Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - LPG is expected to experience short - term weak and volatile trends due to OPEC+ production increase expectations [1]. - Propylene is likely to operate weakly in the short term as the support from spot supply and demand weakens [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content 3.1 Fundamental Data - **Futures Prices**: PG2510 closed at 4,376 with a 0.18% daily increase and 4,368 at night with a - 0.18% decrease; PG2511 closed at 4,307 with a 0.23% daily increase and 4,292 at night with a - 0.35% decrease; PL2601 closed at 6,408 with a 0.25% daily increase and 6,370 at night with a - 0.59% decrease; PL2602 closed at 6,443 with a 0.41% daily increase and 6,406 at night with a - 0.57% decrease [2]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: For PG2510, trading volume was 65,228 (a decrease of 2210) and open interest was 65,734 (an increase of 6); for PG2511, trading volume was 16,201 (a decrease of 2153) and open interest was 39,981 (an increase of 888); for PL2601, trading volume was 2,036 (a decrease of 1138) and open interest was 9,659 (an increase of 35); for PL2602, the spread was 10 (a change of 2 compared to the previous day) [2]. - **Price Spreads**: The spread between Guangzhou domestic gas and PG10 contract was 124 (previous 82); between Guangzhou imported gas and PG10 contract was 284 (previous 222); between Shandong propylene and PL01 contract was 152 (previous 213); between East China propylene and PL01 contract was 67 (previous 183); between South China propylene and PL01 contract was 67 (previous 83) [2]. - **Industrial Chain Data**: PDH operating rate was 73.1% (previous 73.0%), MTBE operating rate was 62.2% (previous 63.5%), and alkylation operating rate was 46.8% (previous 49.0%) [2]. 3.2 Trend Intensity - LPG trend intensity is 0, and propylene trend intensity is 0. The range of trend intensity is from - 2 to 2, with - 2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish [8]. 3.3 Market Information - **CP Paper Goods**: On September 5, 2025, the price of propane in October CP paper goods was 545 dollars/ton, up 3 dollars/ton from the previous trading day; the price of butane was 519 dollars/ton, up 2 dollars/ton from the previous trading day. The price of propane in November CP paper goods was 553 dollars/ton, up 3 dollars/ton from the previous trading day [9]. - **Domestic PDH Device Maintenance Plans**: Multiple companies such as Henan Huasong New Material Technology Co., Ltd., Jiangsu Yanchang Zhongran Chemical Co., Ltd. have PDH device maintenance plans, with some starting from 2023 and some in 2025, and some end - times are still undetermined [10]. - **Domestic LPG Factory Device Maintenance Plans**: Many production enterprises including Zhenghe Petrochemical, Huaxing Petrochemical have maintenance plans, with different start and end times and loss volumes [11].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints The report focuses on the fundamentals of LPG and propylene, including futures prices, trading volumes, positions, spreads, and industry data. It also provides market information such as CP paper prices and domestic device maintenance plans [1][2][7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Prices**: PG2510 closed at 4,368 yesterday with a -1.09% daily increase, and 4,388 in the night session with a 0.46% increase; PG2511 closed at 4,297 yesterday with a -1.13% daily increase, and 4,319 in the night session with a 0.51% increase; PL2601 closed at 6,392 yesterday with a -0.36% daily increase, and 6,391 in the night session with a -0.02% increase; PL2602 closed at 6,417 yesterday with a -0.51% daily increase, and 6,424 in the night session with a 0.11% increase [2]. - **Trading Volume and Positions**: For PG2510, the trading volume yesterday was 67,438, an increase of 13,302 from the previous day, and the position was 65,728, a decrease of 5,811 from the previous day; for PG2511, the trading volume was 18,354, an increase of 4,182 from the previous day, and the position was 39,093, an increase of 1,791 from the previous day; for PL2601, the trading volume was 3,174, a decrease of 446 from the previous day, and the position was 9,624, an increase of 663 from the previous day; for PL2602, the trading volume was 8, an increase of 3 from the previous day, and the position was 872, an increase of 5 from the previous day [2]. - **Spreads**: The spread between Guangzhou domestic gas and the PG10 contract was 82 yesterday, compared to 14 the day before; the spread between Guangzhou imported gas and the PG10 contract was 222 yesterday, compared to 84 the day before; the spread between Shandong propylene and the PL01 contract was 213 yesterday, compared to 215 the day before; the spread between East China propylene and the PL01 contract was 183 yesterday, compared to 160 the day before; the spread between South China propylene and the PL01 contract was 83 yesterday, compared to 60 the day before [2]. - **Industry Data**: The PDH operating rate this week was 73.0%, the same as last week; the MTBE operating rate was 63.5%, the same as last week; the alkylation operating rate was 46.8%, compared to 49.0% last week [2]. 3.2 Trend Intensity The trend intensity of LPG is 0, and the trend intensity of propylene is 0. The trend intensity ranges from -2 to 2, with -2 indicating the most bearish and 2 indicating the most bullish [6]. 3.3 Market Information - **CP Paper Prices**: On September 5, 2025, the October CP paper price for propane was 542 US dollars per ton, unchanged from the previous trading day; the price for butane was 517 US dollars per ton, an increase of 2 US dollars per ton from the previous trading day. The November CP paper price for propane was 550 US dollars per ton, a decrease of 1 US dollar per ton from the previous trading day [7]. - **Domestic PDH Device Maintenance Plans**: Multiple companies have PDH device maintenance plans, with some starting in 2023 and others in 2025, and some end times are still undetermined [8]. - **Domestic LPG Factory Device Maintenance Plans**: Many LPG factories have device maintenance plans, with some starting in 2024 and others in 2025, and some end times are still undetermined [9].

Market Overview - On August 5, PTA futures experienced low-level narrow fluctuations, with a slight improvement in the spot trading atmosphere. The basis was weak, and trading was mainly based on negotiations, with a small number of polyester factories making sales. Mainstream suppliers had some sales, with August cargo trading at a discount of 12 to 25 yuan/ton, and prices negotiated in the range of 4650 to 4660 yuan/ton. September transactions were at par and slightly above the September futures [1] Profitability - As of August 5, the PTA spot processing fee was around 140 yuan/ton, while the processing fee for TA2509 futures was 271 yuan/ton [2] Supply and Demand - Supply: As of August 1, PTA operating load decreased to 72.6%, a drop of 7.3%. - Demand: As of August 1, polyester operating load slightly decreased to approximately 88.1%, a decline of 0.6%. On August 5, the price of polyester filament showed a slight downward adjustment, with overall sales being sluggish. Current inventory levels at filament factories are manageable, and prices are mainly adjusting slightly with raw materials. Terminal loads are temporarily maintained, awaiting the "Golden September and Silver October" period. Future attention will be on crude oil prices and the initiation of the peak season [3] Market Outlook - With low processing fees, there will be an increase in PTA plant maintenance in August. The supply and demand situation for PTA is expected to improve compared to previous expectations. However, with the commissioning of new PTA facilities by Helun Petrochemical and continued weak new orders from terminals, the medium-term supply and demand outlook for PTA is weak. Additionally, oil prices are under pressure due to OPEC+ production increase expectations. Short-term PTA is expected to experience weak fluctuations, but as market macro sentiment gradually stabilizes, there may be emotional support for PTA. Strategies include exiting TA short positions and monitoring support around 4600, as well as rolling back TA9-1 operations and expanding low PTA processing fees around 250 [4]

Group 1 - International crude oil prices are under pressure, with WTI trading around $66.90 per barrel, down over 2% from the previous trading day, and Brent crude futures closing at $68.64, down 2.21% [1] - Market sentiment is cautious due to concerns over global economic growth stemming from President Trump's tariff policies and the critical turning point in OPEC+ production policies [1][3] - The upcoming trade measures set to take effect on August 1 have raised investor worries about the potential suppression of global trade activity and economic growth, which could negatively impact oil demand [3] Group 2 - OPEC+ is expected to further ease voluntary production cuts in September, with eight member countries anticipated to gradually restore production capacity, indicating a potential oversupply in the global market [3][4] - The Federal Reserve's high interest rate policy is increasing borrowing and investment costs, indirectly suppressing oil demand by limiting the expansion willingness of energy-intensive industries [3][4] - The combination of high interest rates and impeded global trade growth is creating a "double pressure" scenario on oil prices, leading to a potential short-term downward risk [4]

Group 1 - International oil market showed narrow fluctuations with Brent crude oil prices slightly rising to $67.12 per barrel and WTI falling to $65.40 per barrel, as market participants await OPEC+ meeting outcomes on August production policies [1] - Asian manufacturing PMI data provided short-term support for oil prices, indicating a recovery in manufacturing activities in major Asian economies, which may boost oil demand [3] - Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have eased following a pause in conflict between Iran and Israel, reducing concerns over supply disruptions [4] Group 2 - Market sentiment is dominated by expectations of OPEC+ increasing production, with a potential rise of 411,000 barrels per day in August, as Saudi Arabia's June crude exports surged by 450,000 barrels per day [5] - U.S. crude oil inventories increased by 680,000 barrels, reinforcing expectations of a supply surplus if confirmed by EIA data [5] - U.S. monetary policy and trade tensions are also influencing oil prices, with upcoming non-farm payroll data expected to impact Fed rate cut expectations [6] Group 3 - Technical analysis indicates a stalemate between bulls and bears, with WTI prices oscillating around the $65 mark and key support at $64.20 and resistance at $66.80 [8] - The oil market is currently in a tug-of-war between OPEC+ production increase expectations and recovering Asian demand, with OPEC+ decisions and Fed policy signals being critical variables for future price movements [10]

Report Information - Report Title: Liquefied Petroleum Gas Weekly Report [1] - Report Date: May 25, 2025 [1] - Analyst: Chen Xinchao [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints - The futures market is oversold, and short - term support is strengthening [5] - The expectation of OPEC+ production increase from May 17 to May 23 pressured oil prices, weakening the cost side of PG, and the overall market was weak [5] - The overall demand support is insufficient, and the price is further pressured downwards. It is recommended to closely monitor the subsequent PDH device and logistics dynamics [5] Summary by Directory 1. Overview - From May 17 - 23, OPEC+ production increase expectation suppressed oil prices, weakening the PG cost side. As of May 23, the AFEI propane index MA5 dropped 2.13% to $541.05/ton; the US Gulf MB price MA5 dropped 2.26% to $388.47/ton; the CIF price of South China propane refrigerated cargo MA5 was $626/ton, down $5.4/ton or 0.86% from the previous average [5] - In terms of supply, domestic LPG production increased 1.09% month - on - month to 509,600 tons, mainly due to a 2.7% increase in civil gas production; propane import arrivals decreased 37.42% month - on - month to 375,800 tons; port inventory decreased 3.83% month - on - month to 3,094,300 tons (East China 1,443,300 tons / - 6.96%, South China 614,000 tons / + 4.6%) [5] - In terms of demand, the domestic propane dehydrogenation unit operating rate this week was 61.15%, up 3.17 percentage points month - on - month. Next week, the PDH units of Qingdao Jinneng Phase II and Ningbo Formosa Plastics are expected to resume operation, so the domestic PDH operating rate is expected to continue to rise [5] 2. Price & Spread - The report presents multiple price and spread charts, including LPG and propane futures and spot prices, term spreads, and regional basis prices, as well as historical data on regional quotes, premiums, and freight rates [8][11][13] 3. Supply 3.1 US Exports - Total exports decreased, exports to China increased slightly, and exports to Japan and South Korea decreased significantly [26] 3.2 Middle East Exports - Overall exports decreased with regional differentiation [32] 3.3 Imports in China, India, Japan, and South Korea - Imports in China and India increased, while those in Japan and South Korea decreased slightly [40] 3.4 Domestic LPG Production - Total production was 509,600 tons (+ 1.09%), and civil gas production was 207,000 tons (+ 2.7%) [45] 3.5 Domestic Propane Supply - This week, China's propane supply was 411,300 tons, a 35.48% month - on - month decrease. Domestic refinery commodity volume was 35,500 tons, a 4.05% decrease from last week. International ship arrivals were 375,800 tons, mainly in South China [49] 3.6 Domestic Inventory - Civil gas in East China and ports in South China saw inventory accumulation, while civil gas in South China and ports in East China saw inventory reduction. Propane in Shandong had a slight inventory increase [50] 4. Demand - The PDH operating rate was 61.15% (+ 3.17), and the MTBE operating rate was 55.35% (- 0.74) [53]