（文章来源：新华财经） 丹斯克银行分析师指出，美国失业率上升尚不足以构成美联储明确降息的强有力信号，仍预计美联储12 月将按兵不动。 ...

中信证券研报称，2025年9月美国新增非农就业人数和失业率均超预期。两个核心指标出现分化，失业 率是相对"更实"的数据，新增就业后续可能还有修正，是相对"更虚"的数据，我们认为对美联储12月是 否降息来说失业率更为重要。保留两位小数，9月失业率升至4.44%，失业率连续三个月上升，美联储 在12月议息会议时难有理由证明10月和11月的失业率未升至4.5%或更高。另外，9月非农报告并非是12 月议息会议前关于美国就业市场最后的数据，就业市场走弱将继续体现在后续的经济数据中，且12月投 票的12位票委中鸽派仍占优势，我们延续此前观点，认为12月或是一次"close call"降息，幅度为 25bps。 ...

中新社华盛顿11月20日电 (记者 陈孟统)美国劳工部20日发布数据称，美国9月非农部门新增就业11.9万 人，失业率为4.4%。这份就业数据报告因政府停摆被推迟了近七周才发布。 美劳工部同时修正此前两月的就业数据：7月的非农新增就业人数由7.9万下调至7.2万；8月由新增2.2万 调整为减少4000人。7月和8月累计减少3.3万人。 美国劳工部20日还在声明中表示，由于联邦政府停摆造成的拨款中断，相关数据未被采集，也不会事后 补采，因此将不会发布10月份的非农就业数据，10月的部分数据将与11月就业报告一并在12月16日发 布。 美联储今年的最后一次货币政策会议将于12月9日至10日举行。这也意味着美联储的决策仍无法获得及 时的重要经济数据参考。 《华盛顿邮报》指出，尽管从许多指标来看，美国经济似乎依然稳健，但出现的压力迹象正在增多。招 聘速度放缓、消费者开始收缩支出、债务负担加重，而与此同时通胀又再度上升。现在经济学家担心， 由于秋季数据断档，未来几个月将更难识别潜在的经济风险。(完) 数据显示，美国9月份在医疗保健、餐饮业、社会援助行业的就业继续上升。运输与仓储业以及联邦政 府的就业下降。其中，9月医疗 ...

中新网11月10日电(记者 宫宏宇)据路透社报道，密西根大学一份调查显示，11月美国消费者信心指数从 10月的53.6降至50.3，为2022年6月以来最低水平，低于预测值53.2。不同政治立场的家庭都担心史上持 续时间最长的政府停摆对经济带来的负面影响。 路透社指，目前美国政府停摆已导致数以百万计的低收入家庭包括食品券在内的福利被削减。数十万联 邦工作人员被迫休假，其他人则在无薪工作。 调查：美国消费者信心降至近三年半最低 编辑：熊思怡 广告等商务合作，请点击这里 本文为转载内容，授权事宜请联系原著作权人 中新经纬版权所有，未经书面授权，任何单位及个人不得转载、摘编或以其它方式使用。 关注中新经纬微信公众号(微信搜索"中新经纬"或"jwview")，看更多精彩财经资讯。 路透社还提到，信心疲弱也反映出民众对劳动力市场的担忧。美国经济学家艾伦预测，未来一年面临失 业率上升的美国家庭比例已从10月的52%跃升至62%，为1980年以来最高。 纽约联储的一项调查也显示，受访者预计未来一年失业率将上升，并预计一旦失业将很难找到工作。 (完) 来源：中国新闻网 ...

Core Viewpoint - Prudential expects the Federal Reserve to implement two interest rate cuts within the next six months before a new administration takes over [1] Group 1: Interest Rate Expectations - Prudential's fixed income head, Kenneth Orchard, indicates that the market has a more aggressive outlook on the number of rate cuts, leading to expectations of higher short- and medium-term U.S. Treasury yields [1] - The Federal Reserve would need to lower rates to significantly below 3% to see a decline in the front and middle of the yield curve, as the market has already priced in multiple rate cuts [1] Group 2: Inflation Outlook - Prudential anticipates that U.S. inflation will not decrease, projecting it to remain between 3% and 3.5% over the next 12 months, contrary to market expectations of a decline [1] - There is a growing trend of U.S. Treasury bonds being held by price-sensitive investors, which may impact market dynamics [1] Group 3: Employment Situation - Although the U.S. unemployment rate has seen a mild increase recently, it does not indicate an impending recession, as maintaining approximately 40,000 jobs per month is sufficient to keep employment stable [1]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicated that the U.S. unemployment rate remains low but has slightly increased, while inflation has risen and is still at a slightly elevated level. Inflation risks are on the rise, and employment risks are on the decline. Most inflation expectation indicators are expected to align with the 2% target after next year. Price increases driven by tariffs are anticipated to continue this year and next [2]. - Powell emphasized that the Federal Reserve should observe the developments in tariffs, inflation, and the labor market before deciding to lower interest rates. The latest FOMC meeting minutes revealed that the Federal Reserve decided to lower the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to between 4.00% and 4.25%. This marks the first rate cut since December 2024 [3]. - When asked about the potential impact of White House economic advisor Stephen Milan joining the Federal Reserve on its independence, Powell stated that the Federal Reserve is "firmly committed" to maintaining its independence from political influence [2].

Group 1 - The initial response rate of the August non-farm survey rebounded significantly, but the trend of employment deterioration has not stopped, with private sector job additions contracting for four consecutive months [1] - The total non-farm job additions from May to August were only 107,000, which is below the average monthly growth of 127,000 in the first four months of 2025 [1] - The unemployment rate rose from 4.248% to 4.324%, primarily due to a slight recovery in labor force participation [3] Group 2 - The Kansas Fed President stated that there is no need to adjust interest rates, despite the region's employment situation being the worst in the country [6] - The employment situation in the manufacturing sector, sensitive to tariffs, has been declining, indicating potential further job losses in this area [8] - The U6 unemployment rate and the unemployment rate for African Americans have shown significant increases, highlighting structural vulnerabilities in the labor market [11] Group 3 - The combination of declining full-time employment, rising part-time employment, and increasing permanent unemployment has accumulated greater risks for a jump in the unemployment rate [7] - The labor market is facing structural issues, with young individuals lacking skills and experience struggling to find jobs, while undocumented immigrants are hesitant to work due to political climate [16] - The trend of rising unemployment is likely to continue, even if the U.S. economy does not enter a recession [16]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. labor market shows signs of weakness, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.3% in August, the highest in nearly four years, and non-farm payrolls increasing by only 22,000, significantly below expectations [1][1][1] Employment Data - The unemployment rate increased by 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, reaching 4.3% [1] - Non-farm employment growth was only 22,000 in August, a sharp decline from the revised 79,000 in July and well below the market expectation of 75,000 [1][1] - The report confirms a trend of weakness in the U.S. labor market, as evidenced by the rising unemployment rate and disappointing job growth figures [1][1][1] Revision of Previous Data - The non-farm payroll figures for May and June were also significantly revised downward, indicating a broader trend of labor market deterioration [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential for the Federal Reserve to initiate a small interest rate cut in September, influenced by rising inflation data and pressure from the White House, despite the current economic indicators not supporting a large-scale reduction [1][4]. Economic Indicators - The latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) for July shows a year-on-year increase of 2.7%, with the core CPI rising by 3.1%, indicating that inflation remains above the Fed's target of 2% [1]. - The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, which the Fed closely monitors, was reported at 2.6% for June, up from 2.4% and 2.2% in previous months, justifying the Fed's decision to maintain interest rates [2]. - The unemployment rate in July was stable at 4.2%, a significant decrease from the peak of 14.8% in April 2020, suggesting a recovery in the labor market [3]. Government Debt and Fiscal Concerns - The U.S. government is approaching a "technical default," with projections indicating that 30% of government revenue in fiscal year 2025 will be allocated to debt interest payments, exacerbating the fiscal deficit [4]. - The ongoing high-interest payments on national debt create a paradox with the Fed's high interest rates, leading to concerns about the sustainability of U.S. fiscal policy and potential market reactions [4]. Market Reactions - Since April, there has been a notable sell-off of ten-year U.S. Treasury bonds, reflecting growing market anxiety regarding the U.S. debt repayment crisis and the sustainability of government revenue [4].

Group 1 - The U.S. labor market is experiencing a significant slowdown, with July non-farm payrolls adding only 19,000 jobs, the lowest in nine months, and previous months' data revised down by 258,000 jobs [1][2] - The unemployment rate remains stable, with a slight increase of 0.1 percentage points in July, indicating that despite low job growth, the labor market is not in a state of crisis [3][4] - Labor force participation has been declining since May, with a total decrease of 0.5 percentage points year-on-year by July, reaching the lowest level since November 2022 [4][5] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve maintained interest rates at the end of July, but there were notable dissenting votes from two board members, highlighting internal divisions regarding monetary policy in light of the employment data [2][3] - The PCE price index showed a rebound, with a quarter-on-quarter increase of 2.1% in Q2, suggesting that inflation pressures are still present, albeit at a moderated level [5] - The quality of employment is declining as the actual number of employed individuals decreases, with long-term unemployment rising to 1.83 million, the highest level since 2017, excluding the pandemic [4][5]