2025.11.21 本文字数：1612，阅读时长大约3分钟 作者 |第一财经 陈益刊 今年以来中国财政政策更加积极，财政支出保持一定力度，推动经济持续回升向好。 根据财政部最新数据测算，今年前10个月，广义财政（即全国一般公共预算和全国政府性基金预算）收 入约22.1万亿元，同比增长约0.2%；广义财政支出约30.7万亿元，同比增长约5.2%；广义财政支出超过 收入约8.6万亿元，同比增长约21%。 广义财政支出规模及增速，是衡量财政政策积极程度的关键指标。在今年以来广义财政收入基本与去年 同期持平情况下，广义财政支出保持5.2%的增速，明显高于收入增速。这说明积极财政政策发力，财 政支出保持一定力度。广义财政支出增速与前三季度经济增速（5.2%）持平，支持了经济平稳运行。 从财政支出结构来看，今年财政资金明显向民生领域倾斜，这也与今年政府工作报告提出推动更多资金 资源"投资于人"相契合。 与民生关联最为紧密的是全国一般公共预算账本。根据财政部数据，今年前10个月，全国一般公共预算 支出约22.6万亿元，同比增长2%。其中与民生关联最为紧密的社会保障和就业支出（3.8万亿元）、教 育支出（3.4万亿元）、卫 ...

"十五五"征程即将开启，放眼大江南北，"两重"建设正酣，一幅幅关乎未来的宏伟蓝图，正在神州 大地描绘。 在关乎生存发展的重点领域安全方面，相关建设蹄疾步稳，将发展规划变为现实，筑牢一道又一道 坚固防线。为端牢"中国饭碗"，粮食主产区推进高标准农田建设，让"藏粮于地"战略扎根沃土；为破 解"卡脖子"问题，健全新型举国体制，强化国家战略科技力量，将发展主动权握在自己手中；在网络空 间这个无形的战场上，以技术手段创新为抓手，不断提升新质战斗力，守卫"无形疆域"。 一边是"重大"，一边是"重点"，"两重"之重，重在国，也重在民。11月14日召开的国务院常务会议 提出，要把"两重"建设放在"十五五"全局中谋划和推进。 在国家重大战略的经纬线上，一系列突破正推动着高质量发展的进程。"未来之城"雄安新区拔节生 长，成为京津冀协同发展的重要支点；长三角地区加速联通，G60科创走廊持续推动科技与产业深度融 合，串联起区域内的创新资源；海南自贸港封关运作各项准备工作有序推进，彰显中国高水平对外开放 决心。 "'两重'建设的软硬结合，核心是实体工程项目'硬投资'与体制机制改革等'软建设'的深度协同，形 成相互赋能的有机整体。"杨赫 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the construction and engineering industry [9]. Core Insights - In October, narrow infrastructure investment decreased by 8.7%, with a month-on-month decline of 4.1 percentage points, while broad infrastructure investment fell by 8.1%, also with a month-on-month decline of 4.1 percentage points [2][6]. - The marginal weakening of infrastructure investment is evident, with the single-month growth rate for narrow infrastructure investment reaching its lowest since July 2021 [11]. - The report highlights that despite the current downturn, there remains fiscal space for potential growth in infrastructure investment by the end of the year [11]. Summary by Sections Economic Data - In October, narrow infrastructure investment saw a month-on-month decline of 8.7%, while broad infrastructure investment decreased by 8.1% [2][6]. - Year-to-date, narrow infrastructure investment has declined by 0.1%, while broad infrastructure investment has grown by 3.0%, with a month-on-month decrease of 1.6 percentage points [11]. Project Analysis - All project categories experienced year-on-year declines in investment for the month, with notable decreases in power (down 6.3%), transportation (down 10.1%), and water management (down 19.0%) [11]. - The report indicates that the construction industry’s PMI for October was 49.1%, reflecting a contraction for three consecutive months [11]. Fiscal Outlook - As of November 14, 2023, special bonds issued totaled 41,492 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 2,476 billion yuan, indicating room for further issuance [11]. - The report emphasizes the government's focus on high-quality development and the need to optimize investment structures to stimulate private investment [11].

11月14日，国务院总理李强主持召开国务院常务会议，研究深入实施"两重"建设有关工作，会议明确将 国家重大战略实施和重点领域安全能力建设置于"十五五"全局中谋划推进，为经济高质量发展筑牢支 撑、守住底线。 在业界看来，这场部署既立足当下需求，也着眼长远发展，凸显了"两重"建设作为经济发展"压舱石"的 核心价值。 超长期国债支持 会议提出，要把"两重"建设放在"十五五"全局中谋划和推进，牢牢把握战略性、前瞻性、全局性要求， 强化部门协同，注重软硬结合，推动国家重大战略深入实施、重点领域安全能力稳步提升。 一位财税人士对《中国经营报》记者表示，会议对"两重"建设提出战略性、前瞻性、全局性三个要求， 旨在扩大有效需求、提升产业结构和提升国家安全的韧性。其中，战略性聚焦国家长远发展方向，瞄准 经济结构优化升级关键领域；前瞻性要求立足未来趋势提前谋划，确保项目长期有效发挥作用；全局性 则强调统筹区域与领域协调，杜绝重复建设与资源浪费。 2024年《政府工作报告》首次提出发行超长期特别国债专项支持"两重建设"，规模约1万亿元。2025年 中央对"两重"建设继续加码，安排8000亿元专项资金，覆盖国家重大战略和安全能力建设 ...

人民财讯11月17日电，证券时报记者从财政部了解到，今年1—10月，全国政府性基金预算支出8.09万 亿元，增长15.4%，主要是各级财政持续加快债券资金使用，地方政府专项债券、超长期特别国债、中 央金融机构注资特别国债等资金共支出4.54万亿元(含以往年度结转债券支出)。 ...

Hot News - The Minister of Finance, Lan Fuan, stated that during the "15th Five-Year Plan" period, funds such as special bonds and ultra-long-term special treasury bonds will be used comprehensively to optimize government investment directions and encourage private capital to participate in major project construction; tax, social security, and transfer payments will be adjusted to optimize the income distribution structure and boost consumption; and work will be done to replace the existing implicit debts of local governments, with strict accountability for illegal debt-raising and false debt reduction [2] - The National Bureau of Statistics announced that in October, China's manufacturing PMI was 49%, a decrease of 0.8 percentage points from the previous month. The non-manufacturing PMI was 50.1, an increase of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month. The composite PMI output index was 50%, a decrease of 0.6 percentage points from the previous month [2] - The Minister of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, Ni Hong, pointed out that the real estate development, financing, and sales systems need to be reformed and improved. In terms of commercial housing sales, the spot sales system will be promoted to fundamentally prevent delivery risks; for pre-sales, the supervision of pre-sale funds will be standardized to protect the legitimate rights and interests of homebuyers [2] - The Dalian Commodity Exchange announced that soybean meal and corn series options contracts will be listed for trading on February 2, 2026 (i.e., the night session on January 30). The first batch of contracts will start with the series options contracts corresponding to soybean meal M2607 and corn C2607 [2] - The Ministry of Finance and the State Tax Administration issued an announcement on the tax policy for gold, which will be implemented from November 1, 2025, to December 31, 2027. Industry insiders believe that the policy further improves the existing gold market policy, better distinguishes the commodity and financial attributes of gold, and the adjustment of the VAT policy for gold purchased on the exchange is expected to make the gold market consumption and investment environment more transparent and healthy [3] Key Focus - Key commodities to focus on include urea, lithium carbonate, polysilicon, crude oil, and PVC [4] Holiday Overseas Performance Sector Performance - Non-metallic building materials had a 3.11% increase; precious metals had a 29.39% increase; oilseeds and oils had a 9.56% increase; non-ferrous metals had a 23.08% increase; soft commodities had a 2.66% increase; coal, coke, and steel mines had a 13.49% increase; energy had a 2.87% increase; chemicals had a 10.78% increase; grains had a 1.15% increase; and agricultural and sideline products had a 3.92% increase [4] Sector Positions - The document shows the changes in the positions of commodity futures sectors in the past five days, including Wind agricultural and sideline products, Wind grains, Wind chemicals, Wind energy, Wind coal, coke, and steel mines, Wind non-ferrous metals, Wind commodity composites, Wind soft commodities, Wind oilseeds and oils, Wind precious metals, and Wind non-metallic building materials [5] Performance of Major Asset Classes Equity - The Shanghai Composite Index had a daily decline of 0.81%, a monthly increase of 0.00%, and an annual increase of 17.99%; the SSE 50 had a daily decline of 1.15%, a monthly increase of 0.00%, and an annual increase of 12.17%; the CSI 300 had a daily decline of 1.47%, a monthly increase of 0.00%, and an annual increase of 17.94%; the CSI 500 had a daily decline of 0.74%, a monthly increase of 0.00%, and an annual increase of 28.04%; the S&P 500 had a daily increase of 0.26%, a monthly increase of 0.00%, and an annual increase of 16.30%; the Hang Seng Index had a daily decline of 1.43%, a monthly increase of 0.00%, and an annual increase of 29.15%; the German DAX had a daily decline of 0.67%, a monthly increase of 0.00%, and an annual increase of 20.34%; the Nikkei 225 had a daily increase of 2.12%, a monthly increase of 0.00%, and an annual increase of 31.37%; the UK FTSE 100 had a daily decline of 0.44%, a monthly increase of 0.00%, and an annual increase of 18.89% [6] Fixed Income - The 10-year treasury bond futures had a daily increase of 0.04%, an annual decrease of 0.22%; the 5-year treasury bond futures had a daily decline of -0.01%, a monthly increase of 0.00%, and an annual decrease of 0.45%; the 2-year treasury bond futures had a daily decline of -0.02%, a monthly increase of 0.00%, and an annual decrease of 0.42% [6] Commodity - The CRB commodity index had a daily increase of 0.59%, a monthly increase of 0.00%, and an annual increase of 1.96%; WTI crude oil had a daily increase of 0.50%, a monthly increase of 0.00%, and an annual decrease of -15.36%; London spot gold had a daily decline of -0.54%, a monthly increase of 0.00%, and an annual increase of 52.53%; LME copper had a daily decline of -0.23%, a monthly increase of 0.00%, and an annual increase of 24.03%; the Wind commodity index had a daily increase of 1.47%, a monthly increase of 0.00%, and an annual increase of 30.63% [6] Other - The US dollar index had a daily increase of 0.19%, a monthly increase of 0.00%, and an annual decrease of -8.07%; the CBOE Volatility Index had a daily increase of 3.13%, a monthly increase of 0.00%, and an annual increase of 0.52% [6] Main Commodity Trends - The document presents the trends of various commodities, including the Baltic Dry Index (BDI), CRB spot index, WTI crude oil, London spot gold, London spot silver, LME 3-month copper, CBOT soybeans, and CBOT corn, as well as the risk premium of the stock market [7]

Group 1: High-Level Dynamics - The People's Daily published a series of articles discussing the long-term stability and development logic of the Chinese economy, emphasizing the strong signals for stabilizing expectations and promoting development [1][5] - Xi Jinping attended the Global Women's Summit and delivered a keynote speech, highlighting the importance of women's development and proposing several initiatives to support this cause [10][11] - Premier Li Qiang hosted a State Council study session focused on enhancing standards to promote high-quality economic development [15][16] Group 2: Fiscal Policy - The issuance of 1.3 trillion yuan in ultra-long-term special government bonds was completed, with funds aimed at supporting major national strategies and enhancing safety capabilities in key areas [25][26] - The issuance scale increased by 300 billion yuan compared to 2024, with a faster pace and earlier issuance time to ensure funds are utilized effectively [25][26] Group 3: Monetary Policy - The central bank's financial data for September 2025 showed M1 growth at 7.2% and M2 growth at 8.4%, with a narrowing M2-M1 gap, indicating a shift towards more liquid deposits [31] - New social financing totaled 3.53 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year decrease, reflecting challenges in loan growth for both households and enterprises [31] Group 4: Regional Policy - The Yangtze River Delta region is enhancing urban agglomeration construction, with a focus on coordinated development and infrastructure connectivity [33][39] - A report on global marine city competitiveness highlighted Shanghai's leading position, emphasizing the city's economic vitality and port throughput [34] Group 5: Industrial Policy - Shanghai introduced measures to accelerate the cultivation of future industries, aiming to establish a number of leading enterprises and innovation clusters by 2030 [47][52] - A multi-departmental plan was released to promote service-oriented manufacturing innovation, targeting the establishment of standards and leading brands by 2028 [52][54] - The national industrial and information technology conference emphasized the importance of integrating technological and industrial innovation to enhance competitiveness [54]

Core Insights - The Ministry of Finance's Treasury Payment Center reported that in the first three quarters, local government special bonds, ultra-long-term special national bonds, and special national bonds for central financial institution capital injection totaled 4.21 trillion yuan, enhancing economic development momentum and promoting a sustained recovery in the economy [1] Group 1 - The total expenditure from various bond types reached 4.21 trillion yuan [1] - The funding is aimed at boosting economic development and supporting a positive economic recovery trend [1]

Group 1 - The 30-year government bond ETF from Bosera has seen a price increase of 0.60%, reaching 106.88 yuan as of October 17, 2025, with a weekly cumulative rise of 0.26% as of October 16, 2025 [3] - The trading volume for the 30-year government bond ETF was 5.37% during the day, with a total transaction value of 929 million yuan, and an average daily transaction of 3.939 billion yuan over the past week [3] - On October 17, government bond futures showed an increase, with the 30-year main contract rising by 0.41%, the 10-year by 0.06%, the 5-year by 0.04%, and the 2-year by 0.01% [3] Group 2 - The issuance of special long-term government bonds has concluded, with local special bonds net issued at 5.53 trillion yuan since the beginning of the year, with a total quota of 4.4 trillion plus 2 trillion yuan [4] - Institutions expect a significant decrease in the net selling of long-term bonds by banks, with a potential rush for 30-year bonds by insurance funds at the end of December [4] - The 30-year government bond ETF from Bosera has a current scale of 17.184 billion yuan, closely tracking the Shanghai Stock Exchange's 30-year government bond index [4]

Group 1 - The Ministry of Finance successfully issued 40 billion yuan of 20-year ultra-long-term special bonds, completing the issuance of 1.3 trillion yuan for the year [1] - In 2023, the issuance of ultra-long-term special bonds increased by 300 billion yuan compared to last year, with 800 billion yuan allocated to support 1,459 "dual heavy" construction projects [1] - An additional 500 billion yuan of ultra-long-term special bond funds is being used to support the implementation of "two new" policies, with 8,400 projects in various sectors benefiting [1] Group 2 - The last batch of 69 billion yuan for consumer product replacement subsidies was allocated before the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holidays, aiming to boost consumption in the fourth quarter [2] - As of October 14, over 670 billion yuan of new local government general bonds and over 3.7 trillion yuan of new local government special bonds have been issued, accounting for over 80% of the annual quota [2] - Despite a slowdown in government bond issuance in the fourth quarter, fiscal spending will still focus on key areas, with public budget expenditure reaching about 60% of the initial budget forecast [2] Group 3 - The Minister of Finance emphasized that fiscal policy has room for maneuver, indicating that there is still ample space for future fiscal policy actions [3] - Market institutions generally believe that the necessity for further expansionary fiscal policies within the year is not strong, suggesting a continuation of the current positive fiscal stance [3] - New policy financial tools are seen as having a "quasi-fiscal" nature, effectively supplementing capital for major projects and leveraging social investment [3]