Group 1 - International crude oil prices are under pressure, with WTI trading around $66.90 per barrel, down over 2% from the previous trading day, and Brent crude futures closing at $68.64, down 2.21% [1] - Market sentiment is cautious due to concerns over global economic growth stemming from President Trump's tariff policies and the critical turning point in OPEC+ production policies [1][3] - The upcoming trade measures set to take effect on August 1 have raised investor worries about the potential suppression of global trade activity and economic growth, which could negatively impact oil demand [3] Group 2 - OPEC+ is expected to further ease voluntary production cuts in September, with eight member countries anticipated to gradually restore production capacity, indicating a potential oversupply in the global market [3][4] - The Federal Reserve's high interest rate policy is increasing borrowing and investment costs, indirectly suppressing oil demand by limiting the expansion willingness of energy-intensive industries [3][4] - The combination of high interest rates and impeded global trade growth is creating a "double pressure" scenario on oil prices, leading to a potential short-term downward risk [4]

Group 1 - International oil market showed narrow fluctuations with Brent crude oil prices slightly rising to $67.12 per barrel and WTI falling to $65.40 per barrel, as market participants await OPEC+ meeting outcomes on August production policies [1] - Asian manufacturing PMI data provided short-term support for oil prices, indicating a recovery in manufacturing activities in major Asian economies, which may boost oil demand [3] - Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have eased following a pause in conflict between Iran and Israel, reducing concerns over supply disruptions [4] Group 2 - Market sentiment is dominated by expectations of OPEC+ increasing production, with a potential rise of 411,000 barrels per day in August, as Saudi Arabia's June crude exports surged by 450,000 barrels per day [5] - U.S. crude oil inventories increased by 680,000 barrels, reinforcing expectations of a supply surplus if confirmed by EIA data [5] - U.S. monetary policy and trade tensions are also influencing oil prices, with upcoming non-farm payroll data expected to impact Fed rate cut expectations [6] Group 3 - Technical analysis indicates a stalemate between bulls and bears, with WTI prices oscillating around the $65 mark and key support at $64.20 and resistance at $66.80 [8] - The oil market is currently in a tug-of-war between OPEC+ production increase expectations and recovering Asian demand, with OPEC+ decisions and Fed policy signals being critical variables for future price movements [10]

Report Information - Report Title: Liquefied Petroleum Gas Weekly Report [1] - Report Date: May 25, 2025 [1] - Analyst: Chen Xinchao [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints - The futures market is oversold, and short - term support is strengthening [5] - The expectation of OPEC+ production increase from May 17 to May 23 pressured oil prices, weakening the cost side of PG, and the overall market was weak [5] - The overall demand support is insufficient, and the price is further pressured downwards. It is recommended to closely monitor the subsequent PDH device and logistics dynamics [5] Summary by Directory 1. Overview - From May 17 - 23, OPEC+ production increase expectation suppressed oil prices, weakening the PG cost side. As of May 23, the AFEI propane index MA5 dropped 2.13% to $541.05/ton; the US Gulf MB price MA5 dropped 2.26% to $388.47/ton; the CIF price of South China propane refrigerated cargo MA5 was $626/ton, down $5.4/ton or 0.86% from the previous average [5] - In terms of supply, domestic LPG production increased 1.09% month - on - month to 509,600 tons, mainly due to a 2.7% increase in civil gas production; propane import arrivals decreased 37.42% month - on - month to 375,800 tons; port inventory decreased 3.83% month - on - month to 3,094,300 tons (East China 1,443,300 tons / - 6.96%, South China 614,000 tons / + 4.6%) [5] - In terms of demand, the domestic propane dehydrogenation unit operating rate this week was 61.15%, up 3.17 percentage points month - on - month. Next week, the PDH units of Qingdao Jinneng Phase II and Ningbo Formosa Plastics are expected to resume operation, so the domestic PDH operating rate is expected to continue to rise [5] 2. Price & Spread - The report presents multiple price and spread charts, including LPG and propane futures and spot prices, term spreads, and regional basis prices, as well as historical data on regional quotes, premiums, and freight rates [8][11][13] 3. Supply 3.1 US Exports - Total exports decreased, exports to China increased slightly, and exports to Japan and South Korea decreased significantly [26] 3.2 Middle East Exports - Overall exports decreased with regional differentiation [32] 3.3 Imports in China, India, Japan, and South Korea - Imports in China and India increased, while those in Japan and South Korea decreased slightly [40] 3.4 Domestic LPG Production - Total production was 509,600 tons (+ 1.09%), and civil gas production was 207,000 tons (+ 2.7%) [45] 3.5 Domestic Propane Supply - This week, China's propane supply was 411,300 tons, a 35.48% month - on - month decrease. Domestic refinery commodity volume was 35,500 tons, a 4.05% decrease from last week. International ship arrivals were 375,800 tons, mainly in South China [49] 3.6 Domestic Inventory - Civil gas in East China and ports in South China saw inventory accumulation, while civil gas in South China and ports in East China saw inventory reduction. Propane in Shandong had a slight inventory increase [50] 4. Demand - The PDH operating rate was 61.15% (+ 3.17), and the MTBE operating rate was 55.35% (- 0.74) [53]