格隆汇1月10日｜美国总统特朗普在官方经济报告发布前数小时，在社交媒体上提前发布了部分美国12 月就业数据，让交易员得以提前窥见这一对全球资本市场影响巨大的关键指标。 纽约时间周四(1月8日)晚上8:20，特朗普在社交平台Truth Social发布一张图表，内容包含尚未正式公布 的美国12月就业报告数据。该图表显示，自1月以来美国私人部门合计增加65.4万个工作岗位，政府部 门净减少18.1万个。数据与劳工统计局周五公布的数据完全吻合，比非农提前12个小时。白宫后来证实 了这次泄露。特朗普回应："他们给了我一些数据。他们给我，我就发。" 美国就业数据由劳工统计局发布，一向被视为最受严密保护的经济统计之一，对金融市场影响深远，为 交易员提供至关重要的信息，尤其是在规模达30万亿美元的美国国债市场中，这份报告往往会直接影响 市场定价。分析显示，历史上没有任何一次数据提前发布的情况能与此次相提并论。 据投资者透露，华尔街在前一晚基本错过了特朗普的这条帖子。一位宏观对冲基金组合经理表示，该帖 子周四晚首次发布时，"似乎根本没人注意到"。这位经理指出，尽管在特朗普第二任期初期，交易员 曾"几乎宗教式地"盯着他的账号， ...

北京时间周五(12月5日)亚盘时段，现货白银重启升势，截至发稿，白银价格暂报57.42美元/盎司，上涨 0.57%，尽管周三创下历史新高，但银价很快逆转了走势，周四白银价格暴跌逾2%，目前来看，现货白 银盘内短线偏上涨。 短期市场情绪还对强劲的美国经济数据及美联储官员言论敏感，后者淡化了激进降息预期。实际利率上 升会降低白银等无收益资产的吸引力，政策制定者的任何鹰派表态都可能延长短期压力。对活跃交易员 而言，即便长期基本面仍具支撑，短期市场也可能维持负面动能。 【最新白银行情解析】 日图来看，白银价格目前处于趋势线阻力下方震荡调整，多头动力减弱，但仍处于众多均线支撑上方， 看涨前景良好，虽有继续调整和回落风险，但也可视为再度的入场看涨机会，因而，下方关注各均线支 撑，进行低多看涨，白银走势下方关注56.45美元或55.70美元支撑；上方关注57.65美元或58.00美元阻 力。 美国国债市场周四下跌，结束了连续三天的上涨，10年期国债收益率上涨5.2个基点至4.108%，30年期 收益率上涨4.1个基点至4.766%，两年期收益率上涨4.5个基点至3.531%。这一抛售潮部分归因于劳动力 市场韧性的显现，略微 ...

华尔街主要债券投资者对白宫国家经济委员会（NEC）主席凯文·哈西特被任命为美联储主席的可能性提出了强烈担忧。他们警告美国财政部："如果哈 西特（唐纳德）按照特朗普的要求无理下调利率，美国国债市场可能会动摇，并发生大规模抛售。" 3日（当地时间），《金融时报》（FT）援引熟悉该事件的人士的话报道称，美国财政部为了听取对哈塞特和其他候选人的市场评价，与主要华尔街银 行、大型资产管理公司、美国债券市场的主要机构进行了一对一的非正式讨论。《金融时报》分析称，这种不安"反映了特朗普总统更换美联储主席给 市场带来的广泛紧张感"。 财政部接触的一些华尔街人士担心，哈西特一直与特朗普关系过于密切。特朗普总统曾露骨地批评美联储今年缓慢降息的基调，攻击美联储主席杰罗 姆·鲍威尔是"固执的骡子"。因此，有观测认为，哈塞特在通胀仍高于2%目标的情况下，仍可能主张无差别降息。 哈西特曾在约翰•麦凯恩、乔治•W•布什和米特•罗姆尼的竞选活动中担任高级经济顾问，在特朗普政府第一期担任白宫经济咨询委员会（CEA）主席。 曾在保守智库美国企业研究所（AEI）工作，也曾在美联储工作过。 另外，有消息称，美联储内部被评价为"有野心的人物"。前美联 ...

Group 1 - The price of silver futures is currently trading below 11,898, having opened at 12,065 and is down 2.65% as of the report, with a high of 12,145 and a low of 11,802 [1] - The short-term outlook for silver futures appears bearish, with significant resistance levels at 12,000-12,500 and support levels at 11,700-11,500 [2] Group 2 - Federal Reserve Governor Cook did not provide a clear stance on the interest rate path for December but indicated that the likelihood of a significant drop in asset prices, which are currently at historical highs, is increasing [2] - Cook emphasized the need to monitor unexpected losses in private credit due to the increasing complexity and interconnectivity of leveraged companies, which could impact the broader U.S. financial system [2] - The recent bankruptcies in the private sector of the automotive industry have revealed unexpected losses and exposures across various financial entities, including banks and hedge funds [2] - Cook expressed concerns about the expanding footprint of hedge funds in the U.S. Treasury market and the potential vulnerabilities associated with high asset valuations [2] - Despite the emerging vulnerabilities in the financial system, Cook stated that it remains resilient, although these vulnerabilities arise amid significant technological changes that may require careful consideration and prudent responses [2]

Core Insights - The U.S. debt has surpassed $37 trillion, and the U.S. Treasury market is increasingly viewing stablecoin issuers like Tether and Circle as key buyers [1] - The recently signed GENIUS Act establishes guidelines for the stablecoin industry, promoting explosive adoption of dollar-pegged digital tokens on Wall Street [1] - Analysts suggest that a well-regulated stablecoin market could solidify the dollar's dominance in the digital finance world [1] Stablecoin Market Dynamics - Stablecoin issuers are required to back their tokens with U.S. dollars or high-quality liquid assets on a one-to-one basis, positioning short-term Treasury bills as preferred collateral [1] - Tether and Circle dominate a $250 billion stablecoin market, which is projected to grow by 22% by 2025 [1] - Tether's USDT accounts for approximately 65% of the stablecoin market, while Circle's USDC holds about 25%, together representing 90% of the market share [1] Treasury Market Impact - Currently, stablecoin issuers hold about $125 billion in Treasury securities, which is less than 2% of the total outstanding Treasury debt of $6 trillion [3] - Predictions indicate that the stablecoin market could double to $500 billion by 2028, with estimates reaching $2 trillion and $4 trillion by 2030 and 2035, respectively [3][4] - The U.S. Treasury is increasingly relying on short-term Treasury bill issuance as traditional buyers like China and Japan reduce their purchases [3] Future Demand Projections - Tether is projected to become one of the largest buyers of U.S. Treasuries, potentially surpassing Japan by 2030 [4] - Stablecoins may significantly influence short-term yields, with a $3.5 billion inflow potentially lowering three-month Treasury yields by 2-2.5 basis points [4] - If stablecoin demand exceeds $1 trillion in the coming years, they will become a crucial factor for the Treasury in determining its debt issuance schedule [4] Economic Implications - The shift of funds into stablecoins may reduce bank deposits and lower reserve requirements, potentially impacting loan supply in the economy [5] - Despite concerns, industry participants believe that stablecoins will act as a meaningful accelerator for economic growth both in the U.S. and abroad [5]

Group 1 - The White House is promoting stablecoin legislation to boost the U.S. Treasury market and strengthen the dollar's position in trade settlements [1][2] - The proposed legislation requires stablecoin issuers to hold reserves exceeding one dollar for each coin issued, which must be backed by liquid assets like U.S. Treasury bonds [2][3] - The rise of stablecoins is expected to create new demand for U.S. Treasury bonds, potentially lowering short-term yields amid current selling pressures [2][3] Group 2 - Stablecoins aim to combine the efficiency of digital assets with the reliability of traditional currencies, reinforcing the dollar's dominance in the global monetary system [3][4] - The majority of stablecoins are pegged to the U.S. dollar, which may enhance dollar liquidity and demand, further solidifying its position [3][4] - Stablecoins could transform the international remittance market by offering near-zero transaction fees and instant settlements, thereby increasing the dollar's use in global trade [4][5] Group 3 - Despite the potential benefits, stablecoins cannot address the underlying issues of U.S. debt sustainability and the long-term decline of the dollar's share in global reserves [5] - The dollar's share in global foreign exchange reserves has decreased from 71% in 2000 to an estimated 57.8% by 2025, reflecting concerns over U.S. fiscal sustainability [5]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Treasury market is functioning well with appropriate liquidity [1] Group 1 - The liquidity in the U.S. Treasury market is deemed adequate [1]

Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve Chairman Powell indicates that the US dollar is expected to remain the reserve currency for an extended period, and the US Treasury market is functioning normally [1] Group 1 - The US dollar's status as a reserve currency is projected to persist for a long time [1] - The normal operation of the US Treasury market is highlighted [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that despite significant volatility, the U.S. Treasury market remains orderly according to the International Monetary Fund [1] Group 2 - The U.S. Treasury market has shown resilience amidst fluctuations, indicating a stable environment for investors [1] - The IMF's assessment highlights the importance of the U.S. Treasury market in the global financial system [1] - The orderly nature of the market suggests confidence among investors, which is crucial for maintaining liquidity and stability [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that tariffs may significantly hinder the development of the U.S. economy and weaken the labor market, as highlighted by St. Louis Fed President Musalem [1][3] - Musalem emphasized that even with recent tariff reductions between the U.S. and China, the potential negative impacts of tariffs on the U.S. economy remain substantial [3] - The increase in tariffs raises the prices of imported goods, leading to higher consumer costs and increased production costs for businesses reliant on imported materials, which could suppress economic activity [3] Group 2 - Musalem, as a voting member of the FOMC, believes that U.S. monetary policy is well-prepared to respond flexibly to any changes in economic outlook [4] - He stressed the importance of monitoring inflation expectations, indicating that maintaining public confidence in combating inflation is crucial for economic stability [4] - Atlanta Fed President Bostic noted that recent volatility in the U.S. Treasury market could exacerbate existing economic uncertainties, affecting market interest rates and borrowing costs [4][5] Group 3 - Bostic expressed satisfaction with the current policy stance, acknowledging that increased uncertainty may delay the normalization of U.S. monetary policy [5] - He cautioned that aggressive policy adjustments in a high-uncertainty environment could introduce more risks, hindering economic recovery [5]