从策略应对角度来看，一方面，科技成长、中小盘、高景气等主线依然是私募关注的焦点；另一方面， 加仓操作以及维持高仓位运作，已成为了私募机构普遍执行的策略。值得注意的是，有私募机构提示， 目前场内资金换手率已经达到历史高位水平，市场短期波动幅度可能增大。 私募仓位重新回升 8月A股市场赚钱效应持续显现，正在推动包括私募在内的更多机构入场。 ● 本报记者 王辉 A股市场人气近期持续升温，私募机构正在积极布局。数据显示，超六成百亿级私募已接近满仓运作。 截至8月15日，百亿级股票私募平均仓位升至82.29%，较前一周大幅上涨8.16个百分点。 具体来看，截至8月15日，仓位在八成以上的百亿级私募占比达到61.97%，较前一周的37.16%大幅提升 24.81个百分点；仓位在五到八成的百亿级私募占比为32.39%，较前一周下降6.75个百分点；仓位在五 成以下的百亿级私募占比不足6%。这一数据清晰表明，头部私募的投资策略正在集体转向积极进攻。 融智投资FOF基金经理李春瑜分析，近期百亿级私募大幅加仓主要源于四方面因素：一是市场行情向 好，整体呈现相对稳定且持续上涨的趋势，为投资布局提供了良好环境；二是投资者情绪乐观，市 ...

上上证证创创十十年年新新高高，，牛牛回回速速归归还还是是落落袋袋为为安安？？ 22002255年年88月月1188日日--22002255年年88月月2222日日基基金金投投顾顾观观点点 本周A股续创年内新高，债市收跌，黄金震荡，美股回调。具体来看，本周市场有以下几个重 要方面 ： 01 本周A股市场无论是指数点位还是日均成交额，都续创年内新高。沪深两市日均成交金额已 经连续两周超过2万亿元，同时本周比上周还增加了4697亿元，市场情绪高涨，维持强势姿 态。申万一级行业上，通信、电子、综合涨幅居前，房地产、煤炭、医药生物涨幅靠后，本 周无下跌行业。恒生指数微涨，A股表现强于港股。 02 债市方面，本周资金面先紧后松，债市下跌，利率债和信用债均走弱，预计纯债基金收负。 资金面上，本周前半周适逢税期资金面较为紧张，后半周央行持续净投放资金转松。当前市 场情绪比较敏感，股市表现对债市投资者情绪影响较大。 03 商品方面，COMEX黄金本周继续走弱，周度收平，主要几方面因素影响：一是美联储官员 发言表示不急于降息，美元指数及美债利率上行，对金价形成压制；二是地缘政治方面有一 些乐观消息，美、俄、乌或有会面可能，避险情 ...

人民财讯8月19日电，银河证券研报称，供给端，近几年化工行业资本开支及在建产能增速趋于放缓， 但预计存量产能及在建产能仍需时间消化。需求端，下半年随政策刺激效果逐渐显现、终端产业回暖动 能逐步转强，内需潜力有望充分释放。看好下半年化工品的结构性机会及行业估值修复空间，建议关注 三条投资主线：一是，聚焦内需主线，把握成长确定性机会；二是，关注供给侧约束，探寻周期弹性机 会；三是，赋能新质生产力，新材料国产替代或提速。 ...

Core Insights - The private equity securities fund industry has shown strong performance in the first seven months of 2025, with an average return of 11.94% across 11,880 monitored private products, and 86.97% of these products achieving positive returns [1] - The stock strategy has led the five major private equity strategies with an average return of 14.50%, benefiting from the significant rise in small and mid-cap indices and various market drivers [1][2] - High enthusiasm for equity asset allocation persists among private equity institutions, with an average position level of 74.22% as of August 8, 2025, indicating a medium to high level of investment [3] Private Equity Performance - The stock strategy has emerged as the performance benchmark among private equity strategies, with 7,760 stock strategy products achieving an average return of 14.50% [1][2] - The top 5% of stock strategy products reported an impressive average return of 42.44% in the same period, highlighting the absolute return capability of leading products [1] Market Trends and Strategies - Private equity institutions are focusing on structural opportunities in the market, particularly in technology growth, consumer recovery, and policy-benefiting sectors [1][4] - The average position of large private equity firms is notably higher than the industry average, with 74.13% as of August 8, 2025, indicating strong confidence in market conditions [3] Sector Focus - Public equity funds also maintain high position levels, with an overall equity fund position of 93.21%, reflecting a focus on sectors such as electronics, pharmaceuticals, and automotive [3] - Investment strategies are shifting towards sectors with structural opportunities, including robotics, domestic computing power, AI applications, and industries benefiting from "anti-involution" policies [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the private equity market is experiencing a significant recovery, with over 90% of large private equity firms achieving positive returns this year, driven by structural market opportunities and increased capital inflow [1][2][3]. Group 2 - As of the end of July, the average return for large private equity firms with performance data is over 16%, with 98% of them reporting positive returns, indicating a strong performance trend [1][2]. - The number of large private equity firms has increased to 90, reflecting the expansion of the sector amid favorable market conditions [1]. - Quantitative strategies have outperformed subjective strategies, with quantitative private equity firms achieving an average return of 18.92% and a 100% positive return rate [2]. Group 3 - The private equity fundraising market has shown significant improvement, with 1,298 private equity securities investment funds registered in July, marking an 18% increase from the previous month [3]. - The top ten firms with the most new fund registrations in July are all large private equity firms, highlighting their attractiveness to investors [3]. Group 4 - Investor sentiment has improved significantly, with institutional investors increasing their participation and shifting their preferences towards long-only strategies, including subjective stock selection and quantitative strategies [4]. - Large private equity firms are maintaining aggressive positions and actively adjusting their portfolios to capitalize on structural opportunities [4]. Group 5 - Factors such as reduced global trade uncertainties and the effectiveness of China's economic restructuring are supporting the emergence of structural opportunities in the Chinese stock market [5]. - A large private equity firm maintains a high portfolio allocation of over 80%, focusing on sectors like technology, innovative pharmaceuticals, and non-bank financials, while also preparing for potential adjustments in response to market fluctuations [5].

导语："投资大家谈"是点拾投资的公益内容栏目，希望通过每周日不定期的推送，让更多人看到基金经 理对投资和市场的思考。"投资大家谈"栏目内容以公益类的分享为主，不带有基金产品的代码和信息， 也必须来自基金经理的内容创作。也欢迎大家给我们投稿：azhu830@yeah.net！ 近期市场热点多聚焦于"反内卷"与基建板块，但科技主线作为长期政策支持的核心方向，其产业叙事仍 在持续强化。AI、机器人等前沿科技领域进展不断，技术突破与产业落地预期支撑下，科技板块的配 置价值依然坚实。 长城科技投资领域的基金经理们将努力挖掘科技创新浪潮下的投资机遇，力争做好"有时代感的投资"， 陪伴投资者向"新"而行。 廖瀚博：关注高低切机会 展望后市，我们认为短期内市场或由上行转向震荡行情，将关注高低切换的机会，需要重视低位板块/ 个股的基本面变化或者预期变化。 陈良栋：挖掘AI细分支线机会 储雯玉：关注计算机、传媒、半导体等 赵凤飞：关注AI应用落地进展 由于前一段时间市场情绪较好，很多板块涨幅较大，叠加关税政策不确定因素，短期内市场可能会有所 调整。 当前重点关注AI应用方向，以及其它一些潜在机会。比如，科创板中与固态电池相关的方 ...

Report Overview - The report provides daily analysis and insights on various commodities and financial markets, including overseas and domestic macroeconomics, stock indices, and futures contracts for commodities such as coal, sugar, rubber, and agricultural products. 1. Macroeconomic Analysis Overseas Macro - Early in the week, market bets on Fed rate cuts declined, but the August 1st non - farm payrolls data raised concerns about US employment and economic downturn. Market expectations for Fed rate cuts in the second half of the year have increased, which is favorable for gold. In the long - term, the weak US dollar pattern continues [1]. Domestic Macro - In the context of stable and progressive domestic economic operation in the first half of the year, the tone of the July Politburo meeting was to improve the quality and speed of using existing policies, with relatively limited incremental policies. The July composite PMI remained above the critical point. Attention should be paid to the progress of negotiations between the US and economies such as China and Mexico [1]. 2. Asset Views Domestic Assets - Domestic assets present mainly structural opportunities. The policy - driven logic will be strengthened in the second half of the year, and the probability of incremental policy implementation is higher in the fourth quarter [1]. Overseas Assets - Concerns about US employment decline and economic slowdown are rising. The long - term weak US dollar pattern continues. Attention should be paid to non - US dollar assets and be vigilant against volatility spikes [1]. 3. Stock Index Analysis A - share Market - On August 6th, the three major A - share indices rose collectively. The Shanghai Composite Index reached a new closing high for the year, with a 0.45% increase to 3633.99 points; the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.64% to 11177.78 points; the ChiNext Index rose 0.66% to 2358.95 points. The trading volume of the two markets reached 1734.1 billion yuan, an increase of 138 billion yuan from the previous day [1]. CSI 300 Index - On August 6th, the CSI 300 Index remained strong, closing at 4113.48, a环比 increase of 10.04 [2]. 4. Commodity Futures Analysis Coke and Coking Coal - On August 6th, the coke weighted index showed a strong oscillation, closing at 1696.6, a环比 increase of 46.7. The coking coal weighted index maintained an upward - trending oscillation, closing at 1194.6 yuan, a环比 increase of 79.7. Some mines in Linfen have been shut down for rectification, and the supply of coking coal is difficult to increase significantly in the short term. The fifth round of coke price increases has been fully implemented, and the profitability of coke enterprises has improved [2][3]. Zhengzhou Sugar - International oil price decline and concerns about global demand weakness have pressured the US sugar market. Affected by the decline of US sugar and spot price adjustments, the Zhengzhou Sugar 2601 contract declined slightly on August 6th. As of July 31st, Yunnan's cumulative sugar sales reached 1.9514 million tons, with a sales rate of 80.68% [5]. Rubber - Due to large short - term gains, the Shanghai rubber futures oscillated and adjusted on August 6th. From January to June 2025, Hainan's natural rubber output was 91,900 tons, a 6.0% decrease compared to 2024 [6]. Soybean Meal - On August 6th, the international CBOT soybean futures closed down. The new - season soybean planting in Brazil is expected to expand, which will make the global soybean supply more abundant. The domestic soybean meal futures price showed a trend of rising and then falling. The domestic supply is sufficient, but there are concerns about future supply shortages, so the soybean meal may oscillate widely [7]. Live Pigs - On August 6th, live pig futures closed up. The short - term supply is sufficient, and the mid - term production capacity is still being released. The demand is weak due to high - temperature weather and reduced school procurement. The overall live pig market is in a state of loose supply and demand [8]. Palm Oil - On August 6th, palm oil futures failed to continue the previous day's strength. From August 1 - 5, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil production decreased by 17.27% compared to the same period last month [8]. Shanghai Copper - Globally, LME copper inventories are high, while SHFE inventories are low. US copper inventory may flow back, which may suppress prices. Technically, Shanghai copper is in a state of oscillation [10]. Cotton - On the night of August 6th, the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton closed at 13,660 yuan/ton. The cotton inventory in Xinjiang decreased by 90 lots compared to the previous day, and the cotton growth in Xinjiang is good, with the expected harvest time one week earlier than usual [10]. Logs - On August 6th, the 2509 log futures contract opened at 829, with a low of 826, a high of 836, and a close of 832.5, with a reduction of 370 lots. The spot prices in Shandong and Jiangsu remained unchanged. The increase in external quotes has driven up the domestic futures price [10][11]. Steel - On August 6th, the rb2510 contract closed at 3,234 yuan/ton, and the hc2510 contract closed at 3,451 yuan/ton. The sharp rise in coking coal futures has driven up steel prices. In the short term, steel prices may be strong, but there is a risk of correction if demand is insufficient [11]. Alumina - On August 6th, the ao2509 contract closed at 3,241 yuan/ton. The sentiment of "anti - involution" has cooled down. The supply of alumina has increased, and the market may maintain a range - bound oscillation [11]. Shanghai Aluminum - On August 6th, the al2509 contract closed at 20,650 yuan/ton. The macro environment is relatively cold, and the supply of aluminum is increasing slightly while the demand is shrinking. The aluminum price may oscillate within a range [12].

海通国际发布研报称，关注政策催化带来的结构性机会。7月，一方面消费需求继续承压，另一方面利 好政策频频出台。这些政策要么直接带动必选消费，如婴幼儿制品;要么通过增加人员就业和商务活动 间接带动。是对去年9月24日开始的新一轮刺激经济政策的补充和完善。因此，该行建议关注受益于政 策带动的行业，同时坚持"高股息+基本面改善"的原则。行业角度，关注乳制品和白酒，警惕软饮料边 际变差的风险。 海通国际主要观点如下： 价格 估值 7 月多数白酒批价回归平稳。飞天整箱、散瓶和茅台1935 批价为1915/1880/655 元，较上月-35/持平/-20 元，较去年同期-665/-500/-155 元。普五批价为930 元，较上月+10 元，较去年同期持平。经历6月大幅 调整后，7 月多数白酒批价微涨或持平，延续下跌的仅为少数。7 月液态奶、啤酒代表产品较上月折扣 力度有所减小，软饮料折扣力度加大，婴配粉、方便食品、调味品价格平稳。 7 月底食品饮料的PE 历史分位数为16%(20.2x)，较上月末持平。子行业分位数较低的是啤酒(3%， 23.8x)、白酒(11%，17.9x)等。A 股龙头公司的估值中位数为20x(较上月 ...

Core Viewpoint - The overall sentiment in the market remains optimistic despite recent fluctuations, with both public and private equity funds increasing their positions, indicating potential structural opportunities ahead [2][10][11]. Group 1: Fund Positioning - As of July 25, the average position of private equity funds was 75.85%, reflecting a slight increase of 0.76 percentage points from the previous week, while the average position for large-cap private equity funds rose significantly by 5.69 percentage points to 78.47% [4][6]. - Among large-cap private equity funds, 62.24% were at heavy or full positions (over 80%), and less than 10% had positions below 50% [4]. - Public equity funds also saw a modest increase in average positions, rising by 0.17 percentage points to 92.7%, with ordinary stock funds reaching 93.25% [7][8]. Group 2: Market Outlook - Private equity institutions generally perceive limited risks in market adjustments, maintaining a focus on structural opportunities [2][10]. - Starstone Investment noted that the A-share market's significant gains in July have led to internal sector differentiation, suggesting a potential "healthy correction" in the short term [11]. - The overall market risk is considered manageable, with expectations for further index growth due to strong demand for equity assets amid low-risk interest rates [11]. Group 3: Structural Opportunities - Investment firms are focusing on three main structural opportunities: the revaluation of quality Chinese assets, the globalization of advantageous industries, and investment opportunities arising from advancements in technology such as AI [12]. - The emphasis is on identifying industry leaders with strong competitive advantages in the technology sector, particularly those affected by short-term competitive pressures [11][12].

Group 1 - The Hong Kong stock market opened lower on August 4, with the Hang Seng Index down 0.31% at 24,431.88 points, the Hang Seng Tech Index down 0.66%, and the National Enterprises Index down 0.35% [1] - The technology sector saw mixed performance, while gold stocks collectively rose and Chinese brokerage stocks weakened [1] - The largest ETF tracking the Hang Seng Tech Index (513180) followed the index down, with leading stocks like BYD, Alibaba, Meituan, and Li Auto declining, while Honghua Semiconductor, Lenovo Group, and Xiaomi Group gained [1] Group 2 - Huatai Securities noted in its strategy report that the recent pullback in the Hong Kong market is primarily due to adjustments in internal and external expectations, but the medium-term liquidity easing logic remains unchanged [2] - The report emphasizes the need for investors to shift from previously high-concentration "high-cut low" strategies to replenishing positions in sectors with improving conditions and low valuations, particularly in the technology sector [2] - As of August 1, the latest valuation (PETTM) of the Hang Seng Tech Index ETF (513180) was 21.23 times, which is at the 18th percentile of its valuation since the index was launched on July 27, 2020, indicating that the current valuation is lower than 82% of the time since the index's inception [2]