Financing Trends - In October, net financing through corporate bonds reached CNY 246.9 billion, an increase of CNY 148.2 billion year-on-year[3] - Stock financing added CNY 69.6 billion, up CNY 41.2 billion year-on-year, marking eight consecutive months of year-on-year growth[3] - Trust loans, entrusted loans, and undiscounted bank acceptance bills collectively decreased by CNY 108.5 billion, a reduction of CNY 35.8 billion year-on-year[3] Credit and Loan Performance - New RMB loans in October were CNY 220 billion, down CNY 280 billion year-on-year, with the loan balance growth rate falling to approximately 6.5%[4] - Household loans decreased by CNY 360.4 billion, with short-term loans down CNY 286.6 billion and medium to long-term loans down CNY 70 billion[4] - Corporate loans increased by CNY 350 billion, primarily supported by bill financing, which net increased by CNY 500.6 billion, up CNY 331.2 billion year-on-year[4] Monetary Supply and Growth Rates - The stock of social financing grew by 8.5% year-on-year, a slight decrease of 0.2 percentage points from September[4] - M2 growth rate was 8.2%, down from 8.4% in September, while M1 growth rate fell to 6.2% from 7.2%[4] - The M2-M1 gap slightly increased to 2.0%, compared to 1.2% in the previous month, indicating a continued trend of liquidity preference[6] Deposit Dynamics - Total deposits increased by approximately CNY 610 billion in October, a year-on-year increase of only CNY 10 billion[6] - Household deposits decreased by CNY 1.34 trillion, while non-financial corporate deposits fell by CNY 1.09 trillion[6] - Non-bank financial institution deposits rose by CNY 1.85 trillion, indicating a "deposit migration" phenomenon[6]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In October, the domestic economic growth continued the slowdown trend of the third quarter, with some economic indicators significantly affected by the external environment. The injection of 50 billion yuan in new policy - based financial instruments may boost investment in the fourth quarter, and the annual economic growth target of 5% is expected to be achieved. Overseas, the US government shutdown ended, but there may be a lack of some employment and inflation data in October, and the employment market's downward risk has increased. The expectation of a Fed rate cut in December has significantly decreased. - The overall fundamental data in October was weak, with indicators such as exports, social financing, and social retail sales declining to varying degrees. The inflation level rebounded slightly, but its sustainability remains to be observed. The economy is expected to continue a weak recovery in the fourth quarter. The central bank will maintain a moderately loose policy tone, with limited room for further monetary easing this year. In the short - term, interest rates may fluctuate within a narrow range [101][102]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Market Review - **Performance of Treasury Bond Futures Contracts**: The 30 - year TL2512 contract rose 0.18%, while the 10 - year T2512, 5 - year TF2512, and 2 - year TS2512 contracts fell 0.03%, 0.03%, and 0.02% respectively. The trading volume of TS and TF contracts increased, while that of T and TL contracts decreased. The open interest of TS, TF, T, and TL contracts all decreased [13][30]. - **Performance of Underlying Bonds**: The yields of 1 - 7Y treasury bonds rose by 0.25 - 1.5bp, while the 10Y and 30Y yields fell by 0.4bp and 0.6bp to 1.81% and 2.15% respectively [9]. 2. News Review and Analysis - **Domestic News**: In October, the expansion of domestic demand policies continued to show results. CPI rose 0.2% month - on - month and 0.2% year - on - year, and core CPI rose 1.2% year - on - year. PPI rose 0.1% month - on - month and fell 2.1% year - on - year. The State Council issued measures to promote private investment. The cumulative social financing scale in the first ten months increased by 3.83 trillion yuan year - on - year. From January to October, real estate investment decreased by 14.7% year - on - year. In October, industrial added value increased by 4.9% year - on - year, fixed - asset investment decreased by 1.62%, social retail sales increased by 2.9% year - on - year, and the unemployment rate decreased by 0.1 percentage points [33][34]. - **Overseas News**: From October 1 to 25, the US private sector lost 45,000 jobs. The US government shutdown ended, but there may be a lack of some employment and inflation data in October, and the economic loss caused by the shutdown was estimated at $15 billion per week [35][101]. 3. Chart Analysis - **Spread Changes** - **Yield Spread**: The spread between 10 - year and 5 - year yields, and between 10 - year and 1 - year yields narrowed. - **Contract Spread**: The spread between 2 - year and 5 - year, and between 5 - year and 10 - year contract spreads widened. - **Near - far Month Spread**: The near - far month spreads of 10 - year, 30 - year, and 5 - year contracts narrowed, while that of the 2 - year contract widened slightly [43][49][60]. - **Treasury Bond Futures Main Position Changes**: The net short position of the top 20 positions in the T contract decreased slightly [66]. - **Interest Rate Changes**: Overnight, 1 - week, and 2 - week Shibor rates rose, while the 1 - month Shibor rate fell. The DR007 weighted average rate rebounded to around 1.47%. The yields of treasury bonds weakened, with 1 - 7Y yields rising by 1.5 - 3.0bp, and 10Y and 30Y yields rising by 1.8bp and 1.4bp to 1.81% and 2.16% respectively [70]. - **Bond Issuance and Maturity**: This week, the total bond issuance was 148.1511 billion yuan, the total repayment was 99.4987 billion yuan, and the net financing was 48.6524 billion yuan [83]. - **Market Sentiment** - **Exchange Rate**: The central parity rate of the RMB against the US dollar was 7.0825, up 11 basis points this week, and the spread between offshore and on - shore RMB widened. - **US Bond Yield and VIX**: The 10 - year US bond yield fluctuated, and the VIX index rose significantly. - **A - share Risk Premium**: The 10 - year treasury bond yield declined, and the A - share risk premium declined slightly [87][93][98]. 4. Market Outlook and Strategy - **Domestic Outlook**: In October, domestic economic growth continued to slow down, with some economic indicators affected by the external environment. The injection of 50 billion yuan in new policy - based financial instruments may boost investment in the fourth quarter, and the annual economic growth target of 5% is expected to be achieved. - **Overseas Outlook**: The US government shutdown ended, but there may be a lack of some employment and inflation data in October. The employment market's downward risk increased, and the expectation of a Fed rate cut in December decreased significantly. - **Overall Outlook**: The economic data in October was weak, inflation rebounded slightly, and the economy is expected to continue a weak recovery in the fourth quarter. The central bank will maintain a moderately loose policy, with limited room for further monetary easing. In the short - term, interest rates may fluctuate within a narrow range [101][102].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the banking industry, indicating an expected investment return exceeding the market benchmark by over 15% in the next 6-12 months [1]. Core Insights - In October 2025, new RMB loans amounted to 220 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 280 billion, with a growth rate of 6.5%, down 0.1 percentage points from the end of September [1][2]. - The total social financing scale in October was 815 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 597 billion, with a growth rate of 8.5%, down 0.2 percentage points from the end of September [1][2]. - The report highlights a seasonal slowdown in credit expansion due to insufficient demand, with corporate production activities experiencing a seasonal decline influenced by holiday periods and uncertainties from US-China tariff frictions [2][3]. Summary by Sections Loan Growth and Social Financing - New RMB loans in October were 220 billion, significantly lower than the expected 460 billion, reflecting a weak demand environment [2]. - Cumulatively, since the beginning of the year, new RMB loans totaled 15 trillion, a year-on-year decrease of 1.6 trillion, indicating a low credit issuance sentiment in the second half of the year [2][3]. Credit Demand and Economic Activity - The manufacturing PMI for October was 49%, indicating a contraction in manufacturing activity, with both production and demand indices weakening [2]. - The report suggests that the weak demand environment is likely to persist, with a projected total new loan issuance of 16.5 trillion for the year, down 1.6 trillion year-on-year [3]. Policy and Future Outlook - The report identifies potential areas for stable credit issuance, including the expansion of policy financial tools and support for specific consumption loans [3]. - It emphasizes the importance of stabilizing credit supply to support economic recovery, particularly in the context of local government debt and consumption policies [3]. Social Financing Structure - In October, the social financing scale showed a continued downward trend, with a notable decrease in government bond issuance contributing to the slowdown [33][34]. - The report indicates that the growth rate of M2 and M1 has been declining, with M2 growth at 8.2% and M1 at 6.2% in October [40][41]. Loan Composition - The report details the composition of loans, with corporate loans showing a mixed performance, while residential loans experienced a significant decline [25][26]. - The weighted average interest rate for new corporate loans remained at 3.1%, indicating stable pricing in a low-demand environment [29][30]. Conclusion - Overall, the report presents a cautious outlook for the banking industry, highlighting the need for policy support to stimulate credit demand and economic activity in the coming months [3][34].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Credit demand is generally weak, and the loan growth rate is expected to continue to slow. The bond market will maintain a volatile recovery trend, and the 10-year Treasury bond rate (old active bond) is expected to recover to the pre-adjustment level of 1.6%-1.65% by the end of the year [1][6]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Credit Situation - In October, the new credit was 22 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 28 billion yuan, and the new credit scale has decreased year-on-year for four consecutive months. Except for bill financing, the new scale of medium and long-term loans for residents and enterprises decreased year-on-year to varying degrees, and short-term corporate loans were the same as the previous value [1][9]. - In terms of corporate credit, the new corporate credit in October was 35 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 22 billion yuan, mainly due to bill financing. The new medium and long-term corporate loans were 3 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 14 billion yuan; short-term corporate loans were -19 billion yuan, the same as the previous year; bill financing was 50.06 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 33.12 billion yuan [2][9]. - In terms of household loans, the new household loans in October were -36.04 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 52.04 billion yuan in reduction. The new medium and long-term household loans were -7 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18 billion yuan in reduction; short-term household loans were -28.66 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 33.56 billion yuan in reduction. Short-term loans have decreased year-on-year for four consecutive months, and real estate sales have continued to decline since mid-October, indicating weak social terminal demand [2][9]. Social Financing Situation - The growth rate of social financing further declined. In October, the new social financing was 81.49 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 59.71 billion yuan. The year-on-year growth rate of social financing stock was 8.5%, 0.2 percentage points lower than the previous month. The issuance of government bonds was stable, with a new scale of 48.93 billion yuan, a month-on-month decrease of 70 billion yuan and a year-on-year decrease of 56.02 billion yuan [3][13]. - Assuming that 1 trillion yuan of next year's issuance quota is issued in the fourth quarter of this year, it is estimated that government bonds from November to December will still decrease year-on-year. By the end of the year, the social financing growth rate may drop to about 8.3% [3][13]. Money Supply Situation - In October, the year-on-year growth rate of M1 dropped from 7.2% to 6.2%, partly due to the base effect and partly related to the outflow of household deposits. The two-year compound growth rate of M1 in October was 1.85%, basically the same as the previous value. The year-on-year growth rate of M2 was 8.2%, 0.2 percentage points lower than the previous month [4][17]. Deposit and Loan Situation - In October, new deposits were 61 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1 billion yuan. The stock index broke through 4,000 points on October 29, and household and corporate deposits may have flowed to non-bank institutions. Household deposits decreased by 1.34 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 770 billion yuan in reduction; corporate deposits decreased by 1.09 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 355.3 billion yuan in reduction; non-bank deposits increased by 1.85 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 770 billion yuan [5][19]. - The overall deposit growth rate in October was 8.0% year-on-year, the same as the previous month, while the loan growth rate dropped slightly by 0.1 percentage points to 6.5%. The gap between deposit and loan growth rates widened to 1.5 percentage points, indicating a continued asset shortage [5][19]. Bond Market Situation - The broad-spectrum interest rate continued to decline, and the bond market continued to recover in a volatile manner. The year-on-year growth rates of social financing, M1, and M2 all declined in October, and household credit decreased, indicating a weak recovery in the current fundamentals. The bond market is expected to maintain a volatile recovery trend, and the interest rate is expected to decline more smoothly in the second half of the fourth quarter [6][21].

Core Viewpoint - The financing structure of enterprises in China is shifting from reliance on bank loans to a more diversified approach that includes bonds and stocks, reflecting changes in the economic and financial landscape [1][2]. Financing Structure - As of October 2025, the cumulative increase in social financing reached 30.9 trillion yuan, which is 3.83 trillion yuan more than the same period last year. The increase in RMB loans to the real economy was 14.52 trillion yuan, a decrease of 1.16 trillion yuan year-on-year [1]. - Net financing through corporate bonds was 1.82 trillion yuan, an increase of 136.1 billion yuan year-on-year, while government bonds saw net financing of 11.95 trillion yuan, up 372 billion yuan year-on-year [1]. - Other financing methods, excluding loans, accounted for over half of the total social financing increase this year, with government bonds nearing a 40% share [1]. Monetary Policy and Economic Indicators - M2 (broad money) balance reached 335.13 trillion yuan at the end of October, with a year-on-year growth of 8.2%. M1 (narrow money) balance was 112 trillion yuan, growing by 6.2% year-on-year [4]. - The M1-M2 spread was -2%, indicating a shift towards more funds being converted into demand deposits, reflecting increased business activity and consumer demand [4]. - The overall economic performance remains stable, with the composite PMI output index at 50.0% and the non-manufacturing business activity index at 50.1%, indicating expansion [6]. Loan Growth and Structure - In the first ten months, RMB loans increased by 14.97 trillion yuan, a decrease of 1.55 trillion yuan compared to the previous year. The loan interest rates have remained low, indicating a generally sufficient supply of credit resources [10]. - Corporate loans increased by 350 billion yuan in October, with a year-on-year increase of 220 billion yuan. However, there was a decrease in short-term loans by 190 billion yuan and a slight increase in medium to long-term loans [10]. - Residential loans decreased by 360.4 billion yuan in October, with both short-term and medium to long-term loans showing significant year-on-year reductions [11]. Future Outlook - The focus of future policies will be on boosting consumption and expanding domestic demand, with an emphasis on increasing social security spending, stabilizing employment, and improving income levels [12]. - The implementation of supportive policies for small and medium-sized enterprises is expected to enhance credit demand and improve the overall credit structure [12].

广义货币（M_2）和社会融资规模增速保持较高水平、贷款规模合理增长、信贷结构持续优化、贷 款利率保持低位……中国人民银行11月13日公布的10月份金融统计数据报告显示，适度宽松的货币政策 持续显效，货币金融条件相对宽松，我国经济高质量发展有着坚实支撑。 融资渠道日益多元 初步统计，今年10月末社会融资规模存量为437.72万亿元，同比增长8.5%；前10个月社会融资规模 增量累计为30.9万亿元，比上年同期多3.83万亿元。 据市场人士测算，今年前10个月，政府债券累计发行规模约22万亿元，比去年同期多近4万亿元， 企业发债融资也高于去年同期。"国债和特殊再融资债券等政府债券发行进度较快、企业债券发行热度 较高，对社会融资规模增长形成重要支撑。"东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青表示，今年超长期特别国债 发行规模从去年的1万亿元扩大至1.3万亿元，首发时间比去年提前约一个月，发行完毕时间也相应提 前，体现出财政政策对经济增长及需求拉动的支持，也带动了社会融资规模增长。 中国民生银行首席经济学家温彬认为，加大政府债券发行规模，能够支持重大项目建设和国家重大 战略实施，助力扩大需求、支撑经济。同时，不少政府债券用于置换融 ...

Core Insights - The financing structure for enterprises in China is shifting from reliance on bank loans to a more diversified approach that includes bonds and stocks, reflecting changes in the economic and financial landscape [1][2] Financing Trends - In the first ten months of 2025, the total social financing scale increased by 30.9 trillion yuan, which is 3.83 trillion yuan more than the same period last year. The net financing from corporate bonds was 1.82 trillion yuan, and government bonds accounted for 11.95 trillion yuan [1] - Other financing methods, excluding loans, now account for over half of the total social financing growth, with government bond net financing nearing 40% [1] Monetary Policy and Economic Indicators - The M2 money supply reached 335.13 trillion yuan at the end of October, with a year-on-year growth of 8.2%, indicating a supportive monetary policy stance [3][5] - The M1 money supply also showed a year-on-year increase of 6.2%, reflecting improved business activity and consumer demand [4][5] Loan Dynamics - In the first ten months, RMB loans increased by 14.97 trillion yuan, which is a decrease of 1.55 trillion yuan compared to the previous year. Corporate loans are performing better than residential loans, which remain weak [7][8] - The demand for medium to long-term loans from enterprises is expected to improve due to recent policy measures aimed at supporting key industries and projects [7] Consumer Credit and Housing Market - Residential loans decreased by 3.604 trillion yuan, with both short-term and medium to long-term loans showing significant reductions. The overall credit demand from households remains fragile [8] - Recent adjustments in housing purchase policies in major cities have led to a slight increase in new home sales, but the market remains uneven, particularly in the second-hand housing sector [8] Future Outlook - The focus of future policies will be on boosting domestic demand and consumption, with an emphasis on improving living standards, stabilizing employment, and enhancing the consumer environment [9]

Group 1: Social Financing and Credit Trends - In October, new social financing (社融) amounted to 0.8 trillion RMB, a year-on-year decrease of 0.6 trillion RMB, primarily due to government bonds and credit constraints[3] - The year-on-year growth rate of social financing fell to 8.5%, while the credit growth rate under the social financing measure dropped to 6.3%[3] - New RMB loans in October were -20 billion RMB, reflecting a seasonal decline and a year-on-year decrease of 0.3 trillion RMB[12] Group 2: Government Bonds and Policy Tools - Government bond issuance in October was 0.5 trillion RMB, down 0.6 trillion RMB year-on-year, with net financing remaining negative since August[12] - The introduction of 500 billion RMB in new policy financial tools is expected to stimulate credit and non-standard financing, potentially driving total project investment over 7 trillion RMB[9] - The net financing of government bonds is projected to decline by 1.2 trillion RMB year-on-year in November and December, which may further impact social financing by 0.2 percentage points[3] Group 3: Monetary Supply and Economic Outlook - M1 growth rate fell to 6.2%, while M2 growth rate decreased to 8.2% in October[7] - The decline in social financing and M2 growth rates is viewed as a necessary phase in the transition to high-quality economic development[9] - Current low interest rates suggest that monetary policy tools should be used judiciously, with potential adjustments in Q4 and Q1 to stabilize growth[9]

广义货币（M_2）和社会融资规模增速保持较高水平、贷款规模合理增长、信贷结构持续优化、贷款利 率保持低位……中国人民银行11月13日公布的10月份金融统计数据报告显示，适度宽松的货币政策持续 显效，货币金融条件相对宽松，我国经济高质量发展有着坚实支撑。 融资渠道日益多元 综合融资成本下降是货币条件比较宽松的重要体现。招联首席研究员董希淼分析，近年来企业和居民融 资成本低位下行，说明货币条件比较宽松、资金供给比较充裕，实体经济有效融资需求得到了充分满 足。在适度宽松的货币政策带动下，社会综合融资成本持续下降，为经营主体纾困解难、注入信心，不 仅让企业有更多资金投入生产研发、稳步发展壮大，也有助于激发消费潜力、畅通经济循环。 随着明示企业贷款综合融资成本工作进一步推广，企业融资成本更加阳光透明，小微企业融资获得感持 续提升。山东烟台某物流公司因扩大业务规模，需要申请500万元贷款，企业通过填写《企业贷款综合 融资成本清单》后，评估费、抵押登记费、保险费等费用共计1420元均由银行承担，企业无需支付任何 附加费用，贷款综合融资成本较之前询价结果低0.4个百分点。 此外，随着消费贷贴息等政策落地见效，个人利息负担进一 ...

21世纪经济报道记者唐婧 伴随经济金融结构变迁，当前企业融资渠道已从过去更多依赖于银行贷款， 转变为综合运用债券、股票等更丰富的市场化融资方式。 11月13日，中国人民银行发布《2025年10月金融统计数据报告》，2025年前十个月社会融资规模增量累 计为30.9万亿元，比上年同期多3.83万亿元。其中，对实体经济发放的人民币贷款增加14.52万亿元，同 比少增1.16万亿元；企业债券净融资1.82万亿元，同比多1361亿元；政府债券净融资11.95万亿元，同比 多3.72万亿元。 可以看出，在今年以来的社会融资规模增量中，除贷款外的其他融资方式已经占比超过一半，政府债券 净融资占比已经接近四成。今年以来，国债、地方债和特殊再融资债券等政府债券发行进度较快、企业 债券发行热度较高，在对社融增长形成重要支撑的同时，也对扩内需、保民生、促发展发挥了积极作 用。 中国民生银行首席经济学家温彬告诉记者，社会融资规模的结构正在逐渐发生变化，单一的贷款指标， 已很难完整反映金融支持实体经济的全貌。特别是近两年，地方专项债置换融资平台贷款、中小银行改 革化险与中长期经济结构演变的趋势叠加，进一步阶段性下拉了贷款增长。因此， ...