比特币"雪崩"，价格一度跌破8.2万美元关口，较10月份创下的12.6万美元历史高位，跌幅超过30%。这 个幅度有可能会创下自2022年Terra稳定币崩盘引发行业连锁破产以来的最大单月跌幅。 暴跌的并非只有比特币。 第二大加密货币以太坊同步深度下挫，跌幅一度达8.9%，跌破2700美元。整个加密货币市场的总市值 自4月以来首次跌破3万亿美元大关。 崩盘的直接导火索，是高达近10亿美元的杠杆头寸在隔夜交易中被强制平仓。强制清算与ETF结构性抛 售的汇合，令市场陷入一种特别脆弱的状态。而任何试图稳定市场的努力，都会立刻被来自多个方向的 抛售压力所吞噬。 根据CoinGlass数据，永续期货的未平仓合约已较10月峰值下降了35%，表明投机者正在大规模撤离这个 危险地带。 老玩家离场。 上周五，美联储三巨头之一的约翰·威廉姆斯公开发表讲话，称"在不久的将来"降息可能是合理的。这 一被市场解读为"鸽派"的明确信号。威廉姆斯的表态之所以引发如此巨大反应，是因为它直接挑战了此 前多位美联储官员的"鹰派"立场，将美联储内部尖锐的矛盾公开化。 矛盾的根源，三大难解之题。 在政策立场上，鹰派认为股市繁荣代表资金充裕，鸽派则指出 ...

美联储降息路径再添变数。 这个周末，美联储再现"鹰派"言论。美东时间周六，美国波士顿联储主席苏珊·柯林斯在接受采访时表示，她 认为美联储没有在12月继续降息的必要，通胀方面存在风险，温和限制性的政策有助于确保通胀下降。 上天天基金APP搜索777注册即可领500元券包，优选基金10元起投！限量发放！先到先得！ 据CME"美联储观察"，截至发稿，美联储12月降息25个基点的概率为71%，维持利率不变的概率为 29%。美联储到明年1月累计降息25个基点的概率为58%，维持利率不变的概率为20%，累计降息50个 基点的概率为22%。有分析指出，目前来看，美联储内部分歧愈发严重，未来的降息路径仍存在较大的不 确定性。 美联储"鹰派"突袭 美东时间11月22日，美国波士顿联储主席苏珊·柯林斯表示，她认为美联储没有在12月继续降息的必要。 这番表态进一步凸显出美联储内部的分歧正在加剧。 作为今年具有投票权的美联储政策委员会成员之一，柯林斯当天在波士顿联储年度经济会议间隙接受采访时表 示，美联储自8月以来已经实施了两次幅度为25个基点的降息，使货币政策立场略微偏向于抑制通胀。 柯林斯指出，鉴于通胀率持续高于美联储2%的目标 ...

Group 1: Coin Crisis Impact - The decision to stop producing the 1-cent coin has led to significant disruptions in retail, with companies like Kwik Trip facing potential losses of up to $3 million annually due to rounding transactions to the nearest 5 cents [3] - The cost of producing a 5-cent coin is 13.8 cents, nearly four times that of the 1-cent coin, raising questions about the cost-saving rationale behind the policy [3] - The shortage of 1-cent coins has emerged sooner than expected, with banks ceasing supply in May 2025, leading to a rapid depletion of privately held coins [3] Group 2: Federal Reserve Division - A rare power struggle within the Federal Reserve has emerged, highlighted by a split vote on interest rate cuts, with some officials advocating for a 50 basis point cut while others oppose any reduction [5] - The internal conflict reflects broader concerns about inflation and the deteriorating job market, with officials divided on the best course of action [5][7] - The independence of the Federal Reserve is under pressure from the Trump administration, which has publicly criticized the Fed's pace of rate cuts [7] Group 3: National Debt Concerns - The U.S. national debt has surpassed $38 trillion, equating to approximately $280,000 per household, with a rapid increase from $37 trillion to $38 trillion occurring in just two months [9] - Interest payments on the national debt are projected to consume about $1.4 trillion in 2025, representing 26.5% of federal revenue, exceeding military spending [9] - Concerns about a potential "debt reckoning" are growing, with market actions reflecting fears of rising deficits and oversupply of government bonds [9] Group 4: Interconnected Crises - The issues surrounding the 1-cent coin, the Federal Reserve's internal divisions, and the national debt are interconnected, reflecting the government's urgent need to cut short-term fiscal costs [11] - The Trump administration's reliance on tariff revenues to offset deficits has proven insufficient, as increased medical spending has outpaced tariff income [11] - Rising credit card default rates and financial strain on consumers indicate broader economic challenges, exacerbated by the ongoing crises [11]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Oil prices are under long - term pressure from the narrative of large supply. As the Fed's internal differences increase, market concerns about the future employment market and economy remain, and the atmosphere in the crude oil market is still weak after the interest rate cut. Attention should be paid to the progress of the Russia - Ukraine peace talks and all factors that can affect Russian oil supply [8]. - The EIA data this week is bearish from a forward - looking perspective, mainly due to the poor performance of distillates (the main product in autumn and winter demand) and the fact that US refineries are gradually entering the autumn maintenance period [21]. - The three major energy institutions (IEA, OPEC, EIA) did not significantly adjust the demand side in their September reports, but IEA and EIA have significantly increased the supply forecast for three consecutive months, and EIA expects Brent crude oil prices to fall significantly in the next few months [22]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Weekly Views - Last week's view: Crude oil is under long - term pressure from large supply. As supply increases and autumn maintenance deepens, the supply - demand imbalance will become more significant, and oil prices will be under pressure. Attention should be paid to the Fed meeting, and short - term interference factors are mainly from the Middle East geopolitical situation and potential sanctions against Russia [8]. - This week's price trend: Oil prices rose first and then fell. The rise was mainly due to Ukraine's attack on Russian energy facilities, but the latter half of the week saw a decline due to the bearish EIA weekly report and the Fed's interest rate cut [8]. - This week's main views: Fundamentally, the downward trend of the monthly spread has slowed slightly, and cracking is relatively resilient. The US is gradually entering the autumn maintenance period, and distillate demand is poor. The Fed cut interest rates by 25BP as expected, but internal differences increased. Trump said there would be good news soon, and attention should be paid to geopolitical developments [8]. 3.2 Weekly Key Points - **Global near - month spread**: The near - month spreads of Brent and WTI in the world's major markets slightly rebounded this week, but the long - term trend is still downward, indicating a slowdown in spot supply and demand [12]. - **Cracking trend**: Global refined oil spot prices are still supported. Relatively speaking, the cracking trend of US spot is slightly weaker, while that of Northwest Europe and Singapore is stronger. Although terminal demand is okay, the supply increase is greater, resulting in a weaker near - end spread [14][15]. - **Fundamental quantitative indicators**: The current comprehensive indicator of crude oil fundamentals is neutral, and the latest signal was negative from September 10th to 11th. The current forward - looking indicator of crude oil fundamentals is also neutral, and the latest signal was positive only on September 16th [18]. - **US autumn maintenance and distillate performance**: As of September 12th, the US refinery operating rate decreased by 1.6% to 93.3% month - on - month, indicating the start of the traditional autumn maintenance. Distillate demand decreased instead of increasing during the traditional autumn harvest season, and inventory increased during the period of declining refinery operating rate, which is contrary to the seasonal trend [21]. - **Summary of September report views of major energy institutions**: The three institutions did not significantly adjust the demand side, but IEA and EIA increased the supply forecast. EIA expects Brent crude oil prices to fall significantly in the next few months [22]. - **Fed's September meeting**: The Fed cut interest rates by 25BP to 4% - 4.25% in September, in line with market expectations. The dot - plot in September showed that the doves gradually dominated. There are obvious contradictions in this meeting, highlighting internal differences within the Fed [23][26]. - **Russia - Ukraine situation**: The Russia - Ukraine peace talks have stagnated, but there may be a turning point. Trump said a cease - fire agreement may be near. Ukraine's increased attacks on Russian energy facilities led to a short - term rise in oil prices [27]. - **North American hurricane forecast**: According to NOAA, the probability of this year's hurricane activity exceeding the normal level is 60%, but it is relatively calm compared to last year. Currently, there are no hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico, and no potential cyclones are expected to form in the key areas of the Gulf of Mexico in the next 7 days [29]. 3.3 Price, Spread, Cracking - **Crude oil futures and spot trends**: Various charts show the trends of crude oil futures and spot prices, including different types of crude oil and related indicators such as net long positions in futures and options [32][34][37]. - **Crude oil futures structure and spreads**: Charts display the structure of crude oil futures (such as the prices of different contract months) and various spreads (monthly spreads, cross - market futures spreads, cross - market spot spreads, etc.) [40][43][46]. - **Saudi OSP**: Saudi Arabia adjusted its official selling prices (OSP) for different regions and different grades of crude oil in October compared to September [56]. - **Refined product prices and cracking**: Charts show the prices and cracking spreads of refined product futures and spot in different regions (US, Europe, Asia, etc.) [61][63][66]. 3.4 Supply - Demand Inventory Balance Sheet - **Global crude oil supply**: It includes the supply of OPEC, non - OPEC, and the total global supply. Data shows the historical and predicted values of these supplies [82]. - **Non - OPEC and OPEC supply details**: Details of non - OPEC supply from countries like the US, the former Soviet Union, China, and Brazil, as well as OPEC supply (including production, capacity, and supply from major countries and exempt countries) are presented [85][88][91]. - **Global rig count**: Information on the number of rigs in the US, Canada, and globally, as well as the number of US oil rigs and related production indicators [97][99]. - **Refinery unit shutdown volume**: Data on the shutdown volume of CDU and FCC units globally, in the US, Northwest Europe, and Asia [102][104]. - **Global crude oil demand**: It includes the demand of OECD and non - OECD regions and the total global demand, with historical and predicted values [106]. - **Inventory data**: Inventory data for the US, OECD, and other regions (such as Europe, Japan, ARA, Singapore, and China) are provided [114][117][119]. - **EIA balance sheet**: The EIA balance sheet shows the supply, consumption, balance, and balance changes of global crude oil from 2025 to 2026 [134]. 3.5 EIA Weekly Report and Others - **EIA weekly report main data**: It includes data on crude oil production, commercial crude oil inventory, refinery operating rate, and total crude oil chain inventory [149]. - **Supply data**: Data on the production of crude oil, gasoline, distillates, jet fuel, residual fuel oil, propane - propylene, and their yields are presented [152][155].

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's interest rate decision in September is expected to show significant internal divisions among its members [1] Group 1: Dovish Members - Dovish members such as Waller, Bowman, Daly, and the likely confirmed nominee Milan may advocate for further rate cuts [1] Group 2: Hawkish Members - Hawkish members including Harmack, Bostic, Musalim, and Schmidt emphasize the risks associated with inflation [1] Group 3: Potential Outcomes - Even if a 25 basis point rate cut occurs in the September meeting, there may still be dissenting votes within the committee [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the challenges faced by the Federal Reserve, particularly the pressure from President Trump and dissent within the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) regarding interest rate decisions [1][2][3]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Internal Dynamics - Dudley highlights that the dissent during the recent FOMC meeting is a significant event, marking the first time since 1993 that multiple members opposed a decision to maintain interest rates [1]. - The dissenting votes from two Trump-appointed members, Bowman and Waller, are seen as an exaggeration of internal divisions within the Fed [3][4]. - Dudley emphasizes that the influence of President Trump over Powell is limited, as the Supreme Court has ruled that the Fed Chair can only be removed for "just cause," which does not include the issues raised by Trump [2][3]. Group 2: Future of Federal Reserve Leadership - Even if Trump appoints Powell's successor, Dudley argues that the new chair may not fully comply with presidential demands, especially if they conflict with the Fed's statutory mission [3]. - Dudley suggests that it would be surprising if Trump could appoint more than two or three FOMC members during his current term, limiting his control over the committee [3][4]. Group 3: Public Perception and Credibility - Dudley asserts that the recent criticisms of Powell and the Fed's policies are overstated, particularly regarding the Fed's role in addressing climate change, which he believes falls within its core financial stability functions [5]. - He argues that the Fed's efforts during the 2008 financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic to stabilize markets should be praised rather than criticized, reinforcing the importance of the Fed's independence [6].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the internal disagreements within the Federal Reserve, particularly regarding the recent dissent from two board members against maintaining interest rates, suggesting that these disagreements are exaggerated and do not significantly undermine Powell's authority [1][3][4]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Internal Dynamics - Dudley highlights that the dissent from board members Waller and Bowman is a rare occurrence, marking the first time since 1993 that multiple members have opposed a decision [3]. - The article emphasizes that Trump's influence over Powell is limited, as the Supreme Court has ruled that the Fed Chair can only be removed for "just cause," which does not include the issues raised by Trump [4][5]. - Dudley argues that even if Trump appoints Powell's successor, that individual may not necessarily follow Trump's directives, especially if they conflict with the Fed's statutory mission [5][6]. Group 2: Implications of Recent Dissent - The dissent from Waller and Bowman is viewed as a coincidence, as both are Trump appointees, and their opposition does not damage Powell's credibility [6][7]. - Dudley notes that typically, FOMC members do not publicly oppose the Chair unless there is a significant disagreement on policy direction, which was not the case in this instance [6][7]. - The article concludes that the Fed's efforts during the 2008 financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic, as well as its recent success in lowering inflation without triggering a recession, should be recognized rather than criticized [7].

Core Viewpoint - The internal divisions within the Federal Reserve have been exaggerated, and the recent actions of two board members do not undermine Chairman Powell's position [1] Summary by Relevant Sections Federal Reserve Leadership - Dudley suggests that Waller's call for interest rate cuts is motivated by his ambition to succeed Powell as Chairman, while Bowman is acting in her supervisory capacity as Vice Chair [1] Critique of Monetary Policy - Dudley has expressed criticism of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy framework established in 2020, highlighting flaws and the inadequate consideration of the costs and benefits of quantitative easing [1] Defense of Powell's Position - Despite his criticisms, Dudley believes that the attacks on potential successors to Powell are somewhat excessive [1]

Core Viewpoint - The internal divisions within the Federal Reserve have been exaggerated, and recent actions by two board members do not undermine Chairman Powell's position [1] Group 1 - Dudley suggests that Waller's call for interest rate cuts is motivated by his ambition to succeed Powell as Chairman, while Bowman is acting in her supervisory capacity as Vice Chair [1] - Dudley acknowledges his criticisms of the Federal Reserve, including flaws in the 2020 monetary policy framework and the inadequate consideration of the costs and benefits of quantitative easing [1] - Despite his criticisms, Dudley believes that the attacks on potential successors to Powell are somewhat excessive [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has decided to pause interest rate cuts as expected by the market [1][10]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Decision - The FOMC members, including Powell, supported maintaining the current interest rates, while Waller and Bowman advocated for a 25 basis point cut [2][9]. - The statement removed the phrase indicating that economic uncertainty had diminished and reiterated that uncertainty remains high, changing the description of economic growth from "steady expansion" to "moderate growth in the first half of the year" [3][18][20]. - The decision to pause interest rates marks the fifth consecutive meeting without action, following three rate cuts totaling 100 basis points since last September [10][22]. Group 2: Internal Disagreements - This meeting revealed the largest internal disagreement among Fed officials since the rate cut cycle began, with two officials voting against the decision to maintain rates [4][15]. - The dissenting votes from Waller and Bowman highlight a fracture in consensus regarding the impact of tariffs on the economy [4][17]. - Economists view the statement as more dovish than expected, increasing the likelihood of a rate cut in September [5][12]. Group 3: Economic Outlook - The Fed's statement emphasized that economic uncertainty remains high and noted a slowdown in economic growth during the first half of the year [18][20]. - The labor market appears robust, but inflation remains above target, which traders interpreted as unfavorable for immediate rate cuts [13][24]. - The Fed plans to continue reducing its holdings of U.S. Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities, with a slower pace of balance sheet reduction [21][22].