 9, 2026. The spot basis of soybean meal in some regions decreased, while in others it increased. The spreads between different contracts of soybean meal and rapeseed meal also changed. The spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal expanded, and the spreads between different months of soybean meal and rapeseed meal showed different trends [3] - **Soybean Pressing Profit**: The pressing profit of Brazilian soybeans varied by shipping date. For example, the pressing profit in April was 36.13 (disk) and 112.63 (spot), with a change of 9.03 compared to the previous day [10] 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - **International Market**: The U.S. soybean's carry - over stocks and quarterly grain inventory data are bearish. Although the export of U.S. soybeans has improved, the overall supply - demand is still loose. In South America, Brazil's new - crop soybeans are expected to be in a good harvest, and the export volume is expected to increase. Argentina's old - crop soybean production is large, and the pressure on export and pressing has improved [4] - **Domestic Market**: The domestic spot supply is tightening. The oil mill's operating rate has increased, but the overall quantity has decreased, and the提货量 has also decreased slightly. The inventory is declining. The market transaction has increased significantly, and the overall demand is good. The subsequent supply of rapeseed and rapeseed meal is uncertain, and the demand is average, so it is expected to be in a volatile state [7] 3.3 Logic Analysis - **U.S. Soybeans**: Driven by macro - factors, U.S. soybeans are running strongly in the short - term, but there is still long - term pressure. The uncertainty in the international market mainly comes from the weather. If the yield is affected, it may drive up the price [8] - **Domestic Market**: The subsequent arrival volume of domestic soybeans will gradually decrease, and the supply is uncertain. The spot has certain support, but the disk has fully reflected the positive factors, so there is still pressure. The rapeseed meal disk is also under downward pressure, mainly due to the increase in the subsequent arrival volume. The spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is expected to expand [8] 3.4 Trading Strategy - **Single - side**: Adopt a bearish strategy - **Arbitrage**: Expand the MRM spread - **Options**: Sell a wide - straddle strategy [9]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view on the meal sector is bearish, and the trading strategy for the single - side is weak and volatile, with an advice to wait and see for arbitrage [5] 2. Core View of the Report - The meal sector is in a low - level oscillation, and attention should be paid to the weather in South America. The short - term weather speculation in Argentina has weak sustainability and has not formed a reversal driver. As the Brazilian harvest progresses, the CNF premium in Brazil is expected to reflect the selling pressure of a bumper soybean harvest, and the M05 contract is expected to be under pressure [2][5] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: It is bearish. As of January 17, the Brazilian soybean harvest rate was 2.3% (last week: 0.6%, last year: 1.2%, five - year average: 3.2%); as of January 21, the Argentine soybean sowing progress was 96.2%, slightly behind last year. The proportion of soybeans in good condition was 53% (last week: 61%, last year: 26%). The expected soybean arrivals in China in January, February, and March are 613 million tons, 484 million tons, and 470 million tons respectively. The global rapeseed is expected to have a restorative increase in production in 2025/26, and after March, the imports of Canadian rapeseed and rapeseed meal are expected to increase [5] - **Demand**: It is neutral. In the short term, the high inventory of live pigs is expected to be maintained, and the reduction of production capacity is not obvious, which supports the rigid demand for soybean meal. However, under the expectation of production capacity adjustment and policy control, the feed demand for soybean meal in the far - month is expected to decrease. The trading volume of soybean meal is average, the提货 performance is normal, and the downstream trading volume of rapeseed meal has increased. The feed cost - effectiveness of soybean meal has decreased [5] - **Inventory**: It is bearish. The inventory of domestic soybeans and soybean meal is seasonally decreasing, but the current inventory is still at a high level. The inventory days of soybean meal in feed enterprises have increased, and the domestic rapeseed meal inventory is being depleted [5] - **Basis/Spread**: It is neutral, with a neutral basis [5] - **Profit**: It is bearish. The crushing profit of new - crop soybean purchases in China is good, and the crushing profit of Canadian rapeseed is also good [5] - **Valuation**: It is neutral. From the perspective of crushing profit, the futures price of soybean meal is at a relatively high valuation; from the perspective of absolute price, it is at a relatively low valuation [5] - **Macro and Policy**: No specific impact is mentioned [5] - **Investment View**: It is bearish. The short - term weather speculation in Argentina has weak sustainability and has not formed a reversal driver. As the Brazilian harvest progresses, the CNF premium in Brazil is expected to reflect the selling pressure of a bumper soybean harvest, and the M05 contract is expected to be under pressure [5] - **Trading Strategy**: The single - side strategy is weak and volatile, and attention should be paid to policies and weather. The arbitrage strategy is to wait and see [5] 3.2 Meal Supply and Demand Fundamental Data - **Inventory - to - Consumption Ratio**: In January, the inventory - to - consumption ratios of US soybeans and global soybeans in the 2025/26 season were raised, while the global rapeseed inventory - to - consumption ratio was lowered [29][35] - **Soybean Production and Sales**: The domestic soybean crushing profit in the US has increased, the soybean export sales progress is slow, the Brazilian soybean harvest rate is increasing, and the CNF premium of soybeans shows certain trends. The import volume of soybeans in China has certain monthly characteristics, and the inventory of domestic soybeans and soybean meal is at a high level, with a slight increase in the inventory of feed enterprises [45][54][61][71][76] - **Rapeseed and Rapeseed Meal**: The CFR price of Canadian rapeseed and the import crushing profit show certain trends. The import volume of domestic rapeseed and rapeseed meal has monthly characteristics, and the inventory of domestic rapeseed and rapeseed meal also shows corresponding changes [66][73][85] - **Meal Consumption**: The downstream procurement of soybean meal has ended, and the提货 performance is good. The trading volume and提货 volume of rapeseed meal in oil mills have certain trends. The feed production volume, livestock and poultry breeding profits, and livestock and poultry prices also show corresponding changes [80][93][97]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view on the meal sector is "oscillation" [4]. Core View of the Report - The meal sector is expected to trade in a range, and investors should pay attention to policy changes. The domestic resumption of imported soybean auctions brings the expectation of improved supply in the first quarter. The meal futures market is expected to be mainly oscillatory in the near term, influenced significantly by policy news. In the short term, investors are advised to focus on the adjustment of the January USDA Supply and Demand Report, the trend of Brazilian premiums, and changes in China - Canada trade policies [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Part One: Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: The supply factor is bullish. As of January 3, 2026, Brazil's 2025/26 soybean harvest rate was 0.1%, lower than last year and the five - year average. In Argentina, as of January 7, the sowing progress was 88.3% with a slowdown due to waterlogging. In January, domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are expected to decline rapidly. The estimated arrival volume of domestic soybeans in the first quarter of next year is 1.58 billion tons, but the commercial crushing volume is insufficient, with policy being a variable. Under the current China - Canada trade policy, the supply of imported rapeseed meal and rapeseed in China is expected to decrease, while the supply of Australian rapeseed is expected to increase [4]. - **Demand**: For soybean meal, demand is bullish; for rapeseed meal, it is bearish. Short - term high pig inventories support feed demand, but national policies may affect long - term supply. Downstream pre - holiday stocking of soybean meal is expected to be active due to concerns about soybean shortages and customs inspection delays in the first quarter of next year. Recently, the downstream trading of soybean meal has been normal with good提货 performance, while the downstream trading of rapeseed meal has been cautious [4]. - **Inventory**: Inventory is neutral. Domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are at a high level in the same period of history, with slow inventory depletion and large spot supply pressure. It is expected that inventories will decline rapidly in January. The number of days of soybean meal inventory in feed enterprises has increased, and domestic rapeseed meal inventory has been continuously decreasing [4]. - **Basis/Spread**: The basis is neutral [4]. - **Profit**: Profit is bearish. The new - crop soybean purchasing and crushing margins in China are good, and the crushing margins of Canadian rapeseed are also good [4]. - **Valuation**: Valuation is neutral. From the perspective of crushing margins, the futures price of soybean meal is over - valued; from the perspective of absolute price, it is under - valued [4]. - **Macro and Policy**: Macro and policy factors are bearish. China will auction 1.1396 million tons of imported soybeans on January 13, and investors should pay attention to the auction results. They should also focus on the visit of Canadian Prime Minister Carney to China next week [4]. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, the market is expected to oscillate, and risks related to policy and weather should be monitored. For arbitrage, it is advisable to wait and see [4]. Part Two: Fundamental Supply - Demand Data of Meal - **Inventory - to - Consumption Ratio**: In December, the inventory - to - consumption ratio of US soybeans remained unchanged in the 2025/26 season, while the global soybean inventory - to - consumption ratio increased. The global rapeseed inventory - to - consumption ratio also increased [31][38]. - **US Soybean**: The domestic crushing profit of US soybeans has declined, the NOPA soybean crushing volume and USDA monthly soybean crushing volume data are presented, and the export sales progress of US soybeans is slow [48][55][57]. - **Brazilian Soybean**: The planting progress chart of Brazilian soybeans is provided, and the CNF premium trend chart and import soybean futures margin of soybeans are presented [64][66]. - **Canadian Rapeseed**: The CFR price and import crushing profit of Canadian rapeseed are shown [69]. - **Domestic Market**: Domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are at a high level, and the inventories of feed enterprises are also high. The inventory of domestic imported rapeseed and rapeseed meal is presented. The operating rate and crushing volume of major domestic oil mills are shown. The trading volume and提货 volume of soybean meal and rapeseed meal of oil mills are provided. The price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal and the single - protein price ratio are given. The monthly feed production volume is presented. The pig and poultry breeding profits, prices, weights, and inventory data are also provided [78][84][94]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The overall supply pressure in the soybean market remains significant, and the price center of the soybean system is expected to shift downward. The domestic soybean meal and rapeseed meal markets are in a state of relatively loose supply and demand, and the upward space for prices is limited. It is recommended to adopt a wait - and - see strategy for unilateral trading and conduct M11 - 1 positive spreads for arbitrage. For options, sell a wide - straddle structure [3][7][9][10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - The U.S. soybean futures showed an obvious rebound due to macro - level improvement. The domestic soybean meal and rapeseed meal futures also rebounded, with soybean meal being less affected by market information and rapeseed meal showing a phased rebound after a deep decline. The inter - month spreads of soybean meal showed a rebound, while those of rapeseed meal had limited changes. Spot supply was relatively small, and transactions were mainly based on basis [2]. Fundamental Analysis International Market - For U.S. soybeans, the carry - over stock of the old crop increased slightly, and the new crop supply increased slightly. The price decline space is limited, but it may face downward pressure if exports are not boosted. South American old - crop soybeans are in a state of loose supply and demand, and Brazilian farmers' slow selling progress may put pressure on prices. The international soybean meal supply pressure is significant, with an expected increase in soybean crushing volume in major producing areas and only a slight increase in imports in major importing countries [3]. Domestic Market - The domestic soybean meal supply pressure has improved but remains relatively loose. As of October 17, the actual soybean crushing volume was 2.1662 million tons, the开机率 was 59.59%, the soybean inventory was 7.687 million tons (up 0.38% from last week and 27.49% year - on - year), and the soybean meal inventory was 0.9762 million tons (down 9.54% from last week and up 4.16% year - on - year). The rapeseed meal demand has weakened, the开机率 has decreased, and the supply pressure still exists. As of the week of October 17, the rapeseed crushing volume in coastal oil mills was 12,000 tons, the开机率 was 3.2%, the rapeseed inventory was 6,000 tons (down 12,000 tons from last week), and the rapeseed meal inventory was 7,800 tons (down 3,700 tons from last week) [7]. Macro - economic Analysis - Reports indicate that Sino - U.S. communication has reduced concerns about trade conflicts, but the Madrid negotiations did not provide clear information on soybeans. The market is still worried about supply uncertainty, and the upward space for the domestic soybean meal futures is limited as China's long - term demand for U.S. soybeans decreases [8]. Logical Analysis - The market showed a slight rebound with limited changes. New negative factors are scarce after previous negative factors were fully reflected. The overall supply pressure is significant due to the progress of U.S. soybean harvesting and the increase in Brazilian new - crop planting area, so the upward space for the futures is limited. The domestic soybean meal supply and demand are relatively loose, and the inventory is high. The rapeseed meal inventory is low, but demand is average, and prices may face pressure. The inter - month spreads of soybean meal are significantly affected by the macro - economy, while those of rapeseed meal are affected by supply uncertainty and may face downward pressure [9]. Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Wait and see. - Arbitrage: M11 - 1 positive spreads. - Options: Sell a wide - straddle structure [10][11].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view is "oscillation". The domestic soybean purchase and crushing profit has worsened. Due to the expected support of the comprehensive import cost of the US market and the premium, the downside space of the futures price is limited, and it will mainly fluctuate within a range. Later, focus on the changes in Sino - US policies [5]. 2. Core View of the Report - Multiple factors affect the supply, demand, inventory, etc. of the粕类 market. Supply - related factors show that the US soybean yield may decline, the domestic soybean supply in the fourth quarter is expected to be loose, the supply of imported rapeseed meal and rapeseed in China may shrink, and Australian rapeseed imports are expected to supplement the supply. Demand - related factors indicate that short - term feed demand is supported, but long - term demand may be affected. Inventory - related factors show that soybean inventory is at a high level, and rapeseed inventory is at a low level. Overall, the market is expected to fluctuate within a range, and attention should be paid to Sino - US policy changes [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Part One: Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: The outlook for soybean meal is bearish, while that for rapeseed meal is bullish. The US soybean good - to - excellent rate has dropped to 63%, and may continue to decline. Domestic soybean inventory is expected to start decreasing in October, but the supply in the fourth quarter is still expected to be loose. The supply of imported rapeseed meal and rapeseed in China is expected to shrink, but Australian rapeseed imports may supplement the supply in the fourth quarter [5]. - **Demand**: In the short term, it is bullish, while in the long term, it is bearish. The short - term high inventory of pig and poultry farming supports feed demand, but policies may affect long - term pig supply. The high cost - performance of soybean meal supports its demand, and the peak season of aquaculture supports rapeseed meal demand. The downstream spot trading volume of soybean meal has increased, while that of rapeseed meal is cautious [5]. - **Inventory**: The outlook for soybean meal is bearish, while that for rapeseed meal is bullish. Domestic soybean inventory has reached a high level, and soybean meal inventory in oil mills is rising but lower than last year. Feed enterprises' soybean meal inventory days are increasing. Domestic rapeseed inventory has declined to a low level, and rapeseed meal inventory is continuously decreasing but still at a high level compared to the same period in previous years [5]. - **Basis/Spread**: It is bearish, with the soybean meal basis being low [5]. - **Profit**: The outlook for soybean meal is bullish. The crushing profit of Brazilian soybeans has deteriorated, while that of Canadian rapeseed is good [5]. - **Valuation**: It is neutral, with the futures prices of soybean and rapeseed meal currently at a neutral valuation position [5]. - **Macro and Policy**: It is bullish. The leaders of China and the US had a phone call last Friday, but there was no substantial progress in agricultural trade negotiations. The National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs jointly held a meeting on the pig industry, emphasizing the tasks of controlling secondary fattening, weight, and reducing pig production capacity [5]. - **Investment View**: The market is expected to oscillate. Due to the deterioration of the domestic soybean purchase and crushing profit, the futures price is expected to be supported by the comprehensive import cost, and it will mainly fluctuate within a range. Later, focus on Sino - US policy changes [5]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, expect oscillation; for arbitrage, adopt a wait - and - see approach. Pay attention to policies and weather [5]. 3.2 Part Two: Fundamental Supply - and - Demand Data of Meal Products - **Inventory - Consumption Ratio**: In September, the inventory - consumption ratio of US soybeans in the 25/26 season increased, while the global soybean inventory - consumption ratio decreased. The inventory - consumption ratio of rapeseed increased [35][41]. - **Production and Yield**: The sowing rate and good - to - excellent rate of US soybeans are presented, and the US soybean domestic crushing profit has increased [50][54]. - **Crushing and Export**: The NOPA soybean crushing volume and USDA US soybean monthly crushing volume are provided. The US soybean export sales situation includes export net sales, cumulative export sales, and sales to China [61][64]. - **Import and Cost**: The import cost of soybeans includes CNF premium and import soybean futures gross profit. The price and crushing profit of Canadian rapeseed are also presented [71][74]. - **Inventory and Trading Volume**: Domestic soybean inventory is at a high level, and soybean meal inventory in oil mills is rising. The inventory of imported rapeseed and rapeseed meal is presented. The trading volume and pick - up volume of soybean meal and rapeseed meal are also provided [80][102][109]. - **Livestock and Poultry Farming**: The profit, price, weight, and inventory of pig, chicken, and egg - laying chicken farming are presented, which affect the demand for meal products [119][123][127][131].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The international soybean market has been performing strongly recently. The US soybean market is expected to have stronger support and may rise further if there is positive news. The South American market has limited short - term pressure, and the prices in Brazil and Argentina are generally firm [4]. - The domestic soybean meal spot market still faces significant pressure due to high soybean arrivals and high oil mill operating rates. The supply is expected to remain loose, and inventory pressure is likely to persist. The domestic rapeseed meal has risen significantly due to policy factors and is expected to remain strong if policies do not change much [4][5]. - The trading strategies include a bullish stance for single - sided trading, M11 - 1 calendar spread long, expanding the MRM05 spread, and buying call options [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - **International Market**: The US soybean futures market has been strong due to the bullish monthly supply - demand report. In South America, Brazil's soybean prices have risen slightly despite a small decline after the US soybean price increase. Argentina's soybean prices are also firm, and so are the prices of soybean meal and soybean oil in both countries [4]. - **Domestic Market**: The domestic soybean meal spot market has high pressure with abundant supply and limited demand improvement. The domestic rapeseed meal has increased significantly because of policy - related restrictions on Canadian rapeseed imports [4][5]. - **Trading Strategies**: Adopt a bullish single - sided trading approach, conduct M11 - 1 calendar spread long, expand the MRM05 spread, and buy call options [6]. 3.2 Core Logic Analysis - **US Soybeans**: The US soybean market has been strong due to the monthly supply - demand report. Although the yield per acre was raised, the planting area was significantly reduced, tightening the new - crop supply. The old - crop crush was also increased by 1 million bushels to 2.43 billion bushels, with high uncertainty. The US soybean may rebound in the short - term, and the support at the lower level is strong [9][11]. - **South American Markets**: In Brazil, soybean export prices have slightly declined, but the overall price has increased due to the US soybean price increase. The monthly supply - demand report slightly raised production, exports, and crush. The selling progress of farmers has improved, and the export target of 106 million tons is likely to be achieved. In Argentina, soybean prices are firm, and the pressure on exports has decreased [14]. - **Domestic Soybean Meal**: The domestic soybean meal futures market has been strong due to cost - side factors, but the spot market has high pressure. The oil mill operating rate has increased due to sufficient soybean supply, and the demand has changed little. The inventory remains high, and the futures spread is expected to weaken [17]. - **Domestic Rapeseed Meal**: The domestic rapeseed meal futures market has risen significantly due to the policy decision to impose a deposit on Canadian rapeseed imports after an anti - dumping investigation. The market may remain strong if imports from Canada are completely stopped [20]. 3.3 Fundamental Data Changes - **International Market**: The data shows the US soybean weekly sales, export inspections, monthly crush, and weekly crush profits. It also presents Brazil's monthly soybean exports and crush, Argentina's soybean exports and monthly crush, and foreign soybean basis prices [24][27][29]. - **Macro - factors**: Exchange rates such as USD/CNH, USD/BRL, and USD/ARS are involved, as well as international shipping freight rates. The freight rates from the US Gulf, Brazil, and Argentina to China have all decreased slightly [37][42]. - **Supply**: The data shows the import and weekly crush of soybeans and rapeseeds in China [48]. - **Demand**: The data shows the提货量 of soybean meal and rapeseed meal in China [51]. - **Inventory**: The data shows the inventory of soybeans, rapeseeds, soybean meal, and rapeseed + rapeseed meal in China [55].

Group 1: Report General Information - The report is a daily report on粕类 (bean meal and rapeseed meal) dated July 22, 2025, issued by the Commodity Research Institute of Galaxy Futures [2] Group 2: Market Performance Futures and Spot Market - Today, the US soybean futures showed a volatile trend with limited changes. The domestic bean meal futures continued to rise rapidly, while the rapeseed meal's rise slowed down. The domestic bean meal spot market remained relatively loose, and the rapeseed meal demand weakened [2][5] - For bean meal futures, the closing prices of contracts 01, 05, and 09 were 3104, 2760, and 3086 respectively, with changes of 17, 8, and 17. For rapeseed meal futures, the closing prices of contracts 01, 05, and 09 were 2437, 2377, and 2736 respectively, with changes of 22, 11, and 9 [2] - The spot basis, monthly spreads, and cross - variety futures spreads of bean meal and rapeseed meal all showed certain changes. For example, the 59 spread of bean meal was - 326 today, down 9 from yesterday, and the 91 spread of rapeseed meal was 299 today, down 13 from yesterday [2] Price Spreads - The spread between bean meal and rapeseed meal was 635 today, down 6 from yesterday; the spread between rapeseed meal and sunflower meal was - 29 today, up 3 from yesterday; the spread between bean meal and sunflower meal was 536 today, down 3 from yesterday [2] Group 3: Fundamental Analysis International Market - The new US soybean crop is generally bearish. As of the week ending July 20, the good - to - excellent rate of US soybeans was 68%, down from 70% the previous week. The US soybean old - crop export inspection volume for the week ending July 17 was 365,000 tons. The US soybean crushing data in June was good, with the NOPA - reported soybean crushing volume at 185.709 million bushels, a year - on - year increase of 5.76%, and the crushing profit rebounded [3] - Brazilian farmers' selling progress has accelerated but is still slow overall. Brazilian soybean crushing has improved recently, with the May soybean crushing volume continuing to rise month - on - month. The demand for bean meal and soybean oil is good, and the crushing profit has improved due to the rapid increase in soybean oil prices. However, crushing has limited impact on relieving supply pressure, and the demand improvement space is also limited. Brazil may still have room for export growth [3] - Argentina's domestic soybean crushing volume may improve slightly in the future as exports may decrease due to tariffs, but the current domestic crushing profit is average, so the improvement space is limited [3] Domestic Market - The domestic bean meal spot market remains loose. As of July 18, the actual soybean crushing volume of oil mills was 2.3055 million tons, the operation rate was 64.81%, the soybean inventory was 6.4224 million tons, down 152,500 tons (2.32%) from last week but up 310,400 tons (5.08%) year - on - year. The bean meal inventory was 998,400 tons, up 111,100 tons (12.66%) from last week but down 262,200 tons (20.8%) year - on - year [5] - The domestic rapeseed meal demand has been gradually weakening. The operation rate of oil mills has decreased, but the overall supply is sufficient, and the granular rapeseed meal inventory remains high. As of the week ending July 18, the rapeseed crushing volume of major coastal oil mills was 59,000 tons, the operation rate this week was 15.72%, the rapeseed inventory was 162,000 tons, up 16,000 tons from last week, and the rapeseed meal inventory was 12,000 tons, down 3,100 tons from last week [5] Group 4: Macro - analysis - The Sino - US negotiations in London have been completed, but the market lacks clear macro - guidance. The market is still worried about the uncertainty of future supply. Although the overall international trade situation has many uncertainties, the macro - disturbances are decreasing as the market stabilizes. China's long - term demand for US soybeans is still high, so the price is unlikely to drop significantly in the short term [6] Group 5: Logical Analysis - The domestic bean meal futures market continues to be strong, but the upward driving force is limited as the bullish factors from the US soybeans and cost side have decreased. The international market also lacks substantial bullish factors, and the US soybean's upward space is limited. The bean meal may face a certain downward pressure [7] - The fundamentals of rapeseed meal have changed little recently. The market focus is on the import of Australian rapeseed, which has great uncertainty in terms of import volume and price. The overall supply of rapeseed and rapeseed meal is relatively sufficient, and the demand is average, so the rapeseed meal market also faces pressure [7] - The monthly spreads of bean meal and rapeseed meal may face downward pressure, and the spread between bean meal and rapeseed meal will be volatile [7] Group 6: Trading Strategies - For unilateral trading, it is recommended to wait and see [8] - For arbitrage, it is recommended to reduce and exit the RM91 reverse arbitrage position [8] - For options trading, it is recommended to wait and see [8] Group 7: Soybean Pressing Profit - The report provides the soybean pressing profit data from different origins (Argentina and Brazil) and different shipping dates, including CNF, CBOT, contract, exchange rate, bean meal price, soybean oil price, and pressing profit. For example, the disk pressing profit of Argentine soybeans for October shipment is - 13.19 [9]