Core Viewpoint - The recent volatility in gold prices has raised concerns among investors, with predictions indicating a potential drop to 600 yuan per gram by 2025 [1][2]. Group 1: Price Movements and Predictions - The spot gold price in Shanghai has fallen from 834.6 yuan per gram in April to 765 yuan per gram, with brand gold jewelry prices dropping below 900 yuan per gram [1]. - On July 8, spot gold experienced a significant drop of 1.02%, reaching a low of 3298.7 USD per ounce (approximately 780 yuan per gram), marking a 6% decline from the April peak of 3509 USD [2]. - Analysts predict that if gold prices fall below 3300 USD, it could trigger automatic stop-loss orders worth 20 billion USD, leading to panic selling [2]. Group 2: Influencing Factors - The probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September decreased from 78% to 63%, reducing the market's demand for gold as a safe haven [2]. - Internal divisions within the Federal Reserve regarding monetary policy are increasing, with "dovish" members advocating for rate cuts to combat inflation, while "hawkish" members warn of potential inflation from tariff policies [3]. - Geopolitical events, such as the Middle East drone attacks and rumors of a ceasefire in Ukraine, have shown to significantly impact gold prices, with the latter causing an 8% flash crash [5]. Group 3: Market Sentiment and Demand - The demand for gold jewelry is being affected by Trump's tariff policies, which are raising inflation but simultaneously suppressing consumer spending [5]. - In the domestic market, while the People's Bank of China is expected to increase gold reserves by 219 tons in 2024, the pace of accumulation is anticipated to slow down in 2025 due to high prices [5]. - Current gold jewelry prices include over 30% in brand premiums and processing fees, indicating that even if the base gold price drops to 600 yuan per gram, jewelry prices may not fall below 800 yuan per gram [6]. Group 4: Investment Strategies and Market Outlook - Goldman Sachs has revised its gold price forecast for the end of 2025 from 3100 USD to 3000 USD, while UBS recommends gradual accumulation at 3250 USD (approximately 730 yuan per gram) [6]. - Zijin Mining is increasing overseas gold mine acquisitions, suggesting that a price range of 700-750 yuan per gram is currently seen as a bottom [6]. - Investors who purchased gold at higher prices are facing difficult decisions, while those who entered the market at lower prices are relatively calm [6].

NYMEX铂主力合约走势图 数据来源：上海钢联 上海铂金周现场。 记者 曾庆怡 摄 郭晨凯 制图 ◎记者 曾庆怡 霍星羽 铂金，热起来了。 上海证券报记者在7月7日至10日举办的2025上海铂金周期间感受到，铂金热度已与去年截然不同。餐桌 上，收藏者把刚买的铂金纪念币放在手中来回把玩、爱不释手，并展示给同座的朋友；展台上，外国友 人端详着铂金首饰，通过翻译与店家沟通；活动间隙，贵金属贸易商告诉记者，铂金从去年的"无人问 津"转变为很多批发商的"香饽饽"，其拿货成本低于黄金，今年销量有显著增长……与之相对应的是， 今年5月下旬开始，铂金价格一路狂飙，年初至今涨幅约50%。 Wind数据显示，截至北京时间7月11日17点30分，NYMEX（纽约商业交易所）铂金期货价报1432.8美 元/盎司，相比年初（1月2日为949.1美元/盎司）上涨约51%。另据上海黄金交易所公布的数据，截至7 月11日收盘，上海黄金交易所现货铂金（Pt99.95）的收盘价为322.54元/克，相比1月2日的收盘价223.07 元/克，上涨约45%。 展望未来，铂金价格能否持续狂飙？专家认为，铂金短缺将在2025年持续，但多重因素交织下，铂 ...

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