Group 1 - The U.S. labor market is experiencing a significant slowdown, with July non-farm payrolls adding only 19,000 jobs, the lowest in nine months, and previous months' data revised down by 258,000 jobs [1][2] - The unemployment rate remains stable, with a slight increase of 0.1 percentage points in July, indicating that despite low job growth, the labor market is not in a state of crisis [3][4] - Labor force participation has been declining since May, with a total decrease of 0.5 percentage points year-on-year by July, reaching the lowest level since November 2022 [4][5] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve maintained interest rates at the end of July, but there were notable dissenting votes from two board members, highlighting internal divisions regarding monetary policy in light of the employment data [2][3] - The PCE price index showed a rebound, with a quarter-on-quarter increase of 2.1% in Q2, suggesting that inflation pressures are still present, albeit at a moderated level [5] - The quality of employment is declining as the actual number of employed individuals decreases, with long-term unemployment rising to 1.83 million, the highest level since 2017, excluding the pandemic [4][5]

Core Viewpoint - The current "moderately tight" monetary policy in the U.S. is deemed appropriate, allowing the Federal Reserve to observe economic trends and assess risks for potential policy adjustments [1] Economic Forecast - The economic impact of the Trump administration's increased import tariffs is just beginning to manifest, with inflation expected to rise by approximately 1 percentage point in the second half of the year and early next year [1] - The U.S. economic growth rate is projected to slow down to 1% this year [1] - The unemployment rate is anticipated to increase from the current 4.1% to 4.5% by the end of the year [1] - The inflation rate is expected to remain between 3% and 3.5% for the entire year [1]

Group 1 - The U.S. labor market shows short-term stickiness, with June non-farm payrolls increasing by 147,000, exceeding expectations of 106,000, and the unemployment rate falling to 4.1%, below the expected 4.3% and previous 4.2% [1][4][6] - Job creation is uneven, with private sector jobs increasing by 74,000, below the expected 100,000, while state and local government jobs added 80,000, and healthcare and leisure sectors contributed significantly to the total [5][6][8] - The transportation and warehousing sector saw an increase of 8,000 jobs, indicating active freight logistics, possibly linked to inventory replenishment in certain industries [5][6] Group 2 - The unemployment rate decreased from 4.24% to 4.12%, with the permanent unemployment rate also declining from 1.12% to 1.11% [2][6][7] - Initial jobless claims fell by 4,000 to 233,000, while continuing claims remained steady at 1.964 million, aligning with expectations [2][6] - The labor force participation rate decreased to 62.3%, indicating a potential decline in labor supply due to stricter immigration policies [8][9] Group 3 - Wage growth shows stickiness, with June hourly wages increasing by 3.7% year-on-year, slightly below the expected 3.8%, and a month-on-month increase of 0.2% [3][10] - The Index of Aggregate Payrolls Private for June showed a year-on-year increase of 4.5%, down from 4.9% previously, but still above the average of 4.8% for 2024 [10][11] - The overall wage growth supports consumer spending, particularly for lower-income groups, indicating resilience in the economy [10][11] Group 4 - The Federal Reserve is unlikely to cut interest rates in July, with a higher probability of a rate cut in September, influenced by strong employment data and market reactions to fiscal policies [11][12] - The market's concerns about economic hard landing and short-term rate cuts have significantly decreased, supporting risk assets [12][11] - The Fed Watch data indicates a 63.8% probability of a rate cut in September, down from 71.9% previously, reflecting market adjustments to recent economic data [11][12]

Core Points - The U.S. labor market remains stable with a non-farm employment increase of 147,000 in June, maintaining an unemployment rate of 4.1% [1][4] - Job growth is concentrated in state government and healthcare sectors, with state government adding 47,000 jobs and healthcare contributing 39,000 jobs [2] - Wage growth is moderate, with average hourly earnings rising by 0.2% to $36.30, while average weekly hours worked slightly decreased [3] Employment Trends - The state government sector saw significant job additions, particularly in education, which accounted for 40,000 of the new jobs [2] - The federal government continues to reduce its workforce, with a loss of 7,000 jobs in June and a total of 69,000 jobs cut since January [2] - Long-term unemployment is a growing concern, with 1.6 million individuals unemployed for 27 weeks or more, representing 23.3% of the total unemployed [4] Labor Market Dynamics - The labor force participation rate remains unchanged at 62.3%, with approximately 6 million individuals willing to work but not actively participating in the labor market [6] - The number of marginally attached workers has increased to 1.8 million, indicating a rise in individuals who are discouraged about job prospects [6] - Revisions to previous employment data show an upward adjustment, with April and May's non-farm employment figures increased by a total of 16,000 jobs [7]

随着特朗普不受掌控的议题开始增多 以及透支效应的展现，居民的消费意愿可能会进 一步收缩，非农的下行风险将被放大（乃至断崖式下降），未来美国经济可能并不会 出现先胀后滞的分阶段变化， 基准情形是经济系统性地缓慢走弱，而非某一个部门出 现明显裂痕。 文：国金宏观宋雪涛/联系人钟天 美国近期经济数据的边际变化远比不上资产价格的波动与宏观叙事的演变。关税通胀并未如期发生， 硬数据与软数据的背离也开始修复 ，但波动的相对收敛并不会带来经济走弱这一方向的改变。 毫无疑问，从研究的角度需要继续观察更多的数据来判断关税的微观机制。但正如我们在《 美国衰退 冲击开始共振 》中提到的 ， 众多非关税政策的负面冲击已经变得越发明显 。从洛杉矶的骚乱（非法 移民）到中东的动荡（能源、外交），再到特朗普亲口承认优质劳动力感受到越发明显的寒蝉效应（意 识形态），这些抑制美国经济增长的因素正更加具象化体现。 同时美国需求走弱或将主导未来关税定价的传导。整体来看， 关税通胀不及预期的概率正在进一步上 升 （《 被高估的美国关税通胀 》），供需两侧都存在涨价的限制 （油价会成为波动极大的变量） ， 未来美国经济很可能并不会出现先胀后滞的分阶段 ...

Group 1: Employment Data Overview - In May, the U.S. added 139,000 non-farm jobs, exceeding the expected 125,000, and aligning closely with the average monthly addition of 149,000 over the past year, while the unemployment rate remained stable at 4.2% [1] - The private sector contributed significantly to job growth, adding 140,000 jobs, with the service industry being the largest contributor, indicating a solid foundation for economic growth [2][3] - Average hourly earnings increased by 0.4% month-over-month and 3.9% year-over-year, surpassing market expectations, reflecting strong wage pressure in the labor market [2] Group 2: Impact of Tariffs on Employment - The manufacturing sector, particularly those sensitive to tariffs, saw a reduction of 8,000 jobs, marking the largest decline this year, signaling potential economic concerns [4] - The actual unemployment rate slightly increased, with approximately 71,000 more people unemployed in May, indicating a rise from 4.187% in April to 4.244% [4] - A notable decrease in labor supply was observed, with about 625,000 individuals leaving the labor market, contributing to a decline in the labor force participation rate [5] Group 3: Economic Outlook - The overall economic impact of tariffs is becoming evident, with a slow and mild growth deceleration trend expected to continue unless significant unexpected events occur [5] - The labor market remains relatively stable despite the challenges posed by tariffs, with the Federal Reserve focusing on the unemployment rate as a key indicator for economic health [3]

美国就业市场突传利好信号。 今晚，美国劳工统计局发布的数据显示，美国5月非农就业人口增加13.9万人，高于预期的12.6万人；美国5月失业率为 4.2%，符合市场预期。 有机构分析称，这是一份不错的就业报告，缓解了投资者对美国劳动力市场大幅放缓的担忧。鉴于贸易政策不确定性的背 景，美联储将对这份报告感到宽慰。受此影响，美元指数直线拉升，现涨0.51%。美股开盘后，三大指数亦集体走强，均 大涨超1%。 这份非农就业数据或许为美联储推迟降息提供了政策空间。在数据公布后，交易员缩减了对美联储降息的押注。根据 CME的数据，利率期货显示，今年有三次及以上25个基点的降息可能性从周四的36%下降至25%。一次或零次降息的可 能性从25%上升至34%。 美国5月非农数据出炉 北京时间6月6日晚间，美股三大指数集体高开高走，截至23:00，道指涨1.08%，纳指涨1.31%，标普500指数涨1.1%， 站上6000点大关，为2月26日以来首次。 美股大型科技股全线走强，特斯拉大涨超7%，谷歌涨超2%，英伟达、苹果、亚马逊、Meta均涨超1%。 消息面上，美国劳工统计局今晚披露了美国5月非农就业报告，其中显示，美国5月非农就 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights that the unemployment rate in the United States has increased, reaching its highest level since October 2021, indicating a potential trend of rising unemployment [1] Group 1 - The unemployment rate in May rose from 4.187% in April to 4.244% [1] - The highest unemployment rate recorded last year was 4.231% in November 2024 [1] - The current unemployment rate of 4.244% is the highest since October 2021, when it was 4.500% [1]

Core Viewpoint - The anticipated unemployment rate for the United States in May is expected to remain steady at 4.2%, according to multiple financial institutions [1]. Group 1: Institutional Predictions - ANZ Bank predicts an unemployment rate of 4.2% [1] - Societe Generale forecasts 4.2% [1] - Daiwa Capital also estimates 4.2% [1] - Bank of America projects 4.2% [1] - Montreal Bank anticipates 4.2% [1] - Goldman Sachs expects 4.2% [1] - HSBC forecasts 4.2% [1] - Capital Economics estimates 4.2% [1] - Deutsche Bank predicts 4.2% [1] - Empire State Bank anticipates 4.2% [1] - JPMorgan Chase expects 4.2% [1] - Moody's Analytics forecasts 4.2% [1] - ING predicts 4.2% [1] - Barclays Bank estimates 4.2% [1] - Commonwealth Bank of Australia anticipates 4.2% [1] - Nomura Securities forecasts 4.2% [1] - Oxford Economics estimates 4.2% [1] - Canadian Imperial Bank predicts 4.2% [1] - Danske Bank anticipates 4.2% [1] - Morgan Stanley expects 4.2% [1] - Rabobank forecasts 4.2% [1] - Scotiabank estimates 4.2% [1] - Société Générale anticipates 4.2% [1] - Lloyds Bank predicts 4.2% [1] - Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corporation estimates 4.2% [1] - Wells Fargo expects 4.2% [1] - Standard Chartered forecasts 4.2% [1] - TD Securities estimates 4.2% [1] - Westpac Banking Corporation anticipates 4.2% [1] - Citigroup predicts 4.3% [1] - Mizuho Securities estimates 4.3% [1] - Pantheon Macroeconomics forecasts 4.3% [1] - UBS Group predicts 4.3% [1] - Deutsche Bank estimates 4.3% [1]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. unemployment rate remains at historically low levels, indicating a strong labor market despite economic uncertainties [1] Group 1 - The Federal Reserve Governor, Christopher Waller, emphasized that the current unemployment rate is a sign of resilience in the U.S. economy [1] - The labor market's strength is crucial for economic stability and growth, as it supports consumer spending and overall economic activity [1] - Historical comparisons show that the current unemployment rate is significantly lower than levels seen during previous economic downturns [1]