未来楼市的基调，是用今天的钱去还以前的债。 大家好，我是孙少睡，这是我的第475篇文章。 很多计划2026年买房的人都在等一波大的。等一波2008年的棚改，或者等一波2016年的涨价去库存，或 者其他什么大招。 只要这种事能再来一次，楼市几乎所有问题就都能解决。但当然了，正是因为大家都想解套，这种事才 绝对不会来。 央行的数据，截至2025年10月底，社会融资规模存量是437.72万亿，同比增长8.5%。 对比一下，2008年四万亿刺激之后，社融增速猛增到过34%；2016年猛涨期也飙到过32%。跟那时候 比，现在的增速不值一提。 当然会有人说基数不一样了，但人们其实对大基数的增速反馈更迟钝，因为阈值已经拉高了，没有更大 的刺激，很难重塑更强的信心。 那么，前两次大放水的钱去哪了？很大一部分是被固定在了房地产上。单单这句话就值得细细品味。 因为放出来的钱，如果影响了社会实际所需要的量，那总归是要收回去的。如果能收回去，就通过消 费；如果暂时收不回去，就固定在资产上。 所以你知道，为什么楼市必须要涨，又为什么必须要跌了吗？一开始的涨价，避免了巨量货币直接冲进 消费市场，影响物价，影像稳定，影响出口。 但是古尔丹 ...

【导读】部分中小银行3个月大额存单利率跌破1% 2026年开年，存款市场再迎新变化。中国基金报记者发现，以"高息揽储"著称的中小银行已率先开启"降息"步伐，并有部分银行的3个月大额存单利率进 入"0字头"。 业内人士认为，下调高息存款利率是银行应对净息差收窄、维持稳健经营的必然选择。"存钱躺赚"的时代即将成为过去式，个人投资者需要改变理财思 维，通过多元资产配置，从"追求绝对高息"转向"构建收益风险比最优的组合"。 还有多家农商行的3个月存单利率仅略高于1%。例如，"巢湖农村商业银行对私大额存单3个月-2026年第0001期"起存金额为20万元，利率为1.1%。"衡南 农商银行个人大额存单2026年1期3M"起存金额为20万元，利率为1.1%。"弥勒农村商业银行2026年第3期个人大额存单3M"起存金额20万元，利率为 1.05%。 此外，淮北农村商业银行针对机构发行的"淮北农商银行3个月期限单位大额存单2026年第1期"，起存金额为1000万元，利率也仅为1%。 多重因素导致利率下调，"存钱躺赚"时代将结束 部分农商行3个月大额存单利率跌破1% 开年以来，多家中小银行相继下调了存款利率。例如，安徽新安银行宣 ...

【导读】部分中小银行 3 个月大额存单利率跌破 1% 中国基金报记者 张玲 2026 年开年，存款市场再迎新变化。中国基金报记者发现，以 " 高息揽储 " 著称的中小银 行已率先开启 " 降息 " 步伐，并有部分银行的 3 个月大额存单利率进入 "0 字头 " 。 业内人士认为，下调高息存款利率是银行应对净息差收窄、维持稳健经营的必然选择。 " 存 钱躺赚 " 的时代即将成为过去式，个人投资者需要改变理财思维，通过多元资产配置，从 " 追求绝对高息 " 转向 " 构建收益风险比最优的组合 " 。 部分农商行 3 个月大额存单利率跌破 1% 开年以来，多家中小银行相继下调了存款利率。例如，安徽新安银行宣布将于 1 月 16 日调 整储蓄存款产品利率，其中 2 年期定期存款利率下调 10 个基点至 2.25% ；濮阳中原村镇 银行的 3 个月期、 6 个月期、 2 年期定期存款利率则均大幅下调 30 个基点。 作为传统 " 揽储利器 " 的大额存单利率也进一步下行。中国货币网数据显示，截至 1 月 8 日，逾 30 家银行发布了 2026 年大额存单发行公告，多数银行的大额存单期限在一年期及 以下，三年期、五年期 ...

本文作者为创金合信基金首席经济学家魏凤春 新年伊始，万象更新。年前的首席视点指出年后的首席视点将会侧重术与器。也就是说，元旦新年之 后，我们将会从过去一个半月的"坐而论道"转向"起而行之"。其中隐含的意思是，再继续等待就有些靡 费时日了。通过之前的首席视点，我们对2026年资产配置的框架、逻辑和标的进行了详尽的分析，但这 只解决了趋势和结构的问题，择时的问题仍然需要相机而动。不仅如此，所有的策略都是预测，都需要 根据市场的变化进行完善和调整。这就意味着即使是坚定的价值投资者也需要考虑市场的波动，不仅如 此，在资产管理进入工业化与智能化时代，投资者的需求已经从单一资产加杠杆、一味追求收益，向多 元资产体系下的风险与收益平衡转变了。我们的首席视点认为短期重于长期，实际上是将趋势、结构与 节奏融合的判断逻辑。 一年之计在于春，历史的走势表明年初的投资布局对于全年来讲具有明显的指向作用。比如2025年第一 期首席视点我们认为需要"走出蘅皋"，指出配置思维要从低风险资产舒适区转向拥抱产业变革机遇。但 这并不是完全对应的，2020年以来，年初资产走势对全年配置具有中等强度的正相关指向，但需结合黑 天鹅、政策转向、流动性反 ...

Group 1: Trade Surplus Overview - In the first 11 months of 2025, China's goods trade surplus reached $1.08 trillion, marking the first time any country has surpassed the $1 trillion mark in trade surplus [2] - The strong export performance is driven by key categories such as electromechanical products, which account for approximately 59% of total exports, and new growth areas like electric vehicles and lithium batteries, which continue to see double-digit growth [3][4] - The import demand in 2025 is weak, with nearly zero growth (0.2%), contributing to the maximum trade surplus [4] Group 2: Factors Affecting Perception of Surplus - The perception of the surplus not translating into noticeable benefits for the public can be attributed to several factors, including the "external circulation" of funds where companies are hesitant to convert foreign earnings into RMB [5] - A portion of profits is used to pay off debts rather than being reinvested domestically, indicating a deleveraging trend in the manufacturing sector [5] - Price wars in certain industries lead to profit dilution, making it difficult for companies to significantly increase employee wages despite high export volumes [5] Group 3: Sector-Specific Insights - The automotive sector is highlighted as a profitable area, with a mid-range electric vehicle sold in Europe generating significant revenue for Chinese manufacturers, despite various costs such as tariffs and logistics [5] - The future potential for higher-value exports, particularly in sectors like semiconductors, could lead to more substantial profits for Chinese companies [6] Group 4: Service Trade Developments - China's service trade has historically shown a significant deficit, but in 2025, the deficit narrowed to approximately $108 billion, a reduction of about 26% year-on-year [12][13] - Knowledge-intensive service trade constitutes about 38% of the total, with rapid growth in exports driven by international travel demand and foreign tourists visiting China [13] - The overall trend suggests that service trade may move towards a more balanced state in the future [14] Group 5: Economic Implications - The $1 trillion trade surplus reflects the efficiency of the production system and external structures rather than a direct increase in household income [15] - A portion of the foreign exchange earnings is allocated for stabilizing the currency, addressing external sanctions, and supporting essential imports, which delays immediate benefits to the domestic economy [15]

最低只需1年社保或个税缴纳，北京重磅出手！ 据北京市住房和城乡建设委员会消息，12月24日，北京市住房城乡建设委等4部门联合印发《关于进一 步优化调整本市房地产相关政策的通知》，《通知》明确为更好满足居民刚性住房需求和多样化改善性 住房需求，进一步优化调整住房限购政策。一是放宽非京籍家庭购房条件。将非京籍家庭购买五环内商 品住房的社保或个税缴纳年限，由现行的"3年"调减为"2年"；购买五环外商品住房的，由现行的"2 年"调减为"1年"。二是支持多子女家庭住房需求。二孩及以上的多子女家庭，可在五环内多购买一套商 品住房，即：京籍多子女家庭，可在五环内购买3套商品住房；在京连续2年缴纳社保或个税的非京籍多 子女家庭，可在五环内购买2套商品住房。通知自2025年12月24日起施行。 10月28日，《中共中央关于制定国民经济和社会发展第十五个五年规划的建议》全文发布。《建议》中 关于房地产部分提到加快构建房地产发展新模式、优化保障性住房供给、因城施策增加改善性住房供 给、建立房屋全生命周期安全管理制度等内容，同时在消费部分提出要"清理汽车、住房等消费不合理 限制性措施"。 58安居客研究院院长张波认为，当下国内居民住 ...

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming "15th Five-Year Plan" period is seen as a critical transition phase for wealth management in China, shifting from reliance on single asset appreciation to a focus on overall health and dynamic optimization of asset-liability balance, alongside recognition and allocation of frontier assets [1][6] Group 1: Changes in Household Asset-Liability Structure - Over the past decade, Chinese households have faced "threefold shocks" impacting their asset-liability balance: declining risk-free interest rates, adjustments in the real estate market, and bottlenecks in traditional financial product supply [3][4] - Approximately 70% of household assets are allocated in real estate, creating dual leverage risks for both residents and developers [3] Group 2: Policy Responses and Asset Management Industry Responsibilities - Recent policies from the central government aim to repair household asset-liability balances, with measures including innovative monetary tools and fiscal strategies to alleviate local debt risks and enhance household income [4] - The asset management industry is urged to enhance its professional capabilities to provide resilient financial products that meet the evolving needs of residents [4][6] Group 3: Future Directions and Innovations - The focus on household asset-liability health will drive economic growth, with real estate asset revitalization and the development of a multi-tiered pension system as key areas of focus [5] - The emergence of AI as a new asset class is highlighted, with personal data potentially being valued and converted into data asset equity, allowing individuals to share in the growth of related technology companies [5][6] - Long-term funds, such as pensions, should actively invest in AI and other new productive assets to enable residents to benefit from long-term investments [6]

Group 1 - The real estate sector experienced a significant surge on December 10, with the CSI 800 Real Estate Index rising over 4%, and major companies like Vanke A and Hainan Airport seeing gains of over 5% [1][4] - The only ETF tracking the CSI 800 Real Estate Index, the real estate ETF (159707), saw a remarkable rebound of over 4% in the afternoon, with a net subscription of 20 million units [1][4] - Data from the Shanghai E-House Real Estate Research Institute indicated that as of November, the cumulative transaction of second-hand homes in four first-tier cities reached 519,000 units, surpassing the same period in 2024 and breaking the 510,000 unit mark for the first time in four years [1][4] Group 2 - CITIC Securities predicts that 2026 may be a critical year for real estate companies to enter a balance sheet repair phase, with some firms potentially reaching a long-term profit bottom [2][6] - Companies that are likely to recover first are those with well-placed assets in good cities, operational investment properties, or financial assets with appreciation potential [2][6] - The real estate ETF (159707) is highlighted for its concentration on top-tier real estate firms, with over 90% of the weight in the top ten constituent stocks, indicating a strong focus on central state-owned enterprises and quality real estate companies [2][6]

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market supply and demand situation has improved, and adjustments are considered sufficient, with expectations for stabilization by 2026 [1] Group 1: Market Outlook - The year 2026 is anticipated to be a critical year for real estate companies to repair their balance sheets, with some companies potentially reaching the bottom of their profit cycles [1] - Companies that are the first to recover are likely to be those with well-positioned assets in good cities, operational investment properties, or financial assets with appreciation potential [1] Group 2: Investment Focus - There is a positive outlook for companies characterized by strong regions, good business models, and effective operations, referred to as the "three good companies" [1]

Group 1 - The overall sentiment in the real estate market is pessimistic, with new homes struggling to sell and many large private developers facing debt defaults [1] - In Weihai, all new projects observed were completed homes, with no pre-sale properties available, indicating a lack of buyer confidence [1] - The second-hand housing market is also weak, with significant price drops and low transaction volumes, leading to frustration among real estate agents [1] Group 2 - Major real estate companies are facing substantial debt burdens, with Evergrande and Country Garden among those with significant outstanding debt [2][3] - The debt levels of various developers are alarming, with Evergrande's total debt reaching approximately 1937.73 billion yuan, and Country Garden's at 971.5 billion yuan [2][3] - The restructuring of debts by companies like Sunac has only temporarily alleviated their financial issues, as they have lost access to future financing [1][6] Group 3 - The government has been actively supporting the securities market to stimulate economic growth, as the real estate sector requires long-term recovery [8] - The decline in consumer confidence is linked to the need for both developers and homeowners to repair their balance sheets after significant losses in property values [9] - The real estate market is expected to return to a more normalized state, with long-term implications for property prices and investment strategies [8][9] Group 4 - The demand for high-end properties in major cities like Beijing and Shanghai remains relatively strong, despite the overall market downturn [7] - The market for luxury apartments continues to attract wealthy buyers, indicating a potential divergence in demand based on property type and location [7] - The trend of declining prices in secondary markets is more pronounced, particularly in lower-tier cities, where transaction volumes have plummeted [12][14]