严梓桑（联系人） 春节后下游复工， PP反弹强度较大 聚烯烃周报 2026/02/28 0755-23375123 yanzs@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03149203 张正华（能源化工组） 0755-23375333 zhangzh@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F0270766 交易咨询号： Z0003000 CONTENTS 目录 01 周度评估及策略推荐 04 聚乙烯供给端 07 聚丙烯供给端 02 期现市场 05 聚乙烯库存&进出口 08 聚丙烯库存&进出口 03 成本端 06 聚乙烯需求端 09 聚丙烯需求端 01 周度评估及策略推荐 周度评估及策略推荐 聚烯烃周度策略 【行情资讯】 政策端：OPEC+存在"温和"增产预期，聚烯烃跟随原油价格震荡。 估值：聚乙烯周度涨幅（现货＞期货＞成本），聚丙烯周度涨幅（现货＞期货＞成本）。 成本端：上周WTI原油上涨0.35%，Brent原油上涨0.71%，煤价上涨3.83%，甲醇上涨2.38%，乙烯上涨0.21%，丙烯上涨1.24%，丙烷 上涨6.57%。成本端反弹。 供应端：PE产能利用率87.64%，环比下降-0.72%，同比去年下降-1.17%，较 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 • LLDPE概述： • 利多 • 1、成本支撑 • 2、地缘溢价原油上涨 • 利空 • 1、下游需求偏弱 聚烯烃早报 2026-2-26 大越期货投资咨询部 朱天一 从业资格证号：F3020542 投资咨询证号： Z0021831 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我 司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 • LLDPE概述： • 1. 基本面：宏观方面，官方1月制造业PMI为49.3%，较上月回落0.8个百分点，落入收缩区间。 中东美伊局势升级，原油上涨，地缘政治溢价明显，支撑聚烯烃成本。美最高法院裁定特朗普关 税违法，其立刻宣布对全球加征15%进口关税，制品未来出口可能受影响。国内方面，3月两会可 能的刺激政策、特朗普来访前中美的谈判博弈均有可能增加市场对需求预期。供需端，农膜方面， 多数企业尚未复工，包装膜企业低负荷逐渐复工，管材方面受天气制约复工仍受限。当前LL交割 品现货价6650（+10），基本面整 ...

大越期货投资咨询部 朱天一 从业资格证号：F3020542 投资咨询证号： Z0021831 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我 司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 • LLDPE概述： • 1. 基本面：宏观方面，官方1月制造业PMI为49.3%，较上月回落0.8个百分点，落入收缩区间。 中东美伊局势升级，原油上涨，地缘政治溢价明显，支撑聚烯烃成本。美最高法院裁定特朗普关 税违法，其立刻宣布对全球加征15%进口关税，制品未来出口可能受影响。国内方面，3月两会可 能的刺激政策、特朗普来访前中美的谈判博弈均有可能增加市场对需求预期。供需端，农膜方面， 多数企业尚未复工，包装膜企业低负荷逐渐复工，管材方面受天气制约复工仍受限。当前LL交割 品现货价6600（-0），基本面整体中性； • 2. 基差： LLDPE 2605合约基差-44，升贴水比例-0.7%，偏空； • 3. 库存：PE综合库存36.7万吨（-0），偏多； • 4. 盘面： LLDPE主力合约20 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 聚烯烃早报 2026-2-9 大越期货投资咨询部 朱天一 从业资格证号：F3020542 投资咨询证号： Z0021831 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我 司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 • LLDPE概述： • 1. 基本面：宏观方面，官方1月制造业PMI为49.3%，较上月回落0.8个百分点，落入收缩区间。 OPEC+2月1日部长级会议重申去年11月2日决定，因季节性需求疲软暂停2026年第一季度的增产计 划。当前原油回归震荡，前期因受伊朗等地缘政治扰动影响，走势波动大，聚烯烃跟随波动偏大。 供需端，临近春节，农膜方面，多数企业停工，整体订单少，包装膜企业同样多数停工。当前LL 交割品现货价6620（-130），基本面整体中性； • 2. 基差： LLDPE 2605合约基差-192，升贴水比例-2.8%，偏空； • 3. 库存：PE综合库存40.3万吨（+5.4），偏多； • 4. 盘面： LL ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The repeated negotiations between the US and Iran have led to significant fluctuations in crude oil prices, causing polyolefins to follow suit. The overall profit of polyolefins has decreased significantly, and there are no new production projects before the 05 contract. The profit of BOPP in the demand side has recovered, and the order volume is better than the same period. Therefore, a positive spread trading opportunity may emerge between PP2605 and PP2609 [17]. - The next - month forecast shows that the reference oscillation range for polyethylene (L2605) is (6700 - 7000), and for polypropylene (PP2605) is (6600 - 6900) [17]. - The strategy recommendation is to go long on the spread between PP2605 - 2609 at low prices [18]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Valuation**: Repeated US - Iran negotiations have led to significant fluctuations in crude oil, and polyolefins have followed the oscillations [16]. - **Cost - end**: WTI crude oil rose 14.02%, Brent crude oil rose 14.43%, coal prices remained unchanged at 0.00%, methanol fell - 3.36%, ethylene rose 10.15%, propylene rose 11.04%, and propane rose 4.98%. In the context of weak supply and demand, the cost - end has a greater impact [16]. - **Supply - end**: PE capacity utilization was 87.03%, a month - on - month increase of 4.42%, a year - on - year decrease of - 1.81%, and a decrease of - 9.28% compared to the five - year average. PP capacity utilization was 74.90%, a month - on - month increase of 0.03%, a year - on - year decrease of - 5.82%, and a decrease of - 19.23% compared to the five - year average. There are no new capacity plans for the polyolefin 2605 contract [16]. - **Import and Export**: In December, domestic PE imports were 1.3299 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 25.21% and a year - on - year increase of 4.62%. PP imports were 205,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of - 4.83% and a year - on - year decrease of - 4.83%. The export season has arrived. In December, PE exports were 92,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.27% and a year - on - year increase of 58.30%. PP exports were 230,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.89% and a year - on - year increase of 29.81% [16]. - **Demand - end**: The downstream开工 rate of PE was 33.73%, a month - on - month decrease of - 18.15% and a year - on - year increase of 59.86%. The downstream开工 rate of PP was 49.84%, a month - on - month decrease of - 5.25% and a year - on - year increase of 59.34%. It is the seasonal off - season, and the overall开工 has no highlights. However, the profit of BOPP is better than in previous years, and the order volume is also prominent, which may become an important marginal variable on the PP demand side [17]. - **Inventory**: PE production enterprise inventory was 379,700 tons, a month - on - month inventory reduction of - 3.97% and a year - on - year inventory reduction of - 30.25%; PE trader inventory was 23,200 tons, a month - on - month inventory reduction of - 20.62% and a year - on - year inventory reduction of - 8.83%; PP production enterprise inventory was 415,800 tons, a month - on - month inventory reduction of - 11.10% and a year - on - year inventory reduction of - 33.57%; PP trader inventory was 183,200 tons, a month - on - month inventory reduction of - 10.50% and a year - on - year inventory reduction of - 15.03%; PP port inventory was 63,700 tons, a month - on - month inventory reduction of - 10.41% and a year - on - year inventory reduction of - 11.89% [17]. 2. Futures and Spot Market - Multiple charts are provided to show the term structure, price, basis, spread, trading volume, open interest, and other information of LLDPE and PP contracts, as well as the spread between different varieties such as LL - PP, PP - 1.2PG, etc., and the import and export price differences and volumes of LLDPE and PP [34][47][63][65]. 3. Cost - end - The oil - based cost has rebounded slightly. Multiple charts show the prices of WTI crude oil, thermal coal, methanol, propane, etc., as well as the production margins and capacity utilization rates of PDH, MTBE, alkylation oil, etc. [79][81][83][84]. 4. Polyethylene Supply - end - The production raw material proportion and annual proportion of PE are presented. There are multiple planned PE production projects in 2026, with a total of 500,000 tons already put into production and 5.2 million tons yet to be put into production. The capacity utilization rate and maintenance loss volume of PE are also shown [125][127][132]. 5. Polyethylene Inventory & Import and Export - Charts show the total inventory, production enterprise inventory, two - oil inventory, trader inventory, import volume, and export volume of PE [140][141][144][149]. 6. Polyethylene Demand - end - The downstream demand proportion and terminal demand proportion of PE are presented. The CPI, downstream demand cumulative year - on - year, downstream total开工 rate, and inventory - related data of PE are also shown [156][158][160]. 7. Polypropylene Supply - end - The production raw material proportion and annual proportion of PP are presented. There are multiple planned PP production projects in 2026, with 0 tons already put into production and 4.37 million tons yet to be put into production. The capacity utilization rate and maintenance loss volume of PP are also shown [175][177][180]. 8. Polypropylene Inventory & Import and Export - Charts show the total inventory, two - oil inventory, trader inventory, port inventory, export volume, and export destination proportion of PP [194][195][200]. 9. Polypropylene Demand - end - The downstream demand proportion and terminal demand proportion of PP are presented. The downstream total开工 rate, order days, and inventory - related data of PP are also shown [206][208][210].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The market sentiment has cooled down. For PE, the supply is expected to increase while the demand is in the off - season, and the cost and capital sentiment are the main drivers of the market. For PP, the cost support is strengthening, but the demand is still weak, and the de - stocking pressure may limit the rebound space [4][5] - For trading strategies, it is recommended to wait and see for LLDPE, and cautiously buy PP on dips for hedging. The LLDPE - PP spread should be shorted when it is high [6] Summary by Directory 1. Polyolefin Basis Structure - The L主力合约 closed at 6899 yuan/ton (-36), and the PP主力合约 closed at 6709 yuan/ton (-28). The LL North China spot was 6760 yuan/ton (-40), the LL East China spot was 6880 yuan/ton (-20), and the PP East China spot was 6520 yuan/ton (+0). The LL North China basis was -139 yuan/ton (-4), the LL East China basis was -19 yuan/ton (+16), and the PP East China basis was -189 yuan/ton (+28) [2] 2. Production Profit and Operating Rate - PE operating rate was 84.7% (+3.1%), and PP operating rate was 76.0% (+0.4%). PE oil - based production profit was 233.6 yuan/ton (+129.4), PP oil - based production profit was -386.4 yuan/ton (+129.4), and PDH - based PP production profit was -665.0 yuan/ton (+50.8) [2] 3. Polyolefin Non - Standard Price Difference - Not provided in the content 4. Polyolefin Import and Export Profits - LL import profit was 377.4 yuan/ton (+109.5), PP import profit was -379.7 yuan/ton (-3.8), and PP export profit was -67.0 US dollars/ton (-10.2) [2] 5. Polyolefin Downstream Operating Rate and Downstream Profits - PE downstream agricultural film operating rate was 36.3% (-0.6%), PE downstream packaging film operating rate was 45.0% (-3.2), PP downstream plastic weaving operating rate was 42.0% (-0.6), and PP downstream BOPP film operating rate was 64.0% (+0.5) [3] 6. Polyolefin Inventory - Not provided in the content

徐绍祖（联系人） 投产错配叠加利润修复， 逢低做多PP5-9价差 聚烯烃周报 2026/01/24 18665881888 xushaozu@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03115061 交易咨询号： Z0022675 CONTENTS 目录 01 周度评估及策略推荐 04 聚乙烯供给端 07 聚丙烯供给端 02 期现市场 05 聚乙烯库存&进出口 08 聚丙烯库存&进出口 03 成本端 06 聚乙烯需求端 09 聚丙烯需求端 01 周度评估及策略推荐 周度评估及策略推荐 估值：聚乙烯周度跌幅（现货＞期货＞成本），聚丙烯周度跌幅（现货＞期货＞成本）。 成本端：上周WTI原油下跌-2.26%，Brent原油下跌-1.92%，煤价下跌-2.14%，甲醇下跌-1.10%，乙烯上涨3.06%，丙烯上涨0.98%， 丙烷下跌-0.33%。成本端止跌反弹。 供应端：PE产能利用率86.54%，环比上涨6.11%，同比去年上涨1.00%，较5年同期下降-6.15%。PP产能利用率75.31%，环比下降- 1.70%，同比去年下降-1.12%，较5年同期下降-13.89%。PE新增产能落地，供应端压力较大。 进出口：12月 ...

聚烯烃日报 | 2026-01-22 下游淡季需求偏弱，继续拖累价格走势 策略 单边：LLDPE中性，PP中性；宏观扰动减弱，市场情绪降温，市场重新回归基本面交易，短期或偏弱震荡为主 跨期：无 市场要闻与重要数据 价格与基差方面，L主力合约收盘价为6666元/吨（+26），PP主力合约收盘价为6485元/吨（+24），LL华北现货为6540 元/吨（+0），LL华东现货为6650元/吨（-50），PP华东现货为6410元/吨（+0），LL华北基差为-126元/吨（-26），LL 华东基差为-16元/吨（-76）， PP华东基差为-75元/吨（-24）。 上游供应方面，PE开工率为81.6%（-2.1%），PP开工率为75.6%（+0.1%）。 生产利润方面，PE油制生产利润为85.3元/吨（-100.9），PP油制生产利润为-444.7元/吨（-100.9），PDH制PP生产利 润为-644.4元/吨（-15.9）。 进出口方面，LL进口利润为95.8元/吨（-27.1），PP进口利润为-403.7元/吨（+3.0），PP出口利润为-58.3美元/吨（-0.4）。 下游需求方面，PE下游农膜开工率为36.9% ...

行业 聚烯烃日报 日期 2026 年 1 月 21 日 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03134307 能源化工研究团队 研究员：彭婧霖（聚烯烃） 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油燃料油） 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 研究员：刘悠然（纸浆） 研究员：冯泽仁（玻璃纯碱） 请阅读正文后的声明 每日报告 | 表1：期货市场行情 | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 单位： ...

期货交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1285号 华联期货聚烯烃周报 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 周度观点及策略 供应压力仍较大，承压调整 20260118 萧勇辉 交易咨询号：Z0019917 从业资格号：F03091536 0769-22110802 审核：邓丹，从业资格号: F0300922，交易咨询号：Z0011401 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 基本面概述 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 ◆ 库存：据隆众资讯统计：本周，中国聚乙烯生产企业样本库存量预计：37万吨左右，库存预计由跌 转涨；中国聚丙烯生产企业库存量预计：42万吨左右，较本期下降。 ◆ 供应：据隆众资讯统计：本周，广东石化、福 ...